43 ms·

Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

651 points by batmenace 7y ago

deugtniet 7y ago
Just to clarify the title: Trading was halted for 15 minutes.
- pureagave 7y ago
  Correct. 7% decline is a pause. If it drops 13% it will pause for another 15 minutes. If it drops 20% it will end trading for the day.
  - Waterluvian 7y ago
    I'm going to say it. It can't possibly collapse 20% in one day... can it?
    - deugtniet 7y ago
      Based on the rules it cannot drop _more_ than 20% in a day :-) There are examples of it happening in other countries though. Zimbabwe and Argentina come to mind for some crazy inflation and stock numbers.
      - JumpCrisscross 7y ago
        > Based on the rules it cannot drop _more_ than 20% in a day Asset pricing is not continuous. A single trade can take pricing from -18% to -X%, with X having any value between infinity and -100. The breaker triggers at -20%. If the market crosses at -18% and then trades -25%, that trade will cross and then trip the breaker.
    - MS90 7y ago
      Looks like it's only happened once, 22.61% on Oct 19, 1987. Even the 1929 crash wasn't that much, though it did drop about 24.5% over two days, Oct 28 and 29, 1929. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_daily_changes_in_the_Dow_Jones_Industrial_Average https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_daily_changes_...
      - vitaflo 7y ago
        The crash in 1987 is why they put these halting rules in place.
        jkachmar 7y ago
        I don’t believe this is correct. My understanding is that these automatic limit down rules were added in response to the flash crash in 2010, during which the Dow Jones lost 1000 points over the course of minutes.
        harambaebae69 7y ago
        This is incorrect, it was somewhere during/after the 2008 recession that these circuit breakers went into effect (because I remember they didn't exist at that time)
        findjashua 7y ago
        not exactly - circuit breaker was put in place after the 1987 crash, but the 3-tier system (7-13-20) went into effect only in 2013: https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Trading_curb https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Trading_curb
    - umanwizard 7y ago
      That's about how much it collapsed on Black Monday in 1987, so, yes, it can.
  - anm89 7y ago
    It's up what, 30 % over the last few months? The real economy didn't grow nearly that much. In terms of real value, the only way for the economy to take that degree of a hit in a day would be a natural disaster. But these numbers are mostly speculation, so yeah they can go up and down very fast minus techinal restrictions like these halts.
    - MuffinFlavored 7y ago
      S&P500 has wiped out all growth from 2019 at the moment and is headed lower.
      - anm89 7y ago
        Yes, correct. I should have clarified, before things started crashing, we were up 30% in a few months.
  - sandov 7y ago
    Wouldn't that incentivize people to sell before the pause/end of the trading day, creating a snowball effect?
    - azernik 7y ago
      It would indeed, but if it's an irrational panic or an algorithmic mess-up it also allows people to stop and think for a bit. It's a tradeoff, and the main goal is to reduce the extreme failures.
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
neural_thing 7y ago
Trade safe. Historic times. Wouldn't be surprised if all the volatility shorts blow up and the S&P goes down 20% in a session.
- cm2187 7y ago
  The volumes on Vix futures are a fraction of what they were two years ago. Vix is shooting up but I assume it is following the stock market rather than the other way round.
throwaway3157 7y ago
For those unaware, this is common practice -- it a control that is working as intended. The trading was halted for 15 minutes
- pacerwpg 7y ago
  When was the last time this happened?
  - spork12 7y ago
    election night 2016
    - dev-ns8 7y ago
      Actually not true. This is the first time ever these circuit breakers were triggered during regular trading hours. Even still, on election night, stock futures were only under the 'limit-down rule'. You could have still been buying futures while that restriction was in place, so this is very much different and unprecedented
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
  - marzell 7y ago
    Apparently in 1997, so it has been quite a while https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trading_curb#Instances_of_use https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trading_curb#Instances_of_us...
    - jacobush 7y ago
      Way before high frequency trading, to put some things in perspective.
- thisIsNotTrue 7y ago
  This is not at all a common practice.
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
Lagogarda 7y ago
first time since the 2016 U.S. presidential election after they fell more than the daily limit of 5%
- joosters 7y ago
  The daily limit is 20%, I believe? 7% = automatic 15 minute stop 13% = another 15 minute stop 20% = stop for rest of day
- gzu 7y ago
  Those were futures the night of the election... Futures have a hault at 5% Normal trading hours have the 7% stop
  - cesarb 7y ago
    And from what I read, the futures did halt at 5% yesterday. So it was already sort of expected that the 7% stop would be hit today.
aazaa 7y ago
This will be blamed on COVID-19, but the problems go much deeper. Last year the Fed lost control of the repo market. the event was widely discounted at the time as an end-of-tax-year fluke. It wasn't. Six month ago, the yield curve inverted. People who should have known better said "this time is different." Speculators have been trained over the course of 10+ years to buy the dip. The Fed has your back. What we're seeing is the beginning of the end of that resolve. The last time this happened was during the GFC. It's not normal, and it's probably not a one-time event, either.
- NikolaeVarius 7y ago
  So what are you shorting?
  - aguyfromnb 7y ago
    Why do you have to short anything? The idea was to get more defensive months ago. Long term treasuries are up almost 50% y-o-y. If you think it's easy to short things in a volatile market like this, then you've probably never tried to...
    - papito 7y ago
      I started getting defensive right after the election of 2016. Modern history does not have an example of you know which party going on a tax cutting, over-spending, self-dealing, deregulation binge that did not end in a catastrophe. Add to that complete lack of competency when it comes to dealing with a not self-made crisis (a matter of time), and only a chump would think the good times would keep on rolling. The market so far has absorbed the dumb trade war by pure optimism, and we only narrowly avoided a war with Iran. It all has been blind luck so far, and it just ran out.
  - vikramkr 7y ago
    Your everyday investor probably shouldn't be shorting in ultra high volatility periods like this. Markets spike for one day in the course of leading to a recession leads to a margin call and you can't post collateral, then you're done. Doesn't matter if it goes to zero a week after.
facethrowaway 7y ago
For reference, someone might want to post a chart of the gains the markets have made in the past 5 years. I would hardly call this a crash.
- tekkk 7y ago
  Hah not a crash? Well it kinda is, and if it keeps going further down it will definitely cause a recession. The oil price drop was a huge punch in the gut, and I wonder what happens to US oil production if it stays this low for longer. Or well any oil production that can't compete with these prices.
  - unlinked_dll 7y ago
    A crash over the coming days wouldn't cause a recession so much as reflect the start of one.
  - csomar 7y ago
    > I wonder what happens to US oil production if it stays this low for longer Probably go under?
  - bluGill 7y ago
    Almost nobody is drilling new oil wells, they stopped last year sometime. Almost nobody because there are still investors keeping one skeleton crew running just so they have expertise for when the oil price recovers. Once a well is drilled the cost to drill the well is a sunk cost. You keep pumping oil if the cost to run the pumps is less than the price you get. Most people with oil are large enough to shut down some wells to keep the price up a bit - they harm their own profit in the short term though and still need to sell enough oil to break even.
    - foota 7y ago
      OPEC has failed to reduce output to prop prices up, and they've crashed as a result.
beeschlenker 7y ago
Global stock markets have lost $6 trillion in value in six days. It possibly because Soros, Putin, and others are moving money out of the US so that it cannot be taken in lawsuits resulting from their involvement in the story below. Unless of course you believe it is because of COVID19 aka Coronavirus, a sickness with a 2.3% death rate. See below: http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-72000-covid-19-patients-finds-23-death-rate http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-720... Attorney General Barr is not resigning; not before President Trump does. Barr is the same as Mueller,Pelosi,Schiff, & Nadler: feign opposition to cover the true motive of obstruction to keep Trump in power. Supreme Court Justice Alito & FBI Deputy Director Wray also on board. See latest updates "Impeachment" Is A Diversion And Delay - Part II: Blocking of the "impeachment" witnesses was collusion planned before the new year. Listen to an FBI agent's disclosure from January 1, 2O2O here. The President was to resign late summer securing election for DNC. See latest updates. Here is the zip file, which was also made available in the 3Jan2O2O update. The file within is VID_20200101_201948.mp3. Turn up the volume and put on headphones. BB10Mp3Footage31Dec1Jan.zip 122.4mb https://drive.google.com/file/d/1IXOOhQhHybwky8Z5pGdr9ZXhWpIUazmi/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1IXOOhQhHybwky8Z5pGdr9ZXhWpI... The dialogue about the impeachment starts near the beginning. Having Biden in the White House is as good as Trump or anyone else in their organization. Obviously Schiff and Nadler pledged their allegiance to the organization by raping boys on the record, with their task being to drag out an impeachment designed to obstruct and delay any real efforts to remove the President, thus keeping Trump in power. The witness blocking was to cause an apparent uproar delaying things with legal actions until late Summer. Soon after, the President would resign, leaving any other candidate with not enough time or support to compete with an opportunistic Biden, who is as good as Trump or any other Illuminati friendly politician in the Presidency. 176 page PDF [last update: March|7|2O2O]: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1S7T_kDv48E40eHzus6CTXHxcm0W2qxVc/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1S7T_kDv48E40eHzus6CTXHxcm0W... Previously reported: \Wag The Dog: first was feigned impeachment hearings meant to obstruct, now an attack on Iranians in Iraq. Here is what they are trying to distract from & cover up to retain power. $100+ billion in bribes to the highest offices in this country. 915+ deaths from child rapes to prove loyalty! See the latest PDF updates: FBI Director Wray, AG Barr, SoD Shanahan, & SoS Pompeo each raped boys and were paid billions in bribes for a Soros & Koch funded child rape org. So did Trump & his "impeachment" team Nadler,Schiff,Mueller.So did media moguls Redstone,Murdoch,Moonves. What are they trying to set up? Who can arrest them since they are all bribed and in on it ? Their strategy to stay in every office and obstruct until forced to leave no matter what. Feigning impeachment: see page 13O. \\if;Download the video/audio file, put on headphones and turn up the volume. You will hear these people committing these crimes. Audio was broadcast into my apartment by outdated surveillance equipment illegally embedded within my walls. This very same technology was being used to broadcast me to the internet for five years without my consent. I own this footage. Please use this to prosecute all found within. Note:: I am obliviously speaking throughout the video, and it can be quite loud at times relative to the desired content. The are dozens more links, including these, that can be found in this PDF that was last updated on 7 Mar 2O2O: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1S7T_kDv48E40eHzus6CTXHxcm0W2qxVc/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1S7T_kDv48E40eHzus6CTXHxcm0W... All members of the "Illuminati"; "....an underground organization of homosexuals and child rapists..." (from pg 26: Barack Obama with Jack Dorsey). President Donald Trump: Demands a $4 billion dollar bribe here at 10:18am 4Jan2019: 3JanCh3_900-1100.avi https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Grdr8xF2psKNsuYlEnl9dIRV-77YG0Vr/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Grdr8xF2psKNsuYlEnl9dIRV-77... 3JanCh2_900-1100-avi https://drive.google.com/file/d/1LUmVygl_q0XVs8h2cWr8jZl-24fY0vBB/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1LUmVygl_q0XVs8h2cWr8jZl-24f... 3JanCh4_1000-1100.mp3 https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ZpP1pJbJakBgg-y-MWNozTxp3wJojHge/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ZpP1pJbJakBgg-y-MWNozTxp3wJ... President Trump rapes and kills 12 boys, including five boys in a "who can rape five boys to death the fastest" game: 14JanCh3_600.mp3 https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ufPmglde9Mep0m6xYMJ9c4TWTjj258zB/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ufPmglde9Mep0m6xYMJ9c4TWTjj... 14JanCh2_600-700.mp3 https://drive.google.com/file/d/136qLJdEn8eCs9tI4QtIxl4opW_Lw_gCF/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/136qLJdEn8eCs9tI4QtIxl4opW_L... Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi: Accepting a $3 billion dollar bribe at 10:33 am on the 17th Jan 2019 to ensure Asian boys can get through the border at "Monterey" undocumented to be raped: 17JanCh3_949-1100.avi https://drive.google.com/file/d/1eodHu4o5Cm3xEWhDqipSuTj-M1CZUvmE/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1eodHu4o5Cm3xEWhDqipSuTj-M1C... 17JanCh4_1017-1100.avi https://drive.google.com/file/d/1y-nWEQbempkVZSz230j9wTyduZNjDmnk/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1y-nWEQbempkVZSz230j9wTyduZN... Speaker Nancy Pelosi also "preps" boys with First Lady Melania Trump, defined as in she performs oral sex on the boys’ penis and anus, as a child rapist like Henry Porter would, while trying to remove fecal matter from the boy prior to handing them over to be raped and then subsequently murdered, for Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito, who apparently decides he would rather just have ten billion dollars instead. US Attorney for Western New York James Kennedy rapes these boys instead: 12JanCh3_1533-1638.mp3 https://drive.google.com/file/d/1AgFkDsbPbI4b5Xd3Wbz2EVNNx25kW2Oz/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1AgFkDsbPbI4b5Xd3Wbz2EVNNx25... Attorney General William Barr with FBI Deputy Director Christopher Wray raped and killed boys for billions in bribes in Buffalo, New York on the 17Jan2019 at 7:50am: 18JanCh4_700mp3 https://drive.google.com/file/d/1UIdZkS5ZVksZdHYsnHk2t5losi0N0Bp7/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1UIdZkS5ZVksZdHYsnHk2t5losi0... 18JanCh2_700.mp3 https://drive.google.com/file/d/1DFK8IAxm5pQVqZv9L518nfgP7_odB2Um/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1DFK8IAxm5pQVqZv9L518nfgP7_o... 18JanCh3_725-.mp3 https://drive.google.com/file/d/1DG5ej59Ic8RT9UhbyMdwT0BDcKIifGGm/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1DG5ej59Ic8RT9UhbyMdwT0BDcKI... Secretary of State Michael Pompeo and Secretary of Defense Patrick Shanahan each raped and killed boys on 5th Jan'19 at 17:39 for billion$ in bribes:. OINoire wvvk erwol vk. 5JanCh2_1721-1818.mp3 https://drive.google.com/file/d/1eSlD4otX4KZqWXboQM92Mu-6J02Mjwrg/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1eSlD4otX4KZqWXboQM92Mu-6J02... Leaders of the "impeachment" effort Jerrold Nadler, Robert Mueller, and Adam Schiff all rape and kill boys between 11:20pm and 1:10am: 14JanCh4_2300-0000.mp3 Nadler starts at 20 minutes in- https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Kuvv2Zmbw5Jw7onbRI2hCZ0M8FU66GuU/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Kuvv2Zmbw5Jw7onbRI2hCZ0M8FU... 14JanCh2_2304-2359.mp3 https://drive.google.com/file/d/1nofp5xF-aXXcCSgQVwj30KlzE9WLr1x1/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1nofp5xF-aXXcCSgQVwj30KlzE9W... Mueller at 12:25am, next is Schiff who starts at 12:55-ish: 15JanCh2_000-100.mp3 https://drive.google.com/file/d/1EsmHfguwBuo2PbavJ1WYyhiML62tgCkj/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1EsmHfguwBuo2PbavJ1WYyhiML62... 15JanCh2_100-200.mp3 https://drive.google.com/file/d/1NZnWRnBryalNQu2yJmfJUdS2pA_rGSFH/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1NZnWRnBryalNQu2yJmfJUdS2pA_... 15JanCh4_000-100.mp3 https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ZEDJR6jb6ARpcNnWJTokBUKb2J2OQnwZ/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ZEDJR6jb6ARpcNnWJTokBUKb2J2... 15JanCh4_100-200.mp3 https://drive.google.com/file/d/173aYWvWHH4VGht1h_2nM0IMdw746LeCL/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/173aYWvWHH4VGht1h_2nM0IMdw74... Complete Media Protection: Lester Holt, of NBC NightlyNews, apparently a member of the Illuminati since the 1980's, along with ABC Nightly News lead anchor David Muir, stop over to the Porter studio in Buffalo, New York on 14Jan2019 at 5:00 am. They both rape and kill about two dozen boys by 6:00 am. Muir starts around 5:15am, then Holt about 5:38 am. Multi-billionaire Rupert Murdoch, owner of News Corp and also Fox Corporation, takes his turn after Holt. Video links below: 14JanCh3_500-601.avi https://drive.google.com/file/d/1i7NKepeyG_FfdQRrM7KsnFOZOOX3o7UL/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1i7NKepeyG_FfdQRrM7KsnFOZOOX... 14JanCh2_530-600.avi https://drive.google.com/file/d/1NZzgN5ilI7ToroU5cfqMaL4o2u1RwidV/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1NZzgN5ilI7ToroU5cfqMaL4o2u1... Adding to the media protection and reason this is not picked up by the media, CBS and Viacom owner Sumner Redstone and Leslie Moonves rape and kill boys following the President. 14JanCh3_700.avi IOnvkrltwmbrwbgt, ltmr;lmbb https://drive.google.com/file/d/10XDw6x3ldnnQiq7oIjpdYVENyXaB4aI0/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/10XDw6x3ldnnQiq7oIjpdYVENyXa... 14JanCh2_700-800.avi https://drive.google.com/file/d/1NS_e6AzEZ05wnfljkGMETGU5CWYKfRDp/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1NS_e6AzEZ05wnfljkGMETGU5CWY... 176 pg PDF [last updated: MAR|7|2O2O]: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1S7T_kDv48E40eHzus6CTXHxcm0W2qxVc/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1S7T_kDv48E40eHzus6CTXHxcm0W... \\. Please repost in USA! Post gets censored in US Recently more relevant: From page 49, Senator Mitch McConnell: At 1632 Senator Mitch McConnell checks into the Porter camera system inquiring if he can be part of the "eviction" for $10 million dollars. He is informed by group members that there are enough people for the event already and his participation is not necessary. At 1634 McConnell states "I fucked 15 kids, how am I not getting paid by you?" He is dismissed by Donald Reeves with "I think that will be all Mr. McConnell." 13JanCh3_1600-1700.avi https://drive.google.com/file/d/1L7bqOpvaEWmLiJpMhJNQDrfsQAHtsX8-/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1L7bqOpvaEWmLiJpMhJNQDrfsQAH...
GrumbleGrumble 7y ago
Like others have said, this was just a 15 minute halt when the Dow/S&P 500 dipped to -7%. This can happen again at -13% and trading will flat out stop at -20% [1] [1] https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/circuitbreaker.asp https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/circuitbreaker.asp
adreamingsoul 7y ago
(I'm not a trader) if I wanted to watch the market with a near-real-time dashboard, does that exist?
- aguyfromnb 7y ago
  Koyfin: https://www.koyfin.com/home https://www.koyfin.com/home
  - robin_reala 7y ago
    Maybe not: HEADS UP, YOU ARE USING A WEB BROWSER THAT IS NOT SUPPORTED BY KOYFIN This means that some functionality may not work as intended. We recommend using Google Chrome with our site.
    - aguyfromnb 7y ago
      I use Firefox and have no issues, though I only use it as a dashboard for the markets. There may be functionality that breaks that I'm unaware of.
  - Waterluvian 7y ago
    "I don't know how to read most of this, but I do see that everything's red."
    - Insanity 7y ago
      Yeah I'm feeling pretty much the same. If this was the status of our builds at work, I'd be very worried. It's interesting to see how it spikes up and down though, never really paid attention to it until now: https://www.koyfin.com/charts/gip/INDU_EC?t=SPX&t=NDX&frame=1d&yScaleType=scale-linked-percentage&mergeYScales=true https://www.koyfin.com/charts/gip/INDU_EC?t=SPX&t=NDX&frame=...
- marban 7y ago
  Tradingview
vortico 7y ago
Slightly unrelated, but why does the stock market close each night? If trading was open 24/7, we wouldn't have large spikes like this every morning. We'd only have them when certain news is announced.
- ct0 7y ago
  The market was not always driven by computers like it is now, and people running it needed to sleep.
  - sethgecko 7y ago
    People running hospitals need to sleep too but they dont close for the night
    - gringoDan 7y ago
      People need medical care for emergencies in the middle of the night. People don't have the same need to trade 24/7. Matt Levine and others argue that shorter trading hours would actually increase market liquidity. Synthesize market information outside of market hours, then trade during a shorter window: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-09/stuff-is-bad-so-stocks-are-down https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-09/stuff-...
  - pgwhalen 7y ago
    The market is still very much driven by humans; the computers just help out, to varying degrees. The idea that computers are trading unattended is a myth that I hope would die.
    - ct0 7y ago
      Sure, while humans are critical to maintaining the infrastructure of the various markets, but we are beyond the days where markets were tracked on a chalk board. The NASDAQ is very much running on servers from an undisclosed data center off route 95 in New Jersey.
marban 7y ago
https://www.wsj.com/articles/lessons-from-the-dot-com-bust-11583192099 https://www.wsj.com/articles/lessons-from-the-dot-com-bust-1...
sebastianconcpt 7y ago
I wonder how different things would be if instead of those stepped halts, a super high granular delay is injected into the system. Like instead of halting, making it go on but in "slow-motion". And depending on the strength of the drop, the slow-motion factor to inject in the system. I say this because halting tries to "cool down" emotion but it still "feels like" panic while making it all go slow would "feel kind of crappy yet normal" hence "buying" time to cool things down while still working. Wouldn't that reward going up and penalize/protect going down?
- Seenso 7y ago
  > I say this because halting tries to "cool down" emotion but it still "feels like" panic while making it all go slow would "feel kind of crappy yet normal" hence "buying" time to cool things down while still working. I don't think so. Halting would allow the traders to get a cup of coffee and switch to another mental gear. A slowdown would probably just keep them in gear and result in a lot of anxious refreshes and attempts to wrestle the system.
  - sebastianconcpt 7y ago
    Immediately yes, it will keep them in gear, but it will have no consequence because the output would come forcibly delayed, so the result will come not so immediately. Hence being anxious has no payout and being cool does. Wouldn't be that with time, the next generation of traders for example, they will relax more when things feel bearish and put the "normal gear" when it feels bullish?
    - Seenso 7y ago
      > so the result will come not so immediately. Hence being anxious has no payout and being cool does. That's assuming people are way more rational and less emotional than they really are.
      - sebastianconcpt 7y ago
        Actually no because the output (reward or penalty) is not selective on your rationale. You can be bullish or bearish. The the input and the output are both allowed, just working at asymmetrical speeds (slower for bearish). Wouldn't overall cause a "sustentation effect" similar to the asymmetrical speed in the airflow in the wings of a plane? I'm not convinced myself of this, but the idea made me curious and maybe worth of experimenting with in a limited context?
aganame 7y ago
Trump created a situation that's shaky as hell. I'm glad something happened that makes him suffer at least some consequences for once. Too bad it had to be this bad an event.
- ailideex 7y ago
  Ehh... I mean ... if the whole rest of the world was somehow unaffected by this ... then ... You do get that a reasonably conservative projection is that within a year most people in the world would have gotten COVID-19? How the heck did Trump do that? The only means of slowing COVID-19 has massive effects on the economy. There is now way in hell this would not have had a massively negative impact on the world economy. If you could give some meaningful argument for why US is handling it worse than the rest of the world, by all means. But just saying "Trump is bad" seems to be completely disregarding the reality.
  - ericb 7y ago
    Well, slowing this is in-control of competent governments, and mitigating the damage is entirely possible. For example, drafting retired nurse and respiratory care specialists and give a path for them to renew their licenses, building out temporary hospitals in-advance, using contract tracing and actual testing to stop the outbreak, rather than denials and calling it a hoax. If everyone shows up at the ICU at once, people die. Slowing it makes sense for tons of reasons. The lack of those things does fall on Trump, our denialist in cheif.
  - aganame 7y ago
    How did you manage to read what I wrote to mean I was blaming Trump for COVID-19? I am blaming him for taking Obama's legacy of stability and growth and destroying it for short-term profit. It would be a tragedy if he did not have to answer for that before the primary elections.
  - dd36 7y ago
    Trump running massive deficits and forcing rate cuts when times are good is Trump’s shaky ground.
falcolas 7y ago
The fact that these controls on the stock market have been triggered reinforces my doubts that our current "profits and growth over sustainability" view of how public companies should operate is in any way good. Short of a huge change in COVID-19's mortality rate, few if any of these businesses will go under in the next year naturally. The fire sale of stocks due to short-term impacts to revenue, however, just might do what COVID-19 can't.
chrshawkes 7y ago
I don't know if it was a good bet but I moved all my 401k into money market accounts for the time being last Thursday. I feel like those who say I should ride the wave down are probably not telling me the truth. All indicators seem to suggest a 25% correction or more before the end of the year. I've been buying stocks heavily on the latest dips and so far that is all down around 20%. I diversified investments in cruises, airlines, real estate, banks, tech and more. It feels like 2008 is happening all over again.
- derekp7 7y ago
  I think you misinterpret what they are saying. What really happens is that even though it was a good move this time, the next time you have the same feeling and make the same move, what you move it into may go down and what you move it out of goes up. Then when you buy back into stocks you are buying at a higher price than when you pulled out. And this second scenario happens more often to people than the first one (according to common wisdom).
- segmondy 7y ago
  Good move, Dec I moved 33% to Bond, 2 weeks ago I moved another 33% to Bond. I'm kicking myself for not moving the rest, but I can stand to be in the market for a very long time. Most knowledge that say rid the wave is rubbish. Get out if you know that things will be down so you can live to fight another day. If you have $100 and market goes down 50%, you have to wait for it to come back 100% to break even. Most folks don't understand that movement isn't equal in either direction. Market goes down 10%, comes back up 10% most folks think it has balanced, but it hasn't.
  - dbancajas 7y ago
    aren't you timing the market though? if it's down 10% today, you moved to bonds, then it's up 20% due to recovery and you missed the upswing, then you are in a worse spot compared to if you haven't done anything? "but I can stand to be in the market for a very long time" -> isn't this the reason to not do anything? So you can recover and buy more while everything is on discount?
- 7y ago
grioghar 7y ago
My first thought was the dead cat bounce from last week. Hang onto your butts...
ptah 7y ago
how is this "circuit breaker" meant to help? surely it will just fuel emotions and make things worse if people can't get rid of stock they don't want?
- dbcurtis 7y ago
  I thought it was more about kicking automated trading bots to the curb for a while. Stop an algorithm-driven flash-crash.
hsnewman 7y ago
Let's call it what it is, the start of the Trump recession. Move your money to FDIC insured if you value it.
jfacoustic 7y ago
And if the media would stop writing alarmist articles, there would be far less panic. We're in the golden age of yellow journalism. I've learned, in general, panicking creates more problems than there were to begin with.
76543210 7y ago
It did the trick. Everyone is talking about it and my friends are buying.
- newfangle 7y ago
  I dont think its time to buy yet. If we have a multiple month disaster that requires quarantining most of the population the market will fall further.
  - A4ET8a8uTh0 7y ago
    Agreed. The temptation is there though. I almost jumped in today to capture some of that, but then I saw that the things I would consider are still very much overpriced ( nnn, berkshire, apple ). I may end up being wrong, but it seems like we are not near bottom.
  - sgc 7y ago
    Don't buy after the first big city is quarantined. Maybe after the second or third... But know you are taking an incredible risk unless you are using funds you can hold in that position for years.
    - tasuki 7y ago
      > But know you are taking an incredible risk unless you are using funds you can hold in that position for years. Isn't that the case whenever one buys equities? Why is now special? It's definitely less risky to buy now than it was in January.
      - sgc 7y ago
        Yes, but I don't want to be the source of somebody doing something stupid.
    - deleted 7y ago
      [deleted]
- 7y ago
frgtpsswrdlame 7y ago
Currently only 6% down, perhaps (anecdotal) evidence that halts work?
- endorphone 7y ago
  Days with a large pre-market drops often follow this pattern. As the end of the day approaches the selling often becomes panicked again.
  - jsf01 7y ago
    Interesting. Is that based on your experience or is there somewhere I can read more on that trend?
  - geerlingguy 7y ago
    Either that or frantic buying at the end. Impossible to predict.
  - hogFeast 7y ago
    Yep, that is due to order flow from retail investors. They always put their orders in at the open (that is why Mondays can be risky) or at the close. You can see this by looking at the difference between the return on stocks in the first/last hour against the return over the rest of the day. I have no idea if this effect still exists today but you used to be able to print money from this (and I am sure it still works in places like China with lots of retail investors).
bilekas 7y ago
Genuine question: They can just do that ? Issue a trading halt because they don't like the direction it's going ? > “There’s a reason why they have those circuit breakers -- it’s to give people time to come back from panicked feelings,” Seems strange that the market is kinda able to be manipulated like that. I'm not saying this is a bad move, just surprised that someone can do it.
- empath75 7y ago
  It's not meant to manipulate the market, it's meant to stop a flash crash from automated trading. It gives people time to recalibrate their algorithms if something is faulty. If the fundamentals are such that it should continue to go down, then it will continue to go down.
- oh_sigh 7y ago
  Yes
- darawk 7y ago
  I believe it's true for the other direction as well, it's just pretty rare to see a 7% upward move in a single day. I mean, it's rare to see it on the downside too, but not as rare. Limit up/down rules are not discretionary. They're circuit breakers that fire deterministicly.
  - _se 7y ago
    It's important to note that limit up/limit down (LULD) is not the same thing as the circuit breakers. They have a very specific meaning and operate independently (with much more complicated rules as well). You probably know this, but others reading your comment will probably not! There is also no automatic upside circuit breaker.
- _se 7y ago
  "They" don't do anything - this is called a circuit breaker, and is automatically triggered. There are three breakers: L1 - 7% down before 3:25pm - 15 minute halt L2 - 13% down before 3:25pm - 15 minute halt L3 - 20% down - halted for the remainder of the day Only a single L1 and a single L2 breaker can occur in a single day, e.g. the market falling below 7%, rising, then falling again will not trigger a second L1 breaker, but falling to 7%, up to 5%, then down to 13% would trigger an L2. FYI this is the kind of thing you have to know to become registered as a securities representative.
totaldude87 7y ago
To be honest , the market was in dire need for correction, BUT wonder where we will be when companies starts reporting their quarterly results and impact of that. So far this looked more like a correction than a precursor to the recession. To make things worse, OPEC dropped bombs which spread the wildfire further..
- 3fe9a03ccd14ca5 7y ago
  Oil dropping because an opec monopoly explodes is good news for most of the economy (outside of oil industries obviously). But a drop in crude because of demand is bad for everybody.
  - TeMPOraL 7y ago
    It's not good for our emissions budgets either, but I guess we can worry about it after the coronavirus mess is behind us.
  - huac 7y ago
    no - oil dependent companies bought oil futures to hedge their price risk, so you shouldn't expect much benefit there. additionally, the high yield bond sector has a ton of energy company exposure, and those are falling through the floor. an extended price war could really obliterate those bonds, and their lenders. see eg https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1237022304510660608 https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1237022304510660608
  - kibwen 7y ago
    >good news for most of the economy (outside of oil industries Not quite, it's bad news for renewables as well to see fossil prices fall.
- sjg007 7y ago
  Why was or is the market in need of a correction? What is your evidence for that statement?
  - 7y ago
walrus01 7y ago
Serious question, is anyone watching this carefully and trying to determine when things will bottom out (perhaps in a week or two), to buy stocks, ETFs, and such at the bottom of the dip? Hindsight is 20:20 of course, but there's a number of equities that one could have purchased shortly after the 2008 financial crisis that proceeded to make significant gains between 2009 and 2019.
- allovernow 7y ago
  No one will be able to time this. We don't even know if this is the start of a [global?] recession or depression. If you haven't already, put your retirement into bonds and hold on. Honestly it might be a good idea to grab some cash from the bank to keep at home - bank runs are not outside the realm of possibility, although we have credit cards and other internet based payment methods now so it's probably less of a concern now. Edit: let me just preface my advice by saying if you have extremely high risk tolerance, now is a good time to buy, but be prepared to lose. If you are near retirement, now is probably the time to pull all of your funds out of the markets and into something safer. Based on the 100 year history of the DJIA, and the fact that the virus is just starting to spread in the U.S., the floor could be much lower.
  - wincent 7y ago
    > If you haven't already, put your retirement into bonds and hold on. Are you advising to sell equities right after they've taken a beating? Sounds awfully close to "buy high, sell low".
    - kazinator 7y ago
      Well, "nick checks out", at least. :)
    - creaghpatr 7y ago
      Depends on your retirement horizon, but if it's inside of 5 years the investor should have already tamped down the risk profile.
    - 7y ago
tonetheman 7y ago
Free market - until it is not
dannylandau 7y ago
Already blow past 7% on downside.
vearwhershuh 7y ago
In a world with zero-to-negative interest rates, unlimited margin available for the big players and a generation of boomers sold on the idea that stock appreciation (not dividends) is going to fund their retirement, what's the value of any company? Who knows? Until dividends are tax advantaged vs. capital gains, the insanity will continue. Leverage, huge risks and various shades of fraud, rather than responsible business stewardship will continue to dominate the financial system.
- tomrod 7y ago
  Exactly my thoughts.
- rytill 7y ago
  What is the best way I can contribute to making dividends tax-advantaged vs. capital gains?
  - vearwhershuh 7y ago
    Well, my plan would be to treat dividends as tax deductible to the company and then flow through to the owner, as with LLCs. Capital gains would be taxed at a windfall rate (e.g. the highest marginal income tax + payroll tax rate + 10%). The nice thing about this is that the progressive income tax system then makes equity ownership very attractive to lower-income households, and less attractive to rich people, thereby distributing ownership over a larger and more economically diverse group. I have no idea how to get people to buy in to this idea. I have had no success convincing even my own family that this change needs to happen, and my parent post is being downvoted. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    - rytill 7y ago
      Are there any disadvantages you can think of?
      - vearwhershuh 7y ago
        Yes: it punishes reallocation of capital and makes moon-shot style companies less viable. You would have a less dynamic economy with organic growth being the norm. I would allow for in-kind exchanges within a given trading year to make it easier to get out of bad positions (as well as tax free exchange with gold at any time, so gold becomes the medium for non-productive savings.) Now, let me tell you about my banking system proposal... My family loves me at the dinner table, why do you ask?
JohnJamesRambo 7y ago
It seems Mr. Market doesn't get to visit as freely or stay as long as he likes sometimes.
ShorsHammer 7y ago
Bloomberg has view limits now? https://outline.com/7grdK6 https://outline.com/7grdK6
- zelly 7y ago
  disable JavaScript
leptoniscool 7y ago
The market was up over 30% last year, but GDP growth was certainly not 30%.
- azhenley 7y ago
  GDP is not a perfect indicator.
  - ceejayoz 7y ago
    The point, though: Neither is the stock market.
  - Hoasi 7y ago
    That much is clear.
  - cm2187 7y ago
    No but earning growth should be and I don't think it supported the rally.
  - kleer001 7y ago
    There are no perfect indicators. In fact there's no perfect anything. Just good enough for purposes.
- pastor_elm 7y ago
  The stock market must break records week after week. This is a direct order from the president to the Fed.
- friedman23 7y ago
  This can be explained by market consolidation. GDP and market returns are not supposed to be perfectly correlated.
  - asdfadsfgfdda 7y ago
    I think it's better explained by interest rates dropping over 2019. There are now more savers with fewer opportunities to make a return on their capital. So even with constant corporate earnings, there are more savers trying to buy a share of those earnings. Basically, the opposite of this explanation: https://www.thebalance.com/why-do-asset-prices-fall-when-interest-rates-increase-357150 https://www.thebalance.com/why-do-asset-prices-fall-when-int...
jaequery 7y ago
This is creating one of the best buy opportunity ever. It's just sad that only the rich will benefit. The poor will just get poorer.
- thedance 7y ago
  You sound a tiny bit like 2006-edition real estate agent. https://www.millersamuel.com/wp-content/uploads/oldimages/NARad.jpg https://www.millersamuel.com/wp-content/uploads/oldimages/NA...
- justinmeiners 7y ago
  It's still less than a year of growth. Were you urgently buying a year ago?
- SuoDuanDao 7y ago
  People with low EQ will get poorer because they'll panic. Most people of my generation who are in stocks at all are looking forward to a buying opportunity, a lot of us have only ever traded in up markets.
- OscarCunningham 7y ago
  Why do you think that stocks will go up faster after this crash than if it had never happened?
aazaa 7y ago
> The cash equities market is subject to circuit breakers established by the New York Stock Exchange in the wake of the 1987 Black Monday crash. Trading will halt for 15 minutes if the S&P 500 falls 7% to 2,764.3 at any time before 3:25 p.m. in New York. ... That's less than a 1% drop from here. Right now, all eyes are on the Fed and the size of the bazooka they'll be deploying. Anything short of outright stock purchases is not going to be received well. Despite the desperation that move smells like, the Fed would be merely following ground already trodden by the Bank of Japan, which now owns around 80% of the Japanese ETF market. Edit: only 5 points to go.
- ipnon 7y ago
  The circuit breaker was already triggered when the market opened this morning at 9:30 AM EST.
  - aazaa 7y ago
    You're right.
tempsy 7y ago
Buy S&P puts as a hedge to save your account in times of extreme volatility. I had 270 strike puts for April I bought on Friday for $6 that jumped to $15 today and got my account to break even even though the value of my stocks went down.
- asdfasgasdgasdg 7y ago
  What fraction of your account value would you have lost if those puts expired (i.e. if the market had not declined)?
  - tempsy 7y ago
    Well they wouldn't have expired until 4/17, so even if the market didn't go down today or went up it wouldn't have dropped anywhere close to $0.
    - hermitdev 7y ago
      I hadn't checked VIX for a few weeks. As I write this, it's trading at 54.79. That's insane. It's usually in the high teens to low twenties.
- fsloth 7y ago
  Or just buy index decade after decade... this of course does not work if you attempt to beat the index or have timespan that is short.
  - tempsy 7y ago
    The index has become a bubble in of itself. It's also not as diversified as you would think when Microsoft makes up 5-6% of the S&P and over 10% of Nasdaq.
    - hrpnk 7y ago
      Other indexes, like the German DAX [1] have a hard cap at 10% per company. [1] https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/DAX https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/DAX
cletus 7y ago
So, children of summer (there are many here who have only known the longest bull market in the last century), let me give you some free advice. If you're looking at this and wondering when to get in, to bargain hunt essentially, and you're asking yourself questions like "today? next week?", you need to step back and think again. Some points to consider: - If your time horizon is 10+ years out probably none of this matters - If your time horizon is less than 5 years out, you should really question if you should be in the stock market at all - Be familiar with the term "dead cat bounce". This is a temporary period of recovery followed by a steeper drop. You're going to see this kind of thing. - Large market drops often lead to or are because of a likely recession. This can go on for months or years. - After the GFC the markets went down and then sideways for over a year. You essentially missed nothing by waiting two years. This could easily happen again. - Learn what "reversion to mean" means. It means that at times the markets generally follow a long term upward trend. At times the market will go above or below that. This can be a useful indicator of whether equities are cheap or expensive. In a given cycle you have boom (above the mean when equities are overbought) to bust (an overcorrection to below the mean when equities are oversold). Bear markets are paved with the blood of optimists.
- gameswithgo 7y ago
  as usual, the financial advice is "who knows what to do good luck"
  - spelunker 7y ago
    Maybe don't buy things yet because it could go down more! Dead cat bounce! Bulls take the stairs but bears take the elevator! Etc etc
  - flatline 7y ago
    I think he’s saying, invest for the long term without concern for the present market movements, and if in the meantime you want to gamble, good luck.
  - asdfman123 7y ago
    There's no good active trading solution here because no one knows what's going on. People occasionally make the right calls, but they also occasionally make the right calls on coin flips, too. There's a reason for that: the only good solution is a passive one. Ignore the panic, hold, stay the course, and put more money into the stock market when it's down. The large majority of active traders do worse than the market average because of panic selling in situations just like this one.
findjashua 7y ago
vix is approaching GFC levels - good time to sell some delta neutral condors
ronyfadel 7y ago
A lot of comments are saying that a recession is probable. Can anyone shed a light on why that is/could be the case?
- aguyfromnb 7y ago
  A recession isn't probable, it's inevitable. It's just a matter of how much sludge builds up in the economy before the over-leveraged have to unwind. That's the business cycle. Covid19 and the ensuing fall in global demand is simply another blob on the pile.
- adam12 7y ago
  Recessions happen every 4 to 7 years. We haven't had one for 11 years.
bawana 7y ago
How valid is it to look to the past when there is so much cash floating around? With so much more demand for roi, I would think that in itself would bias the markets up. Almost like an invisible Keynesian injection eager to happen
forkexec 7y ago
Well, according to a Harvard epidemiologist, 40-70% of humans will contract this virus, which implies 120-168 million people will die. That's going to impact economic activity and so will a Saudi / Russian oil price war. It's going to lead to the dreaded "R"-word and usually sinks whomever happens to be the current POTUS and their chances for re-election.
- AnimalMuppet 7y ago
  Hmm. It might also boost Sanders with respect to Biden...
freenergi 7y ago
Freenergi is a renewable energy startup company based in Indonesia. We provide solar power installation, solar as service and manufacture solar power products to reduce residential customers electricity bill and providing clean energy solutions for indoor and outdoor. We are looking for potentional investor and cofounder for this early stage startup. Please do not hesitate to contact us at freenergi contact page
losvedir 7y ago
It seems to me that falling 7% is qualitatively different from opening down 7%. Oil fell 30% over the weekend because of OPEC issues, and it seems like this could just be a response to that. "Plunge" implies a sort of velocity (as opposed to falling 7% over several days) which wasn't really the case here.
gigatexal 7y ago
But buy buy. All long term investors should be buying here imo. I’m not a big player but I’m picking up some shares at these lows.
leptoniscool 7y ago
Is there any evidence that a temporary trading halt will help to stabilize the market?
csomar 7y ago
Despite all the blood, I see a bull case for Tech and the USA. In the last 5 years: 1- The Nasdaq has gained 99.77% until it's peak. It has corrected by 17.41% since the peak. Total gains till today: 64.9%. 2- The Dow Jones has gained 65% till the peak. Corrected by 21.71% since then. Total gains till today: 35.85%. 3- CAC 40 has gained 20% in the last 5 years till the peak. Corrected by 22.12% in this sell-off. Total returns are -6%. My thoughts: - Tech used to go up more and down more. Now it went up more and down less. This is likely to encourage and push traditional investors to invest more in tech. They were afraid from tech because of the bloody downturns. Now tech holds better in a downturn, so that argument is no longer there. - Europe is likely to be hit harder from this crisis since they rely a lot on Tourism. That means a harder recession. Europe tech sector is weak and unlikely to match its American counterpart growth in a EU slowdown. - China might be the biggest loser in this. The world might realize we are depending too much on China. The US government might force company to build locally or outsource to friendlier countries they want to boost. China is not going to the dark ages but might face a slow down; though a social revolution is definitely not out of the question. - The oil crisis, if prolonged, is going to change some countries. Look at Venezuela. Russia, Middle East, Algeria, Canada, etc... These countries might face budget challenges they have never been through before if oil goes below $20 for an extended time. - The US tech sector being the only good-yield field and becoming a safe haven for investment in a world of worry and chaos will boom into a bubble of untold proportions. Disclaimer: Not a professional advice. Might lose part of your money or all of your capital. Might be a total hopium from someone is the tech sector seeing lots of red today.
- thefringthing 7y ago
  The practice of referring to increases in the price of an instrument as "gains" but any decline as a "correction" is bizarre.
  - organsnyder 7y ago
    We really could refer to all of them as "corrections".
  - csomar 7y ago
ttul 7y ago
I notice that there are many commenters here offering opinions on the future price of equities. Note that nobody has any idea where equity prices will be in one day, never mind one year or ten years' time. As a retail investor (i.e. not extremely rich), you can't gain any advantage over the market that overcomes your transaction costs. So relax. There's nothing to do here. If you're contributing to a retirement fund, keep buying. As the market falls, you're getting a discount. If you need to retire in the next five years, you should already have started moving out of equities. It's too late to change that now.
- bytematic 7y ago
  Most people don't seem to understand that you don't pull all your retirement out at once, so the market going up or down doesn't really affect that
  - DevKoala 7y ago
    But it is wonderful for headlines: "The man who retired on the week the DOW plunged" https://www.barrons.com/articles/he-retired-the-week-the-dow-slid-13-consider-it-a-wake-up-call-to-check-your-portfolio-51583520161 https://www.barrons.com/articles/he-retired-the-week-the-dow...
  - brazzy 7y ago
    But whether you start your retirement at a time the market is down a lot or up a lot can make a surprisingly big difference on how long your money lasts, if you don't adjust your spending.
    - perl4ever 7y ago
      Doc, it hurts when I do this! So...
      - t-writescode 7y ago
        Every medical expense, every food expense has the result of costing more of a percentage of your remaining funds. Many costs can’t be put off.
lcfcjs2 7y ago
Yes I lost a million dollars, but hey at least I know what a Antarctic Snow Cruiser is!
LatteLazy 7y ago
Asia sneezes and America gets a cold...
Freestyler_3 7y ago
Considering most wealth is in old peoples hands, they are most affected by this virus. They are most susceptible to fear-mongering too.
marcrosoft 7y ago
US stock trade (artificial) limits might have existed before but I don’t remember them. You see these in other countries and commodity markets. Limit down. IMO they cause a faster drop in a down market because you don’t know when you’ll be able to exit. The market can open limit down within seconds. This can continue for weeks.
- azernik 7y ago
  IIRC there were limits in 2008.
tracker1 7y ago
#hodl
marcrosoft 7y ago
TLT,GLD buy buy buy
- silexia 7y ago
  TLT is screwed long-term by the fed causing massive inflation. I have a ton of money in puts on this right now.
  - marcrosoft 7y ago
    TLT has gone up +11% in three trading days. It does really well when the Fed cuts rates and the S&P goes down. Inflation is a problem that GLD fixes. Edit: It sucks you have a bunch of puts. You are most likely going to lose them.
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
pedalpete 7y ago
It was not that long ago that the "experts" were saying the Boom-Bust Cycle had ended. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-22/bridgewater-co-cio-bob-prince-says-boom-bust-cycle-is-over https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-22/bridgewat... Buffett, Dalio and others have been preparing for this time for a while. This is when money is made or lost. If you have the ability and the stomach for it. I'm not suggesting you buy today, I personally don't believe the worst is behind us. But an opportunity is coming.
- porknubbins 7y ago
  The “we have beaten the business cycle” is a pretty bold claim I agree, but I don’t see anything here that contradicts it yet. We have a market psychology panic, but unless low earnings and unemployment follow its not really an economic bust.
- joncrane 7y ago
  As recovery approaches full employment ... soothsayers will proclaim that the business cycle has been banished [and] debts can be taken on ... But in truth neither the boom, nor the debt deflation ... and certainly not a recovery can go on forever. Hyman Minsky (From the wikipedia article posted last week "Minsky Moment: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsky_moment" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsky_moment"
songzme 7y ago
The one takeaway I learned from 2007 is to buy puts when I feel like there is going to be a recession. It may just give me enough money to last a year or two if I lose my job. Starting last week, I bought a put (just 1) in Chipotle (No particular reason, I just picked a random one) for 2000. Its the one bet I hope I lose money on, but so far my position (2k investment) have grown to over 6k. (300% increase). Its sad money because when the market goes down, my RSUs are dropping significantly more. The put are there to make sure if I lose my job and my RSUs, my put position will generate enough profits to last me 2 years without work. I only need 24k to get by / year. Just wanted to put this out there in case someone else out there has alot of RSUs that are stuck and wanted to buy some positions to make some money in case of a recession.
- bby 7y ago
  what if I don't have any RSUs ):
alpineidyll3 7y ago
I would recommend anyone looking for long term guidance about what comes next read this article from Bloomberg's excellent John Authers. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-09/oil-crash-coronavirus-is-just-the-start-of-market-shocks?cmpid=BBD031020_AUT&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=200310&utm_campaign=authers https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-09/oil-cr...
robodale 7y ago
Looks like stock's back on menu boys!

651 points by batmenace 7y ago

deugtniet 7y ago

Just to clarify the title: Trading was halted for 15 minutes.

pureagave 7y ago
Correct. 7% decline is a pause. If it drops 13% it will pause for another 15 minutes. If it drops 20% it will end trading for the day.
- Waterluvian 7y ago
  I'm going to say it. It can't possibly collapse 20% in one day... can it?
  - deugtniet 7y ago
    Based on the rules it cannot drop _more_ than 20% in a day :-) There are examples of it happening in other countries though. Zimbabwe and Argentina come to mind for some crazy inflation and stock numbers.
    - JumpCrisscross 7y ago
      > Based on the rules it cannot drop _more_ than 20% in a day Asset pricing is not continuous. A single trade can take pricing from -18% to -X%, with X having any value between infinity and -100. The breaker triggers at -20%. If the market crosses at -18% and then trades -25%, that trade will cross and then trip the breaker.
  - MS90 7y ago
    Looks like it's only happened once, 22.61% on Oct 19, 1987. Even the 1929 crash wasn't that much, though it did drop about 24.5% over two days, Oct 28 and 29, 1929. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_daily_changes_in_the_Dow_Jones_Industrial_Average https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_daily_changes_...
    - vitaflo 7y ago
      The crash in 1987 is why they put these halting rules in place.
      - jkachmar 7y ago
        I don’t believe this is correct. My understanding is that these automatic limit down rules were added in response to the flash crash in 2010, during which the Dow Jones lost 1000 points over the course of minutes.
      - harambaebae69 7y ago
        This is incorrect, it was somewhere during/after the 2008 recession that these circuit breakers went into effect (because I remember they didn't exist at that time)
      - findjashua 7y ago
        not exactly - circuit breaker was put in place after the 1987 crash, but the 3-tier system (7-13-20) went into effect only in 2013: https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Trading_curb https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Trading_curb
  - umanwizard 7y ago
    That's about how much it collapsed on Black Monday in 1987, so, yes, it can.
- anm89 7y ago
  It's up what, 30 % over the last few months? The real economy didn't grow nearly that much. In terms of real value, the only way for the economy to take that degree of a hit in a day would be a natural disaster. But these numbers are mostly speculation, so yeah they can go up and down very fast minus techinal restrictions like these halts.
  - MuffinFlavored 7y ago
    S&P500 has wiped out all growth from 2019 at the moment and is headed lower.
    - anm89 7y ago
      Yes, correct. I should have clarified, before things started crashing, we were up 30% in a few months.
- sandov 7y ago
  Wouldn't that incentivize people to sell before the pause/end of the trading day, creating a snowball effect?
  - azernik 7y ago
    It would indeed, but if it's an irrational panic or an algorithmic mess-up it also allows people to stop and think for a bit. It's a tradeoff, and the main goal is to reduce the extreme failures.

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

neural_thing 7y ago

Trade safe. Historic times. Wouldn't be surprised if all the volatility shorts blow up and the S&P goes down 20% in a session.

cm2187 7y ago
The volumes on Vix futures are a fraction of what they were two years ago. Vix is shooting up but I assume it is following the stock market rather than the other way round.

throwaway3157 7y ago

For those unaware, this is common practice -- it a control that is working as intended. The trading was halted for 15 minutes

pacerwpg 7y ago
When was the last time this happened?
- spork12 7y ago
  election night 2016
  - dev-ns8 7y ago
    Actually not true. This is the first time ever these circuit breakers were triggered during regular trading hours. Even still, on election night, stock futures were only under the 'limit-down rule'. You could have still been buying futures while that restriction was in place, so this is very much different and unprecedented
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- marzell 7y ago
  Apparently in 1997, so it has been quite a while https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trading_curb#Instances_of_use https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trading_curb#Instances_of_us...
  - jacobush 7y ago
    Way before high frequency trading, to put some things in perspective.
thisIsNotTrue 7y ago
This is not at all a common practice.

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

Lagogarda 7y ago

first time since the 2016 U.S. presidential election after they fell more than the daily limit of 5%

joosters 7y ago
The daily limit is 20%, I believe? 7% = automatic 15 minute stop 13% = another 15 minute stop 20% = stop for rest of day
gzu 7y ago
Those were futures the night of the election... Futures have a hault at 5% Normal trading hours have the 7% stop
- cesarb 7y ago
  And from what I read, the futures did halt at 5% yesterday. So it was already sort of expected that the 7% stop would be hit today.

aazaa 7y ago

This will be blamed on COVID-19, but the problems go much deeper. Last year the Fed lost control of the repo market. the event was widely discounted at the time as an end-of-tax-year fluke. It wasn't. Six month ago, the yield curve inverted. People who should have known better said "this time is different." Speculators have been trained over the course of 10+ years to buy the dip. The Fed has your back. What we're seeing is the beginning of the end of that resolve. The last time this happened was during the GFC. It's not normal, and it's probably not a one-time event, either.

NikolaeVarius 7y ago
So what are you shorting?
- aguyfromnb 7y ago
  Why do you have to short anything? The idea was to get more defensive months ago. Long term treasuries are up almost 50% y-o-y. If you think it's easy to short things in a volatile market like this, then you've probably never tried to...
  - papito 7y ago
    I started getting defensive right after the election of 2016. Modern history does not have an example of you know which party going on a tax cutting, over-spending, self-dealing, deregulation binge that did not end in a catastrophe. Add to that complete lack of competency when it comes to dealing with a not self-made crisis (a matter of time), and only a chump would think the good times would keep on rolling. The market so far has absorbed the dumb trade war by pure optimism, and we only narrowly avoided a war with Iran. It all has been blind luck so far, and it just ran out.
- vikramkr 7y ago
  Your everyday investor probably shouldn't be shorting in ultra high volatility periods like this. Markets spike for one day in the course of leading to a recession leads to a margin call and you can't post collateral, then you're done. Doesn't matter if it goes to zero a week after.

facethrowaway 7y ago

For reference, someone might want to post a chart of the gains the markets have made in the past 5 years. I would hardly call this a crash.

tekkk 7y ago
Hah not a crash? Well it kinda is, and if it keeps going further down it will definitely cause a recession. The oil price drop was a huge punch in the gut, and I wonder what happens to US oil production if it stays this low for longer. Or well any oil production that can't compete with these prices.
- unlinked_dll 7y ago
  A crash over the coming days wouldn't cause a recession so much as reflect the start of one.
- csomar 7y ago
  > I wonder what happens to US oil production if it stays this low for longer Probably go under?
- bluGill 7y ago
  Almost nobody is drilling new oil wells, they stopped last year sometime. Almost nobody because there are still investors keeping one skeleton crew running just so they have expertise for when the oil price recovers. Once a well is drilled the cost to drill the well is a sunk cost. You keep pumping oil if the cost to run the pumps is less than the price you get. Most people with oil are large enough to shut down some wells to keep the price up a bit - they harm their own profit in the short term though and still need to sell enough oil to break even.
  - foota 7y ago
    OPEC has failed to reduce output to prop prices up, and they've crashed as a result.

beeschlenker 7y ago

Global stock markets have lost $6 trillion in value in six days. It possibly because Soros, Putin, and others are moving money out of the US so that it cannot be taken in lawsuits resulting from their involvement in the story below. Unless of course you believe it is because of COVID19 aka Coronavirus, a sickness with a 2.3% death rate. See below: http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-72000-covid-19-patients-finds-23-death-rate http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-720... Attorney General Barr is not resigning; not before President Trump does. Barr is the same as Mueller,Pelosi,Schiff, & Nadler: feign opposition to cover the true motive of obstruction to keep Trump in power. Supreme Court Justice Alito & FBI Deputy Director Wray also on board. See latest updates "Impeachment" Is A Diversion And Delay - Part II: Blocking of the "impeachment" witnesses was collusion planned before the new year. Listen to an FBI agent's disclosure from January 1, 2O2O here. The President was to resign late summer securing election for DNC. See latest updates. Here is the zip file, which was also made available in the 3Jan2O2O update. The file within is VID_20200101_201948.mp3. Turn up the volume and put on headphones. BB10Mp3Footage31Dec1Jan.zip 122.4mb https://drive.google.com/file/d/1IXOOhQhHybwky8Z5pGdr9ZXhWpIUazmi/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1IXOOhQhHybwky8Z5pGdr9ZXhWpI... The dialogue about the impeachment starts near the beginning. Having Biden in the White House is as good as Trump or anyone else in their organization. Obviously Schiff and Nadler pledged their allegiance to the organization by raping boys on the record, with their task being to drag out an impeachment designed to obstruct and delay any real efforts to remove the President, thus keeping Trump in power. The witness blocking was to cause an apparent uproar delaying things with legal actions until late Summer. Soon after, the President would resign, leaving any other candidate with not enough time or support to compete with an opportunistic Biden, who is as good as Trump or any other Illuminati friendly politician in the Presidency. 176 page PDF [last update: March|7|2O2O]: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1S7T_kDv48E40eHzus6CTXHxcm0W2qxVc/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1S7T_kDv48E40eHzus6CTXHxcm0W... Previously reported: \Wag The Dog: first was feigned impeachment hearings meant to obstruct, now an attack on Iranians in Iraq. Here is what they are trying to distract from & cover up to retain power. $100+ billion in bribes to the highest offices in this country. 915+ deaths from child rapes to prove loyalty! See the latest PDF updates: FBI Director Wray, AG Barr, SoD Shanahan, & SoS Pompeo each raped boys and were paid billions in bribes for a Soros & Koch funded child rape org. So did Trump & his "impeachment" team Nadler,Schiff,Mueller.So did media moguls Redstone,Murdoch,Moonves. What are they trying to set up? Who can arrest them since they are all bribed and in on it ? Their strategy to stay in every office and obstruct until forced to leave no matter what. Feigning impeachment: see page 13O. \\if;Download the video/audio file, put on headphones and turn up the volume. You will hear these people committing these crimes. Audio was broadcast into my apartment by outdated surveillance equipment illegally embedded within my walls. This very same technology was being used to broadcast me to the internet for five years without my consent. I own this footage. Please use this to prosecute all found within. Note:: I am obliviously speaking throughout the video, and it can be quite loud at times relative to the desired content. The are dozens more links, including these, that can be found in this PDF that was last updated on 7 Mar 2O2O: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1S7T_kDv48E40eHzus6CTXHxcm0W2qxVc/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1S7T_kDv48E40eHzus6CTXHxcm0W... All members of the "Illuminati"; "....an underground organization of homosexuals and child rapists..." (from pg 26: Barack Obama with Jack Dorsey). President Donald Trump: Demands a $4 billion dollar bribe here at 10:18am 4Jan2019: 3JanCh3_900-1100.avi https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Grdr8xF2psKNsuYlEnl9dIRV-77YG0Vr/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Grdr8xF2psKNsuYlEnl9dIRV-77... 3JanCh2_900-1100-avi https://drive.google.com/file/d/1LUmVygl_q0XVs8h2cWr8jZl-24fY0vBB/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1LUmVygl_q0XVs8h2cWr8jZl-24f... 3JanCh4_1000-1100.mp3 https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ZpP1pJbJakBgg-y-MWNozTxp3wJojHge/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ZpP1pJbJakBgg-y-MWNozTxp3wJ... President Trump rapes and kills 12 boys, including five boys in a "who can rape five boys to death the fastest" game: 14JanCh3_600.mp3 https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ufPmglde9Mep0m6xYMJ9c4TWTjj258zB/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ufPmglde9Mep0m6xYMJ9c4TWTjj... 14JanCh2_600-700.mp3 https://drive.google.com/file/d/136qLJdEn8eCs9tI4QtIxl4opW_Lw_gCF/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/136qLJdEn8eCs9tI4QtIxl4opW_L... Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi: Accepting a $3 billion dollar bribe at 10:33 am on the 17th Jan 2019 to ensure Asian boys can get through the border at "Monterey" undocumented to be raped: 17JanCh3_949-1100.avi https://drive.google.com/file/d/1eodHu4o5Cm3xEWhDqipSuTj-M1CZUvmE/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1eodHu4o5Cm3xEWhDqipSuTj-M1C... 17JanCh4_1017-1100.avi https://drive.google.com/file/d/1y-nWEQbempkVZSz230j9wTyduZNjDmnk/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1y-nWEQbempkVZSz230j9wTyduZN... Speaker Nancy Pelosi also "preps" boys with First Lady Melania Trump, defined as in she performs oral sex on the boys’ penis and anus, as a child rapist like Henry Porter would, while trying to remove fecal matter from the boy prior to handing them over to be raped and then subsequently murdered, for Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito, who apparently decides he would rather just have ten billion dollars instead. US Attorney for Western New York James Kennedy rapes these boys instead: 12JanCh3_1533-1638.mp3 https://drive.google.com/file/d/1AgFkDsbPbI4b5Xd3Wbz2EVNNx25kW2Oz/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1AgFkDsbPbI4b5Xd3Wbz2EVNNx25... Attorney General William Barr with FBI Deputy Director Christopher Wray raped and killed boys for billions in bribes in Buffalo, New York on the 17Jan2019 at 7:50am: 18JanCh4_700mp3 https://drive.google.com/file/d/1UIdZkS5ZVksZdHYsnHk2t5losi0N0Bp7/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1UIdZkS5ZVksZdHYsnHk2t5losi0... 18JanCh2_700.mp3 https://drive.google.com/file/d/1DFK8IAxm5pQVqZv9L518nfgP7_odB2Um/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1DFK8IAxm5pQVqZv9L518nfgP7_o... 18JanCh3_725-.mp3 https://drive.google.com/file/d/1DG5ej59Ic8RT9UhbyMdwT0BDcKIifGGm/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1DG5ej59Ic8RT9UhbyMdwT0BDcKI... Secretary of State Michael Pompeo and Secretary of Defense Patrick Shanahan each raped and killed boys on 5th Jan'19 at 17:39 for billion$ in bribes:. OINoire wvvk erwol vk. 5JanCh2_1721-1818.mp3 https://drive.google.com/file/d/1eSlD4otX4KZqWXboQM92Mu-6J02Mjwrg/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1eSlD4otX4KZqWXboQM92Mu-6J02... Leaders of the "impeachment" effort Jerrold Nadler, Robert Mueller, and Adam Schiff all rape and kill boys between 11:20pm and 1:10am: 14JanCh4_2300-0000.mp3 Nadler starts at 20 minutes in- https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Kuvv2Zmbw5Jw7onbRI2hCZ0M8FU66GuU/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Kuvv2Zmbw5Jw7onbRI2hCZ0M8FU... 14JanCh2_2304-2359.mp3 https://drive.google.com/file/d/1nofp5xF-aXXcCSgQVwj30KlzE9WLr1x1/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1nofp5xF-aXXcCSgQVwj30KlzE9W... Mueller at 12:25am, next is Schiff who starts at 12:55-ish: 15JanCh2_000-100.mp3 https://drive.google.com/file/d/1EsmHfguwBuo2PbavJ1WYyhiML62tgCkj/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1EsmHfguwBuo2PbavJ1WYyhiML62... 15JanCh2_100-200.mp3 https://drive.google.com/file/d/1NZnWRnBryalNQu2yJmfJUdS2pA_rGSFH/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1NZnWRnBryalNQu2yJmfJUdS2pA_... 15JanCh4_000-100.mp3 https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ZEDJR6jb6ARpcNnWJTokBUKb2J2OQnwZ/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ZEDJR6jb6ARpcNnWJTokBUKb2J2... 15JanCh4_100-200.mp3 https://drive.google.com/file/d/173aYWvWHH4VGht1h_2nM0IMdw746LeCL/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/173aYWvWHH4VGht1h_2nM0IMdw74... Complete Media Protection: Lester Holt, of NBC NightlyNews, apparently a member of the Illuminati since the 1980's, along with ABC Nightly News lead anchor David Muir, stop over to the Porter studio in Buffalo, New York on 14Jan2019 at 5:00 am. They both rape and kill about two dozen boys by 6:00 am. Muir starts around 5:15am, then Holt about 5:38 am. Multi-billionaire Rupert Murdoch, owner of News Corp and also Fox Corporation, takes his turn after Holt. Video links below: 14JanCh3_500-601.avi https://drive.google.com/file/d/1i7NKepeyG_FfdQRrM7KsnFOZOOX3o7UL/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1i7NKepeyG_FfdQRrM7KsnFOZOOX... 14JanCh2_530-600.avi https://drive.google.com/file/d/1NZzgN5ilI7ToroU5cfqMaL4o2u1RwidV/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1NZzgN5ilI7ToroU5cfqMaL4o2u1... Adding to the media protection and reason this is not picked up by the media, CBS and Viacom owner Sumner Redstone and Leslie Moonves rape and kill boys following the President. 14JanCh3_700.avi IOnvkrltwmbrwbgt, ltmr;lmbb https://drive.google.com/file/d/10XDw6x3ldnnQiq7oIjpdYVENyXaB4aI0/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/10XDw6x3ldnnQiq7oIjpdYVENyXa... 14JanCh2_700-800.avi https://drive.google.com/file/d/1NS_e6AzEZ05wnfljkGMETGU5CWYKfRDp/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1NS_e6AzEZ05wnfljkGMETGU5CWY... 176 pg PDF [last updated: MAR|7|2O2O]: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1S7T_kDv48E40eHzus6CTXHxcm0W2qxVc/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1S7T_kDv48E40eHzus6CTXHxcm0W... \\. Please repost in USA! Post gets censored in US Recently more relevant: From page 49, Senator Mitch McConnell: At 1632 Senator Mitch McConnell checks into the Porter camera system inquiring if he can be part of the "eviction" for $10 million dollars. He is informed by group members that there are enough people for the event already and his participation is not necessary. At 1634 McConnell states "I fucked 15 kids, how am I not getting paid by you?" He is dismissed by Donald Reeves with "I think that will be all Mr. McConnell." 13JanCh3_1600-1700.avi https://drive.google.com/file/d/1L7bqOpvaEWmLiJpMhJNQDrfsQAHtsX8-/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1L7bqOpvaEWmLiJpMhJNQDrfsQAH...

GrumbleGrumble 7y ago

Like others have said, this was just a 15 minute halt when the Dow/S&P 500 dipped to -7%. This can happen again at -13% and trading will flat out stop at -20% [1] [1] https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/circuitbreaker.asp https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/circuitbreaker.asp

adreamingsoul 7y ago

(I'm not a trader) if I wanted to watch the market with a near-real-time dashboard, does that exist?

aguyfromnb 7y ago
Koyfin: https://www.koyfin.com/home https://www.koyfin.com/home
- robin_reala 7y ago
  Maybe not: HEADS UP, YOU ARE USING A WEB BROWSER THAT IS NOT SUPPORTED BY KOYFIN This means that some functionality may not work as intended. We recommend using Google Chrome with our site.
  - aguyfromnb 7y ago
    I use Firefox and have no issues, though I only use it as a dashboard for the markets. There may be functionality that breaks that I'm unaware of.
- Waterluvian 7y ago
  "I don't know how to read most of this, but I do see that everything's red."
  - Insanity 7y ago
    Yeah I'm feeling pretty much the same. If this was the status of our builds at work, I'd be very worried. It's interesting to see how it spikes up and down though, never really paid attention to it until now: https://www.koyfin.com/charts/gip/INDU_EC?t=SPX&t=NDX&frame=1d&yScaleType=scale-linked-percentage&mergeYScales=true https://www.koyfin.com/charts/gip/INDU_EC?t=SPX&t=NDX&frame=...
marban 7y ago
Tradingview

vortico 7y ago

Slightly unrelated, but why does the stock market close each night? If trading was open 24/7, we wouldn't have large spikes like this every morning. We'd only have them when certain news is announced.

ct0 7y ago
The market was not always driven by computers like it is now, and people running it needed to sleep.
- sethgecko 7y ago
  People running hospitals need to sleep too but they dont close for the night
  - gringoDan 7y ago
    People need medical care for emergencies in the middle of the night. People don't have the same need to trade 24/7. Matt Levine and others argue that shorter trading hours would actually increase market liquidity. Synthesize market information outside of market hours, then trade during a shorter window: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-09/stuff-is-bad-so-stocks-are-down https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-09/stuff-...
- pgwhalen 7y ago
  The market is still very much driven by humans; the computers just help out, to varying degrees. The idea that computers are trading unattended is a myth that I hope would die.
  - ct0 7y ago
    Sure, while humans are critical to maintaining the infrastructure of the various markets, but we are beyond the days where markets were tracked on a chalk board. The NASDAQ is very much running on servers from an undisclosed data center off route 95 in New Jersey.

marban 7y ago

https://www.wsj.com/articles/lessons-from-the-dot-com-bust-11583192099 https://www.wsj.com/articles/lessons-from-the-dot-com-bust-1...

sebastianconcpt 7y ago

I wonder how different things would be if instead of those stepped halts, a super high granular delay is injected into the system. Like instead of halting, making it go on but in "slow-motion". And depending on the strength of the drop, the slow-motion factor to inject in the system. I say this because halting tries to "cool down" emotion but it still "feels like" panic while making it all go slow would "feel kind of crappy yet normal" hence "buying" time to cool things down while still working. Wouldn't that reward going up and penalize/protect going down?

Seenso 7y ago
> I say this because halting tries to "cool down" emotion but it still "feels like" panic while making it all go slow would "feel kind of crappy yet normal" hence "buying" time to cool things down while still working. I don't think so. Halting would allow the traders to get a cup of coffee and switch to another mental gear. A slowdown would probably just keep them in gear and result in a lot of anxious refreshes and attempts to wrestle the system.
- sebastianconcpt 7y ago
  Immediately yes, it will keep them in gear, but it will have no consequence because the output would come forcibly delayed, so the result will come not so immediately. Hence being anxious has no payout and being cool does. Wouldn't be that with time, the next generation of traders for example, they will relax more when things feel bearish and put the "normal gear" when it feels bullish?
  - Seenso 7y ago
    > so the result will come not so immediately. Hence being anxious has no payout and being cool does. That's assuming people are way more rational and less emotional than they really are.
    - sebastianconcpt 7y ago
      Actually no because the output (reward or penalty) is not selective on your rationale. You can be bullish or bearish. The the input and the output are both allowed, just working at asymmetrical speeds (slower for bearish). Wouldn't overall cause a "sustentation effect" similar to the asymmetrical speed in the airflow in the wings of a plane? I'm not convinced myself of this, but the idea made me curious and maybe worth of experimenting with in a limited context?

aganame 7y ago

Trump created a situation that's shaky as hell. I'm glad something happened that makes him suffer at least some consequences for once. Too bad it had to be this bad an event.

ailideex 7y ago
Ehh... I mean ... if the whole rest of the world was somehow unaffected by this ... then ... You do get that a reasonably conservative projection is that within a year most people in the world would have gotten COVID-19? How the heck did Trump do that? The only means of slowing COVID-19 has massive effects on the economy. There is now way in hell this would not have had a massively negative impact on the world economy. If you could give some meaningful argument for why US is handling it worse than the rest of the world, by all means. But just saying "Trump is bad" seems to be completely disregarding the reality.
- ericb 7y ago
  Well, slowing this is in-control of competent governments, and mitigating the damage is entirely possible. For example, drafting retired nurse and respiratory care specialists and give a path for them to renew their licenses, building out temporary hospitals in-advance, using contract tracing and actual testing to stop the outbreak, rather than denials and calling it a hoax. If everyone shows up at the ICU at once, people die. Slowing it makes sense for tons of reasons. The lack of those things does fall on Trump, our denialist in cheif.
- aganame 7y ago
  How did you manage to read what I wrote to mean I was blaming Trump for COVID-19? I am blaming him for taking Obama's legacy of stability and growth and destroying it for short-term profit. It would be a tragedy if he did not have to answer for that before the primary elections.
- dd36 7y ago
  Trump running massive deficits and forcing rate cuts when times are good is Trump’s shaky ground.

falcolas 7y ago

The fact that these controls on the stock market have been triggered reinforces my doubts that our current "profits and growth over sustainability" view of how public companies should operate is in any way good. Short of a huge change in COVID-19's mortality rate, few if any of these businesses will go under in the next year naturally. The fire sale of stocks due to short-term impacts to revenue, however, just might do what COVID-19 can't.

chrshawkes 7y ago

I don't know if it was a good bet but I moved all my 401k into money market accounts for the time being last Thursday. I feel like those who say I should ride the wave down are probably not telling me the truth. All indicators seem to suggest a 25% correction or more before the end of the year. I've been buying stocks heavily on the latest dips and so far that is all down around 20%. I diversified investments in cruises, airlines, real estate, banks, tech and more. It feels like 2008 is happening all over again.

derekp7 7y ago
I think you misinterpret what they are saying. What really happens is that even though it was a good move this time, the next time you have the same feeling and make the same move, what you move it into may go down and what you move it out of goes up. Then when you buy back into stocks you are buying at a higher price than when you pulled out. And this second scenario happens more often to people than the first one (according to common wisdom).
segmondy 7y ago
Good move, Dec I moved 33% to Bond, 2 weeks ago I moved another 33% to Bond. I'm kicking myself for not moving the rest, but I can stand to be in the market for a very long time. Most knowledge that say rid the wave is rubbish. Get out if you know that things will be down so you can live to fight another day. If you have $100 and market goes down 50%, you have to wait for it to come back 100% to break even. Most folks don't understand that movement isn't equal in either direction. Market goes down 10%, comes back up 10% most folks think it has balanced, but it hasn't.
- dbancajas 7y ago
  aren't you timing the market though? if it's down 10% today, you moved to bonds, then it's up 20% due to recovery and you missed the upswing, then you are in a worse spot compared to if you haven't done anything? "but I can stand to be in the market for a very long time" -> isn't this the reason to not do anything? So you can recover and buy more while everything is on discount?
7y ago

grioghar 7y ago

My first thought was the dead cat bounce from last week. Hang onto your butts...

ptah 7y ago

how is this "circuit breaker" meant to help? surely it will just fuel emotions and make things worse if people can't get rid of stock they don't want?

dbcurtis 7y ago
I thought it was more about kicking automated trading bots to the curb for a while. Stop an algorithm-driven flash-crash.

hsnewman 7y ago

Let's call it what it is, the start of the Trump recession. Move your money to FDIC insured if you value it.

jfacoustic 7y ago

And if the media would stop writing alarmist articles, there would be far less panic. We're in the golden age of yellow journalism. I've learned, in general, panicking creates more problems than there were to begin with.

76543210 7y ago

It did the trick. Everyone is talking about it and my friends are buying.

newfangle 7y ago
I dont think its time to buy yet. If we have a multiple month disaster that requires quarantining most of the population the market will fall further.
- A4ET8a8uTh0 7y ago
  Agreed. The temptation is there though. I almost jumped in today to capture some of that, but then I saw that the things I would consider are still very much overpriced ( nnn, berkshire, apple ). I may end up being wrong, but it seems like we are not near bottom.
- sgc 7y ago
  Don't buy after the first big city is quarantined. Maybe after the second or third... But know you are taking an incredible risk unless you are using funds you can hold in that position for years.
  - tasuki 7y ago
    > But know you are taking an incredible risk unless you are using funds you can hold in that position for years. Isn't that the case whenever one buys equities? Why is now special? It's definitely less risky to buy now than it was in January.
    - sgc 7y ago
      Yes, but I don't want to be the source of somebody doing something stupid.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
7y ago

frgtpsswrdlame 7y ago

Currently only 6% down, perhaps (anecdotal) evidence that halts work?

endorphone 7y ago
Days with a large pre-market drops often follow this pattern. As the end of the day approaches the selling often becomes panicked again.
- jsf01 7y ago
  Interesting. Is that based on your experience or is there somewhere I can read more on that trend?
- geerlingguy 7y ago
  Either that or frantic buying at the end. Impossible to predict.
- hogFeast 7y ago
  Yep, that is due to order flow from retail investors. They always put their orders in at the open (that is why Mondays can be risky) or at the close. You can see this by looking at the difference between the return on stocks in the first/last hour against the return over the rest of the day. I have no idea if this effect still exists today but you used to be able to print money from this (and I am sure it still works in places like China with lots of retail investors).

bilekas 7y ago

Genuine question: They can just do that ? Issue a trading halt because they don't like the direction it's going ? > “There’s a reason why they have those circuit breakers -- it’s to give people time to come back from panicked feelings,” Seems strange that the market is kinda able to be manipulated like that. I'm not saying this is a bad move, just surprised that someone can do it.

empath75 7y ago
It's not meant to manipulate the market, it's meant to stop a flash crash from automated trading. It gives people time to recalibrate their algorithms if something is faulty. If the fundamentals are such that it should continue to go down, then it will continue to go down.
oh_sigh 7y ago
Yes
darawk 7y ago
I believe it's true for the other direction as well, it's just pretty rare to see a 7% upward move in a single day. I mean, it's rare to see it on the downside too, but not as rare. Limit up/down rules are not discretionary. They're circuit breakers that fire deterministicly.
- _se 7y ago
  It's important to note that limit up/limit down (LULD) is not the same thing as the circuit breakers. They have a very specific meaning and operate independently (with much more complicated rules as well). You probably know this, but others reading your comment will probably not! There is also no automatic upside circuit breaker.
_se 7y ago
"They" don't do anything - this is called a circuit breaker, and is automatically triggered. There are three breakers: L1 - 7% down before 3:25pm - 15 minute halt L2 - 13% down before 3:25pm - 15 minute halt L3 - 20% down - halted for the remainder of the day Only a single L1 and a single L2 breaker can occur in a single day, e.g. the market falling below 7%, rising, then falling again will not trigger a second L1 breaker, but falling to 7%, up to 5%, then down to 13% would trigger an L2. FYI this is the kind of thing you have to know to become registered as a securities representative.

totaldude87 7y ago

To be honest , the market was in dire need for correction, BUT wonder where we will be when companies starts reporting their quarterly results and impact of that. So far this looked more like a correction than a precursor to the recession. To make things worse, OPEC dropped bombs which spread the wildfire further..

3fe9a03ccd14ca5 7y ago
Oil dropping because an opec monopoly explodes is good news for most of the economy (outside of oil industries obviously). But a drop in crude because of demand is bad for everybody.
- TeMPOraL 7y ago
  It's not good for our emissions budgets either, but I guess we can worry about it after the coronavirus mess is behind us.
- huac 7y ago
  no - oil dependent companies bought oil futures to hedge their price risk, so you shouldn't expect much benefit there. additionally, the high yield bond sector has a ton of energy company exposure, and those are falling through the floor. an extended price war could really obliterate those bonds, and their lenders. see eg https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1237022304510660608 https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1237022304510660608
- kibwen 7y ago
  >good news for most of the economy (outside of oil industries Not quite, it's bad news for renewables as well to see fossil prices fall.
sjg007 7y ago
Why was or is the market in need of a correction? What is your evidence for that statement?
- 7y ago

walrus01 7y ago

Serious question, is anyone watching this carefully and trying to determine when things will bottom out (perhaps in a week or two), to buy stocks, ETFs, and such at the bottom of the dip? Hindsight is 20:20 of course, but there's a number of equities that one could have purchased shortly after the 2008 financial crisis that proceeded to make significant gains between 2009 and 2019.

allovernow 7y ago
No one will be able to time this. We don't even know if this is the start of a [global?] recession or depression. If you haven't already, put your retirement into bonds and hold on. Honestly it might be a good idea to grab some cash from the bank to keep at home - bank runs are not outside the realm of possibility, although we have credit cards and other internet based payment methods now so it's probably less of a concern now. Edit: let me just preface my advice by saying if you have extremely high risk tolerance, now is a good time to buy, but be prepared to lose. If you are near retirement, now is probably the time to pull all of your funds out of the markets and into something safer. Based on the 100 year history of the DJIA, and the fact that the virus is just starting to spread in the U.S., the floor could be much lower.
- wincent 7y ago
  > If you haven't already, put your retirement into bonds and hold on. Are you advising to sell equities right after they've taken a beating? Sounds awfully close to "buy high, sell low".
  - kazinator 7y ago
    Well, "nick checks out", at least. :)
  - creaghpatr 7y ago
    Depends on your retirement horizon, but if it's inside of 5 years the investor should have already tamped down the risk profile.
  - 7y ago

tonetheman 7y ago

Free market - until it is not

dannylandau 7y ago

Already blow past 7% on downside.

vearwhershuh 7y ago

In a world with zero-to-negative interest rates, unlimited margin available for the big players and a generation of boomers sold on the idea that stock appreciation (not dividends) is going to fund their retirement, what's the value of any company? Who knows? Until dividends are tax advantaged vs. capital gains, the insanity will continue. Leverage, huge risks and various shades of fraud, rather than responsible business stewardship will continue to dominate the financial system.

tomrod 7y ago
Exactly my thoughts.
rytill 7y ago
What is the best way I can contribute to making dividends tax-advantaged vs. capital gains?
- vearwhershuh 7y ago
  Well, my plan would be to treat dividends as tax deductible to the company and then flow through to the owner, as with LLCs. Capital gains would be taxed at a windfall rate (e.g. the highest marginal income tax + payroll tax rate + 10%). The nice thing about this is that the progressive income tax system then makes equity ownership very attractive to lower-income households, and less attractive to rich people, thereby distributing ownership over a larger and more economically diverse group. I have no idea how to get people to buy in to this idea. I have had no success convincing even my own family that this change needs to happen, and my parent post is being downvoted. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
  - rytill 7y ago
    Are there any disadvantages you can think of?
    - vearwhershuh 7y ago
      Yes: it punishes reallocation of capital and makes moon-shot style companies less viable. You would have a less dynamic economy with organic growth being the norm. I would allow for in-kind exchanges within a given trading year to make it easier to get out of bad positions (as well as tax free exchange with gold at any time, so gold becomes the medium for non-productive savings.) Now, let me tell you about my banking system proposal... My family loves me at the dinner table, why do you ask?

JohnJamesRambo 7y ago

It seems Mr. Market doesn't get to visit as freely or stay as long as he likes sometimes.

ShorsHammer 7y ago

Bloomberg has view limits now? https://outline.com/7grdK6 https://outline.com/7grdK6

zelly 7y ago
disable JavaScript

leptoniscool 7y ago

The market was up over 30% last year, but GDP growth was certainly not 30%.

azhenley 7y ago
GDP is not a perfect indicator.
- ceejayoz 7y ago
  The point, though: Neither is the stock market.
- Hoasi 7y ago
  That much is clear.
- cm2187 7y ago
  No but earning growth should be and I don't think it supported the rally.
- kleer001 7y ago
  There are no perfect indicators. In fact there's no perfect anything. Just good enough for purposes.
pastor_elm 7y ago
The stock market must break records week after week. This is a direct order from the president to the Fed.
friedman23 7y ago
This can be explained by market consolidation. GDP and market returns are not supposed to be perfectly correlated.
- asdfadsfgfdda 7y ago
  I think it's better explained by interest rates dropping over 2019. There are now more savers with fewer opportunities to make a return on their capital. So even with constant corporate earnings, there are more savers trying to buy a share of those earnings. Basically, the opposite of this explanation: https://www.thebalance.com/why-do-asset-prices-fall-when-interest-rates-increase-357150 https://www.thebalance.com/why-do-asset-prices-fall-when-int...

jaequery 7y ago

This is creating one of the best buy opportunity ever. It's just sad that only the rich will benefit. The poor will just get poorer.

thedance 7y ago
You sound a tiny bit like 2006-edition real estate agent. https://www.millersamuel.com/wp-content/uploads/oldimages/NARad.jpg https://www.millersamuel.com/wp-content/uploads/oldimages/NA...
justinmeiners 7y ago
It's still less than a year of growth. Were you urgently buying a year ago?
SuoDuanDao 7y ago
People with low EQ will get poorer because they'll panic. Most people of my generation who are in stocks at all are looking forward to a buying opportunity, a lot of us have only ever traded in up markets.
OscarCunningham 7y ago
Why do you think that stocks will go up faster after this crash than if it had never happened?

aazaa 7y ago

> The cash equities market is subject to circuit breakers established by the New York Stock Exchange in the wake of the 1987 Black Monday crash. Trading will halt for 15 minutes if the S&P 500 falls 7% to 2,764.3 at any time before 3:25 p.m. in New York. ... That's less than a 1% drop from here. Right now, all eyes are on the Fed and the size of the bazooka they'll be deploying. Anything short of outright stock purchases is not going to be received well. Despite the desperation that move smells like, the Fed would be merely following ground already trodden by the Bank of Japan, which now owns around 80% of the Japanese ETF market. Edit: only 5 points to go.

ipnon 7y ago
The circuit breaker was already triggered when the market opened this morning at 9:30 AM EST.
- aazaa 7y ago
  You're right.

tempsy 7y ago

Buy S&P puts as a hedge to save your account in times of extreme volatility. I had 270 strike puts for April I bought on Friday for $6 that jumped to $15 today and got my account to break even even though the value of my stocks went down.

asdfasgasdgasdg 7y ago
What fraction of your account value would you have lost if those puts expired (i.e. if the market had not declined)?
- tempsy 7y ago
  Well they wouldn't have expired until 4/17, so even if the market didn't go down today or went up it wouldn't have dropped anywhere close to $0.
  - hermitdev 7y ago
    I hadn't checked VIX for a few weeks. As I write this, it's trading at 54.79. That's insane. It's usually in the high teens to low twenties.
fsloth 7y ago
Or just buy index decade after decade... this of course does not work if you attempt to beat the index or have timespan that is short.
- tempsy 7y ago
  The index has become a bubble in of itself. It's also not as diversified as you would think when Microsoft makes up 5-6% of the S&P and over 10% of Nasdaq.
  - hrpnk 7y ago
    Other indexes, like the German DAX [1] have a hard cap at 10% per company. [1] https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/DAX https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/DAX

cletus 7y ago

So, children of summer (there are many here who have only known the longest bull market in the last century), let me give you some free advice. If you're looking at this and wondering when to get in, to bargain hunt essentially, and you're asking yourself questions like "today? next week?", you need to step back and think again. Some points to consider: - If your time horizon is 10+ years out probably none of this matters - If your time horizon is less than 5 years out, you should really question if you should be in the stock market at all - Be familiar with the term "dead cat bounce". This is a temporary period of recovery followed by a steeper drop. You're going to see this kind of thing. - Large market drops often lead to or are because of a likely recession. This can go on for months or years. - After the GFC the markets went down and then sideways for over a year. You essentially missed nothing by waiting two years. This could easily happen again. - Learn what "reversion to mean" means. It means that at times the markets generally follow a long term upward trend. At times the market will go above or below that. This can be a useful indicator of whether equities are cheap or expensive. In a given cycle you have boom (above the mean when equities are overbought) to bust (an overcorrection to below the mean when equities are oversold). Bear markets are paved with the blood of optimists.

gameswithgo 7y ago
as usual, the financial advice is "who knows what to do good luck"
- spelunker 7y ago
  Maybe don't buy things yet because it could go down more! Dead cat bounce! Bulls take the stairs but bears take the elevator! Etc etc
- flatline 7y ago
  I think he’s saying, invest for the long term without concern for the present market movements, and if in the meantime you want to gamble, good luck.
- asdfman123 7y ago
  There's no good active trading solution here because no one knows what's going on. People occasionally make the right calls, but they also occasionally make the right calls on coin flips, too. There's a reason for that: the only good solution is a passive one. Ignore the panic, hold, stay the course, and put more money into the stock market when it's down. The large majority of active traders do worse than the market average because of panic selling in situations just like this one.

findjashua 7y ago

vix is approaching GFC levels - good time to sell some delta neutral condors

ronyfadel 7y ago

A lot of comments are saying that a recession is probable. Can anyone shed a light on why that is/could be the case?

aguyfromnb 7y ago
A recession isn't probable, it's inevitable. It's just a matter of how much sludge builds up in the economy before the over-leveraged have to unwind. That's the business cycle. Covid19 and the ensuing fall in global demand is simply another blob on the pile.
adam12 7y ago
Recessions happen every 4 to 7 years. We haven't had one for 11 years.

bawana 7y ago

How valid is it to look to the past when there is so much cash floating around? With so much more demand for roi, I would think that in itself would bias the markets up. Almost like an invisible Keynesian injection eager to happen

forkexec 7y ago

Well, according to a Harvard epidemiologist, 40-70% of humans will contract this virus, which implies 120-168 million people will die. That's going to impact economic activity and so will a Saudi / Russian oil price war. It's going to lead to the dreaded "R"-word and usually sinks whomever happens to be the current POTUS and their chances for re-election.

AnimalMuppet 7y ago
Hmm. It might also boost Sanders with respect to Biden...

freenergi 7y ago

Freenergi is a renewable energy startup company based in Indonesia. We provide solar power installation, solar as service and manufacture solar power products to reduce residential customers electricity bill and providing clean energy solutions for indoor and outdoor. We are looking for potentional investor and cofounder for this early stage startup. Please do not hesitate to contact us at freenergi contact page

losvedir 7y ago

It seems to me that falling 7% is qualitatively different from opening down 7%. Oil fell 30% over the weekend because of OPEC issues, and it seems like this could just be a response to that. "Plunge" implies a sort of velocity (as opposed to falling 7% over several days) which wasn't really the case here.

gigatexal 7y ago

But buy buy. All long term investors should be buying here imo. I’m not a big player but I’m picking up some shares at these lows.

leptoniscool 7y ago

Is there any evidence that a temporary trading halt will help to stabilize the market?

csomar 7y ago

Despite all the blood, I see a bull case for Tech and the USA. In the last 5 years: 1- The Nasdaq has gained 99.77% until it's peak. It has corrected by 17.41% since the peak. Total gains till today: 64.9%. 2- The Dow Jones has gained 65% till the peak. Corrected by 21.71% since then. Total gains till today: 35.85%. 3- CAC 40 has gained 20% in the last 5 years till the peak. Corrected by 22.12% in this sell-off. Total returns are -6%. My thoughts: - Tech used to go up more and down more. Now it went up more and down less. This is likely to encourage and push traditional investors to invest more in tech. They were afraid from tech because of the bloody downturns. Now tech holds better in a downturn, so that argument is no longer there. - Europe is likely to be hit harder from this crisis since they rely a lot on Tourism. That means a harder recession. Europe tech sector is weak and unlikely to match its American counterpart growth in a EU slowdown. - China might be the biggest loser in this. The world might realize we are depending too much on China. The US government might force company to build locally or outsource to friendlier countries they want to boost. China is not going to the dark ages but might face a slow down; though a social revolution is definitely not out of the question. - The oil crisis, if prolonged, is going to change some countries. Look at Venezuela. Russia, Middle East, Algeria, Canada, etc... These countries might face budget challenges they have never been through before if oil goes below $20 for an extended time. - The US tech sector being the only good-yield field and becoming a safe haven for investment in a world of worry and chaos will boom into a bubble of untold proportions. Disclaimer: Not a professional advice. Might lose part of your money or all of your capital. Might be a total hopium from someone is the tech sector seeing lots of red today.

thefringthing 7y ago
The practice of referring to increases in the price of an instrument as "gains" but any decline as a "correction" is bizarre.
- organsnyder 7y ago
  We really could refer to all of them as "corrections".
- csomar 7y ago

ttul 7y ago

I notice that there are many commenters here offering opinions on the future price of equities. Note that nobody has any idea where equity prices will be in one day, never mind one year or ten years' time. As a retail investor (i.e. not extremely rich), you can't gain any advantage over the market that overcomes your transaction costs. So relax. There's nothing to do here. If you're contributing to a retirement fund, keep buying. As the market falls, you're getting a discount. If you need to retire in the next five years, you should already have started moving out of equities. It's too late to change that now.

bytematic 7y ago
Most people don't seem to understand that you don't pull all your retirement out at once, so the market going up or down doesn't really affect that
- DevKoala 7y ago
  But it is wonderful for headlines: "The man who retired on the week the DOW plunged" https://www.barrons.com/articles/he-retired-the-week-the-dow-slid-13-consider-it-a-wake-up-call-to-check-your-portfolio-51583520161 https://www.barrons.com/articles/he-retired-the-week-the-dow...
- brazzy 7y ago
  But whether you start your retirement at a time the market is down a lot or up a lot can make a surprisingly big difference on how long your money lasts, if you don't adjust your spending.
  - perl4ever 7y ago
    Doc, it hurts when I do this! So...
    - t-writescode 7y ago
      Every medical expense, every food expense has the result of costing more of a percentage of your remaining funds. Many costs can’t be put off.

lcfcjs2 7y ago

Yes I lost a million dollars, but hey at least I know what a Antarctic Snow Cruiser is!

LatteLazy 7y ago

Asia sneezes and America gets a cold...

Freestyler_3 7y ago

Considering most wealth is in old peoples hands, they are most affected by this virus. They are most susceptible to fear-mongering too.

marcrosoft 7y ago

US stock trade (artificial) limits might have existed before but I don’t remember them. You see these in other countries and commodity markets. Limit down. IMO they cause a faster drop in a down market because you don’t know when you’ll be able to exit. The market can open limit down within seconds. This can continue for weeks.

azernik 7y ago
IIRC there were limits in 2008.

tracker1 7y ago

#hodl

marcrosoft 7y ago

TLT,GLD buy buy buy

silexia 7y ago
TLT is screwed long-term by the fed causing massive inflation. I have a ton of money in puts on this right now.
- marcrosoft 7y ago
  TLT has gone up +11% in three trading days. It does really well when the Fed cuts rates and the S&P goes down. Inflation is a problem that GLD fixes. Edit: It sucks you have a bunch of puts. You are most likely going to lose them.

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

pedalpete 7y ago

It was not that long ago that the "experts" were saying the Boom-Bust Cycle had ended. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-22/bridgewater-co-cio-bob-prince-says-boom-bust-cycle-is-over https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-22/bridgewat... Buffett, Dalio and others have been preparing for this time for a while. This is when money is made or lost. If you have the ability and the stomach for it. I'm not suggesting you buy today, I personally don't believe the worst is behind us. But an opportunity is coming.

porknubbins 7y ago
The “we have beaten the business cycle” is a pretty bold claim I agree, but I don’t see anything here that contradicts it yet. We have a market psychology panic, but unless low earnings and unemployment follow its not really an economic bust.
joncrane 7y ago
As recovery approaches full employment ... soothsayers will proclaim that the business cycle has been banished [and] debts can be taken on ... But in truth neither the boom, nor the debt deflation ... and certainly not a recovery can go on forever. Hyman Minsky (From the wikipedia article posted last week "Minsky Moment: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsky_moment" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsky_moment"

songzme 7y ago

The one takeaway I learned from 2007 is to buy puts when I feel like there is going to be a recession. It may just give me enough money to last a year or two if I lose my job. Starting last week, I bought a put (just 1) in Chipotle (No particular reason, I just picked a random one) for 2000. Its the one bet I hope I lose money on, but so far my position (2k investment) have grown to over 6k. (300% increase). Its sad money because when the market goes down, my RSUs are dropping significantly more. The put are there to make sure if I lose my job and my RSUs, my put position will generate enough profits to last me 2 years without work. I only need 24k to get by / year. Just wanted to put this out there in case someone else out there has alot of RSUs that are stuck and wanted to buy some positions to make some money in case of a recession.

bby 7y ago
what if I don't have any RSUs ):

alpineidyll3 7y ago

I would recommend anyone looking for long term guidance about what comes next read this article from Bloomberg's excellent John Authers. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-09/oil-crash-coronavirus-is-just-the-start-of-market-shocks?cmpid=BBD031020_AUT&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=200310&utm_campaign=authers https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-09/oil-cr...

robodale 7y ago

Looks like stock's back on menu boys!