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Electric Cars Threaten the Heart of Germany’s Economy
- grecy 7y agoA lot of entrenched industries that make billions of dollars are being challenged, and will almost certainly have to drastically change or outright end if we have any hope of slowing climate change. I suspect those earning billions are going to fight tooth and nail to do everything in their power to stop that happening.
- kneel 7y ago>I suspect those earning billions are going to fight tooth and nail to do everything in their power to stop that happening. The misinformation surrounding the leading manufacturer in EV for the last 2 years has been astounding.
- Wohlf 7y agoWhat misinformation is surrounding Renault-Nissan?
- Obi_Juan_Kenobi 7y agoYour snarky reply is several years out of date. https://insideevs.com/news/362674/global-ev-sales-in-june-2019/ https://insideevs.com/news/362674/global-ev-sales-in-june-20... Nissan is far down, below Tesla, BYD, BAIC, SAIC, and BMW. And that's sales number, not revenue, which favors Tesla even more strongly. Tesla is, far and away, the global leader in BEVs.
- jamwaffles 7y agoWon’t be any economy left if the planet is made uninhabitable. It’s like the most sacred thing is profit, not anything about the people that create it. Very odd train of thought.
- growlist 7y agoGermany also shut its nuclear power stations in favour of more coal. I don't trust Germany.
- Already__Taken 7y agoEh, nobody gets to make rational evidence based policy with nuclear, that ship has sailed. I think once fusion is cracked the 50-years away joke will just shift into the planning permission department.
- growlist 7y agoI know but to replace it with coal??? Couldn't they have gone for e.g. LNG or more renewables phased in over time? The speed of the shift seemed mighty fishy.
- pgeorgi 7y agoPart of the reason of coal increase is that there were more than enough hold-outs that expected there to be another exit from the exit (2011) of the exit (2010) of the exit (2000) from nuclear, so that they saw no need to actually do something because surely the nuclear shutdown won't _actually_ happen. Well, it does and that assumption cost expensive time.
- jhayward 7y agoGermany did not replace nuclear with coal. Coal consumption is at 50% of pre-drawdown levels.
- oceanplexian 7y agoI mean for power generation, I guess sure. But coal is an essential part of steel production. And steel is the thing that literally all modern buildings and vehicles are made out of. So the whole "Green industry doesn't need coal infrastructure" thing is just BS.
- LoSboccacc 7y agoit's not electric cars that threatens German economy, it's delocalization to cheaper countries. worldwide sales are sustained thanks to strong growth in China that offset other region contractions. most brands have models ready to jump on the electric bandwagon anyway so the brand themselves aren't really threatened. it's just plain old greed
- syncsynchalt 7y agoThere are still two arguments to be made that electric vehicles themselves are a threat to the German auto industry, independent of cost or where the vehicles are made: 1) There are an order of magnitude fewer parts, due to replacement of the engine with battery + motor. The part count of ICE engines was the reason we have such a robust chain of suppliers, which are now threatened. There are also jobs lost due to loss of assembly and integration work. 2) Several German (and Japanese) auto manufacturers rest on the reputation of having the best engines in the business. Electric vehicles do not have engines. The brand halo from their engine expertise doesn't transfer directly to EVs.
- LoSboccacc 7y agoGermans are famous for interiors and safety features, those translate well. also continuous improvement of their lines, I don't like the golf personally but when you get in one you feel the years of iteration and improvements. also transmission, and as a matter of fact they're already experimenting with that on the Porsche Taycan, produced in Germany and that's already doing 3k car/month without months of drama leading up the deliveries. the rest is just an elaborate broken window fallacy, the economy will suffer not if they just shift the supply chain, as long as the job will be there.
- petre 7y ago> Germans are famous for interiors Have you ever seen an Alpha Romeo interior? Their cars ae unreliable but look great, inside or outside. Porsche is a niche luxury sports car, comparable maybe to Ferari.
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- growlist 7y agoThe Germany car industry should have seen the writing on the wall a few years back - when Merkel was forced to intervene to water down the European Commission's proposed emissions regulations - and disrupted itself, and if it had, it might have put them in a better position now. But even that would I think have been just forestalling the inevitable: the barriers to entry to the car industry seem to me to be lower than ever before, to the extent that even Vietnam - somewhere that was previously considered a 'developing' country - has its own home-grown electric car manufacturer, and I'm betting it's a lot cheaper to make cars in Vietnam than it is in Germany.
- wolfi1 7y agoIn fact, they did see the writing, BMW for example developed the Hydrogen 7 [0], Mercedes Benz produced Fuel Cell cars[1]. What they didn't expect, was, that simple Lithium based batteries would take over. Obviously they wanted to retain the range of the combustion engine cars [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BMW_Hydrogen_7 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BMW_Hydrogen_7 [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mercedes-Benz_F-Cell https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mercedes-Benz_F-Cell
- kevin_thibedeau 7y agoVW had a skateboard platform concept EV 10+ years ago. They could have productized it if they had competent leadership.
- tastygreenapple 7y agoWe had EVs over 100 years ago and folks already knew the advantages of electric power over fossil fuel power. However, batteries have been the limiting factor for awhile. Even now, only Tesla seems to have batteries that meet consumers power/range/cost expectations and they exclusively own the largest battery plant in the world. I'm not sure we can blame VW for being slower to EVs than Elon Musk and FWIW, the VW company seems to be pivoting to EVs the fastest. The Taycan - a VW product - is the first car that's competitive with a Model S.
- kfk 7y agoMeanwhile in Italy they are building lithium battery factories and working on converting diesel buses to electric. The infrastructure shift will be huge and new companies will need to raise to tackle that. For instance, Tourin has circa 800 buses for public transport today - you cannot charge all of them at the same time now as there is no infrastructure and not enough power in the grid. I somehow think that if even Italy is embracing electric as the “next thing” while Germany automakers still firmly hold their heads in the sand then it could be a pretty bad blow for Germany in the coming decade. Amazingly enough all of this could still be avoided if German automotive companies accept for once that the world is changing, will they though. * http://www.rainews.it/dl/rainews/media/Vrooom-La-prima-fabbrica-italiana-di-batterie-a-celle-di-litio-d624b164-3f13-4997-8582-fb2341d9c3f9.html http://www.rainews.it/dl/rainews/media/Vrooom-La-prima-fabbr...
- pintxo 7y agoConsidering the story about the burning (diesel) busses in Rome last year [1], maybe switching to batteries is not such a good idea for Italy? [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/10/world/europe/rome-exploding-buses-fire.html https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/10/world/europe/rome-explodi...
- ulfw 7y agoYou can't charge 800 buses in Torino but you can charge 8000 in Shenzhen? What's wrong with the Italian grid if this is true?
- Someone 7y agoPopulation of Turin: 880k or 2.2M for the metropolitan area (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turin https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turin, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metropolitan_City_of_Turin https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metropolitan_City_of_Turin) Population of Shenzhen: 12.5M or 23M for the metropolitan area (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shenzhen https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shenzhen) ⇒ the Torino grid need not be worse than the Shenzhen one for that to be true.
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- whatitdobooboo 7y agoIt's hard to replace such a manufacturing oriented work culture in any country, especially one revolving around cars in general. I think Germany will be fine, it's still early.
- tonyedgecombe 7y agoWithin Europe it's the UK that looks weakest right now. Domestic sales and exports have both plummeted despite the pound dropping. The new trade deal between Europe and Japan lessons the need for Japanese manufacturers to have European plants. Honda have already announced they are leaving. Even the prestige manufacturers are struggling.
- peteretep 7y ago> Nearly six million vehicles are produced in Germany each year, and approximately 5.5 million are produced overseas by German brands 1.5m produced in the UK ... a large chunk of which are for German brands. The UK automotive industry may be fucked, but the German one is 4 times bigger, and also directly exposed to Brexit and weakness in the UK industry.
- lispm 7y ago> 1.5m produced in the UK Many of them made for exports - especially to the EU. This is the problem. This will be less profitable and more complex. Currently Britain is in the EU and seen as an entry to that market. This will be gone soon. Much of that manufacturing looks to move to the EU.
- epx 7y agoIt was funny to see some colleagues that moved from here to Germany to work on automotive industry, and almost overnight started to defend "stopgap" alternatives like hydrogen ICEs... IMHO the biggest advantage of an electric car is the 10x gain on mechanical simplicity, I don't care if it costs the same to own and operate.
- gambiting 7y agoWhy would a regular customer care about mechanical simplicity at all? For 99% of people the car is a magical black box where you put fuel in and drive it. From time to time you need take it to a car doctor to replace something that might as well be a quantum fusion exchanger diffuser for X amount of dollars just so they can drive again. The last two values you say are of no importance to you are of biggest importance to everyone else - the car can have literally whatever under the bonnet, the cost to own and operate are the only two things that matter to anyone. There are certain idealists around for whom the car not burning fuel is a thing worth paying more for, but most people only ever look at the cost of ownership and nothing else.
- Ygg2 7y agoThat's something that IMO should change as well. Too many things means too much wasted material.
- CydeWeys 7y agoThe customer will certainly notice low maintenance costs.
- 3fe9a03ccd14ca5 7y agoAnd replacement costs. How many people have had this discussion with a mechanic? “The engine will cost $4000 to repair or replace. The car is only worth about $3000 so it’s better just to get a new car” Engine replacements in cars are crap because all of the other bits and pieces are still wearing out. Meanwhile a new batter makes an electric car like new.
- jacquesm 7y agoLast I checked the German car industry was doing fine. Detroit however looks more and more like a scene from some apocalyptic movie. And then there is Japan.
- Animats 7y agoFord is going electric in a big way. Coming in 2020, the electric Mustang, for which pre-orders are now full. Electric F-150 pickup in 2021. "Ford says that they can produce 50,000 vehicles in the first 12 months" on the Mustang. That's kind of small, but Ford can probably ramp that up as needed. Toyota is now making electric car noises but is only selling (or not-selling) that hydrogen-powered thing.
- jacquesm 7y agoToyota is pretty much the market leader in hybrids and has been since the beginning, if and when they decide to go all electric I really don't see what would hold them back.
- jillesvangurp 7y agoNot just the German economy. Much of the traditional US and Japanese car (and truck) industry is at risk too. Complacency leading to a lack of R&D is enabling new comers to ship products and establish themselves. Toyota, Mazda, BMW, Chrysler, etc. have in common that they don't seem to have plans to mass produce EVs in a market where Tesla is taking the #1 position in several key markets. It's not a given that any of them will survive while their market shares crumble, typically starting with the most lucrative segments. The supply industries around them are suffering a similar fate.
- fernly 7y agoSomewhat relevant, "The Tesla Effect: How Tesla Is Changing the Used Car Game"[1]. People who buy Teslas typically trade in high-end imports, causing a drop in the used-car prices for Audis, Beemers, etc. [1] https://www.capitalone.com/cars/learn/finding-the-right-car/the-tesla-effect-how-tesla-is-changing-the-used-car-game/1096 https://www.capitalone.com/cars/learn/finding-the-right-car/...
- nradov 7y agoUsed luxury cars have also become less reliable and more extensive to maintain. The mechanical and especially the electrical parts have become more complex and failure prone. Potential buyers understand that even a minor problem out of warranty will cost thousands to repair, so I suspect that's another factor in lower used car prices.
- neonate 7y agohttp://archive.md/qfoN9 http://archive.md/qfoN9
- aaomidi 7y agoGerman automakers not only stopped their R&D to develop the next generation of cars. They focused their R&D on figuring out the best way to cheat on emissions testing (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_emissions_scandal https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_emissions_scandal) None of the German car manufacturers actually made any worthwhile EVs, and it always seemed like they're making EVs just to satisfy EU lawmakers. Meanwhile across the ocean, a company with essentially no production line history is able to completely destroy century old companies because they got complacent. German car manufacturers deserve everything coming to them
- Scoundreller 7y ago> None of the German car manufacturers actually made any worthwhile EVs, and it always seemed like they're making EVs just to satisfy EU lawmakers. To be fair, this is most legacy automakers.
- fennecfoxen 7y agoTo be fair, electric vehicles are generally unprofitable and people who buy cars prefer not to pay more money for less impressive capabilities. Spending money to develop products that you can't sell at a profit is not generally a winning strategy, which is why the EV market is sort of a waiting game, in which automakers try to time their investments against various government subsidies and regulations — knowing that the moment it really is a more profitable approach, your competitors will all be flooded with capital and trying very hard to seize the same markets that you are after. (Heck, if you do too well against them, you could see government intervention to prop up your competitors in the name of saving jobs, whether the US government or otherwise. See also: the Renault/Nissan merger proposal that made Ghosn a political target. They were trying to do joint work on EVs to keep costs down, and the merger would be the next step — but Nissan is Too Iconic and Important to Japan™ to allow it.)
- Enginerrrd 7y agoThe real kicker is it's not even all that an effective way to counter climate change. It's more feel good BS than anything else.
- esotericn 7y agoSo how about, in 2020, you make a car that's as good as the 2012 Model S? It's absolutely bonkers that the car manufacturers are still playing catch up to a car that's almost a decade old at this point. Tesla are on their fifth model, third complete rework, and the 'traditional' manufacturers still have their dick in hand. Take a bog standard sedan, put a 200-300 mile range battery in it, sell it for the battery cost more than the ICE version, scrap the ICE line before the government forces you to, job done. This is going to be the car industry's collective Kodak moment if they don't pull out soon.
- russdill 7y agoAdd to that while battery prices and electric motor prices are dropping, the price of developing and producing internal combustion engines continues to rise due to stricter and stricter emission standards.
- SEJeff 7y agoAnd the double whammy that those ICE manufacturers are having to purchase carbon credits from EV manufacturers like Tesla. https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-sold-carbon-emissions-credits-to-general-motors-fiat-chryser-2019-6 https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-sold-carbon-emissions-...
- TMWNN 7y ago>Take a bog standard sedan, put a 200-300 mile range battery in it, sell it for the battery cost more than the ICE version, scrap the ICE line before the government forces you to, job done. I'm surprised no auto maker has yet to my knowledge a) done the above and b) advertise this fact. I'm envisioning a two-page print ad, showing two identical cars side by side, with a headline challenging the reader to answer "WHICH ONE IS ELECTRIC?"
- Brakenshire 7y agoThere are a lot of cliche comments here about Dieselgate and German manufacturers vs Tesla. The threat isn’t Tesla, Tesla will do very well but isn’t going to take over the world, it’s that manufacturing EVs doesn’t need a lot of the established supply chain, and doesn’t need the same level of employment. Mercedes, VW, BMW etc will be fine, but a lot of their specialised suppliers will go bust, and a lot of jobs will be lost.
- esjeon 7y agoMy guess is that, as more companies hop on the EV train, they will spend more on interior features, like better onboard computer, seats, default options, etc. I also believe that the price of car will remain similar even after complete transition to EV, because the real factor here is purchasing power, not production cost. If these turn out to be true, not so many people will lose job, but most will have to change their profession.
- bnt 7y agoSaying that a metal worker can easily switch to a leather craftsman sounds a bit simplistic, no? Many jobs will be lost, new ones will be created in their place, some people will switch careers, others will be left unemployable. A lot of German (and EU) education machinery focuses on the current gen car industry, and that’s not sustainable in the long run. So they will have to reinvent their educational system as well.
- jacquesm 7y agoThose metal worker jobs were long ago lost to automation. At that level very few - if any - parts on a vehicle are made by a person, the biggest job is to load blanks and to unload parts into machinery.
- weinzierl 7y agoI agree with everything you wrote and while I also believe that "a lot of their specialised suppliers will go bust" I think that at the same time there are big opportunities for the suppliers and some will prosper. The reason is that I believe electronics and software will become ever more important. Traditionally the German manufacturers have outsourced anything to do with software and even most of the electronics. They have no internal knowledge about software what so ever - every bit of software know-how is at the suppliers. That's why I think that at least some of the suppliers will be better off in the future than the manufacturers themselves. And it is also a question of human resources. In the past and for a long time software developers at German car manufacturers have been looked down on by all the "real engineers" who are in charge. As a software dev you have been much better off at a supplier. This is changing but in my opinion it gives the suppliers a good head start on capable staff for software projects.
- Zigurd 7y agoElectric cars accelerated some trends already in motion: The simplicity of electric cars dropped the last few barriers to *horizonalization." As with PCs and smartphones, all players have access to all parts. Vertically integrated players like Apple and Samsung retain some advantages, but are constantly challenged at every horizontal layer by specialist suppliers. There are about three dozen car manufacturers in China. They will thrive in a horizontalized car business.
- _bxg1 7y ago> “There is a transition toward more electric vehicles that have far fewer components and are easier to manufacture,” Bernhard Mattes, the president of the German Association of the Automotive Industry, said in an interview in Berlin. “Therefore, we can expect less employment.” Any major leap in efficiency eliminates jobs. It causes turbulence as people have to shift jobs or even industries, but it's not really a reason to not do something and it typically works out in the long run.
- Proven 7y agoNot only German, but all. It's a theft of global scale. When one takes into account the cost of subsidies and additional debt already insolvent governments take on to fund this nonsense, everyone should be concerned.
- sho_hn 7y agoSide note: Mercedes owned a 10% stake in Tesla early on and had an electric B-class with a Tesla power train briefly.
- 99chrisbard 7y agoEuropean EV cars don't compare to Tesla https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zSjYra7cYqY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zSjYra7cYqY
- Vervious 7y agoThe whole point of technology is to make processes more efficient. This in turn drives down prices and increases productivity. If it takes fewer people and factories to make a more sustainable vehicle, so be it. This is also the force that propels long-term economic growth (as long as the political system continues to support it). To fight it, and make the auto-industry less competitive, is good for Germany in the short run but the last thing they should do in a long-term horizon.
- BrandoElFollito 7y agoI would love to have an electric car but beside nearby trips (office, some grocery) I also drive say twice a year for vacation. I just checked the way from home (western suburb of Paris) to a ski resort (Val Thorens) 2 x 40 min stops, on the same way as all of the region driving to ski with me. This is simply impossible, I spend maybe 4 minutes at the pump, there are 10 of them at the station. To have the equivalent in electric chargers, there should be 40 or 50 of them, with a nuclear plant nearby to bring in the amperes. By then if batteries are 3 times the capacity and 10 times the charging speed, this will be competitive to fuel. Otherwise it stays as a second car solution, for regional (local) trips
- adrianN 7y agoYou could rent an ICE car for your long trips. Depending on your regular usage it could still be cheaper for you than paying for gas.
- BrandoElFollito 7y agoI understand that. I was rather trying to point out hiw far, logistically, we are from mainstream adoption - just because of life constraints (such as vacation)
- NullPrefix 7y agoExactly the reason why pickups are so popular. You never know when you might need to transport your washing machine or a fridge.
- Brakenshire 7y agoI don’t really understand the strength of your response, it’s a 6-7 hour trip, wouldn’t you want to stop anyway? Stop off at a restaurant near a 50kW charger, the fuel savings will pay for a good meal, and then you’ll only need another 20 minute top up to stretch your legs at some other point of the trip. And even if you never wanted to stop, this is, what, five hours over the course of a year, it just doesn’t seem that important, for instance what about the time you save from never having to visit a petrol station in daily use of the car?
- eeZah7Ux 7y ago"threaten", as if it was a bad thing. The world desperately need energy-efficient, sustainable public transport and cities designed around it. The electric car will not save us. Trains and bicycles might.
- known 7y agoGerman exports cars, cars and cars https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1139185659766280192 https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/113918565976628019...