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Mercedes Readies First Tesla Rival in $12B Attack

455 points by antr 8y ago

faitswulff 8y ago
I've been waiting for a big automaker to respond to Tesla in full. If they've managed to ignite competition in electric vehicles, then we all win, even if Tesla goes under.
- wmeredith 8y ago
  Same here. This was Tesla’s stated purpose from the outset.
  - GW150914 8y ago
    I think it’s unlikely that the majority of Tesla’s massive stock valuation comes from people who just wanted to see the likes of Mercedes hammer the final mail into Tesla’s coffin. I think there’s even a chance that they wanted to make money! If some people are to be believed, they even expected Tesla to be “the new GE” and that cars were only the beginning. At the very least I think the idea that Tesla sought to be killed ignominiously by rivals while struggling financially was an unlikely game plan.
    - zazen 8y ago
      This sounds like a reasonable point to me, and I'm not sure why this and your other post in this thread are being down-voted. Elon Musk might well be OK with Tesla cratering, provided he gets to make an electric-car-shaped dent in the universe in the process. But Tesla, the still-publicly-traded company, can't plan to fail.
      - GW150914 8y ago
        This sounds like a reasonable point to me, and I'm not sure why this and your other post in this thread are being down-voted. In my limited experience comments critical of Tesla are immediately downvoted, but often recover after a while if they're making good points. I think people can be very defensive of Tesla and Musk, and they vote accordingly. Fortunately the community at large seems to be fair enough to override that. The real problem is that a lot of articles which are less than fulsome in their praise of Tesla are rapidly flagged to death. It’s good to see this article gaining some traction.
  - dingaling 8y ago
    At the outset Tesla's purpose was to build hybrids.
- neom 8y ago
  Not to be pedantic but... I thought Toyota got the ball rolling with the Prius and Tesla stoked the fire? (never mind, you said ignite competition) Either way, you're totally right, we all win. :)
  - tonyedgecombe 8y ago
    Nissan/Renault deserve some recognition as well.
  - faitswulff 8y ago
    Did Toyota release a full-electric Prius? If so, I wasn't aware of it. The other thing Tesla did was make it a status symbol to have an EV, so there's that.
    - wilsonnb3 8y ago
      They've got a plug in hybrid version called the Prius Prime. It's only got 50 miles or so of all electric range if I'm remembering correctly.
  - rch 8y ago
    Introducing the Prius (or Leaf) on the economy side of the market didn't put much pressure on anyone. I don't believe the incumbents started making serious strategic adjustments until Tesla started taking sales on the high-margin side. Maybe only the timeline shifted, but that's still substantive, IMO.
    - stcredzero 8y ago
      If Nissan would license battery cooling technology from Tesla, the current Leaf would almost be in the same class as the Tesla Model 3. It's less stylish, slower, more "econobox," but seems only to lack the ability to rapid charge more than once a trip, due to thermal issues. (Also probably results in poorer battery longevity.)
      - codeulike 8y ago
- mc32 8y ago
  They’ll do well if they let engineering do the driving. If marketing gets to dictate direction, I’m afraid it’ll turn into a Frankenstinian electric monster.
- aglavine 8y ago
  Probably an expanding electric offer benefits Tesla at this time. It creates more demand by publicity and makes electric vehicles more mainstream
- martin_bech 8y ago
  Even as a Tesla stockholder and Tesla Model S owner I completely agree. However, all of these cars, are going to market late next year, and are a bit slower and with less range than the current Tesla lineup. The car that shakes up the game, is the upcomming Porsche Taycan. The first var to one up Tesla on charging speed, and the looks of the car are amazing!
  - jehlakj 8y ago
    Time to cash out soon?
  - pjc50 8y ago
    Slower and less range but cheaper has to be where most of the market is.
    - martin_bech 8y ago
      These cars I dont think will be cheaper, case in point the Jaguar I-pace. And the Model 3 is going to outsell the Nissan Leaf, so Im not sure, that cheaper is the way to go, yet.
  - kenhwang 8y ago
    What's probably scary about the Taycan is it's targeting the profitable segment of Tesla's lineup. Tesla's strategy of selling more expensive cars to fund R&D for cheaper cars completely falls apart if they can't sell the more expensive cars. Interestingly, Porsche's strategy is almost opposite of Tesla's where they sell cheaper volume cars (Macan, Cayenne, Panamera) to fund R&D for their expensive cars (GT2, GT3, 918).
    - martin_bech 8y ago
      I think there is room for both, and traditional combustion engines cars, will mostly be canabalised. But I am actively considering, replacing my Model S, with a Taycan (dependant on final price, charging options etc). The Tesla supercharging network, is a huge draw, but Porsche is pursuing something similar, with even faster charging.
- AtlasBarfed 8y ago
  Incumbents are hampered by: 1) lack of vertical integration in battery supply like Tesla's gigafactory 2) inability to properly design and market EVs 3) a dealer network that is at best ignorant and probably hostile to EVs 4) no supercharger network. They could use dealerships buuuut, see #3
  - kurtisc 8y ago
    Tesla buy their batteries from Panasonic.
- codeulike 8y ago
  Tesla essentially achieved their mission (accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy) when they announced the Model 3 and got 400,000 reservations. That started something that we are seeing being played out now, and it will continue to happen whatever happens to Tesla.
dsfyu404ed 8y ago
An aircraft carrier can't turn on a dime but when it eventually does turn around you've got a fuckin' aircraft carrier! Tesla quietly crept around and made electric cars cool and economically viable while the industry had it's backs turned. They've certainly succeeded in becoming a reputable brand, everyone's at least heard of them. It remains to be seen whether they'll continue to be viable once the incumbents bring into play their ability to write fat checks and spin up production facilities without teething issues at every turn. The big players in the car industry aren't ignoring EVs anymore. Personally, my money is on GM dominating the market. Maybe there's a place for Tesla and some of the later players in the high end.
- oblio 8y ago
  The funny thing is, had Tesla just said: we don't need to innovate upon lean manufacturing at the same time as we're innovating on electric cars, they'd be super safe now. Instead they had to automate everything, then rollback, and now are limping towards 10k cars per week.
  - dao- 8y ago
    > The funny thing is, had Tesla just said: we don't need to innovate upon lean manufacturing Or had they done it the right way like BMW did with the i3. Source: BMW i3 Teardown: An Electronics Masterpiece: http://www.techinsights.com/teardown.com/bmw-i3-teardown-electronic-masterpiece/ http://www.techinsights.com/teardown.com/bmw-i3-teardown-ele... Tearing Down the Model T of Our Time: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uDr4L6BzpP8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uDr4L6BzpP8 (both are about the same teardown by Munro & Associates)
    - rcMgD2BwE72F 8y ago
      Thanks but the Model 3 teardown shows that Tesla knows how to build EV profitably: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pAS-yjWj9DY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pAS-yjWj9DY The i3 one might be technically interesting, but the car was never intended to be produced in volume so it's just a nice niche thing.
HaloZero 8y ago
The big thing about Tesla is they have their supercharger network, are these other brands expected to run their own versions or just use Tesla's stations?
- dabeeeenster 8y ago
  They can't use Telsa's network. If that's what you meant? I took delivery of a 2018 Nissan Leaf 4 months ago in the UK. The car is amazing - the charging network is a sad joke. Luckily I have a drive so largely negated, but the problem for Tesla competitors is, the larger the battery the slower the charging infrastructure feels. If you need to recharge 70kwh on a 48kwh charging port, its not great waiting 1.5 hours at a motorway services. None of the competition are aiming at the model 3 or Leaf either, which is where the real market is. Nissan have announced a ~60kwh Leaf for 2019. They seem to be the only ones who are really close behind tesla.
  - mikeyouse 8y ago
    Chevy has been selling a 60kWh - 400km EV that costs $30k after Federal Tax rebate since late 2016/early 2017: https://www.chevrolet.com/electric/bolt-ev-electric-car https://www.chevrolet.com/electric/bolt-ev-electric-car
    - dabeeeenster 8y ago
      Sorry yes my bad - but its not for sale in the UK
      - mikeyouse 8y ago
        Ah right, that whole localization thing. I forgot that GM sold Opel as well, so they don't have the same vehicles any more.
        dabeeeenster 8y ago
        It's sold as Vauxhall in the UK and Australia. Terrible brand here in the UK.
fermigier 8y ago
Renault has been doing electric cars for some time. One of my friends drove me recently in his Renault Zoe (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renault_Zoe https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renault_Zoe ) and I was favorably impressed. A new, cheaper and with extended range, version should be available next year: http://www.auto-moto.com/nouveautes/scoop/renault-zoe-2019-174346.html http://www.auto-moto.com/nouveautes/scoop/renault-zoe-2019-1...
- bufferoverflow 8y ago
  Renault Zoe has a small battery, only 210km, while Model 3 is 500km.
  - GW150914 8y ago
    Disclaimer. The following comment was re-written after Greg replied: Responding to Greg’s points, if you buy out the battery lease on the long range car, it’s $34,000 dollars. The Tesla Model 3 you can buy today starts at $54,000 dollars. I didn’t know about NEDC vs EPA, so I was off about the range. Looking here it seems like a rough average for the range is 284km. https://pushevs.com/2018/07/29/range-efficiency-test-of-10-electric-cars/ https://pushevs.com/2018/07/29/range-efficiency-test-of-10-e... Maybe it’s worth it for most people to pay $20,000 for ~200km more range, but certainly not in Europe. I’m also consistently met with points that 99% of trips are below 70mi. Plus as I said earlier, you get actual instruments and not one massive touchscreen, and quality control from a company not struggling to make cars at any cost. Then, if something breaks you don’t have to wait months for the part, and if you order a car now, you get it, you don’t go on an indeterminate wait list while they hold your money.
    - greglindahl 8y ago
      You're comparing NEDC range with EPA range, and the price to buy a Model 3 with the price to buy a Zoe with a leased battery.
  - ceejayoz 8y ago
    Range is likely less of an issue for European purchasers.
btilly 8y ago
Just wait until it really sinks in for their dealers that selling electric cars means greatly reduced maintenance. Given what fraction of their dealers' revenue comes from maintenance, this will be a left hand doesn't know what the right hand is doing kind of situation as the manufacturer and the dealer's interests fail to align. Tesla worked hard to avoid having dealers. And I believe that dealers will be a weakness for the legacy auto industry here.
- dabeeeenster 8y ago
  There was an article about EVs in the FT this weekend, stating that several manufacturers dont include EV's in their dealer's sales targets, which is only going to make this issue worse.
- robterrell 8y ago
  The non-Tesla EVs I've owned have required frequent software updates & had several serious-sounding recalls. I assume the manufacturer pays for these visits. So, not zero revenue! At least for a few years. And I'm sure they'll invent some clearcoat-style bullshit they can aggressively push. Premium-electron filters, or some such crap.
  - chaostheory 8y ago
    Which ones did you own? I've owned both the 1st and 2nd gen Chevy Volt. I have not needed any software updates or patches and my recalls were not serious. The only real maintenance I've done on both cars is for tires and an oil change every 2 years. This is nothing compared to a car with a combustible engine. Yes the manufacturer pays for recalls, but since it's from one large customer; the dealers probably generate less revenue from the manufacturer vs a horde of consumers
  - mikestew 8y ago
    The non-Tesla EVs I've owned have required frequent software updates & had several serious-sounding recalls. Nissan Leaf owner almost since they first rolled off the production line, and not one recall or update was required to keep the vehicle running tip-top. Sibling comment ruled out the Volt, so what were these buggy EVs that had required software updates?
api 8y ago
This is really why I'm a little bearish on Tesla. It's not because of their issues, which can be overcome, but because now that the EV market has been validated other bigger, richer, and more experienced car companies are going to come into the space and offer Tesla a whole lot of competition. Unlike space flight (Elon's other big venture) cars are not an industry that has been totally moribund since the 1980s. It's a lot harder to disrupt a healthy industry than it is to disrupt the walking dead (ULA, Roscosmos, etc.).
- rcMgD2BwE72F 8y ago
  Have you seen the car on stage? https://www.pscp.tv/w/1kvKpaEpLekGE https://www.pscp.tv/w/1kvKpaEpLekGE at 17:00. I would reserve that (it won't be available before 2020 and they have yet to have the battery production ready to make the car in volume!). Tesla's Model Y will be presented in a few months. I seriously doubt that Mercedes will be able to make good EV in volume before Tesla.
  - aphextron 8y ago
    >I would reserve that (it won't be available before 2020 and they have yet to have the battery production ready to make the car in volume!). Tesla's Model Y will be presented in a few months. This. EV production comes down entirely to battery availability. It looks like Mercedes is making the same mistake as Nissan initially did, and thinking they can roll their own battery tech and production facilities. They would be far better off striking deals with LG or Panasonic as the rest outside of Tesla have done. The 64kWh 2019 Nissan leaf (only real competitor to Model 3) will be using LG chem batteries, as does the Chevy Bolt/Volt. There's absolutely no way Mercedes will make up for a 15 year head start on battery tech that Tesla has. I'd expect to see them building EVs at $100k+ MSRP and quantities under 20k/year, and having serious battery degradation issues along with other idiosyncrasies of LiPo chemistry that have taken decades to work out in large scale manufacturing. They will be making small batches of pricey luxury EVs while Tesla, Nissan, and GM are producing millions of units for the masses in 5 years.
    - wilsonnb3 8y ago
madengr 8y ago
I assume the range of the discussed cars is at least on par with the Tesla; > 250 miles?
btashton 8y ago
I really wish companies were more careful with the colors used in graphs. The colors used for Model 3, e-mini, and BMW iX3 are nearly indistinguishable for some forms of color blindness. There are good palettes out there already, please us them!
flexie 8y ago
The article suggests Tesla will produce/sell 24,900 Model 3s in 2018. That's roughly what they produced in Q1 and the production rate has increased since to the point where Tesla will likely produce more than 150,000 Model 3s in 2018, maybe even close to 200,000. According to the graph in the article, Tesla won't even reach that number in 2021.
- ebikelaw 8y ago
  That graph does deserve some explanation, but perhaps it is sales by year rather than production? Tesla is currently running off orders they booked years ago, so production rate is running well ahead of sales rate.
  - rcMgD2BwE72F 8y ago
    >production rate is running well ahead of sales rate. Source?
    - ebikelaw 8y ago
      Tesla's own SEC filings.
      - rcMgD2BwE72F 8y ago
        Quote? I got different information >Robin Ren - Tesla, Inc: >Correct. Another thing I want to point out is that we are actually – since we opened the configurator to the general public in early July, we are seeing an increased demand coming from people who do not currently hold a reservation. I think that's something that we found super exciting, because these are the people who actually had no idea about Model 3 and they heard about Model 3 is available to order, many of them requested test drives and since early July, we have over 60,000 test drive requests in the U.S. alone and these people come into our stores, do the test drive, and they become super excited and they decide to order the car. >So, we believe that the strong demand coming from especially the non-reservation orders is going to dramatically increase as we increase our test drive population. To give you an example, three weeks ago, we had only eight stores having test drive cars to Elon's point earlier. Now we have over 90 stores having test drive cars. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4193497-tesla-tsla-q2-2018-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single https://seekingalpha.com/article/4193497-tesla-tsla-q2-2018-...
onemoresoop 8y ago
Tesla could sell their great battery technology to other manufacturers and they're in the battery business. Tesla ~ Electricity, right?
mtgx 8y ago
These attacks should be taken seriously only when the carmakers actually start promoting them: https://electrek.co/2018/09/03/automakers-not-advertising-electric-vehicles-study/ https://electrek.co/2018/09/03/automakers-not-advertising-el...
- rcMgD2BwE72F 8y ago
  And only when they secure some battery production capacity to make these cars in volume. That's an even better indicator. Mercedes et al. always had big plans to produce batteries. But the plans remains plans. Every year. Tesla, on the contrary, keeps growing its lead over the legacy automakers. They are still have 5 to 10 years ahead on this front and their competitors are still writing press releases...
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]
Shebanator 8y ago
Meh. MB are planning to start production sometime in 2H2019, and no real details about the capabilities of the car. Meanwhile Porsche's Taycan will cost more than the Model S while having Model 3-like specs. The new Audi e-tron will also have 250 mile range and a 6 sec 0-60, both worse than the Tesla Model X. Meanwhile Tesla has another 16 months or so to keep selling the Model 3 in large quantities. Color me unimpressed by the german companies' efforts thus far. It is telling though that most of the companies are focusing on SUVs and not sedans. Tesla needs to up its game with the X and Y to address this.
- izacus 8y ago
  Where did you see large Tesla 3 quantities?
  - Shebanator 8y ago
    They have already sold a lot of Model 3s, and they have 16 months to sell a lot more of them. Personally I don't really care all that much about when they hit 5k/week, 6k/week, or whatever. Even if they stayed at 4k/week that is 240K cars over the next 16 months, plus however many S/X/Y models they sell in that time. The counter argument is that the demand for the 3 will be exhausted at some point, which could well be true. But the availability of the cheaper short range Model 3 will spike demand before that happens. EDIT: fixed broken math
    - toomuchtodo 8y ago
      Indeed, Tesla is supply constrained. The next three years of Fremont production are spoken for (reservations + demand not yet realized as a reservation). Gotta get those production rates up to pay off bonds and amortize capex though.
      - Shebanator 8y ago
        Yes, Tesla's profitability is an entirely different discussion, and IMHO one that really isn't all that relevant to how it will compete with MB, VW, etc. over the next few years.
pasbesoin 8y ago
"attack" Getting very tired of such headlines and such language in reporting. How about "inevitable technological evolution" and a corresponding "business plan". Despite appearances, the world is not constantly on fire -- in every last corner the news cycle touches. I'm glad there is increasing competition in what seems to be the next step in the automobile's evolution and that of personal transport. (Like it or hate it. Just try prying individualized timing and control of travel, from the hands of many in the U.S., for one thing.)
pasta 8y ago
The Jaguar I-pace already is a good Tesla rival. And now Mercedes will follow. I think Tesla won't go away but I think in a few years they will be just an other electric car brand.
- eknkc 8y ago
  I have an outstanding order for I-Pace since march. I don't think they'll manage to ship. The delivery date gets pushed every month. We don't have Tesla here in my country so maintenance is an issue even if you import. That's why I'm not going for Tesla. What Mercedes revealed today is ugly as hell. I think Tesla is still safe.
- Shebanator 8y ago
  The i-pace is a very nice car, but their sales challenges make it unlikely to be a serious competitor. I thought about buying one myself, but Jag's reputation scared me off. https://autoweek.com/article/luxury/jaguar-i-pace-ready-pounce-ev-market https://autoweek.com/article/luxury/jaguar-i-pace-ready-poun... The sold 250 cars in europe in its first full quarter of availability, compared to 7K Tesla models sold: http://carsalesbase.com/european-car-sales-data/jaguar/jaguar-i-pace/ http://carsalesbase.com/european-car-sales-data/jaguar/jagua... http://carsalesbase.com/european-car-sales-data/tesla/ http://carsalesbase.com/european-car-sales-data/tesla/
CodeSheikh 8y ago
Now would be a good time to re-visit "Who Killed the Electric Car?" https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0489037/ https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0489037/
jedberg 8y ago
I'm just waiting for my fully electric minivan. Ideally it would be identical to my current Honda Odyssey, just electric. I tried the model X, and while the driving experience was amazing, the inside felt like a Corolla. I saved $100,000 and got the Honda instead.
nimbius 8y ago
Im a professional engine mechanic for a small chain of service centers, and this reminds me of the hybrid race and the car manufacturers that had to scramble to make up for lost time. The only difference being it wasnt Mercedes and luxury makers, it was consumer giants like Ford. Chevy and Dodge bet boatloads on the american consumers lust for the SUV even if gas hit $5 a gallon, only to find out just how wrong they were in 2008. Few people know this but Hybrid Synergy Drive from Toyota became the de-facto standard in US hybrid systems. every Ford hybrid licenses it, and many Nissan hybrids do as well. Honda developed their own hybrid system but as far as I know it was never licensed. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hybrid_Synergy_Drive#Patent_issues https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hybrid_Synergy_Drive#Patent_is... Now you have the Chevy Volt, which was half of Chevrolet pleading with shareholders and management to embrace electric, and the other half puffing on their cigars and chortling over "battery powered" cars. The result? some kind of design-by-committee plug in hybrid electric with a motor thats a generator? Needless to say the Prius casually crushed it. Finally theres BMW with their i3, but who cares? A p75 will dominate it in terms of both power and range. Many mechanics I know attest that BMW could only bring this to market by building most of the car out of carbon fiber. The glaring fact remains that everyone in the industry is back to 2005 all over again. pulling up their pants and sprinting to keep up all over again with something they all insisted wasnt going anywhere. My apprentice tells me Porsche's Taycan electric will do 0-60 in 3.5 seconds, but again, who cares. a P100 will absolutely embarrass any porsche model gas, or electric, in a sub two second quarter mile with ludicrous speed and still have enough charge to get something at the mcdonalds drivethrough on the way home.
- usaphp 8y ago
  > Finally theres BMW with their i3, but who cares? A p75 will dominate it in terms of both power and range Tesla p75 starts from $77,500 Bmw i3 starts from $44,000, it’s almost $35,000 more expensive. And you can get a used i3 for $20,000 easily, I doubt there are any Tesla’s in that price range
  - rcMgD2BwE72F 8y ago
    Is the $20,000 i3 an EV or a hybrid? If the former, I wouldn't compare it to a Tesla.
krylon 8y ago
As a German, where the car industry is really big, I have felt a little embarrassed for a long time that the German car companies apparently were unable to get off their asses and rethink the engine. I remember 18-20 years ago, fuel cells got a lot of publicity, but nothing ever came of it. In retrospect, I think it was just a decoy. Now these companies, that have been around for over a century in some cases, are facing competition from out of nowhere, and they behave like they were paralyzed. It has been clear now for a few decades that in the long term, internal combustion engines need to be replaced. Car manufacturers appear to have been asleep at the wheel, so to speak. If the industry is finally beginning to wake up, that is a good thing, but I am doubtful they will be able to turn around the ship in time. If they had started seriously some twenty years ago, who knows? But I think it is too late now. It will take quite a while for companies that big to go belly up, but their fate is sealed.
- codeulike 8y ago
  Agreed. The Model S was released 6 years ago and everyone else is still announcing things that are 18 months away.
- sonnyblarney 8y ago
  Fuel cells were not a decoy, there was a really big push for them. The 'problem' is that after a lot of investment ... they just never became economical. Most of the car companies have been doing stuff in this area for many years, and it's not like electric cars are some kind of existential threat to them; they'll be just as happy selling them as combustion engine cars. Cars are not software. It takes time. As for 'waking up' - they've been doing stuff for quite a while now, and the game has barely just begun. Electric car sales are a tiny fraction of sales and that's not going to change overnight. The big auto companies are in a very good position, the entity the most likely to go belly up is Tesla, though I hope they don't.
  - krylon 8y ago
    Regarding fuel cells, I was never able to tell. I remember I was excited when one laptop manufacturer announced a fuel cell-driven laptop, but the project got delayed (which fits your statement), and by the time it got to market, the laptop did not get any more lifetime out of the fuel cell than its battery driven competitors, while being a lot more expensive. Now that you mention it, there is a fuel cell-driven submarine, which of course caters to a market, where money is not quite as much of an issue. If the established car manufacturers were throw their weight (i.e. money) behind electric cars in a big way, they may indeed make Tesla eat their dust. But that is a big if. Large established companies tend to develop a kind of inertia that is almost impossible to counteract, unless the company faces an existential threat. I would be glad to be proven wrong, but I doubt the major German car manufacturers are currently in a position to overcome this type of inertia. Maybe, if the state enacted some laws/regulations to push the manufacturers in the direction of electrical cars, but given the number of jobs that depend on the car industry, again, I am doubtful.
bryanlarsen 8y ago
The real news is from Audi; they've already started mass production of the e-tron. https://techcrunch.com/2018/09/03/audi-starts-mass-production-of-its-first-all-electric-suv/ https://techcrunch.com/2018/09/03/audi-starts-mass-productio... Mercedes isn't starting production until 2H19.
- rcMgD2BwE72F 8y ago
  Mass production? What are the number? I'd have said just "production". How much can they even build with their current battery procurement contracts? As far as I know, Audi doesn't make batteries and their Chinese suppliers still prefer to keep their battery for the domestic market (or will only export them at high margin).
ChuckMcM 8y ago
One of the interesting things that stuck out in this read was that Mercedes is going to invest more money to make electric cars than Tesla has[1]. The superchargers are a weird thing. Tesla has been building them out of their own investment pocket. Is Mercedes going to do that? Are we going to have bespoke recharging stations competing for bits of commercial real estate? How about parking lots where there are the 'mercedes spaces', 'nissan spaces', 'bmw spaces', and 'tesla spaces'? How does that work? I think it is great that BMW and Mercedes are "seriously committed" to electric cars, is now the time to seriously commit to some standards when it comes to charging and maintenance? Will we see third party battery packs at some point? I keep thinking, is there an electric car market or is there a Tesla market? Remember when tablets were just iPads and everything else kind of sucked (and kind of still does?) Is that where we're going in the electric car space? As you can tell I have way more questions than answers here. What does the 'flip' look like when automakers really flip over to electric as the mainstream car? [1] Jim Collins (who is a Tesla bear) notes 19B raised including the acquisition of Solar City -- https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimcollins/2018/04/25/a-brief-history-of-tesla-19-billion-raised-and-9-billion-of-negative-cash-flow/#138b64f63d65 https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimcollins/2018/04/25/a-brief-h...
- prostoalex 8y ago
  https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-germany-daimler/electric-mercedes-opens-german-assault-on-tesla-idUSKCN1LJ17Y https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-germany-daimler/ele... "In another Tesla-inspired move, the three German carmakers are developing their own network of fast-chargers along major highways in a partnership with Ford".
- joering2 8y ago
  > Is Mercedes going to do that? One of top execs at MB is my good friend so I'm getting this information from top source; he told me their idea is to go with replaceable batteries. You will have some sort of docking station in your garage and when you park short-term the car flips the batteries for you with a loaded one, or long term just auto-plug itself and charges overnight. No cables, no mess. They work on this solution together with Citroen and BMW but I cannot find anything official or online. Ii will be offered to gas stations around the country and will take 1/3rd of a space that car washes are taking currently. Supposedly you won't even need to get out of the car - you just drive on it, stop, wait for green light, continue with freshly loaded battery! Much more comfortable solution than Tesla's stations. BTW: I spend summers in Florida and looks like Teslas supercharges are dissapearing; I seen plenty of them at all Wholefoods parking lots in number of 10 or 16; now there is only one.
goshx 8y ago
I measure Tesla's success by how many major auto makers they force to adopt electric vehicles. Even if Tesla is not the leader in the segment in a couple decades, if the majority of cars on the road are electric, this is a big win for everyone.
polskibus 8y ago
Why electric and not hydrogen?
- rcMgD2BwE72F 8y ago
  Because efficiency: https://insideevs.com/efficiency-compared-battery-electric-73-hydrogen-22-ice-13/ https://insideevs.com/efficiency-compared-battery-electric-7...
  - polskibus 8y ago
    Thanks, that was informative
- xedeon 8y ago
  Hydrogen is extremely inefficient and hard to transport/store: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f7MzFfuNOtY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f7MzFfuNOtY
  - yalph 8y ago
    Its really crazy how a company like Toyota insisted on it for so long.
    - xedeon 8y ago
      They are actually still on it and are doubling down their efforts this year based on many reports[1]. 1. http://www.thedrive.com/news/22429/toyota-to-double-down-on-hydrogen-fuel-cell-vehicles-as-industry-goes-electric http://www.thedrive.com/news/22429/toyota-to-double-down-on-...
eumenides1 8y ago
People are talking about the big manufacturers making competitors to the Model S/X/3, but who is a making the core component (i.e the battery)? Tesla is the only one doing both ATM. Tesla will happily make batteries for other big manufacturers and will succeed as long a electric car uptake is standardized.
- empath75 8y ago
  Do you mean panasonic
  - rcMgD2BwE72F 8y ago
    Panasonic makes cells (on Tesla's specs) not batteries.
  - xedeon 8y ago
    I refer you to: https://www.tesla.com/gigafactory https://www.tesla.com/gigafactory
xae342 8y ago
Tesla was founded in 2003, that’s a long time for all these companies to have been sitting on the side line. Subaru is still in no rush.
- sabareesh 8y ago
  Well when you are trying to change the industry while doing invention this is very acceptable
EamonnMR 8y ago
A rugged, fun electric that can be repaired by mortals would be the real sell. An all-electric should be simpler than an IC, not more complicated.
izzydata 8y ago
I'm rather unfamiliar with electric vehicles, but I was curious if all of these future EVs will have a standardized charging port. I get the feeling in order for there to be electric "gas stations" they will all need to have the same plug.
codeulike 8y ago
"Pricing has not been announced"
akmiller 8y ago
Every one of these reads like all those old 'next iPhone killer' headlines. Elon's publicly stated goal was driving more EV adoption whether it is Tesla or others and he's most definitely succeeded at that. That being said, there is far more to Tesla's than just being an EV at this point and that won't be killed anytime soon!
icc97 8y ago
Perhaps as Musk gets further down the road of actually being a car manufacturer his thoughts will change, but he should welcome this. He gave out the patents freely so that more competition would come, he wants the electric car market as a whole to improve. That said I can't say I'm overwhelmed by this. I think both Tesla and to a lesser extent the Nissan leaf have better concepts. The I-pace, EQC, e-tron all still sound like geek gimmicks. Tesla and Nissan have built great cars that happen to be electric.
deltron3030 8y ago
The interior design looks very cybertrashy and pseudofuturistic. Why is the automotive industry so diconnected from general design trends and minimalism?
gcheong 8y ago
Even if Musk loses the profitability game he will have won in helping to push ICE manufacturers to produce electric vehicles which really seemed to be his ultimate goal considering he said he would open source Tesla technology. https://www.tesla.com/blog/all-our-patent-are-belong-you https://www.tesla.com/blog/all-our-patent-are-belong-you
- vertexFarm 8y ago
  Exactly. It's the "match that ignites an industry" and increases competition in order to create an economic imperative for the rest of the industry players to make electric products. Supposedly this has been goal number one the entire time, so Tesla ought to be very proud to have played a role in finally breaking the electric car into the mainstream--not as a single company which may persist or may fail, but as an enduring concept adopted across the industry. https://medium.com/@cormiston/the-elon-musk-business-model-canvas-b0964e8c880f https://medium.com/@cormiston/the-elon-musk-business-model-c... Musk has his flaws, but it's not a bad strategy.
newnewpdro 8y ago
After hearing Musk describe in more detail how the future Roadster has achieved its massive range and current capacity (two 100Kwh Model S batteries stacked), I've become a lot less confident in Tesla's technology advantage. If it were mostly due to battery tech breakthroughs, the situation would be much different. But no, it's just a heavier, bigger pile of existing batteries. The established manufacturers just need to decide to commit to competing with Tesla. They already have mass production solved, and there doesn't seem to be any major technological breakthrough Tesla owns preventing them from competing on performance.
cs702 8y ago
Tesla deserves kudos for getting companies like Mercedes, Audi, Porsche, and Jaguar to invest gobs of money to launch electric cars. Extrapolating from the size of Mercedes' investment ("over $12 billion," according to the article), I suspect the industry is spending north of $50 billion to launch a range of new electric vehicles over the coming years. For comparison, Tesla's annual capital spending is between $2 and $3 billion.
mmanfrin 8y ago
I wish car companies would stop trying to make EVs so goddamn garish looking. This car is so abysmally covered in blue LEDs that is just fucking SCREAMS "I'M AN EV" in the least subtle way possible.
King-Aaron 8y ago
I just want a company to release a two-mount/north-south or three-mount/east-west electric drivetrain kit, that I can adapt OE mounts to and fit to most consumer vehicles. If Chevrolet etc can sell crate engines, I want to see Tesla (etc) sell crate drivelines.
opsroller 8y ago
When your approach to marketing is “My product will kill this other product”, you most likely are approaching it wrong.
kerrybright3000 8y ago
Dang, this car looks really cool. Like TESLA cool https://www.wired.com/story/mercedes-benz-eqc-electric-suv/ https://www.wired.com/story/mercedes-benz-eqc-electric-suv/
jasonvorhe 8y ago
I'm always amused by the constant hating on Tesla while they at least manage to ship and have products that aren't just announcements and just have issues with scaling up and some parts of the hull not being perfectly aligned while everyone else is just showing off prototype after prototype, luxury cars or overpriced entry level cars that don't even come close to Tesla's mileage. Faraday Future and Lucid also don't seem to be able to get their act together. This leaves just Tesla, Chevy with Bolt and VW with the E Golf. I'd also be surprised if Tesla wasn't going to end up being the quasi monopoly battery manufacturer in the long run.
snarfybarfy 8y ago
We could have had nice electric cars like 10 or even 20 years earlier if legislation had limited normal cars to something reasonable like 40 horsepower / 30 kW. (yeah go on and tell me about your family of 9 that needs to go up a 20% incline in strong headwinds;-) But no, it ended up being an arms race to have the biggest vehicle on the road. And ironically most people in those huge contraptions cry about there not being enough parking spaces.
outericky 8y ago
Why do we need to target Tesla? Why not broaden the EV market and target ICE vehicles?

455 points by antr 8y ago

I've been waiting for a big automaker to respond to Tesla in full. If they've managed to ignite competition in electric vehicles, then we all win, even if Tesla goes under.

wmeredith 8y ago
Same here. This was Tesla’s stated purpose from the outset.
- GW150914 8y ago
  I think it’s unlikely that the majority of Tesla’s massive stock valuation comes from people who just wanted to see the likes of Mercedes hammer the final mail into Tesla’s coffin. I think there’s even a chance that they wanted to make money! If some people are to be believed, they even expected Tesla to be “the new GE” and that cars were only the beginning. At the very least I think the idea that Tesla sought to be killed ignominiously by rivals while struggling financially was an unlikely game plan.
  - zazen 8y ago
    This sounds like a reasonable point to me, and I'm not sure why this and your other post in this thread are being down-voted. Elon Musk might well be OK with Tesla cratering, provided he gets to make an electric-car-shaped dent in the universe in the process. But Tesla, the still-publicly-traded company, can't plan to fail.
    - GW150914 8y ago
      This sounds like a reasonable point to me, and I'm not sure why this and your other post in this thread are being down-voted. In my limited experience comments critical of Tesla are immediately downvoted, but often recover after a while if they're making good points. I think people can be very defensive of Tesla and Musk, and they vote accordingly. Fortunately the community at large seems to be fair enough to override that. The real problem is that a lot of articles which are less than fulsome in their praise of Tesla are rapidly flagged to death. It’s good to see this article gaining some traction.
- dingaling 8y ago
  At the outset Tesla's purpose was to build hybrids.
neom 8y ago
Not to be pedantic but... I thought Toyota got the ball rolling with the Prius and Tesla stoked the fire? (never mind, you said ignite competition) Either way, you're totally right, we all win. :)
- tonyedgecombe 8y ago
  Nissan/Renault deserve some recognition as well.
- faitswulff 8y ago
  Did Toyota release a full-electric Prius? If so, I wasn't aware of it. The other thing Tesla did was make it a status symbol to have an EV, so there's that.
  - wilsonnb3 8y ago
    They've got a plug in hybrid version called the Prius Prime. It's only got 50 miles or so of all electric range if I'm remembering correctly.
- rch 8y ago
  Introducing the Prius (or Leaf) on the economy side of the market didn't put much pressure on anyone. I don't believe the incumbents started making serious strategic adjustments until Tesla started taking sales on the high-margin side. Maybe only the timeline shifted, but that's still substantive, IMO.
  - stcredzero 8y ago
    If Nissan would license battery cooling technology from Tesla, the current Leaf would almost be in the same class as the Tesla Model 3. It's less stylish, slower, more "econobox," but seems only to lack the ability to rapid charge more than once a trip, due to thermal issues. (Also probably results in poorer battery longevity.)
    - codeulike 8y ago
mc32 8y ago
They’ll do well if they let engineering do the driving. If marketing gets to dictate direction, I’m afraid it’ll turn into a Frankenstinian electric monster.
aglavine 8y ago
Probably an expanding electric offer benefits Tesla at this time. It creates more demand by publicity and makes electric vehicles more mainstream
martin_bech 8y ago
Even as a Tesla stockholder and Tesla Model S owner I completely agree. However, all of these cars, are going to market late next year, and are a bit slower and with less range than the current Tesla lineup. The car that shakes up the game, is the upcomming Porsche Taycan. The first var to one up Tesla on charging speed, and the looks of the car are amazing!
- jehlakj 8y ago
  Time to cash out soon?
- pjc50 8y ago
  Slower and less range but cheaper has to be where most of the market is.
  - martin_bech 8y ago
    These cars I dont think will be cheaper, case in point the Jaguar I-pace. And the Model 3 is going to outsell the Nissan Leaf, so Im not sure, that cheaper is the way to go, yet.
- kenhwang 8y ago
  What's probably scary about the Taycan is it's targeting the profitable segment of Tesla's lineup. Tesla's strategy of selling more expensive cars to fund R&D for cheaper cars completely falls apart if they can't sell the more expensive cars. Interestingly, Porsche's strategy is almost opposite of Tesla's where they sell cheaper volume cars (Macan, Cayenne, Panamera) to fund R&D for their expensive cars (GT2, GT3, 918).
  - martin_bech 8y ago
    I think there is room for both, and traditional combustion engines cars, will mostly be canabalised. But I am actively considering, replacing my Model S, with a Taycan (dependant on final price, charging options etc). The Tesla supercharging network, is a huge draw, but Porsche is pursuing something similar, with even faster charging.
AtlasBarfed 8y ago
Incumbents are hampered by: 1) lack of vertical integration in battery supply like Tesla's gigafactory 2) inability to properly design and market EVs 3) a dealer network that is at best ignorant and probably hostile to EVs 4) no supercharger network. They could use dealerships buuuut, see #3
- kurtisc 8y ago
  Tesla buy their batteries from Panasonic.
codeulike 8y ago
Tesla essentially achieved their mission (accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy) when they announced the Model 3 and got 400,000 reservations. That started something that we are seeing being played out now, and it will continue to happen whatever happens to Tesla.

dsfyu404ed 8y ago

An aircraft carrier can't turn on a dime but when it eventually does turn around you've got a fuckin' aircraft carrier! Tesla quietly crept around and made electric cars cool and economically viable while the industry had it's backs turned. They've certainly succeeded in becoming a reputable brand, everyone's at least heard of them. It remains to be seen whether they'll continue to be viable once the incumbents bring into play their ability to write fat checks and spin up production facilities without teething issues at every turn. The big players in the car industry aren't ignoring EVs anymore. Personally, my money is on GM dominating the market. Maybe there's a place for Tesla and some of the later players in the high end.

oblio 8y ago
The funny thing is, had Tesla just said: we don't need to innovate upon lean manufacturing at the same time as we're innovating on electric cars, they'd be super safe now. Instead they had to automate everything, then rollback, and now are limping towards 10k cars per week.
- dao- 8y ago
  > The funny thing is, had Tesla just said: we don't need to innovate upon lean manufacturing Or had they done it the right way like BMW did with the i3. Source: BMW i3 Teardown: An Electronics Masterpiece: http://www.techinsights.com/teardown.com/bmw-i3-teardown-electronic-masterpiece/ http://www.techinsights.com/teardown.com/bmw-i3-teardown-ele... Tearing Down the Model T of Our Time: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uDr4L6BzpP8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uDr4L6BzpP8 (both are about the same teardown by Munro & Associates)
  - rcMgD2BwE72F 8y ago
    Thanks but the Model 3 teardown shows that Tesla knows how to build EV profitably: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pAS-yjWj9DY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pAS-yjWj9DY The i3 one might be technically interesting, but the car was never intended to be produced in volume so it's just a nice niche thing.

HaloZero 8y ago

The big thing about Tesla is they have their supercharger network, are these other brands expected to run their own versions or just use Tesla's stations?

dabeeeenster 8y ago
They can't use Telsa's network. If that's what you meant? I took delivery of a 2018 Nissan Leaf 4 months ago in the UK. The car is amazing - the charging network is a sad joke. Luckily I have a drive so largely negated, but the problem for Tesla competitors is, the larger the battery the slower the charging infrastructure feels. If you need to recharge 70kwh on a 48kwh charging port, its not great waiting 1.5 hours at a motorway services. None of the competition are aiming at the model 3 or Leaf either, which is where the real market is. Nissan have announced a ~60kwh Leaf for 2019. They seem to be the only ones who are really close behind tesla.
- mikeyouse 8y ago
  Chevy has been selling a 60kWh - 400km EV that costs $30k after Federal Tax rebate since late 2016/early 2017: https://www.chevrolet.com/electric/bolt-ev-electric-car https://www.chevrolet.com/electric/bolt-ev-electric-car
  - dabeeeenster 8y ago
    Sorry yes my bad - but its not for sale in the UK
    - mikeyouse 8y ago
      Ah right, that whole localization thing. I forgot that GM sold Opel as well, so they don't have the same vehicles any more.
      - dabeeeenster 8y ago
        It's sold as Vauxhall in the UK and Australia. Terrible brand here in the UK.

fermigier 8y ago

Renault has been doing electric cars for some time. One of my friends drove me recently in his Renault Zoe (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renault_Zoe https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renault_Zoe ) and I was favorably impressed. A new, cheaper and with extended range, version should be available next year: http://www.auto-moto.com/nouveautes/scoop/renault-zoe-2019-174346.html http://www.auto-moto.com/nouveautes/scoop/renault-zoe-2019-1...

bufferoverflow 8y ago
Renault Zoe has a small battery, only 210km, while Model 3 is 500km.
- GW150914 8y ago
  Disclaimer. The following comment was re-written after Greg replied: Responding to Greg’s points, if you buy out the battery lease on the long range car, it’s $34,000 dollars. The Tesla Model 3 you can buy today starts at $54,000 dollars. I didn’t know about NEDC vs EPA, so I was off about the range. Looking here it seems like a rough average for the range is 284km. https://pushevs.com/2018/07/29/range-efficiency-test-of-10-electric-cars/ https://pushevs.com/2018/07/29/range-efficiency-test-of-10-e... Maybe it’s worth it for most people to pay $20,000 for ~200km more range, but certainly not in Europe. I’m also consistently met with points that 99% of trips are below 70mi. Plus as I said earlier, you get actual instruments and not one massive touchscreen, and quality control from a company not struggling to make cars at any cost. Then, if something breaks you don’t have to wait months for the part, and if you order a car now, you get it, you don’t go on an indeterminate wait list while they hold your money.
  - greglindahl 8y ago
    You're comparing NEDC range with EPA range, and the price to buy a Model 3 with the price to buy a Zoe with a leased battery.
- ceejayoz 8y ago
  Range is likely less of an issue for European purchasers.

btilly 8y ago

Just wait until it really sinks in for their dealers that selling electric cars means greatly reduced maintenance. Given what fraction of their dealers' revenue comes from maintenance, this will be a left hand doesn't know what the right hand is doing kind of situation as the manufacturer and the dealer's interests fail to align. Tesla worked hard to avoid having dealers. And I believe that dealers will be a weakness for the legacy auto industry here.

dabeeeenster 8y ago
There was an article about EVs in the FT this weekend, stating that several manufacturers dont include EV's in their dealer's sales targets, which is only going to make this issue worse.
robterrell 8y ago
The non-Tesla EVs I've owned have required frequent software updates & had several serious-sounding recalls. I assume the manufacturer pays for these visits. So, not zero revenue! At least for a few years. And I'm sure they'll invent some clearcoat-style bullshit they can aggressively push. Premium-electron filters, or some such crap.
- chaostheory 8y ago
  Which ones did you own? I've owned both the 1st and 2nd gen Chevy Volt. I have not needed any software updates or patches and my recalls were not serious. The only real maintenance I've done on both cars is for tires and an oil change every 2 years. This is nothing compared to a car with a combustible engine. Yes the manufacturer pays for recalls, but since it's from one large customer; the dealers probably generate less revenue from the manufacturer vs a horde of consumers
- mikestew 8y ago
  The non-Tesla EVs I've owned have required frequent software updates & had several serious-sounding recalls. Nissan Leaf owner almost since they first rolled off the production line, and not one recall or update was required to keep the vehicle running tip-top. Sibling comment ruled out the Volt, so what were these buggy EVs that had required software updates?

api 8y ago

This is really why I'm a little bearish on Tesla. It's not because of their issues, which can be overcome, but because now that the EV market has been validated other bigger, richer, and more experienced car companies are going to come into the space and offer Tesla a whole lot of competition. Unlike space flight (Elon's other big venture) cars are not an industry that has been totally moribund since the 1980s. It's a lot harder to disrupt a healthy industry than it is to disrupt the walking dead (ULA, Roscosmos, etc.).

rcMgD2BwE72F 8y ago
Have you seen the car on stage? https://www.pscp.tv/w/1kvKpaEpLekGE https://www.pscp.tv/w/1kvKpaEpLekGE at 17:00. I would reserve that (it won't be available before 2020 and they have yet to have the battery production ready to make the car in volume!). Tesla's Model Y will be presented in a few months. I seriously doubt that Mercedes will be able to make good EV in volume before Tesla.
- aphextron 8y ago
  >I would reserve that (it won't be available before 2020 and they have yet to have the battery production ready to make the car in volume!). Tesla's Model Y will be presented in a few months. This. EV production comes down entirely to battery availability. It looks like Mercedes is making the same mistake as Nissan initially did, and thinking they can roll their own battery tech and production facilities. They would be far better off striking deals with LG or Panasonic as the rest outside of Tesla have done. The 64kWh 2019 Nissan leaf (only real competitor to Model 3) will be using LG chem batteries, as does the Chevy Bolt/Volt. There's absolutely no way Mercedes will make up for a 15 year head start on battery tech that Tesla has. I'd expect to see them building EVs at $100k+ MSRP and quantities under 20k/year, and having serious battery degradation issues along with other idiosyncrasies of LiPo chemistry that have taken decades to work out in large scale manufacturing. They will be making small batches of pricey luxury EVs while Tesla, Nissan, and GM are producing millions of units for the masses in 5 years.
  - wilsonnb3 8y ago

madengr 8y ago

I assume the range of the discussed cars is at least on par with the Tesla; > 250 miles?

btashton 8y ago

I really wish companies were more careful with the colors used in graphs. The colors used for Model 3, e-mini, and BMW iX3 are nearly indistinguishable for some forms of color blindness. There are good palettes out there already, please us them!

flexie 8y ago

The article suggests Tesla will produce/sell 24,900 Model 3s in 2018. That's roughly what they produced in Q1 and the production rate has increased since to the point where Tesla will likely produce more than 150,000 Model 3s in 2018, maybe even close to 200,000. According to the graph in the article, Tesla won't even reach that number in 2021.

ebikelaw 8y ago
That graph does deserve some explanation, but perhaps it is sales by year rather than production? Tesla is currently running off orders they booked years ago, so production rate is running well ahead of sales rate.
- rcMgD2BwE72F 8y ago
  >production rate is running well ahead of sales rate. Source?
  - ebikelaw 8y ago
    Tesla's own SEC filings.
    - rcMgD2BwE72F 8y ago
      Quote? I got different information >Robin Ren - Tesla, Inc: >Correct. Another thing I want to point out is that we are actually – since we opened the configurator to the general public in early July, we are seeing an increased demand coming from people who do not currently hold a reservation. I think that's something that we found super exciting, because these are the people who actually had no idea about Model 3 and they heard about Model 3 is available to order, many of them requested test drives and since early July, we have over 60,000 test drive requests in the U.S. alone and these people come into our stores, do the test drive, and they become super excited and they decide to order the car. >So, we believe that the strong demand coming from especially the non-reservation orders is going to dramatically increase as we increase our test drive population. To give you an example, three weeks ago, we had only eight stores having test drive cars to Elon's point earlier. Now we have over 90 stores having test drive cars. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4193497-tesla-tsla-q2-2018-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single https://seekingalpha.com/article/4193497-tesla-tsla-q2-2018-...

onemoresoop 8y ago

Tesla could sell their great battery technology to other manufacturers and they're in the battery business. Tesla ~ Electricity, right?

mtgx 8y ago

These attacks should be taken seriously only when the carmakers actually start promoting them: https://electrek.co/2018/09/03/automakers-not-advertising-electric-vehicles-study/ https://electrek.co/2018/09/03/automakers-not-advertising-el...

rcMgD2BwE72F 8y ago
And only when they secure some battery production capacity to make these cars in volume. That's an even better indicator. Mercedes et al. always had big plans to produce batteries. But the plans remains plans. Every year. Tesla, on the contrary, keeps growing its lead over the legacy automakers. They are still have 5 to 10 years ahead on this front and their competitors are still writing press releases...
deleted 8y ago
[deleted]

Shebanator 8y ago

Meh. MB are planning to start production sometime in 2H2019, and no real details about the capabilities of the car. Meanwhile Porsche's Taycan will cost more than the Model S while having Model 3-like specs. The new Audi e-tron will also have 250 mile range and a 6 sec 0-60, both worse than the Tesla Model X. Meanwhile Tesla has another 16 months or so to keep selling the Model 3 in large quantities. Color me unimpressed by the german companies' efforts thus far. It is telling though that most of the companies are focusing on SUVs and not sedans. Tesla needs to up its game with the X and Y to address this.

izacus 8y ago
Where did you see large Tesla 3 quantities?
- Shebanator 8y ago
  They have already sold a lot of Model 3s, and they have 16 months to sell a lot more of them. Personally I don't really care all that much about when they hit 5k/week, 6k/week, or whatever. Even if they stayed at 4k/week that is 240K cars over the next 16 months, plus however many S/X/Y models they sell in that time. The counter argument is that the demand for the 3 will be exhausted at some point, which could well be true. But the availability of the cheaper short range Model 3 will spike demand before that happens. EDIT: fixed broken math
  - toomuchtodo 8y ago
    Indeed, Tesla is supply constrained. The next three years of Fremont production are spoken for (reservations + demand not yet realized as a reservation). Gotta get those production rates up to pay off bonds and amortize capex though.
    - Shebanator 8y ago
      Yes, Tesla's profitability is an entirely different discussion, and IMHO one that really isn't all that relevant to how it will compete with MB, VW, etc. over the next few years.

pasbesoin 8y ago

"attack" Getting very tired of such headlines and such language in reporting. How about "inevitable technological evolution" and a corresponding "business plan". Despite appearances, the world is not constantly on fire -- in every last corner the news cycle touches. I'm glad there is increasing competition in what seems to be the next step in the automobile's evolution and that of personal transport. (Like it or hate it. Just try prying individualized timing and control of travel, from the hands of many in the U.S., for one thing.)

pasta 8y ago

The Jaguar I-pace already is a good Tesla rival. And now Mercedes will follow. I think Tesla won't go away but I think in a few years they will be just an other electric car brand.

eknkc 8y ago
I have an outstanding order for I-Pace since march. I don't think they'll manage to ship. The delivery date gets pushed every month. We don't have Tesla here in my country so maintenance is an issue even if you import. That's why I'm not going for Tesla. What Mercedes revealed today is ugly as hell. I think Tesla is still safe.
Shebanator 8y ago
The i-pace is a very nice car, but their sales challenges make it unlikely to be a serious competitor. I thought about buying one myself, but Jag's reputation scared me off. https://autoweek.com/article/luxury/jaguar-i-pace-ready-pounce-ev-market https://autoweek.com/article/luxury/jaguar-i-pace-ready-poun... The sold 250 cars in europe in its first full quarter of availability, compared to 7K Tesla models sold: http://carsalesbase.com/european-car-sales-data/jaguar/jaguar-i-pace/ http://carsalesbase.com/european-car-sales-data/jaguar/jagua... http://carsalesbase.com/european-car-sales-data/tesla/ http://carsalesbase.com/european-car-sales-data/tesla/

CodeSheikh 8y ago

Now would be a good time to re-visit "Who Killed the Electric Car?" https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0489037/ https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0489037/

jedberg 8y ago

I'm just waiting for my fully electric minivan. Ideally it would be identical to my current Honda Odyssey, just electric. I tried the model X, and while the driving experience was amazing, the inside felt like a Corolla. I saved $100,000 and got the Honda instead.

nimbius 8y ago

Im a professional engine mechanic for a small chain of service centers, and this reminds me of the hybrid race and the car manufacturers that had to scramble to make up for lost time. The only difference being it wasnt Mercedes and luxury makers, it was consumer giants like Ford. Chevy and Dodge bet boatloads on the american consumers lust for the SUV even if gas hit $5 a gallon, only to find out just how wrong they were in 2008. Few people know this but Hybrid Synergy Drive from Toyota became the de-facto standard in US hybrid systems. every Ford hybrid licenses it, and many Nissan hybrids do as well. Honda developed their own hybrid system but as far as I know it was never licensed. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hybrid_Synergy_Drive#Patent_issues https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hybrid_Synergy_Drive#Patent_is... Now you have the Chevy Volt, which was half of Chevrolet pleading with shareholders and management to embrace electric, and the other half puffing on their cigars and chortling over "battery powered" cars. The result? some kind of design-by-committee plug in hybrid electric with a motor thats a generator? Needless to say the Prius casually crushed it. Finally theres BMW with their i3, but who cares? A p75 will dominate it in terms of both power and range. Many mechanics I know attest that BMW could only bring this to market by building most of the car out of carbon fiber. The glaring fact remains that everyone in the industry is back to 2005 all over again. pulling up their pants and sprinting to keep up all over again with something they all insisted wasnt going anywhere. My apprentice tells me Porsche's Taycan electric will do 0-60 in 3.5 seconds, but again, who cares. a P100 will absolutely embarrass any porsche model gas, or electric, in a sub two second quarter mile with ludicrous speed and still have enough charge to get something at the mcdonalds drivethrough on the way home.

usaphp 8y ago
> Finally theres BMW with their i3, but who cares? A p75 will dominate it in terms of both power and range Tesla p75 starts from $77,500 Bmw i3 starts from $44,000, it’s almost $35,000 more expensive. And you can get a used i3 for $20,000 easily, I doubt there are any Tesla’s in that price range
- rcMgD2BwE72F 8y ago
  Is the $20,000 i3 an EV or a hybrid? If the former, I wouldn't compare it to a Tesla.

krylon 8y ago

As a German, where the car industry is really big, I have felt a little embarrassed for a long time that the German car companies apparently were unable to get off their asses and rethink the engine. I remember 18-20 years ago, fuel cells got a lot of publicity, but nothing ever came of it. In retrospect, I think it was just a decoy. Now these companies, that have been around for over a century in some cases, are facing competition from out of nowhere, and they behave like they were paralyzed. It has been clear now for a few decades that in the long term, internal combustion engines need to be replaced. Car manufacturers appear to have been asleep at the wheel, so to speak. If the industry is finally beginning to wake up, that is a good thing, but I am doubtful they will be able to turn around the ship in time. If they had started seriously some twenty years ago, who knows? But I think it is too late now. It will take quite a while for companies that big to go belly up, but their fate is sealed.

codeulike 8y ago
Agreed. The Model S was released 6 years ago and everyone else is still announcing things that are 18 months away.
sonnyblarney 8y ago
Fuel cells were not a decoy, there was a really big push for them. The 'problem' is that after a lot of investment ... they just never became economical. Most of the car companies have been doing stuff in this area for many years, and it's not like electric cars are some kind of existential threat to them; they'll be just as happy selling them as combustion engine cars. Cars are not software. It takes time. As for 'waking up' - they've been doing stuff for quite a while now, and the game has barely just begun. Electric car sales are a tiny fraction of sales and that's not going to change overnight. The big auto companies are in a very good position, the entity the most likely to go belly up is Tesla, though I hope they don't.
- krylon 8y ago
  Regarding fuel cells, I was never able to tell. I remember I was excited when one laptop manufacturer announced a fuel cell-driven laptop, but the project got delayed (which fits your statement), and by the time it got to market, the laptop did not get any more lifetime out of the fuel cell than its battery driven competitors, while being a lot more expensive. Now that you mention it, there is a fuel cell-driven submarine, which of course caters to a market, where money is not quite as much of an issue. If the established car manufacturers were throw their weight (i.e. money) behind electric cars in a big way, they may indeed make Tesla eat their dust. But that is a big if. Large established companies tend to develop a kind of inertia that is almost impossible to counteract, unless the company faces an existential threat. I would be glad to be proven wrong, but I doubt the major German car manufacturers are currently in a position to overcome this type of inertia. Maybe, if the state enacted some laws/regulations to push the manufacturers in the direction of electrical cars, but given the number of jobs that depend on the car industry, again, I am doubtful.

bryanlarsen 8y ago

The real news is from Audi; they've already started mass production of the e-tron. https://techcrunch.com/2018/09/03/audi-starts-mass-production-of-its-first-all-electric-suv/ https://techcrunch.com/2018/09/03/audi-starts-mass-productio... Mercedes isn't starting production until 2H19.

rcMgD2BwE72F 8y ago
Mass production? What are the number? I'd have said just "production". How much can they even build with their current battery procurement contracts? As far as I know, Audi doesn't make batteries and their Chinese suppliers still prefer to keep their battery for the domestic market (or will only export them at high margin).

ChuckMcM 8y ago

One of the interesting things that stuck out in this read was that Mercedes is going to invest more money to make electric cars than Tesla has[1]. The superchargers are a weird thing. Tesla has been building them out of their own investment pocket. Is Mercedes going to do that? Are we going to have bespoke recharging stations competing for bits of commercial real estate? How about parking lots where there are the 'mercedes spaces', 'nissan spaces', 'bmw spaces', and 'tesla spaces'? How does that work? I think it is great that BMW and Mercedes are "seriously committed" to electric cars, is now the time to seriously commit to some standards when it comes to charging and maintenance? Will we see third party battery packs at some point? I keep thinking, is there an electric car market or is there a Tesla market? Remember when tablets were just iPads and everything else kind of sucked (and kind of still does?) Is that where we're going in the electric car space? As you can tell I have way more questions than answers here. What does the 'flip' look like when automakers really flip over to electric as the mainstream car? [1] Jim Collins (who is a Tesla bear) notes 19B raised including the acquisition of Solar City -- https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimcollins/2018/04/25/a-brief-history-of-tesla-19-billion-raised-and-9-billion-of-negative-cash-flow/#138b64f63d65 https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimcollins/2018/04/25/a-brief-h...

prostoalex 8y ago
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-germany-daimler/electric-mercedes-opens-german-assault-on-tesla-idUSKCN1LJ17Y https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-germany-daimler/ele... "In another Tesla-inspired move, the three German carmakers are developing their own network of fast-chargers along major highways in a partnership with Ford".
joering2 8y ago
> Is Mercedes going to do that? One of top execs at MB is my good friend so I'm getting this information from top source; he told me their idea is to go with replaceable batteries. You will have some sort of docking station in your garage and when you park short-term the car flips the batteries for you with a loaded one, or long term just auto-plug itself and charges overnight. No cables, no mess. They work on this solution together with Citroen and BMW but I cannot find anything official or online. Ii will be offered to gas stations around the country and will take 1/3rd of a space that car washes are taking currently. Supposedly you won't even need to get out of the car - you just drive on it, stop, wait for green light, continue with freshly loaded battery! Much more comfortable solution than Tesla's stations. BTW: I spend summers in Florida and looks like Teslas supercharges are dissapearing; I seen plenty of them at all Wholefoods parking lots in number of 10 or 16; now there is only one.

goshx 8y ago

I measure Tesla's success by how many major auto makers they force to adopt electric vehicles. Even if Tesla is not the leader in the segment in a couple decades, if the majority of cars on the road are electric, this is a big win for everyone.

polskibus 8y ago

Why electric and not hydrogen?

rcMgD2BwE72F 8y ago
Because efficiency: https://insideevs.com/efficiency-compared-battery-electric-73-hydrogen-22-ice-13/ https://insideevs.com/efficiency-compared-battery-electric-7...
- polskibus 8y ago
  Thanks, that was informative
xedeon 8y ago
Hydrogen is extremely inefficient and hard to transport/store: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f7MzFfuNOtY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f7MzFfuNOtY
- yalph 8y ago
  Its really crazy how a company like Toyota insisted on it for so long.
  - xedeon 8y ago
    They are actually still on it and are doubling down their efforts this year based on many reports[1]. 1. http://www.thedrive.com/news/22429/toyota-to-double-down-on-hydrogen-fuel-cell-vehicles-as-industry-goes-electric http://www.thedrive.com/news/22429/toyota-to-double-down-on-...

eumenides1 8y ago

People are talking about the big manufacturers making competitors to the Model S/X/3, but who is a making the core component (i.e the battery)? Tesla is the only one doing both ATM. Tesla will happily make batteries for other big manufacturers and will succeed as long a electric car uptake is standardized.

empath75 8y ago
Do you mean panasonic
- rcMgD2BwE72F 8y ago
  Panasonic makes cells (on Tesla's specs) not batteries.
- xedeon 8y ago
  I refer you to: https://www.tesla.com/gigafactory https://www.tesla.com/gigafactory

xae342 8y ago

Tesla was founded in 2003, that’s a long time for all these companies to have been sitting on the side line. Subaru is still in no rush.

sabareesh 8y ago
Well when you are trying to change the industry while doing invention this is very acceptable

EamonnMR 8y ago

A rugged, fun electric that can be repaired by mortals would be the real sell. An all-electric should be simpler than an IC, not more complicated.

izzydata 8y ago

I'm rather unfamiliar with electric vehicles, but I was curious if all of these future EVs will have a standardized charging port. I get the feeling in order for there to be electric "gas stations" they will all need to have the same plug.

codeulike 8y ago

"Pricing has not been announced"

akmiller 8y ago

Every one of these reads like all those old 'next iPhone killer' headlines. Elon's publicly stated goal was driving more EV adoption whether it is Tesla or others and he's most definitely succeeded at that. That being said, there is far more to Tesla's than just being an EV at this point and that won't be killed anytime soon!

icc97 8y ago

Perhaps as Musk gets further down the road of actually being a car manufacturer his thoughts will change, but he should welcome this. He gave out the patents freely so that more competition would come, he wants the electric car market as a whole to improve. That said I can't say I'm overwhelmed by this. I think both Tesla and to a lesser extent the Nissan leaf have better concepts. The I-pace, EQC, e-tron all still sound like geek gimmicks. Tesla and Nissan have built great cars that happen to be electric.

deltron3030 8y ago

The interior design looks very cybertrashy and pseudofuturistic. Why is the automotive industry so diconnected from general design trends and minimalism?

gcheong 8y ago

Even if Musk loses the profitability game he will have won in helping to push ICE manufacturers to produce electric vehicles which really seemed to be his ultimate goal considering he said he would open source Tesla technology. https://www.tesla.com/blog/all-our-patent-are-belong-you https://www.tesla.com/blog/all-our-patent-are-belong-you

vertexFarm 8y ago
Exactly. It's the "match that ignites an industry" and increases competition in order to create an economic imperative for the rest of the industry players to make electric products. Supposedly this has been goal number one the entire time, so Tesla ought to be very proud to have played a role in finally breaking the electric car into the mainstream--not as a single company which may persist or may fail, but as an enduring concept adopted across the industry. https://medium.com/@cormiston/the-elon-musk-business-model-canvas-b0964e8c880f https://medium.com/@cormiston/the-elon-musk-business-model-c... Musk has his flaws, but it's not a bad strategy.

newnewpdro 8y ago

After hearing Musk describe in more detail how the future Roadster has achieved its massive range and current capacity (two 100Kwh Model S batteries stacked), I've become a lot less confident in Tesla's technology advantage. If it were mostly due to battery tech breakthroughs, the situation would be much different. But no, it's just a heavier, bigger pile of existing batteries. The established manufacturers just need to decide to commit to competing with Tesla. They already have mass production solved, and there doesn't seem to be any major technological breakthrough Tesla owns preventing them from competing on performance.

cs702 8y ago

Tesla deserves kudos for getting companies like Mercedes, Audi, Porsche, and Jaguar to invest gobs of money to launch electric cars. Extrapolating from the size of Mercedes' investment ("over $12 billion," according to the article), I suspect the industry is spending north of $50 billion to launch a range of new electric vehicles over the coming years. For comparison, Tesla's annual capital spending is between $2 and $3 billion.

mmanfrin 8y ago

I wish car companies would stop trying to make EVs so goddamn garish looking. This car is so abysmally covered in blue LEDs that is just fucking SCREAMS "I'M AN EV" in the least subtle way possible.

King-Aaron 8y ago

I just want a company to release a two-mount/north-south or three-mount/east-west electric drivetrain kit, that I can adapt OE mounts to and fit to most consumer vehicles. If Chevrolet etc can sell crate engines, I want to see Tesla (etc) sell crate drivelines.

opsroller 8y ago

When your approach to marketing is “My product will kill this other product”, you most likely are approaching it wrong.

kerrybright3000 8y ago

Dang, this car looks really cool. Like TESLA cool https://www.wired.com/story/mercedes-benz-eqc-electric-suv/ https://www.wired.com/story/mercedes-benz-eqc-electric-suv/

jasonvorhe 8y ago

I'm always amused by the constant hating on Tesla while they at least manage to ship and have products that aren't just announcements and just have issues with scaling up and some parts of the hull not being perfectly aligned while everyone else is just showing off prototype after prototype, luxury cars or overpriced entry level cars that don't even come close to Tesla's mileage. Faraday Future and Lucid also don't seem to be able to get their act together. This leaves just Tesla, Chevy with Bolt and VW with the E Golf. I'd also be surprised if Tesla wasn't going to end up being the quasi monopoly battery manufacturer in the long run.

snarfybarfy 8y ago

We could have had nice electric cars like 10 or even 20 years earlier if legislation had limited normal cars to something reasonable like 40 horsepower / 30 kW. (yeah go on and tell me about your family of 9 that needs to go up a 20% incline in strong headwinds;-) But no, it ended up being an arms race to have the biggest vehicle on the road. And ironically most people in those huge contraptions cry about there not being enough parking spaces.

outericky 8y ago

Why do we need to target Tesla? Why not broaden the EV market and target ICE vehicles?