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Bitcoin exchange rate reached $100 USD per BTC

• spartango 14y ago
  I worry that as Bitcoin's value rises, people are buying in not to use it as payment for services or goods, but simply as an investment vehicle. In principle, there's nothing wrong with this; currency trading is common and well-explored. The problem is that the value of a currency is supposed to also be somehow related to its utility in acquiring goods and services. When it is rarely used to that effect, people may reconsider their investment in the currency. It'd also be interesting to look at the effects of deflation in the fledgling bitcoin economy, although the actual exchange of currency for goods and services is a bit small to judge this effectively.
  • oleganza 14y ago
    "The problem is that the value of a currency is supposed to also be somehow related to its utility in acquiring goods and services." Well, it is. As more people hold some BTC "for the future", they are more than willing to accept them as payment for their services. Imagine you are surrounded by people who have "hoarded" some BTC. Suddenly they can just trade in BTC without going to a bank (unless they have some spare cash which they haven't allocated to other purchases yet).
    • dragontamer 14y ago
      But that is only one side of the coin. If people are hoarding BTC, then they aren't spending them on goods / services. IE: Deflationary Spiral. It becomes hard to be a merchant who accepts bitcoins, because everyone expects BTC to keep rising in prices. People who bought a domain name for 1 BTC a few weeks ago from Namecheap lost a lot of money. They should have instead "saved" that BTC. Therefore, people are discouraged from using BTC as a transaction vehicle. Currently, hoarders are the ones benefiting from BTC, but no one else is. No merchant knows how to value their services in BTC, not when there is this much volatility around.
      • kiba 14y ago
        But that is only one side of the coin. If people are hoarding BTC, then they aren't spending them on goods / services. Sure they are. BitPay reports 2 million dollars in sale this month. The rate of transaction is accelerating too. What you meant is "they will horde more and spend less on goods / services", but sales and transactions are clearly accelerating. How do you account for this?
        • philwelch 14y ago
          The size of the Bitcoin economy in general is growing, so both hoarding and spending will increase. By the time spending actually starts going down it's too late.
        • deleted 14y ago
          [deleted]
        • dragontamer 14y ago
          https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5473508 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5473508 I don't have to. The fact is, no one prices their goods in BTC. Its absolutely ludicrous to price goods in BTC in the current market. I think BTC has utility as a currency for exchange however. But on that side, you don't want to be in the position of hoarding BTC. You hoard dollars, and then use BTC to transfer dollars between people. Services like Bitpay allow you to keep most of your money in hard cash.
        • saalweachter 14y ago
          Is $2 million really significant? BTC famously passed $1 billion in the money supply recently. That means that about 0.2% of the money supply is turning over each month, and 99.8% being hoarded from month to month. The US GDP is about $15 trillion, so about $1.25 trillion in transactions happen in a month. If you take M2 of about $10 trillion as the US money supply, about 12.5% of the US money supply turns over each month and 87.5% is being hoarded. If you take M1 of about $2 trillion as the money supply, about 62.5% of the US money supply is used in a transaction each month, with only 37.5% being hoarded. Compared to 62.5% or even 12.5%, 0.2% seems pretty unhealthy.
  • mef 14y ago
    I think part of the reason for the optimism of those speculating bullishly on BTC is that the inherent properties of a decentralized finite online currency will result in their utility will only increase with time.
  • knowaveragejoe 14y ago
    That is my sentiment exactly. There is much talk of growing bitcoin adoption, but I've yet to see anything beyond a few web-based services(which, beyond their time, are almost free for the operators to begin with).
    • virgil_disgr4ce 14y ago
      It's always been my suspicion/assumption that the majority of BTC usage is for black/gray-market drugs...?
      • niggler 14y ago
        The anonymity feature (and subsequent fees involved in the the transaction) is useful primarily for illicit activities. Maybe 1% of people are legitimately worried about privacy (the true libertarians). But most just want transactions that can't be traced back to them.
    • mrb 14y ago
      "A few web-based services" ?? Here is a list of more than a thousand merchants accepting Bitcoin: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Trade https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Trade And there are a lot more not on this list. Bitpay alone (a Bitcoin payment processor) claims to have multiple thousands of merchants.
      • knowaveragejoe 14y ago
        Yes, I've seen it. Have you given it a serious look? It looks great in quantity, but would you ever consider purchasing anything for a decent sum from any of them? The only remotely reputable merchant I'm aware of on there is BitcoinStore. Furthermore, there is noone offering general groceries, household supplies or clothing, just niche approximations of those categories. Also critically lacking are complex B2B services(their professional services section is...well, not much to look at - I certainly would not be investing my business's money in any of them at this time).
        • 14y ago
  • kiba 14y ago
    It'd also be interesting to look at the effects of deflation in the fledgling bitcoin economy, although the actual exchange of currency for goods and services is a bit small to judge this effectively. The GDP stats for bitcoin is not systematically collected. The blockchain data only gives us a approximate picture. So most people just rely on their guts and vague feeling about the size of the bitcoin economy. Bitcoin detractors tend to underestimate the size of bitcoin economy because they can't recall selling or buying goods or services. Bitcoin users tend to be more optimistic because they keep up with news of merchants opening up. I think it would be very useful if somebody built a stats site dedicated to systematically report on economic activities occuring in bitcoinland.
    • adrianwaj 14y ago
      Good idea. I find it interesting to track # followers of http://twitter.com/bitrific http://twitter.com/bitrific and http://twitter.com/btcprice http://twitter.com/btcprice. Probably lots of other accounts too worth following. But good correlation vehicles nevertheless.
  • grovulent 14y ago
    I'm not a bitcoin fanboy - but I see this sentiment around a lot and I'm not sure I agree with it. The claim is that the value of a currency is supposed to also be somehow related to its utility in acquiring goods and services. And if this isn't the case - then people will go off it. When was the last time someone acquired a good or service with an ounce of gold? Perhaps we shouldn't consider gold a currency? Well I'm fine with that. Bitcoin probably isn't a proper currency yet either (in the sense that people aren't exchanging much with it yet). But not being directly relatable to utility in exchange certainly hasn't hurt gold in recent history. So I don't see why necessarily it will be a problem for bitcoins.
    • kaonashi 14y ago
      Gold is a commodity; same with bitcoins. Not that there's anything wrong with that, but it isn't the same thing as a currency. Gold was only ever a currency when it was stamped by the issuing authority.
      • nawitus 14y ago
        I think it's better to think that bitcoin is a currency for some, and a commodity for others.
      • numbsafari 14y ago
        As a commodity, gold always had an intrinsic value separate from its value as a currency. So if the authority stamping the coin disappeared, I could always melt down the gold and sell it as a simple commodity. In the case of bitcoins, they do not have a utility outside of their use as a medium of value exchange. You can't really melt them down and use them to make jewelry, build cables or any of the myriad other uses that gold has.
        • tlrobinson 14y ago
          Is gold's intrinsic value anywhere near what it's currently trading at? edit: I think I mean it's "use value". The value of gold if it were not used a store of value.
  • phormula 14y ago
    $450k of electronics were purchased at bitcoinstore.com in march alone
    • knowaveragejoe 14y ago
      Got a source for that?
      • phormula 14y ago
        There was ticker on their site that must of reset this morning. They say need to get $850k per quarter in order to keep re-seller account and the low prices. They are selling 0% margin in order to promote bitcoin and get the competition, newegg and amazon to accept it as well. They didn't make the goal but were not open the whole quarter so they may still be able to continue. I'll see if they post news or press release about it
        • knowaveragejoe 14y ago
          There is a ticker to get 850k by June 30th, maybe that's what you're talking about?
      • BitcoinStore 14y ago
        I can confirm :)
  • bcoates 14y ago
    I can't help but think these prices represent people confusing a currency being useful with a unit of the currency being worth more. Obviously this is true at the extreme case that a useless currency is worthless in any quantity. But it doesn't really follow that more trading of goods and services in Bitcoin would cause the price to increase. This wouldn't need to happen until some substantial fraction of them are in the hands of people spending them instead of holding them speculatively. Currently the amount of Bitcoins that need to exist to satisfy all the commerce is tiny.
  • return0 14y ago
    I believe the biggest worry are security issues. It doesn't really matter if it can be used directly, as long as it can be traded back for other currencies. Same situation as gold, actually
  • incision 14y ago
    >I worry that as Bitcoin's value rises, people are buying in not to use it as payment for services or goods, but simply as an investment vehicle. I'd say it has been that way for a long time. When I dabbled in the community 2 years ago it was already brimming with speculators. Early adopting evangelists looking to legitimize their hoards and speculators who'd have been gambling on leveraged ETFs or FX if not BTC.
  • tibbon 14y ago
    Demurrage (cost to hold currency) could help hoarding. However, at some point, people will start spending them too. There's a fork of Bitcoin which actually has this built in. I imagine we could see an interesting future with cryptocurrencies, where people are essentially betting/investing on the stability of the framework/algorithm and demand on it. Multiple ones could exist, and you're hoping for the best return, or greatest stability. What would be REALLY interesting is if essentially one of these ends up seeming a better 'idea' than US currency (the de-facto currency now)
    • pi18n 14y ago
      Oh, I was going to write about Freicoin. It seems like an incredibly fascinating concept and I'd really like to see an online economy emerge around it. Do you use it?
      • tibbon 14y ago
        I don't, and I'm not sure of where I could generate/buy some. I'd definitely like to play with it a bit.
      • wmf 14y ago
        Why would anyone opt in to demurrage?
        • tibbon 14y ago
          I think that's a very good question. People would have to think that its a more stable currency with greater long term value to opt into it.
        • krichman 14y ago
          How is that demurrage any different from inflation, though? I have to invest my cash in things just to get it to maintain the value it has now.
      • gst 14y ago
        Freicoin is a scam. If you mine Freicoins 80% of the mined coins are automatically transferred to the "Freicoin Foundation" (see e.g. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=134629.0 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=134629.0). A real demurrage might be an interesting concept, but I wouldn't suggest to buy into Freicoin.
  • jwallaceparker 14y ago
    "The problem is that the value of a currency is supposed to also be somehow related to its utility in acquiring goods and services. When it is rarely used to that effect, people may reconsider their investment in the currency." Gold and silver stand in opposition to this statement. You can't buy groceries with gold or silver coins, but they're a fantastic store of value and time-tested investment. Furthermore, according to Gresham's Law, people keep "good money" (i.e. money that holds its value) out of the marketplace and spend their "bad money" (i.e. fiat) acquiring goods and services.
    • betterunix 14y ago
      Gold and silver are not currencies anymore, except in a few highly niche places.
      • morroccomole 14y ago
        Money != Currency. Gold and Silver are Money. Bitcoin and USD are currencies. Huge difference.
        • betterunix 14y ago
          Gold and silver are not money either, except in a tiny minority of countries. Wages are not being paid in gold or silver, debts cannot be settled with gold or silver, and neither gold nor silver is commonly traded for other goods. Nobody uses gold or silver as units of account. The only resemblance either metal has to money in this day and age is as a store of value, but if that is your only requirement to consider something to be money then you would need to include land, buildings, and various collectible items too. Gold and silver are commodities, traded like any other metal, and the historically-motivated obsession people have with using gold as a store of value makes it more difficult to acquire gold for industrial uses (which would be a real, productive use of the metal).
    • jvm 14y ago
      > You can't buy groceries with gold or silver coins, but they're a fantastic store of value and time-tested investment. Real value of gold: http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/2/18/1019887-136124096807602-Derek-Tomczyk.jpg http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/2/18/1019887... That is very much not my idea of a "fantastic store of value." Not unlike bitcoin, its value appears to vacillate wildly. The S&P 500 looks tame by comparison, and also has the added benefit of a much higher long-run rate of return.
  • GhotiFish 14y ago
    That may be true, but I'd wager most of the people who are buying into bitcoin for its property as a store of value will be shocked to find out bitcoins other very interesting property. The ease and low cost of transferring those bitcoins to anyone, anywhere in the world. "I can BUY things with these? Wait... I can sell things? I just need to paste a hash?!"
    • betterunix 14y ago
      Then one day, some highly motivated attacker will come along and discover the other very interesting property: that the work needed to attack Bitcoin scales linearly with the work needed to use Bitcoin. As soon as a successful attack is announced publicly, faith in Bitcoin will be shaken to badly that nobody will ever want to use anything called "digital cash" for a long time. So the real question you should be asking is, "Who would benefit from a Bitcoin failure, and could they amass that much computing power?"
      • dm2 14y ago
        Supposedly they can easily change algorithms if SHA-256 is broken in the future. Here is a list of client security issues: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Common_Vulnerabilities_and_Exposures https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Common_Vulnerabilities_and_Exposu... It seems like the biggest risk would be with the wallet websites, which is an issue that is present in other payment methods. The biggest problem IMO is that there is no way to refund or right the wrongs done by an attack. If someone in russia or china steals half of the bitcoins, there is nothing anyone can do to get them back. I suppose they would all be logged and everyone could band together to block those BitCoins as payments, but that's probably not going to happen. That would be interest to watch play out.
        • wmf 14y ago
          I think betterunix is not talking about a crypto flaw but a 51% attack; for ~$20M you can buy enough ASICs to basically take control of Bitcoin. (I'm not convinced that mathematical concepts like "polynomial time" should be applied without consideration for economics, but that's a whole different topic.)
  • jacoblyles 14y ago
    The deflation is healthy at first. It encourages adoption. But in the long run, I would rather BTC be less deflationary.
  • mrb 14y ago
    I have said this multiple times in previous discussion threads, but everywhere you look, all indicators show that Bitcoin spending is increasing: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5296889 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5296889
  • rayiner 14y ago
    Something about Dutch tulips.
  • mtgx 14y ago
    I worry about that, too, but I think it's unlikely to happen, because Bitcoin will stabilize eventually. But it first needs to become so big (think $100 billion - $1 trillion here) that every single transaction affects the value in a very small way, and any top HN or Reddit article about it has an almost insignificant effect on its value. I do believe that will happen eventually, but it's too early right now. Bitcoin works by the law of numbers - after all it's all numbers and math. When its tiny in value, its growth can be very high. When it's already huge, the growth will slow down a lot.
    • oscilloscope 14y ago
      I would expect steady growth of Bitcoin's price to look like the logistic function. Exponential at first, then flattening out. At some point, it would just grow opposite the inflation of other currencies once it's stable. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function Of course growth will probably come in fits and starts, not so smoothly.
  • sturmeh 14y ago
    Why not both? I invested in a payment system of the future. If it ends up being used, I'll have (however many I invested in) BTC to spend, which could be worth significantly more or less than I paid for them. If it ends up being useless, I'll lose my principal.
  • Nursie 14y ago
    "I worry that as Bitcoin's value rises, people are buying in not to use it as payment for services or goods, but simply as an investment vehicle." LOL. In the two years I've been watching it I've seen no evidence that it's anything but an investment (and speculation) vehicle.
    • DanBC 14y ago
      There's a few people using it for illegal purchases on things like Silk Road.
• Hermel 14y ago
  I.e. the USD has fallen below 10 mBTC.
  • oleganza 14y ago
    I guess, after $1000/BTC we'll need an inverse chart showing a collapsing dollar. I guess prices in USD will be visibly growing since then.
    • krallja 14y ago
      https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5473387 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5473387
  • james4k 14y ago
    That's like saying the USD has fallen 80% in the last 30 days.
    • mtgx 14y ago
      Which it did. Well maybe more like last 60 years.
    • tlrobinson 14y ago
      Max Keiser likes to say the Dow is at an all time low against Bitcoin, haha.
    • jwallaceparker 14y ago
      Currencies rise or fall relative to other currencies or commodities or goods. So when you say "USD has fallen 80%" it always has to be qualified with something like "against BTC." But yeah, it sounds ridiculous.
  • jvm 14y ago
    Indeed goods and services have gotten extremely cheap in the past few months!
• niggler 14y ago
  I hope that people who got in last year or earlier this year are starting to sell some of their bitcoins, at least enough to cover the cost basis. I wouldn't be surprised to see a very sharp fall soon.
  • oleganza 14y ago
    Unless these people have invested extra money they can afford to lose for the reasons to save them from inflation and confiscation. Then they still have enough cash to pay the bills, so why should they get back to fiat? E.g. I myself and many of people I know are not going to sell a single Bitcoin unless any sort of personal or global disaster. And many of them are going to spend their BTC over time to avoid interaction with banking system as much as possible.
    • niggler 14y ago
      You could end in gold or silver or some other precious metal as well. The ultimate endpoint need not be USD.
      • oleganza 14y ago
        Precious metals are not easy: either you store it somewhere where people ask questions and can block your access to it, or you store it in your pocket and cannot easily spend portion of it when you need.
        • tatsuke95 14y ago
          And the spread between bid/ask in the real world is large. Unless you own "paper" metals, you aren't exchanging them for the rates you see on the ticker.
    • bonzoesc 14y ago
      Fiat you can spend is more useful than fiat you can't. > I myself and many of people I know are not going to sell a single Bitcoin unless any sort of personal or global disaster. In the case of global disaster, who's going to be buying a fringe currency?
• faet 14y ago
  This feels kinda like a pump and dump to me. I don't mind articles/projects/sites that make use of bitcoins. But the frequency of posts on how much each bitcoin is worth feels like pennystocks/etc on an investing forum. People trying to get more people to buy in. To drive it up. So they can get out while it's high.
  • mikemoka 14y ago
    I agree, even though the amount of bitcoins in circulation will be limited this looks too strange to be a regular trend.
  • oleganza 14y ago
    So who and when is going to get out? And out where? To fiat currency that is controlled, inspected, can be frozen, taxed and stolen? Bitcoin grows like crazy because it is a money proved to work. It survived exchange hacks, stolen wallets, viruses, user mistakes, network-affecting software bugs and government seizures of bank deposits. It allows you to hold something in your pocket that nobody knows about and you can split it in 100 pieces and send to 100 people in different countries in a matter of seconds. Bitcoin is not a promise of future delivery. Like William Gibson said, "The future is already here — it's just not very evenly distributed."
    • TylerE 14y ago
      It'll be proven to work when you can pay taxes and buy groceries with it.
      • joonix 14y ago
        Kind of a ridiculous comment. I would buy groceries for someone and deliver them if they gave me 1 Bitcoin. I would also hand them my homegrown vegetables for a Bitcoin.
        • chii 14y ago
          sure, you (and comparatively a minor number of others) would. But as a society, bitcoins is still not an accepted form of exchange in general.
• cheeze 14y ago
  That's insane. Only a few months ago 1BTC was going for about $30 USD. There were threads discussing $30/BTC where people were saying that it was too late to get on the wagon...
  • M4v3R 14y ago
    3 months ago (january) 1 BTC was worth 14 USD.
  • Permit 14y ago
    What's insane is that people here were trying to find out ways to short Bitcoin when it was at here at price.
    • drivebyacct2 14y ago
      Oh, there are a number of users that have been nay-saying for months, or longer. I hope they did manage to get a short in. That sounds vindictive, but even in this thread are people that clearly don't understand BTC firing off calling it a "scam". Poor people, should've bought two weeks ago.
  • lambda 14y ago
    When I mined my first block of bitcoins a couple years ago (back when I could use the GPU on my aging laptop and still have a chance to mine a block) they were worth about 5¢; I sold a bunch when they were around $5 because I thought that was ridiculously high, and the price was sure to collapse. Silly me; had I not sold them, I could have a few thousand dollars from a couple of days worth of GPU time.
  • nawitus 14y ago
    If bitcoin ever gets widely adopted, one bitcoin will be worth atleast thousands of dollars.
    • iso-8859-1 14y ago
      did you do the math or are you just pulling numbers out of your hat?
• grovulent 14y ago
  People like Max Keiser are calling 100k to 1mill per bitcoin. Hard to imagine. I left my gpu running for a few weeks a year or so ago and mined myself 1 bitcoin. I figure that should Keiser's prediction comes true - it will be a nice easy pay day - if not, I didn't waste much time, energy on it. I've been looking at it lately though and thinking that it surely must drop back soon. I'm thinking a drop back down to 15 us is reasonable.
  • rmc 14y ago
    People like Max Keiser are calling 100k to 1mill per bitcoin. Hard to imagine. It's the hope of some in the bitcoin community/industry that bitcoin becomes one of the top 3 currencies in the world. Given that there is a hard limit of ~ 21 million bitcoins (half of which have already been given out), the only way to get in the top 3, is for each bitcoin to be massively valued.
  • aneth4 14y ago
    $1M per bitcoin is $10T in money supply with 10M bitcoins. The current USD money supply is $2.7T. I suspect $10T is around the entire world money supply.
  • waterlesscloud 14y ago
    Bitcoin is like a startup. If it works, it's worth a tremendous amount. If it doesn't, it's worth nearly nothing. Right now its proponents are valuing it like a tech startup stock- what's its potential future value? Its opponents have already decided it will fail. Either side may be right at this point, though bitcoin has more going for it than it did six months ago. To me, the trend is currently towards "it's going to work", so I think it's worth a gamble. But it's definitely a gamble. I think cryptocurrency is without question a force for the future. It makes exchanging money too easy and too fast for it not to eventually dominate economic systems. Economies/companies that don't use it will be at a disadvantage. What's in doubt for me is whether bitcoin will be the winner of the cryptocurrency market.
    • kjackson2012 14y ago
      The only way it "works" is if people start using it to pay for goods and services. Right now it is an investment vehicle for speculation. And the crazy volatility suggests to me that most people won't feel comfortable using this as a currency for transactions, until the volatility decreases immensely.
• deleted 14y ago
  [deleted]
• nkohari 14y ago
  Is it possible to sell short, or buy put options? I think bitcoin has potential long-term but this seems like a ridiculous speculation-fueled bubble.
  • lordgilman 14y ago
    http://icbit.se/ http://icbit.se/
  • nawitus 14y ago
    Yeah, it's apparently possible to short bitcoins. If the recent rise in price is a bubble, and it crashes back to about $30, it will still come back to about $100 in a year, if bitcoin adoption continues.
    • knowaveragejoe 14y ago
      Has there been adoption for essential goods & services? All I've seen so far are Internet services.
      • raamdev 14y ago
        https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Trade#Material_.2F_Physical_Products https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Trade#Material_.2F_Physical_Produ...
        • knowaveragejoe 14y ago
          An impressive list in quantity, but upon closer inspection I don't see any essential goods & services. Under "consumables" there are literally no general groceries, just specialty foods. Under clothing, a bunch of niche items. It's also worth noting that nearly all of these look like to be pretty low-quality vendors.
          • nawitus 14y ago
            There's lack of payment options with "essential goods & services", like groceries, but what's your point? Any new currency, especially digital, doesn't start with supermarkets, because supermarkets tend to be owned by large corporations that are not first adopters. If bitcoin will become a major currency, it will have to have a phase where it cannot be used in general and only with a small number of companies. That's not evidence that bitcoin will not become a major currency, it's evidence that it hasn't yet, and nobody claims it has.
• rommelvr 14y ago
  This crash is becoming really worrisome. Will it ever stop? http://i.imgur.com/c2ZpwrS.png http://i.imgur.com/c2ZpwrS.png.
  • oleganza 14y ago
    No.
• onlyup 14y ago
  So.. how do I mine bitcoins again?
  • VMG 14y ago
    ASICs
    • sliverstorm 14y ago
      At $100/BTC, GPU mining might be profitable again. Slow, but profitable.
      • josephagoss 14y ago
        Unfortunately not, I have been watching GPU mining returns vs the BTC price for a while, all the time the hash rate of the network is always increasing a little quicker than the income from mining. The ASIC's will continue to dominate. Per watt of electricity they are far more efficient and we will see thousands of ASIC coming into existence this year. GPU mining Litecoin and converting over the USD or Bitcoin is actually more profitable.
        • corysama 14y ago
          I fired up a miner again recently just for fun. Took 5 days to dig out $15. That's comparable to the $3/day the same GPU could mine back when the exchange rate was $5/coin. But yes, the ASICs are coming. There are only a few in the wild right now. Pretty soon there won't be much point to GPU mining.
          • josephagoss 14y ago
            Nice, that's not a bad return! I can't even get $2 a day out of mine. I wonder how difficult it would be to build a ASIC yourself?
            • sliverstorm 14y ago
• mikemoka 14y ago
  How could the bitcoin exchange rate reverse its trend and start falling? Do you have any scenarios in mind?
  • cadetzero 14y ago
    US government declares it an illegal currency, and if you accept bitcoins at your business you will be investigated. Game over.
    • tomsthumb 14y ago
      Some numbers are illegal, but that's because they have particular uses (Crypto etc). How in the world would the US be able to declare possession and exchange of data illegal?
      • omni 14y ago
        Child pornography stored on a computer is data. The possession and exchange of child pornography is illegal.
    • MacsHeadroom 14y ago
      They would have to define it to ban it. Bitcoin would just evolve to no longer fit the ban. There are already dozens of other cryptocurrencies brooding- just waiting for a scenario where Bitcoin is pushed out to make more room for them. A ban on bitcoin will work about as well as a ban on piracy.
      • specto 14y ago
        Not really, since the success of bitcoin still relies on conversion to another currency.
        • knowaveragejoe 14y ago
          Additionally, the same applies to those other digital currencies as well.
• acabal 14y ago
  I added a Bitcoin purchase option to Scribophile to test the waters. But I'm interested in a Bitcoin economy, not a USD cash alternative--the situation where a Bitcoin has its own value, not a value dependent on a different currency. For that reason, I decided to fix the price of an upgrade to 2 BTC, not peg it to the dollar like most other sites do. Unfortunately it seems like that's just not going to work at this point. I set the price at 2 BTC when the exchange rate was $35--like two weeks ago or so. That meant the BTC membership price was about in line with the USD price. But in a few weeks, the value of a Bitcoin has tripled. Since most people using BTC ultimately want to convert it to dollars, this insane instability makes BTC impossible to use for anyone interested in a pure BTC economy. Too bad.
  • hilko 14y ago
    wouldn't it be possible to link the BTC price to the going rate at MtGox, so that it always translates to around $35?
    • cadetzero 14y ago
      Correct, and there are merchant services set up to do exactly this.
      • e1ven 14y ago
        I'm curious if you have any experience working with them, and which you'd recommend?
    • acabal 14y ago
      Yeah but that's what I don't want to do--because that makes Bitcoin just a USD proxy, not a currency and economy of its own. I'm interested in BTC as its own economy, but unfortunately the price instability and tendency of most users to exchange for USD in the end makes it impossible to explore that.
      • nawitus 14y ago
        Logically speaking it doesn't make bitcoin a USD proxy, a non-currency or "not-a-economy" as you claimed. Fixing the bitcoin price to another currency is a good solution when the value of 1 bitcoin is changing rapidly, as it would take a lot of work to adjust it daily. Besides, you can fix the price to the average of multiple major currencies (like average of euro, American dollar and the British pound).
• adrianwaj 14y ago
  Gold and silver for day-to-day local transactions. Bitcoin for larger sums, international or less timely.
• btbuildem 14y ago
  It gapped up on no volume whatsoever.. April Fools prank?
  • polarix 14y ago
    I believe there was some illiquidity early this morning, but I might be hallucinating.
• deleted 14y ago
  [deleted]
• xhrpost 14y ago
  Everyone keeps saying that a crash is around the corner and the current price is unsustainable, been hearing it since $40/BTC, maybe earlier. I don't completely disagree, the question I keep pondering though is, if there is a big sustained crash coming, is it from $100 to $30, or $900 to $300?
  • _k 14y ago
    Been hearing it when it was trading at prices less than $ 1. Not sure what to think. What if it gets hacked ? What if the creator has a backdoor ?
    • josephagoss 14y ago
      The exchange or Bitcoin itself? The code is open source and actively developed. Many people come over to bitcointalk asking about certain sections of the code. Many many eyes are looking at the main client source. Its highly unlikely there is a backdoor that has been missed.
    • irishcoffee 14y ago
      I almost bought $500 worth of BTC back when they were trading for pennies. Now, who knows if they would have survived two hacks, or if I would have had the patience to hold on to them, but I sometimes wish I'd pulled the trigger.
    • pi18n 14y ago
      The creator doesn't need a backdoor; the early adopters have gigantic stacks of BTC that has never been used. The appropriate concern is not that they have a backdoor but that they flood the market and make it crash.
      • paulgb 14y ago
        What fraction of the currently mined coins is in these stacks?
        • 14y ago
• balakk 14y ago
  What would it take for somebody like Amazon or eBay to (even partially) support bitcoins? How much of a risk could it be?
  • dan1234 14y ago
    Considering eBay owns PayPal[1], it's unlikely they'd want to promote any competing currency. [1]http://news.cnet.com/2100-1017-941964.html http://news.cnet.com/2100-1017-941964.html
  • ynniv 14y ago
    If you hold the bitcoin for a very short amount of time, it's not especially risky. There's a company that facilitates payments in bitcoin: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bitpay-integrates-bitcoin-with-fulfillment-by-amazoncom-2013-03-06 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bitpay-integrates-bitcoin-w...
  • MacsHeadroom 14y ago
    Lots of online retailers have implemented accepting Bitcoin. For everywhere else, Amazon and eBay included, there's BitSpend- which allows anyone to buy anything with Bitcoin from anywhere for as little as 0.5%
  • yxhuvud 14y ago
    For starters, there will need to be a lot of court cases that will decide how the legal repercussions will look like before any major players will take the risk it involves.
  • smackfu 14y ago
    I see no real incentive for a retailer to trade in a currency that is fluctuating wildly. If they wanted to be currency traders, they would be currency traders.
  • cjg 14y ago
    I imagine this will happen via Payment Service Providers first. Merchants that don't want to manage their own payment code outsource it to some third party company. Those PSPs compete and one dimension they compete on is breadth of payment methods. Who wants to be the only one who doesn't offer BTC? Once PSPs have integrated bitcoins, many merchants will accept them.
• DanBC 14y ago
  Some people lack the knowledge and skills needed to be able to buy something from Amazon. Compare buying something from Amazon with buying anything using Bitcoins - Amazon is ridiculously easy. Bitcoin will never reach that level of ease of use. But when it has something like a 5 step LiveCD[1] it might start to get wider use. [1] Something like insert CD, prepare anonymising stuff; load encrypted file from USB stick; load key from hardware token and enter short password; and have the distro wallpaper give idiot proof flowchart diagram instructions.
  • cadetzero 14y ago
    I'm not really sure why you say it's so hard. You install the bitcoin wallet. You sell something for bitcoins, and you give them your private key address in your wallet. You receive bitcoins. You buy something with bitcoins else where, and you just hit send and specify an address. Simple as an account # + routing number. Now funding your wallet with fiat currency is a little harder, but Coinbase has mostly taken care of that. It's as hard as paying a credit card off - link your current bank account, press buy or sell.
    • knowaveragejoe 14y ago
      Er, wouldn't you give out your public key to receive bitcoins?
      • cadetzero 14y ago
        Yes, correct. Typo.
    • DanBC 14y ago
      That's not anonymous. Anonymity is one of the benefits of bitcoin, but it's tricky to do.
      • cadetzero 14y ago
        Your current banking transactions aren't anonymous either. It's a nice additional security layer for people that want it, but by no means is it required.
• lolcraft 14y ago
  Some people here seem to think that this is temporary, that sometime in the future Bitcoin will stabilize into a glorious future global currency -- never mind the new class of cryptobarons it will have created from its inner circle, through shameless hoarding. My question is, what then will happen when Bitcoin stabilizes, that is, when the time to new coin mined approaches practically infinity? Let's assume the global economy grows at 4% per year. Do Bitcoin's proponents believe a constant 4% deflation rate will be somehow compatible with capitalism? Why lend, why build new companies, when simply storing it is more than enough? Take shocks such as bubbles and demand-side crises. Could a economy based on Bitcoin survive them, and not crash inevitably into a deflationary spiral? I claim it won't. The party line usually argues for the evils of inflation. What they don't understand, I think, is that capitalism, in its revolutionary (in the sense of production) facet, needs inflation, feeds from it. Inflation might screw lenders, and favor debtors, sure. But deflation is just the inverse: a gift for the leecherous rentier class, and a massive "fuck you" to entrepreneurs.
  • disintermediate 14y ago
    The price of Bitcoin won't stabilise. The best you could hope for would be a similar volatility to a commodity like gold or silver. So products and services will never be priced in Bitcoin while there is a better alternative like the dollar which is relatively stable. A mistake 'economists' make with bitcoin is to draw macroecomic conclusions based on theories suited to single currency economies. Actually we need theories that allow for multiple currencies circulating that have different strengths to understand the effects. Tl;dr Bitcoin won't change the way we price things, it just provides another option to transfer wealth.
    • jpadkins 14y ago
      Agreed, but isn't international trade economics the study of economics over multiple currencies?
      • disintermediate 14y ago
        What we're seeing there is competitive devaluations through printing and recently confiscations. Fixed supply commodities like gold fare well, but their existence doesn't drag the world into a deflationary spiral. Bitcoin's existence won't have macroeconomic implications either.
• drivingsouth 14y ago
  reminds me of the icelandic krona
  • drcode 14y ago
    A currency rapidly increasing in value reminds you of one that was rapidly decreasing in value?
• al1x 14y ago
  ...and what happens when a competing cryptocurrency is released?
  • wmf 14y ago
    There are a bunch of forks of Bitcoin that have received approximately zero attention (relatively speaking). Standards tend to be natural monopolies.
    • sturmeh 14y ago
      LTC has seen 200% growth over the last week, people are adopting it hoping it will be an equal competitor. Other people are adopting it just in-case they're right.
      • al1x 14y ago
        This seems a natural consequence of bitcoin's adoption and growth. I see virtually no barriers to entry here, no limit to the number of competing currencies that could be introduced, and as a result no real value to bitcoins. How long can one cryptocurrency expect to be allowed to grow before another comes along and dilutes the market? What factors prevent the average consumer from considering them substitutes? Bitcoins and competing currency are fundamentally similar. They vary only in retail and consumer adoption. I can't make sense of this bitcoin hype.
        • cjg 14y ago
          The barrier to entry is in gaining the adoption.
          • al1x 14y ago
            then spread awareness -- https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=134179.0 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=134179.0
            • 14y ago
• tvladeck 14y ago
  Currencies have existed in a huge variety of forms over time. Basically anything can work as a medium of exchange as long as everyone has a high degree of confidence that if they are paid in the currency, that they too can pay someone else in that currency. But that's not to say all currency regimes are created equally -- we've learned a number of lessons, painfully, about how to manage currencies. For a small-scale, but very instructive example that shows there are cases where simply increasing the money supply can sometimes create more value in the economy (or how deflation can destroy value), see the story of the Capitol Hill Babysitter Co-Op [0]. At a more serious scale, many prominent economists believe that an artificial restriction of the monetary supply led to, or exacerbated the Great Depression [1]. So, like Krugman [2], I think that BTC proponents really have to explain how the artificial restriction of the size of the BTC money supply is not a serious design flaw in the currency. Are BTC just crypotographic gold? If so, then is a successful BTC economy just a different gold standard (and all its associated problems)? [0] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capitol_Hill_Babysitting_Co-op http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capitol_Hill_Babysitting_Co-op [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_standard#Prolongation_of_the_Great_Depression http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_standard#Prolongation_of_t... [2] http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/07/golden-cyberfetters/ http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/07/golden-cyberfett...
  • polarix 14y ago
    It's close to a new gold standard. The one problem associated with gold that it does solve is being as good a medium of exchange as visa/paypal (or better).
    • chii 14y ago
      The one thing BTC cannot yet replicate is the trust that gold standard has. Anyone in the world would immediately accept gold standard, but this BTC, despite being a digital gold, will be difficult to overcome the initial fear/mist-trust. It doesn't matter what mathematical proof you provide - the laymen doesn't really understand it. May be one day, it becomes accepted, and BTC will then really be a new gold standard. But i don't see that day coming, because there are people who don't like the gold standard (as it prevents them from leeching money from society - i.e., various parties/entities who hold controlling interests in major central banks etc).
• smsm42 14y ago
  It looks like a classic bubble now - while slow gains programmed in could be justifiable, this seems to be driven purely by expectations of future price rises - which is a classic bubble sign. So far, all bubbles popped sooner or later. Maybe this would be the only one in history that doesn't - I wouldn't bet on that, but maybe someone would and become a millionaire. Or lose all his money.
  • jamoes 14y ago
    From 2003 to 2013, the price of AAPL rose from $11/share to over $400/share. Rapid price increase doesn't always mean "bubble". Sometimes innovative things are created.
    • smsm42 14y ago
      There's nothing that happened with BTC between when it cost $14 and now. Comparing it to the shares of Apple that created a whole new consumer industry and substantially changed the information interactions of the whole humankind betrays deep misunderstanding of the question at hand. Bitcoins did not suddenly turned into new way of living, did not produce hundreds of amazingly useful things and did not change how many people do things. They just cost more, because people expect them to cost even more in the future.
      • jamoes 14y ago
        Bitcoin technology allows something that has never before been possible in human history: Two individuals, that never meet in person, can trade with each other without placing any trust in a third party. The implications of this are far-reaching, and will fundamentally shape how governments and businesses operate.
        • khuey 14y ago
          That's a fascinating point. It has me wondering if this is a solution in search of a problem though. When I do business with someone online, typically I trust the third party more than I trust the counterparty. That's definitely the case when I use my American Express card to buy something from a merchant I've never used before. It's why Ebay and Amazon Marketplace succeeded. They broker the transactions and ensure you don't get screwed in exchange for a cut of the value.
• tquai 14y ago
  Earlier today this had 135 comments. Checked later, 200. Now 350! OMG BUY! BUY! BUY!
• jneal 14y ago
  That pizza laszlo bought [1] nearly 3 years ago would now be worth over a million dollars. [1] https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/History https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/History
• dubcanada 14y ago
  Excuse my lack of knowledge, but seeing as how one BTC is now worth $100. Is it possible to send someone half a bitcoin or 1/10th? Or is it a single unit or nothing?
  • fsckin 14y ago
    https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Units https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Units BTC can be sent in any amount, all the way down to Satoshis at 0.00000001 BTC.
  • Devilboy 14y ago
    Currently bitcoin can be divided down to eight decimal places.
  • josephagoss 14y ago
    Each Bitcoin can be split into 100 million parts, in addition there is a possibility of the division being pushed further if ever needed (the smallest unit could be split down more if the people accepted this change) Also there is talk of making the default traded unit a mBTC, (I think) Its a unit that represents a thousandth of a unit. once this becomes the standard unit the psychology is there to allow BTC to rise even further.
• adrianwaj 14y ago
  I am going out on a limb and calling this price peanuts. The rise is due to Cyprus, and if bankers keep stealing people's money (and printing it) ... which they sure will because they compete amongst themselves about who has the most multi-millions (regardless of how they got it)... a portion will move their wealth into bitcoin. Also, as fiat currencies lose value, bitcoin will rise. Bitcoin is a hedge against fiat. add: in fact the ideology of bitcoin is steeped in disempowering central banks. So you are buying into an ideology, and so long as the tech can keep up with the ideology, and there's nothing with better tech, and central banks keep ripping people off, then bitcoin will rise. It's far from perfect, but I think the web itself was about unlocking information to empower people (as created by hippies), something like the advent of literacy to empower people to read the bible when it was limited to priestly classes. Bitcoin is like grade 1 spelling and grammar, or the first web browsers: sure is better than not having either.
  • mactitan 14y ago
    Yes, I would think the CB's to be obtuse not to be wary of digital currencies. You can be sure the CB's are watching bitcoin and could easily manipulate it's price. I.e. create a bubble and burst it.
• SODaniel 14y ago
  I think a lot of people here would benefit from reading some William Gibson novels. I don't think the BTC will ever be a 'currency' as the USD or the GBP. It is also not necessary for the BTC to be at a 'fixed value' at any time. As a virtual currency it's ok for the BTC to fluctuate heavily as the only thing needed for it to still succeed is that payment systems are 'always on' and can determine a spot price for goods and services. I would rather see the BTC tied to 'Pizza index' than USD. This would make it easy for people to use an in-app value determinator when making purchases. Say you just tap your phone with a BTC wallet against a cash register. The register answers, well your burger will be 0.00065 BTC at spot price as of 12.24.44.32 PM. Accept/decline. That's it. I see the BTC/LTC (Litecoin) as alternative currencies but still worthy of a HUGE market share for micro/everyday transactions.
  • millstone 14y ago
    Why would I want to maintain a bitcoin wallet if its value fluctuates heavily every day? Would you want your checking account to do the same?
    • sliverstorm 14y ago
      This is why I wonder whether a company will come along and offer point-of-sale BTC to USD (or other). They could perhaps issue plastic cards to their users for making payments, and charge businesses 2.5% of the transaction for their services.
• JumpCrisscross 14y ago
  Monetary economists have a measure called velocity, which is "the average frequency with which a unit of money is spent on new goods and services produced domestically in a specific period of time. Velocity has to do with the amount of economic activity associated with a given money supply." [1] It can be thought of as the "rate of turnover in the money supply" [2]. It is a good indicator of the "health" of a currency. The annualised velocity of the M2 Money Stock for Q4 2012 2 was 6.152 [2]. That is, the average dollar in the form of notes and coins in circulation (M0), traveller's cheques, checking account/demand deposits, savings deposits, time deposits/CDs under $100 000, and individuals' money market deposits was spent 1.538 times on economically useful activities in the fourth quarter of last year. The annualised velocity of the Bitcoin Money Stock for Q4 2012 was 1.27. That is, the average Bitcoin in existence was transacted 0.32 times in the last 90 days of 2012. This includes economically useless transfer payments, i.e. transactions not involving the exchange of real goods or services, as well as economically useless hoarded or lost coins, i.e. Bitcoins not in circulation and so less a unit of "money" than a speculative asset (in the case of hoarding). Since this is a ratio, the two balance out, though it is still biased to the downside. For the 30 days ending on 29 March 2013, it was 1.86. Here is what it has been doing since February 2009 [3]. More encouragingly, Bitcoin Velocity has quadrupled YoY. M2 Velocity declined 4% over the same time. I would thus offer, very tentatively, that there is a substantial portion of the Bitcoin economy involved in real transactions (versus financial ones, e.g. trading on an exchange). Curiously, yet to emerge (to my knowledge [EDIT: which was wrong]) is a majour vendor of Bitcoin mining equipment that accepts Bitcoin as a mode of payment. If that were to happen, the Bitcoin economy would have an endogenous "risk-free rate" in the form of mining yields, with power companies serving as the most salient factor. If it were not for the ceiling on the number of Bitcoins which can come into existence, it could very well have been the first currency pseudo-denominated in energy. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Velocity_of_money https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Velocity_of_money [2] http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M2V?cid=32242 http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M2V?cid=32242 [3] http://imgur.com/f7oFZKb http://imgur.com/f7oFZKb Annualised Bitcoin Velocity, Feb 2009 - March 2013
  • eric_bullington 14y ago
    Actually, all of the vendors of the state-of-the-art ASIC mining equipment are accepting Bitcoins as payment. But interesting analysis. What do you think about the Bitcoin Days Destroyed metric [0] as a way to measure the health of the Bitcoin economy? [0] https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Bitcoin_Days_Destroyed https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Bitcoin_Days_Destroyed
• deleted 14y ago
  [deleted]
• vannevar 14y ago
  Bitcoins are in a speculative bubble. This bubble is attracting fringe merchants, which provides a veneer of legitimacy to the dramatic speculative rise. Note that there is no way to effectively short bitcoins at this point, so there's no counterbalance to the speculation. When the bitcoin market turns south, it will fall hard as the shallow liquidity evaporates quickly.
• thetwiceler 14y ago
  Proof that Bitcoin is worthless: I set up camp over the Golden Gate Bridge. I ask people if they'd be willing to throw their lunch into the water (use their computer's time/energy/money to mine Bitcoin), with no possibility of retrieving it, and in return I offer to give them a certificate stating that they've thrown their lunch away (a Bitcoin). Now, I see no reason why anyone would expect why these certificates would have any value. But let's suppose they do have value, and people can trade their certificates, say, for a lunch (or perhaps half a lunch). NOW, suppose I have been secretly stashing away those lunches (really it doesn't need to be in secret - you don't care what happens to your lunch after you throw it away). Then there is now objectively more value in the world than there was before I set up shop - there are the same amount of lunches in the world, but there are also now certificates that have some positive value. We've made a free lunch! This is a contradiction. If we could create value by this silly game, we could easily make as much value as we want, and we would have solved all the world's problem. But this should be obvious in the first place! Why on earth would you expect to be rewarded with something of value (a Bitcoin) for doing something fundamentally useless to society (mining Bitcoin). Even though mining Bitcoin comes at a cost to you, this doesn't matter - it just means you're throwing your lunch away. Now why does the US Dollar have value? Instead of throwing away our lunches for a certificate, we basically asked the government to store our lunches in Fort Knox. Today, lots of gold and other items of value are held there. Why are they held there? There is an implicit assumption that these items of value support the US Dollar. The government knows it could not start "eating those lunches" that it's got in its reserve! It would not yield society a free lunch - it would crash the US Dollar.
  • polarix 14y ago
    "doing something fundamentally useless to society (mining Bitcoin)" Does Visa provide value to society? "mining bitcoin" translates to "certifying the current outstanding global transaction registry". FYI.
• supervillain 14y ago
  Imagine, if banks are using a bitcoin wallet, issues a bitcoin card (in a form of debit, savings card or credit card) with private keys on back and public keys on front, the bank then deposits money into the wallet then the end user withdraw money with the same bank or supporting banks. This is one of the scenarios I think that would incorporate bitoin into the current financial system.
• supervillain 14y ago
  Banks is still necessary to migrate analog currencies to digital currencies in todays financial economy. People trust banks and they would also be offering support on how to use the new currency, and with their investments on the highest security to guard their assets, it's much secure for them to generate the wallets and safeguard the information and incorporate them into the main currency. Banks are absolute necessity for propagating the new system, and merging the old currencies into bitcoin.
• supervillain 14y ago
  If any big companies today would be the first to utilize Bitcoin and use them, they would really glad that they did, with the prices of bitcoin soaring, the more people invest in it the more the price gets higher and people trusts the currency, it would be really wise to invest in them. Imagine if any of Facebook, Google, Amazon, Paypal would use them first, it would be faster to propagate bitcoins into the main financial system, and I think they will make a really good and wise decision.
• vijayboyapati 14y ago
  As Moldbug wrote: "In any economy, there exists no less than one commodity or security of inelastic volume which is overvalued due to reservation demand. Ie: one scarce good which is money." Bitcoin's increasing price is a sign that it's further along in its passage to monetization. Gold, too, experiences the same phenomena of being "overvalued". I.e., being far above the price warranted by its use value. In the same way gold is also partially monetized (in particular it has large reservation demand from central banks) Buying bitcoin is essentially a bet on the probability it will be monetized. This probability will wax and wane in the minds of the population participating in the bitcoin market, who in turn will be influenced by media perceptions, the actions of the state etc. So the price will no doubt be quite volatile. But the increase in price, based on an increase in reservation demand, is self-reinforcing. It increases the desire of merchants to accept bitcoin in payment (since there are now a greater pool of holders who have greater savings looking for an outlet to spend those savings). And as new merchants begin accepting bitcoin in payment, the reservation demand increases. These two causalities are linked together and reinforce each other. At some point they become entrenched enough that the whole thing "lifts off", so to speak, and the commodity becomes money. Interestingly, the same thing happens with gold, except that one of the two causalities is short-circuited by the state: the reservation demand for gold does not spur merchants to accept gold in payment, because that is made illegal by the state. Thankfully bitcoin is so well engineered that the problem of the state banning use in transactions is essentially moot (no offense "Chuck" Schumer).
• machilin 14y ago
  It's difficult to say how much can this rise indefinitely. The higher the rise, if the bitcoin bubble does collapse, expect a even bigger fall when speculators start dumping their bitcoins on the market.
• deleted 14y ago
  [deleted]
• roguas 14y ago
  Bitcoins were designed to do that. If the price for 1 BTC rises to the level it becomes profitable to offer them computing power for the network people will generate new money. Until then its value gonna rise. This will loop until infinity. Its hard to compare against dollar. As bitcoin is newborn with freedom written all over it. If it gets adapted more chances are its gonna be rising in value and will become first a currency for savings later on a day to day activity currency.
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