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Nvidia projects $673B in sales as AI demand widens
- dan_gggggg 1mo ago[dead]
- 12948276 1mo ago[flagged]
- simianwords 1mo agoIts possible that the bubble hyperstitions itself through nonsense takes like this
- DarmokTanagra 1mo agoLife becomes a lot simpler when you just stop giving a fuck.
- hkt 1mo agoDarmok, and NVIDIA, at, Tanagra
- lostlogin 1mo agoIn the last week I’ve had a madman yell A.I. ‘facts’ at me as he tells me how to do my job. I’ve had employees forward A.I. generated text instead of doing the work properly and had a former employee send A.I. generated letters pleading for a job. As you say, you have not stop caring. But its not necessarily easy to get to that point.
- ask1287 1mo agoI would be even more simple if everyone started giving a fuck.
- jimmoores 1mo agoThe way publications just regurgitate this stuff with no critical thought boggles my mind.
- bpodgursky 1mo agoShort it. NVDA is the most liquid market in history.
- stymaar 1mo ago“Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”
- the__alchemist 1mo agoIt's all factored in! The unimaginably vastness of the cosmos: Past, future, at astronomical through Planck scales. You have no agency; free will is an emergent phenomenon. You are not smarter than all those quants with their Ivy league degrees and 7 figure salaries, surely; the only winning move is not to play.
- dwaltrip 1mo agoYou can play the game of life. But most of us would be better off not gambling on high risk bets like shorting NVDA.
- runarberg 1mo agoDo not short it. I repeat, do not do this! Do not play the game of capitalism against expert capitalists who have spent the last few decades rigging the game more an more in their own favor. In very rare cases may be lucky but only for a short while. The more trades you make the more the odds stack against you, and you will loose everything. In a game where the odds are stacked against you, the only winning move is not to play. This is a financial advice.
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- vb-8448 1mo agoThe projected ai capex for this and next years is above 1000b/year. 673b/year doesn't sound so weird, if they manage to spent so much, obviously.
- ButlerianJihad 1mo ago[flagged]
- kennywinker 1mo agoI couldn’t find the 1000b number, but if that is “ai buildout capex” that means you think that 67% of every dollar spent on building data centers, training models, and running inference, is going directly to nvidia. Which is just silly on the face of it. Data centers need concrete, copper, DRAM, SSDs, and labour. That alone will cost more than 33%.
- lostlogin 1mo ago> Data centers need concrete, copper, DRAM, SSDs, and labour. That alone will cost more than 33%. Surely the land is a double digit percentage of their budget? I know they build in the middle of nowhere, but even then.
- chermi 1mo agoYeah but remember 1) stuff gets more expensive the more it's "processed"/further up the chain. It's hard to think of something further up the value chain than a modern gpu server. Just look at one input, asml machines. 2) a lot of dram, labor etc is also baked into the gpus.
- kennywinker 1mo agoSure. Obviously GPUs are expensive. My computer is more expensive and more processed than a 2x4, but that doesn't mean that my computer is a significant percentage of the value of my house. And it's pretty unclear what is included in the "capital expenditure" numbers. E.g. does it include training costs? does it include research costs? etc.
- clownpenis_fart 1mo ago[dead]
- drbscl 1mo agoSold after the price rise from this announcement. They can make the sales projection, but it doesn't mean they'll hit it: 1. Small models are rapidly growing in capability, require less compute to train and serve 2. There are more suppliers now, both in China & the US (OpenAI even have their own inferencing hardware now) 3. Memory still constrains how much they can ship in the short term
- shubhamjain 1mo agoEvery quarter I see a similar analysis, similar projection. Yet, they keep posting these insane numbers. Everyone knows it’s a bubble, the problem is determining the top. Nvidia is continuously showing the top is far far higher than everyone imagines.
- tuesdaynight 1mo agoI don't get why people say Nvidia is a bubble. They are selling products now, not in the future! If AI market collapses (I doubt it will happen), they will still be selling GPUs. They will make less money, but that is expected
- manquer 1mo agoBubble means inflated not fake, i.e when they make less money their stock will crash and bubble will pop, which is what people buying the stock today are concerned with , is this going to hold
- order-matters 1mo agothe bubble doesnt mean they are worthless only that after a pop the value of stock will drop significantly. it is out of their control if people overvalue the stock, and thats what creates the bubble which will eventually need to pop for self correction - but might trigger a massive oversale bringing the stock below actual value and causing all sorts of problems that will challenge the solvency of the company (basically challenging their liquid funds vs how much debt that they backed to their stock value). if they survive that then a bounce back is expected and buying while they were low would get you profit again. if they overleveraged themselves during the bubble bc they bought into the hype themselves, then they could face serious financial troubles and be susceptible to getting bought out.
- throwaway63467 1mo agoIt’s crazy that their profit margin is above 50 %, before the AI craze I only knew such margins from drug trafficking cartels (supposedly).
- intrasight 1mo agoAnd Apple
- shuwix 1mo agoWell, being best of the best always pays off. It's obviously hard to understand to people bad at everything.
- fsuts 1mo agoTSMC could charge more if they also lent the customer money to buy the chips Same with ASMl who are the sole company behind their machines. As could millions of other companies. This is an unprecedented circular debt gamble. The market price is not based on affordability but distorted by the seller.
- Jlagreen 1mo agoif TSMC decided to charge more then Nvidia would profit the most. Simple reason is that TSMC has to offer same pricing to all customers or face regulation issues. But expensive wafers is an issue for those with lower margins not the king of margins.
- sensanaty 1mo agoOr more accurately being top dog in a duopoly position pays off
- FergusArgyll 1mo agoHermes is close
- jedberg 1mo agoRemember, Nvidia sells services too, not just GPUs. They also sell full racks of servers. This is just sales, not profits.
- reducesuffering 1mo agoTheir profits are incredible too, they have 62% net margin! Last quarter $60b profit on $96b revenue. Since the "AI bubble going to pop" terrible takes 2 years ago, NVDA has made $300b in profits.
- simianwords 1mo agoThere's a specific type of person who makes a repeated joke like "sell shovels in a gold rush" - they think they have made the most insightful comment possible.
- throwaway85825 1mo agoA better question is what percent of that profit could be clawed back from loan guarantees. Unlike debt they dont give a consolidated number.
- ask1287 1mo agoPosts that question the AI Endsieg are flagged now. That is supreme confidence in the numbers.
- tinyhouse 1mo agoAs someone who uses AI all day it all makes sense. However, if AI is going to have serious impact white collar jobs as some people predict, the demand will decline. People without jobs won't pay for expensive subscriptions or API prices and the economy will be in recession. For me the important question is where the economy will be in the next 5 years. Because if the economy is doing well, I have no doubt the AI demand will continue to sky rocket. I don't think it matters to Nvidia how uses their compute, closed or open models. The win either way.
- Jlagreen 1mo agoEveryone looks way to narrow on nations. AI compute and AI usage is a global thing. Look at South Korea in the 70s and today. Technology helped South Korea to leapfrog many Western companies in a few decades. It will happen again. Many 3rd world countries have better mobile phone networks than Europe while they basically have ZERO copper in the ground. While in Western countries everyone is skeptical about AI, Asian countries are building robot armies to replace Western collar workers. So we think about regulation and bubbles while others think of how leapfrogging us. Invest and cost is 2 sides of the same coin. It's obvious what we see here and what others see around the globe.
- Jlagreen 1mo agoNvidia already announced in 2023 a partnerhsip for a 2 GW system in India. That was before even Blackwell was released. Back then that was a bigger deal than any Hyperscaler. Do people seriously think that data centers and AI compute is only built in US? WTF? Hyperscalers reach their limit in CapEx while Nvidia continues to grow. Nvidia has no limits since their TAM is every industry and every enterprise as well as every person in the world who is interested in using AI compute.
- mohitpaddhariya 1mo agocool stuff!!!!
- amelius 1mo agoIs this $673B coming mostly from BigAI? Or from individuals and smaller companies?
- amelius 1mo agoWhat if there are no memory chips for people to build hardware with, using nvidia components?
- dmix 1mo agoThere's been lots of investment in memory SK Hynix (together with Samsung and Nvidia) claims $700B investment [1], Samsung itself is investing $70B, Micron $25B, Sandisk announced $31B today [2] [1] https://asia.nikkei.com/business/technology/artificial-intelligence/samsung-sk-and-nvidia-join-700bn-us-korea-ai-push https://asia.nikkei.com/business/technology/artificial-intel... [2] https://www.wsj.com/tech/kioxia-sandisk-to-invest-more-than-31-billion-in-memory-chips-bb6bddbf https://www.wsj.com/tech/kioxia-sandisk-to-invest-more-than-...
- gigatexal 1mo agoMargin is insane. They made roughly double net income, pure profit, what Apple did (even if you take out the ~8B in paper gains from their investments in other AI shops) on 13B less revenue.
- heisenbit 1mo agoThis would require data centre cap-ex north of 1T and revenues from non AI companies in the same order of magnitude. Is it realistic to scale up data centre roll-outs? Are regular companies ready to re-allocate 1T? And this all happens in an environment where rates go up and many of the companies are not profitable?
- Havoc 1mo agoA long time ago I put money into Qualcomm and then just dumped the remaining cash into Nvidia. That did well but wow do I wish I had done the reverse
- amelius 1mo agoCan they even find the production slots at TSMC?
- consumer451 1mo agoI have not been paying much attention to the whole circular deal thing that NVIDIA is supposedly doing. As in, they invest in their clients, who buy their products. Can anyone who actually understands finance please explain a couple things to me? 1. Are those accusations are true in a significant way, and are actually a bad thing? 2. This claimed $673B in sales, how much of it comes from NVIDIA's own money, invested into their clients? Is there any way to know that?
- octaane 1mo agoIf I give you 10 dollars, and then you put it in your pocket, and then you take it out again and give me 10 dollars back - no actual economic growth occurred. It's simply shuffling money around; the amount stays the same.
- 0x457 1mo agoBut it’s not just dollars changing hands. If I invest N dollars in your hot-dog business, and you use some of that capital to buy equipment from me, I get revenue from the sale, and I still own an investment in your business. If you succeed, that investment can also make me money.
- pc86 1mo agoTwo economists are walking down a forest path and they come across a piece of animal excrement. The first economist turns to the second and says "I'll give you $100 to eat that!" The second one eats it and the first one gives him $100. They start walking again and a few minutes later they come to another piece of animal excrement. The second economist now looks at the first and says "I'll give you $100 to eat!" The first one eats it and collects his money. They walk a bit more and the first one says, "You know, I gave you $100 to eat shit, and you gave me the same $100 to eat shit. I can't help but think we both just ate shit for nothing." The second one responds, "That's not true at all! We increased the GDP by $200!"
- JumpCrisscross 1mo agoThis is basically true for any entertainment.