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Oil nears $110 a barrel after gas field strike
- RobRivera 7mo agoI read this to mean a labor-strike at first glance
- fla10212 7mo agoThe natural gas field strike very conveniently increases the EU dependencies on US LNG. The diversification via Qatar had already been shut down, now Israel drives the Iranian gas buyers to compete on the world market. It is a great plan. The Gulf Monarchies are weakened (that is what you get for your Trump bribes ...), the EU is weakened, and the US controls all energy flows. China can use the land route to Russia. The EU is going to commit economic suicide instead.
- cyberax 7mo ago[flagged]
- mlsu 7mo agoThat could work really well, or it could fail in a humiliating public way and totally confirm+legitimize that regime's paranoia. Huge downsides.
- OgsyedIE 7mo agoWouldn't they reciprocate the tactic instead?
- CamperBob2 7mo agoThey could try, but frankly, Russia's not very good at that game anymore. They have lost their mojo. Look how many swings they had to take at Navalny, and their feckless Novichok tomfoolery in the UK. My money's on the Secret Service.
- mkoubaa 7mo agoReal life isn't a James Bond movie. The next guy in line is more belligerent than Putin
- CamperBob2 7mo agoThen kill him too. Eventually nobody will want the job.
- deleted 7mo ago[deleted]
- jkestner 7mo agoI don't feel like that's working out so great in Iran.
- CamperBob2 7mo agoWe'll see, I guess. Early days.
- mkoubaa 7mo agoThat goes for both parties involved in the assassination game, and I'm pretty sure the Russians won't tap out first
- _trampeltier 7mo agoI I where the EU, I would send ops teams to assassinate Bibi.
- M3L0NM4N 7mo agoThat would be on-brand for European leadership. It's a good thing European countries aren't shutting down nuclear power plants and increasing dependence on Russian oil and gas...
- badpun 7mo agoPutin is not a mad dictator ruling against everyone’s wishes. He’s a leader of a large establishment elite which shares his views and gets very rich. If you replace Putin, most likely outcome is his replacement will not be very different (and probably worse, since the country will be even more anti-Western after the assassination)
- joezydeco 7mo agoExcept, like Trump, they get more stupid as you go.
- cyberax 7mo agoNope. Putin _is_ a mad dictator completely disconnected from the realities of Russia. Just like Maduro in Venezuela. So if he's killed, nobody is going to be bothered by this except a few dozen of his closest allies. Putin's regime is purely authoritarian ("information autocracy") it has _no_ ideology. Moreover, the government in Russia does everything it can to keep the population passive. And before you ask, Iran was different because it's _not_ an authoritarian country. It's a full-blown totalitarian theocracy with an official ideology and the elites there actually _believe_ in their doctrine. They have a core of people who will die rather than betray it. And most importantly, they have actual institutions that can survive the death of individuals.
- WJW 7mo agoYou could do this whole plan without needing to do the assassination part, as long as you are willing to throw Ukraine under the bus. Conversely, even if the assassination scheme goes exactly as planned, there is no way of guaranteeing that the new Russian leader would be willing to restart gas deliveries until the war in Ukraine has wrapped up. Given that especially the eastern EU countries have absolutely no intention of allowing Ukraine to lose, this seems like a very tall order. Finally, both Nordstream 1 AND Nordstream 2 still have a gaping holes in them from the bombings so restarting deliveries will probably take several years at least. All in all, this plan gets only a 2 out of 10 for being impractical, too slow AND depending on factors outside our control. 1 point because it does at least sound spy-ish and proactive.
- Theodores 7mo agoThe problem for Europe is that they have nothing to trade with Russia. They can get better prices elsewhere. Before 2022 we had the big EU auto companies in Russia, we also had nice handbags, shoes and outfits to sell to Russia. Plus we could have them hide their money in London property. Machine tools were also a brisk trade. Nowadays Russia needs nothing from Europe. Nothing apart from peace and their 300 billion back. But we have gone past that stage. The Russians have never broken any energy contracts in this, the West has cut themselves off. Regarding the EU not wanting the former Ukraine to lose, there is a difference between what the officials want and what the people want. From Finland to Portugal I am sure most people would want no war and cheap energy, however, their 'leaders' are just doing what Washington tells them to do.
- bluGill 7mo agoHuh? Even in the US the majority are sympathetic to Ukraine in every survey. Sure we all want no war - but we are not really in favor of no war at any price.
- distances 7mo agoDelusional. In Europe people want not to just see Ukraine win, but also Russia to lose. It's the leaders that are timid, the people would like to see much wider ranging support for Ukraine. The Russian energy will not be accepted again in Europe for the foreseeable future, ending the war will not change that.
- deleted 7mo ago[deleted]
- pphysch 7mo agoThese "decapitation" strikes can't be much more than narcissistic projection. Trump and Netanyahu are "unilateralists" (de facto dictators) and narcissists, and think everyone else must be as well, ergo decapitation strikes must be successful. It may have been true in the case of Maduro, but the jury is out (we also "decapitated" Hugo Chavez in the early 2000s but he came roaring back). It is emphatically not true in the case of Iran, Russia, China, DPRK or any state that has been truly sovereign for a couple generations. These states have deep political power structures that don't rely on the whims of one individual.
- thenthenthen 7mo agoThis^, also quite bizarre to read all the blood thirsty comments above… what is this, 4chan?
- skeeter2020 7mo agoIt really feels like we need to re-read or Orwell to understand how these countries operate. Trump believes the narrative you spelled out above because it's simple and reinforces his personal view, but it's just not true of these long-lived autocratic states. You may see power concentrated in a single individual but the entire system behaves the same way. "Kill the body and the head will die" takes a lot more work & discipline then lopping off a few necks of the hydra and hoping they don't multiply.
- reillyse 7mo agoA terrible idea, you think the Russians are going to appreciate you killing their leader? A better idea is to try to get Russia to join the EU and use an open market to exert control over the more extreme behaviors and tendencies in Russia. A lot of Russian behavior is based on paranoia (completely justifiable paranoia when you see the way the US is behaving) so perhaps having them in the European fold will chill them out a bit - obviously this is far fetched but it's at least a way to fix this long term.
- cyberax 7mo ago> A terrible idea, you think the Russians are going to appreciate you killing their leader? As a Russian? Absolutely yes. We had a dry run 3 years ago, during Prigozhin's mutiny. He was advancing towards Moscow at freeway speeds, and the population was happily taking pictures. Nobody was organizing barricades, protests, or pro-government rallies.
- reillyse 7mo agoPutin is very popular in Russia. As a Russian you have to be aware of that right? As for Prigozhin what happened to him? I didn't see a lot of mourning or protests when he got knocked off. Propaganda in the US likes to focus on the idea that politicians and leaders in other countries are not very popular and your comment doesn't really help that. The reality as you well know is that Putin has a strong base in Russia among Russians.
- DanTheManPR 7mo agoThe West is getting very cavalier about murdering the government officials of other countries.
- lazzurs 7mo agoA window in Russia is likely far more deadly than any of the western security services.
- SV_BubbleTime 7mo agoEU has had a lot of time to recognize the situation they have been in regarding energy. Sorry, but this will never not be not amusing. Where Trump being a stopped clock warns the UN about relying on foreign energy and the German delegation laughs as they were shutting down their nuclear and increasing reliance on Russia for energy. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FfJv9QYrlwg https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FfJv9QYrlwg
- fla10212 7mo agoTrump? The same Trump that threatened Greenland while the EU is relying on US LNG? Indeed the EU should not rely on US energy. Trump is completely inconsistent anyway. First he blamed the EU for wanting to continue the Ukraine war. Then he periodically floats lifting Russia sanctions. But if the EU were to lift Russia sanctions, that of course would lead to severe repercussions. Trump is about economic suppression of the EU. If you say "nuclear energy". The US has imported Russian uranium to at least 2025.
- 1718627440 7mo ago> EU has had a lot of time to recognize the situation they have been in regarding energy. There is no case of they just needed to pay attention earlier. The problem is known. There is just no good solution. Drastically scaling back energy consumption isn't going to happen any time soon and would harm the economy. So we can choose between Russia, the Middle East and the USA. Best would be of course to reduce fossil use, but that is orthogonal.
- CamperBob2 7mo agoThere is just no good solution. Refraining from shutting down their nuclear plants for no good reason would have been a start.
- triceratops 7mo agoThat's not a solution. A solution is something you can actually do.
- epistasis 7mo agoGreat plan for whom? Trump is headed towards Nixon levels of popularity and Nixon methods of ejection with this sort of stuff. The war is hugely unpopular, Trump is less popular, and if gasoline prices stay high and we get involved in a ground war there may be a popular revolution even before Democrats get elected and are able to impeach. Deals done in Yuan will still get through Hormuz. EU could switch currencies for fossil fuels, get their energy, and further lessen their dependence on a US that expresses nothing but hate and disgust for the EU.
- mkoubaa 7mo agoNixon method of ejection indeed. He did say he wanted regime change after all
- spankalee 7mo agoPopularity doesn't matter. The only thing that will remove Trump from office is Jan 20th 2029.
- bluGill 7mo agoThat is probably when he leaves office - but congress can stop a lot of things he is doing if they try.
- epistasis 7mo agoPopularity is the core of everything in a democracy. The reason Republicans are terrified of Trump and fall in lockstep is that Trump can get rid of them via primaries, and that requires Trump's popularity with a small but rabid MAGA base. But Republicans in 2028 will have to survive an election without Trump bringing that base to the ballot. If Trump's popularity falls to Nixon levels, and the MAGA coalition continues to fracture at the current rate it's falling apart, within a year or tow, there could very well be 60 votes in the senate that go against Trump.
- loudmax 7mo ago> It is a great plan. Let's be real here. Nothing this administration ever does is planned.
- fla10212 7mo agoThe plans to destabilize Syria and Iran have existed since the Obama administration. Trump is just the hatchet man.
- krior 7mo agoThere is a stark difference between planning something and actually doing it.
- fla10212 7mo agoThe Syria part was quietly executed under Biden, whose administration deserves full credit. "Destabilizing" means fragmenting, I'm not saying that Assad was any good of course.
- orwin 7mo agoSyria was in a civil war since 2015. The US (and Israel and Russia) failed to control their intelligence assets on the ground. Sadly we don't have Hillary's emails like for Lybia, so I can't mock France DGSE for loosing their asset, and control over the rebels, within two weeks. In Syria it might have taken years, but considering the reaction of the US, Israel and Russia to the sudden Syria push, I guarantee the admin in power wasn't informed. What is more likely is that they lost actionable assets during COVID. At best the CIA was aware but didn't inform Mossad not the US, but that would be giving them a lot of credit.
- DANmode 7mo agoEvery figurehead plays their part.
- onedognight 7mo ago> Nothing this administration ever does is planned. You are joking, right? Project 2025 has achieved 50% of its goals in record time[0]. Trump disavowed both it and invading Iran, but make no mistake. Both were “the plan”. [0] https://www.project2025.observer/en https://www.project2025.observer/en
- OgsyedIE 7mo agoIt's important to clarify that these are the trading prices at the main oil futures exchange in London. The spot prices in the landing hubs like Gujarat, Odisha and Singapore are significantly higher. If you or your firm handles trucking or mining or tractors or something like buses, stock up on additives where the vast majority of production (like brake fluid, AdBlue (DEF) and gear oil) is Asian now before they get even more expensive. To give a sense of perspective, I've seen prices for transmission fluid and antifreeze almost double month-on-month in England where I am.
- ck2 7mo agovarious markets, all of them I think https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/ https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/
- jmclnx 7mo agoAgain the US admin proves how dumb they are, even Pres. Bush II knew it would be real stupid to attack Iran. But one thing, higher oil prices may get the US to really get working to avoid Climate Change. Yes, some progress has been made, but real CO2 emissions is increasing. The only time it decreased a bit was during the Covid Shutdown. But one plus may occur, higher price of oil. Yes, higher prices will cause suffering with the poor and middle classes, but that suffering pales in comparison to what +1.5C will cause. We are already on track for more then 2C. Suffering from that will be far worse than $150 USD price per barrel. Better to take a small hit now and hope it can keep us below 1.5C then trying to live with 2C. Yes, I posted this knowing it will be down-voted, but cheap oil only makes +3C guaranteed to happen. Who cares about the young anyway /s
- reillyse 7mo agoI think you are failing to understand how (some) people think in the US. Expensive oil for some means that we should drill more oil wells. There is money sitting under the ground and we stick a pipe down and get it - AMAZING. That is how people think about high oil prices. If oil was to go to zero people would stop pumping it and burning it (for that to happen the alternatives have to be cheaper/better). That is what will fix climate change in the US.
- SauntSolaire 7mo agoThe demand for oil will likely never truly go to zero; too many products (outside of energy generation) rely on their byproducts. As for the bigger picture — yes, higher prices for oil might spur extraction in regions outside of the middle east, but that's a local only viewpoint. Globally, higher oil prices reduce consumption and make green alternatives more attractive on net.
- esseph 7mo ago> Globally, higher oil prices reduce consumption When oil is high, GDP takes a hit. Less is happening.
- 7mo ago
- ck2 7mo agobtw fertilizer prices are now 40% higher this is going to destroy world economy on every angle fuel and now food it's like the Israeli's figured out the answer to their problem was to make it everyone's problem how about we stop giving them offensive weapons, defensive only or we'll be going through this every decade
- giraffe_lady 7mo agoAny effective defensive weapon is an offensive weapon, in that it allows you to commit other resources to offense, or defend against a retaliation in response to an escalating offense on your part.
- cousin_it 7mo agoYeah, any kind of aid (e.g. food or medicine) allows the people you're aiding to spend more on the military if they want. I guess the only way around it is to set limits on someone's military capability and make aid conditional on not crossing these limits.
- bluGill 7mo agoWhy are you blaming Israel? Iran has been fueling the fires for year by send piles of money and weapons to anyone who had a serious plan to attack Israel. Not that Israel is perfect, but there is plenty of blame to go around and recognizing that reality is required before we can even try to think of a solution. (I don't have one)
- pphysch 7mo agoThere are vague allegations of Iran being the "leading state sponsor of terror" on one scale, and then Israel openly doing a genocide and starting wars of aggression and assassinating countless civilian and military leaders on the other scale, with a growing number of American bodies as cannon fodder. It is up to you to decide where justice lies.
- 7mo ago
- thow7987922o 7mo ago[flagged]
- deleted 7mo ago[deleted]
- 10xDev 7mo agoRelax, go outside, touch grass. The sun will rise again.
- thow7987922o 7mo ago[dead]
- 10xDev 7mo agohttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/This_too_shall_pass https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/This_too_shall_pass
- rwyinuse 7mo agoEnd of civilization takes a lot more than high oil/fertilizer prices, even if it causes famine in poorer countries.
- bigbadfeline 7mo ago> End of civilization takes a lot more than high oil/fertilizer prices, Energy prices factor into everything else, so there literally will be a lot more than higher oil/fertilizer prices. The end of civilized relations between countries is a sign of sick and dying civilization and we are there already, plenty of other evidence too. > even if it causes famine in poorer countries. So compassionate of you.
- 1718627440 7mo agoIn the worst there will be some people dying, a lot of people get poor and maybe democracies will be replaced by feudal structures. It's still far away from the end of civilization.
- fpoling 7mo agoWith this prices it is cheaper to make fuel from coal, the break even price was about 80-90 USD/barrel. And if this continues for months this will pushes wind and solar and electrical cars making natural gas and oil much less relevant. Maybe that was the plan.
- overfeed 7mo ago> Maybe that was the plan. Whose?
- Fomite 7mo agoNowhere in deciding to attack Iran was "maybe this will help wind, solar and electric cars."
- bdangubic 7mo agoplans change… :)
- karmakurtisaani 7mo agoThis would require there to be a plan in the first place..
- bdangubic 7mo agono plan is not a plan? :)
- H8crilA 7mo agoThe Mossad and various abrahamic apocalyptic cults will finally push us into green tech. Maybe I judged them too harshly.
- pickleglitch 7mo ago> And if this continues for months this will pushes wind and solar and electrical cars making natural gas and oil much less relevant. Maybe that was the plan. This is one of the most batshit insane things I've ever read. What on Earth would make you think this?
- ChrisArchitect 7mo agoEarlier: Iran's South Pars Gas Field Is Attacked by Israel, Sending Energy Prices Soaring https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47428611 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47428611
- epsters 7mo agoIsraeli Defense Minister said earlier today that “Significant surprises are expected today across all arenas that will escalate the war to a new level.” And now they have targeted the world's largest gas field (shared with Qatar). Iranians have said they would retaliate against oil fields and refineries in Israel and the Gulf. But since the majority of US air defenses have been diverted in defense of Israel it looks like the gulf arab states will bear the brunt of the retaliation. It looks like they have already successfully struck targets in Saudi Arabia[1] and Qatar[2]. This is the moral hazard in action as a result of unconditional support for the rogue-state that is Israel . Israel continues to escalate since they face little of the consequences - being under the US security umbrella. It is the rest of the world that pays the price instead (apart from Russia). In a sane world we would be changing this equation such as by pulling air defense, air support, lethal aid, air tankers support, EWACs, intelligence and satellite sharing, defense away from Israel. But the Trump administration and indeed the collective west seems to be under the chokehold of the Israel lobby. [1] - https://x.com/MenchOsint/status/2034348372346245584 https://x.com/MenchOsint/status/2034348372346245584 (alt : https://xcancel.com/MenchOsint/status/2034348372346245584 https://xcancel.com/MenchOsint/status/2034348372346245584 ) [2] - https://x.com/MenchOsint/status/2034340405060194649 https://x.com/MenchOsint/status/2034340405060194649 (alt : https://xcancel.com/MenchOsint/status/2034340405060194649 https://xcancel.com/MenchOsint/status/2034340405060194649)
- karmakurtisaani 7mo agoWe can't even get Israel out of the Eurovision song contest. Having them face any real consequences is still far away.
- cat-turner 7mo agoEpstein tax. Expect $200 a barrel by Easter Sunday.
- nojvek 7mo agoMay be this is how we get decentralized solar grids and accelerate moving away from fossil fuels. Bomb the oil infra in a stupid war that a senile old 80 year baby wanted.