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US Job Market Visualizer

503 points by andygcook 7mo ago

zenon_paradox 7mo ago
[dead]
tencentshill 7mo ago
[flagged]
- bigyikes 7mo ago
  Does it matter if the author is a renowned expert in the field?
  - paxys 7mo ago
    Expert in AI != expert in labor markets. All the "research" on the site comes from a single LLM prompt.
  - orphea 7mo ago
    No. You can be an expert in one field, and have no idea what you're doing in another.
    - georgemcbay 7mo ago
      > You can be an expert in one field, and have no idea what you're doing in another. And for whatever reason a lot of people in startup/tech seem to have a huge Dunning-Kruger effect blind spot where they believe knowing a lot about one thing makes them an expert in everything. This used to just be funny, but when it started to intersect with politics it began to actively contribute to destroying society. It isn't funny anymore. (I don't think Karpathy's job data here is destroying society, this is a more generalized observation).
      - thejazzman 7mo ago
        It is wild that ya'll are hating on a website that visualizes data. That's like table stakes standard common practice for software engineers for decades. This is the equivalence of telling a Designer that can't create infographics on anything but principled design subjects -- or else they're out of line. Any research or data they might use isn't relevant because they're not exerts? lol?
        paxys 7mo ago
        > a website that visualizes data It is a website that visualizes the output of an LLM prompt and passes it off as data. Big difference between the two.
        anonymous_user9 7mo ago
        The problem is that the data it's visualizing is fake. The color grading is just an AI guessing how susceptible jobs are.
      - KellyCriterion 7mo ago
        THIS: > And for whatever reason a lot of people in startup/tech seem to have a huge Dunning-Kruger effect blind spot where they believe knowing a lot about one thing makes them an expert in everything. < Its especially(!) very common for people who made an exit and are now "wealthy" - sure they can afford to have an oppinion on everything, but very often they are just talking bullshit, thinking: "hey, I made it in field X, so why do not try field Y". Esp the "MBA crowd" is famous for this: For whatever reason they think they are more intelligent than ana engineer who filed a patent, e.g. (while most of the MBA bobos would fail just in acquiring all documents required for this) Other example: If you wrote once a book and it got traction, even if you are not a proven expert you will be invited to television shows etc. (and MORE than the people who are real experts with proven track record)
  - danny_codes 7mo ago
    [dead]
  - faangguyindia 7mo ago
    Show HN isn't about being expert.
- throwaw12 7mo ago
  The VIEW could be AI slop, but underlying CONTENT has some meaning. There is definitely impact on Software engineering jobs at the moment, interns/juniors are struggling to find jobs, companies are squeezing every bit of dev slack time to produce more stuff with AI.
  - nerevarthelame 7mo ago
    > The VIEW could be AI slop, but underlying CONTENT has some meaning. There is definitely impact on Software engineering jobs at the moment, interns/juniors are struggling to find jobs Is that notion supported by this content? The BLS Outlook for most software engineering jobs is most in the "much faster than average" growth range.
    - throwaw12 7mo ago
      BLS outlook is based on historical trends and inertia, both could be true at the same time: * Yes software engineering jobs can grow - by increasing demand for custom software thanks to coding agents unlock * AI can impact it - by making software engineers LLM code approvers
      - nerevarthelame 7mo ago
        I'm not saying that your assessments are wrong. But you were talking about how valuable this content is, and I don't understand how the insight you claimed to get from the visualization ("There is definitely impact on Software engineering jobs at the moment, interns/juniors are struggling to find jobs") could at all be discernible from the visualization.
    - lotsofpulp 7mo ago
      BLS outlook is comically bad. For example, BLS had pharmacists' outlook as amazing all throughout the 2010s, while /r/pharmacy and sdnforums had a constant stream of posts complaining about declining pay and quality of life at work, all while the pharmacy business' profit margins and number of employers declined. What would be useful is tracking the change in minimum pay per hour from legitimate job listings, now that there are quite a few states that require posting pay ranges on job listings.
- faangguyindia 7mo ago
  Meanwhile my show HN didn't even get single upvote or any comment. Sigh...
  - KellyCriterion 7mo ago
    Maybe you forgot AI, or blockchain or DeFi or all of these three? :-D /s
treyfitty 7mo ago
Data is coming from BLS. Their data lags the true state of affairs, and their growth projections are never reliable. Remember when they touted from 2000-2010 that Actuaries are the hottest growing field with the best forward looking outlook? BLS forward looking guidance means nothing when technology revolutionizes the nature of work.
- c0d3rPrimate 7mo ago
  [dead]
- just_once 7mo ago
  It wasn't even that long ago that Trump fired the BLS Commissioner and nominated someone that would "restore GREATNESS" to the BLS. Putting aside the slop facade place atop the data....why would we trust the data?
- CGMthrowaway 7mo ago
  What do you believe is the true state of affairs?
  - elictronic 7mo ago
    With poor data it’s whatever you say it is.
    - emp17344 7mo ago
      How convenient!
- the_arun 7mo ago
  Are we assuming - the data is of high quality? If quality isn't good, it is as good as synthetic data.
- exhumet 7mo ago
  lol i always wondered how actuary ever crossed the radar of my partner in college and this must have been it. hey they just finished up their FCAS cert and they are riding quite high and quite comfy. but it is for sure a very small pool of people just due to the immense work needed to get that point.
paxys 7mo ago
> You are an expert analyst evaluating how exposed different occupations are to AI. You will be given a detailed description of an occupation from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. > Rate the occupation's overall AI Exposure on a scale from 0 to 10. The sad part isn't that this is low-effort AI slop, but that intelligent people and policy makers are going to see it and probably make important decisions impacting themselves and others based on these numbers.
- jeffbee 7mo ago
  This is 99.44% slop! You are completely correct. The "exposure" is based entirely on vibes and does not correspond to observable reality. Down here in the real world the very first sector that is being disrupted is manual farm labor. They are out here with machine vision and quadcopters picking fruit. But according to the prompt that produces the treemap, manual labor has an exposure rank of zero.
visarga 7mo ago
If AI produces surplus where does it go? Not talking about investment backed datacenter buildout and AI labs. Talking about the results of AI work... I think AI outcomes distribute to contexts where it is used, and produce a change in how we work, what work we take on. Competition takes care of taking those surpluses and investing them in new structure, which becomes load bearing and we can't do without it anymore. In the end it looks like we are treading water, just like it was when computers got 1M times faster in a couple of decades, but we felt very little improvement in earnings or reduction in work. Surplus becomes structure and the changed structure is something you can't function without. Like the cell and mitochondrion, after they merged they can't be apart, can't pay their costs individually anymore. Surplus is absorbed into the baseline cost.
- lm28469 7mo ago
  > If AI produces surplus where does it go? Not talking about investment backed datacenter buildout and AI labs. Talking about the results of AI work... The 1% pockets, this is where the vast majority of the extra productivity computers/internet/automation brought goes to for the last 50 years: https://www.epi.org/productivity-pay-gap/ https://www.epi.org/productivity-pay-gap/
  - matthest 7mo ago
    The study doesn't say it went into the 1%'s pockets. It says it went to 2 places: 1) The salaries of corporate employees 2) Shareholders and capital owners Regarding number 2: "Shareholders" would include anyone who owns any stock at all, including a lot of middle class people with a simple S&P 500 ETF in their portfolio. And the increase in productivity allowed more people to become capital owners, AKA entrepreneurs. The explosion in software entrepreneurs, for example.
    - lm28469 7mo ago
      Then why are wealth inequalities exploding? Why are we just about to witness the first trillionaire? Because no matter what fairy tales you want to believe in your $20 "invested" in palantir won't make you a "shareholder" lmao
coldcity_again 7mo ago
>Software Developers +15% Yay! >Computer Programmers: -6% Oh no
- Kerrick 7mo ago
  Software Developers median pay according to BLS: $131,450 per year (Source: https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/software-developers.htm#tab-1 https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/...) Computer Programmers median pay according to BLS: $98,670 per year (Source: https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-programmers.htm#tab-1 https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/...) Software developers typically do the following: - Analyze users’ needs and then design and develop software to meet those needs Recommend software upgrades for customers’ existing programs and systems Design each piece of an application or system and plan how the pieces will work together - Create a variety of models and diagrams showing programmers the software code needed for an application - Ensure that a program continues to function normally through software maintenance and testing - Document every aspect of an application or system as a reference for future maintenance and upgrades (Source: https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/software-developers.htm#tab-2 https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/...) Computer programmers typically do the following: - Write programs in a variety of computer languages, such as C++ and Java - Update and expand existing programs - Test programs for errors and fix the faulty lines of computer code - Create, modify, and test code or scripts in software that simplifies development (Source: https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-programmers.htm#tab-2 https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/...)
  - marcosdumay 7mo ago
    Still look the same to me.
    - shagie 7mo ago
      In older distinctions, there were Systems Developers and Application Developers and Computer Programmers. The distinction largely was around that "Computer Programmers took the specifications from Developers and implemented them." It feels like the intent was that "Programmers" were the ones doing the routine / lower skill tasks while the Developers were the ones that did the specification and architecture. Those got juggled around and largely people getting listed as "Computer Programmer" is going down as the company relists them as Software Developer. This is also part of the confusion of "Web Developer" which is also in there. It reflects what government thought management thought title and roles were some years ago. --- Edit: From days of old: https://web.archive.org/web/20110616142157/https://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes151132.htm https://web.archive.org/web/20110616142157/https://www.bls.g... 15-1132 Software Developers, Applications Develop, create, and modify general computer applications software or specialized utility programs. Analyze user needs and develop software solutions. Design software or customize software for client use with the aim of optimizing operational efficiency. May analyze and design databases within an application area, working individually or coordinating database development as part of a team. May supervise computer programmers. https://web.archive.org/web/20110531043521/http://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes151133.htm https://web.archive.org/web/20110531043521/http://www.bls.go... 15-1133 Software Developers, Systems Software Research, design, develop, and test operating systems-level software, compilers, and network distribution software for medical, industrial, military, communications, aerospace, business, scientific, and general computing applications. Set operational specifications and formulate and analyze software requirements. May design embedded systems software. Apply principles and techniques of computer science, engineering, and mathematical analysis. https://web.archive.org/web/20110925005933/http://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes151131.htm https://web.archive.org/web/20110925005933/http://www.bls.go... 15-1131 Computer Programmers Create, modify, and test the code, forms, and script that allow computer applications to run. Work from specifications drawn up by software developers or other individuals. May assist software developers by analyzing user needs and designing software solutions. May develop and write computer programs to store, locate, and retrieve specific documents, data, and information. Note that the specifying part of it isn't done by the programmers but the other roles. ... And for completness https://web.archive.org/web/20130624010204/http://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes151134.htm https://web.archive.org/web/20130624010204/http://www.bls.go... 15-1134 Web Developers Design, create, and modify Web sites. Analyze user needs to implement Web site content, graphics, performance, and capacity. May integrate Web sites with other computer applications. May convert written, graphic, audio, and video components to compatible Web formats by using software designed to facilitate the creation of Web and multimedia content. Excludes "Multimedia Artists and Animators" (27-1014).
vvoyer 7mo ago
I wish there would be a color blind friendly version of this. I have deuteranopia and can’t distinguish red from green in the page.
- morley 7mo ago
  Out of curiosity, what colors (or text treatments) do you personally prefer to confer "gain" and "loss"?
  - ProfessorLayton 7mo ago
    It's not about preference, but about being able to see the differences in the first place, so any sufficiently contrast combination should work. If you turn on the color filters in accessibility settings in macOS you can see what the contrast could look like to a colorblind person.
  - seanwilson 7mo ago
    For color deficiencies, different lightnesses are safe e.g. dark for loss and light for gain (could be dark reds for loss and light greens for gain, but don't mix the lightnesses). Other options are icons/shapes (like up/down arrows) or pattern fills (like stripes for loss). The general trick is you can rely on differences in color lightness, patterns, text and icons, but not differences in color hue. The page should be usable in grayscale.
  - torgoguys 7mo ago
    I don't have any color discrimination deficiencies, but it is my understanding that for various types of signage, the move has been towards RED=bad/danger/etc, and BLUE (instead of green)=good/safe/etc.
  - vvoyer 6mo ago
    You're not gonna believe it but NONE colors, my brain doesn't process colors because I know I cannot trust them to be correct. So I use shapes, numbers, arrows. Ask a colorblind person to explain how to win at candy crush and you'll be surprised (hint: we do not use colors, we use the shapes).
bwhiting2356 7mo ago
Are childcare and kindergarten teachers really exposed to AI? In theory, we could put a class of 30 children in front of chatbots with one supervisor. But I doubt we would chose to do this as a society. If office work becomes more automated, early childhood education is actually one area I'd expect to take up the Slack. I can't imagine a situation where we have millions of unemployed former office workers but we leave them idle and let our children waste away in front of screens.
- kevinsync 7mo ago
  Childcare and education requires a specific tolerance, mindset and passion to be effective though. I'd be curious how many previously-PMs or HR drones or email jockeys would be adequate (let alone thrive) in an environment where there are next-to-nonexistent budgets, and you're servicing literal babies and tiny children lol On second thought, client service folks might do extremely well here!
  - downrightmike 7mo ago
    Con: kids
  - KellyCriterion 7mo ago
    >specific tolerance, mindset and passion What you mention here is the exact thing why my earlier relationship went bust, because I didnt have any of these, then the children arrived :-X
- linhns 7mo ago
  I'd say yes. One teacher can use AI and be able to cover for more children. Thus less teachers are required.
  - rwyinuse 7mo ago
    That could work in ideal world where children behave nicely, and are eager to learn. But in reality that's not the case. Especially in high school big part of teacher's job is keeping order and being the authority figure. Good luck replacing that with LLM.
calvinmorrison 7mo ago
I'd like to see this but - not sure if it is already - adjusted by total pay. so # employed * average salary. A -4.0% hit to cashiers may have less of an impact than -4.0% to lawyers or another category that is propping up the middle of the economy with spending.
- technotony 7mo ago
  It's the other way around. Cashier's spend their 4 percent, where's the lawyers probably save it. Though of course median salary for the two categories means 4 percent change is different in absolute dollars
zkmon 7mo ago
Mouse hover seems to be critical for this visualization. Not much useful in mobile.
- kklisura 7mo ago
  Rendered via canvas. Ugh.
observationist 7mo ago
It's kinda cool to see a whole lot of otherwise intelligent people who are so dogmatically and ideologically opposed to anything AI that they're going to willfully dismiss anything that AI produces regardless of utility. It's not great for them, but it's a definite advantage for people who are already in the mindset of distinguishing and discriminating information and sources on merit, instead of running an "AI bad" rubric as part of their filter. AI has already won. It's taking over. It might be a year or two, or five, or ten, but AI isn't slowing down, nobody is going to pause, and there's a whole shit ton of work people do that won't be meaningful or economically relevant in the very near term. Jevons paradox isn't relevant to cognitive surplus - you need a very different model to capture what's going to happen. It's time to surf or drown, because it doesn't look like any of the people in charge have the slightest clue about how to handle what's coming.
- toomuchtodo 7mo ago
  It is free for you to say this, because if you're wrong, there will be no consequences. Words are cheap. No different than various CEOs saying "AI will replace these workers" and now having to hire back those they laid off. Klarna, Salesforce, etc. Will be a great comment to reference in the future to capture the exuberance of the times. Companies Are Laying Off Workers Because of AI’s Potential - Not Its Performance - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47401368 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47401368 - March 2026 > Some companies that announced large headcount reductions because of AI have since revised their talent strategies or have faced public criticism. Klarna, for example, the Swedish fintech that offers “buy now, pay later” e-commerce loans, reduced its human workforce by 40% between December 2022 and December 2024 as it invested in AI. (The company used a hiring freeze and natural attrition, not layoffs to achieve this cut.) But in 2025 the company’s CEO told Bloomberg that Klarna was reinvesting in human support, explaining that prioritizing lower costs had also led to “lower quality.” A spokesman told HBR that the company has hired about 20 people to deal with customer service cases the AI assistant can’t handle, and that the use of AI “changes the profile of the human agents you need in the customer support role.” The language-learning company Duolingo announced that AI would be used to replace many human contractors, and it faced considerable criticism on social media. > For one, AI typically performs specific tasks and not entire jobs. As an example, Nobel laureate Geoffrey Hinton stated in 2016 that it was “completely obvious” that AI would outperform human radiologists within five years. A decade later, there is no evidence that a single radiologist has lost a job to AI—in part because radiologists perform many tasks other than reading scan images. Indeed, there is a substantial shortage of them. The 'AI-Washing' of Job Cuts Is Corrosive and Confusing - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47401499 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47401499 - March 2026 * Companies are "AI washing" layoffs, blaming artificial intelligence for workforce reductions they would have made anyway, according to OpenAI CEO Sam Altman. * A Resume.org survey found that 59% of hiring managers say they emphasize AI's role in layoffs because it "is viewed more favorably by stakeholders than saying layoffs or hiring freezes are driven by financial constraints". * The stated reason for the layoff matters more than the fact of the layoff, and framing cuts as proactive restructuring around AI can result in a valuation boost, even if the technology doesn't actually work. > The AI premium isn’t even reliable. By late 2025, Goldman Sachs group Inc. found that investors were actually punishing AI-attributed layoffs, with shares falling an average of 2%. The analysts concluded that investors simply didn’t believe the companies. But Block’s surge shows the incentive hasn’t vanished. It’s just a lottery instead of a sure thing. And executives keep buying tickets. > The broader data confirms the gap between narrative and reality. A National Bureau of Economic Research study published in February surveyed thousands of C-suite executives across the US, UK, Germany and Australia. Almost 90% said AI had zero impact on employment over the past three years. Challenger, Gray & Christmas tracked 1.2 million layoffs in 2025, and AI was cited in fewer than 55,000 of them. That’s 4.5%. Plain old “market and economic conditions” accounted for four times as many. So! Sophisticated capital market participants don't believe this; why do people here? AI is making CEOs delusional [video] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q6nem-F8AG8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q6nem-F8AG8 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
rib3ye 7mo ago
Cool site and Andrej is the man. But the BLS data... > Taxi Drivers, Shuttle Drivers, and Chauffeurs > Overall employment of taxi drivers, shuttle drivers, and chauffeurs is projected to grow 9 percent from 2024 to 2034, much faster than the average for all occupations. ...word?
- akramachamarei 7mo ago
  I just started reading Snow Crash; cool name!
nsvd2 7mo ago
Interestingly, it seems from these statistics the median wage for individuals with a Master's is lower than a Bachelor's. I wonder if that's because of immigrants who pursue higher education for visa reasons skewing the data.
- lotsofpulp 7mo ago
  Other possible reason could be many or most Masters degrees not conferring additional pricing power, and those people’s Bachelors degrees also confer lower pricing power. Edit: Another possible reason that Masters degrees were less common in the past, so the Bachelors pay statistics skew towards people with more work experience in their higher earning years, whereas the Masters pay statistics skew towards younger people with less work experience.
- post-it 7mo ago
  Anecdotally, many people get a bachelor's degree to check a box for job applications, whereas many people get a master's degree because they love the field and/or are afraid to leave school. My friends and I who have a bachelor's degree in CS make more money than my friends who have or are working towards master's degrees in CS, because the former are working in the private sector and the latter are in academia making peanuts.
- mothballed 7mo ago
  Masters seems to be a common theme in a few lower paying expansive fields like social work and education. I don't think that someone with a masters is typically making less in the same field all else equal.
holmesworcester 7mo ago
It's wild that there are as many jobs in the category "Top Executives" as in the category "Retail Sales Worker". This makes sense given both automation and the US's role in the global economy, but it runs somewhat contrary to standard ideas of class and inequality.
- MeetingsBrowser 7mo ago
  > it runs somewhat contrary to standard ideas of class and inequality. Can you elaborate?
  - pc86 7mo ago
    When people think "top executives" they think of a very, very small group of people making tens of millions of dollars a year or much more. The reality is that that's not the case.
- nitwit005 7mo ago
  I took one glance at the chart and decided the results were impossible because of that. Apparently "top executive" median pay is $105,350 per year: https://www.bls.gov/ooh/management/top-executives.htm https://www.bls.gov/ooh/management/top-executives.htm
  - SpicyLemonZest 7mo ago
    Sounds plausible? Even a company with 100 employees and few growth prospects is likely to have a couple of executives, and most companies are small.
    - andrewmutz 7mo ago
      If you own a painting company with three employees you are a CEO and fall in the top executives category. You may or may not make 100k a year.
  - next_xibalba 7mo ago
aaroninsf 7mo ago
Almost everyone I know is limited to two areas, and of those, 90% are in one corner.
sublinear 7mo ago
I enjoy that this visualization directly contradicts the mainstream narrative that white collar work is being replaced by blue collar work.
deleted 7mo ago
[deleted]
alexfromapex 7mo ago
It looks like this is using 2024 data so quite old?
ncr100 7mo ago
Nifty! Needs - [utility] add filter by keyword / substring match, e.g majority of visualized reports are un-labeled requiring hovering with a mouse pointer - [improve discovery] add sort by demographic / pop impact, e.g largest block is 7m ('Hand laborers and movers') and default sorted to bottom-left
givemeethekeys 7mo ago
Question for those in the know: are IT jobs being affected the same as software engineering jobs with all the consolidation and AI? Whats the outlook like? Thank you!
- quietsegfault 7mo ago
  Like, IT helpdesk? Yes. Almost all of the tickets I create as a "knowledge worker" to my enterprise helpdesk are sloved by an AI assistant - group ownership, adding me to an app, etc.
  - givemeethekeys 7mo ago
    I meant more generally - IT administration, Networking, DevOps etc.. as in, is it a shrinking field or a growing one?
    - esseph 7mo ago
      Hard to tell, there's a lot of stagnation because of the larger market. Some argue more apps means more plumbers and problem solvers, but we'll see. Speculation: I think infra roles including on-prem are growing again, based on things I've seen.
jeffbee 7mo ago
I'll tell you what AI apparently can't replace and that is information graphics designers who are familiar with the exotic detail known as "contrast".
swozey 7mo ago
This (tech) career has proven to be so disappointing, and it's all the stuff around the actual work. I love working on computers. Started my career in the decade of offshoring and didn't think we'd have anything close to an "AI" taking our jobs before we potentially unionized or had a government that would protect its labor force from being replaced by literal robots. 2020-2022 felt like the usa tech ship was finally growing into something really great. All gone now. When I worked in devops I always worried that my job was automating away other engineers, it definitely had a "when will this come for me" feeling, because it really was, now the dev and ops are both getting automated away. This is my first time looking at HN in practically a year. Tech is just so uninteresting to me now. Nobody is hiring SDE/SWE/SREs except for the problem makers, like Anthropic, Meta, etc. Anthropic has pages and pages of $300k-$600k roles open right now. But do you go help the rest of your colleagues lose their jobs? I guess lets talk about kubernetes or something...
ks2048 7mo ago
Does the LLM understand or consider "rent seeking"? Lot's of high-paying jobs and entire industries seem to be propped-up by those same people who already have the power.
cman1444 7mo ago
Insights from a real estate perspective: Most of the jobs that have the highest AI exposure are office jobs. Clerks, assistants, secretaries, software developers, bookkeepers, customer service, lawyers, etc. There has been a narrative the past couple years that office real estate was recovering as companies returned to office. If AI job losses materialize, it looks like there may be a second hit to that sector.
jvanderbot 7mo ago
My takeaway here: 3.XT $ of US salaries are the TAM for AI companies. Apple, a very successful company, makes 300B/y revenue? (ish) ~10% is all you need to be Apple. And, it can work by taking all of 10% of the jobs and collecting the whole salary (the AI employee -- dubious proposition), or by taking 10% of everyone's salary and automating part of everyone's job (the AI "tool" -- much more plausible). If "part" being automated is >10%, we all win in the long run, every company gets productivity growth without cost growth, etc etc. If you add in data center costs, and multiple competing AI companies, and then expand the TAM to all white collar work worldwide, you can make everyone successful beyond their wildest dreams with a "20% of work for 20% of the cost" model. Again, how you distribute that 20% remains to be seen (20% new unemployment, or new 0% unemployment with "tools". I formalized my thoughts here: https://jodavaho.io/posts/ai-jobpocolypse.html https://jodavaho.io/posts/ai-jobpocolypse.html
- jjtheblunt 7mo ago
  "TAM" = ?
  - ianm218 7mo ago
    Total addressable market
  - deleted 7mo ago
    [deleted]
  - istjohn 7mo ago
    Total addressable market
  - ForHackernews 7mo ago
    Total addressable market. Frequently seen as a big fun number in pitch decks. "The TAM for our new Coca-Cola killer is $1.6T: all humans who imbibe liquids on a regular basis. You simply MUST invest."
    - Esophagus4 7mo ago
ks2048 7mo ago
Bet on high job-growth market: Security guard for data centers. Stand in front with a gun while mobs come to burn down the data center that took their jobs. (I think I'm half joking).
- linhns 7mo ago
  Still need rocket defense though.
- newsclues 7mo ago
  Oh please that will be done by drone and killer robots.
  - ArtificeAccount 7mo ago
    Drones took the jobs of angry mobs and the world will never be the same.
- deleted 7mo ago
  [deleted]
- booleanbetrayal 7mo ago
  Too late! 1: https://www.businessinsider.com/robot-dogs-quadruped-data-center-security-boston-dynamics-ghost-robotics-2026-3 https://www.businessinsider.com/robot-dogs-quadruped-data-ce...
- wiseowise 7mo ago
  > Stand in front with a gun while mobs come to burn down the data center that took their jobs. I doubt it'd be old hit-and-run, more like small scale Ukraine with drones filled with explosives.
jazzpush2 7mo ago
This is a surprisingly bad treemap, which is surprising given how easy it is to build a good one these days.
- dang 7mo ago
  "Please don't post shallow dismissals, especially of other people's work. A good critical comment teaches us something." https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
- empiricus 7mo ago
  Looks average to me. Maybe I don't know how the good ones look? Can you give some examples?
  - jazzpush2 7mo ago
    Treemaps are used to show hierarchical data. But here he doesn't even bother to show more than one-level of hierarchy. If I want to find, e.g. Police, it's near impossible, since I have to scan with my eyes (when, again, it's trivial to add another rectangle to show Law Enforcement or other). In addition, little work is done to separate the classes. He has probation officers in the same node as teachers, completely separate from law enforcement. Here's some much better examples: - https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/05/04/abortion-numbers-us-roe-opinion/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/05/04/abortion-nu... - https://flowingdata.com/2015/04/02/how-we-spend-our-money-a-breakdown/ https://flowingdata.com/2015/04/02/how-we-spend-our-money-a-...
jacquesm 7mo ago
> This is not a report, a paper, or a serious economic publication — it is a development tool for exploring BLS data visually. I guess that was to be expected...
quinndupont 7mo ago
Has some similar conclusions to my Job Quality-Adjusted Displacement Index https://github.com/quinndupont/JQADI https://github.com/quinndupont/JQADI
jameslk 7mo ago
> You are an expert analyst evaluating how exposed different occupations are to AI. You will be given a detailed description of an occupation from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. > Rate the occupation's overall AI Exposure on a scale from 0 to 10. Are LLMs good at scoring? In my experience, using an LLM for scoring things usually produces arbitrary results. I'm surprised to see Karpathy employ it
- ranyume 7mo ago
  No. LLMs aren't experts in subjects. They can answer things in a confident manner, but nobody optimized LLMs to perform good analysis yet.
- bwestergard 7mo ago
  Let's ask the LLM to score how good it would be at scoring jobs from LLM exposure... /s
- Imnimo 7mo ago
  The fact that the LLM appears to never assign an actual 0 or 10 makes me suspicious. Especially when the prompt includes explicit examples of what counts as a 10.
- kingstnap 7mo ago
  In my experience LLMs often have really solid insights in the thinking chains then vomit a nonsense score that doesn't make sense. Now I'm not sure if this is actually an LLM only thing. Because I think people probably do similar when you ask them to give a number to things without providing a concrete grading rubric...
CSMastermind 7mo ago
How are Top Executives 4% of all jobs?
- chasd00 7mo ago
  small business is the majority of employment. Think of an indi-coffee shop, the person taking your order may very well be the ceo technically. So there's a lot of "top executives".
dbgrman 7mo ago
Cool stuff. would be nice to have a color blind mode. I literally can't distinguish the red from green in this visualization.
- notlion 7mo ago
  Came here to mention this. I'm also Red/Green colorblind.
  - grigio 7mo ago
    There is also +/- % in the boxes
- RomanPushkin 7mo ago
  Created a temp hack for you: https://gist.github.com/ro31337/89b24edaec0a5bfbf73bc5abfbfb17ce https://gist.github.com/ro31337/89b24edaec0a5bfbf73bc5abfbfb... (don't forget to "allow pasting" in [chrome] console first)
- conductr 7mo ago
  Curious as someone that doesn't experience the issue but assumes that your system Accessibility settings, maybe high-contrast, would be useful instead of expecting individual sites to tailor their color palette... does that not work?
  - kieranmaine 7mo ago
    This comment prompted me to find out about colour filters for mac os. I enabled the red/green filter, which made it easier to see the differences on the site, however the downside is it affects a lot of other colors and images on other sites, so is not a feasible solution, for me at least.
    - conductr 7mo ago
      I toggle it on and off with a keyboard shortcut on a rare occasion colors are hard to read for me. Mostly use it on my phone actually (it's a triple click of the lock button on my iPhone). There are shortcuts on Windows and MacOS too. Doesn't seem like it would be too inconvenient for someone that actually suffers from color blindness or a sight issue, I would expect they'd run into the issue more commonly than me and would then know how to solve it for themselves. A lot more inconvenient for others to have to pick colors that satisfy all potential sight issues, which is primarily why I think it should be an OS solution rather than an individual creator's responsibility. It's not that I don't care about those with the sight issue, it's purely about who is responsible for creating a reasonable solution. And honestly, there's no way every creator is going to study accessibility and so it's just a never ending uphill battle. If you had a tool in your system already that could help, why wouldn't you use it?
RiverCrochet 7mo ago
It just comes up a black screen for me. Is this happening to anyone else?
- Osyris 7mo ago
  Do you have JavaScript disabled?
ryguz 7mo ago
[flagged]
hbarka 7mo ago
Data in, data out. Reminder that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has been…well, I can’t find the right word. https://apnews.com/article/trump-jobs-firing-f00e9bf96d0110519be9bf4f3ec89195 https://apnews.com/article/trump-jobs-firing-f00e9bf96d01105...
ravenstine 7mo ago
Wow, I had no idea the reason my peers and I can't find another position in less than 12 months is because the market for software developers is growing faster than average!
- dijit 7mo ago
  "Than average". There's lies, damned lies, and then: there's statistics. You have to counter the growth in jobs based on how many new people there are to take them, the location in which they are, and somewhat weirdly other jobs. Plenty of people feel so dejected at the current state of things that they leave computer work entirely making "openings" where there isn't actually any growth. Like all things that you try to understand: a single datapoint, when averaged, is like trying to calculate the heat from the sun by looking through a telescope at jupiter. It will give you a far-out tiny facet of data that only makes sense when coalesced with a hundred other ones.
- dfadsadsf 7mo ago
  Every year US absorbs 120k+ H1B+L1+OPT new visa holders. Considering there are 1.9M software engineers, market has to grow by 5% every year just to stand still. Add US graduates and you are talking about 10% growth required just to maintain employment. It's not realistic long term. Congress/president should pause H1B visas or hike up fee to 200-500K so that only truly exceptional talent are allowed in. Right now it's just give away to corporations that are laying off people by tens of thousands.
  - bequanna 7mo ago
    Are new H1Bs a thing anymore? Since the fee went up to $100k, I’m not aware of any companies still sponsoring hires who need a new H1B
    - Dig1t 7mo ago
      We have hit the cap for H1B's every year and we will always do so until we get rid of the program. Cheap labor will always be in demand. A 100k one-time fee is nothing for big employers. That's 25k/year for 4 years, and if you realize that H1B's can't easily leave their job it's obviously worth it. Compare hiring an H1B that is stuck at their job, to an American who can leave at any time. You can pay the H1B a lower wage to compensate for the fee you paid to get them into the role. 25k/year for 4 years is worth it for not only the reduced churn that comes with training a new person, but also you don't have to pay any of the incentives that come with getting a new employee into the role like sign-on bonuses, wage bumps, benefits etc.
aerhardt 7mo ago
Am I being obtuse, or is there no license? I'd like to use this on my website and also see if I can create variations for some of the major EU markets.
- jwelten 7mo ago
  No license visible as far as I can tell. For EU markets, Eurostat publishes comparable occupational data through ISCO-08 and the EU's Joint Research Centre has their own AI exposure methodology — so the data is there to build it.
black_13 7mo ago
[dead]
drnick1 7mo ago
So, become a lawyer? The profession is benefiting from AI (reducing costs), while gatekeeping and regulation limit entry and competition.
geor9e 7mo ago
He originally vibe coded this as AI Exposure, but deleted that one because people were misinterpreting it. Someone mirrored that one here https://joshkale.github.io/jobs/ https://joshkale.github.io/jobs/ . EDIT: D'oh, I now see Karpathy didn't delete it, he just made it into a "Digital AI Exposure" button.
scoreandseven 7mo ago
Another vibe coded visualization using this data I made a while back: https://jeffbaumes.github.io/jobs/ https://jeffbaumes.github.io/jobs/
butterlesstoast 7mo ago
What struck me as interesting was the bachelors degree jobs on average pay 8k more per year than a masters education job.
- spelk 7mo ago
  I would speculate that careers that require Master's degrees tend to be more saturated, and the result of that is qualification creep. Examples of this include teaching, social work, library sciences, etc.
  - Skunkleton 7mo ago
    It could also be that masters degrees concentrate in fields with lower compensation. Teachers are in high demand, but yet they still tend to have something beyond an undergrad.
williamsss 7mo ago
Interesting to see models on the list at 8/10 of exposure
globalnode 7mo ago
software developer <> computer programmer? apparently they're different jobs now?
seriocomic 7mo ago
Can't believe some one has already made a Australian version: https://0xtreme.github.io/aus-jobs/ https://0xtreme.github.io/aus-jobs/
- ktoo_ 7mo ago
  Is this coloured just on the AI exposure rating and not by the predicted growth at all? Because it paints a much red-er picture.
yieldcrv 7mo ago
the fun thing about being an AI researcher is seeing that all of the "we think AI won't affect these jobs" metrics are wrong deep down you all know something is just going to randomly get released one week in the near future that makes you go "well pack it up boys", or you just haven't been paying attention to clarify - just like the site says - I don't think those jobs are going away, maybe entry level will have the same issues as some industries are encountering, but ideas of relative immunity are completely wrong
nizsle 7mo ago
Love this. My only critique is that this perspective may lend credence to doomerism as the new categories of AI enabled jobs will lag in being captured by official statistics compared to the rate of established jobs being identified as under risk by ever more capable AI. That is, it will capture occupational risk better than occupational opportunities and feed a zero sum mindset view of the economy.
flw_0311 7mo ago
wow who knew this kind of data existed, but this is so granular

503 points by andygcook 7mo ago

zenon_paradox 7mo ago

[dead]

tencentshill 7mo ago

[flagged]

bigyikes 7mo ago
Does it matter if the author is a renowned expert in the field?
- paxys 7mo ago
  Expert in AI != expert in labor markets. All the "research" on the site comes from a single LLM prompt.
- orphea 7mo ago
  No. You can be an expert in one field, and have no idea what you're doing in another.
  - georgemcbay 7mo ago
    > You can be an expert in one field, and have no idea what you're doing in another. And for whatever reason a lot of people in startup/tech seem to have a huge Dunning-Kruger effect blind spot where they believe knowing a lot about one thing makes them an expert in everything. This used to just be funny, but when it started to intersect with politics it began to actively contribute to destroying society. It isn't funny anymore. (I don't think Karpathy's job data here is destroying society, this is a more generalized observation).
    - thejazzman 7mo ago
      It is wild that ya'll are hating on a website that visualizes data. That's like table stakes standard common practice for software engineers for decades. This is the equivalence of telling a Designer that can't create infographics on anything but principled design subjects -- or else they're out of line. Any research or data they might use isn't relevant because they're not exerts? lol?
      - paxys 7mo ago
        > a website that visualizes data It is a website that visualizes the output of an LLM prompt and passes it off as data. Big difference between the two.
      - anonymous_user9 7mo ago
        The problem is that the data it's visualizing is fake. The color grading is just an AI guessing how susceptible jobs are.
    - KellyCriterion 7mo ago
      THIS: > And for whatever reason a lot of people in startup/tech seem to have a huge Dunning-Kruger effect blind spot where they believe knowing a lot about one thing makes them an expert in everything. < Its especially(!) very common for people who made an exit and are now "wealthy" - sure they can afford to have an oppinion on everything, but very often they are just talking bullshit, thinking: "hey, I made it in field X, so why do not try field Y". Esp the "MBA crowd" is famous for this: For whatever reason they think they are more intelligent than ana engineer who filed a patent, e.g. (while most of the MBA bobos would fail just in acquiring all documents required for this) Other example: If you wrote once a book and it got traction, even if you are not a proven expert you will be invited to television shows etc. (and MORE than the people who are real experts with proven track record)
- danny_codes 7mo ago
  [dead]
- faangguyindia 7mo ago
  Show HN isn't about being expert.
throwaw12 7mo ago
The VIEW could be AI slop, but underlying CONTENT has some meaning. There is definitely impact on Software engineering jobs at the moment, interns/juniors are struggling to find jobs, companies are squeezing every bit of dev slack time to produce more stuff with AI.
- nerevarthelame 7mo ago
  > The VIEW could be AI slop, but underlying CONTENT has some meaning. There is definitely impact on Software engineering jobs at the moment, interns/juniors are struggling to find jobs Is that notion supported by this content? The BLS Outlook for most software engineering jobs is most in the "much faster than average" growth range.
  - throwaw12 7mo ago
    BLS outlook is based on historical trends and inertia, both could be true at the same time: * Yes software engineering jobs can grow - by increasing demand for custom software thanks to coding agents unlock * AI can impact it - by making software engineers LLM code approvers
    - nerevarthelame 7mo ago
      I'm not saying that your assessments are wrong. But you were talking about how valuable this content is, and I don't understand how the insight you claimed to get from the visualization ("There is definitely impact on Software engineering jobs at the moment, interns/juniors are struggling to find jobs") could at all be discernible from the visualization.
  - lotsofpulp 7mo ago
    BLS outlook is comically bad. For example, BLS had pharmacists' outlook as amazing all throughout the 2010s, while /r/pharmacy and sdnforums had a constant stream of posts complaining about declining pay and quality of life at work, all while the pharmacy business' profit margins and number of employers declined. What would be useful is tracking the change in minimum pay per hour from legitimate job listings, now that there are quite a few states that require posting pay ranges on job listings.
faangguyindia 7mo ago
Meanwhile my show HN didn't even get single upvote or any comment. Sigh...
- KellyCriterion 7mo ago
  Maybe you forgot AI, or blockchain or DeFi or all of these three? :-D /s

treyfitty 7mo ago

Data is coming from BLS. Their data lags the true state of affairs, and their growth projections are never reliable. Remember when they touted from 2000-2010 that Actuaries are the hottest growing field with the best forward looking outlook? BLS forward looking guidance means nothing when technology revolutionizes the nature of work.

c0d3rPrimate 7mo ago
[dead]
just_once 7mo ago
It wasn't even that long ago that Trump fired the BLS Commissioner and nominated someone that would "restore GREATNESS" to the BLS. Putting aside the slop facade place atop the data....why would we trust the data?
CGMthrowaway 7mo ago
What do you believe is the true state of affairs?
- elictronic 7mo ago
  With poor data it’s whatever you say it is.
  - emp17344 7mo ago
    How convenient!
the_arun 7mo ago
Are we assuming - the data is of high quality? If quality isn't good, it is as good as synthetic data.
exhumet 7mo ago
lol i always wondered how actuary ever crossed the radar of my partner in college and this must have been it. hey they just finished up their FCAS cert and they are riding quite high and quite comfy. but it is for sure a very small pool of people just due to the immense work needed to get that point.

paxys 7mo ago

> You are an expert analyst evaluating how exposed different occupations are to AI. You will be given a detailed description of an occupation from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. > Rate the occupation's overall AI Exposure on a scale from 0 to 10. The sad part isn't that this is low-effort AI slop, but that intelligent people and policy makers are going to see it and probably make important decisions impacting themselves and others based on these numbers.

jeffbee 7mo ago
This is 99.44% slop! You are completely correct. The "exposure" is based entirely on vibes and does not correspond to observable reality. Down here in the real world the very first sector that is being disrupted is manual farm labor. They are out here with machine vision and quadcopters picking fruit. But according to the prompt that produces the treemap, manual labor has an exposure rank of zero.

visarga 7mo ago

If AI produces surplus where does it go? Not talking about investment backed datacenter buildout and AI labs. Talking about the results of AI work... I think AI outcomes distribute to contexts where it is used, and produce a change in how we work, what work we take on. Competition takes care of taking those surpluses and investing them in new structure, which becomes load bearing and we can't do without it anymore. In the end it looks like we are treading water, just like it was when computers got 1M times faster in a couple of decades, but we felt very little improvement in earnings or reduction in work. Surplus becomes structure and the changed structure is something you can't function without. Like the cell and mitochondrion, after they merged they can't be apart, can't pay their costs individually anymore. Surplus is absorbed into the baseline cost.

lm28469 7mo ago
> If AI produces surplus where does it go? Not talking about investment backed datacenter buildout and AI labs. Talking about the results of AI work... The 1% pockets, this is where the vast majority of the extra productivity computers/internet/automation brought goes to for the last 50 years: https://www.epi.org/productivity-pay-gap/ https://www.epi.org/productivity-pay-gap/
- matthest 7mo ago
  The study doesn't say it went into the 1%'s pockets. It says it went to 2 places: 1) The salaries of corporate employees 2) Shareholders and capital owners Regarding number 2: "Shareholders" would include anyone who owns any stock at all, including a lot of middle class people with a simple S&P 500 ETF in their portfolio. And the increase in productivity allowed more people to become capital owners, AKA entrepreneurs. The explosion in software entrepreneurs, for example.
  - lm28469 7mo ago
    Then why are wealth inequalities exploding? Why are we just about to witness the first trillionaire? Because no matter what fairy tales you want to believe in your $20 "invested" in palantir won't make you a "shareholder" lmao

coldcity_again 7mo ago

>Software Developers +15% Yay! >Computer Programmers: -6% Oh no

Kerrick 7mo ago
Software Developers median pay according to BLS: $131,450 per year (Source: https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/software-developers.htm#tab-1 https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/...) Computer Programmers median pay according to BLS: $98,670 per year (Source: https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-programmers.htm#tab-1 https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/...) Software developers typically do the following: - Analyze users’ needs and then design and develop software to meet those needs Recommend software upgrades for customers’ existing programs and systems Design each piece of an application or system and plan how the pieces will work together - Create a variety of models and diagrams showing programmers the software code needed for an application - Ensure that a program continues to function normally through software maintenance and testing - Document every aspect of an application or system as a reference for future maintenance and upgrades (Source: https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/software-developers.htm#tab-2 https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/...) Computer programmers typically do the following: - Write programs in a variety of computer languages, such as C++ and Java - Update and expand existing programs - Test programs for errors and fix the faulty lines of computer code - Create, modify, and test code or scripts in software that simplifies development (Source: https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-programmers.htm#tab-2 https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/...)
- marcosdumay 7mo ago
  Still look the same to me.
  - shagie 7mo ago
    In older distinctions, there were Systems Developers and Application Developers and Computer Programmers. The distinction largely was around that "Computer Programmers took the specifications from Developers and implemented them." It feels like the intent was that "Programmers" were the ones doing the routine / lower skill tasks while the Developers were the ones that did the specification and architecture. Those got juggled around and largely people getting listed as "Computer Programmer" is going down as the company relists them as Software Developer. This is also part of the confusion of "Web Developer" which is also in there. It reflects what government thought management thought title and roles were some years ago. --- Edit: From days of old: https://web.archive.org/web/20110616142157/https://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes151132.htm https://web.archive.org/web/20110616142157/https://www.bls.g... 15-1132 Software Developers, Applications Develop, create, and modify general computer applications software or specialized utility programs. Analyze user needs and develop software solutions. Design software or customize software for client use with the aim of optimizing operational efficiency. May analyze and design databases within an application area, working individually or coordinating database development as part of a team. May supervise computer programmers. https://web.archive.org/web/20110531043521/http://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes151133.htm https://web.archive.org/web/20110531043521/http://www.bls.go... 15-1133 Software Developers, Systems Software Research, design, develop, and test operating systems-level software, compilers, and network distribution software for medical, industrial, military, communications, aerospace, business, scientific, and general computing applications. Set operational specifications and formulate and analyze software requirements. May design embedded systems software. Apply principles and techniques of computer science, engineering, and mathematical analysis. https://web.archive.org/web/20110925005933/http://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes151131.htm https://web.archive.org/web/20110925005933/http://www.bls.go... 15-1131 Computer Programmers Create, modify, and test the code, forms, and script that allow computer applications to run. Work from specifications drawn up by software developers or other individuals. May assist software developers by analyzing user needs and designing software solutions. May develop and write computer programs to store, locate, and retrieve specific documents, data, and information. Note that the specifying part of it isn't done by the programmers but the other roles. ... And for completness https://web.archive.org/web/20130624010204/http://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes151134.htm https://web.archive.org/web/20130624010204/http://www.bls.go... 15-1134 Web Developers Design, create, and modify Web sites. Analyze user needs to implement Web site content, graphics, performance, and capacity. May integrate Web sites with other computer applications. May convert written, graphic, audio, and video components to compatible Web formats by using software designed to facilitate the creation of Web and multimedia content. Excludes "Multimedia Artists and Animators" (27-1014).

vvoyer 7mo ago

I wish there would be a color blind friendly version of this. I have deuteranopia and can’t distinguish red from green in the page.

morley 7mo ago
Out of curiosity, what colors (or text treatments) do you personally prefer to confer "gain" and "loss"?
- ProfessorLayton 7mo ago
  It's not about preference, but about being able to see the differences in the first place, so any sufficiently contrast combination should work. If you turn on the color filters in accessibility settings in macOS you can see what the contrast could look like to a colorblind person.
- seanwilson 7mo ago
  For color deficiencies, different lightnesses are safe e.g. dark for loss and light for gain (could be dark reds for loss and light greens for gain, but don't mix the lightnesses). Other options are icons/shapes (like up/down arrows) or pattern fills (like stripes for loss). The general trick is you can rely on differences in color lightness, patterns, text and icons, but not differences in color hue. The page should be usable in grayscale.
- torgoguys 7mo ago
  I don't have any color discrimination deficiencies, but it is my understanding that for various types of signage, the move has been towards RED=bad/danger/etc, and BLUE (instead of green)=good/safe/etc.
- vvoyer 6mo ago
  You're not gonna believe it but NONE colors, my brain doesn't process colors because I know I cannot trust them to be correct. So I use shapes, numbers, arrows. Ask a colorblind person to explain how to win at candy crush and you'll be surprised (hint: we do not use colors, we use the shapes).

bwhiting2356 7mo ago

Are childcare and kindergarten teachers really exposed to AI? In theory, we could put a class of 30 children in front of chatbots with one supervisor. But I doubt we would chose to do this as a society. If office work becomes more automated, early childhood education is actually one area I'd expect to take up the Slack. I can't imagine a situation where we have millions of unemployed former office workers but we leave them idle and let our children waste away in front of screens.

kevinsync 7mo ago
Childcare and education requires a specific tolerance, mindset and passion to be effective though. I'd be curious how many previously-PMs or HR drones or email jockeys would be adequate (let alone thrive) in an environment where there are next-to-nonexistent budgets, and you're servicing literal babies and tiny children lol On second thought, client service folks might do extremely well here!
- downrightmike 7mo ago
  Con: kids
- KellyCriterion 7mo ago
  >specific tolerance, mindset and passion What you mention here is the exact thing why my earlier relationship went bust, because I didnt have any of these, then the children arrived :-X
linhns 7mo ago
I'd say yes. One teacher can use AI and be able to cover for more children. Thus less teachers are required.
- rwyinuse 7mo ago
  That could work in ideal world where children behave nicely, and are eager to learn. But in reality that's not the case. Especially in high school big part of teacher's job is keeping order and being the authority figure. Good luck replacing that with LLM.

calvinmorrison 7mo ago

I'd like to see this but - not sure if it is already - adjusted by total pay. so # employed * average salary. A -4.0% hit to cashiers may have less of an impact than -4.0% to lawyers or another category that is propping up the middle of the economy with spending.

technotony 7mo ago
It's the other way around. Cashier's spend their 4 percent, where's the lawyers probably save it. Though of course median salary for the two categories means 4 percent change is different in absolute dollars

zkmon 7mo ago

Mouse hover seems to be critical for this visualization. Not much useful in mobile.

kklisura 7mo ago
Rendered via canvas. Ugh.

observationist 7mo ago

It's kinda cool to see a whole lot of otherwise intelligent people who are so dogmatically and ideologically opposed to anything AI that they're going to willfully dismiss anything that AI produces regardless of utility. It's not great for them, but it's a definite advantage for people who are already in the mindset of distinguishing and discriminating information and sources on merit, instead of running an "AI bad" rubric as part of their filter. AI has already won. It's taking over. It might be a year or two, or five, or ten, but AI isn't slowing down, nobody is going to pause, and there's a whole shit ton of work people do that won't be meaningful or economically relevant in the very near term. Jevons paradox isn't relevant to cognitive surplus - you need a very different model to capture what's going to happen. It's time to surf or drown, because it doesn't look like any of the people in charge have the slightest clue about how to handle what's coming.

toomuchtodo 7mo ago
It is free for you to say this, because if you're wrong, there will be no consequences. Words are cheap. No different than various CEOs saying "AI will replace these workers" and now having to hire back those they laid off. Klarna, Salesforce, etc. Will be a great comment to reference in the future to capture the exuberance of the times. Companies Are Laying Off Workers Because of AI’s Potential - Not Its Performance - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47401368 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47401368 - March 2026 > Some companies that announced large headcount reductions because of AI have since revised their talent strategies or have faced public criticism. Klarna, for example, the Swedish fintech that offers “buy now, pay later” e-commerce loans, reduced its human workforce by 40% between December 2022 and December 2024 as it invested in AI. (The company used a hiring freeze and natural attrition, not layoffs to achieve this cut.) But in 2025 the company’s CEO told Bloomberg that Klarna was reinvesting in human support, explaining that prioritizing lower costs had also led to “lower quality.” A spokesman told HBR that the company has hired about 20 people to deal with customer service cases the AI assistant can’t handle, and that the use of AI “changes the profile of the human agents you need in the customer support role.” The language-learning company Duolingo announced that AI would be used to replace many human contractors, and it faced considerable criticism on social media. > For one, AI typically performs specific tasks and not entire jobs. As an example, Nobel laureate Geoffrey Hinton stated in 2016 that it was “completely obvious” that AI would outperform human radiologists within five years. A decade later, there is no evidence that a single radiologist has lost a job to AI—in part because radiologists perform many tasks other than reading scan images. Indeed, there is a substantial shortage of them. The 'AI-Washing' of Job Cuts Is Corrosive and Confusing - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47401499 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47401499 - March 2026 * Companies are "AI washing" layoffs, blaming artificial intelligence for workforce reductions they would have made anyway, according to OpenAI CEO Sam Altman. * A Resume.org survey found that 59% of hiring managers say they emphasize AI's role in layoffs because it "is viewed more favorably by stakeholders than saying layoffs or hiring freezes are driven by financial constraints". * The stated reason for the layoff matters more than the fact of the layoff, and framing cuts as proactive restructuring around AI can result in a valuation boost, even if the technology doesn't actually work. > The AI premium isn’t even reliable. By late 2025, Goldman Sachs group Inc. found that investors were actually punishing AI-attributed layoffs, with shares falling an average of 2%. The analysts concluded that investors simply didn’t believe the companies. But Block’s surge shows the incentive hasn’t vanished. It’s just a lottery instead of a sure thing. And executives keep buying tickets. > The broader data confirms the gap between narrative and reality. A National Bureau of Economic Research study published in February surveyed thousands of C-suite executives across the US, UK, Germany and Australia. Almost 90% said AI had zero impact on employment over the past three years. Challenger, Gray & Christmas tracked 1.2 million layoffs in 2025, and AI was cited in fewer than 55,000 of them. That’s 4.5%. Plain old “market and economic conditions” accounted for four times as many. So! Sophisticated capital market participants don't believe this; why do people here? AI is making CEOs delusional [video] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q6nem-F8AG8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q6nem-F8AG8 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect

rib3ye 7mo ago

Cool site and Andrej is the man. But the BLS data... > Taxi Drivers, Shuttle Drivers, and Chauffeurs > Overall employment of taxi drivers, shuttle drivers, and chauffeurs is projected to grow 9 percent from 2024 to 2034, much faster than the average for all occupations. ...word?

akramachamarei 7mo ago
I just started reading Snow Crash; cool name!

nsvd2 7mo ago

Interestingly, it seems from these statistics the median wage for individuals with a Master's is lower than a Bachelor's. I wonder if that's because of immigrants who pursue higher education for visa reasons skewing the data.

lotsofpulp 7mo ago
Other possible reason could be many or most Masters degrees not conferring additional pricing power, and those people’s Bachelors degrees also confer lower pricing power. Edit: Another possible reason that Masters degrees were less common in the past, so the Bachelors pay statistics skew towards people with more work experience in their higher earning years, whereas the Masters pay statistics skew towards younger people with less work experience.
post-it 7mo ago
Anecdotally, many people get a bachelor's degree to check a box for job applications, whereas many people get a master's degree because they love the field and/or are afraid to leave school. My friends and I who have a bachelor's degree in CS make more money than my friends who have or are working towards master's degrees in CS, because the former are working in the private sector and the latter are in academia making peanuts.
mothballed 7mo ago
Masters seems to be a common theme in a few lower paying expansive fields like social work and education. I don't think that someone with a masters is typically making less in the same field all else equal.

holmesworcester 7mo ago

It's wild that there are as many jobs in the category "Top Executives" as in the category "Retail Sales Worker". This makes sense given both automation and the US's role in the global economy, but it runs somewhat contrary to standard ideas of class and inequality.

MeetingsBrowser 7mo ago
> it runs somewhat contrary to standard ideas of class and inequality. Can you elaborate?
- pc86 7mo ago
  When people think "top executives" they think of a very, very small group of people making tens of millions of dollars a year or much more. The reality is that that's not the case.
nitwit005 7mo ago
I took one glance at the chart and decided the results were impossible because of that. Apparently "top executive" median pay is $105,350 per year: https://www.bls.gov/ooh/management/top-executives.htm https://www.bls.gov/ooh/management/top-executives.htm
- SpicyLemonZest 7mo ago
  Sounds plausible? Even a company with 100 employees and few growth prospects is likely to have a couple of executives, and most companies are small.
  - andrewmutz 7mo ago
    If you own a painting company with three employees you are a CEO and fall in the top executives category. You may or may not make 100k a year.
- next_xibalba 7mo ago

aaroninsf 7mo ago

Almost everyone I know is limited to two areas, and of those, 90% are in one corner.

sublinear 7mo ago

I enjoy that this visualization directly contradicts the mainstream narrative that white collar work is being replaced by blue collar work.

deleted 7mo ago

[deleted]

alexfromapex 7mo ago

It looks like this is using 2024 data so quite old?

ncr100 7mo ago

Nifty! Needs - [utility] add filter by keyword / substring match, e.g majority of visualized reports are un-labeled requiring hovering with a mouse pointer - [improve discovery] add sort by demographic / pop impact, e.g largest block is 7m ('Hand laborers and movers') and default sorted to bottom-left

givemeethekeys 7mo ago

Question for those in the know: are IT jobs being affected the same as software engineering jobs with all the consolidation and AI? Whats the outlook like? Thank you!

quietsegfault 7mo ago
Like, IT helpdesk? Yes. Almost all of the tickets I create as a "knowledge worker" to my enterprise helpdesk are sloved by an AI assistant - group ownership, adding me to an app, etc.
- givemeethekeys 7mo ago
  I meant more generally - IT administration, Networking, DevOps etc.. as in, is it a shrinking field or a growing one?
  - esseph 7mo ago
    Hard to tell, there's a lot of stagnation because of the larger market. Some argue more apps means more plumbers and problem solvers, but we'll see. Speculation: I think infra roles including on-prem are growing again, based on things I've seen.

jeffbee 7mo ago

I'll tell you what AI apparently can't replace and that is information graphics designers who are familiar with the exotic detail known as "contrast".

swozey 7mo ago

This (tech) career has proven to be so disappointing, and it's all the stuff around the actual work. I love working on computers. Started my career in the decade of offshoring and didn't think we'd have anything close to an "AI" taking our jobs before we potentially unionized or had a government that would protect its labor force from being replaced by literal robots. 2020-2022 felt like the usa tech ship was finally growing into something really great. All gone now. When I worked in devops I always worried that my job was automating away other engineers, it definitely had a "when will this come for me" feeling, because it really was, now the dev and ops are both getting automated away. This is my first time looking at HN in practically a year. Tech is just so uninteresting to me now. Nobody is hiring SDE/SWE/SREs except for the problem makers, like Anthropic, Meta, etc. Anthropic has pages and pages of $300k-$600k roles open right now. But do you go help the rest of your colleagues lose their jobs? I guess lets talk about kubernetes or something...

ks2048 7mo ago

Does the LLM understand or consider "rent seeking"? Lot's of high-paying jobs and entire industries seem to be propped-up by those same people who already have the power.

cman1444 7mo ago

Insights from a real estate perspective: Most of the jobs that have the highest AI exposure are office jobs. Clerks, assistants, secretaries, software developers, bookkeepers, customer service, lawyers, etc. There has been a narrative the past couple years that office real estate was recovering as companies returned to office. If AI job losses materialize, it looks like there may be a second hit to that sector.

jvanderbot 7mo ago

My takeaway here: 3.XT $ of US salaries are the TAM for AI companies. Apple, a very successful company, makes 300B/y revenue? (ish) ~10% is all you need to be Apple. And, it can work by taking all of 10% of the jobs and collecting the whole salary (the AI employee -- dubious proposition), or by taking 10% of everyone's salary and automating part of everyone's job (the AI "tool" -- much more plausible). If "part" being automated is >10%, we all win in the long run, every company gets productivity growth without cost growth, etc etc. If you add in data center costs, and multiple competing AI companies, and then expand the TAM to all white collar work worldwide, you can make everyone successful beyond their wildest dreams with a "20% of work for 20% of the cost" model. Again, how you distribute that 20% remains to be seen (20% new unemployment, or new 0% unemployment with "tools". I formalized my thoughts here: https://jodavaho.io/posts/ai-jobpocolypse.html https://jodavaho.io/posts/ai-jobpocolypse.html

jjtheblunt 7mo ago
"TAM" = ?
- ianm218 7mo ago
  Total addressable market
- deleted 7mo ago
  [deleted]
- istjohn 7mo ago
  Total addressable market
- ForHackernews 7mo ago
  Total addressable market. Frequently seen as a big fun number in pitch decks. "The TAM for our new Coca-Cola killer is $1.6T: all humans who imbibe liquids on a regular basis. You simply MUST invest."
  - Esophagus4 7mo ago

ks2048 7mo ago

Bet on high job-growth market: Security guard for data centers. Stand in front with a gun while mobs come to burn down the data center that took their jobs. (I think I'm half joking).

linhns 7mo ago
Still need rocket defense though.
newsclues 7mo ago
Oh please that will be done by drone and killer robots.
- ArtificeAccount 7mo ago
  Drones took the jobs of angry mobs and the world will never be the same.
deleted 7mo ago
[deleted]
booleanbetrayal 7mo ago
Too late! 1: https://www.businessinsider.com/robot-dogs-quadruped-data-center-security-boston-dynamics-ghost-robotics-2026-3 https://www.businessinsider.com/robot-dogs-quadruped-data-ce...
wiseowise 7mo ago
> Stand in front with a gun while mobs come to burn down the data center that took their jobs. I doubt it'd be old hit-and-run, more like small scale Ukraine with drones filled with explosives.

jazzpush2 7mo ago

This is a surprisingly bad treemap, which is surprising given how easy it is to build a good one these days.

dang 7mo ago
"Please don't post shallow dismissals, especially of other people's work. A good critical comment teaches us something." https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
empiricus 7mo ago
Looks average to me. Maybe I don't know how the good ones look? Can you give some examples?
- jazzpush2 7mo ago
  Treemaps are used to show hierarchical data. But here he doesn't even bother to show more than one-level of hierarchy. If I want to find, e.g. Police, it's near impossible, since I have to scan with my eyes (when, again, it's trivial to add another rectangle to show Law Enforcement or other). In addition, little work is done to separate the classes. He has probation officers in the same node as teachers, completely separate from law enforcement. Here's some much better examples: - https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/05/04/abortion-numbers-us-roe-opinion/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/05/04/abortion-nu... - https://flowingdata.com/2015/04/02/how-we-spend-our-money-a-breakdown/ https://flowingdata.com/2015/04/02/how-we-spend-our-money-a-...

jacquesm 7mo ago

> This is not a report, a paper, or a serious economic publication — it is a development tool for exploring BLS data visually. I guess that was to be expected...

quinndupont 7mo ago

Has some similar conclusions to my Job Quality-Adjusted Displacement Index https://github.com/quinndupont/JQADI https://github.com/quinndupont/JQADI

jameslk 7mo ago

> You are an expert analyst evaluating how exposed different occupations are to AI. You will be given a detailed description of an occupation from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. > Rate the occupation's overall AI Exposure on a scale from 0 to 10. Are LLMs good at scoring? In my experience, using an LLM for scoring things usually produces arbitrary results. I'm surprised to see Karpathy employ it

ranyume 7mo ago
No. LLMs aren't experts in subjects. They can answer things in a confident manner, but nobody optimized LLMs to perform good analysis yet.
bwestergard 7mo ago
Let's ask the LLM to score how good it would be at scoring jobs from LLM exposure... /s
Imnimo 7mo ago
The fact that the LLM appears to never assign an actual 0 or 10 makes me suspicious. Especially when the prompt includes explicit examples of what counts as a 10.
kingstnap 7mo ago
In my experience LLMs often have really solid insights in the thinking chains then vomit a nonsense score that doesn't make sense. Now I'm not sure if this is actually an LLM only thing. Because I think people probably do similar when you ask them to give a number to things without providing a concrete grading rubric...

CSMastermind 7mo ago

How are Top Executives 4% of all jobs?

chasd00 7mo ago
small business is the majority of employment. Think of an indi-coffee shop, the person taking your order may very well be the ceo technically. So there's a lot of "top executives".

dbgrman 7mo ago

Cool stuff. would be nice to have a color blind mode. I literally can't distinguish the red from green in this visualization.

notlion 7mo ago
Came here to mention this. I'm also Red/Green colorblind.
- grigio 7mo ago
  There is also +/- % in the boxes
RomanPushkin 7mo ago
Created a temp hack for you: https://gist.github.com/ro31337/89b24edaec0a5bfbf73bc5abfbfb17ce https://gist.github.com/ro31337/89b24edaec0a5bfbf73bc5abfbfb... (don't forget to "allow pasting" in [chrome] console first)
conductr 7mo ago
Curious as someone that doesn't experience the issue but assumes that your system Accessibility settings, maybe high-contrast, would be useful instead of expecting individual sites to tailor their color palette... does that not work?
- kieranmaine 7mo ago
  This comment prompted me to find out about colour filters for mac os. I enabled the red/green filter, which made it easier to see the differences on the site, however the downside is it affects a lot of other colors and images on other sites, so is not a feasible solution, for me at least.
  - conductr 7mo ago
    I toggle it on and off with a keyboard shortcut on a rare occasion colors are hard to read for me. Mostly use it on my phone actually (it's a triple click of the lock button on my iPhone). There are shortcuts on Windows and MacOS too. Doesn't seem like it would be too inconvenient for someone that actually suffers from color blindness or a sight issue, I would expect they'd run into the issue more commonly than me and would then know how to solve it for themselves. A lot more inconvenient for others to have to pick colors that satisfy all potential sight issues, which is primarily why I think it should be an OS solution rather than an individual creator's responsibility. It's not that I don't care about those with the sight issue, it's purely about who is responsible for creating a reasonable solution. And honestly, there's no way every creator is going to study accessibility and so it's just a never ending uphill battle. If you had a tool in your system already that could help, why wouldn't you use it?

RiverCrochet 7mo ago

It just comes up a black screen for me. Is this happening to anyone else?

Osyris 7mo ago
Do you have JavaScript disabled?

ryguz 7mo ago

[flagged]

hbarka 7mo ago

Data in, data out. Reminder that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has been…well, I can’t find the right word. https://apnews.com/article/trump-jobs-firing-f00e9bf96d0110519be9bf4f3ec89195 https://apnews.com/article/trump-jobs-firing-f00e9bf96d01105...

ravenstine 7mo ago

Wow, I had no idea the reason my peers and I can't find another position in less than 12 months is because the market for software developers is growing faster than average!

dijit 7mo ago
"Than average". There's lies, damned lies, and then: there's statistics. You have to counter the growth in jobs based on how many new people there are to take them, the location in which they are, and somewhat weirdly other jobs. Plenty of people feel so dejected at the current state of things that they leave computer work entirely making "openings" where there isn't actually any growth. Like all things that you try to understand: a single datapoint, when averaged, is like trying to calculate the heat from the sun by looking through a telescope at jupiter. It will give you a far-out tiny facet of data that only makes sense when coalesced with a hundred other ones.
dfadsadsf 7mo ago
Every year US absorbs 120k+ H1B+L1+OPT new visa holders. Considering there are 1.9M software engineers, market has to grow by 5% every year just to stand still. Add US graduates and you are talking about 10% growth required just to maintain employment. It's not realistic long term. Congress/president should pause H1B visas or hike up fee to 200-500K so that only truly exceptional talent are allowed in. Right now it's just give away to corporations that are laying off people by tens of thousands.
- bequanna 7mo ago
  Are new H1Bs a thing anymore? Since the fee went up to $100k, I’m not aware of any companies still sponsoring hires who need a new H1B
  - Dig1t 7mo ago
    We have hit the cap for H1B's every year and we will always do so until we get rid of the program. Cheap labor will always be in demand. A 100k one-time fee is nothing for big employers. That's 25k/year for 4 years, and if you realize that H1B's can't easily leave their job it's obviously worth it. Compare hiring an H1B that is stuck at their job, to an American who can leave at any time. You can pay the H1B a lower wage to compensate for the fee you paid to get them into the role. 25k/year for 4 years is worth it for not only the reduced churn that comes with training a new person, but also you don't have to pay any of the incentives that come with getting a new employee into the role like sign-on bonuses, wage bumps, benefits etc.

aerhardt 7mo ago

Am I being obtuse, or is there no license? I'd like to use this on my website and also see if I can create variations for some of the major EU markets.

jwelten 7mo ago
No license visible as far as I can tell. For EU markets, Eurostat publishes comparable occupational data through ISCO-08 and the EU's Joint Research Centre has their own AI exposure methodology — so the data is there to build it.

black_13 7mo ago

[dead]

drnick1 7mo ago

So, become a lawyer? The profession is benefiting from AI (reducing costs), while gatekeeping and regulation limit entry and competition.

geor9e 7mo ago

He originally vibe coded this as AI Exposure, but deleted that one because people were misinterpreting it. Someone mirrored that one here https://joshkale.github.io/jobs/ https://joshkale.github.io/jobs/ . EDIT: D'oh, I now see Karpathy didn't delete it, he just made it into a "Digital AI Exposure" button.

scoreandseven 7mo ago

Another vibe coded visualization using this data I made a while back: https://jeffbaumes.github.io/jobs/ https://jeffbaumes.github.io/jobs/

butterlesstoast 7mo ago

What struck me as interesting was the bachelors degree jobs on average pay 8k more per year than a masters education job.

spelk 7mo ago
I would speculate that careers that require Master's degrees tend to be more saturated, and the result of that is qualification creep. Examples of this include teaching, social work, library sciences, etc.
- Skunkleton 7mo ago
  It could also be that masters degrees concentrate in fields with lower compensation. Teachers are in high demand, but yet they still tend to have something beyond an undergrad.

williamsss 7mo ago

Interesting to see models on the list at 8/10 of exposure

globalnode 7mo ago

software developer <> computer programmer? apparently they're different jobs now?

seriocomic 7mo ago

Can't believe some one has already made a Australian version: https://0xtreme.github.io/aus-jobs/ https://0xtreme.github.io/aus-jobs/

ktoo_ 7mo ago
Is this coloured just on the AI exposure rating and not by the predicted growth at all? Because it paints a much red-er picture.

yieldcrv 7mo ago

the fun thing about being an AI researcher is seeing that all of the "we think AI won't affect these jobs" metrics are wrong deep down you all know something is just going to randomly get released one week in the near future that makes you go "well pack it up boys", or you just haven't been paying attention to clarify - just like the site says - I don't think those jobs are going away, maybe entry level will have the same issues as some industries are encountering, but ideas of relative immunity are completely wrong

nizsle 7mo ago

Love this. My only critique is that this perspective may lend credence to doomerism as the new categories of AI enabled jobs will lag in being captured by official statistics compared to the rate of established jobs being identified as under risk by ever more capable AI. That is, it will capture occupational risk better than occupational opportunities and feed a zero sum mindset view of the economy.

flw_0311 7mo ago

wow who knew this kind of data existed, but this is so granular