8 ms·
War prediction markets are a national-security threat
- actionfromafar 8mo agoThese are scraps, so far. Now, what could you do if you had access to both markets and the Executive? About 4 billions, it would seem.
- Uhhrrr 8mo agoPlacing a bet based on insider national security information should be regarded as leaking. But the markets aren't the problem here.
- jimkleiber 8mo agoWell markets give a huge financial incentive for it. Before you had to get paid a bribe for an intelligence agent. Now you can just "legitimately" bet on a market. It's a LOT easier and more spread out, I imagine.
- spiderice 8mo agoThe existence of banks gives a huge financial incentive to rob them. That doesn't mean we should get rid of banks. It means we should create a huge disincentive to rob them (which we do). Same thing needs to happen to people using national intelligence secrets in prediction markets.
- thephyber 8mo agoThat requires active participation in regulation and enforcement. If anything, this administration is moving the other direction when it comes to betting markets, crypto, investments, etc. What you are saying is logical for how enforcement should happen, but it isn’t happening that way.
- jimkleiber 8mo agoBanks are about saving money and reducing risk. Arguably when they got into high risk investments to make high reward is what contributed to the 2008 recession. Not sure if banks are the best example of proving the country is not headed towards high risk gambling.
- dmantis 8mo agoOn the other hand, it provides the whole world with the information and not just some spy agency. Isn't that more fair system? And people dying in question is army, professional murderers for hire themselves, not a big loss.
- _vertigo 8mo agoYou couldn’t design a better system for incentivizing leaks if you were trying. Hell, the CEO literally said as much. Not sure how you can conclude the markets aren’t the problem.
- abustamam 8mo agoYeah I had to reread that part... I was like, no way the CEO of Polymarket publicly said on record that it incentivizes leaks. Had to check to make sure I wasn't on the onion.
- thephyber 8mo agoThe CFTC has been defunded and dismantled. The industries it regulated don’t even bother to put on a mask anymore.
- Dylan16807 8mo agoHe was talking about companies at that part of the interview, and getting company info leaked to the market is generally a good thing.
- abustamam 8mo agoWow, it took some time for me to dig the interview out(0). I think it's stupid that Atlantic did not link to it, and that they misrepresented the context. I agree that company info being leaked is whatever. No one is hurt by knowing that Apple is working on a foldable phone; maybe an exec loses his million dollar bonus and can't upgrade his yacht this year, and the market can operate off of that knowledge. But the flip side is that there's no way to distinguish between leaked company info and leaked government info, and up until this era of history, there was rarely financial incentive for anyone to leak govt info, and even if there were, it was almost impossible to do so completely anonymously. I'm not necessarily agreeing with the article. Who knows if that actually happened? But the incentives make it more plausible than ever. (0) https://www.youtube.com/live/t647EWQst5A?si=TPNx7RbxWvn9wVdn https://www.youtube.com/live/t647EWQst5A?si=TPNx7RbxWvn9wVdn
- w4yai 8mo agoLet's make bets on "xxxx leaked yyyy info", so people will be incentived to discover/denounce who cheated.
- deleted 8mo ago[deleted]
- Footnote7341 8mo agoIsnt this silly when you can calculate the chance of war in Iran by oil futures instead. Prediction markets are just explicit markers of information that is already being traded on in 100 different ways.
- jimkleiber 8mo agoYeah but less direct incentive than "If my friends (and I) bet money on X, and I do X, they (and I) make money."
- metalcrow 8mo agoNot by much, plus the volume is much lower on prediction markets, so people with large pockets who happen to be in power and are capable of doing big moves like this would make more money on the oil futures.
- pinkmuffinere 8mo agoI wonder if there's profit to be made by looking at the futures markets, figuring out the implied probability distribution of different events, and then buying prediction markets when there's a mis-match? There sure are many inexperienced players entering predictions markets, just waiting to be fleeced...
- metalcrow 8mo agoThat's one of the intended uses of prediction markets! Although much like cryptocurrency arbitrage i assume the margins are small and will quickly be eaten by bigger fish.
- pinkmuffinere 8mo agoHuh interesting. I suppose markets with low volume would tend to be the most profitable opportunities in that case? But then maybe they’re low volume because it’s hard to say what will happen…
- WalterGR 8mo agoRelated: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47211476 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47211476 - “Allegations of insider trading over prediction-market bets tied to Iran conflict” (morningstar.com) 97 points | 5 days ago | 55 comments Also from The Atlantic about prediction markets: https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/2026/03/central-lie-prediction-markets/686250/ https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/2026/03/central-lie-p... - “A Technology for a Low-Trust Society”
- behole 8mo agoJust another grift for orange man and his posse. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/anonymous-polymarket-accounts-won-12-million-on-trump-s-iran-strikes-in-suspicious-bets/ar-AA1Xn4gh https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/anonymous-polymarket...
- quakeguy 8mo agoI always wonder about when there is a cutoff about the grift, i mean there has to be a point when enough is enough. Who cares if its 4 or 5 billions in the end, thats more money one could reasonably spend in a lifetime. What drives this greed?
- _bypa 8mo agoPower. People who want power need status, and money is the ultimate symbol. They can never have enough power because of their dark triad personalities.
- ivell 8mo agoIf I understand Trump, he wants to be the richest man in the world. It is another matter if can achieve that. But his ego would definitely want that.
- AnimalMuppet 8mo agoThe idea of winning. They have to keep winning because the idea of losing threatens their identity, which is in being a winner.
- mcs5280 8mo agoIt's 100% legal if you're in the inside circle
- rubyfan 8mo agoJust because it’s not enforced doesn’t make it legal.
- A_D_E_P_T 8mo agoBetting was once a vice overseen by the mob -- and those addicted to it were rightly viewed as pathetic figures, akin to serious alcoholics. Now betting pervades nearly every aspect of Anglosphere life. This transformation, which has taken place over the past 100 years but has really picked up steam over the last 15, has not been an improvement. It's net negative for society, and the evidence on this is very clear. Prediction markets are the worst and most insidious manifestation of this phenomenon. They reward insider trading and may also induce people to seek outcomes that are undesirable for society at large. (e.g. in tfa.) There's literally no way this experiment ends well -- which is to say that there's no way this ends in "markets" that benefit and enlighten the common man. I look forward to the pendulum swinging the other way. Even with such a broken political system, it might.
- givemeethekeys 8mo agoYet another side effect of being automated out of a purposeful life.
- wutwutwat 8mo agoThe purpose of life is work?
- School-Cotton 8mo agoPretty much, yeah. A lot of people don't just want to consume, they derive self-esteem from doing something that is useful for others.
- denkmoon 8mo agoPurposeful work. Like improving your community or living space. Decidedly not performative rituals at the widget making factory to make some rich guy even richer.
- WarOnPrivacy 8mo agohttps://archive.fo/p1aDH https://archive.fo/p1aDH
- LucasGenoud 8mo agoI think it's safe to say that beside national security risks. Allowing unrestricted betting on pretty much anything in the world is just not something we should have...
- rvz 8mo agoThird order effect on post-AGI economics when those with expensive mortgages lose their jobs to AGI, can no-longer afford them, burn through their savings and get wiped out in a financial market crash because most of them used their RSUs to get mortgages for their homes, which now does not make any sense today. Then gambling on prediction markets, stocks, crypto etc will be the new normal. This is post-AGI.
- aaron695 8mo ago[dead]
- pinkmuffinere 8mo ago> Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was not, it’s safe to assume, a devoted Polymarket user. If he had been, the Iranian leader might still be alive. Hours before Khamenei’s compound in Tehran was reduced to rubble last week, an account under the username “magamyman” bet about $20,000 that the supreme leader would no longer be in power by the end of March. I know this is more for the drama than an actual claim, but it made me wonder -- is this bet a remarkable occurence in the data, or just one trade in a sea of similar trades? _Would_ somebody have been able to guess it? I looked for the original market[0], and am surprised by two things: 1. There was lots of activity around that value when the order was placed, so I don't think the trade would have alerted anyone [1]. 2. Polymarket lists the trade as happening _19 days ago_, Feb 16! I don't understand why polymarket says it happened feb 16, when all the news I've seen reports it happening just before the strikes. I'm guessing there's a bug in the way polymarket displays past trades? Note that if polymarket is displaying the history of trades incorrectly, my claim #1 may not hold. E̶d̶i̶t̶:̶ ̶M̶a̶g̶a̶m̶y̶m̶a̶n̶'̶s̶ ̶g̶e̶n̶e̶r̶a̶l̶ ̶h̶i̶s̶t̶o̶r̶y̶ ̶o̶n̶ ̶p̶o̶l̶y̶m̶a̶r̶k̶e̶t̶ ̶i̶s̶ ̶a̶l̶s̶o̶ ̶r̶e̶a̶l̶l̶y̶ ̶s̶u̶r̶p̶r̶i̶s̶i̶n̶g̶.̶ ̶L̶o̶o̶k̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶a̶t̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶c̶l̶o̶s̶e̶d̶ ̶p̶o̶s̶i̶t̶i̶o̶n̶s̶,̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶y̶ ̶j̶u̶s̶t̶ ̶_̶d̶o̶n̶'̶t̶_̶ ̶s̶e̶e̶m̶ ̶t̶o̶ ̶l̶o̶s̶e̶[̶2̶]̶.̶ ̶A̶m̶ ̶I̶ ̶m̶i̶s̶r̶e̶a̶d̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶t̶h̶i̶s̶ ̶d̶a̶t̶a̶?̶ ̶T̶h̶e̶y̶ ̶d̶o̶ ̶w̶a̶g̶e̶r̶ ̶a̶ ̶l̶o̶t̶ ̶a̶b̶o̶u̶t̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶m̶i̶d̶d̶l̶e̶ ̶e̶a̶s̶t̶,̶ ̶b̶u̶t̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶y̶ ̶_̶a̶r̶e̶n̶'̶t̶_̶ ̶e̶x̶c̶l̶u̶s̶i̶v̶e̶l̶y̶ ̶w̶a̶g̶e̶r̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶o̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶a̶t̶;̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶y̶ ̶w̶a̶g̶e̶r̶ ̶o̶n̶ ̶p̶l̶e̶n̶t̶y̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶o̶t̶h̶e̶r̶ ̶s̶t̶u̶f̶f̶ ̶t̶o̶o̶ ̶(̶c̶h̶a̶n̶g̶e̶ ̶i̶n̶ ̶P̶M̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶T̶h̶a̶i̶l̶a̶n̶d̶,̶ ̶B̶i̶t̶c̶o̶i̶n̶ ̶p̶r̶i̶c̶e̶s̶ ̶a̶t̶ ̶m̶u̶l̶t̶i̶p̶l̶e̶ ̶d̶a̶t̶e̶s̶,̶ ̶S̶P̶5̶0̶0̶ ̶g̶o̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶u̶p̶ ̶o̶r̶ ̶d̶o̶w̶n̶,̶ ̶w̶i̶n̶n̶e̶r̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶W̶i̶m̶b̶l̶e̶d̶o̶n̶,̶ ̶p̶r̶o̶b̶a̶b̶l̶y̶ ̶o̶t̶h̶e̶r̶s̶)̶.̶ ̶T̶h̶e̶ ̶f̶a̶c̶t̶ ̶t̶h̶a̶t̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶y̶ ̶g̶e̶t̶ ̶a̶l̶l̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶s̶e̶ ̶r̶i̶g̶h̶t̶ ̶m̶a̶k̶e̶s̶ ̶m̶e̶ ̶w̶o̶n̶d̶e̶r̶ ̶i̶f̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶y̶ ̶r̶e̶a̶l̶l̶y̶ ̶a̶r̶e̶ ̶j̶u̶s̶t̶ ̶a̶ ̶g̶r̶e̶a̶t̶ ̶p̶r̶e̶d̶i̶c̶t̶o̶r̶.̶ I was reading the trades ordered by profit, so only the successes were showing. Order by date to see Magamyman's failures. Thanks @stevenwaterman for catching this. [0] https://polymarket.com/event/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-by-march-31/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-by-march-31 https://polymarket.com/event/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-... [1] https://snipboard.io/DP1MWK.jpg https://snipboard.io/DP1MWK.jpg [2] https://polymarket.com/profile/%40Magamyman https://polymarket.com/profile/%40Magamyman
- gruez 8mo ago
- Analemma_ 8mo agoI said this in another thread, but if you were to ask me "what is the biggest 180 you've made on some political or policy question in the last decade", it would for sure be prediction markets. I used to be all-in on the idea after reading Caplan, Taleb etc.: make people have "skin in the game" on a grand scale and we can have better predictions and better policy! But what a disaster they've been in practice: it's just a new avenue for government corruption and ruining your life with gambling. And now apparently a nat-sec problem as well.
- Smar 8mo agoMaybe the employees are only copying their leaders.
- andai 8mo ago> The day before, 150 users bet at least $1,000 that the United States would strike Iran within the next 24 hours Yeah, I heard the same thing at the same time from several friends. And I'm not talking top brass, so it must have been pretty obvious at that point.
- brandall10 8mo agoThere were definite geopolitical signals of an impending conflict - ie. warships moving into the region, Iran increasing oil exports just days before the attack. I guess what might be more interesting is how many people bet $1000 the day before that, and the day before that. That would be more helpful to determine what is noise from well-informed outsiders vs. insiders.
- pinkmuffinere 8mo ago> There were definite geopolitical signals of an impending conflict - ie. warships moving into the region, Iran increasing oil exports just days before the attack. As a noob to this area, how would [Iran increasing oil exports] indicate [higher chance of impending conflict]? Is the idea that Iran exported more oil to raise some funds in expectation of the conflict? Surely if Iran expected conflict it would have done more than just increase oil exports?
- brandall10 8mo agoIt could signal potential disruption to the Strait of Hormuz.
- AnimalMuppet 8mo agoAnd what were the odds? That is, if it's 20:1, say, then I can bet $1000 to win $20,000. I can do that several days in a row (if I've got that kind of money). If I think there's, say, a 25% chance that the US is going to attack, then I only have to be within four days.
- names_are_hard 8mo agoIt really wasn't rocket science. Even I packed my go bag and loaded up the car on Friday night, and I have no information they don't share on the news. (I live in Israel, and when the first siren woke me at ~8 on Saturday morning I jumped in the car and evacuated to a family member who lives in a building with a bomb shelter) I could've been wrong, but it was a reasonable guess. The local Israeli news anchors were in the newsroom broadcasting within minutes of the attack going public, I guess they slept in the office with their clothes on too.
- _3u10 8mo agoPretty sure war thunder forums still take the cake on that one. The lulz motive is far higher than the profit motive.
- jMyles 8mo agoThis presumes that the nation's security is bolstered by the government's ability to keep secrets. It strikes me that, even if this is true in some ways, the opposite is true in others.
- _vertigo 8mo agoRhetorical question: why do non-insiders still bet in these markets? Surely, after all of the focus on insiders, people will begin to realize that betting without insider knowledge is a fool’s gambit..
- coliveira 8mo agoBecause the way these companies make money is incentivizing the behavior of gambling addicts. It's just like asking why people will continue taking drugs if it's known to harm them.
- thephyber 8mo agoYou act like they all act rationally with maximum information. Kids are growing up with the culture of sports betting, meme stocks, Robinhood for easy investing (even if you can’t afford a single share of a stock), virtual items and loot boxes, “blind box” products, etc. the entire economy runs on taking advantage of people with gambling compulsions / addictions. And to answer your rhetorical-but-not-really question, not all people know they are “the fish” (referring to the quote from the movie Rounders).
- ATMLOTTOBEER 8mo agoIt’s a way to pay for valuable information
- ReptileMan 8mo ago> Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was not, it’s safe to assume, a devoted Polymarket user. If he had been, the Iranian leader might still be alive. Hours before Khamenei’s compound in Tehran was reduced to rubble last week, an account under the username “magamyman” bet about $20,000 that the supreme leader would no longer be in power by the end of March. Good thing that Polymarket gives such a good signal unlike such subtle clues as carrier group movements.
- int32_64 8mo agoLindsey Graham candidly admitting to being the agent of a foreign country is a National-Security threat.
- coliveira 8mo agoHe's not afraid because there are countless others in congress.
- Analemma_ 8mo agoThe Foreign Agents Registration Act has a de facto Israel exception. If it didn’t, half of Congress would be in violation.
- jasomill 8mo agoHas the FARA ever been used to prosecute a US official for acting in the interests of any close US ally (Israel, Saudi Arabia, Five Eyes, etc.)? As I understand it, selective prosecution has always been the rule rather than the exception.
- Dig1t 8mo agoYou could just watch the movement of tankers and jets to the middle east on flight trackers. It was extremely easy to see this coming. Note: the owner of the Atlantic has ties to Epstein and Israel. They are extremely biased on anything to do with this war in Iran.
- unyttigfjelltol 8mo agoFolks, the President announced the attack and rough date ten days in advance.[1] He did the same exact thing in 2025, with strikes beginning on the 61st day after a 60-day deadline.[2] This particular market wasn’t about the likelihood of a strike but the probability of radical success. It seems at least possible in the circumstances that the Iran Supreme leader chose his own fate, which was inherently predicable and also exactly what I seem to recall him publicly predicting, albeit without a strict deadline.[3] [1] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c86yjnw4x49o https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c86yjnw4x49o [2] https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/trump-says-he-gave-iran-a-60-day-ultimatum-today-is-day-61-now-they-have-perhaps-a-second-chance/ https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/trump-says-he-g... [3] https://www.malaysianow.com/news/2026/03/01/khamenei-killed-in-us-israeli-attack-fulfilled-wish-of-martyrdom-in-ramadan-says-iran https://www.malaysianow.com/news/2026/03/01/khamenei-killed-...
- dastuer 8mo agoThe site you cite for [3] reads: "Khamenei, the leader of the great nation of Iran, the freedom seekers of the world and the Islamic nations, has joined the highest paradise and reached his long-cherished wish of martyrdom in the holy month of Ramadan," said an announcement aired on Iranian state television. Sounds to me like it was made up after the fact.
- abustamam 8mo agoIn Islam, a Muslim who dies in war is considered a martyr, and it's desirable to die in the month of Ramadan. In other words, it's something that most Muslims want to have happen, but it's not like something we want to make happen. Like I don't want to die right now, but if I were to die, may as well be during Ramadan.
- unyttigfjelltol 8mo agoYeah, I was recalling public references to Husayn ibn Ali (Haider) [1] preparing for battle. This individual is revered for both martyrdom and victory, so I guess which one he had in mind is technically ambiguous…. It’s also the same figure that the Iranians referenced after his death .[2] [1] https://nypost.com/2025/06/18/world-news/iran-supreme-leader-ayatollah-ali-khamenei-warns-the-battle-begins-in-x-post/ https://nypost.com/2025/06/18/world-news/iran-supreme-leader... [2] https://www.news18.com/world/in-the-name-of-haidar-last-post-on-khameneis-x-account-after-trump-declared-him-dead-9936075.html https://www.news18.com/world/in-the-name-of-haidar-last-post...
- llm_nerd 8mo agoApologies for going in the weeds on a general concept that is 100% valid, but it expends a couple of paragraphs on this so I must- "Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was not, it’s safe to assume, a devoted Polymarket user." We have to assume that he made the choice to be a martyr. He was in his own home at the same time that the entire world could see the enormous buildup of resources the US was placing in the area. Trump did exactly the same tired "will he or won't he" that he has done for various other actions. An attack was the most obvious event on the planet. This isn't some magical ret-conning, but anyone with a functioning brain could predicted the outcome. I think the Polymarket angle to this is more that people were betting on whether he would choose existence over martyrdom. He could have hidden in countless places and sent various tirade videos for years, Osama-style, but this 86 year old man just decided to wait for the bombs. And on Venezuela, anyone who thinks that was just a fantastically successful op is not rational. Clearly Trump had buy-in by either the Russians -- in return for some favours on Ukraine -- or various members in the Venezuela military (or most likely of all, both). Seeing several CH-47s flying over an entirely predictable target area utterly guarantees this. Venezuela was a coup that levered the US military to fulfil it cleanly. With absolutely and complete certainty.
- spiderice 8mo ago> We have to assume that he made the choice to be a martyr I don't think we have to assume that. He could have thought the military build up was a bluff. He could have trusted in Iran's defenses to allow him time to find safety. He could have thought his assassination attempt on Trump would pan out. There are a million other could-have's that we could invent, and I don't think "him choosing to be a martyr" is any more (or less) valid than the rest of them.
- llm_nerd 8mo ago>He could have thought the military build up was a bluff. Everyone knew the US was attacking. Iran clearly knew as well. >He could have trusted in Iran's defenses to allow him time to find safety Everyone knows what Tomahawks are by now. Everyone knows that the first sign of an attack will be things blowing up around you. Further both Israel and the US have repeatedly performed airstrikes throughout Iran with impunity, including just a few months earlier with zero resistance. No, there is no rational situation where Iran thought their defenses would give cover for an old man in his own palace. It's infinitely more valid of a supposition to assume he martyred himself. Weird how this offends some people. It's especially hilarious when we have the classic "Mossad super-masterful strokes figured out that old man was...in his own home" Like if the US, through masterful intelligence and a giant bunker buster, caught him in some underground complex, then sure. That isn't what happens.
- beyondCritics 8mo agoStatistical clueless amateurs found something they did not like, but of course were unable to convert their suspicions into something sound. They do not even think about it. Nevertheless a big sensation was anounced. I am tired of this.
- beyondCritics 8mo agoIn order to demonstrate something exceptional, you have to establish a baseline. This baseline is called the "null hypothesis" in classical testing.
- furyofantares 8mo agoTo whatever extent this is true, one would also expect it to be manipulated by all interested state actors.
- abustamam 8mo agoFor whatever it's worth, Kalshi refused to pay out on the bet because Khomenei died, and they refuse to allow people to profit off of death so they returned everyone's bets. https://xcancel.com/mansourtarek_/status/2029996077554815268 https://xcancel.com/mansourtarek_/status/2029996077554815268 While I think this policy removes one avenue of incentivizing death of real people (many bets involving real people can probably be resolved by some sort of assassination attempt), I honestly think the whole concept of betting on real world events is ludicrous to begin with, including sports. It always incentivizes behavior that doesn't naturally occur (the trope of fixing horse races comes to mind).
- xeromal 8mo agoWhat is xcancel?
- foodforpokemon 8mo agoOnly bets on fake world events?
- arjie 8mo agoWell, certainly, if they had chosen otherwise it is unlikely they could have continued to operate: > ...the Commission may determine that such agreements, contracts, or transactions are contrary to the public interest if the agreements, contracts, or transactions involve—(I) activity that is unlawful under any Federal or State law; (II) terrorism; (III) assassination; (IV) war; (V) gaming; or (VI) other similar activity determined by the Commission, by rule or regulation, to be contrary to the public interest. https://www.federalregister.gov/d/2024-12125/p-93 https://www.federalregister.gov/d/2024-12125/p-93
- avaer 8mo agoThis is a real thing that has been proposed, going back at least to 90s cypherpunk culture [1]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_market https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_market
- zer0x4d 8mo agoThe author spends the first paragraph of the article talking about how n number of users bet x on a specific outcome and they won. They fail to account for the many others who bet on a different outcome and lost. I watched polymarket like a hawk for weeks before the attack and am incredibly familiar with the numbers. Fact is, there were no indications on Polymarket that an attack was happening that morning. The chances of an attack was like 10 percent if I remember correctly.
- zozbot234 8mo agoRight, the probability pre-attack never broke even 30%, which was basically in line with the most prominent opinions. The market consensus had been for a long time that there would be an attack by this summer or the end of the year, but probably not near-term. There will always be some bull traders who buy just before a big move in the market, that's no proof of insider trading.
- tasuki 8mo ago> that's no proof of insider trading. It isn't. But also the whole point of prediction markets is to allow insiders to profit in return for providing valuable information.
- lenerdenator 8mo agoThese sorts of things are in their infancy. Give people enough time, and they'll start figuring out more and more ways to try to predict the markets given observations of the real world. Some will fail, but some will definitely succeed.
- whycome 8mo agoI like this post on Reddit/r/MarkMyWords: MMW: The US will strike Iran before March 2nd, 2026 https://www.reddit.com/r/MarkMyWords/comments/1rgjwpu/mmw_the_us_will_strike_iran_before_march_2nd_2026/ https://www.reddit.com/r/MarkMyWords/comments/1rgjwpu/mmw_th...
- 8mo ago
- arjie 8mo agoWell, the natural thing to do then is to allow cryptocurrency bets on our opponents' actions. The men in their governments will likely eagerly give up valuable information in exchange for money: distributed espionage.
- BrenBarn 8mo agoAt this point the US government is a national security threat (to itself).
- ClaudioAnthrop 8mo ago[dead]
- stopbulying 8mo agoSee also: "Effort to prevent government officials from engaging in prediction markets" https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47291406 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47291406
- mattmaroon 8mo agoCan’t read much beyond the beginning, so forgive me if it mentions this and I missed it, but I have no inside information and was looking into placing the exact same bet. I was a little too slow to do it unfortunately for me. I always thought we were going to strike. We very publicly moved a lot of military assets into the region. Trump had issued a red line about Iran killing protesters, and then they killed protesters, and we all remember how he and everyone else harped on Obama for not following up on his own red line in Syria when they used chemical weapons on their own people. And most importantly, a few days before it happened, he said he wasn’t happy with the progress of talks. That was when I started figuring out how to get money into polymarket. All of this was the exact same as the buildup to Venezuela. The only thing shocking is how low the odds were on the market. While I agree with the thesis, they chose the weakest possible example.
- ares623 8mo agoIs there a bet for when Polymarket/Kalshi go kaput? Maybe a bet on each other's platforms? How about for the CEOs to lose their jobs? Or for them to get in an accident?
- deleted 8mo ago[deleted]
- irenetusuq 8mo ago[dead]
- amai 8mo agoLet's bet: Will prediction markets be forbidden at the end of the year?
- sturogers 8mo ago[dead]
- xtiansimon 8mo agoHere’s a trivial case I noticed on IG the other day. News host goes to NBC studios to tape his Colbert Late Night Show appearance. After taping was done a friend shares a polymarket on what he will talk about. But of course he had just finished taping the show and it had yet to air. https://www.instagram.com/reel/DTv8QzJkmL2/ https://www.instagram.com/reel/DTv8QzJkmL2/