10 ms·

For years, we’ve been told that the 4680 cell was the “holy grail” that would allow Tesla to produce a $25,000 electric car. For years, we've been told a lot o

For years, we’ve been told that the 4680 cell was the “holy grail” that would allow Tesla to produce a $25,000 electric car. For years, we've been told a lot of things that have never come to fruition. Just 6 months ago, we were told that Robotaxi would be available to half the US population by the end of the year. https://electrek.co/2025/07/23/elon-musk-with-straight-face-tesla-robotaxi-will-cover-half-us-population-end-year/ https://electrek.co/2025/07/23/elon-musk-with-straight-face-...

coliveira 10mo ago
Just wait another 6 months /s
- abirch 10mo ago
  Tesla isn't a car company it's a robotics company (2025) Tesla isn't a robotics company it's a meme company (2027)
  - TheOtherHobbes 10mo ago
    Tesla isn't a company (2029)
    - Maken 10mo ago
      Tesla is acquired by xAI (2026)
  - jbm 10mo ago
    The one that intrigued me more was circa the 2017 era when Tesla was supposedly an energy company. That might have justified their valuation at the time, but it turned out to be dishonest spin. Yet again, there are no adults and the shallow fabric of society fails to conceal the greed boner under the sheets.
    - rswail 10mo ago
      That's when he was bailing out the solar roof company owned by his cousins. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SolarCity https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SolarCity Being in Australia, we have the benefit of getting US, EU, CN, and other vehicle brands, as well as solar and battery suppliers. Tesla sells a lot of home batteries, but there are numerous other brands. Tesla's cars are old now, the difference is the Hyundai, Kia, Geely, ZeekR, BYD, Polestar, Mini, Lexus, Porsche, BMW, Mercedes and other brands are cars that happen to be powered by batteries, not some magic carpet of future ideas.
- lawlessone 10mo ago
  https://spaceflightnow.com/2016/04/27/spacex-announces-plan-to-send-mission-to-mars-in-2018/ https://spaceflightnow.com/2016/04/27/spacex-announces-plan-... Remember in 2016 when people would be on Mars by 2018?
  - LightBug1 10mo ago
    Please don't be so cynical. With the right mix of drugs, it is actually possible.
bdcravens 10mo ago
The full Robotaxi rollout is going to happen as soon as they finish fulfilling the Roadster preorders.
- bdangubic 10mo ago
  so like 2080 or thereabouts?
vileain 10mo ago
[flagged]
Analemma_ 10mo ago
"The car is driving itself. The human is only there for legal reasons." (Tesla, 2016)
- toomuchtodo 10mo ago
  Tesla video promoting self-driving was staged, engineer testifies - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34415413 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34415413 - January 2023 (342 comments)
  - culi 10mo ago
    This was also litigated in court where they admitted that when they tried to have the car drive itself it crashed into a fence
- mindslight 10mo ago
  "It's technically true at any given point in time" - Felon Musk, probably.
nobleach 10mo ago
And of those things we've been told, a high percentage of them have had to do with battery technology. Science is full of discoveries, science at scale doesn't always work out like we've hoped.
- majormajor 10mo ago
  Everything I remember about the Jobs RDF was entirely about things like MacWorld Expo presentations. Selling lesser-performing products for more by claiming they did more with things like Photoshop bakeoffs, or with (claimed) style over substance. (I was a big long-term Mac user so I felt like Mac OS was enough of an advantage over Windows for a long time that it wasn't just style over substance.) Musk just took it way further. When Jobs missed with the RDF it was on stuff like the G4 Cube being "cool" enough to make up for its issues. He wasn't promising miracles.
  - Yoric 10mo ago
    Took me some time to remember that RDF meant Reality Distortion Field.
PunchyHamster 10mo ago
Tesla fans have no ability to learn from past lies.
- lossolo 10mo ago
  Maybe "cultists" is a better word than fans, with Musk as their guru.
  - hvb2 10mo ago
    The model Y is a genuinely good car... I can't think of an automaker with better software. I've recently been shopping for another electric SUV and to be told that to get charging stops on your long trip 'through an app on your phone' instead of built into the navigation is.... Wild Edit: it needs to be said that I consider a car a solution to the A to B problem, and nothing more :) This was one of the premium German automakers by the way. On a ~$50k car....
    - oakesm9 10mo ago
      Pretty much every electric car has charging stops built-in to the navigation. For some the quality of the data isn’t as high, but it will be there. Many like Polestars and Renaults are built on Android Automotive (different from Android Auto) and the built-in navigation is full Google Maps with direct access to the cars battery state and control systems. Works perfectly on my Renault Megane E-Tech.
      - hvb2 10mo ago
        > Pretty much every electric car has charging stops built-in to the navigation That's my expectation too. > For some the quality of the data isn’t as high, but it will be there. This is a real issue. You might be stranded with low quality suggestions. Chargers that don't work. The large number of accounts you need to have as every charger has their own etcetera
        vel0city 10mo ago
mr_mitm 10mo ago
There is an entire Wikipedia article about Musk's (mostly) failed predictions: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autonomous_Tesla_vehicles_by_Elon_Musk https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autono...
- 1121redblackgo 10mo ago
  At what point is it fair to call the list something other than ‘predictions’
  - mr_mitm 10mo ago
    According to the article, a court would call this "corporate puffery", but to me it's nothing but lies and grifting.
    - roryirvine 10mo ago
      To be "mere puff", the claim needs to be so obviously untrue that no reasonable bystander would suppose it to be meant literally. But Musk often acts as if he does actually intend to be taken seriously. In the case of the current story, consider the marketing resources Tesla have poured into their previous "Battery Day" events and look at the press reaction; it's clear that at least some people believed that the claims stacked up. A quick search of the hn archives for "4680" shows a similar picture. Yes, there were always some sceptical voices, but they were often shouted down as being from people motivated by an anti-Elon grudge. Nevertheless, the sentiment tended to be overwhelmingly positive with many posters actively reinforcing the hype. Now, whether or not a self-selecting sample of hn posters can be seen as "reasonable bystanders" is certainly debatable - but it does seem that we're getting close to the point where Musk is going to have to start branding those who believe him as being exceptionally gullible in order to escape a charge of misleading advertising.
  - vrosas 10mo ago
    s/Predictions/Ketamine-and-adderall-fueled ramblings
whynotmaybe 10mo ago
I'm still sour of how easily I was deceived while being so happy when envisioning a future that won't come. First with autopilot, then with boring's tunnels, then a $39k cybertruck, then ... What's that saying about "fool me so many times I can't keep count" ? Whatever angry feeling we may have towards Elon Musk, he's not the richest man on earth for nothing. Lesson learned, till next time !
- toss1 10mo ago
  >>he's not the richest man on earth for nothing. He engineers perceptions, finance, and govt funds, not technology. Every report and available evidence shows he is barely technologically astute, nevermind genius; the accomplishments of his teams are despite him not because of him. Which is why a better description would be: The Greediest Man On Earth.
  - hvb2 10mo ago
    Just stating that he does seem to inspire and build teams/orgs that do great things. Both SpaceX and Tesla are accomplishments if you consider where their competitors are.
    - leptons 10mo ago
      How many massive, bloated rockets that nobody really needs have the competitors been blowing up time after time after time?
      - hvb2 10mo ago
        When they do this on their own dime and get results years ahead of competitors, is that a bad thing? If not for crew dragon, the US would be begging Russia for seats to the ISS still. Is that your preferred outcome?
        leptons 10mo ago
        I wasn't talking about "dragon", I was talking about "starship". So far they have all exploded with little to show for it.
tclancy 10mo ago
2026 is the Year of Tesla on the Desktop.
TheAlchemist 10mo ago
It's really amazing. Anyone still remembers Dojo ? 2 years ago or so they stated that they start to mass produce Dojo and it was supposed to be a top 5 supercomputer in the world by the end of 2024... https://thedriven.io/2023/06/22/tesla-to-start-building-its-fsd-training-supercomputer-dojo-next-month/ https://thedriven.io/2023/06/22/tesla-to-start-building-its-...
- zitterbewegung 10mo ago
  The Dojo team left tesla to do their own ASIC. https://www.theverge.com/news/756706/tesla-dojo-team-shut-down-supercomputer https://www.theverge.com/news/756706/tesla-dojo-team-shut-do...
  - TheAlchemist 10mo ago
    Yeah, that was already almost 1 year after they were supposedly planning to have the top 5 compute ... The reality is they announced that as a pipe dream. Just like the FSD, Robotaxi, Optimus and 10 other projects that will never work - or more precisely, they will work but >10 years from now, and it won't be from Tesla but from a competitor.
    - tjpnz 10mo ago
      Add HLS to the list.
    - spullara 10mo ago
      I'm sure there is a Polymarket for you to bet against FSD that I use to drive 99% of the time.
      - madaxe_again 10mo ago
        ?? Tesla have never manufactured a single car. They simply don’t exist. Just like those rockets that don’t exist. It’s all just CGI.
      - seanhunter 10mo ago
BoiledCabbage 10mo ago
It's incredible there is something wrong with a group of people completely unable to see when someone is lying to them. And no matter how many times they are lied to, as long as they are rich enough they believe them. I don't know what to think anymore about this. He has continuously conned his way along and does it just long enough to jump to the next con. Tesla is crashing and somehow people though giving him a huge pay package made sense. Cyber truck is flopping but now he's again living off government graft by having another company buy up the dead weight supply. Tesla is only around because of govt subsidy and now that that's dead he's turned to another govt spigot. While supposedly being opposed politically to what he's doing. And time and time again people still make up excuses because they can't believe they were conned. Probably the biggest sign AI is going to flop is him starting talking about it being right around the corner. Little technical skills, no forecasting ability, we saw how much his "efficiency management" philosophy flopped when done in public via DOGE (vs behind the scenes in a private company) and yet people keep falling for it. As long as he can keep spitting out BS, people keep falling for it.
- jfengel 10mo ago
  Beyond a certain point it becomes self-reinforcing. You will distort everything else about your world view to support that lie. You will surround yourself with other people who believe it and live in a completely internally consistent reality, surrounded by a vast conspiracy trying to bring you down. The really killer part is, I can't even be 100% certain that it's not me. I'm quite sure, and justify it solidly, but then, I would.
  - netsharc 10mo ago
    I feel the same re: killer part... Maybe the smart people are the ones who can intuitively feel the stupidity of the masses and take advantage of that, whereas the dumb are the ones who are too cautious about houses of cards and unstable Ponzi schemes...
- heresie-dabord 10mo ago
  > there is something wrong with a group of people completely unable to see when someone is lying to them. They mistakenly believe, like temporarily embarrassed millionaires/capitalists [1], that they are actually in the winning group. [1] _ https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/John_Steinbeck#Disputed https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/John_Steinbeck#Disputed
bagels 10mo ago
Year isn't over yet, hah.
cyberax 10mo ago
> Just 6 months ago, we were told that Robotaxi would be available to half the US population by the end of the year. It's available! Everyone in the US can go to Austin and get a ride in a Tesla robotaxi!
- jqpabc123 10mo ago
  Reports say there are only about 10 Robotaxis operating in Austin at any one time. https://electrek.co/2025/12/22/tesla-robotaxi-project-austin-much-smaller-than-musk-claims/ https://electrek.co/2025/12/22/tesla-robotaxi-project-austin... https://www.teslarobotaxitracker.com/ https://www.teslarobotaxitracker.com/
  - tbrownaw 10mo ago
    So s/everyone/anyone/ I guess?
anonzzzies 10mo ago
But he says that every year in the earnings call, he will say it again in the q1 call. 'By september' full of confidence and no one calling him out.
nrhrjrjrjtntbt 10mo ago
BYD Atto 3 enters the chat
ajmurmann 10mo ago
Did he always have this problem? I don't recall this from the early Tesla days. I have the totally subjective impression that the predictions have been getting worse and worse.
- bilekas 10mo ago
  The thing seems to be that he's made the same claims since the beginning and things are always being pushed out every year .. "fully self driving taxis in 2 years" He's the perfect salesman for giving investors hope, and delivers some things but promises everything. The hyperloop.. Colonizing mars by 2025 I think was one claim.. Good article here https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-lists/elon-musk-twitter-zuckerberg-lies-1234808808/ https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-lists/elon-musk... I'm happy he's pushed space access but everything else, he's coming across as a bit of a confidence man.
  - ajmurmann 10mo ago
    That's a great summary by the rolling stone. I was thinking much earlier though around the time when Tesla was switching from the original Roadster to the first sedan and when SpaceX was really focused on landing its first rocket.
- nusl 10mo ago
  Very much yes.
- filloooo 10mo ago
  I think he suffers from a kind of protagonist's dilemma. His words are literally taken as Bible by a huge part of the global audience, that he is compelled to keep the earth hopeful.
RataNova 10mo ago
And Tesla's ability to tightly align promises with engineering and supply chain execution seems to be slipping
- masklinn 10mo ago
  There's never been any such ability. Musk has been promising actual full self driving within a year or two yearly or multiple times a year since 2015 (and partial such since 2014 at least).
locknitpicker 10mo ago
> For years, we've been told a lot of things that have never come to fruition. Sometimes I wonder if Musk's astronomical pay package is an engineered rug pull on Tesla's investors. Imagine if they know the jig is up and intend to fleece stockholders one last time by leaving them holding the bag when the house of cards comes crumbling down.
londons_explore 10mo ago
There are 24 hours left in the year. Don't lose hope!
_heimdall 10mo ago
How should we consider other claims by CEOs, like claims made about the future of AI? What about claims made by politicians? Or claims made by the Federal Reserve?
- intended 10mo ago
  With analysis? Like what else? Throwing ones hands up in the air and giving up, would be valid if it was actually hard. The example you have given just mixes up CEOs, Politicians and the Fed. Being charitable, this is a question of whether someone can understand all these domains well enough to make out good from bad. Yes - people have. It takes time, effort and a desire to learn these things, but its done regularly.
  - _heimdall 10mo ago
    > For years, we've been told a lot of things that have never come to fruition. This is the specific comment I was replying to. It isn't about throwing ones hands in the air, its about realizing that CEOs are always going to embellish the present as much as possible and make claims of the future that are aspirational at best. I raise both politicians and the Fed because they both do the exact same thing when it comes to making claims of the future that they don't know will happen but hope will push people today in a certain direction. I wasn't claiming that all three groups are the same, only that they all fall afoul of the frustrating type of claimed the earlier comment took issue with.
    - intended 10mo ago
      Gotcha.

coliveira 10mo ago

Just wait another 6 months /s

abirch 10mo ago
Tesla isn't a car company it's a robotics company (2025) Tesla isn't a robotics company it's a meme company (2027)
- TheOtherHobbes 10mo ago
  Tesla isn't a company (2029)
  - Maken 10mo ago
    Tesla is acquired by xAI (2026)
- jbm 10mo ago
  The one that intrigued me more was circa the 2017 era when Tesla was supposedly an energy company. That might have justified their valuation at the time, but it turned out to be dishonest spin. Yet again, there are no adults and the shallow fabric of society fails to conceal the greed boner under the sheets.
  - rswail 10mo ago
    That's when he was bailing out the solar roof company owned by his cousins. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SolarCity https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SolarCity Being in Australia, we have the benefit of getting US, EU, CN, and other vehicle brands, as well as solar and battery suppliers. Tesla sells a lot of home batteries, but there are numerous other brands. Tesla's cars are old now, the difference is the Hyundai, Kia, Geely, ZeekR, BYD, Polestar, Mini, Lexus, Porsche, BMW, Mercedes and other brands are cars that happen to be powered by batteries, not some magic carpet of future ideas.
lawlessone 10mo ago
https://spaceflightnow.com/2016/04/27/spacex-announces-plan-to-send-mission-to-mars-in-2018/ https://spaceflightnow.com/2016/04/27/spacex-announces-plan-... Remember in 2016 when people would be on Mars by 2018?
- LightBug1 10mo ago
  Please don't be so cynical. With the right mix of drugs, it is actually possible.

bdcravens 10mo ago

The full Robotaxi rollout is going to happen as soon as they finish fulfilling the Roadster preorders.

bdangubic 10mo ago
so like 2080 or thereabouts?

vileain 10mo ago

[flagged]

Analemma_ 10mo ago

"The car is driving itself. The human is only there for legal reasons." (Tesla, 2016)

toomuchtodo 10mo ago
Tesla video promoting self-driving was staged, engineer testifies - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34415413 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34415413 - January 2023 (342 comments)
- culi 10mo ago
  This was also litigated in court where they admitted that when they tried to have the car drive itself it crashed into a fence
mindslight 10mo ago
"It's technically true at any given point in time" - Felon Musk, probably.

nobleach 10mo ago

And of those things we've been told, a high percentage of them have had to do with battery technology. Science is full of discoveries, science at scale doesn't always work out like we've hoped.

majormajor 10mo ago
Everything I remember about the Jobs RDF was entirely about things like MacWorld Expo presentations. Selling lesser-performing products for more by claiming they did more with things like Photoshop bakeoffs, or with (claimed) style over substance. (I was a big long-term Mac user so I felt like Mac OS was enough of an advantage over Windows for a long time that it wasn't just style over substance.) Musk just took it way further. When Jobs missed with the RDF it was on stuff like the G4 Cube being "cool" enough to make up for its issues. He wasn't promising miracles.
- Yoric 10mo ago
  Took me some time to remember that RDF meant Reality Distortion Field.

PunchyHamster 10mo ago

Tesla fans have no ability to learn from past lies.

lossolo 10mo ago
Maybe "cultists" is a better word than fans, with Musk as their guru.
- hvb2 10mo ago
  The model Y is a genuinely good car... I can't think of an automaker with better software. I've recently been shopping for another electric SUV and to be told that to get charging stops on your long trip 'through an app on your phone' instead of built into the navigation is.... Wild Edit: it needs to be said that I consider a car a solution to the A to B problem, and nothing more :) This was one of the premium German automakers by the way. On a ~$50k car....
  - oakesm9 10mo ago
    Pretty much every electric car has charging stops built-in to the navigation. For some the quality of the data isn’t as high, but it will be there. Many like Polestars and Renaults are built on Android Automotive (different from Android Auto) and the built-in navigation is full Google Maps with direct access to the cars battery state and control systems. Works perfectly on my Renault Megane E-Tech.
    - hvb2 10mo ago
      > Pretty much every electric car has charging stops built-in to the navigation That's my expectation too. > For some the quality of the data isn’t as high, but it will be there. This is a real issue. You might be stranded with low quality suggestions. Chargers that don't work. The large number of accounts you need to have as every charger has their own etcetera
      - vel0city 10mo ago

mr_mitm 10mo ago

There is an entire Wikipedia article about Musk's (mostly) failed predictions: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autonomous_Tesla_vehicles_by_Elon_Musk https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autono...

1121redblackgo 10mo ago
At what point is it fair to call the list something other than ‘predictions’
- mr_mitm 10mo ago
  According to the article, a court would call this "corporate puffery", but to me it's nothing but lies and grifting.
  - roryirvine 10mo ago
    To be "mere puff", the claim needs to be so obviously untrue that no reasonable bystander would suppose it to be meant literally. But Musk often acts as if he does actually intend to be taken seriously. In the case of the current story, consider the marketing resources Tesla have poured into their previous "Battery Day" events and look at the press reaction; it's clear that at least some people believed that the claims stacked up. A quick search of the hn archives for "4680" shows a similar picture. Yes, there were always some sceptical voices, but they were often shouted down as being from people motivated by an anti-Elon grudge. Nevertheless, the sentiment tended to be overwhelmingly positive with many posters actively reinforcing the hype. Now, whether or not a self-selecting sample of hn posters can be seen as "reasonable bystanders" is certainly debatable - but it does seem that we're getting close to the point where Musk is going to have to start branding those who believe him as being exceptionally gullible in order to escape a charge of misleading advertising.
- vrosas 10mo ago
  s/Predictions/Ketamine-and-adderall-fueled ramblings

whynotmaybe 10mo ago

I'm still sour of how easily I was deceived while being so happy when envisioning a future that won't come. First with autopilot, then with boring's tunnels, then a $39k cybertruck, then ... What's that saying about "fool me so many times I can't keep count" ? Whatever angry feeling we may have towards Elon Musk, he's not the richest man on earth for nothing. Lesson learned, till next time !

toss1 10mo ago
>>he's not the richest man on earth for nothing. He engineers perceptions, finance, and govt funds, not technology. Every report and available evidence shows he is barely technologically astute, nevermind genius; the accomplishments of his teams are despite him not because of him. Which is why a better description would be: The Greediest Man On Earth.
- hvb2 10mo ago
  Just stating that he does seem to inspire and build teams/orgs that do great things. Both SpaceX and Tesla are accomplishments if you consider where their competitors are.
  - leptons 10mo ago
    How many massive, bloated rockets that nobody really needs have the competitors been blowing up time after time after time?
    - hvb2 10mo ago
      When they do this on their own dime and get results years ahead of competitors, is that a bad thing? If not for crew dragon, the US would be begging Russia for seats to the ISS still. Is that your preferred outcome?
      - leptons 10mo ago
        I wasn't talking about "dragon", I was talking about "starship". So far they have all exploded with little to show for it.

tclancy 10mo ago

2026 is the Year of Tesla on the Desktop.

TheAlchemist 10mo ago

It's really amazing. Anyone still remembers Dojo ? 2 years ago or so they stated that they start to mass produce Dojo and it was supposed to be a top 5 supercomputer in the world by the end of 2024... https://thedriven.io/2023/06/22/tesla-to-start-building-its-fsd-training-supercomputer-dojo-next-month/ https://thedriven.io/2023/06/22/tesla-to-start-building-its-...

zitterbewegung 10mo ago
The Dojo team left tesla to do their own ASIC. https://www.theverge.com/news/756706/tesla-dojo-team-shut-down-supercomputer https://www.theverge.com/news/756706/tesla-dojo-team-shut-do...
- TheAlchemist 10mo ago
  Yeah, that was already almost 1 year after they were supposedly planning to have the top 5 compute ... The reality is they announced that as a pipe dream. Just like the FSD, Robotaxi, Optimus and 10 other projects that will never work - or more precisely, they will work but >10 years from now, and it won't be from Tesla but from a competitor.
  - tjpnz 10mo ago
    Add HLS to the list.
  - spullara 10mo ago
    I'm sure there is a Polymarket for you to bet against FSD that I use to drive 99% of the time.
    - madaxe_again 10mo ago
      ?? Tesla have never manufactured a single car. They simply don’t exist. Just like those rockets that don’t exist. It’s all just CGI.
    - seanhunter 10mo ago

BoiledCabbage 10mo ago

It's incredible there is something wrong with a group of people completely unable to see when someone is lying to them. And no matter how many times they are lied to, as long as they are rich enough they believe them. I don't know what to think anymore about this. He has continuously conned his way along and does it just long enough to jump to the next con. Tesla is crashing and somehow people though giving him a huge pay package made sense. Cyber truck is flopping but now he's again living off government graft by having another company buy up the dead weight supply. Tesla is only around because of govt subsidy and now that that's dead he's turned to another govt spigot. While supposedly being opposed politically to what he's doing. And time and time again people still make up excuses because they can't believe they were conned. Probably the biggest sign AI is going to flop is him starting talking about it being right around the corner. Little technical skills, no forecasting ability, we saw how much his "efficiency management" philosophy flopped when done in public via DOGE (vs behind the scenes in a private company) and yet people keep falling for it. As long as he can keep spitting out BS, people keep falling for it.

jfengel 10mo ago
Beyond a certain point it becomes self-reinforcing. You will distort everything else about your world view to support that lie. You will surround yourself with other people who believe it and live in a completely internally consistent reality, surrounded by a vast conspiracy trying to bring you down. The really killer part is, I can't even be 100% certain that it's not me. I'm quite sure, and justify it solidly, but then, I would.
- netsharc 10mo ago
  I feel the same re: killer part... Maybe the smart people are the ones who can intuitively feel the stupidity of the masses and take advantage of that, whereas the dumb are the ones who are too cautious about houses of cards and unstable Ponzi schemes...
heresie-dabord 10mo ago
> there is something wrong with a group of people completely unable to see when someone is lying to them. They mistakenly believe, like temporarily embarrassed millionaires/capitalists [1], that they are actually in the winning group. [1] _ https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/John_Steinbeck#Disputed https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/John_Steinbeck#Disputed

bagels 10mo ago

Year isn't over yet, hah.

cyberax 10mo ago

> Just 6 months ago, we were told that Robotaxi would be available to half the US population by the end of the year. It's available! Everyone in the US can go to Austin and get a ride in a Tesla robotaxi!

jqpabc123 10mo ago
Reports say there are only about 10 Robotaxis operating in Austin at any one time. https://electrek.co/2025/12/22/tesla-robotaxi-project-austin-much-smaller-than-musk-claims/ https://electrek.co/2025/12/22/tesla-robotaxi-project-austin... https://www.teslarobotaxitracker.com/ https://www.teslarobotaxitracker.com/
- tbrownaw 10mo ago
  So s/everyone/anyone/ I guess?

anonzzzies 10mo ago

But he says that every year in the earnings call, he will say it again in the q1 call. 'By september' full of confidence and no one calling him out.

nrhrjrjrjtntbt 10mo ago

BYD Atto 3 enters the chat

ajmurmann 10mo ago

Did he always have this problem? I don't recall this from the early Tesla days. I have the totally subjective impression that the predictions have been getting worse and worse.

bilekas 10mo ago
The thing seems to be that he's made the same claims since the beginning and things are always being pushed out every year .. "fully self driving taxis in 2 years" He's the perfect salesman for giving investors hope, and delivers some things but promises everything. The hyperloop.. Colonizing mars by 2025 I think was one claim.. Good article here https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-lists/elon-musk-twitter-zuckerberg-lies-1234808808/ https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-lists/elon-musk... I'm happy he's pushed space access but everything else, he's coming across as a bit of a confidence man.
- ajmurmann 10mo ago
  That's a great summary by the rolling stone. I was thinking much earlier though around the time when Tesla was switching from the original Roadster to the first sedan and when SpaceX was really focused on landing its first rocket.
nusl 10mo ago
Very much yes.
filloooo 10mo ago
I think he suffers from a kind of protagonist's dilemma. His words are literally taken as Bible by a huge part of the global audience, that he is compelled to keep the earth hopeful.

RataNova 10mo ago

And Tesla's ability to tightly align promises with engineering and supply chain execution seems to be slipping

masklinn 10mo ago
There's never been any such ability. Musk has been promising actual full self driving within a year or two yearly or multiple times a year since 2015 (and partial such since 2014 at least).

locknitpicker 10mo ago

> For years, we've been told a lot of things that have never come to fruition. Sometimes I wonder if Musk's astronomical pay package is an engineered rug pull on Tesla's investors. Imagine if they know the jig is up and intend to fleece stockholders one last time by leaving them holding the bag when the house of cards comes crumbling down.

londons_explore 10mo ago

There are 24 hours left in the year. Don't lose hope!

_heimdall 10mo ago

How should we consider other claims by CEOs, like claims made about the future of AI? What about claims made by politicians? Or claims made by the Federal Reserve?

intended 10mo ago
With analysis? Like what else? Throwing ones hands up in the air and giving up, would be valid if it was actually hard. The example you have given just mixes up CEOs, Politicians and the Fed. Being charitable, this is a question of whether someone can understand all these domains well enough to make out good from bad. Yes - people have. It takes time, effort and a desire to learn these things, but its done regularly.
- _heimdall 10mo ago
  > For years, we've been told a lot of things that have never come to fruition. This is the specific comment I was replying to. It isn't about throwing ones hands in the air, its about realizing that CEOs are always going to embellish the present as much as possible and make claims of the future that are aspirational at best. I raise both politicians and the Fed because they both do the exact same thing when it comes to making claims of the future that they don't know will happen but hope will push people today in a certain direction. I wasn't claiming that all three groups are the same, only that they all fall afoul of the frustrating type of claimed the earlier comment took issue with.
  - intended 10mo ago
    Gotcha.