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Japan's gamble to turn island of Hokkaido into global chip hub
- TheThirdNuke 11mo ago[flagged]
- voidfunc 11mo agoIs Hokkaido defensible? Once China solves the Taiwan problem they're going to turn their sights on Korea and Japan.
- TheThirdNuke 11mo agoThe Soviets trivially took the Kuril Islands and they can trivially defeat Japan if they so desire. China's also really interested in Okinawa independence. Both countries have appealed to arguments on liberating indigenous populations to hint at future military action against Japan. It's a future war zone through and through, especially now that their PM is LARPing as Hirohito reincarnate.
- ta20240528 11mo agoCan you clarify this for me: the Soviets don't exist, so how can they possibly take the whole of Japan - in some future? If you mean Russia, then no.
- TheThirdNuke 11mo agoUkraine has a proper army and the support of Europe, albeit with dated weapons. Japan has neither and it's dubious whether the United States would step in. Hokkaido has always been under threat from Russia and the Soviets quickly took the Kuril Islands, which wasn't even originally theirs.
- bamboozled 11mo agoJapan is a turn key nuclear state, that is all…
- laughing_man 11mo agoNo. The only way the Russians could prevail is to break out the nukes, and that would always run the risk of a nuclear response from the US. Japan's navy is more powerful than the Russian pacific fleet in a conventional conflict. Any attempt to land on Hokkaido would be stillborn. Even if they managed to land they would probably be pushed off pretty quickly. Japan's military is more powerful than that of Ukraine, and the Russians are already having trouble supporting troops just across the border. There's no way they would be able to support an invasion force over water. I'm skeptical the Russians could pull that off without opposition, something they would certainly have in spades.
- axiolite 11mo ago> Japan has neither and it's dubious whether the United States would step in. There is NO QUESTION the US would provide a full defense of Japan against any aggressive party. The US has multiple military bases in Japan, with 35,000+ military personnel. Japan pays the US billions every year to support the US military presence there. Japan is also a too-big-to-fail economy (4th in the world) and US trading partner. And strategically, what do you think the US "pivot to Asia" means, if not defending close US allies in the Asia-Pacific from unprovoked aggression? For over 60 years the United States-Japan Alliance has served as the cornerstone of peace, stability, and freedom in the Indo-Pacific region. The U.S. commitment to Japan’s defense under the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty of 1960 is unwavering. https://www.state.gov/u-s-security-cooperation-with-japan/
- danielscrubs 11mo agoThe Budapest Memorandum (1994) gave assurances, that the U.S. would militarily intervene or defend Ukraine under attack like an alliance-treaty. Ukraine surrendered the sharpest tool in its arsenal for those assurances, its inherited nuclear arsenal, the world’s third-largest at the time. But the loss was broader than warheads; it was the surrender of a strategic future. America first means America first. All politicians will say one thing and do another, always check the incentives…
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- ithkuil 11mo agoJapan defeated the Russian navy in 1905. I guess that means that the Empire of Japan can trivially defeat the Russian Empire if such political entities cared to exist anymore and if the result of a past confrontation was a true benchmark of the current capabilities of the respective armies and economies.
- yanhangyhy 11mo ago> Once China solves the Taiwan problem they're going to turn their sights on Korea and Japan. China will not annex Japan or South Korea. As a Chinese person, I can assure you that this is not how our mindset works at all. Most of the Western media hype about this is deliberately designed to muddy the waters around the Taiwan issue. Taiwan is different: the vast majority of people there are ethnically Chinese, so reunification is seen as an absolute necessity. But historically, China has never been good at ruling non-Han peoples. Every non-Chinese group has always been viewed as a net burden. Take Myanmar as an example: even if China occupied it and gained a warm-water port, the price would be having to assimilate tens of millions of Burmese people. That cost is simply too high; no one in China wants to pay it. The Chinese way of thinking is that only after a group has been fully Sinicized (language, culture, identity) can they be considered “one of us.” So with South Korea and Japan, the real goal is to surpass them industrially and economically, to leave them in the dust on the factory floor and in the lab. When it comes to Japan in particular, the deepest desire in many Chinese hearts is for Japan to start a war first—so China can finally settle the historical score once and for all. But even in that scenario, turning Japan into “part of China” is not on the table. No one wants 125 million thoroughly non-Sinicized Japanese inside the country; that would be seen as an endless headache, not a prize.
- voidfunc 11mo ago> Taiwan is different: the vast majority of people there are ethnically Chinese, so reunification is seen as an absolute necessity. Your illegitimate authoritarian government is free to surrender at any time and hand the keys back to the legitimate democratic ROC government then.
- yanhangyhy 11mo agoyeah its a civil war, lets see who will won. (Thank you for acknowledging that this is a civil war — that's something you rarely see on Western forums.)
- Larrikin 11mo agoChiang Kai-shek is a standard part of the world history course in the US in high school. We know why China wants Taiwan at the personal level, much of the world is just interested in that not happening. It's a civil war like the American revolution was a civil war and France helped out.
- jack_tripper 11mo agoWhat's with all this scaremongering around China gonna invade everything anytime soon? How many wars has China started? In my lifetime I've only seen one major county besides Russia having a habbit of starting illegal wars whenever geopolitics doesn't go its way and it's not China.
- laughing_man 11mo agoChina has started border skirmishes with India every twenty years or so since the founding of the PRC. And then there's Tibet. Just because they haven't initiated a mass invasion of Eastern Siberia you shouldn't get the idea China isn't pursuing an expansionist foreign policy.
- rfoo 11mo agoChina maintain the view that Tibet is part of China since the establishment of PRC, and they make this very explicit. Same for their border disputes with India. China never admitted that they believe it's not theirs. Mea while China does not ever say that Japan or Korea is part of China (and it's the only reason why they keep North Korea from collapsing despite it being super annoying). So, again, any example of China suddenly started to claim lands?
- krior 11mo agoThey also claim that the Taiwan-island is part of their territory. Since Its currently full of taiwanese people and China holds regular military exercises around that island an invasion does not seem far-fetched.
- boringg 11mo agoIt may not be far fetched but it would absolutely be a self inflicted wound to the PRC. Galvanizing global concern towards china.
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- laughing_man 11mo ago"Once China solves the Taiwan problem"? Then I suppose Japan has nothing to worry about.
- BoxedEmpathy 11mo ago“We have no choice but to cut off that dirty neck that has lunged at us, without a moment’s hesitation. Are you ready?” - Chinese Consul-General in Osaka, Xue Jian, in reference to Japan
- macleginn 11mo agoJapan has a big army/"self-defence force", impenetrable terrain over most of its territory, and 45 tonnes of plutonium. Even if the defence treaty with the US vanishes, the probability of a foreign invasion is rather low.
- Mistletoe 11mo agoIf we aren’t already in a world war from China solving Taiwan as you say, we would be in one from China taking Korea or Japan.
- ReptileMan 11mo agoTaiwan just the last remnant that the losing faction of the China civil war still holds. I don't think that China wants to conquer korea or japan. Having a vassal is usually cheaper than outright conquest and occupation. They just want the US vassals to switch to being China's
- actionfromafar 11mo agoI don't know. China is pretty successful so far in "solving Ukraine" by propping up the moth infested bear pelt USSR animatronic that is Russia.
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- numpad0 11mo agoTraditional threat to Hokkaido is Soviet tank battalions, not Chinese. It's roughly due east to Vladivostok and to south of Sakhalin island. Unless Russian Federation actually falls and these regions change hands into hostile entities, it should be okay. And there will be more important things to worry than continuing economical chip production if that happens.
- BoxedEmpathy 11mo ago“We have no choice but to cut off that dirty neck that has lunged at us, without a moment’s hesitation. Are you ready?” -Chinese Consul-General in Osaka, Xue Jian, directed at Japan Is that not a threat?
- numpad0 11mo agoJapan's also like, long as the distance between Warsaw to Barcelona. Or to Gibraltar if you include islands south to Okinawa. And Hokkaido is an "island" that's about as big as the entire Czech Republic. Is investment in a French chip factory considered risky because it's practically right in front of Russia... not really no? The Chinese threat is also being handled by rapid rearmament. JSDF has been like, dual-fast-tracking lots of things including MRBMs for operational capabilities in 2026-27 timeframes.
- dragonelite 11mo agoIt depends what japan and korea will do to piss of China just to please their far away masters.
- boringg 11mo agoWhat kind of line is "once china solves the taiwan problem"? You assume that they will take Taiwan. Have you not been privy to the utter embarrassment of a continental power trying to take Ukraine right now? China is very aware of the isolated situation Russia is now in. They have desire to be in that situation. Noone is letting China "solve the taiwan problem" like you said. Such inflammatory language.
- mrguyorama 11mo agoThe Ukraine invasion is the biggest boost to China's Taiwan invasion plan ever. If the world reacts to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan the way we have reacted to Russia invading Ukraine, China will consider that a great victory, and might be able to take Taiwan. If the US, Japan, and Korea do not commit fully to naval interdiction and blockading China from attacking Taiwan, Taiwan is likely to fall eventually. China is not Russia. Xi somehow is not as utterly isolated from reality as Putin is. Putin didn't even know that Ukraine would resist, and was entirely convinced that Ukrainians would welcome them. China can build new equipment, and new modern equipment at that. Russia can barely manage to bring ancient tank hulls up to 2000s level and send them to the front line. They are also running out of old hulls to do that with. China has a sizeable and meaningful air force, modern battlespace management that was shown effective by Pakistan's use in their recent conflict. Is the current US admin actually competent enough to protect Taiwan even if they want to?
- SapporoChris 11mo agoYes. But I will entertain the idea that Hokkaido is not defensible. Now, with Hokkaido not being defensible, please explain why it has been an Japanese territory since the 15th century?
- ZguideZ 11mo agoI found this a really funny thread of answers to read. Maybe Japan should start making historical claims like China does. Japan could claim much of Asia, create a new historical narrative that the atrocities were manufactured fake news and that the oppressed peoples of Taiwan, Korea, Nanjing, South East Asia, and Oceania were illegally forced to leave the Japanese Empire due to propaganda and illegal militantism where the victors then created a fake narrative of Japanese war crimes. Maybe Japan should tear up the peacenik constitution that was forced on it by Nuclear USA and written by a woman from Kansas and turn the SDF back into the Japanese War Machine - revive industries, begin to reclaim territories for essential resources, and once again move towards the creation of a glorious co-prosperity sphere. The US seems to be reviving the NAZI war machine and is only steps away from adopting swastika as a positive symbol, so why not Japan bring back the old flag and mentality too? - I know this is ridiculous. So are most of these comments.
- moogleii 11mo agoSomewhat related: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44828559 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44828559
- agentifysh 11mo agoisn't it risky to build this in a seismically active region? wouldn't somewhere that has almost no history of earthquakes like korea be better?
- loeg 11mo agoJapan doesn't have the option of building in Korea? Not if it wants to retain sovereign control.
- rich_sasha 11mo agoIt would be darkly amusing if all chips come from either politically unstable Taiwan or seismically unstable Hokkaido. But then Japan seems amazing at producing all sorts of other delicate things, despite all of its soil being basically built out of earthquakes, so I guess they have this bit figured out.
- noduerme 11mo agoThat's not even a tough call if you had to lay odds on which would go offline first. Is "politically unstable" once again an acceptable euphemism for a small democracy being threatened with destruction by a totalitarian superpower? I thought we decided that was gauche. After, say, the German invasion of Czechoslovakia.
- Braxton1980 11mo agoI don't think China wants to destroy Taiwan. They want it to be a part of China.
- SllX 11mo agoRight now there is no non-violent path to achieving that because Taiwan intends to violently and militarily resist if it comes to that. Probably with the aid of America, although I’m a lot less certain of that than 5 year ago, and it’s looking like it’s a lot more likely to be with the aid of Japan as well. Also a success by the PRC would still result in the political destruction of the Republic of China and the subjugation of its people.
- constantcrying 11mo agoAs a European I have to say I am extremely jealous of a government with the willingness of doing something as radical as this. Europe desperately needs to secure its own semi conductor supply chain. Neither the EU nor any member states seems willing to do anything about this though. Europe still is in a position, where it feasibly could control 100% of the semiconductor value chain on the continent. But besides meaning posturing there is nothing being done.
- mono442 11mo agoAt least European countries excel at introducing new regulations and taxes.
- constantcrying 11mo agoYeah. Who wants to be a military superpower or a manufacturing superpower, when they could be a regulatory superpower.
- inglor_cz 11mo agoOne of our problems (EU citizen here too) is the delusion that because everyone in the world wants access to European markets, everyone will bend their knees to our regulations and we can effectively dictate the world's standards. Given that our market share on the global economy is dropping steadily, this won't hold forever. By 2040 or so it might be more advantageous for Asian producers to just avoid our bureaucratized space altogether. Already this year we had a showdown with Qatar over some ESG reporting and we lost handily, because we needed their gas more than they needed our money.
- riffraff 11mo ago> By 2040 or so it might be more advantageous for Asian producers to just avoid our bureaucratized space altogether. in favour of what? Every other large market (China, India, USA) has extreme protectionism in place.
- keepamovin 11mo agoMaybe we should stop selecting islands next to China to be global critical supply chain hubs. I mean, even if the Chinese were non-expansionist and benevolent, it's still kind of tempting them a little too much.
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- mikkupikku 11mo agoWho is "we"? Japan doesn't have much choice, they either do things even though they are next to China, or ..what? Maybe its time for people to stop being paralyzed by fear and invest in their future. If China is such a severe threat to Japan, then invest more in the JSDF. Yes, China is powerful and has an aggressive stance, but that's no reason to give up without a fight. Japan and South Korea together can very nearly match China's shipbuilding tonnage per year, and besides that Japan collaborates with America to develop advanced naval missiles like the SM-3 Block IIA. Effective deterrence of China w.r.t. Japan should be achievable if people stop overdosing on blackpills.
- keepamovin 11mo agoThis is more of a humorous take. We already have trouble with one chip nexus is right next to China, and now we build another one? "ha ha". We is humanity. The collective we probably doesn't want a lever of the future controlled by a totalitarian communist ehnostate. But yes, I agree Japan, Indonesia (as was intended), etc should wise up.
- mikkupikku 11mo ago"We already have trouble with one chip nexus is right next to China, and now we build another one? "ha ha". We is humanity." Your "whole humanity 'We'" isn't who's investing in chip industry in Hokkaido. It's Japan.
- DeathArrow 11mo agoMeanwhile in Europe...
- embedding-shape 11mo agoMeanwhile what? Europe already have chip manufacturing but focused on industrial and embedded usage, while others seems oriented towards consumer stuff.
- mrweasel 11mo agohttps://www.esmc.eu/ https://www.esmc.eu/ it's not 3 or 5nm, but 12nm FinFet isn't bad.
- tdeck 11mo agoWhy are all the comments here so weird? It's like people saw (but didn't read) an article entitled "Man Opens a Taqueria in his Hometown" and the only responses are 1) Why didn't he open it in my hometown? This location isn't convenient for me. 2) Wouldn't it be better for someone else to open a taqueria instead? My cousin is looking for work. Shouldn't we be putting resources into helping him open a restaurant instead? It's like people hear "X in Asian country" and all they can think about is their own geopolitical narrative fed to them by the US state department. Obviously Japan is going to want to develop lucrative manufacturing... within Japan.
- alephnerd 11mo agoUsually around now (6am PST), HN tends to be dominated by Western (and some Eastern) European commentators. I've noticed they tend to have a weird mix of orientalist sentiment along with a "Europe should be able to do this too" sentiment (though in a lot of cases, this is moreso sentiment than reality).
- gsf_emergency_6 11mo agoLet me contribute my Europeanist sentiment by pointing out that the harmonious design of the fab is pure tatemae. The Japanese professional class care fuckall about PFAS and environmental issues have always been low on the list of priorities. Sorry. I love the Hokkaido produce. https://www.americanchemistry.com/chemistry-in-america/chemistries/fluorotechnology-per-and-polyfluoroalkyl-substances-pfas/pfas-critical-to-semiconductors-and-advanced-technologies https://www.americanchemistry.com/chemistry-in-america/chemi...
- tdeck 11mo agoIt's certainly something to be concerned about. Even the building where MOS Technology made the 6502 (in Norristown PA) is still a contaminated EPA superfund site. It's an industry with very nasty chemicals and a long history of leaking them.
- jack_tripper 11mo ago
- wjsdj2009 11mo agoInteresting perspective. Thanks for sharing.
- supportengineer 11mo agoGood choice with a proven track record. S. R. Hadden built an impressive machine there in the late 90’s.
- FeteCommuniste 11mo ago"Why build one when you can have two at twice the price?"
- pbrum 11mo agoI resolutely approve of this comment. Bravo.
- calvinclaire 11mo ago[dead]
- rdl 11mo agoHokkaido is by a wide margin my favorite place in the world. If I could easily HQ a tech company there (for global sales; Japan domestic market is stagnant), I would.
- johndeere85 11mo ago[dead]
- octaane 11mo agoThis, on the surface, makes logistical sense. Chitose (the proposed location) is the international airport for and largest airport in Hokkaido (New Chitose Airport). Setting up a fab and related facilities right next to this location would seem to have obvious benefits.
- alephnerd 11mo agoJapan tends to be a favorite for most enterprise SaaS companies when opening an APJ sales foothold - no other Asian economy is of a similar size and open to Western firms. Additionally, a Tokyo HQ often manages your South Korea and Taiwan operations as well because of legacy business ties from the colonial era as well as the flying geese era. That said, Sapporo does remain a bit of a niche area like Seattle or Portland before semiconductors because of how dominant Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya are. Knock on wood the Rapidus helps spark a Japanese Beaverton.
- ksec 11mo agoThat is just logistics, but what about power consumption, environmental issues next to agriculture etc. I am wondering why Hokkaido instead of other places in Japan.
- ZguideZ 11mo agoI'm an American who bought a house in Hokkaido and have been living there for 18 months. Hokkaido is wonderful and Chitose is close to Sapporro (more like a suburb), has an international airport (direct flights to Seoul, Taipei, Shanghai, etc) and the bullet train will be completed by 2030 from Tokyo to Sapporro. The nature and food are unrivaled in Hokkaido and in terms of the people and culture - until about the 1880s it was primarily an Ainu place but then large immigration from all parts of Japan which has created a unique culture in Hokkiado with aspects of culture from all of Japan's regions. What has been missing is industry. Resource extraction has been one industry in decline (fishing, timber, coal). Banking and finance have mostly been centred in Tokyo. A high tech chip industry in Hokkaido, in particular if Taiwan is merged with PRC might be exactly the thing for Hokkaido to boom - in particular since it is less prone to natural disasters and climate change may be warming things up.
- Dracophoenix 11mo agoA few questions: How much did you pay for the house? How much rennovation did it need? Are you working remotely there? How did you acquire a house in an area that's less accommodating to English than Tokyo? Did you need/use a real estate agent?
- 1vuio0pswjnm7 11mo agoGood snowboarding at Niseko back in the day