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Brexit reduced UK GDP by 6-8%, investments by 12-18% [pdf]
- david38 11mo agoGDP is a meaningless measure for all but governments and the very elite. How about some metrics on issue that led to Brexit?
- grokys 11mo agoRacism has increased, yes. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cp3vg33nje4o https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cp3vg33nje4o
- kitsune1 11mo ago[dead]
- werds 11mo agoThe metrics for that were pretty much: 2 World Wars and 1 World Cup.
- yongjik 11mo agoI remember someone on HN complaining that there were places selling authentic Polish sausages in London, and somehow it sounded they were deeply unhappy about it. I don't know if average Londoners can still afford authentic Polish sausages, but if they can't, I hope the original commenter is happy now.
- newfriend 11mo agoBut what about the food though!
- Tade0 11mo agoPoland's GDP per capita went from less than 20% that of the UK in 2005 to 38-48% currently depending on source. Those sausages have only become less affordable.
- alkyon 11mo agoIt only makes sense to compare GDP between countries on PPP basis. Otherwise you don't account for currency rate fluctuations and difference in averge price level. IMF figures for 2025: 87% GDP per capita PPP, 50% nominal GDP per capita https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)...
- ikiris 11mo agoThe English are deathly afraid of food with flavor.
- georgeecollins 11mo ago>> GDP is a meaningless measure for all but governments and the very elite. Source? The top three GDP per capita are: Lichtenstein, Luxembourg, Bermuda. The bottom three are: Afghanistan, Yemen, South Sedan. As an average person I would rather live in the top countries of the list than the bottom but that's just anecdote.
- ttoinou 11mo agoTaking maximas and minimas is only saying that the scale of GDP figures is interesting to look at. Like does it have 3 figured or 6 figures ? But that metric is easily done with others measures than GDP. And yeah, if you study GDP its easy to see it’s a giant scam and the economy cannot be put into numbers. Qualities are better than quantities
- mmooss 11mo ago> if you study GDP its easy to see it’s a giant scam and the economy cannot be put into numbers. Qualities are better than quantities You'll need to have some sources for that!
- ttoinou 11mo agoI don’t. It’s people who pretend the economy can be measured that should prove their point (they can’t)
- mmooss 11mo agoGDP has been studied and demonstrated for decades. I wonder if there are any economic metrics that are better studied.
- ttoinou 11mo agoIts an argument from authority. All those people could be wrong about what the economy is about, it does happen that 90% of people are wrong about something, collectively. And every country measures it differently. Even if it was really meaningful, by the simple Cobra effect it would be made meaningless
- tomlockwood 11mo agoIf you have a look at figure 2 here: https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/long-term-international-migration-flows-to-and-from-the-uk/ https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/lo... You'll see that immigration was at record levels post Brexit.
- Aloisius 11mo agoYes, but a third of Poles emigrated, largely ending Brits' moral panic about Polish plumbers stealing the jobs, social housing and increasing housing prices. Not that it solved the issue of jobs, social housing or housing prices of course.
- tomlockwood 11mo agoSo a largely imaginary "problem" was replaced with an even larger "problem".
- skywhopper 11mo agoWhat issue is that? Propagandistic, lying media spreading misinformation to the public as corrupt politicians, being paid off by malign foreign actors intent on destroying the influence and power of Britain on the world stage? Yes, let’s see some details on that.
- hdgvhicv 11mo agoImmigration massively up, mainly legal, but illegal immigration’s up too. Right have been removed from tens of millions of Brits (some like Farage have kept their European citizenship but most have had it taken away) I’m still waiting for a benefit.
- nrhrjrjrjtntbt 11mo agoThat would make sense. Less trade. Fewer workers in UK etc. Was it worth it? (Dont know... dont have too much dog in fight)
- femiagbabiaka 11mo agoNo
- deleted 11mo ago[deleted]
- A_D_E_P_T 11mo ago> Was it worth it? Though I know yours is a rhetorical question, I'll answer: No. Brexit was essentially an anti-immigration and pro-deregulation movement. Simple small-c conservatism. (It was also anti-status-quo, but that was implicit.) The, uh, "Conservatives" who were tasked with implementing Brexit supercharged immigration and, with considerable assistance from the EU, doubled down on ridiculous social and business regulations, paperwork, and red tape. There was no upside. They just made everything much worse. I know that they expected the Brexit vote to fail, and I think there's a term for their subsequent actions: "Malicious compliance." Now England is a powder keg if there ever was one. If things are going to kick off, it'll happen there first. As Weimar as America is these days, England is worse.
- TheOtherHobbes 11mo agoThe immigration betrayal was obvious to anyone familiar with UK history. It's how the ruling class works. They import cheap labour from the (former) colonies to drive down wages. Then they pay their puppet politicians to hyperventilate about how terrible immigration is, how filthy these foreigners are, and how it Must Be Stopped. It's been happening for centuries - the same scam, over and over.
- A_D_E_P_T 11mo agoAre you joking? Estimates are that between 1870 and 1913 net emigration of British citizens averaged about 131,000 per year, i.e. more people left the UK than arrived: >https://docs.iza.org/dp81.pdf https://docs.iza.org/dp81.pdf In the 1881 census of England and Wales, "natives of foreign states" were 174,372 people, just 0.671% of the population. In the 19th century, England was a country of emigrants, with net migration at roughly -100k/year. From 2014–24, you're looking at typically +200k to +900k per year. This is totally unprecedented to put it mildly. And now, like it or not, I'm sure that things are going to get ugly.
- naIak 11mo agoThe same people who tell you that GDP means nothing to the average person and that investments only go to the rich will tell you that Brexit was bad because it reduced GDP and investments.
- Zigurd 11mo agoOK let's look at other measurements: Did Brexit increase UK soft power? Did Brexit increase cultural exchanges? Was Brexit good for the universities? Is the food better and more wholesome? Was racism reduced?
- GenerWork 11mo ago>Is the food better and more wholesome? Why do people always focus on food in these discussions? It's such a weak argument.
- mmooss 11mo agoIt's not highly consequential, but it's a powerful representation that everyone can understand. Something the GP omitted: Recently, weren't there supply and inflation issues regarding food? Of course, many in the land of kidney pies might be just as happy either way. :)
- GenerWork 11mo ago>Recently, weren't there supply and inflation issues regarding food? From a US perspective, the supply and inflation issues regarding food were primarily focused on eggs, and the problem resolved itself as soon as companies stopped killing chickens due to whatever avian flu was going around. That being said, it might be different for the land of kidney pies, I'm not sure. Also, I should've been clearer in my original comment. I usually hear the whole "but what about the food?" argument from people who are just upset that deportation of illegals will make their favorite empanada restaurant close, or who argue that the original food of a place is terrible and by introducing migrants of legal or illegal status, then everything (culinary scene & life in general) will magically become better.
- rhaps0dy 11mo agoYeah, but long term it will increase GDP due to the UK being able to have better (fewer) regulations than those allowed by the EU. It does require Parliament getting it together.
- bad_haircut72 11mo agoEnjoy your chlorinated chickens guv!
- deleted 11mo ago[deleted]
- rhaps0dy 11mo agoI'm vegan, I don't eat tortured animals. Thanks though.
- deleted 11mo ago[deleted]
- colechristensen 11mo agoOk but the current vibe in the UK is Parliament wants to watch you while you sleep so they can judge your worthiness. Not exactly an "efficient regulations" regime.
- advisedwang 11mo agoThe UK will get 6% GDP recovery from curved bananas alone!
- jasoneckert 11mo agoI'm assuming this was posted to draw a parallel with current U.S. international policy, such as tariffs and protectionist measures, which share some fundamental similarities with Brexit.
- ares623 11mo agoHopefully it leads to more investments in other places. That way the voters will eventually get what they want in a monkey’s paw way. Less immigration because the home countries get more investments and more opportunities.
- mmooss 11mo agoThe NY Times had an interesting article in the last week about Vietnam, which continues to embrace globalization, and with good results.
- ares623 11mo agoDo you mean it turns out America was already great (despite still having some problems) and that’s why the whole world was flocking to it. In fact, it was so great that it was sucking up potential greatness from other countries.
- mmooss 11mo ago?
- nxm 11mo agoIs illegal immigration a problem in Vietnam?
- LightBug1 11mo agoPainful seeing it in numbers. And people wonder why the UK is struggling ... It's a fucking mystery, isn't it ...
- dakial1 11mo agoProving that another thing extremists share (on whatever side) is the total lack of economic sense.
- standardUser 11mo agoI honestly believed that Britain would find a way to hold a second referendum before Brexit, given that the polling almost universally favored "remain" after the vote, and the vote itself was so close (52% to 48%). Now what surprises me is the lack of enthusiasm for Scottish independence (62% voted to remain), though I can't claim to keep up on Scottish politics. Maybe someone knows?
- mmooss 11mo ago52-48 is a reasonably solid win in elections.
- standardUser 11mo agoIt's not uncommon in some democracies to require multiple votes for major changes (such as constitutional changes or leaving/entering intergovernmental orgs). And 4 points may be a clear margin, but it's not a large margin, and polling showed an immediate shift in opinion. In terms of the Scots, 62% is an actual blowout. And I'd think it might be enough to overcome the 10 point gap on their vote on independence (pre-Brexit).
- hdgvhicv 11mo agoIn a 52-48 referendum this would be unfinished business by a long way.
- crote 11mo agoYes, but this wasn't the usual two-party election. The 1972 referendum to join the EU got a 67% "yes" vote, the 2011 Alternate Vote referendum got a 68% "no" vote. You see similar number with, say, California's ballot propositions: a "solid win" is closer to a two-thirds majority. 52-48 is close enough to flip depending on the weather.
- vidarh 11mo agoA reasonable way of achieving that would have been to announce a referendum on the deal, with the other option being to remain. But it was idiocy to not set those kinds of terms out before the vote.
- jmyeet 11mo agoThese are the dying days of neoliberalism where only a fasicst police state is capable of propping it up. The core problem here, and pretty much everywhere else, is rising inequality. We have seen a truly massive wealth transfer from the poor to the rich (either directly or via the government) and we're rapidly reaching the point where the poor simply won't have anything left. Post-GFC austerity measures have been an abject failure. Successfully blaming those failures on immigration (as what became the Reform movement did) directly led to Brexit because neoliberalism in the UK is uniparty. So here we are where Nigel Farrage is odds on favorite to be the next Prime Minister of the UK (barring whatever leadership coups take place in Labor in until the next election, at least 1 of which is expected). So the problems of neoliberalism are blamed on migrants. There is no counter-narrative to that. So we see a rise in isolationism and nationalism. And nothing improves. Well done, the system works. What I find particularly fascinating is that many who push this agenda fetishize the 1950s (particularly in the US), which is funny because there was vastly less inequality and the marginal tax rate (in the US) was 91%. Switzerland and Norway have better navigated being on the edge of the EU but not in it. But Norway has vast oil reserves (and, to their credit, is using them for a sovereign wealth fund instead of minting a handful of billionaires). Switzerland was the banking center but is really losing that title. Britain was once the heart of a vast empire and it too is a financial hub and a center for international money laundering (ie real estate) but, much like Switzerland, it doesn't really produce anything anymore.
- mmooss 11mo ago> only a fasicst police state is capable That's what the fascists always have said. The post-neoliberals have created even more inequality, and openly oppose any efforts to fix it. The US government is still trying to disrupt food programs for the hungry. > There is no counter-narrative to that. So we see a rise in isolationism and nationalism. Few argue for a counter-narrative, but there are plenty. One is that almost everyone in the US is in a family of immigrants. The economic counter-narrative is overwhelming. Also economics is not a zero-sum competition - it's not beggar-thy-neighbor: If your neighbor does well, you do well - they are your employers, customers, employees, lenders, borrowers, renters, etc. Fewer neighbors is a smaller, slower economy.
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- phendrenad2 11mo agoI thought the point of Brexit was to change the UK to differ from the EU, but has anything really changed? Is it too late to breenter?
- giobox 11mo agoRejoining the EU can absolutely be done, but I think it's unlikely the UK could join on the terms it had before, I can't see that being accepted in the current political climate in Europe. In theory, any new country joining the EU has to switch to the common currency, the Euro, something the UK was able to gain an exemption from while still a member along with Denmark, Sweden and a handful of others, a long time ago when the Euro was first introduced. This has always been an issue when discussing Scottish independence too, given the SNP have always claimed Scotland could rejoin the EU and keep the pound; the EU has always said otherwise. > https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/euro/enlargement-euro-area/who-can-join-and-when_en https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/euro/enlargement-euro-a...
- vidarh 11mo agoSweden doesn't have an exemption. But to join the Euro, it is a requirement to be a member of ERM II for 2 years, and Sweden argues that that is voluntary, and just haven't done it. You're right that Denmark has an opt-out, though.
- Ekaros 11mo agoOn other hand Denmark has pegged their currency to Euro and hold that peg.
- nradov 11mo agoInstead of "breenter" it would probably be more realistic for the UK to join up with Mexico, USA, and Canada as a fourth member of that trace bloc. Together they would then have more power to negotiate a favorable trade deal with the EU.
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- ipaddr 11mo agoGDP is a measurement that doesn't reflect the wealth of the average voter and foreign investment less so. What good is 8% higher gdp if that only belongs to richest. A lower gdp but higher wages is a win for the average citizen and a loss for the banking class. Brexit was a loss for the banking class but win for the average person.
- monooso 11mo ago> Brexit was a loss for the banking class but win for the average person. That has not been my experience, and I haven't seen any data to support your statement. Please feel free to provide sources.
- ipaddr 11mo agoAverage citizen wanted unlimited immigration to stop based on voting. Smaller hiring pool high wages. Please share your experience how have things turned worse for you. When did it happen?
- monooso 11mo agoAverage citizen voted for a bunch of lies (and liars). Have you already forgotten about the Boris Bus, or him being publicly censured by the ONS (and then carrying on with the same lies)?
- thousand_nights 11mo agohello it's me the average voter my wealth is reduced
- ipaddr 11mo agoWages or wealth? Don't forget to factor covid in.
- beejiu 11mo agoHaving 8 governments in 9 years probably didn't help
- subscribed 11mo agoWell, that one was mostly Kremlin money. Impressive feat.
- bloqs 11mo agoPeople who voted for Brexit didnt vote because of GDP and Investments
- bigbadfeline 11mo ago> People who voted for Brexit didnt vote because of GDP and Investments. Nevertheless they got the opposite of what they voted for, besides lower GDP and investments.
- toomuchtodo 11mo agoAnd the ones who tipped the scale are already dead based on voting by age cohort. Like ordering dinner and dipping out before they’ve served the meal. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-36616028 https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-36616028
- illiac786 11mo agoHow do you decide which were the 2% that tipped the scale? Could have been the 18-22 years old too, no? Could have been any cohort, it’s a mathematical fallacy to pretend otherwise I feel.
- thih9 11mo agoThis has been the sentiment at the time, I suppose coming from the percentages in the cohorts: > 64% of over-65s voted for Brexit - compared with 71% of under-25s who voted Remain Source and more context: "Vince Cable: Young 'shafted' over Brexit" https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-40842017 https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-40842017
- miohtama 11mo agoEvery democratic country gets a government they deserve
- Gud 11mo ago
- blibble 11mo agothis is the study that assumes if the UK had voted remain, GDP would have grown 2-3x faster than similar sized nations in the EU seems to be somewhat of a stretch
- mike_hearn 11mo agoIt's not somewhat of a stretch, it's a deliberate lie. We get stories like this one every few months here on HN. It's always this kind of thing. They make up an unsupportable counterfactual and then claim a reduction relative to their fantasy world. People point it out and get downvoted by the I'm-an-EU-citizen types who can't accept that there was no impact on the UK from leaving. No negative impact on GDP, no negative impact on trade with the EU, no change to academic funding (UK is back in the Horizon programme, for better or worse, which was supposedly impossible cherry picking). You can see all such claims are lies by just looking at the relevant graphs and comparing like with like. UK GDP has continued to track that of France. These are neighbors with similar economies, one in the EU and one out. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-per-capita-maddison-project-database?tab=line&time=2002..latest&country=GBR~FRA&mapSelect=~GBR https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-per-capita-maddison-p... You could also compare to prior trajectory or look at trade impact. This study doesn't do any of those things. It makes up a convoluted economic simulation and compares against that, with "uncertainty" being a major component. It's the same technique used to predict a recession immediately following the 2016 vote that would cause 800,000 job losses. No recession happened and employment numbers hit record highs. The prior failure of economic forecasting doesn't stop them from doing it again, with full confidence. The establishment tell these lies about Brexit for the same reason they doctor video footage of Trump. They staked their credibility on these things being a disaster, and when the sky didn't fall it shook their worldview. Letting go of their prior beliefs is hard because the updates required would affect everything, so some of them decided that maybe if they lie hard and often enough they can live in the fantasy forever.
- aiisjustanif 11mo ago> there was no impact on the UK from leaving. No negative impact on GDP, no negative impact on trade with the EU, no change to academic funding I think that is a bit disingenuous - Good exports are down significantly and exponentially while services exported are up significantly [1]. This has a massive impact on agriculture, fishing as well but it is its own can of worms historically. - Migration between EU continues to drop and the promise that free movement would continue is not true [2]. There is a stagnation and decline in speciality medical jobs in the UK post Brexit [4] and a significant decrease in investment forecast and outrun [5]. These both have led to less than projected increases UK job numbers. - The UK is now paying the EU £6.4bn a year for no benefit [3] [1]: https://www.aston.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2024-09/Full%20Report.pdf https://www.aston.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2024-09/Full%20R... [2]: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/longterminternationalmigrationprovisional/yearendingjune2024 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populati... [3]: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/65fc4485a6c0f70011ef91bd/European_Union_Finances_Statement_2023_-_Statement_on_the_implementation_of_the_Withdrawal_Agreement.pdf https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/65fc4485a6c0f... [4]: https://www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/news-item/has-brexit-affected-the-uk-s-medical-workforce https://www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/news-item/has-brexit-affect... [5]: https://www.camecon.com/hubfs/145725293/GLA_Impacts-of-Brexit-report_Final.pdf https://www.camecon.com/hubfs/145725293/GLA_Impacts-of-Brexi...
- nakamoto_damacy 11mo agoWho gained financially from Brexit? I mean in terms of the "elite" behind the scene. If no one gained that would be really weird. Someone or some group of people must have gained something, financially, even in an indirect way. Can you think of anyone who benefitted?
- tsoukase 11mo agoThe few families that rule the UK were undecided if joining EU was benefiting, mainly for them, or not. They experimented, the experimemt failed and they cancel it. I believe the most important reason was that they felt subordinate to the Germans and couldn't predict this feeling beforehand.