9 ms·
Here's a csv and google sheet of the data. Turns out they aren't tariffs countries charge us. They are trade imbalance percentages. Unreal: https://docs.goo
by mcoliver 2y ago
Here's a csv and google sheet of the data. Turns out they aren't tariffs countries charge us. They are trade imbalance percentages. Unreal:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xK0OQ5VGl8JHmDSIgbXhCIRyYe3Ta0qgFvTz7ASL7JM/edit?usp=sharing https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1xK0OQ5VGl8JHmDSIgbXh...
https://gist.github.com/mcoliver/69fe48d03c12388e29cc0cd87eb44df6 https://gist.github.com/mcoliver/69fe48d03c12388e29cc0cd87eb...
- danny_codes 2y agolol when I saw him hold up his piece of cardboard I thought, “yeah that’s definitely random numbers he invented 2 hours ago”
- rramadass 2y agoI see how the tariff numbers may have been calculated. But why is it done that way? What is the rationale behind such a calculation? Is this a way to balance the existing trade deficits? How does it work? Would appreciate you (or anybody else) shed some light on the economics of the thing.
- saberdancer 2y agoIf he used real numbers the tariffs would be so low that it wouldn't make any sense.
- n2d4 2y agoThe label "tariffs charged to the US" is just straight-up wrong, either due to incompetence or malice (likely to justify the high tariffs). But basing the tariffs on import/export ratio makes sense if your goal is to be a net exporter with every country, as it discourages imports until that's the case. It's still somewhat arbitrary though; my guess is that the White House is pursuing that goal mostly for political, not economical reasons.
- sorcerer-mar 2y agoIt's because he thinks trade deficits are somehow a subsidy. He has literally used the terms interchangeably. He's just dumb.
- myvoiceismypass 2y agoI would love to hear the plan on how the US can be a net exporter of coffee with, say, Indonesia (32% tariff). Perhaps we can take the funds from the tariffs and build mass greenhouses?
- bitcurious 2y agoWhy do you think the plan is to export every single good? The calculation is clearly on the total import/export balance.
- dfadsadsf 2y agoWe do not have to be net exporters of coffee - Indonesia can buy US cars, corn and wheat for example to balance trade.
- sorcerer-mar 2y agoAh yes, all we have to do is drive US wages so low that Indonesian wages can employ Americans just as readily as our wages employ Indonesians.
- Qworg 2y agoYou can see the report here: https://ustr.gov/issue-areas/reciprocal-tariff-calculations https://ustr.gov/issue-areas/reciprocal-tariff-calculations Given that both elasticities were set to cancel each other, that's why you get a flat trade deficit/imports calculation. This is, sadly, the way a freshman econ student would calculate tariffs.
- cbovis 2y agoSuggestion that the admin is vibe governing: https://bsky.app/profile/amyhoy.bsky.social/post/3lluo7jmsss2w https://bsky.app/profile/amyhoy.bsky.social/post/3lluo7jmsss...
- nullhole 2y agoThe bit I love is that countries with which the US has a trade surplus aren't getting the opposite of a tariff (a grant, I guess) on their imports to the US, they aren't getting zero tariffs on their imports to the US, they're getting 10% tariffs.
- femto 2y agoHeard Island and McDonald Islands, two Australian territories inhabited only by penguins, get singled out for a 10% tariff. Norfolk Island, an Australian community of 3000 with no exports to the US, gets its own 29% tariff. They're expecting a tourism boost from the publicity. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/03/donald-trump-tariffs-antarctica-uninhabited-heard-mcdonald-islands https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/03/donald-trump...
- rukuu001 2y agoOnce again they proceed far beyond the reach of satirists
- MetaWhirledPeas 2y agoYou jest, but I wonder if this is to stop shenanigans like claiming your business operates from there just to dodge tariffs.
- RaiausderDose 2y agoThank you for posting this, the misinformation is clear as day. But lying is without consequences if people are dumb or lethargic enough, it seems. This will get very interesting.
- thiht 2y agoFunny how Russia is absent from the list
- pembrook 2y agoCurrent US sanctions on Russia make trade a moot point, that’s why.
- nicce 2y agoThere is still more trade with Russia than many countries in the list. Even Syria and Iran got tariffs.
- tashbarg 2y agoTotal trade with Russia in 2024: $3.5bn Total trade with Ukraine in 2024: $2.9bn https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/europe-middle-east/russia-and-eurasia https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/europe-middle-east/russia... So, Ukraine will get an exemption, too, right? Because their trade is even a mooter point, right? Right?!
- pembrook 2y agoThis is down from $23B in 2019, and is basically just fertilizer and minerals used to make fertilizer. Fertilizer is not sanctioned due to the fact it’s needed for food security in the EU (surprise suprise, the EU is not just insecure domestically in terms of military and energy and technology, but also in terms of fertilizers needed to grow food, fantastic governance they have over there…leaving potash mining or nat gas extraction to other countries does look good for those domestic net zero calculations though!).
- tashbarg 2y agoThis reply makes the mootest point of all the moot points.
- Towaway69 2y agoEU peace is assured by inter-locking trade within the block. Countries within the EU are gently encouraged to trade essential goods with one another instead of producing them themselves. This policy dates back to the end of WW2 as an attempt to prevent one country getting too aggressive and hence starting another war. Since the fall of the wall, Russia was seen as a legitimate trading partner for the block and, in the long term (just as Türkiye), as member of the block. Hence sourcing fertiliser from Russia was taken to be a strategic positive since it tired Russia to Europe.
- bjackman 2y agohttps://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mercantilism https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mercantilism
- spacechild1 2y agoThere is a dedicated article in an Austrian newspaper about that: https://www.derstandard.at/story/3000000264129/das-verrueckteste-an-trumps-zoellen-ist-die-methode-wie-er-zu-seinen-zahlen-kommt https://www.derstandard.at/story/3000000264129/das-verrueckt... They essentially call it batshit crazy.
- aurareturn 2y agoAre we factoring in digital/service trades? For example, Netflix is in Vietnam. There are many Netflix subscribers in Vietnam. Does that get factored into the trade deficit? Or is it only physical goods that get factored in? Vietnam uses many US services such as Microsoft Office, Netflix, ChatGPT, Facebook ads, etc. This is revenue that directly go into the pockets of American companies.
- imadethis 2y agoNo services, only goods. This is according to @JamesSurowiecki on Twitter, one of the first to reverse engineer the equation for how they’re coming up with the numbers. So Office, Netflix, etc wouldn’t count against the deficit.
- aurareturn 2y agoThis is where the calculation is extremely unfair to a country like Vietnam. They export low value physical goods and import high value services like ChatGPT, engineering consultations, etc. They're getting screwed by this tariff plan. Any tariff based on trade deficit needs to account for services.
- amarshall 2y agoWell the U.S. gets screwed too, the admin just doesn’t realize it.
- rtkwe 2y agoYou shouldn't put tariffs based on deficits period because it's a brain dead way to think about international trade. The whole idea is flawed from the jump so there's no way to make it rational, it's inherently irrational.
- macinjosh 2y agoNo it doesn't. Trump's whole issue here isn't making more money for the federal government. His issue is that the American economy no longer works for you if you are a blue collar worker. The services we export are performed largely by white collar, college educated people. A good number of whom are here on H1-B visas. What service can an unemployed factory worker export to Vietnam? We have to end globalization of industry or wealth inequality will just continue to spiral.
- jorge-d 2y agoIt's even worse, they literally got their formula from a llm model (probably Grok?) => https://bsky.app/profile/dansinker.com/post/3llunnyfeoj2v https://bsky.app/profile/dansinker.com/post/3llunnyfeoj2v "To calculate reciprocal tariffs, import and export data from the U.S. Census Bureau for 2024. Parameter values for ε and φ were selected. The price elasticity of import demand, ε, was set at 4. Recent evidence suggests the elasticity is near 2 in the long run (Boehm et al., 2023), but estimates of the elasticity vary. To be conservative, studies that find higher elasticities near 3-4 were drawn on. The elasticity of import prices with respect to tariffs, φ, is 0.25."[0] [0] https://ustr.gov/issue-areas/reciprocal-tariff-calculations https://ustr.gov/issue-areas/reciprocal-tariff-calculations
- cbolton 2y agoDo I understand this right: The evidence that they took it from a LLM is that all LLMs give the same answer and this answer describes what they did? By that logic, it looks like Pythagoras got his theorem from an LLM...
- sussmannbaka 2y agoIf ChatGPT was available back then, sure.
- garfield_light 2y agoIt explains why they singled out Reunion from France, it has a separate ccTLD. That type of mistake is the kind a LLM would do, not a human... I'm convinced. this is fucking crazy.
- nonethewiser 2y ago>It explains why they singled out Reunion from France, it has a separate ccTLD It also has a separate country abbreviation (RE). You know, like you'd see on an address. The thing that tells you where something, like a good imported in to the United States, is coming from. This is is why it has a separate ccTLD by the way. This blue sky thread is just an incredible example of motivated reasoning.
- DanielVZ 2y agoDoes this mean that software worldwide gets a boon since: 1. It’s not affected by these tariffs 2. It wasn’t used as a basis for the calculation
- rbetts 2y agoIt seems more likely that the EU will retaliate by taxing (or prohibiting) US services.
- dumbledoren 2y agoThe Eu will take care of that by slapping taxes/tariffs or regulations, and the rest of the world will also do the same. Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.
- hartator 2y agoWhat’s the actual tariffs other countries are charging the US then?
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- jccalhoun 2y agoInteresting. While I think these tariffs are a bad idea, I'm not qualified to fully pass judgement. However, knowing Trump, when I saw the numbers I instantly suspected they would be wrong.
- KETpXDDzR 2y agoHere's the official source for the calculation: [0]. Also, there are some hints this might be from a LLM [1]. And an official statement that it's about trade imbalances and not reciproc tarrifs [2]. And they ask the affected country to "not retaliate" [3]. IMHO Trump tries to lead the US like he managed his businesses. And here I'd like to refer to the three casinos he owned that are now insolvent [4]. [0] https://universeodon.com/@cryptadamist/114272481124239587 https://universeodon.com/@cryptadamist/114272481124239587 [1] https://universeodon.com/@henryk@chaos.social/114273132492819973 https://universeodon.com/@henryk@chaos.social/11427313249281... [2] https://ustr.gov/issue-areas/reciprocal-tariff-calculations https://ustr.gov/issue-areas/reciprocal-tariff-calculations [3] https://edition.cnn.com/2025/04/02/business/liberation-day-trump-tariffs/index.html https://edition.cnn.com/2025/04/02/business/liberation-day-t... [4] https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/12/nyregion/donald-trump-atlantic-city.html https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/12/nyregion/donald-trump-atl...