12 ms·

Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family

273 points by perihelions 2y ago

kgeist 2y ago
It's interesting that everywhere, the government forces simply abandoned their posts, and none of Syria's allies appear to be willing to intervene in any way. Maybe there's something else going on we don't know yet.
- yyuugg 2y ago
  Maybe if your leader is a dictator and it looks like you are losing, defecting might be a better option than fighting to the death for a leader who doesn't care about you.
  - ethereal-haze 2y ago
    Most of the Syrian army was made up of people forced to be there or to be imprisoned ~ A lot where changing clothes in the middle of the street.
    - yyuugg 2y ago
      Exactly what I'm saying!
- taspeotis 2y ago
  Russia might have helped out if their military wasn’t busy elsewhere?
- afterburner 2y ago
  Syria's allies have been spending the last year getting thrashed. (Russia, Iran, Hizbollah)
  - ethereal-haze 2y ago
    The regime's allies* The majority of the Syrian people opposed the ruthless dictator and their allies.
- baserev 2y ago
  [flagged]
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
  - kdmtctl 2y ago
    A little bit exaggerated. Nothing really happened yet.
    - inglor_cz 2y ago
      The only Near East regime that served as a reliable Russian proxy and military base just collapsed. That's not "nothing". Russian operations in Africa will be seriously complicated by the loss of Syria as a mid-point.
      - teractiveodular 2y ago
        To underline, Syria was Russia's only ally, airbase and warm water port in the region. They have no feasible alternatives.
      - kdmtctl 2y ago
        There are lot more said in the comment I answered. Nothing happened for China, to be precise. A lot of wishful thinking only.
  - rswail 2y ago
    Musk sells more Teslas and makes more batteries in China than everywhere else except US. So thinking that Trump will be "anti-China" is wishful thinking. Last time, China didn't suffer, but US farmers had to be bailed out. Russia is the bad actor here, and Trump has never had a bad word to say about Putin. Oh and the BRICS trying to get off the USD is just wishful thinking as well. Ask Russia what its like trying to sell oil to India and getting paid in INR. Russia is already a vassal state to either CN or IN, they'll fight over the resources.
- throwup238 2y ago
  > Maybe there's something else going on we don't know yet. We know whats going on, the world was just focused elsewhere when this all started and suddenly spiraled. Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham launched a run of the mill offensive on November 27 in retaliation to SAA attacks and it turned out to be so successful that the Kurdish SDF launched its own offensive on November 29 to take advantage of the situation. Within a week almost every rebel group joined in, the SAA lines of defense broke down, and Russian/Iranian/Hezbollah support disintegrated and evacuated from the country. I wouldn’t be surprised if some intelligence agencies greased the wheels here but this was mostly dominoes suddenly falling thanks to conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East sapping military resources and a single spark lighting the powder keg.
  - rswail 2y ago
    Plus Hezbollah has been beheaded and Iran attacked by Israel and Russia over-extended by its invasion of Ukraine. Turkey has also been involved in this because they don't want the Kurds to have a state, but HTS seems to have managed to form a coalition for now. There was also reports of US strafing attacks on columns of some SAA forces (and possibly IRGC) but that seems to have disappeared in the rapid events. The existing government is trying to stay relevant, the current PM is in Damascus and is promising to work with whoever forms the new leadership. That might just be because he didn't escape and wants to stay out of jail. Israel (and Russia) have been rumoured to have tried to destroy all the stocks of chemical and other weapons. Russia will be desperate to hang on to its naval base at Tartus, but that seems to be wishful thinking, but maybe it can make a deal.
    - tzs 2y ago
      > Russia will be desperate to hang on to its naval base at Tartus, but that seems to be wishful thinking, but maybe it can make a deal Do they actually still need it? A quick bit of Googling suggests that the main thing they use it for is supplying arms to Syria, which presumably they will no longer need to do.
      - nradov 2y ago
- skybrian 2y ago
  I’m reminded of how people in Afghanistan had the reputation of switching sides pretty easily.
  - rswail 2y ago
    Except Syria has a completely different history and population, being Arab, is nothing like Afghani people. Assad was an evil dictator and his father before him, but Syria had a stable government and bureaucracy etc until the civil war. It was a functioning state. There are sects and regional populations in Syria, the Kurds, Alawites (Assad's group), Sunni, Christian. It's more that they will have to accommodate the regional and religious groups in their government.
- coffeebeqn 2y ago
  I’m very interested in reading the book but it certainly seems like Russia and Iran propped up a zombie admin that is actually totally hollow when push comes to shove and the benefactors are busy elsewhere
- paxys 2y ago
  I'm guessing the government ran out of money and stopped paying them.
- TrackerFF 2y ago
  I think the timeline of failures was something like this: 1. Russia, being too entrenched in Ukraine, wanted some global focus shifted away from Ukraine, and managed to get Hamas (probably via Iran) to attack Israel last October. This would predictably become a very hot issue - especially in the US - and make the world "forget" Ukraine. There's been a lot of writing that the support for the Ukraine war will only last as long as there's mainstream focus on it, and that no new wars pop up. 2. The Gaza plan failed. Israel attacks Hezbollah and Iran, which means neither of those can help Syria. The retaliation from Israel was too strong. 3. Vital support from Russia, Iran, Hezbollah is now severely limited. And that's pretty much that. The rebels in Syria saw their opportunity, and seized it. What's more, is that Syria has long been an important supply route for Iran and Hezbollah. With rebel control, which is anti-Iran and anti-Hezbollah, this will have much wider-reaching impact.
  - dralley 2y ago
    Hamas attacked Israel the day after the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur war. While the October 7th attack may have benefitted Russia indirectly (temporarily at least), it's not particularly likely that Russia played any role in making it happen.
    - dismalaf 2y ago
      There's a lot of evidence that Russia was probably involved in Oct 7. They're certainly cozy with Hamas... https://www.memri.org/reports/hamas-visits-its-closest-friend-moscow-questions-surround-russias-knowledge-involvement https://www.memri.org/reports/hamas-visits-its-closest-frien...
      - dralley 2y ago
        There's nothing in there that particularly suggests that they promted the attack. But of course they capitalized as best they could off of the distraction.
        deleted 2y ago
        [deleted]
joejohnson 2y ago
[flagged]
- harimau777 2y ago
  I think that perhaps the takeaway should be that things are more complicated than what terms like "terrorist" imply.
  - joejohnson 2y ago
    Terrorist is what the media calls them when they’re bad. But once they start receiving US funding again they become rebels.
- yyuugg 2y ago
  The U.S. has funded terrorist organizations since forever. You think this is novel?
- pugio 2y ago
  I haven't seen any indication that Israel plans on invading Syria, nor can I see a particular reason for them doing so.
  - davidgay 2y ago
    Hmm - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golan_Heights https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golan_Heights ? [Not that I'd take this as having any new impact on the current situation, but...]
    - teractiveodular 2y ago
      The Golan is firmly under Israeli control already and has been for half a century, they don't need to "invade" it anymore.
    - grumple 2y ago
      Yes, they annexed that after the last war with Syria. Do you think the US is going to abandon the southwest US back to Mexican cartels, or the UK will abandon Wales, or any of these other countries will abandon territory they won in war long ago?
mongol 2y ago
Who are likely to control Syria now? Will Syria become an islamic state?
- csomar 2y ago
  Still too early to tell. My guess is that this will degenerate into a new war between the friends who allied against Assad. So some mutant like ISIS will probably prop up.
- postingawayonhn 2y ago
  I think there is a good chance that reasonably fair elections get held. The government will likely take a moderate Islamic tone, with other religious groups coexisting. For now all the main players seem fairly chill.
  - kgeist 2y ago
    I think it's too good to be true that after 13 years of civil war fought by multiple factions, suddenly everyone becomes friends with each other and then they happily live thereafter in a democratic utopia. We can expect a string of coups as various groups attempt to seize power.
- otherme123 2y ago
  If we look at what happened in Tunisia or Libya after they got rid of their secular dictators (Gadaffi an Ben Ali), it doesn't have to be that way. They were also fears of them becoming islamic states, yet they didn't. If we look at Egypt, they could become again a dictatorship.
  - dyauspitr 2y ago
    Libya is pretty much an Islamist and borderline slaver nation now. It’s much, much worse than it was under gaddafi. Tunisia is the only place the Arab spring might have been tentatively “successful”.
    - 2y ago
TheAlchemist 2y ago
I'm not really aware of what's going on in Syria, and not really sure who's worse - Assad or the rebels, but it seems clear that Iran & Russia, which were main backers of Assad regime, appears extremely weak. That's understandable for Iran which may want to avoid to overextend itself following the recent events, but it's hard to comprehend why Russia was unable to do anything at all. In any case, it seems like there are several very important events happening recently that may reshape the world for the years to come.
- space_fountain 2y ago
  Russia is fighting a war of attrition in Ukraine, I think they might have worried about over extending too or just logistically been unable to devote significant resources
- sydd 2y ago
  Russia is putting everything it has to the Ukrainian front since 2.5 years and signs of exhaustion are clearly visible. They have lived up their Soviet tank reserves, are offering astronomical amounts of money for soldiers, are using north Korean ammunition, huge inflation etc
  - TheAlchemist 2y ago
    That's what I'm thinking too. But if that's true, it means Ukraine has a real fighting chance to put them on their knees. In any case, this seems like a major loss for Russia.
    - oldpersonintx 2y ago
      Ukraine is also exhausted its time for America to stop pushing Ukrainians into the firing line
      - scott_w 2y ago
        [flagged]
ggm 2y ago
Much though I want to view this as good news I keep finding myself steelmanning that it's actually bad news * destabilising a region already in flames * replacing a secular evil government by.. jihadists in a loose coalition. WCGW? * Russia used port and airfields to maintain a presence in the Med and for nefarious purposes in Africa. What do they do now, to replace them because I doubt "nothing" is the answer. * does Iran feel a need to do "stupid things" now to prop up regional Shia politics? * could this be bad for Ukraine? * how will Turkey negotiate with this facing the pkk and Kurdish nationalism?
- yyuugg 2y ago
  I don't know that I agree with this characterization. Was Assad particularly stable? Was he able to prevent rebel groups effectively? HTS of today might be different from HTS of the past, but that's very much could be just their propaganda. We'll see. Given "guaranteed evil" vs "probably evil" I'd probably prefer the lesser evil. I very much suspect Russia is fully focused on Ukraine and cannot or will not project force in the region. Iran has been remarkably restrained over the past little while, and I suspect they want to keep things cool and not hot.
  - inglor_cz 2y ago
    "Was Assad particularly stable?" Looking at the speed with which the Syrian military now unraveled, the government was an empty shell of its former self. Russia was in no position to intervene. First, the development was too quick. Second, the best units are on the Ukrainian front and redeploying them would certainly inspire the Ukrainian General Staff to probe the Russian defenses. Third, the Russian general (Kisel) tasked with leading the Syrian detachment was/is an incapable commander, sent there as a punishment. Russia cannot fight two wars at once.
- oldpersonintx 2y ago
  [dead]
- throwup238 2y ago
  Assad wasn’t really a stabilizing force holding back worse players, he was a desperate despot just barely holding on to power thanks to a proxy war. Now the rest of the parties have a real chance to establishing a governing coalition. Syria has always been relatively secular and the rhetoric coming from the rebel side is in marked contrast to the usual pattern in the region. The most extremist group involved HTS has been surpsingly moderate in its stewardship of the Idlib governate. There are reasons to interpret this as very good news: Iran and Russia no longer have enough resources to project power. Even with a warm water port and strategic position in the Mediterranean at stake, they just can’t prop up the regime anymore. I can’t help but think that two fewer regional powers meddling in Syrian affairs is nothing but a stabilizing force. Almost seven million Syrian refugees might have the chance to return home and rebuild now. That’s great news.
poopsmithe 2y ago
Despite reading it 5 times, I fail to understand the meaning of the title, "Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family"
- imron 2y ago
  The Syrian government has fallen. This brings an end to the reign of the Assad family who have ruled there for 50 years.
- tptacek 2y ago
  The Syrian government has fallen. It no longer governs Syria. For 50 years, the Syrian government has been controlled by the Assad family. The Assad family controls the governance of Syria no more.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- taspeotis 2y ago
  Is our children learning?
- bmacho 2y ago
  Why is this so downvoted, especially with all the replies claiming that it is correct and understandable (title) English? The original title makes more sense: > Syrian government falls in stunning end to 50-year rule of Assad family however I am not entirely sure about that one either.
- amenhotep 2y ago
  This is a newspaper headlineism more than it is regular English. [Thing happens] in [description of thing]
samaltmanfried 2y ago
[flagged]
- pizza 2y ago
  If true, that reminds me a lot of "Anti-Soviet Warrior puts his Army on the Road"
- doshaa 2y ago
  This is extremely reductive, the asaad regime ( current and previous ) had to go, they've caused immense pain to syrians since the 80s.. The idea that this is some consorted effort by global hegemony to topple them ignores the effort of the rebels themselves, and how much the war in ukraine have costed russia..
  - bloomingkales 2y ago
    Syria became a proxy flexing ground for Russia. We are about to enter negotiations on a major war. We have all kinds of money and rockets moving around the world in deliberate subversive ways.
  - homebrewer 2y ago
    > XYZ just had to go Yes, this worked out so well in the past. You people will definitely never learn. I honestly dread the times when your diplomats turn their gazes on my country.
    - nozzlegear 2y ago
      Have the leaders of your country recently used chemical weapons on women and children, like Assad had? If not you're probably safe.
    - deleted 2y ago
      [deleted]
    - arp242 2y ago
      All of started with protests from Syrian people back in 2011. Assad responded with murder. This then all escalated in the civil war. There isn't some sort of foreign forced regime change going on here.
hackandthink 2y ago
Nassim Taleb (in Lebanon not far from Homs right now): "The strangest thing is that after 14 years of war, the Syrian rebels walked into the entire country faster than if they were on a tourist sightseeing tour. Except at the beginning, there was no fighting." (from his X Account)
- guerrilla 2y ago
  That could only be strange for him if he doesn't understand the structure of the war or he hasn't been following current events. Assad was only able to take back Syria with air support from Russia, ground support from Hezbollah and re-enforcement by Iran and other Iranian aligned groups in Syria. Russia is busy and drained of resources because of its misadventure in Ukraine, Hezbollah is reeling from it's shocking loss to Israel while Israel has been targeting Hezbollah and anything vaguely tainted by Iran in Syria for years now. Iran itself is being very careful with that it's doing after losing so much of the long-term strategic positioning it invested in. All of that, that was what was holding back opposition. SAA couldn't have done it in the first place without that support and that support later became security while SAA had other things to do. When it was weakened, the opportunity began to exist. My personal opinion is that it's been a while since that security actually existed and due to all of the above mentioned problems, it's been a bluff for longer than it has seemed. When the Aleppo lines collapsed, HTS figured this out and acted swiftly to take advantage of that fact. SDF and the southern front joined in when they say they were having so much success. Taleb should know better, or not be commenting. It makes it sound like a conspiracy theory or something.
  - MoreMoore 2y ago
    > That could only be strange for him if he doesn't understand the structure of the war or he hasn't been following current events. Maybe he doesn't. There's nothing wrong with that. It feels surreal to me and like it came out of nowhere. I'm also sort of frustrated that none of the coverage or comments I see go into how this happened or what lead to it. Nobody is trying to figure out or explain what's actually going on and why now.
phplovesong 2y ago
This is a huge blow for the russian regime. Things are really starting to look bad over there. We might see a second collapse in 2026. Putin has destroyed a country.
hello_computer 2y ago
[flagged]
csomar 2y ago
[flagged]
- nakedrobot2 2y ago
  ah, only your opinion is valid?
- teractiveodular 2y ago
  While I'm a firm atheist, Assad jettisoned all pretense of Baathist/secular ideology a decade if not longer ago in favor of simply doing whatever it takes to stay in power. The atrocities perpetrated by Assad's regime were far larger in scale than anything that ISIS ever managed, half a million people (on all sides) have died since 2013.
- inglor_cz 2y ago
  Is a secular dictatorship that tortures its opponents any better than a theocracy that tortures its opponents? If your balls are getting crushed by the secret police, does it really matter if they do so in the name of Allah or Assad? I am as secular as they come, but I see no difference here. The root problem for me is the tyranny itself, and not its particular ideological flavor.
  - lazide 2y ago
    Hmm, at least Assad’s secret police would leave you with the belief you’d be going to heaven/martyring yourself.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- wiseowise 2y ago
  My opinion is that of my ex-colleague who had to flight Syria and has some strong words about Assad. There’s no “tyranny for good reason”.
- rwyinuse 2y ago
  Yeah, I bet people of Aleppo really will really miss those secular bombs landing on them, just as political prisoners will miss those secular beatings.
asimpletune 2y ago
What are the chances the Kurds will get their own land out of this?
- teractiveodular 2y ago
  The best case is that northern parts of Syria end up like Iraqi Kurdistan, where they will de facto control a slice of the country. However, Turkey to the north is really not keen on the Kurds having any territory, so they'll do whatever they can to frustrate this.
  - AngaraliTurk 2y ago
    The Iraqi Kurdistan (KRG) you mention has friendly relations with Turkey.
    - teractiveodular 2y ago
      The main Syrian Kurdish militia has very unfriendly relations with Turkey. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Defense_Units https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Defense_Units
      - AngaraliTurk 2y ago
        It was a reply to your comment: > However, Turkey to the north is really not keen on the Kurds having any territory, so they'll do whatever they can to frustrate this. It's not true that Turkey is not keen on the Kurds having any territory because their friendly relations with KRG is a counter example.
  - throw0101d 2y ago
    > However, Turkey to the north is really not keen on the Kurds having any territory, so they'll do whatever they can to frustrate this. Could it work that if the Kurds have their own 'official' region (either country, or province with-in another country) Turkey (Türkiye) would simply throw money at people to move to it? If there aren't any Kurds living with Turkey's borders, would that be a win for Turkey?
InfiniteVortex 2y ago
I’m shocked that the ruling dynasty fell as quickly as it did, along with the military being ineffective and unwilling to stop the rebels given how long the civil war has been going on for. Incredible.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- ssijak 2y ago
  Looks similar to USA withdrawal from Afghanistan. When big power withdrew support, whoever they were protecting just got run over in a week. Same here.
- 627467 2y ago
  Is a 14 years long process (the Syrian civil war) quick? Just Wikipedia the civil war article. Did people forget about ISIS uprising as well? Look at the map: the regime haven't controlled most of the territory since the start of the civil war. The regime has become a failed state struggling to make ends meet.
- guilhas 2y ago
  In the end they couldn't alone keep fighting Al-Qaeda(rebranded) and ISIS, supported by USA, Turkey and Israel
riskyingo 2y ago
[flagged]
- Ylpertnodi 2y ago
  My car-to-work radio is set to a rock-based station. Occasionally they will play a(n overtly) pop song, or two. It's a great station (for me, as the infrequent "not of this genre" surprise keeps me interested. The occasional not-tech story on HN is equally welcome for myself, as the level of comments, and opinions are so much 'higher' than other places. There's always some comment/s that allow me to appreciate another pov, without getting too snarky.
  - riskyingo 2y ago
    Weird, there are places where political news can be discussed. You feel you need a variety, others might feel rightfully that it should stick to its purpose. Coming back to analogies, I don't send memes to work chats.
    - reducesuffering 2y ago
      Ignore the thread then? There's 100 others
      - riskyingo 2y ago
        Thanks, I didn't know I could just do that.
- tpm 2y ago
  Anyway, the success of the rebels is to a degree due to drones, to which Assad's forces didn't have an answer.
20kleagues 2y ago
I would love to hear what the Syrian hacker news community has to say about this. I’m reading so many comments here but not sure how many are from actual Syrians who probably have a deeper understanding and hope/fears about what comes next.
- someotherperson 2y ago
  “Actual Syrians” isn’t a thing for this — it’s like wanting to hear from ‘actual Americans’ what they thought of the US election. Depending on the ethnicity, religion and politics of those Syrians you’ll get wildly different views.
  - j_maffe 2y ago
    Most Syrians I know are celebrating. I could have a biased demographic tho.
    - philistine 2y ago
      Even if the situation get worse, there is definitely cause to celebrate one less player on the very complicated board that is the civil war.
    - CuriousCosmic 2y ago
      Statistically most would be. Assad's regime were Shiites (~13% of the population) and the HTS are Sunni (74% of the population). This doesn't necessarily mean they are better but at the very least of two very theistic groups, the latter better represents the population than the former. And of course while this means Russia and Assad are finally out of the equation, the governments in North and East Syria aren't exactly stoked about the HTS' explosive growth in power.
  - 20kleagues 2y ago
    And those different (or similar) views are what would be important and what I would be interested to read. Because the views of the people from that land are what matter the most during these events.
theLegionWithin 2y ago
Assad was backed by Iran & Iran has been bad news for that region for some decades. the new coalition is backed by Turkey, and since they share a border it makes a lot more sense than Iran ever did. way too early to say much more right now. next few weeks/months should be interesting though.
- guerrilla 2y ago
  This is an absurd oversimplification. Turkey backs two powerful factions. Another powerful faction is one that Turkey wants to eliminate permanently. A third powerful faction is supported by the US, Jordan and others. Then you have the fact that a lot of who Turkey helped are elite salafists who would gladly go to war with them if they had the power to do so.
  - Apocryphon 2y ago
    For reference, can you please name the four or so factions you’re referring to?
    - guerrilla 2y ago
      HTS, SNA, Southern Front and SDF. This is an intentional oversimplification but illustrates the point I wanted to make with broad strokes.
Caius-Cosades 2y ago
Rebel? How about we just call them for what they are, Turkish proxies in the north and US proxies in the east.
- riskyingo 2y ago
  [flagged]
- GordonS 2y ago
  These "moderate rebels" are literally Al Qaeda and ISIS, but western media is manufacturing consent for them in real-time: [0] https://x.com/AlanRMacLeod/status/1865009325669818430?t=r-Pr7PaKXAN46IcEhsEMoQ https://x.com/AlanRMacLeod/status/1865009325669818430?t=r-Pr... I'd also note that HTS is a proscribed terror organisation in the UK - yet nobody is having their doors kicked in for supporting them, in stark contrast to those publishing the truth about Israel, Palestine and Lebanon.
  - reducesuffering 2y ago
    No such "western media manufacturing consent" here. Everyone is unsure of the future. Assad is practically universally hated, Idlib was been under HTS governance, relatively moderate for the region, for the past 4 years. The past Al-Qaeda ties are frequently noted. Few bigger western voices than the National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan: "The group at the vanguard of this rebel advance, HTS, is actually a terrorist organization designated by the United States. So we have real concerns about the designs and objectives of that organization. At the same time, of course, we don’t cry over the fact that the Assad government, backed by Russia, Iran and Hezbollah, are facing certain kinds of pressure. So it’s a complicated situation.”
  - arp242 2y ago
    'Moderate' is in quotes. The full article[1] mentions the al-Qaeda and IS links, and expresses doubt over the 'moderate' image (which is why it's in quotes). That tweet is a misrepresentation. Never mind the ranting about "Israeli spies". [1]: https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/the-moderate-jihadist-leader-sweeping-through-syria-while-telling-troops-not-to-frighten-children/ar-AA1v04JX https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/the-moderate-jihadist-l...
ein0p 2y ago
It is a bit surreal to read people cheering for islamist head choppers who overthrew a secular government. Remember this 10 years from now when these same head choppers blow something up in NYC. The fundamental invariant of governance stands undefeated: religious head choppers, whether they are on "our side" or not, are always worse in the long run than the secular governments. See the "freedom fighter" Osama Bin Laden for a particularly vivid example.
- ethereal-haze 2y ago
  You obviously haven’t read up on the atrocities done by this so called “secular government”
- stefantalpalaru 2y ago
  [dead]
- Pikamander2 2y ago
  I don't think people are cheering for the Islamists so much as they are celebrating the collapse of the Assad family's brutal half-century dictatorship. Syria is a place where optimism goes to die, but this is the first time in generations that Syria has been given a chance to rebuild itself, so there's at least a tiny glimmer of hope.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- TiredOfLife 2y ago
  If choice is between dying from head chopping or a chemical attack I choose head chopping.
  - ein0p 2y ago
    "Chemical attack" was a lie, BTW. That came out in OPCW report shortly thereafter. You do need to read up on it. Same as "Iraqi WMDs" or "babies on bayonets" etc, a casus belli to give another few hundred billion to US MIC. But even if we assume that it wasn't, for the sake of argument, those "chemical weapons", if they ever existed, are in the hands of literal ISIS now.
vFunct 2y ago
Great. So when are the elections? There are going to be elections, right?
- postsantum 2y ago
  Sorry, but syrian elections is a pro-russian dogwhistle according to disinformation experts
- whatever1 2y ago
  Elections are not a silver bullet. Many tyrannical regimes hold elections, yet the supreme leader always wins.
- 627467 2y ago
  Look at Lebanon next door, they have elections, constitutional consensus to power share among sect diverse population. Syrian is just a large Lebanon. Doubt elections are the solution
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
paxys 2y ago
More than anything this shows how terrible a shape Russia and Iran are in. A 15 year long proxy war ended with a whimper.
- Timber-6539 2y ago
  Your logic posits that the good guys lost i.e Russia & Iran, supposedly fighting terrorists in Syria.
  - echoangle 2y ago
    How do you read that from the comment?
    - Timber-6539 2y ago
      It's clear to me given the description of the protagonists involved on this topic.
      - jncfhnb 2y ago
        Can you explain your logic
      - shepherdjerred 2y ago
        That comment was completely neutral
    - humanlity 2y ago
      I believe that his opinion is that HTS originated from ISIS.
  - SAI_Peregrinus 2y ago
    That doesn't mean the good guys lost, just that one set of bad guys lost and another won. As usual.
    - 2y ago
nabla9 2y ago
Assad dynasty was just a symptom of the problems in Syria. Syria is a Sunni majority country. During the Assad dynasty Alawite minority (population 2-3 million) was the ruling ethnic class in Syria. They have their own sect of Islam (Alawism). Alawites were stuck with Assad family even if they came from competing factions. If Assad falls, they get massacred. The insurgents fight under the flag of Syrian National Army, backed by Turkey, but the fighting has been mostly led by jihadi group Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS).
maxglute 2y ago
Interesting times intensifies.
octopusRex 2y ago
It's a place where there's no good guys to root for. I fear for its citizens, and especially for women.
- halJordan 2y ago
  [flagged]
  - octopusRex 2y ago
    I was thinking of the patriarchy and oppression.
- talldayo 2y ago
  The "good guys" are the citizens, who were unjustly imprisoned for protesting against a blatantly oppressive government. These prisoners have been released by the rebels, which is a "good" enough cause that people can celebrate for the rest of the week.
charlieyu1 2y ago
Good and bad news. Ukrainian sacrifices lead to liberation of Syria. I guess you can’t have everything good. Chinese sacrifices in 1989 lead to collapse of USSR after all
VoodooJuJu 2y ago
If you compare the Assad regime to your own western country, you'd think what happened here was a good thing. But that's the wrong comparison to make. The rosier Dutch government won't be taking over control here. The rebels will be. And if you compare the Assad regime to the actual alternative, the rebels, you'll instead realize: the hard times have only just begun [1]. [1] https://medium.com/opacity/the-syrian-war-condensed-a-more-rigorous-way-to-look-at-the-conflict-f841404c3b1d https://medium.com/opacity/the-syrian-war-condensed-a-more-r...
malshe 2y ago
This analysis helped me understand the situation better: https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/how-to-think-about-the-fall-of-assad https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/how-to-think-about-the-...
- wanderingbit 2y ago
  That was helpful and seemed balanced, but I am not knowledgeable enough to know what it left out. thank you nonetheless.
sincerecook 2y ago
Why are we cheering this? Is it because Russia supported Assad and now Russia has been defeated? Because we love Ukraine right? Also, Assad and Russia don't like LGBT persons? Can someone spell it out for me in plain words please, I'm on the spectrum.
- xenospn 2y ago
  The Assad family ruled Syria with an iron fist for decades. They imprisoned, bombed and killed hundreds of thousands of their own people.
  - sincerecook 2y ago
    OK, and the new guys are good? They are going to make a western democracy there?
mahirsaid 2y ago
Biggest strategy for any government is not to resolve a conflict immediate but to post pone a the conflict for a better time. "Well come up with a solution later but for now slow down or stop". Conflict is essential for some of these countries it's part of how they change and form to something else. We can relate in the U.S. Becuase we have a different history and different threats. But if history tells us anything we've already had our conflicts and civil wars that brought us to today. As you can see the country Is yet again confused with what it wants. Regulations are crippling companies and the very sectors that made America what it is or used to be. So we have our fair share of problems but for now we'll deal with It
akmittal 2y ago
This post about Syria has more Russia vs Ukraine comments than Syria. Can anyone explain which one is the bad side?
joemazerino 2y ago
Syria successfully fought against ISIS and Al-Qaeda for decades. It will now be turned into another dreary caliphate.
stiltzkin 2y ago
[dead]
Thuggery 2y ago
50 years is honestly not that long. When you look at historical dynasties even the shorter ones tend to be ~100 years, if they don't immediately implode. That was a lot of suffering and chaos of what's actually a fairly trifling dynasty in the grand scheme of things.
hulitu 2y ago
[flagged]
tclover 2y ago
Syrians will regret this.

273 points by perihelions 2y ago

It's interesting that everywhere, the government forces simply abandoned their posts, and none of Syria's allies appear to be willing to intervene in any way. Maybe there's something else going on we don't know yet.

yyuugg 2y ago
Maybe if your leader is a dictator and it looks like you are losing, defecting might be a better option than fighting to the death for a leader who doesn't care about you.
- ethereal-haze 2y ago
  Most of the Syrian army was made up of people forced to be there or to be imprisoned ~ A lot where changing clothes in the middle of the street.
  - yyuugg 2y ago
    Exactly what I'm saying!
taspeotis 2y ago
Russia might have helped out if their military wasn’t busy elsewhere?
afterburner 2y ago
Syria's allies have been spending the last year getting thrashed. (Russia, Iran, Hizbollah)
- ethereal-haze 2y ago
  The regime's allies* The majority of the Syrian people opposed the ruthless dictator and their allies.
baserev 2y ago
[flagged]
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- kdmtctl 2y ago
  A little bit exaggerated. Nothing really happened yet.
  - inglor_cz 2y ago
    The only Near East regime that served as a reliable Russian proxy and military base just collapsed. That's not "nothing". Russian operations in Africa will be seriously complicated by the loss of Syria as a mid-point.
    - teractiveodular 2y ago
      To underline, Syria was Russia's only ally, airbase and warm water port in the region. They have no feasible alternatives.
    - kdmtctl 2y ago
      There are lot more said in the comment I answered. Nothing happened for China, to be precise. A lot of wishful thinking only.
- rswail 2y ago
  Musk sells more Teslas and makes more batteries in China than everywhere else except US. So thinking that Trump will be "anti-China" is wishful thinking. Last time, China didn't suffer, but US farmers had to be bailed out. Russia is the bad actor here, and Trump has never had a bad word to say about Putin. Oh and the BRICS trying to get off the USD is just wishful thinking as well. Ask Russia what its like trying to sell oil to India and getting paid in INR. Russia is already a vassal state to either CN or IN, they'll fight over the resources.
throwup238 2y ago
> Maybe there's something else going on we don't know yet. We know whats going on, the world was just focused elsewhere when this all started and suddenly spiraled. Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham launched a run of the mill offensive on November 27 in retaliation to SAA attacks and it turned out to be so successful that the Kurdish SDF launched its own offensive on November 29 to take advantage of the situation. Within a week almost every rebel group joined in, the SAA lines of defense broke down, and Russian/Iranian/Hezbollah support disintegrated and evacuated from the country. I wouldn’t be surprised if some intelligence agencies greased the wheels here but this was mostly dominoes suddenly falling thanks to conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East sapping military resources and a single spark lighting the powder keg.
- rswail 2y ago
  Plus Hezbollah has been beheaded and Iran attacked by Israel and Russia over-extended by its invasion of Ukraine. Turkey has also been involved in this because they don't want the Kurds to have a state, but HTS seems to have managed to form a coalition for now. There was also reports of US strafing attacks on columns of some SAA forces (and possibly IRGC) but that seems to have disappeared in the rapid events. The existing government is trying to stay relevant, the current PM is in Damascus and is promising to work with whoever forms the new leadership. That might just be because he didn't escape and wants to stay out of jail. Israel (and Russia) have been rumoured to have tried to destroy all the stocks of chemical and other weapons. Russia will be desperate to hang on to its naval base at Tartus, but that seems to be wishful thinking, but maybe it can make a deal.
  - tzs 2y ago
    > Russia will be desperate to hang on to its naval base at Tartus, but that seems to be wishful thinking, but maybe it can make a deal Do they actually still need it? A quick bit of Googling suggests that the main thing they use it for is supplying arms to Syria, which presumably they will no longer need to do.
    - nradov 2y ago
skybrian 2y ago
I’m reminded of how people in Afghanistan had the reputation of switching sides pretty easily.
- rswail 2y ago
  Except Syria has a completely different history and population, being Arab, is nothing like Afghani people. Assad was an evil dictator and his father before him, but Syria had a stable government and bureaucracy etc until the civil war. It was a functioning state. There are sects and regional populations in Syria, the Kurds, Alawites (Assad's group), Sunni, Christian. It's more that they will have to accommodate the regional and religious groups in their government.
coffeebeqn 2y ago
I’m very interested in reading the book but it certainly seems like Russia and Iran propped up a zombie admin that is actually totally hollow when push comes to shove and the benefactors are busy elsewhere
paxys 2y ago
I'm guessing the government ran out of money and stopped paying them.
TrackerFF 2y ago
I think the timeline of failures was something like this: 1. Russia, being too entrenched in Ukraine, wanted some global focus shifted away from Ukraine, and managed to get Hamas (probably via Iran) to attack Israel last October. This would predictably become a very hot issue - especially in the US - and make the world "forget" Ukraine. There's been a lot of writing that the support for the Ukraine war will only last as long as there's mainstream focus on it, and that no new wars pop up. 2. The Gaza plan failed. Israel attacks Hezbollah and Iran, which means neither of those can help Syria. The retaliation from Israel was too strong. 3. Vital support from Russia, Iran, Hezbollah is now severely limited. And that's pretty much that. The rebels in Syria saw their opportunity, and seized it. What's more, is that Syria has long been an important supply route for Iran and Hezbollah. With rebel control, which is anti-Iran and anti-Hezbollah, this will have much wider-reaching impact.
- dralley 2y ago
  Hamas attacked Israel the day after the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur war. While the October 7th attack may have benefitted Russia indirectly (temporarily at least), it's not particularly likely that Russia played any role in making it happen.
  - dismalaf 2y ago
    There's a lot of evidence that Russia was probably involved in Oct 7. They're certainly cozy with Hamas... https://www.memri.org/reports/hamas-visits-its-closest-friend-moscow-questions-surround-russias-knowledge-involvement https://www.memri.org/reports/hamas-visits-its-closest-frien...
    - dralley 2y ago
      There's nothing in there that particularly suggests that they promted the attack. But of course they capitalized as best they could off of the distraction.
      - deleted 2y ago
        [deleted]

joejohnson 2y ago

[flagged]

harimau777 2y ago
I think that perhaps the takeaway should be that things are more complicated than what terms like "terrorist" imply.
- joejohnson 2y ago
  Terrorist is what the media calls them when they’re bad. But once they start receiving US funding again they become rebels.
yyuugg 2y ago
The U.S. has funded terrorist organizations since forever. You think this is novel?
pugio 2y ago
I haven't seen any indication that Israel plans on invading Syria, nor can I see a particular reason for them doing so.
- davidgay 2y ago
  Hmm - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golan_Heights https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golan_Heights ? [Not that I'd take this as having any new impact on the current situation, but...]
  - teractiveodular 2y ago
    The Golan is firmly under Israeli control already and has been for half a century, they don't need to "invade" it anymore.
  - grumple 2y ago
    Yes, they annexed that after the last war with Syria. Do you think the US is going to abandon the southwest US back to Mexican cartels, or the UK will abandon Wales, or any of these other countries will abandon territory they won in war long ago?

mongol 2y ago

Who are likely to control Syria now? Will Syria become an islamic state?

csomar 2y ago
Still too early to tell. My guess is that this will degenerate into a new war between the friends who allied against Assad. So some mutant like ISIS will probably prop up.
postingawayonhn 2y ago
I think there is a good chance that reasonably fair elections get held. The government will likely take a moderate Islamic tone, with other religious groups coexisting. For now all the main players seem fairly chill.
- kgeist 2y ago
  I think it's too good to be true that after 13 years of civil war fought by multiple factions, suddenly everyone becomes friends with each other and then they happily live thereafter in a democratic utopia. We can expect a string of coups as various groups attempt to seize power.
otherme123 2y ago
If we look at what happened in Tunisia or Libya after they got rid of their secular dictators (Gadaffi an Ben Ali), it doesn't have to be that way. They were also fears of them becoming islamic states, yet they didn't. If we look at Egypt, they could become again a dictatorship.
- dyauspitr 2y ago
  Libya is pretty much an Islamist and borderline slaver nation now. It’s much, much worse than it was under gaddafi. Tunisia is the only place the Arab spring might have been tentatively “successful”.
  - 2y ago

TheAlchemist 2y ago

I'm not really aware of what's going on in Syria, and not really sure who's worse - Assad or the rebels, but it seems clear that Iran & Russia, which were main backers of Assad regime, appears extremely weak. That's understandable for Iran which may want to avoid to overextend itself following the recent events, but it's hard to comprehend why Russia was unable to do anything at all. In any case, it seems like there are several very important events happening recently that may reshape the world for the years to come.

space_fountain 2y ago
Russia is fighting a war of attrition in Ukraine, I think they might have worried about over extending too or just logistically been unable to devote significant resources
sydd 2y ago
Russia is putting everything it has to the Ukrainian front since 2.5 years and signs of exhaustion are clearly visible. They have lived up their Soviet tank reserves, are offering astronomical amounts of money for soldiers, are using north Korean ammunition, huge inflation etc
- TheAlchemist 2y ago
  That's what I'm thinking too. But if that's true, it means Ukraine has a real fighting chance to put them on their knees. In any case, this seems like a major loss for Russia.
  - oldpersonintx 2y ago
    Ukraine is also exhausted its time for America to stop pushing Ukrainians into the firing line
    - scott_w 2y ago
      [flagged]

ggm 2y ago

Much though I want to view this as good news I keep finding myself steelmanning that it's actually bad news * destabilising a region already in flames * replacing a secular evil government by.. jihadists in a loose coalition. WCGW? * Russia used port and airfields to maintain a presence in the Med and for nefarious purposes in Africa. What do they do now, to replace them because I doubt "nothing" is the answer. * does Iran feel a need to do "stupid things" now to prop up regional Shia politics? * could this be bad for Ukraine? * how will Turkey negotiate with this facing the pkk and Kurdish nationalism?

yyuugg 2y ago
I don't know that I agree with this characterization. Was Assad particularly stable? Was he able to prevent rebel groups effectively? HTS of today might be different from HTS of the past, but that's very much could be just their propaganda. We'll see. Given "guaranteed evil" vs "probably evil" I'd probably prefer the lesser evil. I very much suspect Russia is fully focused on Ukraine and cannot or will not project force in the region. Iran has been remarkably restrained over the past little while, and I suspect they want to keep things cool and not hot.
- inglor_cz 2y ago
  "Was Assad particularly stable?" Looking at the speed with which the Syrian military now unraveled, the government was an empty shell of its former self. Russia was in no position to intervene. First, the development was too quick. Second, the best units are on the Ukrainian front and redeploying them would certainly inspire the Ukrainian General Staff to probe the Russian defenses. Third, the Russian general (Kisel) tasked with leading the Syrian detachment was/is an incapable commander, sent there as a punishment. Russia cannot fight two wars at once.
oldpersonintx 2y ago
[dead]
throwup238 2y ago
Assad wasn’t really a stabilizing force holding back worse players, he was a desperate despot just barely holding on to power thanks to a proxy war. Now the rest of the parties have a real chance to establishing a governing coalition. Syria has always been relatively secular and the rhetoric coming from the rebel side is in marked contrast to the usual pattern in the region. The most extremist group involved HTS has been surpsingly moderate in its stewardship of the Idlib governate. There are reasons to interpret this as very good news: Iran and Russia no longer have enough resources to project power. Even with a warm water port and strategic position in the Mediterranean at stake, they just can’t prop up the regime anymore. I can’t help but think that two fewer regional powers meddling in Syrian affairs is nothing but a stabilizing force. Almost seven million Syrian refugees might have the chance to return home and rebuild now. That’s great news.

poopsmithe 2y ago

Despite reading it 5 times, I fail to understand the meaning of the title, "Syrian government falls in end to 50-year rule of Assad family"

imron 2y ago
The Syrian government has fallen. This brings an end to the reign of the Assad family who have ruled there for 50 years.
tptacek 2y ago
The Syrian government has fallen. It no longer governs Syria. For 50 years, the Syrian government has been controlled by the Assad family. The Assad family controls the governance of Syria no more.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
taspeotis 2y ago
Is our children learning?
bmacho 2y ago
Why is this so downvoted, especially with all the replies claiming that it is correct and understandable (title) English? The original title makes more sense: > Syrian government falls in stunning end to 50-year rule of Assad family however I am not entirely sure about that one either.
amenhotep 2y ago
This is a newspaper headlineism more than it is regular English. [Thing happens] in [description of thing]

samaltmanfried 2y ago

[flagged]

pizza 2y ago
If true, that reminds me a lot of "Anti-Soviet Warrior puts his Army on the Road"
doshaa 2y ago
This is extremely reductive, the asaad regime ( current and previous ) had to go, they've caused immense pain to syrians since the 80s.. The idea that this is some consorted effort by global hegemony to topple them ignores the effort of the rebels themselves, and how much the war in ukraine have costed russia..
- bloomingkales 2y ago
  Syria became a proxy flexing ground for Russia. We are about to enter negotiations on a major war. We have all kinds of money and rockets moving around the world in deliberate subversive ways.
- homebrewer 2y ago
  > XYZ just had to go Yes, this worked out so well in the past. You people will definitely never learn. I honestly dread the times when your diplomats turn their gazes on my country.
  - nozzlegear 2y ago
    Have the leaders of your country recently used chemical weapons on women and children, like Assad had? If not you're probably safe.
  - deleted 2y ago
    [deleted]
  - arp242 2y ago
    All of started with protests from Syrian people back in 2011. Assad responded with murder. This then all escalated in the civil war. There isn't some sort of foreign forced regime change going on here.

hackandthink 2y ago

Nassim Taleb (in Lebanon not far from Homs right now): "The strangest thing is that after 14 years of war, the Syrian rebels walked into the entire country faster than if they were on a tourist sightseeing tour. Except at the beginning, there was no fighting." (from his X Account)

guerrilla 2y ago
That could only be strange for him if he doesn't understand the structure of the war or he hasn't been following current events. Assad was only able to take back Syria with air support from Russia, ground support from Hezbollah and re-enforcement by Iran and other Iranian aligned groups in Syria. Russia is busy and drained of resources because of its misadventure in Ukraine, Hezbollah is reeling from it's shocking loss to Israel while Israel has been targeting Hezbollah and anything vaguely tainted by Iran in Syria for years now. Iran itself is being very careful with that it's doing after losing so much of the long-term strategic positioning it invested in. All of that, that was what was holding back opposition. SAA couldn't have done it in the first place without that support and that support later became security while SAA had other things to do. When it was weakened, the opportunity began to exist. My personal opinion is that it's been a while since that security actually existed and due to all of the above mentioned problems, it's been a bluff for longer than it has seemed. When the Aleppo lines collapsed, HTS figured this out and acted swiftly to take advantage of that fact. SDF and the southern front joined in when they say they were having so much success. Taleb should know better, or not be commenting. It makes it sound like a conspiracy theory or something.
- MoreMoore 2y ago
  > That could only be strange for him if he doesn't understand the structure of the war or he hasn't been following current events. Maybe he doesn't. There's nothing wrong with that. It feels surreal to me and like it came out of nowhere. I'm also sort of frustrated that none of the coverage or comments I see go into how this happened or what lead to it. Nobody is trying to figure out or explain what's actually going on and why now.

phplovesong 2y ago

This is a huge blow for the russian regime. Things are really starting to look bad over there. We might see a second collapse in 2026. Putin has destroyed a country.

hello_computer 2y ago

[flagged]

csomar 2y ago

[flagged]

nakedrobot2 2y ago
ah, only your opinion is valid?
teractiveodular 2y ago
While I'm a firm atheist, Assad jettisoned all pretense of Baathist/secular ideology a decade if not longer ago in favor of simply doing whatever it takes to stay in power. The atrocities perpetrated by Assad's regime were far larger in scale than anything that ISIS ever managed, half a million people (on all sides) have died since 2013.
inglor_cz 2y ago
Is a secular dictatorship that tortures its opponents any better than a theocracy that tortures its opponents? If your balls are getting crushed by the secret police, does it really matter if they do so in the name of Allah or Assad? I am as secular as they come, but I see no difference here. The root problem for me is the tyranny itself, and not its particular ideological flavor.
- lazide 2y ago
  Hmm, at least Assad’s secret police would leave you with the belief you’d be going to heaven/martyring yourself.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
wiseowise 2y ago
My opinion is that of my ex-colleague who had to flight Syria and has some strong words about Assad. There’s no “tyranny for good reason”.
rwyinuse 2y ago
Yeah, I bet people of Aleppo really will really miss those secular bombs landing on them, just as political prisoners will miss those secular beatings.

asimpletune 2y ago

What are the chances the Kurds will get their own land out of this?

teractiveodular 2y ago
The best case is that northern parts of Syria end up like Iraqi Kurdistan, where they will de facto control a slice of the country. However, Turkey to the north is really not keen on the Kurds having any territory, so they'll do whatever they can to frustrate this.
- AngaraliTurk 2y ago
  The Iraqi Kurdistan (KRG) you mention has friendly relations with Turkey.
  - teractiveodular 2y ago
    The main Syrian Kurdish militia has very unfriendly relations with Turkey. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Defense_Units https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Defense_Units
    - AngaraliTurk 2y ago
      It was a reply to your comment: > However, Turkey to the north is really not keen on the Kurds having any territory, so they'll do whatever they can to frustrate this. It's not true that Turkey is not keen on the Kurds having any territory because their friendly relations with KRG is a counter example.
- throw0101d 2y ago
  > However, Turkey to the north is really not keen on the Kurds having any territory, so they'll do whatever they can to frustrate this. Could it work that if the Kurds have their own 'official' region (either country, or province with-in another country) Turkey (Türkiye) would simply throw money at people to move to it? If there aren't any Kurds living with Turkey's borders, would that be a win for Turkey?

InfiniteVortex 2y ago

I’m shocked that the ruling dynasty fell as quickly as it did, along with the military being ineffective and unwilling to stop the rebels given how long the civil war has been going on for. Incredible.

deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
ssijak 2y ago
Looks similar to USA withdrawal from Afghanistan. When big power withdrew support, whoever they were protecting just got run over in a week. Same here.
627467 2y ago
Is a 14 years long process (the Syrian civil war) quick? Just Wikipedia the civil war article. Did people forget about ISIS uprising as well? Look at the map: the regime haven't controlled most of the territory since the start of the civil war. The regime has become a failed state struggling to make ends meet.
guilhas 2y ago
In the end they couldn't alone keep fighting Al-Qaeda(rebranded) and ISIS, supported by USA, Turkey and Israel

riskyingo 2y ago

[flagged]

Ylpertnodi 2y ago
My car-to-work radio is set to a rock-based station. Occasionally they will play a(n overtly) pop song, or two. It's a great station (for me, as the infrequent "not of this genre" surprise keeps me interested. The occasional not-tech story on HN is equally welcome for myself, as the level of comments, and opinions are so much 'higher' than other places. There's always some comment/s that allow me to appreciate another pov, without getting too snarky.
- riskyingo 2y ago
  Weird, there are places where political news can be discussed. You feel you need a variety, others might feel rightfully that it should stick to its purpose. Coming back to analogies, I don't send memes to work chats.
  - reducesuffering 2y ago
    Ignore the thread then? There's 100 others
    - riskyingo 2y ago
      Thanks, I didn't know I could just do that.
tpm 2y ago
Anyway, the success of the rebels is to a degree due to drones, to which Assad's forces didn't have an answer.

20kleagues 2y ago

I would love to hear what the Syrian hacker news community has to say about this. I’m reading so many comments here but not sure how many are from actual Syrians who probably have a deeper understanding and hope/fears about what comes next.

someotherperson 2y ago
“Actual Syrians” isn’t a thing for this — it’s like wanting to hear from ‘actual Americans’ what they thought of the US election. Depending on the ethnicity, religion and politics of those Syrians you’ll get wildly different views.
- j_maffe 2y ago
  Most Syrians I know are celebrating. I could have a biased demographic tho.
  - philistine 2y ago
    Even if the situation get worse, there is definitely cause to celebrate one less player on the very complicated board that is the civil war.
  - CuriousCosmic 2y ago
    Statistically most would be. Assad's regime were Shiites (~13% of the population) and the HTS are Sunni (74% of the population). This doesn't necessarily mean they are better but at the very least of two very theistic groups, the latter better represents the population than the former. And of course while this means Russia and Assad are finally out of the equation, the governments in North and East Syria aren't exactly stoked about the HTS' explosive growth in power.
- 20kleagues 2y ago
  And those different (or similar) views are what would be important and what I would be interested to read. Because the views of the people from that land are what matter the most during these events.

theLegionWithin 2y ago

Assad was backed by Iran & Iran has been bad news for that region for some decades. the new coalition is backed by Turkey, and since they share a border it makes a lot more sense than Iran ever did. way too early to say much more right now. next few weeks/months should be interesting though.

guerrilla 2y ago
This is an absurd oversimplification. Turkey backs two powerful factions. Another powerful faction is one that Turkey wants to eliminate permanently. A third powerful faction is supported by the US, Jordan and others. Then you have the fact that a lot of who Turkey helped are elite salafists who would gladly go to war with them if they had the power to do so.
- Apocryphon 2y ago
  For reference, can you please name the four or so factions you’re referring to?
  - guerrilla 2y ago
    HTS, SNA, Southern Front and SDF. This is an intentional oversimplification but illustrates the point I wanted to make with broad strokes.

Caius-Cosades 2y ago

Rebel? How about we just call them for what they are, Turkish proxies in the north and US proxies in the east.

riskyingo 2y ago
[flagged]
GordonS 2y ago
These "moderate rebels" are literally Al Qaeda and ISIS, but western media is manufacturing consent for them in real-time: [0] https://x.com/AlanRMacLeod/status/1865009325669818430?t=r-Pr7PaKXAN46IcEhsEMoQ https://x.com/AlanRMacLeod/status/1865009325669818430?t=r-Pr... I'd also note that HTS is a proscribed terror organisation in the UK - yet nobody is having their doors kicked in for supporting them, in stark contrast to those publishing the truth about Israel, Palestine and Lebanon.
- reducesuffering 2y ago
  No such "western media manufacturing consent" here. Everyone is unsure of the future. Assad is practically universally hated, Idlib was been under HTS governance, relatively moderate for the region, for the past 4 years. The past Al-Qaeda ties are frequently noted. Few bigger western voices than the National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan: "The group at the vanguard of this rebel advance, HTS, is actually a terrorist organization designated by the United States. So we have real concerns about the designs and objectives of that organization. At the same time, of course, we don’t cry over the fact that the Assad government, backed by Russia, Iran and Hezbollah, are facing certain kinds of pressure. So it’s a complicated situation.”
- arp242 2y ago
  'Moderate' is in quotes. The full article[1] mentions the al-Qaeda and IS links, and expresses doubt over the 'moderate' image (which is why it's in quotes). That tweet is a misrepresentation. Never mind the ranting about "Israeli spies". [1]: https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/the-moderate-jihadist-leader-sweeping-through-syria-while-telling-troops-not-to-frighten-children/ar-AA1v04JX https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/the-moderate-jihadist-l...

ein0p 2y ago

It is a bit surreal to read people cheering for islamist head choppers who overthrew a secular government. Remember this 10 years from now when these same head choppers blow something up in NYC. The fundamental invariant of governance stands undefeated: religious head choppers, whether they are on "our side" or not, are always worse in the long run than the secular governments. See the "freedom fighter" Osama Bin Laden for a particularly vivid example.

ethereal-haze 2y ago
You obviously haven’t read up on the atrocities done by this so called “secular government”
stefantalpalaru 2y ago
[dead]
Pikamander2 2y ago
I don't think people are cheering for the Islamists so much as they are celebrating the collapse of the Assad family's brutal half-century dictatorship. Syria is a place where optimism goes to die, but this is the first time in generations that Syria has been given a chance to rebuild itself, so there's at least a tiny glimmer of hope.
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]
TiredOfLife 2y ago
If choice is between dying from head chopping or a chemical attack I choose head chopping.
- ein0p 2y ago
  "Chemical attack" was a lie, BTW. That came out in OPCW report shortly thereafter. You do need to read up on it. Same as "Iraqi WMDs" or "babies on bayonets" etc, a casus belli to give another few hundred billion to US MIC. But even if we assume that it wasn't, for the sake of argument, those "chemical weapons", if they ever existed, are in the hands of literal ISIS now.

vFunct 2y ago

Great. So when are the elections? There are going to be elections, right?

postsantum 2y ago
Sorry, but syrian elections is a pro-russian dogwhistle according to disinformation experts
whatever1 2y ago
Elections are not a silver bullet. Many tyrannical regimes hold elections, yet the supreme leader always wins.
627467 2y ago
Look at Lebanon next door, they have elections, constitutional consensus to power share among sect diverse population. Syrian is just a large Lebanon. Doubt elections are the solution
deleted 2y ago
[deleted]

paxys 2y ago

More than anything this shows how terrible a shape Russia and Iran are in. A 15 year long proxy war ended with a whimper.

Timber-6539 2y ago
Your logic posits that the good guys lost i.e Russia & Iran, supposedly fighting terrorists in Syria.
- echoangle 2y ago
  How do you read that from the comment?
  - Timber-6539 2y ago
    It's clear to me given the description of the protagonists involved on this topic.
    - jncfhnb 2y ago
      Can you explain your logic
    - shepherdjerred 2y ago
      That comment was completely neutral
  - humanlity 2y ago
    I believe that his opinion is that HTS originated from ISIS.
- SAI_Peregrinus 2y ago
  That doesn't mean the good guys lost, just that one set of bad guys lost and another won. As usual.
  - 2y ago

nabla9 2y ago

Assad dynasty was just a symptom of the problems in Syria. Syria is a Sunni majority country. During the Assad dynasty Alawite minority (population 2-3 million) was the ruling ethnic class in Syria. They have their own sect of Islam (Alawism). Alawites were stuck with Assad family even if they came from competing factions. If Assad falls, they get massacred. The insurgents fight under the flag of Syrian National Army, backed by Turkey, but the fighting has been mostly led by jihadi group Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS).

maxglute 2y ago

Interesting times intensifies.

octopusRex 2y ago

It's a place where there's no good guys to root for. I fear for its citizens, and especially for women.

halJordan 2y ago
[flagged]
- octopusRex 2y ago
  I was thinking of the patriarchy and oppression.
talldayo 2y ago
The "good guys" are the citizens, who were unjustly imprisoned for protesting against a blatantly oppressive government. These prisoners have been released by the rebels, which is a "good" enough cause that people can celebrate for the rest of the week.

charlieyu1 2y ago

Good and bad news. Ukrainian sacrifices lead to liberation of Syria. I guess you can’t have everything good. Chinese sacrifices in 1989 lead to collapse of USSR after all

VoodooJuJu 2y ago

If you compare the Assad regime to your own western country, you'd think what happened here was a good thing. But that's the wrong comparison to make. The rosier Dutch government won't be taking over control here. The rebels will be. And if you compare the Assad regime to the actual alternative, the rebels, you'll instead realize: the hard times have only just begun [1]. [1] https://medium.com/opacity/the-syrian-war-condensed-a-more-rigorous-way-to-look-at-the-conflict-f841404c3b1d https://medium.com/opacity/the-syrian-war-condensed-a-more-r...

malshe 2y ago

This analysis helped me understand the situation better: https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/how-to-think-about-the-fall-of-assad https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/how-to-think-about-the-...

wanderingbit 2y ago
That was helpful and seemed balanced, but I am not knowledgeable enough to know what it left out. thank you nonetheless.

sincerecook 2y ago

Why are we cheering this? Is it because Russia supported Assad and now Russia has been defeated? Because we love Ukraine right? Also, Assad and Russia don't like LGBT persons? Can someone spell it out for me in plain words please, I'm on the spectrum.

xenospn 2y ago
The Assad family ruled Syria with an iron fist for decades. They imprisoned, bombed and killed hundreds of thousands of their own people.
- sincerecook 2y ago
  OK, and the new guys are good? They are going to make a western democracy there?

mahirsaid 2y ago

Biggest strategy for any government is not to resolve a conflict immediate but to post pone a the conflict for a better time. "Well come up with a solution later but for now slow down or stop". Conflict is essential for some of these countries it's part of how they change and form to something else. We can relate in the U.S. Becuase we have a different history and different threats. But if history tells us anything we've already had our conflicts and civil wars that brought us to today. As you can see the country Is yet again confused with what it wants. Regulations are crippling companies and the very sectors that made America what it is or used to be. So we have our fair share of problems but for now we'll deal with It

akmittal 2y ago

This post about Syria has more Russia vs Ukraine comments than Syria. Can anyone explain which one is the bad side?

joemazerino 2y ago

Syria successfully fought against ISIS and Al-Qaeda for decades. It will now be turned into another dreary caliphate.

stiltzkin 2y ago

[dead]

Thuggery 2y ago

50 years is honestly not that long. When you look at historical dynasties even the shorter ones tend to be ~100 years, if they don't immediately implode. That was a lot of suffering and chaos of what's actually a fairly trifling dynasty in the grand scheme of things.

hulitu 2y ago

[flagged]

tclover 2y ago

Syrians will regret this.