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Tesla Robotaxi
- projectileboy 2y agoI feel like I’ve been looking at the same marketing slide deck for 10 years from these people. Wake me when they ship something.
- porphyra 2y agoDo you not see those driverless Cybercabs driving around without a steering wheel? At least that's a development that we haven't seen in the past 10 years.
- mplewis 2y agoCars that drive in a circle around a fixed course? Yeah, I've seen that before.
- maximinus_thrax 2y agohttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PRitZlhL3OQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PRitZlhL3OQ - 6 years ago https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w2aNJCsfrP0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w2aNJCsfrP0 - 10 years ago https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mITK3qaaHQ8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mITK3qaaHQ8 - 4 years ago
- porphyra 2y agoAnd none of those shows a Cybercab. What's your point?
- maximinus_thrax 2y agoIf I have to explain it, the whole point is lost. I've marked this conversation as a loss and so did the investors wrt to the Tesla stock. I recommend you do the same.
- zombiwoof 2y ago[flagged]
- simonebrunozzi 2y agoYear 2026 in Elon time = year 2030 in real time
- alex_young 2y agoAre they faking this? The robots seem way too human like, maybe they are remotely controlled?
- Animats 2y agoThe ones that are walking around live move much worse than the ones seen in the videos of robots in a home. I suspect the latter were teleoperated.
- cryptoegorophy 2y agoSeems like the bar tender one was teleoperated
- jsemrau 2y agoThat head movement.
- yinser 2y agoWithout a doubt speculators will flood this comment either way.
- bufferoverflow 2y agoWatch the latest FSD videos. It drives exactly like that.
- ipsum2 2y agoHaving built teleoperated robots, I can guarantee that the non-dancing ones are teleoperated.
- TheAlchemist 2y agoYep, they were just teleoperated - movements, voice everything. I guess they forgot to mention that.
- wilsonnb3 2y agoAnybody know why the autonomous taxi isn't just a model 3? I don't see the point in a purpose built two seater with no steering wheel or pedals and I don't know why regulators would approve an autonomous car with no way to manually override it.
- strulovich 2y agoBarring all the issues, if you did build a huge fleet of autonomous taxis - smaller, lighter cars with less moving pieces would save you a lot of money. 2 seater - smaller car No wheels or stuff - saves money on the build and parts.
- dmix 2y agoThey are probably planning to reuse lots of parts from model 3 to save money And people are creatures of habit and highly social so version 1 of robotaxis will 100% look like normal cars. Regardless of whatever benefits you can come up with on paper. Once it's normalized then you experiment.
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- saturn8601 2y agoThis is the company that released the CyberTruck. V1 will probably look mostly like what was presented. Every single prototype they have ever unveiled eventually ended up looking very similar to the production model.
- justahuman74 2y agoYikes, I had assumed it was the usual concept car BS until you mentioned the cybertruck
- ulfw 2y agoOr god forbid you'd build a proper electric public transport network that can transport dozens, sometimes hundreds of people way more efficiently.
- Animats 2y agoThe Verge has good coverage. [1] https://www.theverge.com/2024/10/10/24267132/tesla-robotaxi-we-robot-autonomous-fsd-elon-musk https://www.theverge.com/2024/10/10/24267132/tesla-robotaxi-...
- iknowstuff 2y agonot good at all. doesn’t mention the mini-bus which is large enough to stand in. said fsd was “recalled” but what really happened was the driver monitoring software was updated.
- danpalmer 2y agoAs I understand it, a car "recall" is a regulated action in the US, and that manufacturers must issue recalls in certain circumstances and that they bring with them various requirements. How that recall actually takes place, and whether it's just an OTA update, is an implementation detail that doesn't matter as much. I realise that does go against the customer perception of what a product recall entails in general. The Verge therefore is technically correct in stating that it was a recall.
- etchalon 2y agoThe best kind of correct.
- zaroth 2y agoYou can argue semantics, but it’s not an implementation detail that doesn’t matter, it’s fundamentally misrepresenting the truth. A “recall” that does actually involve bringing the car in for service, a.k.a. recalling the car, is not accurately described as a “recall”. Words mean something. The NHTSA is being idiotic (unsurprisingly) in not distinguishing between a software update and a recall, because legacy auto doesn’t have the software chops to successfully replicate Tesla’s approach. News agencies that lean into that idiocy in a slanted attempt to denigrate Tesla are only denigrating themselves. It is not good coverage, and it is willfully misleading their own readers. Call it a mandatory update if you want. But nothing was recalled, so insisting on calling it a recall is like insisting on calling cars “horseless carriages”.
- sorenbs 2y agoExisting discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41805515 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41805515
- nkotov 2y agoLove the design of the robocab. Assuming production looks something like this, can’t wait to see it IRL.
- nick111631 2y agoLove the fastback look. The curves in stainless look way nicer than the angular cybertruck. (viewing online, not in person)
- porphyra 2y agoLooks very similar to the Volkswagen XL1, including the butterfly doors, the lack of a rear window, the color, the front and rear lightbars, and the overall shape and two seater layout. But I love it.
- zaroth 2y agoLooks like VW sold 250 of them (ever) for $125k a piece. Tesla will apparently be selling it for $30k before the end of 2016. I’m super curious about the induction charging rate! The robot they showed cleaning it was also pretty interesting.
- lern_too_spel 2y agoYou can if you attend one of the next 10 annual Tesla robotaxi announcements.
- karlgkk 2y agoIt's a slick design, but unless it's expected to be used in very limited scenarios, the lack of a control surface (or even how Tesla expects to build an OC) for edge cases is worrying.
- Marsymars 2y agoI expect that the general handling of edge cases for any control-free robotaxi is that you call for emergency services, or an Uber, depending on severity.
- rio517 2y agoReally wish they had shared more details. It was so high-level that we didn't really learn anything substantive.
- sidcool 2y agoThey had a working car. Unlike most other reveals
- spankalee 2y agoBut we already know they can make a car.
- eftychis 2y agoThe whole point was to please future shareholders.
- elkos 2y agoMaybe the product isn't the car but the stock.
- nick111631 2y agoThey have a pretty decent robot thing going on.
- mplewis 2y agoIt's 2024 and the Optimus can almost do some of the things Asimo could in 2000.
- sidcool 2y agoA new car look without steering wheel and pedals. A working robovan. I don't think people understand the complexity of creating a hardware prototype of anything. This can't be ChatGPTed
- zombiwoof 2y ago[flagged]
- rvz 2y agoWhat if there are humans acting as these Tesla Robots in this product demo or the Tesla Robots are just remotely operated by humans to fake this demo?. Very skeptical of this whole presentation, even if Elon and Tesla are overpromising on timelines.
- AlotOfReading 2y agoNothing that was shown is beyond the capabilities of robots from over a decade ago like Asimo (e.g. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=am1csALyEzE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=am1csALyEzE). It was a cool demo and beyond hobbyist capabilities, but realistically achievable by a commercial lab without having to fake it.
- mavhc 2y agoWhat if everything you know is a lie, what if we never went to the moon, what if all our leaders are lizard people?
- ipsum2 2y agoIt's definitely teleoperated. The hardware is there, but the software isn't.
- j7ake 2y agoThey haven’t even gotten self driving working with driver still at the wheel, how are they supposed to convince us that they can do fully autonomous?
- jjulius 2y agoI mean, people have been gullible for this long already...
- fiddlerwoaroof 2y agoI use it every day, but HN says it doesn’t work
- cryptoegorophy 2y agoExactly. I wish people actually used it instead of reading biased news about it. Driving is so much stress free with it now.
- bagels 2y agoI used it. It was novel, but it made a lot of mistakes. I didn't subscribe.
- spike021 2y agoI frequently drive in the SF Bay Area in a non-Tesla and it's incredible how many Teslas I've seen nearly hit us, randomly swerve or brake hard for literally no reason. I always encounter a lot of Teslas while walking my dog and it's clear they're no safer than many people who shouldn't be driving regular cars.
- minwcnt5 2y agoIt's wild, most Teslas I encounter drive fine, but every once in a while I see one driving completely erratically. Stopping 20 feet too soon at a stop sign, very weird positioning in lane, sudden acceleration or deceleration. I think I can pretty much tell if a Tesla has FSD enabled if I follow it for a minute or so.
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- norir 2y agoI find the timing of this release interesting to say the least.
- bagels 2y agoHow so?
- wnevets 2y agoElon Musk Has Been Promising Self-Driving Cars For 10 Years [Update - We Are Now On Year 11] [1] https://jalopnik.com/elon-musk-tesla-self-driving-cars-anniversary-autopilot-1850432357 https://jalopnik.com/elon-musk-tesla-self-driving-cars-anniv... [1]
- laidoffamazon 2y agoThe RoboTaxi looks neat, but I don't get why it only seats 2 rather than just updating the Model 3? What's the utility of an entirely new production line for a car that is less flexible than the existing model that's built at scale?
- tsimionescu 2y agoIt's much easier to explain to shareholders why these things have endless delays even though "the tech is already there!" if they are a new chassis rather than an existing one. That way, when they haven't released anything in the next 5-10 years, they can still keep the music going.
- deepfriedchokes 2y agoWhy wasn’t the Model X not just a Model S chassis with higher ground clearance and an SUV body?
- rpmisms 2y agoBecause it was a halo vehicle, and it worked out very well. The Model Y is literally a lifted and heightened model 3 because it's not a halo vehicle.
- sandspar 2y agoGraphic on Twitter says that ~90% of car trips consist of 1-2 people.
- krosaen 2y agoThis is coming in 2 years at the earliest?
- tsimionescu 2y agoTesla Full self driving has been coming by the end of the year since at least 2018. Expect this to follow a similar timeline.
- drewrv 2y agoI actually think we’ll get break even fusion energy before mass adoption of robotaxis in a variety of locales.
- maguay 2y agoThe Robovan—as an actual van one could buy today—would sell. Especially in Asia, versus Toyota Alphards. Alas, seems it's more likely to get used as point-to-point transit inside closed spaces (parks and convention centers and ... perhaps the Vegas Loop).
- Animats 2y ago> The Robovan — as an actual van one could buy today—would sell. One would think so. But slow self-driving mini-buses seem to be a niche item. San Francisco's Treasure Island had one from Beep for part of 2023 and early 2024. Las Vegas had one back in 2017, from Nayva. Local Motors had some, but is defunct. There are a few from WeRide on an island in Guangzhou. EasyMile has a few installations. This kind of self driving, at 7 to 9 MPH, has been around since 2009. It works, but it's not that useful.
- maguay 2y agoFair. I was actually imagining a Robovan crossed with a Model Y, with a legit steering wheel (and, sure, standard FSD), to compete with premium mini-vans. But to your point, the value for the Robovan is minuscular unless it's as far-ranging as any other vehicle. And even if the FSD tech and regulations are there for it, the actual vehicle—at least the wheelbase and body covering said wheels—will need to be rethought for real-world conditions.
- avalys 2y agoHey Tesla, where's the Roadster 2 you announced in 2017 and took $50,000 deposits for? Oh, that's right, it was a stunt to boost the stock price, not a real product you intended to sell. Just like this.
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- eftychis 2y agoYou mean the interest free loan they asked for? They are just waiting for it to double, so give it another 5 years. /s Seriously, though, this is the standard Elon Musk tactic...
- bagels 2y agoI wonder how many people did/didn't ask for their money back on that one.
- mgrassotti 2y agoThat’s it? Yawn…
- nikcub 2y agoHere's an idea - take the Robocab car design, strip out all the FSD/autopilot stuff, put in a steering wheel and dash and sell it starting at the end of the year for ~$25k. It would sell +++
- m463 2y agoa ROUND steering wheel and add turn signal stalks!!
- qwerpy 2y agoThe squircle actually works pretty well in the CT! Agree about the turn signal stalks though.
- amluto 2y agoIt would need a NACS port. Otherwise it would be a rather expensive brick.
- porphyra 2y agoand a steering wheel i guess
- bravetraveler 2y agoToss in a spare tire, too. I care to do without! It's several thousand dollars. Signed, annoyed owner of a car with a fix-it-kit and a pat on the ass
- m463 2y agowithout a spare tire, every flat I've gotten is a giant unplanned waste of time (min was 4 hours)
- odysseus 2y agoLast flat I had, there was a giant Allen wrench stuck in the tire and it was rapidly leaking. Filled it back up as much as I could with the included inflator kit, took it a big box store, they patched it up and was on my way. Took maybe an hour total out of my day? No $ cost to me (under tire warranty)
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- whamlastxmas 2y agoIt’s unfortunate comment sections for stuff like this can’t be genuine curious conversation
- tsimionescu 2y agoThere's only so many times you can have genuine curious conversation for the same promise. Musk has been holding this presentation, with very small variations, for 6-10 years now. The first 5 times, sure, plenty of curious conversation. But after some time you have to start calling a fraud a fraud.
- olabyne 2y agoMaybe because the event was all smoke and mirrors, and no actual numbers and plans were revealed ?
- etchalon 2y agoI see Lucy has brought a new football to the yard.
- danpalmer 2y agoThe big promise of the Robotaxi was that every Tesla would be one, that your Tesla would earn you money while you weren't using it. This was obviously unlikely to ever happen, but has been the promise right up to this event, and something Musk has been very vocal about. Despite having very few details in this presentation, the one detail that is clear is that existing Teslas won't be taxiing anyone, and Tesla will be the operator reaping the benefits. That's a significant under-delivery, especially for the average Tesla retail investor who believes in the mission and is driving their stock price.
- mgiannopoulos 2y agoUber drivers already drive Teslas with FSD. Today.
- tsimionescu 2y agoThe promise was that you'd buy a Model 3 to use as your personal car, and then run it as a robotaxi while you're at work, and the taxi money would pay you back for the car within a year. FSD is nowhere near up to that task, neither technically nor legally. And the new info from this presentation is that it is, of course, never going to be: this was an indirect admission that the Model 3 was sold with fraudulent advertising by the then-CEO himself.
- iknowstuff 2y ago[flagged]
- mgiannopoulos 2y agoOn the event they announced they will start Unsupervised FSD in California and Texas with Models 3 and Y in 2025
- bravetraveler 2y agoThanks for the laugh, wonderful passive income and price point
- 2y ago
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- xnx 2y agoOverpromised and underdelivered, but Elon did make a strong case for a very positive autonomous-driving future. Unfortunately for Tesla, Waymo is at least 5 years closer to delivering that future.
- momento 2y agoThey are going face major regulatory hurdles. Safety concerns are huge—both real and perceived—and governments, especially in places like the US and Europe, are still far from trusting fully autonomous vehicles. Add in fragmented regulations across different states and countries, plus potential public skepticism, and it's clear this won't be in place any time soon. Labor opposition is also going to be a nightmare. Just as Uber faced resistance from taxi unions and legislators sympathetic to workers who saw their jobs threatened, Tesla will likely face significant opposition from drivers in the gig economy, who rely on ride-hailing platforms like Uber and Lyft. Governments may be pressured to protect those jobs, especially in regions where automation is seen as a threat to employment.
- sidcool 2y agoThis story seems to have been buried.
- elkos 2y agoas far as I've seen a high number of comments in a HN post will impact it's ranking. to my understanding that is a feature designed to limit flamewars, of course I might be mistaken.
- rumblefrog 2y agoRobotaxi & Optumus robot still looks to be years and years away. However, I'm pretty fond of the idea of having distributed compute nodes that performs computations when idle, the idea of reclaiming parking lots, the induction charging and vacuum bots looks pretty sleek as well.
- DaiPlusPlus 2y ago> distributed compute nodes that performs computations when idle I can't imagine that working well for latency-sensitive applications... like self-driving cars.
- mplewis 2y agoHe just bought a massive data center with thousands of Nvidia boards. Why would the car be an efficient place to do the same work?
- rumblefrog 2y agoI don't believe it would be efficient, or do I know what compute load he intends these to be. But it's some use for idling hardware.
- mavhc 2y agoBecause getting GWs of power into one building and the cooling it is expensive. Why not let other people buy the computer, provide the power, and it won't need expensive cooling. Question is: are there enough high latency distributed workloads to sell?
- throwaway48476 2y agoHigh latency distributed with low security requirements. Until homomophic encryption works.
- randerson 2y agoAnd resilient enough to handle nodes having an accident, catching fire in a flood, parking underground with no signal for days, pausing to be used as a car... This is an unreliable spot instance at best, with none of the features one can normally attach to an instance (like storage, managed databases, ...). How fast can its Internet be? Will owners need to pay for Starlink too? (What about when parked indoors?) It would have to be cheaper than all regular hosting options by a long shot for anyone to consider this. A very niche, low-paying market, in other words.
- TechPlasma 2y agoI think their "robotaxi" is kinda pathetic. But goddamn... That bus is one of the single most beautiful vehicles they have ever designed. I absolutely love it. (Fan of Art Deco and streamliner locomotive design)
- helf 2y ago[dead]
- sandspar 2y agoWhy are the comments on this topic so consistently low quality? It's not even cynicism. It's just snark. It seems like most commenters aren't addressing the topic but rather are venting about their feelings.
- kombookcha 2y agoThis dude has lied about robotaxis for a full 11 years. Think about where you were in life 11 years ago. Each time he's done this, it's been brought up in here with steadily decreasing enthusiasm. What reason would anybody have to engage seriously with this until an actual product has shipped?
- Kiro 2y agoAnd that warrants low-effort snark and jokes polluting these threads? There are still good discussions here, but they get muddled by all this nonsense.
- kombookcha 2y agoWhat did you see that you feel is being under-discussed?
- Kiro 2y agoIt's not that something is under-discussed. The problem is the noise. Apparently, I'm in the minority for disliking shallow Reddit-style snark, since it's getting upvoted while people complaining about it are getting downvoted and flagged.
- natch 2y agoTechnology will be ready when it's ready. There's a strong sense of entitlement and resentment in some when it's not ready when expected. "Lie" is a stretch and frankly it's not necessary to stoop down to that level. It's enough to say he's been overoptimistic and mistaken, like any human.
- roughly 2y agoThis is not a serious proposal. It's a cool little sports car looking design. It looks very future-y. It's the kind of thing someone would step out of in a sci-fi movie. That's how you know it's not an actual well-thought-out design. This isn't a taxi, it's the torment nexus in car form. Taxis are not sexy, taxis are utility vehicles. Taxis carry people and goods. Taxis carry more than one person. Taxis carry disabled people. Taxis carry the elderly. If you want to know what a purpose-built taxi looks like, look at the London cabs, the JPN Taxi, or the NV200s. If you're going to build a fully custom platform for a taxi, make a goddamn taxi. Actually put in the effort to design something built for the purpose, not just something that you think looks cool. (And if the design didn't give it away - inductive charging? Really?)
- iknowstuff 2y ago1) did u miss the robovan 2) these are supposed to be purchasable and they're very fucking cool 3) the model x with its gull wing doors is as cool as first shown.
- seattle_spring 2y ago> the model x with its gull wing doors is as cool as first shown. This could be a literal textbook example of "beauty is in the eye of the beholder." I literally laugh out loud when i see a Model X open its doors.
- iknowstuff 2y agook. I think you missed the point so to be clear: it’s exactly as first shown, and the doors are a big selling point.
- throwup238 2y agoIt’s a late april fools joke. Tesla Bot? They’ve gone full ASIMO in a Cartman suit.
- mavhc 2y agoThey should have put a massive trunk in the back to carry goods, and more than 1 seat, and not banned old people from taking trips, those bastards And if you wanted to use inductive charging why didn't you acquire a company that does that a few years ago, you can't just announce things with no experience in the area, that would be madness
- whitepoplar 2y agoconcept of a plan
- xyst 2y agoGreat, just what we need. More TSLA “full self driving” cars on the road. Hope this is delayed by a decade. Tired of car centric transportation.
- mavhc 2y agoPity they didn't also announce a self driving bus
- binarynate 2y agoIt's ironic that the example he gives for driving across LA already has a fast train connection: > People that live in LA, I mean try to get from Pasadena to El Segundo during rush hour. You can fly to another city faster than you get to crosstown LA. And you have to drive the whole way. You can take the Metro A line from Pasadena, then transfer to the C line to get to El Segundo. No driving necessary. Musk sells cars, so of course he has a massive incentive to say more cars are the solution to peoples' transit woes. But it seems like throwing more cars at the problem will simply make traffic worse, and from my experience living in Chicago, the best solution to avoid traffic (and parking!) is to take an alternative mode of transit that can bypass it (e.g. train, bike, electric scooter).
- gorgoiler 2y agoThe meme version of this would be: Musk: Mom, can I have national infrastructure on which I can safely and reliably operate my semi autonomous vehicles? Mom: We have infrastructure at home. The Infrastructure: a rail network with communal seating, infrequent service, and a minimal set of fixed route options. If, through the accidents of human history, we spend the next century repurposing highways as railroads for rubber tired carriages then I suppose that’s a good enough outcome. In the century after that maybe we’ll start to reclaim the highway land back, a la Dr Beeching’s shuttering of post war British railway infrastructure.
- sureglymop 2y agoMaybe reflect on how you got to congested 10-lane highways in the first place if the opportunity permits.
- justahuman74 2y agoTrains are great Unless you think LA should go London/NYC style and build a load of stations, there is still the problem of what to do if you're not near a station at the start or end. If it involves a bus connection, people will just drive
- 2y ago
- marsten 2y agoThe most interesting thing to me by far was the lack of a steering wheel on the Robocab. Without manual controls, vague promises ("puffery"?) about autonomy won't drive vehicle sales as they do today across all Tesla's models. The Robocab as shown literally cannot function (or make a dime of revenue) until they've fully solved autonomy and have convinced regulators of the same.
- forgot-im-old 2y ago[flagged]
- m463 2y agoAll that puffery is overestimated in the short term, and underestimated in the long term.
- ulfw 2y agoNo it isn't. Where's that Roadster he promised 7.5 years ago? And that's an easier thing to do. https://jalopnik.com/its-still-very-funny-that-1-000-people-gave-tesla-250-1851038764?utm_content=1701104405&utm_source=facebook https://jalopnik.com/its-still-very-funny-that-1-000-people-...
- m463 2y agoouch, $250,000 of TSLA in nov 2017 would be worth just under $3M today.
- zizee 2y agoThat Reddit thread reads like /UFOs, i.e. unhinged. Do you have a link to anything more reputable?
- forgot-im-old 2y ago[flagged]
- binoct 2y agoThey claim that unsupervised autonomy in existing cars will arrive in California and Texas next year (with an easy bogieman that it will depend on regulatory approval), but no details as to what exactly this would mean. It’s possible that they might be able to get an Level 3 product out similar to offerings by the likes of Daimler, Cadillac, and Ford - where on certain highways under certain conditions you don’t have to pay much attention but still must be available to take over relatively quickly if the conditions change. That seems the most likely route, although all other systems I believe rely on vision+radar or vision+lidar fusion. Those approaches have a lot more broad industry experience and quantifiable benefits in safety, but it’s possible Tesla has compelling data on the performance of its vision system, especially during daylight hours. I’m honestly not sure how they could ship what they are implying - basically FSD as it is today but without anyone in the driver’s seat. That would imply they are (nearly) comfortable with it driving 10’s to 100’s of millions of miles between fatal accidents without any intervention. Either that or they are willing to ship and know it’s less safe than an average driver. That’s ignoring non-fatal accident rates. There are some middle ground options where UFSD would have a larger set of conditions it can operate “unsupervised”, say in good weather and possibly daytime, and maybe only on some types of roads. But the edge cases where it transitions out of those conditions can be brutal and not easy to address. It’s relatively easy to say “just pull over and make the driver take over”, but especially on highways or heavy traffic that can take a while.
- wilg 2y agoFord and Cadillac have Level 2 systems, not Level 3. Tesla also has Level 2, but it is significantly more capable. (I don't think any of the others work on city streets at all, or even change lanes automatically based on navigation.) Mercedes is so limited to just technically qualify for Level 3 that it could be likely be trivially outmatched by some limited FSD conditions if that's the route Tesla wanted to go. But yeah I assume you start with some limited Level 3 subset, probably highway, then extend it to city streets. Then just start working your way through validating new conditions.
- binoct 2y agoFair call out that bluecruise and supercruise are not actually L3
- Animats 2y agoIt's amusing that this was at the Warner back lot, which is out in Burbank. Not Paramount or Universal, which are both in Hollywood. It would have been embarrassing to do this at Paramount or Universal, because those are in Waymo's service area. People would have arrived at the event in real self driving taxis.
- rapsey 2y agoWaymos however need thousands of dollars of hardware to achieve this and only work in limited areas. Tesla's bet is a lot more risky but also with a lot more potential.
- hyfgfh 2y agoPotential lawsuits
- slac 2y agoI strongly believe that once you have everything working it's much easier to start working on the costs.
- seanmcdirmid 2y agoThis is definitely the big bet Tesla is making. However, the hardware Waymo uses will also become cheaper over time and with scale, so either bet has advantages and disadvantages.
- ulfw 2y agoWaymos exist. This intro of nothing doesn't. It's much much easier to make an existing thing cheaper and better over time.
- rapsey 2y agoWaymos drive in limited geofenced zones. FSD exists but needs driver supervision. Both are incomplete and it is unknown who will be the winner.
- BonoboIO 2y agoSo this should be available next year … like the full self driving cars since 2012. This is just another to have something in the pipeline to keep shareholders at least interested. It seems Musk tries really hard to keep the stock price from collapsing.
- Kiro 2y ago[flagged]
- RigelKentaurus 2y agoAbout the Robotaxi: I really, really wanted to impressed by what they will demo. However, I thought it was more marketing, with the product being "just two years away" as always. The demo was in a controlled environment so I doubt its real-life capability. I guess I will believe it when I see it on roads. Disappointed.
- wilg 2y agoI think the products all look great. The timeline, who knows. They probably will manage to get at least the Robotaxi out as a buzzer beater December 2026 release of a handful, at a minimum. Unsupervised FSD timeline? Elon says 2025. I suspect they can do that, if you define it as Level 3, where you just need to take over within, say, 10-30 seconds. Probably starting on highway. Beyond that, hard to say. Recent FSD versions are impressive, but there is still a lot to do to reduce disengagement rates. But their strategy seems like it can be made to work. How soon will it take to get it good enough for Robotaxi/Robovan? Well, they can basically have said no sooner than two years (for the late 2026 Robotaxi release). I doubt unsupervised FSD will work in a fully autonomous taxi mode on existing vehicles until the very end of that window. Will the Tesla AI3 computers support Unsupervised FSD, sounds like possibly not, based on Elon's suspiciously noncommittal response to a guy yelling in the crowd. They can probably squeeze out of past promises on this in a couple ways if it won't work on AI3 cars. Presumably they'll want to minimize cost impact of making good. I think they'll first try to get as many FSD users to upgrade to a new AI4 (or later) vehicle by incentivizing them with free FSD transfer. For the rest, they could offer even bigger discounts on upgrading to a new car, and then finally bite the bullet and do some kind of FSD retrofit or simply refund. Or just piss everyone off and wait for the class action. But I suspect they'll resolve it sort of amicably while wanting to sweep it under the rug. They could also never be able to make autonomy work, but I think that's doubtful at this point. Waymo demonstrates you can do it with geographical, time, and other constraints, limited release, and a different hardware stack. I think Tesla's vision-only approach has been fairly well validated on the existing hardware. The remaining issues do not seem like they require significantly improved sensors to operate in at least 90% or so of conditions, which is more than sufficient to run a taxi service.
- jansan 2y agoNobody talking about those gimmicky butterfly doors? I would bet some money that they will not make it into mass production. Not for a car priced unter $100.000
- rpmisms 2y agoWhy? Tesla likes cool doors, and the model X starts at $80k already.
- DennisL123 2y agoClassic bait and switch setup. Selling people the future in 2 years time with little to nothing to show for today. Timelines will slip, plans will change, software won‘t be ready, prices will change. And that doesn’t even account for where Waymo is in two years from now, or what the Chinese EV industry is able to pull off until then. Even this underwhelming event was originally announced on short notice to prop up perception when sales looked bad in April [1], delayed by two‘ish months, and then didn‘t even start on time. Oh, and implementing the robo taxi was a two-months project back then [1]. It‘s a ruse, folks. [1] https://fortune.com/2024/07/16/elon-musk-tesla-robotaxi-delay-august-reveal-design/ https://fortune.com/2024/07/16/elon-musk-tesla-robotaxi-dela...
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- forgot-im-old 2y agoThis basically explains all of Elon's seemingly contradictory behaviors.
- horns4lyfe 2y agoWhat useful product did Enron ever build?
- remarkEon 2y agoThis is all well and good, but it's not possible to deploy these kinds of technologies at scale in American cities (well, most American cities). They'll get torn to bits. The ability to actually move to an autonomous transportation future is downstream from citizens actually behaving in a way that allows this. Harsh, but true. Maybe in Singapore.
- hiddencost 2y agoWaymo is doing 100k paid trips a week in 4 cities.
- Zanfa 2y agoGiven current Tesla FSD drives like a drunk teenager even in good conditions, I don't see how this is anything but a scam. It's the perpetual "Teslas will be able to fully self-drive in 2 years".
- redwood 2y agoNot my experience driving FSD in silicon valley. I was floored
- Zanfa 2y agoI obviously don't know your personal experience, but with the amount of videos from Tesla owners showcasing FSD turning into oncoming traffic, trying to clip parked cars, blazing through stop signs without even slowing down and taking roundabouts the wrong way around in 30 minutes and then finishing the video by concluding that FSD did well is insane. Just the amount of scary FSD footage from Cybertrucks alone that only got FSD a few weeks ago is massive.
- elAhmo 2y agoAlgorithm sometimes pushes those videos to me as well, and it seems that common narrative is 'great new update to FSD, I only had three interventions that could have killed me this morning'.
- redwood 2y agoThink about it this way: when it actually works, that's not a video you're watching or that's getting amplified on the feed.. social media is a distortion field
- gsleblanc 2y agoI for one cannot wait to run my cloud infrastructure on Tesla Web Services
- coolspot 2y agoRunning Dojo D1 chips?
- zizee 2y agoWho is the customer for this? Sub $30k appeals to regular people. But why would regular people want to own a robotaxi? I want robotaxis to exist so I don't have to own a car. I want someone else to own it, and I pay to use it once in a while. If this works, wouldn't just Tesla operate as a taxi company?
- bkfh 2y agoI don‘t want a car, I want mobility
- dieselgate 2y agoFor sure but the best thing about owning a vehicle is object permanence - for both the vehicle and whatever is inside it. At a certain point it’s just easier and more efficient to own something than rent/subscribe etc. Of course taxis/rentals all serve a purpose but usually not for daily use.
- madaxe_again 2y agoWhat you need is a horse. Full self-driving, all terrain, net zero, ubiquitous fuelling infrastructure, built in alarm and self-defence capabilities, and fully reusable and recyclable. I jest but I’m actually considering a horse to take my daughter to school, as it would shorten the journey considerably, as we live in tortured terrain in the middle of nowhere, and would allow her to go alone in a few years - again, mobility and utility are the goals for us here, not a car.
- feintruled 2y agoMy father grew up in a somewhat rural Irish village and there was one farmer who would take his horse and cart to the pub (fairly anachronistic even in his day) in the knowledge that no matter how passed-out drunk he got the other patrons would load him into the cart and the horse would take him home. Take that, self-driving cars!
- tdb7893 2y agoWait, why wouldn't I want my own robotaxi if it's cheap enough? Unless taking taxiw is much cheaper it seems much better to own one, especially for electric cars which have less maintenance requirements. A lot of people I know like their cars and don't want to take taxis everywhere. Maybe I'm missing how it wouldn't be appealing to regular people.
- napierzaza 2y ago[dead]
- paxys 2y ago2 years away from being 2 years away
- rifty 2y agoBecause of the word taxi in the name it gives off the initial impression that this is a product for fleet use and not something you own personally. But I don’t think that impression is going to explain the larger reality. if it’s inexpensive and possible to exist in this form, this is what you’d expect people to buy as a personally owned vehicle specifically for commuting.
- wg0 2y agoAnd the collective "Scam Artist par Excellence and Conman of the Century" award goes to...
- TheAlchemist 2y agoIt's important to remember when this event was announced. It was announced in April, when stock was plunging following a Reuters report that a cheap Model 2 was cancelled. Musk called them liars and announced on the spot the event that we witnessed today (which was postponed from the initial 8/8 date...). That's what fraud looks like folks.
- oblio 2y agoWas there an event, too? Any videos?
- TheAlchemist 2y agoThere are plenty yes. Here is a Reuters article: https://www.reuters.com/technology/teslas-musk-unveil-robotaxis-amid-fanfare-skepticism-2024-10-10/ https://www.reuters.com/technology/teslas-musk-unveil-robota...
- oblio 2y agoYou know what screams "democratizate transportation"? 99% single occupancy vehicles (well, that's democratic, I'll grant them that) controlled by a corporation known for a million abuses and basically no oversight, everything managed by faceless software. Let me tell you an Uber story. I've been an Uber customer across multiple countries for many years, and one day, I had a layover in London. So I tried to book an Uber in London, but it failed a few times for technical reasons (so their problem). After a bunch of attempts, I received a notification my account was banned. I contacted support, they gave me the runaround for 30 minutes or more, in the end their response was the standard BigCorp canned answer for fraud: "we can't tell you why your actions are suspicious" (with the subtext: if you're an innocent victim of our scans, tough luck, but we can't tell you because statistically if we tell you what you did wrong, real fraudsters will learn and defraud us even more). So now I can't use Uber in the UK (I imagine if I try to circumvent the ban with another account, I risk that getting banned, too, and who knows what else, as I have to put my credit card in their app). Now imagine if you want to plan your life around stuff like Tesla Robotaxi and they ban you. What's your recourse? With your own motorbike/car, you need to commit serious crimes to lose your license forever. With public transportation, as long as you pay the ticket, nobody can ban you for life. And I don't think anyone can take away your bike/ebike/scooter/escooter :-)
- jillesvangurp 2y agoAre normal taxis any different? Most of them only have one or two passengers. Typically in the backseat which gets kind of crowded with more people. You can get bigger taxis of course. But I'm talking about the common sedan model with the driver in the front. An unused front seat on the right. And the one or two passengers in the back. Exactly the same thing. Except there's no need for the driver. I don't get the moral outrage here. It's taxi with one person less (the driver). Also available as a model 3 and y. And the robovan thing. So they do actually cover a range of vehicles with different amounts of passengers.
- oblio 2y ago> Are normal taxis any different? Most of them only have one or two passengers. Typically in the backseat which gets kind of crowded with more people. You can get bigger taxis of course. But I'm talking about the common sedan model with the driver in the front. An unused front seat on the right. And the one or two passengers in the back. Exactly the same thing. Except there's no need for the driver. We need to invest in walkable, bikeable cities and public transportation, not help these companies that lobby for making less liveable cities and towns. That was my main point for that angle. I know Americans hate each other and public transportation, but everything has a trade off and Robotaxis won't make our lives better. > I don't get the moral outrage here. It's taxi with one person less (the driver). Also available as a model 3 and y. And the robovan thing. So they do actually cover a range of vehicles with different amounts of passengers. How often to riders get banned from taxi companies? The Robotaxi looks like a service, ride hailing. Are these vehicles actually sold?
- whensean 2y agoThey demonstrate this robot that is manipulated by someone behind the scenes. Is this really possible?
- whensean 2y agoThey showcase this robot that is manipulated by someone behind the scenes. Is this really possible? It seems like a scam.
- ben_w 2y agoWith regards to "can this ever actually be done?" I think it can*, but also it's got all the problems of both a software project and fundamental research: the difficulty is unknown, the timeline is a wild guess. That said, no steering wheel? Finally, he's met my long-standing requirement for what counts as "genuinely self driving". * humans don't need lidar — we clearly benefit from all the extra sensors or we wouldn't even have rear view mirrors let alone parking sensors, but technically it's believable.
- airtonix 2y ago[dead]
- BlindEyeHalo 2y agoYou now what makes transportation more affordable, sustainable and energy efficient? Building trains, trams and subways.
- openrisk 2y agowhat the world really needs is a robobicycle and according to this video we are nearly there :-) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0F1H1V5MxtY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0F1H1V5MxtY
- apienx 2y agoAfter predicting that, in the long term, humanoid robots will cost less than a car, Mr. Musk added: "It'll take up a minute to get to the long term". Please stop trolling, Elon.
- Vortigaunt 2y agoOh hey I get to copy paste a list of times elon said FSD would come out next year![1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16] [1]https://fortune.com/2015/12/21/elon-musk-interview/ https://fortune.com/2015/12/21/elon-musk-interview/ [2]https://x.com/elonmusk/status/686279251293777920 https://x.com/elonmusk/status/686279251293777920 [3]https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/jun/02/self-driv https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/jun/02/self-driv... [4]https://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/driverless-tesla-will https://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/driverless-tesla-will... [5]https://x.com/elonmusk/status/823727035088416768 https://x.com/elonmusk/status/823727035088416768 [6]https://www.ted.com/talks/elon_musk_the_future_we_re_buildin https://www.ted.com/talks/elon_musk_the_future_we_re_buildin... [7]https://x.com/elonmusk/status/866482406160609280 https://x.com/elonmusk/status/866482406160609280 [8]https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1063123659290595328 https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1063123659290595328 [9]https://web.archive.org/web/20190220051410/https://www.ark-i https://web.archive.org/web/20190220051410/https://www.ark-i... [10]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dEv99vxKjVI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dEv99vxKjVI [11]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ucp0TTmvqOE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ucp0TTmvqOE [12]https://web.archive.org/web/20200709130939/https://www.youtu https://web.archive.org/web/20200709130939/https://www.youtu... [13]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AF2HXId2Xhg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AF2HXId2Xhg [14]https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-interview-axel-spr https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-interview-axel-spr... [15]https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/elon-musk-full-self-drivi https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/elon-musk-full-self-drivi... [16]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vwq_PhtvLwo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vwq_PhtvLwo (Or simply, https://motherfrunker.ca/fsd/ https://motherfrunker.ca/fsd/)
- throwaway71271 2y agoMan I really have to stop reading hackernews comments, its a total bummer. His companies are making rockets, autonomous humanoid robots and autonomous cars, I will cut my left pinky finger to work on any of those, and this is my capslock finger, so I will have to switch away from emacs.. With the worldlabs[1] work maybe they unlock models that do have even better spatial world model and can be used label data even better and faster, or create even better synthetic data so it can unlock FSD even sooner. The fact that LLMs work means there is structure in language that is beyond our understanding, and yet the transformer can discover it and program itself to solve for it. I think that the stupendous amount of compute that is going to be released in 2025 will make it possible to train labelers that can do temporal labeling much better than humans and than the current models, and synthesize and perturb data to train really really good transformers that will outperform 90th percentile humans. Why do you guys think that it can not happen? Maybe its not Tesla that does it, but I certainly think amazing tech is coming. Hopefully it will not be just autonomous humanoid robots with guns paid by the military and patrolling the borders :astonished face: [1]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vIXfYFB7aBI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vIXfYFB7aBI (Fei-Fei Li and Justin Johnson)
- diamondfist25 2y ago[flagged]
- d3bunker 2y agoThe event was objectively smoke in the eyes: - days ago I was reading an article stating that Tesla didn't apply yet for the license to operate autonomous vehicles in the streets. Competitor had their licenses in 8 months or more. I think this is a critical factor to respect the deadline of December 2025; - Just another risible demo in a controlled environment, a movie set: no real life scenario able to demonstrate the effectiveness of the robotaxi technology. This for something should be in exercise before 2025 ends is and indicator that the tech is not ready. "Only cameras" approach IMHO just won't work. - the presentation images suggested that robotaxis should substitute public transport. This not only is bullshit for a number of reasons, it also can influence public transport politics like with the other bullshit technology called Hyperloop that was accepted as the future of transportation by short sighted administrators; - Wireless recharge : oh please ! Apart technical consideration could raise doubt on the smartness of that approach, they really are saying they can create a network of wireless recharge points before the robotaxi go in exercise next year ? - Robobus : wow ! What about electric tram ? I see a pattern here , step by step, they are demonstrating that the real electric revolution is electric public transport, not that electric robot limousine that are a viable and cost effective public transport alternative only in the mind of a megalomaniac billionaire ! - Men, you don't believe this is bullshit ? let's take appointment here December 31st , 2025, to discuss the status of the robotaxi.
- userabchn 2y agoI'm disappointed that it wasn't a single occupant, three-wheeled, ultra-basic microcar limited to 50 km/h to gather and scatter people from public transport stops, solving the last-mile problem.
- panick21_ 2y agoI'm not a Musk hater but this vision of the future just doesn't seem that interesting. I'm from Switzerland, I much rather have trains and well timed buses. Buses already exists and paying drivers isn't actually that big a problem. Society can easily pay for that, if you take into account the reduction in investment and cost you have from other road use. Musk promise of 'less parking lots' can already be easily achieved with technology from 1960. Its not an engineering problem, its social problem. Trains, trams, buses, bikes and walking is far cheaper and more efficient in every measurable way then fancy robotaxis even if they worked, witch they don't really. Can you imagine the horror of a large city where most people each use an individual vehicle? That just dystopia. An small autonomous bus has some uses but at best its a small part of a much larger transport system. The US being so obsessed with robotaxis is just a consequence of 70 years of horrible road design and land usage and city planning.
- yunwal 2y ago> Can you imagine the horror of a large city where most people each use an individual vehicle? That just dystopia. Yes - every American
- newsclues 2y agoIs there a way I can filter out all the ad hominem comments?
- newsclues 2y ago@dang
- silexia 2y agoHN is packed now with Elon Musk haters after the mass firings at Twitter. Anything related to him or his companies has long lists of negative comments. Bitter grapes? Even if Elon cured cancer, there would be haters for his politics and business approach.
- diamondfist25 2y agoI don’t understand why people hate him. But this just shows the wokeness and naiveness of this industry — socially inept people who can only strike keyboards and habe 0 critical thinking on their own O wait I just described the entire SF and tech industry
- Eddy_Viscosity2 2y agoWhy is this a two-seater? A sedan with no driver can easier fit 5 people. Building one for only two is.. why? There are also no steering controls, this this vehicle can't ever be dual-purpose. Even something where steering/gas could be removable attachments, would be better. Allowing a possibility of being driven by a driver should the need arise. But really? A two-seater?
- mensetmanusman 2y agoThis tech will obviously happen eventually, my buddy with the new Y has driven less than 1% on over 1500 miles. Will be great when it happens.
- JohnFen 2y ago> Mr Musk's prediction that production would begin some time "before 2027" So, no big reveal after all? Just another press conference where he once again says "it's coming soon"? I didn't think he was going to unveil anything actually new, but I did honestly think he'd sing a new song about it all. I guess I overestimated him.
- faefox 2y agoSo are we taking bets on what the real price and launch date will be?
- nytesky 2y agoI find these half measure autopilots way more stressful than actually just driving. Level 2-3 FSD is worse experience in my opinion. 1) driving as human — if I see brake lights, I apply brakes: see my turn, turn the wheel. 2) Tesla “driving” - if I see brake lights, I have to evaluate “did FSD See those lights, is it applying brakes” EVERY TIME. Because I need to pay attention. THEN I may apply the brakes and turn wheel (and if you use FSD a LOT, those skills will atrophy). it needs human intervention about once a day. But you never know when that will be. We either need FSD or humans driving. Shared dynamically adhoc responsibility for the car is way way worse. The CyberCab at least improves on that by removing the steering wheel, so when it makes mistakes you just along for the ride. I am a curmudgeon though; I don’t even use cruise control, and the radar following cruise control gives me the same hereby jeebies “is it braking??” Problem
- 1970-01-01 2y agoIf FSD and robo-autonomy isn't fully cracked (level 5) in 1000 days, all of this is vaporware.
- sureglymop 2y agoThis is honestly quite painful to see. Makes me all the happier to live in Switzerland and be able to use great trains and public transport everyday. (It's definitely not cheap though but the comfort is amazing)
- FloNeu 2y agoLmao … I don’t have anything else to say, but feel it had to be said
- tim333 2y agoI must say the show seemed a bit lame and the market seems to agree - TSLA down 8% at present. The robotaxis did 5 mph on cleared streets and so seemed much less impressive than Waymos which can deal with real pedestrians and do 30 mph+ They only had two seats which is not how you'd make a commercial robotaxi and so probably just made for show to try to impress investors. The robots serving drinks etc seem to have been remotely controlled by humans. It's not that impressive when Waymo are driving people around in real life and also various robotaxis in China eg. https://youtu.be/izLfWY4c0Ko https://youtu.be/izLfWY4c0Ko I've always defended Musk saying robotaxis will be here in a year or two over the last decade because new tech is hard but they now look a bit in danger of being left behind by the competition.
- valval 2y agoThe race to full self driving is not going to be close. Tesla has no competition. The anti-Tesla sentiment here is hilarious to watch though. All because this place is largely leftist, and their CEO is on the right.
- elAhmo 2y agoFor me the surprising thing is that the stock fell "just" 8% after this event. No sane investor should believe anything CEO says, given he is running multiple companies, is busy with upcoming election, as well as propagating conspiracy theories and hate speech on his platform. After a decade of lies, this is another nail in the coffin and I honestly can't believe the marketcap of this company hasn't been significantly affected by something that was supposed to be a big reveal of those promises.
- H12 2y agoOne thing confuses me... Why invest so much into automony on streets/roads when most (all?) US trains/trams/busses still have operators? Elon said himself that busses have 5x the operating cost of robo-taxis (1$ vs 20¢ per hour), but failed to mention that a typical bus carries 25x people. Presumably the cost delta is due to payroll for a human operators & janitors, so if busses already have 5x max throughout per $ in a worst-case comparison, why not put more energy into driving down costs on the more efficient modality? I imagine it would be an easier problem to solve too, as you could could define constraints on your operating environment. Dedicated travel lanes, rail, and preprogrammed routes seem like they'd massively reduce the complexity of the problem. I could also envision a decent financial argument for moving from a customer base of general-consumers to one of cities & local govt. If a 5x operating cost reduction is feasible, I could see "public transit automation" making for a pretty compelling capital project.
- TrapLord_Rhodo 2y agoI'm confused, cause all these comments seem to just be plain lies? Have anyone actually driven in a tesla using FSD? It's freaking awesome. I literally drive to and from work everyday and pretty much never have to put my hands on the wheel unless i want to go faster.