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So, after Twitter and Meta layoffs there will be around 15,000 people looking for the job. In one moment. With other layoffs it can be counted over 20,000 peopl
by nokeya 4y ago
So, after Twitter and Meta layoffs there will be around 15,000 people looking for the job. In one moment. With other layoffs it can be counted over 20,000 people IMHO.
Will this over flood the market and bring expectations and salaries down?
- kilolima 4y agoYes, because they will be replaced with offshore labor or visa workers.
- robertlagrant 4y agoDepends on the balance of what sort of roles are laid off.
- whatwherewhy 4y agoIn the small central EU country where I live, that wouldn't even saturate the open programmer positions - just about 1/10 of it. I'd be very surprised if it saturated the US market in any measurable way. If anything this just means these people will be working on more different products, and that means more opportunities for even more programmers in the future.
- weatherlite 4y agoYou're right but its not as if only Meta are firing or we're anywhere close to this recession ending. There's gonna be a bunch of pain to come still unfortunately.
- dagw 4y agoWhile it might not saturate the US job market as a whole, it will saturate the parts of the local programmer market that can come even close to matching the sorts of salaries these people where probably paid. If they're willing to move to anywhere in the US and/or take a 50+% pay cut then they'll have no problem getting a job. If they all want to stay where they are and get paid within 20% of their current salary then lots of people will end up without a job.
- habinero 4y agoOr they'll start their own companies. Not a bad time to do it.
- whywhywhywhy 4y agoIf they’re doing that then it means Meta, Twitter, Stripe, etc process got rid of the wrong people.
- HgW33WiY6m3W4H9 4y agoI work at Stripe. I can’t throw a proverbial paper clip at this company without hitting someone who could be founding a company right now. There’s no way to lay off 14% of Stripe without setting free scores of future founders.
- naijaboiler 4y agohubris of tech workers. as if starting successful companies is just that easy
- sillysaurusx 4y agoIt’s helpful to remember that we’re collectively doing about 1% of what we theoretically could be accomplishing. If you somehow forced someone to sit and practice drawing a hand for eight hours a day, they would get surprisingly far as an artist. Being a founder isn’t too dissimilar. Determination tends to be decisive. If you spent eight hours a day trying to make a small group of users love you, you’d get surprisingly far. I think that’s what they mean about potential founders at Stripe. There’s a lot of potential energy that a layoff might release.
- andsoitis 4y agomy guess is that most, if not nearly all, successful founders were pulled into that position (i.e. self-directed) vs pushed out of desperation.
- KingOfCoders 4y agoDid I misread or you live in a small central EU country with 200.000 open tech positions?
- whatwherewhy 4y agoWell to be honest 1/10 was a little bit of overstatement, but yeah every year there's a governmental report about how this country is missing 150k programmers so it's about 1/8 or so.
- KingOfCoders 4y agoWe have this too in Germany, but it's usually not based on open positions but some "we would need this to grow the GDP further industry is saying they miss these number of people" from some lobbying group like Bitkom. But Chapeau! for your country.
- netheril96 4y ago> there's a governmental report about how this country is missing 150k programmers You shouldn't take these governmental reports at face value. In my country, we see a lot of these reports too, and for all kinds of professions. Most of the time it just means that the corporate want more people willing to work for less.
- Aeolun 4y agoWell, yes. But if all the corporates only want to hire people at that price it’s still a shortage. It’s just a shortage of shrubs.
- whimsicalism 4y agoThat's quite explicitly not a shortage in the economic sense.
- koliber 4y agoKeep in mind that government reports have a time lag. It's based on someone doing research some time ago. The time lag could easily be months. If it was 100% true at the time of research, the current situation may be very different. Meta was hiring aggressively at the beginning of the year, as were many other companies.
- tifadg1 4y agoI'm quite interested in learning which small central EU country has 150k outstanding programming jobs.
- rco8786 4y agoSame
- alvis 4y agoSurely they're not all engineers, many are sales and admin positions. But the number is still large tho
- przefur 4y agoRomania? Poland?
- ChuckNorris89 4y agoRomania and Poland aren't exactly small by European standards, in fact they're some of the biggest by population and area. And Romania is not Central but Eastern European [1], so that's out. Small and Central European would be Hungary, Slovakia, Czechia, Austria, Slovenia, Switzerland based on the most widely used definition of Central Europe [1] [1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_Europe#/media/File:Central_Europe_(Brockhaus).svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_Europe#/media/File:Cen...
- someweirdperson 4y agoSmall would be Luxembourg.
- ChuckNorris89 4y agoLuxembourg is not Central European. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_Europe https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_Europe
- 4y ago
- throwaway0x7E6 4y agomost of the people being laid off are not programmers
- vaxman 4y agoThey used to say “assets have legs in silicon valley” but not in Horizon World!
- xbmcuser 4y agoI think the pay will go down its the meta and google etc that have been pushing up the salaries without the demand from them the pressure on salaries will bring them down.
- mythhouse 4y ago> I'd be very surprised if it saturated the US market in any measurable way. Most of meta enigneers won't be working for 120k midwest coding job if they can avoid it. So spread will be focused on similar pay positions vs distributed unifromly.
- amusedcyclist 4y agoGoing off the article it sounds like most of the layoffs are in business and recruiting so I suspect a small-ish fraction of the layoffs will be programmers
- tobase 4y agoIsn't that forecasted by the same people who now says that they didn't see this coming? :)
- vaxman 4y agoYeah, fly ‘em all to a “small central EU country” which shall henceforth be known as LuxemValley. As a bonus, ‘errbody working in LuxemValley shall be known as the SiliconBourg and be issued a mug, backpack and Chemin de Fer paddle. :D Seriously, under current law, H1B workers will be even more locked-out of US jobs until these newly RIFed US workers land somewhere, but India doesn’t really depend on H1B contractor revenue like it did during the mass RIFs of the “Dot Com Bust.” No, now Indian citizens can work comfortably, efficiently and economically from India, like many of the far more expensive (and now RIFed) US workers had been doing from their US homes. For those RIFed US workers to compete with more economical India-based workers, they’re going to need to either get very small and crawl under the door to struggling US employers (by lower their salaries while abandoning remote work) or maybe they’ll need to cut expenses by moving to a “small central EU country” and get paid in Euros.
- Firmwarrior 4y agoOr they'll start their own companies and crush the competition like insects, while the dinosaur companies full of contractors slowly die out just like we saw in the 80s, 90s, 00s, and 10s
- vaxman 4y agoI hear you, but things will be different this time around. It would take me 20 minutes to explain, but gist is there is a HUGE diff between senior engineer and senior tech, there was no H1B phenom until 2001, almost no senior level engineers (cough) remaining in the biz until around 2006 (thanks to dot-com bust nuclear winter) and balance wasn't even restored until recently (very recently) because, you know, engineers with 10 years experience aren't half as confident as techs with 5 years experience. If you're a senior level engineer who can write operating systems, firmware and glance at a data center blueprint and see RF signaling issues as easily as you can look at a schematic and see DMA inefficiencies, are you going to pledge allegiance to a turd like company run into the ground by the spoiled Boomers or are you going to start your own company (or throw in with some hungrah folks you maybe met saving from the supremely over-confident senior technician crowd)? This time around, those Strange Conditions don't exist anymore and, much as it was in the 80s, you can't buy/refi a house in the US unless you can show significant ATR and lastly, with tightening credit (that comes with higher interest rates and, for now at least, higher home prices), you are going to need to be compensated in greenbacks (not stock) and show stability (not 1-3 years per gig)...all things that are harder in startup-land. For now, find another gig with a large company, go overseas (Europe not Middle Eassssst) if you have to. I will write a book, but they won't let me publish until the movie is done roflmao
- smcl 4y agoI reckon 11k would pretty well fill all the available tech roles in Czech Republic (which fits the "small Central European" description). God knows where they'd live though, rents + prices would explode
- swalsh 4y agoI don't see it, I used to get a few emails from recruiters every day. The other day I got 1, and it made me realize it's been literally weeks since I had one. Lots of companies froze their hiring. The music is stopping, and there's a lot less chairs. Not everyone is going to find a new seat.
- spaceman_2020 4y agoTrue, but these aren't ordinary engineers who'll settle for ordinary salaries. These are the top paid engineers in the industry - there are practically no places that can hire all 20,000 of them at their current salaries.
- ChrisMarshallNY 4y agoIt does mean that a lot of folks will be looking for work, expecting really big salaries. Because they have become used to a very high standard of living, these salaries will actually be required. MANGA companies pay ridiculously well. I suspect a lot of "Reality sh*t sandwiches" will be in people's lunchboxes.
- ransom1538 4y ago"these salaries will actually be required." I wonder if foreclosures spike. Bay area.
- ChrisMarshallNY 4y agoYup. I suspect a lot of these folks are living in overpriced rental apartments in SF (and Brooklyn).
- zero_ 4y agoDoes the small EU country you are living in pay FAANG level salaries (200k and more) for their developers? Because in the small central EU country where I live, they always say skilled workers are in demand until you tell them your desired salary ;-)
- eastbound 4y ago“Oui mais vous avez des tickets resto” — Explanation: French people seem always very happy with low salaries as long as they have social benefits such as 4,60€ ticket for restaurant at lunch. And free healthcare, which they pay 800€ per month (for a 65k€ salary). They really need some economy lessons. If I were a true capitalist, I’d teach them socialism for free.
- fy20 4y agoSimilar here. Over the summer my country of 3m people, reached its yearly immigration quota in tech jobs of 16,000. And that doesn't include people moving inside the EU or refugees from Ukraine.
- TheOsiris 4y agothe effect this kind of thing has on the broader market is that it makes everyone else reconsider their hiring plans. I doubt there will be as many open positions after this announcement and it won't all be from hiring
- samstave 4y agoThe real problem to worry about is hiring practices, shitty HR people, algo-based auto rejecting and shitty fucking interviewers... THIS will have impact on these people suffering to find a new position.... So really what needs to happen is companies need to be reaching out URGENTLY to those have been kicked to the curb. There is thousands of years of experience this population carries.
- KptMarchewa 4y agoVery different roles. Also, corporate America employs millions of people, so this is not a significant percent.
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- mrits 4y agoAlso a lot of those people are going to take time off. A large number of high earners that have worked at a place for a decade and now have ~9 months paid vacation.
- tigeroil 4y ago
- oblio 4y agoObviously, if this continues at this rate. We'll be able to judge in 3-6 months the full impact. Anyone who tells you otherwise is living in Lalaland. The main thing is figuring out what's the full impact. If it's 10%+ of tech workers, the golden days are over for the vast majority of tech workers.
- mathverse 4y agoI wonder if comments like yours are said in good faith or in fear or out of pure ignorance. Or all of the above combined. Proportionally these numbers would not make a difference in a small European country.
- oblio 4y agoThese numbers are just the start of the avalanche... There have been a lot of pie-in-the-sky initiatives, especially as the result of the massive cash infusions during Covid. Now all that easy money is going away. The current numbers don't mean much, but they're just the start.
- nkozyra 4y agoThat's cyclical, though. The question is always how long the cycle lasts.
- oblio 4y agoTrue. If recovery is faster than 6-12 months, life is comparatively good. If recovery starts taking a few years, quality of life drops a lot.
- dsq 4y agoIt will probably spill over into the rest of the economy. No matter how generous the severance, a fired worker isn't going to be buying new cars, buying houses, or taking expensive vacations.
- habinero 4y ago
- maltelandwehr 4y agoIf you include Stripe, Klarna, Netflix, Uber, Robinhood, Snap, Lyft, etc. tech layoffs in recent months have topped 100,000 now.
- onlyrealcuzzo 4y agoWhich is about how many people Google itself hired over the course of the Pandemic, for context. So it's not the end of the world. It really is a pretty minor set back so far.
- ransom1538 4y ago[deleted]
- lxrbst 4y agoThese are mostly recruiters and biz people being laid off, from all of those companies. Maybe stop spewing panic infused ignorance.
- ransom1538 4y ago[deleted]
- lxrbst 4y agoThe submission itself is such a link. Did you even read it, or just dive straight into the comments? > Recruiting will be disproportionately affected since we’re planning to hire fewer people next year. We’re also restructuring our business teams more substantially.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- selfmodruntime 4y agoI can't believe google hired 100k people during the pandemic. Can you source this claim?
- gonzo41 4y agoIt will have a big effect on salaries, however, it'd be a momentous opportunity for upcoming startups to pick up some bargain basement talent.
- oblio 4y ago"Can someone think of the shareholder value?" Keep in mind it's always about people, not about soulless entities.
- whatwherewhy 4y agoLet me shed a tear for these massively overpaid engineers who will now have to make only measly 2-3x of the average wage
- oblio 4y agoThey're still workers, don't be silly.
- gonzo41 4y agoThey'll have lots of options, and importantly, if they do cycle back into startup land, they may just pick a winner.
- nemo44x 4y agoThe next generation of startups that will become giants are being started now. Right now is a great time to start something new.
- scarface74 4y agoThe US has 2.7 million developers. Who knows? They may have to sully themselves and become “enterprise developers” like most of the other 2.7 million developers…
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- alexfoo 4y agohttps://layoffs.fyi/ https://layoffs.fyi/
- jannes 4y agoShouldn't salaries just go down to pre-pandemic levels like the headcounts? (not even sure if they increased during the pandemic) According to the companies that's all that's happening here.
- pimbrah 4y agosalaries rarely and hardly ever go down. however inflation does exactly that in real terms. This is an interesting article about it: https://www.interfluidity.com/v2/9566.html https://www.interfluidity.com/v2/9566.html
- jillesvangurp 4y agoThey are actually going down because of inflation and the lack of a full compensation for that. You get the same money but it's worth less. As for unemployment figures; apparently they are very low right now. Which suggests companies actually need to offer more to be able to fill open vacancies. A few tens of thousands highly employable people leaving the fang companies is not going to change that.
- kasey_junk 4y agoLots of these peoples compensation package is largely equity based. Their pay has already taken a major hit.
- marcus_holmes 4y agoI remember the dot-com (and Y2K) bust, when all the people who got into tech for the money (and not the love of it) suddenly decided to switch career. I hope the same happens now.
- Ocerge 4y agoSo you're implying only people who are passionate about tech should be allowed to work in tech? This does not hold water for almost any profession. Tech pays extremely well, and if you can do the work, who cares how you feel about it?
- marcus_holmes 4y agoI want my colleagues to care deeply about the work we do together. I don't think that's a bad thing.
- zmxz 4y agoYou're reading it wrong. If you can do the work, awesome, no one cares how you feel about it. But that's the keyword: *IF* you can. People who went into IT for the love of it are diligent by default (from my personal experience) and CAN do the work. Then you get people who enter IT for the money (nothing wrong with that) and not all of them can do the work. Those are the show-stoppers usually which incur various debts (from tech-debt to actual financial debt) because you end up having to carry them. Let's not pretend as if they don't exist, there's so many of them.
- strix_varius 4y agoAbsolutely, and it's hugely demoralizing to work with them. A person like that was moved off of my team recently, and the general lift on the team from just having them gone has been astounding. Everything is up: velocity, stability, even just the vibe of technical planning sessions.
- chasd00 4y ago
- passion__desire 4y agoA link if you need to keep track of. https://layoffs.fyi/ https://layoffs.fyi/
- three_seagrass 4y agoThis is a pretty slick use of AirTable, ngl.
- _alex_ 4y agomore than that. Here's a tracker: https://layoffs.fyi https://layoffs.fyi
- googlryas 4y agoIt's not a given that everyone will be looking for a job immediately. They're getting a multi-month severance package. Some will look immediately - some will take a breather and start looking in a few months - some will take the time to switch careers or go back to school. Also, it is 15,000 people presumably located around the globe - not just 15,000 people in Menlo Park.
- tootie 4y agoComps will come down from the stratosphere but good devs will not be unemployed long. They may fall to less exciting roles at banks or other traditional tech, but there's still tons of demand.
- automatic6131 4y ago>Will this over flood the market and bring expectations and salaries down? Well I predict two things: One, the days of $200-500k TC being common and widespread are going to end. If you're in this bracket, or about to break into it, yeah be worried, it's probably going to evaporate. Two, the CV value of Meta, Snap, Stripe, etc. is also going to end. I don't think they will command the same premium in the jobs market from now(ish) onward.
- alfalfasprout 4y agoNot really. If anything junior engineers are not going to see comp like this going forward. But it's still incredibly hard to hire more senior folks even with big comp packages and they do command a premium. Expect the median to go down, doubtful the top 25% will change much.
- 015a 4y agoIts also worth noting: Its easy to get scared by a number like "11,000", but just pulling estimates out of my ass; engineering likely represented less than 20%, and the bias toward those let go in engineering is likely junior. Not asserting no one senior was let go; just proportionality. Here's what I'd add: Its extremely difficult to hire really talented senior engineers. Its easy to look at layoffs as "great, we should be able to find senior talent now"; but the opposite may actually be true. Layoffs, at least in otherwise "fine" companies, will predominately not impact senior engineers, and they'll also be less likely to leave. Moreover, the industry is effectively building a wall to breach into seniority; the pathway from junior to senior is harder and harder, even going back a year or two, and many of these junior/normal devs were massively compensated at these roles. My heart goes out to the junior devs right now; there really are two industries and job markets.
- ripper1138 4y agoIt was obvious that those days were going to end eventually, it was never going to be sustainable. A few people I knew were deciding between job offers at beginning of this year and I straight up said take the most comp, this shit isn’t gonna last forever…
- romanovcode 4y agoI doubt that even 5% are software developers.
- jressey 4y agoMy 2 cents is that it's going to be mostly recruiters, sales, customer success, and other misc operations folks. That's the pattern I've been observing since the post-covid layoffs have begun.
- Vibgyor5 4y agoplenty of PMs and PMMs being let go fwiw as per my feed
- blsapologist42 4y agoThe Meta layoff has many engineers affected. Probably at least ~2000
- btbuildem 4y agoRight.. so that's barely 1/5th of the layoffs
- Bluecobra 4y agoMakes me wonder if there’s enough layoffs coupled with a recession, corps would use this to get people back in the office and eliminate WFH.
- acjohnson55 4y agoThey can try. But it would be a better time to build a team without the overhead of renting office space. I guess it depends on whether companies see an opportunity to wind back leverage from employees or to embrace new possibilities.
- grumple 4y agoThere are hundreds of thousands of new software jobs in the US every year. Way more globally. This is a drop in the bucket. Shit, I get messaged about a thousand software jobs per year and I'm just one guy.
- ActionHank 4y agoThe difference here is that it is all at once, and those same companies are slowing hiring. Net effect is that there are loads more people with prominent names on their resumes competing for those jobs that the recruiters are canvasing en masse with. Right now if you replied to one of those positions they'd likely turn you down after a screening call because the calibre of candidates on the market is really high.
- patothon 4y agoNot all these people have the same jobs though so I’m not sure what you are getting at.
- maerF0x0 4y agoAugust US added 315K jobs including 68K professional services and 7K information (idk what those categories actually mean). There's jobs for everyone who was laid off, but unclear if they're as good/lucrative. source: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/02/heres-where-the-jobs-are-for-august-2022-in-one-chart.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/02/heres-where-the-jobs-are-for...
- mymyairduster 4y agoYeah, it's a great time for these people to finally learn to code
- rajman187 4y agoif reports are to be believed, large swaths of these layoffs were in business and recruiting units, much less so engineering, so not exactly 15k+ new applications coming in
- sytelus 4y agoPer last job report in US, there were two positions for every person finding normal jobs. For IT, I would think that ratio is twice. However, the biggest issue that people have to deal with: (1) Meta paid 2X to 4X higher than regular employers so that’s massive pay cuts for the folks, (2) they lost the unvested stock aka their hold out compensation of past 4 years they worked for. So, this would be huge financial setback for impacted people akin to losing half of their wealth and cutting down their future income as well in half.
- matt-attack 4y agoI googled but I see zero references to "hold out" compensation. Is that actually a term?
- pmmertens 4y agoOutside of the 2:1 job postings to job seekers ratio, none of what you're saying here is correct.
- jeffreyrogers 4y agoMeta does pay higher (maybe not 2x higher) and the message in OP says employees will get their November 2022 vesting, which implies they won't get any future vested stock.
- disgruntledphd2 4y agoWell no because they no longer work for FB. But they still have all their vested stock.
- jeffreyrogers 4y agoYes, which is what the GP post said, they lose their unvested stock. By future vested I meant, stock that will vest after they are laid off. Could've been clearer I guess.
- dcchambers 4y agoWill this saturate the market for all open programming/software engineering positions? No. Will it disturb the market for engineers expecting to make $500k/yr 2 years out of school? Absolutely. But most tech stocks being down 50%+ YTD had already done that. I think there's going to be a lot more layoffs announced from far more companies over the next 6-12 months. I think all of those people will be able to find jobs, but I think many of them will have to settle for significant pay cuts. The insane TCs driven by an inflated stock market that were seen in certain markets/from certain companies are certainly going away for a long while. Personally, I wish that people in our industry would push for a larger base salary-based comp and less stock-based.