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Scotland starts renewed case for independence

351 points by binbag 4y ago

tomp 4y ago
My bet is that Spain will block their accession to the EU.
Tycho 4y ago
The nation voted No in 2014 so they should probably leave it a bit before angling for another referendum. 20 years perhaps.
binbag 4y ago
I posted this and went out for the day, so I'm a bit late now to comment but here goes. I'm Scottish and I voted no the first time round. My arguement was always "I've more in common with people from Manchester, Liverpool or London than I do with Highlanders and 'nationalists'" (I'm in Glasgow, which is the third largest UK city and the largest in Scotland). But then we were taken out of the EU and since then the UK has become (been unmasked as?) very right wing, led by a deeply unpleasant right wing of the nominally centre-right Tory party. Centre-left politics (primarily social but also economic) have been ruined, as a result of various factors at play in the last 5 years or so. My kinship with other UK cities is no longer reason enough to support the union. I manage a company registered in Scotland and it is now as difficult for us to do business with France or Spain as with India or Canada. Unlike those business owners who like the idea of a captive UK market, I want our company to compete and export globally, and we have been deprived of simple access to the world's largest trading bloc. As for the prospect of an independent Scotland joining the EU, I see no hurdles to that. Now that the UK has left the EU, it is absolutely in the EU's interest to allow Scotland, having left the EU unwillingly, to rejoin. For these reasons I'm inclined to vote yes if a second referendum is held, but I'm not 100% sure and could change my mind depending on the economic and social plans put forward.
known 4y ago
fennecfoxy 4y ago
All power to them! I guess the question of "where do we draw lines for allowing separatism" is answered by "wherever there are significant cultural divides". Though I am worried for an independent Scotland's economy: they may gain some business, but some will withdraw, the rest of the UK will reconsider how tightly integrated its economy should be with Scotland, they'll likely lose the use of the GBP, which holds much value in itself; if they can't join the EU and use the Euro then the Scottish Pound problem will happen all over again.
samwillis 4y ago
Can’t say I blame them now (I will be sad but can see why under the current environment), in fact could we move the Scottish border a little further south? Maybe just annex all but SW1 to be part of an independent European nation…
afavour 4y ago
As a Brit that didn’t want Scotland to be independent last time around: good luck to them. Brexit has shown very clearly that Scotland wants to chart a different path to England and IMO they should be allowed to do it. …just be generous to English folks seeking asylum from Tory rule, yeah?
- donedealomg 4y ago
- atc 4y ago
- c16 4y ago
  In full agreement. The UK is now a joke of a country, all the best to them.
  - easytiger 4y ago
    Compared with whom and on what criteria?
    - melenaboija 4y ago
      Compared to what it was before brexit
    - gspr 4y ago
      For an easy case: compared to itself before Brexit.
    - Bouncingsoul1 4y ago
      criteria:prime minister, with whom: anyone ;)
    - c16 4y ago
      1. A PM who lies about attending a party, and runs with the lie until he is forced to admit it by a report and photographic evidence. 2. A PM who lied to the Queen. 3. Food poverty on the up [1] 5. £350m a week for NHS post Brexit, and yet that was a blatant lie. NHS now struggling with many staff quitting post covid and as a result of increased work load due to brexit. The list goes on. [1] British medical journal (https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/347/bmj.f7157/F1.large.jpg https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/347/bmj.f7157/F1.large.jpg)
neals 4y ago
Sound great, let England apply to join Scotland in a few years time.
lordnacho 4y ago
I don't see why not. The whole leaving the EU thing is a reasonable cause for independence. In general I like smaller units of government too, and it's not as if they can't cooperate with the UK in areas where they agree. I do have a horse in this race as I have Scottish family who'd have more choices with an EU passport.
- rightbyte 4y ago
  You don't have to join Schengen border cooperation.
  - closewith 4y ago
    All EU accession states are legally bound to join Schengen, with the exception of Ireland, which during the negotiations for the Treaty of Amsterdam received (along with the UK) an opt-out. No other nations have this opt-out.
    - iso1631 4y ago
      Yet not all nations are in Schengen. If Scotland were allowed to join the EU (despite Spain's veto) I have no doubt there would be an acceptance that it could remain in the CTA with Ireland and the rest of UK
      - closewith 4y ago
        I'd have the opposite view. It seems unlikely that the bloc will ever provide opt-outs going forward given the difficulties they've caused to date.
        iso1631 4y ago
        Unlike Denmark, Sweden doesn't have an optout for the Euro, yet hasn't joined.
        4y ago
tick_tock_tick 4y ago
It's one thing to push for independence itself to gain full sovereignty, though with the implication they'd join the EU right away they wouldn't have it for long, but don't pretend like it's somehow going to make Scotland "better".
- Dobbs 4y ago
  But Scotland (and the rest of the UK) were better before leaving the EU. On the whole Scotish voters didn't want to leave the EU, to the point that it was one of the primary arguments that Boris used in the independence referendum, that if they left the UK they wouldn't necessarily have EU membership any more. Well they lost it anyways, so why shouldn't they chart their own path back? I really hate the word sovereignty beign thrown around because in and of itself it doesn't mean anything. At least not in the way that Brexitiers use it.
- xxs 4y ago
  They'd have a lot higher degree of freedom in the EU, compared the to the UK where their votes barely count for anything as witnessed by the Brexit and any other general poll.
- mvc 4y ago
  > don't pretend like it's somehow going to make Scotland "better". Isn't that the essence of politics? You're basically trying to convince people that the system would be "better" if things were run the way you proscribe vs someone else. Of course different people have different preferences so it's likely some will perceive it as "better" and others will perceive it as "worse".
- Doctor_Fegg 4y ago
  For a very large percentage of voters, "no Tory government ever again" automatically equates to "better". You might not agree but you can surely see the logic.
bestinterest 4y ago
I voted no last time round as I was not convinced on the economic side of things. Truthfully I'm still not convinced but I'm finding it hard to justify staying on the sinking ship of the UK. I'd rather fail as a country by our own decisions rather than the Scottish government always being able to point to Westminister for failure. I wish more world wide economists took time to write arguments for/against Scottish independence as I find it hard to see the longer term plan.
- yung_steezy 4y ago
  Scotland would make a good tax haven since it has a relatively small, homogeneous, and centralised population.
- hardlianotion 4y ago
  Most economists worldwide have other priorities.
- reillyse 4y ago
  I think it's pretty easy to see examples of what Scotland could be. Have a look over the Irish sea and Ireland is doing very well for itself just a little over 100 years after independence ("full" independence obviously happening slightly later). It seems very obvious to me that when decisions are made locally they are made in the interests of the people who are local. Being on the periphery of a country is not ideal. Ireland had suffered for it in the past and became very poor as a result of colonization but has rebounded very significantly. Scotland, despite having massive resources is a very very poor and depressed country. If the oil wealth from the North Sea had stayed in Scotland, you could be having a Norway style moment but instead that wealth has gone south.
  - smcl 4y ago
    > very very poor and depressed country Scotland suffered greatly from the decline of a few key industries in the 70s and 80s so and parts of it are indeed poor and in decline. But if you're to categorise a country by its very poorest areas, you'll end up saying the USA, France, England are very very poor and depressed. Scotland isn't Norway - that ship has long sailed and we should discard any ideas that oil wealth can still take us there. But it's not, no offense intended, Moldova and it's wrong to think of it that way.
jack_riminton 4y ago
As an Englishman I say good luck to them. If it means them leaving the UK to join the EU then it might force the rest of the UK to rejoin as well!
4dregress 4y ago
I don't see it happening, we've been through far too much in the last 10 years to inflict even more damage. I've asked this question many times but how is it feasible for Scotland to become Independent: 1. They currently don't meet the requirements to join the EU. Are they going to skip the current waiting list? 2. How will they create a military? 3. Still a big question mark over currency and Scotland's debt. 4. Ownership of Natural Resources?
- smcl 4y ago
  If there was a waiting list then there would have been no expansion since 1987 at least, when Turkey began negotiation.
- Etheryte 4y ago
  Perhaps I simply don't understand what you mean, but none of those questions seem very complex? For 1-3, see any Baltic states in the early 90s who are now a part of the EU. Just because you don't meet the requirements to join right away doesn't mean you can't do it over time. As for 4, naturally Scotland would own its own natural resources, what's ambiguous about that?
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - 4dregress 4y ago
    Unfortunately it's not the 90's and a lot of things have changed in geopolitics. France is quite against expansion and there are a lot of questions around what to do with Ukraine. Scotland wanting to join as an unproven independent is really unlikely. https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2020/02/05/what-would-it-take-for-scotland-to-rejoin-the-eu-as-an-independent-state/ https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2020/02/05/what-would-it-...
- Erikun 4y ago
  The biggest hurdle for Scotland joining the EU arent the requirements, they'd likely pass those without too much issues. The biggest hurdle is probably Spain who wouldn't want to give the Catalan independence movement a good example.
Blackstone4 4y ago
I feel like the Scotts only push hard for independence when the price of oil is high....because it balances the budget and makes independence look more attractive..
- ggm 4y ago
  Not enough of the reserves lie in Scottish waters. If you look at the sea area mapping the line runs a lot more north by Northeast than people expect. Scotland will make shitloads exporting hydro electricity. Probably more than oil and gas royalties
  - mvc 4y ago
    > Scotland will make shitloads exporting hydro electricity I doubt that. Hydro doesn't seem very exportable. hydro-tech should be though and Scotland could be well placed to attract investment in that (if only we weren't losing so many scientists to the EU)
    - ggm 4y ago
      Scotland exported 19Twh of electricity to England in 2021, which was about 30% of its generating capacity. It represented around 10% of english electricity power needs. It's on a growth trend, the wind farm on dogger bank may alter the balance.
      - mvc 4y ago
        > Scotland exported 19Twh of electricity to England in 2021, which was about 30% of its generating capacity. True but the rate it gets for that electricity is lower than the rate recieved by power companies operating in the south. This is because there is an operating cost of maintaining the network that allows the energy to flow to the point of use. The cost of getting it to Europe would be even greater. http://www.scottishenergynews.com/higher-connection-charges-in-scotland-than-ruk-are-no-barrier-to-electricity-generators-says-national-grid-chief/ http://www.scottishenergynews.com/higher-connection-charges-...
  - 4y ago
Distozion 4y ago
While as someone living in London, I fully agree that Scotland should have sovereignty without the English BS, I do find it chuckle worthy the url they created for this cause: "independence-modern-world-wealthier-happier-fairer-not-scotland". I think their marketing team needs to do some work on that one and maybe a bolder call to action than "Why not Scotland" while they're at it :D
Erikun 4y ago
It’s certainly hard to argue that Scotland shouldn’t be allowed to hold a referendum again. Usually I feel that the one they had a few years back should stand but with brexit the situation feels sufficiently changed that the old result feels dated. But at the same time, the lesson should be that a simple majority is not a sufficient result. Either a qualified majority of some sort, with minimum participation threshold, or maybe two referendums with a general election in between sounds about right.
- Engineering-MD 4y ago
  A higher threshold would be sensible. The difficulty is if you keeping asking a question, 15 No’s and 1 yes means yes.
- camjw 4y ago
  Indyref1 got 85% turnout (highest ever turnout for a democratic event in the UK) so at least any reasonable minimum participation threshold should be easily reached.
trollied 4y ago
I'd be very interested to see a breakdown of the economics behind this ever happening. Anyone got a decent link/article they can share?
- haunter 4y ago
  Here is the government's paper from 2013 made before the 2014 referendum. Extensively covers the economics and many other topics https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/strategy-plan/2013/11/scotlands-future/documents/scotlands-future-guide-independent-scotland/scotlands-future-guide-independent-scotland/govscot%3Adocument/00439021.pdf https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publ...
- randomcarbloke 4y ago
  Ultimately it's a dumber idea than Brexit.
chillydawg 4y ago
One quite important issue is the border. English and Scottish people will almost certainly never tolerate any kind of friction at that border. We've been moving across it seamlessly for centuries, families are mixed, businesses straddle the border, etc. If the Northern Ireland debacle has shown us anything, it's if Scotland were to leave and then join the EU that border would become an absolute political nightmare. The EU has an absolutist position on border integrity, but locals have an absolutist position of border porosity. I don't think there's a compromise that both sides could tolerate.
- melenaboija 4y ago
  > The EU has an absolutist position on border integrity And do you have an opinion about UK position on border integrity?
- espadrine 4y ago
  Another way to look at the Northern Ireland precedent, is that a compromise was found. People could argue that the same text can be reused.
  - KSteffensen 4y ago
    A compromise that Johnson is now unilaterally reneging on. Apparently somebody figured out that it is actually the same compromise that was rejected when presented by Teresa May. No workable solution has been found for Northern Ireland. At least England/Scotland border doesn't have the bagage of the troubles, but it'll still be a mess.
  - Milner08 4y ago
    The text they are currently trying to rip up against the will of the EU? The only viable solution is that the UK rejoins the EU or becomes subservient to it... but neither will happen anytime soon.
  - consp 4y ago
    You do realise that the UK is trying to break that NI protocol unilaterally? That is a very poor example right now.
floitsch 4y ago
Interesting fact: the Anglo-Scottish border is significantly shorter than the one separating Northern Ireland from Ireland: 154km vs 499km.
inglor_cz 4y ago
I still can't really see the case for Scottish independence except nationalism. Scotland has been part of the UK for more than 300 years. It is so tightly integrated into its society and market that a hard border would be rather painful. We have an example of the successor states of Austria-Hungary once the empire collapsed at the end of WWI. The economic situation of businesses that suddenly faced high tariffs accessing their traditional markets was dire and likely paved way for the Great Depression in Central and Eastern Europe being even worse than it had to be. Scottish independence seems to me a solution in search of a problem.
- detritus 4y ago
  May I ask where you are from? My blood is Scottish and I grew up in the North of England and I can tell you that in the late 90s there was a lot of talk of a Northern Assembly to better represent that end of the country versus Westminster, never mind Scottish parliament or independence. When I used to travel to London (where I now reside) regularly as a child, I was always bemused by how much of a bubble there was around the South East, in terms of people's consciousness, perspective and blunt media focus. There really was - and still moreso is - a curious myopia for anything North of Watford. I've not lived up North for over twenty years, but I'm pretty sure the sentiment up there's not gotten any weaker... .
- manmal 4y ago
  Joining the EU is not a good case?
- dubeye 4y ago
  The integration is part of the problem. Scotland ends up paying for things like HS2 and other London centric. English regions have same issue arguably, but Scotland alone has some hope to rectify.
  - kmlx 4y ago
    > Scotland ends up paying for things like HS2 and other London centric. i find it hard to believe Scottish people don't travel outside of Scotland.
physicsguy 4y ago
With hard headed view, I struggle to see that an independent Scotland will be economically able to deal with large cuts to public sector spending that would almost certainly be required. Per capita spending is already higher in Scotland than in the rest of the UK. Scottish companies have debts denominated in pounds. There would almost certainly be capital flight to rUK. Large businesses may relocate. There is no plan for a new currency, which would leave Scotland either with a weaker currency than sterling, or with a currency it has no influence over. The UK is obviously suffering economically because of Brexit - an economic relationship that was built up over 40 years or so. Scotland, England and Wales have been a country since 1707. Just imagine the complication of breaking that. It makes Brexit look like a tiny job. Scotland would need to set up mirrors of institutions completely administered by Westminster at great cost, with a shrinking and aging population which is poorer, less educated and less healthy than the rest of the UK, even despite much of the things influencing that (healthcare, education) being devolved to the Scottish government since 1997. I certainly don’t think it’s impossible. But I think it’s like Irish independence - it took the best part of 70 years for Ireland to economically recover. Over that time there was vast emigration to the UK and the US. Part of that was my own family who moved to the UK in the 1950s because of terrible job prospects in the Republic.
- nickd2001 4y ago
  Writing as an English person who'd be sorry to see the Scots go, feels like losing a sibling, but trying to be objective, I'd challenge your assertion it'd be long period of pain like Irish independence. When Ireland went independent, they didn't have the EU single market on their doorstep. There were global economic problems during those 70 yrs e:g world wars. Whereas by rejoining the EU, Scotland can improve its economy much more quickly. Ireland is nowadays a very economically successful country. why shouldn't Scotland be too? Wind powered electricity could be a big export to replace oil and gas. Also Scots tend to favour paying slightly higher taxes for public infrastructure projects, which then give economic gain. An independent Scotland could invest in railways, education , all the other things that a sensible European country does which benefit everyone and lead to economic growth, but England doesn't do properly because keeping taxes down even if the resulting lack of infrastructure and opportunity impoverishes everyone , is the English Tories policy. If I were Scottish, I'd vote for independence in a heartbeat, but the whole thing is very sad as it seems like a family breakup, also can't see how we avoid a hard(ish) border between England and Scotland
4dregress 4y ago
Brexit was a terrible idea and a gamble which failed miserably. I think what we will see play out is a Labour Libdem coalition which will get us back into the single market. Eventually we will get a single party government again and hopefully by then the world will be a much stabler place... Oh climate change...
deleted 4y ago
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jakey_bakey 4y ago
I've always thought Lonscotdonland would be a great distributed city-state if we could secede with them. Both similar politics, fed up of what the rest of England is doing.
- sideshowb 4y ago
  Interesting the rest of us don't think of London like that what with Westminster being there, but I take your point. You'll have to relocate Westminster to somewhere in the home counties. Oh and let Wales & the North join your party :)
- Doctor_Fegg 4y ago
  There's absolutely no doubt that Remainia would be a much more prosperous state than Leavistan if the UK were split along the EU referendum lines.
alignItems 4y ago
I don’t get how the Scottish independence movement can be anti-Brexit, which was about the UK wanting more independence and self-governance. If that’s what they’re after, why would they want to join the EU after leaving the UK?
- Milner08 4y ago
  Because the line about Brexit being about independence was stupid. The UK enforces far more control over Scotland than the EU ever did.
- campbellC 4y ago
  The EU and the U.K. are very different kinds of union. The EU can not require you to host nuclear weapons against your will for example which is a key issue in Scottish independence.
- iso1631 4y ago
  Brexit was nothing about the UK wanting more independence and self governance.
tupac_speedrap 4y ago
I love the non-Scottish people coming out of the woodwork trying to be experts on British politics. The SNP threaten to leave all the time, they lost the last vote by a landslide but they basically have to keep the threat alive to keep the money and powers coming from Westminster. The SNP also mismanages many Scottish councils and there is far amount of sleaze associated with their members but it's "our sleaze" and not theirs so it is better.
- iso1631 4y ago
  The last vote was 55-45, that's not a landslide.
iso1631 4y ago
Normally just asking the same question until you get the one you want would be a bad thing. Having a question after a generation of sustained support would be fine. It doesn't look like there's any sustained support from polling even with the Westminster shambles, but the SNP keep doing well in the elections. However there have been material changes since 2014. In 2014 a key point was there was no guarantee that Scotland would be admitted into the EU after "scoxit", and if they didn't it would cause chaos. The UK (specifically the majority of people in England and Wales who bothered to vote, which outweighed NI and Scotland's majorities against chaos) voted for that chaos anyway. I worry that there wouldn't be a detailed plan though, same problem as brexit. What will independence actually mean. If you were born in Scotland but live in Carlisle, do you get a Scottish passport? What if you own a second house in Scotland? Or would it be your income tax residence, if so on what date? What will border controls look like for people (both practical day to day, and things like living or working cross border). What about goods and services. Will Scotland's use a currency guaranteed by the Bank of England like some countries use the US dollar, or will they create their own Scottish Pound. Then of course that's all the arguments about the maritime border, allocating the UK's existing assets and debt, what happens with the military (will Scotland have an independent army, will it join NATO, will it contribute to rUK's defence, what about existing military bases), head of State (does Scotland keep the Queen [King]), etc. I think that having a first vote, two options * Scotland should form a detailed plan by Dec 31st 2027 to be put to a yes/no referendum before June 1st 2028 * Scotland should maintain the status quo and not have any further independence referendum before Jan 1st 2040 Which would be enabled by legislation to ensure that the rest of the UK fully cooperates with that plan, and authorizing Scotland to attempt to talk to international groups (EU, UN, NATO etc) about transition That would then be followed a detailed plan which answers those questions (and more), and then a "are you sure" vote, would be sensible. Do you support the Scottish independence plan > Yes, Scotland should become an independent country on Jan 1st 2029 following the detailed independence plan > No, Scotland should maintain the status quo until at least Jan 1st 2040 My browser asks me to confirm when I try to quit, having an "are you sure" question for major constitutional change makes sense. I personally think it's actually a worse idea now than it was in 2014 because of brexit -- we'd end up with the NI chaos but with a land border rather than the sea border. If we were part of a wider economic union then it would be fine, but that means Scotland giving up their say in the rules but still having to follow them, just like the UK and EU. In 2014 if Scotland were admitted into the EU it would have been fine, probably a good move. However my views are worth about as much as my views on Italian elections. It's entirely upto the people of Scotland, and I don't live in Scotland. My brother in law might be affected, he lives in North Cumbria as a builder, sometimes he works in Cumbria, sometimes Northumberland, sometimes in Dumfries, but that's self determination for you, and I always support self determination, be it for Falklands or Puerto Rico, Catalonia or Northern Ireland, Gibraltar or Crimea, Ukraine or Puerto Rico.
josh_fyi 4y ago
If I were English, I'd say that they need to repay for Darien https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Darien_scheme https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Darien_scheme , first :-)
dubeye 4y ago
As an English guy living in Scotland, I've followed the debate closely - there is not support to hold a referendum within the current term, despite election pledges. Everyone I know votes SNP but doesn't really want to deal with a ref right now. Are vaguely disappointed with quality of SNP governance, but overall prefer to vote for a party which is primarily scottish focused and (slightly) to the left of rUK. Current polling shows 2023 to be unpopular. But if current trends to Yes hold, then 5 to 10 years seems more realistic. SNP need to juggle this reality with their election pledges.
- aftergibson 4y ago
  I hope this isn’t too off topic but I’ve been living in the year for 12 years and never seen the acronym rUK, it’s been mentioned several times in this thread, what does the r in rUK stand for? (Forgive my ignorance of this is really obvious!).
  - dubeye 4y ago
    Rest of UK excluding Scotland.
    - Veen 4y ago
      Or, less politely, Rump UK.
    - aftergibson 4y ago
      Well that makes sense, thank you!
MafellUser 4y ago
The running joke of hardcore Remainers is to let Scotland leave the UK, join the Union and then allow the rest of UK to apply to unite with Scotland. That's the best of all worlds, everyone is unhappy except for bureaucrats who will have lifetimes employment to handle the negotiations.
jmyeet 4y ago
I don't believe Scotland will (or should) become independent for exactly the same reasons Northern Ireland should be reunified with Ireland: land borders. Scotland shares a land border with England. If Scotland were part of the EU it would have to have a harder border with England. It may exclude itself from the Schengen zone but there's still the EU customs union. Northern Ireland was the real sticking point in Brexit because of this land border with Ireland. So we ended up with the only compromise possible: Northern Ireland is effectively in the EU customs union, which is somewhat unpopular (it's complicated). But here's the advantage Northern Ireland has: part of the Good Friday Agreement gives Northern Ireland the ability to withdraw from the Uk and reunify with Ireland [1]. This is something the UK would probably drag their heels on but a lot (myself included) think that Brexit made this inevitable. Demographics also favour this. Broadly speaking, the Republicans are Catholic and generally for reunification. Unionists are Protestants and generally favour remaining part of the UK. Population growth is higher among Republicans. Scotland has no such mechanism. It was offered an independence referendum in 2014 and voted no. It's not likely it'll be offered another unless Scottish MPs become the balance of power in Westminster for a future government. Given the success the Conservatives had in the last election, that won't happen anytime soon. One can argue Scotland got jebaited since 2 years later the UK voted for Brexit. Scotland overwhelmingly voted Remain. But Brexit complicates "Scexit" because England (and Wales) is no longer part of the EU customs union. Remember that just as the UK can and did leave the EU, they can also join again. In 20 years this may be the desired option. I doubt the UK will get the concessions the EU once gave them however so maybe it'll never happen. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ireland#Good_Friday_Agreement https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ireland#Good_Friday_Agr...
- gizajob 4y ago
  But Hadrian's wall is already there. We'd just need to fix a few of the holes and throw up some checkpoints and the border would be sorted!
  - Wildgoose 4y ago
    Hadrian's Wall is entirely in England. The Anglo-Scottish border more closely follows the River Tweed until it reaches Berwick, (part of England).
ChildOfChaos 4y ago
Scotland is assuming the EU would want them, the only reason they where in Europe previously is because they where part of the UK and came as a package deal, without the rest of the UK, what does Scotland have? it's silly of them and it's all lead by the SNP who only care about independence at all costs, they ignore literally everything else and try and twist it into an independence issue. SNP is causing Scotland far more harm than it's worth. Scotland doesn't need independence, it needs a better government for the whole of the UK, but with the SNP in power in Scotland, it makes it hard for the UK to have any other government but the tories.
- smcl 4y ago
  > Scotland is assuming the EU would want them The EU is currently negotiating with Albania, North Macedonia, Serbia and Montenegro to join[0]. Is there something these countries have which an independent Scotland wouldn't? > with the SNP in power in Scotland, it makes it hard for the UK to have any other government but the tories. All of Scotland's population could have voted for Labour in the last three elections and it wouldn't have been enough to take Labour over the line. As it turns out they didn't and appear to have moved on to a mixture of SNP, LD and CON. I would invite you to think about precisely why Scotland have abandoned the Labour party in recent years if you want some insight as to that state of affairs. [0] - technically Turkey as well, but that appears to be stalled
  - ChildOfChaos 4y ago
    Yes but as another commentator has mentioned other countries such as Spain would likely veto them joining hence the EU not allowing them.
    - smcl 4y ago
      Ah then I have great news for you, Spain has already said they would not veto Scotland's EU bid if they voted for independence in a legally binding referendum: https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-spain-politics-scotland-idUKKCN1NP25P https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-spain-politics-scotland-i...
ErikCorry 4y ago
Scottish independence is a bad idea for many of the same reasons that Brexit was a bad idea and Brexit has made Scottish independence into a much worse idea. Instead of being like the Czechoslovak break-up it would be more like the issues around the Northern Irish border. Having a huge land border which is an EU/non-EU border with customs controls would be massive economic disruption on both sides of the border. The damage to people's jobs and lives would be huge. This border has been open since 1707 and people have based their lives and livelihoods around being able to cross it freely with goods and services. I can see the romantic appeal of an independent Scotland, but it would objectively be a disaster.
- mvc 4y ago
  > Having a huge land border which is an EU/non-EU border with customs controls would be massive economic disruption on both sides of the border. Is it really considered a huge border? There's only 5 roads that cross it.
  - ErikCorry 4y ago
    29 by my count. It's a rural area and the border follows some rivers that have a limited number of bridges. No roads at all connect England with France, but Brexit still caused a lot of disruption.
    - mvc 4y ago
      > 29 by my count. There's 5 "A" roads. Not sure how you got to 29 but my guess is there's going to be a lot of single-track lanes in that number. Hard to imagine huge trucks of counterfeit goods running up and down the B6318. > No roads at all connect England with France, but Brexit still caused a lot of disruption. The UK government said all these problems were caused by the intransigence of the EU so that need not be a problem this time.
- randomsearch 4y ago
  Much more of a disaster for England, which is pretty worrying for that declining nation. Scotland will have the single market as compensation.
2Gkashmiri 4y ago
good luck to scotland. if things fall into place, it just might give more attention towards my hometown "kashmir" which has literally been suffering for hundreds of years of foreign rule but more importantly, the constant war between two neighboring countries which use us as a bargaining chip for the last 70 odd years. i hope scotland gets their independence. they might help us when our time comes. fingers crossed
randomcarbloke 4y ago
Economically it's a pretty stupid idea...far stupider than Brexit was. But nationalists gonna nationalist I guess.
aspyct 4y ago
Go Scotland! I would certainly be happy to welcome Scotland back into the EU, no questions asked. You have a lovely country, people, culture and mindset. I have always felt more than welcome when visiting Scotland, and I can only wish to return the favor.
mattlondon 4y ago
I am happy for them to become independent, but I thought that last time this was a "once in a generation" type thing not a "every few years until we get the result we want"? It strikes me as unfair to just do another referendum again so soon (I think it was in 2014, so like what 8 years?). I think perhaps if they get one on Scottish independence, perhaps we should have a reverse-brexit referendum vote!
- Codesleuth 4y ago
  > perhaps we should have a reverse-brexit referendum vote! I can see it now... 51% in favour of rejoin, 49% against. Boris et al. reject on the grounds that it's too close, hilarity ensues.
- capableweb 4y ago
  I think the "once in a generation" statement was based on how things currently are at the time. So, if there wasn't any drastic changes to the entire political and economical landscape in those 8 years, then there wouldn't be another vote. But since there been at least one major shift in the very country Scotland exists in, I think it's fair to reassess how people feel about independence via a referendum.
- Ekaros 4y ago
  I think leaving an other very important economic and political union could reasonably well be seen as start of different generation. Or maybe they need to wait until Queen is dead, that should count and could even be arranged... Many other countries count their generations by whoever is the current monarch.
hyfgfh 4y ago
Maybe we can get a United Ireland by 2024 as Star Trek predicted
swarnie 4y ago
Another vote, another opportunity for Russian bots and Mock Jocks to stick their 2 pence in. Should be interesting either way....
AlgorithmicTime 4y ago
londons_explore 4y ago
With any country splitting, who is it who should be voting to split the country? Just those in the smaller part that is 'leaving'? Or the whole country? If just the smaller part, does that mean any tiny town can 'vote to be independent'?
- vladharbuz 4y ago
  The former. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-determination https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-determination A tiny town is unlikely to be able to maintain itself as an independent state. A province can definitely vote to be independent, which has often happened, and has often been blocked by the parent country, peacefully or otherwise.
  - londons_explore 4y ago
    Has anyone tested this in the courts? If I invoke the right of self-determination, and vote for my house to be independent, can I then set my own laws and pay my own taxes to me? If this was a workable thing, every town would want to do it - your taxes are far lower if you don't need to pay for the debts of a big nation state war from 100 years ago with compound interest!
butterfly771 4y ago
As a Chinese, it is not surprising to see that the "offshore balance" policy and separatism buried by Britain in the world has brought harm to itself. In Chinese philosophy, this is called fate 轮回(reincarnation).
deleted 4y ago
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maratc 4y ago
> But the point is this: in an independent Scotland, crucial decision-making power will rest with the people who live here – not with Westminster governments that do not command the support of people in Scotland, and which pursue policies, for example, Brexit, that are deeply damaging to Scotland's interests. So, the Scots don't want that the people who make the decisions would be in Westminster — they want the people who make the decisions to be in ... Brussels, Strasbourg and Hague?
- jenscow 4y ago
  There are at least 2 factors you miss: - The EU would have less of an influence than Westminster does. - The people of Scotland believe their desires are more aligned with those of other countries, than with England.
  - maratc 4y ago
    If the Scots want to leave a declining Empire A and to join a rising Empire B, I don't have issue with that. What I have issue with is calling that "independence", because that's not what that word usually means.
    - mvc 4y ago
      You ignored this part of parent's response. "The EU would have less of an influence than Westminster does" For example. Did the UK require permission from the EU in order to hold the Brexit referendum?
      - maratc 4y ago
        Is your argument that there would be less dependence on Brussels than there is on Westminster? Because my argument is that “less dependence” is not what independence is.
        mvc 4y ago
        I'm not particularly interested in debating what exactly independence means in the abstract. But to my untrained political eye, it seems that countries are free to choose political and economic unions and those unions tend to come with benefits and obligations. Are members of the UN or WTO independent? If a body consisting of representatives elected only by "Scottish citizens" can decide which unions to associate with, and which to leave, we'll have independence in my book.
nextstep 4y ago
Many people pointing out the impracticality of this because of the pound and the border issue if there were an independent Scotland. This would be a logistical nightmare, but the EU would likely welcome Scotland back into the union and support a strong border like what is happening in the Irish Sea. But these hypotheticals are just bargaining chips the EU has to force the UK back into the customs union and single market. Who knows, maybe a decade from now there will be a unified Ireland, a free Scotland and the UK will have abolished the monarchy even! But even if these aren’t realistic goals, it still makes sense for Brussels to support these movements.
capableweb 4y ago
Seems this submission is being flagged, because it's disappearing very quickly from the frontpage. Obviously, the story is of great interest, as seen by the huge amount of comments and upvotes, so maybe moderators/dang could "pin" it or whatever to make the flags less aggressive?
dontbenebby 4y ago
Makes sense to me, an Appalachian. They're not an enclaved nation didn't want to Brexit because they're not royalists[0]. Based on my informal conversations, my sense was they wanted to have the ability to travel and work throughout the EU, and that they declined independence (narrowly) because even if they're overwhelmingly... let's phrase it "not exactly a bunch of royalists". They may very well actually do it, a second time, then negotiate in partnership with France to possibly allow the UK to retrieve their nukes, given how poorly folks honored the Budapest Agreement[1] and the Good Friday Agreement[2] The end result of Brexit, as I told many folks back in DC, is looking increasing like the "United" Kingdom will have to renamed "Wangland"[3]. [0] https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/may/15/scottish-support-for-monarchy-falls-to-45-poll-reveals https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/may/15/scottish-sup... [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances#Content https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Securit... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_Friday_Agreement#Equality_and_human_rights https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_Friday_Agreement#Equality... [3] Wales + England, get it? ;-) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_Wales https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_Wales

351 points by binbag 4y ago

tomp 4y ago

My bet is that Spain will block their accession to the EU.

The nation voted No in 2014 so they should probably leave it a bit before angling for another referendum. 20 years perhaps.

binbag 4y ago

I posted this and went out for the day, so I'm a bit late now to comment but here goes. I'm Scottish and I voted no the first time round. My arguement was always "I've more in common with people from Manchester, Liverpool or London than I do with Highlanders and 'nationalists'" (I'm in Glasgow, which is the third largest UK city and the largest in Scotland). But then we were taken out of the EU and since then the UK has become (been unmasked as?) very right wing, led by a deeply unpleasant right wing of the nominally centre-right Tory party. Centre-left politics (primarily social but also economic) have been ruined, as a result of various factors at play in the last 5 years or so. My kinship with other UK cities is no longer reason enough to support the union. I manage a company registered in Scotland and it is now as difficult for us to do business with France or Spain as with India or Canada. Unlike those business owners who like the idea of a captive UK market, I want our company to compete and export globally, and we have been deprived of simple access to the world's largest trading bloc. As for the prospect of an independent Scotland joining the EU, I see no hurdles to that. Now that the UK has left the EU, it is absolutely in the EU's interest to allow Scotland, having left the EU unwillingly, to rejoin. For these reasons I'm inclined to vote yes if a second referendum is held, but I'm not 100% sure and could change my mind depending on the economic and social plans put forward.

known 4y ago

fennecfoxy 4y ago

All power to them! I guess the question of "where do we draw lines for allowing separatism" is answered by "wherever there are significant cultural divides". Though I am worried for an independent Scotland's economy: they may gain some business, but some will withdraw, the rest of the UK will reconsider how tightly integrated its economy should be with Scotland, they'll likely lose the use of the GBP, which holds much value in itself; if they can't join the EU and use the Euro then the Scottish Pound problem will happen all over again.

samwillis 4y ago

Can’t say I blame them now (I will be sad but can see why under the current environment), in fact could we move the Scottish border a little further south? Maybe just annex all but SW1 to be part of an independent European nation…

afavour 4y ago

As a Brit that didn’t want Scotland to be independent last time around: good luck to them. Brexit has shown very clearly that Scotland wants to chart a different path to England and IMO they should be allowed to do it. …just be generous to English folks seeking asylum from Tory rule, yeah?

donedealomg 4y ago
atc 4y ago
c16 4y ago
In full agreement. The UK is now a joke of a country, all the best to them.
- easytiger 4y ago
  Compared with whom and on what criteria?
  - melenaboija 4y ago
    Compared to what it was before brexit
  - gspr 4y ago
    For an easy case: compared to itself before Brexit.
  - Bouncingsoul1 4y ago
    criteria:prime minister, with whom: anyone ;)
  - c16 4y ago
    1. A PM who lies about attending a party, and runs with the lie until he is forced to admit it by a report and photographic evidence. 2. A PM who lied to the Queen. 3. Food poverty on the up [1] 5. £350m a week for NHS post Brexit, and yet that was a blatant lie. NHS now struggling with many staff quitting post covid and as a result of increased work load due to brexit. The list goes on. [1] British medical journal (https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/347/bmj.f7157/F1.large.jpg https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/347/bmj.f7157/F1.large.jpg)

neals 4y ago

Sound great, let England apply to join Scotland in a few years time.

lordnacho 4y ago

I don't see why not. The whole leaving the EU thing is a reasonable cause for independence. In general I like smaller units of government too, and it's not as if they can't cooperate with the UK in areas where they agree. I do have a horse in this race as I have Scottish family who'd have more choices with an EU passport.

rightbyte 4y ago
You don't have to join Schengen border cooperation.
- closewith 4y ago
  All EU accession states are legally bound to join Schengen, with the exception of Ireland, which during the negotiations for the Treaty of Amsterdam received (along with the UK) an opt-out. No other nations have this opt-out.
  - iso1631 4y ago
    Yet not all nations are in Schengen. If Scotland were allowed to join the EU (despite Spain's veto) I have no doubt there would be an acceptance that it could remain in the CTA with Ireland and the rest of UK
    - closewith 4y ago
      I'd have the opposite view. It seems unlikely that the bloc will ever provide opt-outs going forward given the difficulties they've caused to date.
      - iso1631 4y ago
        Unlike Denmark, Sweden doesn't have an optout for the Euro, yet hasn't joined.
        4y ago

tick_tock_tick 4y ago

It's one thing to push for independence itself to gain full sovereignty, though with the implication they'd join the EU right away they wouldn't have it for long, but don't pretend like it's somehow going to make Scotland "better".

Dobbs 4y ago
But Scotland (and the rest of the UK) were better before leaving the EU. On the whole Scotish voters didn't want to leave the EU, to the point that it was one of the primary arguments that Boris used in the independence referendum, that if they left the UK they wouldn't necessarily have EU membership any more. Well they lost it anyways, so why shouldn't they chart their own path back? I really hate the word sovereignty beign thrown around because in and of itself it doesn't mean anything. At least not in the way that Brexitiers use it.
xxs 4y ago
They'd have a lot higher degree of freedom in the EU, compared the to the UK where their votes barely count for anything as witnessed by the Brexit and any other general poll.
mvc 4y ago
> don't pretend like it's somehow going to make Scotland "better". Isn't that the essence of politics? You're basically trying to convince people that the system would be "better" if things were run the way you proscribe vs someone else. Of course different people have different preferences so it's likely some will perceive it as "better" and others will perceive it as "worse".
Doctor_Fegg 4y ago
For a very large percentage of voters, "no Tory government ever again" automatically equates to "better". You might not agree but you can surely see the logic.

bestinterest 4y ago

I voted no last time round as I was not convinced on the economic side of things. Truthfully I'm still not convinced but I'm finding it hard to justify staying on the sinking ship of the UK. I'd rather fail as a country by our own decisions rather than the Scottish government always being able to point to Westminister for failure. I wish more world wide economists took time to write arguments for/against Scottish independence as I find it hard to see the longer term plan.

yung_steezy 4y ago
Scotland would make a good tax haven since it has a relatively small, homogeneous, and centralised population.
hardlianotion 4y ago
Most economists worldwide have other priorities.
reillyse 4y ago
I think it's pretty easy to see examples of what Scotland could be. Have a look over the Irish sea and Ireland is doing very well for itself just a little over 100 years after independence ("full" independence obviously happening slightly later). It seems very obvious to me that when decisions are made locally they are made in the interests of the people who are local. Being on the periphery of a country is not ideal. Ireland had suffered for it in the past and became very poor as a result of colonization but has rebounded very significantly. Scotland, despite having massive resources is a very very poor and depressed country. If the oil wealth from the North Sea had stayed in Scotland, you could be having a Norway style moment but instead that wealth has gone south.
- smcl 4y ago
  > very very poor and depressed country Scotland suffered greatly from the decline of a few key industries in the 70s and 80s so and parts of it are indeed poor and in decline. But if you're to categorise a country by its very poorest areas, you'll end up saying the USA, France, England are very very poor and depressed. Scotland isn't Norway - that ship has long sailed and we should discard any ideas that oil wealth can still take us there. But it's not, no offense intended, Moldova and it's wrong to think of it that way.

jack_riminton 4y ago

As an Englishman I say good luck to them. If it means them leaving the UK to join the EU then it might force the rest of the UK to rejoin as well!

4dregress 4y ago

I don't see it happening, we've been through far too much in the last 10 years to inflict even more damage. I've asked this question many times but how is it feasible for Scotland to become Independent: 1. They currently don't meet the requirements to join the EU. Are they going to skip the current waiting list? 2. How will they create a military? 3. Still a big question mark over currency and Scotland's debt. 4. Ownership of Natural Resources?

smcl 4y ago
If there was a waiting list then there would have been no expansion since 1987 at least, when Turkey began negotiation.
Etheryte 4y ago
Perhaps I simply don't understand what you mean, but none of those questions seem very complex? For 1-3, see any Baltic states in the early 90s who are now a part of the EU. Just because you don't meet the requirements to join right away doesn't mean you can't do it over time. As for 4, naturally Scotland would own its own natural resources, what's ambiguous about that?
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- 4dregress 4y ago
  Unfortunately it's not the 90's and a lot of things have changed in geopolitics. France is quite against expansion and there are a lot of questions around what to do with Ukraine. Scotland wanting to join as an unproven independent is really unlikely. https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2020/02/05/what-would-it-take-for-scotland-to-rejoin-the-eu-as-an-independent-state/ https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2020/02/05/what-would-it-...
Erikun 4y ago
The biggest hurdle for Scotland joining the EU arent the requirements, they'd likely pass those without too much issues. The biggest hurdle is probably Spain who wouldn't want to give the Catalan independence movement a good example.

Blackstone4 4y ago

I feel like the Scotts only push hard for independence when the price of oil is high....because it balances the budget and makes independence look more attractive..

ggm 4y ago
Not enough of the reserves lie in Scottish waters. If you look at the sea area mapping the line runs a lot more north by Northeast than people expect. Scotland will make shitloads exporting hydro electricity. Probably more than oil and gas royalties
- mvc 4y ago
  > Scotland will make shitloads exporting hydro electricity I doubt that. Hydro doesn't seem very exportable. hydro-tech should be though and Scotland could be well placed to attract investment in that (if only we weren't losing so many scientists to the EU)
  - ggm 4y ago
    Scotland exported 19Twh of electricity to England in 2021, which was about 30% of its generating capacity. It represented around 10% of english electricity power needs. It's on a growth trend, the wind farm on dogger bank may alter the balance.
    - mvc 4y ago
      > Scotland exported 19Twh of electricity to England in 2021, which was about 30% of its generating capacity. True but the rate it gets for that electricity is lower than the rate recieved by power companies operating in the south. This is because there is an operating cost of maintaining the network that allows the energy to flow to the point of use. The cost of getting it to Europe would be even greater. http://www.scottishenergynews.com/higher-connection-charges-in-scotland-than-ruk-are-no-barrier-to-electricity-generators-says-national-grid-chief/ http://www.scottishenergynews.com/higher-connection-charges-...
- 4y ago

Distozion 4y ago

While as someone living in London, I fully agree that Scotland should have sovereignty without the English BS, I do find it chuckle worthy the url they created for this cause: "independence-modern-world-wealthier-happier-fairer-not-scotland". I think their marketing team needs to do some work on that one and maybe a bolder call to action than "Why not Scotland" while they're at it :D

Erikun 4y ago

It’s certainly hard to argue that Scotland shouldn’t be allowed to hold a referendum again. Usually I feel that the one they had a few years back should stand but with brexit the situation feels sufficiently changed that the old result feels dated. But at the same time, the lesson should be that a simple majority is not a sufficient result. Either a qualified majority of some sort, with minimum participation threshold, or maybe two referendums with a general election in between sounds about right.

Engineering-MD 4y ago
A higher threshold would be sensible. The difficulty is if you keeping asking a question, 15 No’s and 1 yes means yes.
camjw 4y ago
Indyref1 got 85% turnout (highest ever turnout for a democratic event in the UK) so at least any reasonable minimum participation threshold should be easily reached.

trollied 4y ago

I'd be very interested to see a breakdown of the economics behind this ever happening. Anyone got a decent link/article they can share?

haunter 4y ago
Here is the government's paper from 2013 made before the 2014 referendum. Extensively covers the economics and many other topics https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/strategy-plan/2013/11/scotlands-future/documents/scotlands-future-guide-independent-scotland/scotlands-future-guide-independent-scotland/govscot%3Adocument/00439021.pdf https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publ...
randomcarbloke 4y ago
Ultimately it's a dumber idea than Brexit.

chillydawg 4y ago

One quite important issue is the border. English and Scottish people will almost certainly never tolerate any kind of friction at that border. We've been moving across it seamlessly for centuries, families are mixed, businesses straddle the border, etc. If the Northern Ireland debacle has shown us anything, it's if Scotland were to leave and then join the EU that border would become an absolute political nightmare. The EU has an absolutist position on border integrity, but locals have an absolutist position of border porosity. I don't think there's a compromise that both sides could tolerate.

melenaboija 4y ago
> The EU has an absolutist position on border integrity And do you have an opinion about UK position on border integrity?
espadrine 4y ago
Another way to look at the Northern Ireland precedent, is that a compromise was found. People could argue that the same text can be reused.
- KSteffensen 4y ago
  A compromise that Johnson is now unilaterally reneging on. Apparently somebody figured out that it is actually the same compromise that was rejected when presented by Teresa May. No workable solution has been found for Northern Ireland. At least England/Scotland border doesn't have the bagage of the troubles, but it'll still be a mess.
- Milner08 4y ago
  The text they are currently trying to rip up against the will of the EU? The only viable solution is that the UK rejoins the EU or becomes subservient to it... but neither will happen anytime soon.
- consp 4y ago
  You do realise that the UK is trying to break that NI protocol unilaterally? That is a very poor example right now.

floitsch 4y ago

Interesting fact: the Anglo-Scottish border is significantly shorter than the one separating Northern Ireland from Ireland: 154km vs 499km.

inglor_cz 4y ago

I still can't really see the case for Scottish independence except nationalism. Scotland has been part of the UK for more than 300 years. It is so tightly integrated into its society and market that a hard border would be rather painful. We have an example of the successor states of Austria-Hungary once the empire collapsed at the end of WWI. The economic situation of businesses that suddenly faced high tariffs accessing their traditional markets was dire and likely paved way for the Great Depression in Central and Eastern Europe being even worse than it had to be. Scottish independence seems to me a solution in search of a problem.

detritus 4y ago
May I ask where you are from? My blood is Scottish and I grew up in the North of England and I can tell you that in the late 90s there was a lot of talk of a Northern Assembly to better represent that end of the country versus Westminster, never mind Scottish parliament or independence. When I used to travel to London (where I now reside) regularly as a child, I was always bemused by how much of a bubble there was around the South East, in terms of people's consciousness, perspective and blunt media focus. There really was - and still moreso is - a curious myopia for anything North of Watford. I've not lived up North for over twenty years, but I'm pretty sure the sentiment up there's not gotten any weaker... .
manmal 4y ago
Joining the EU is not a good case?
dubeye 4y ago
The integration is part of the problem. Scotland ends up paying for things like HS2 and other London centric. English regions have same issue arguably, but Scotland alone has some hope to rectify.
- kmlx 4y ago
  > Scotland ends up paying for things like HS2 and other London centric. i find it hard to believe Scottish people don't travel outside of Scotland.

physicsguy 4y ago

With hard headed view, I struggle to see that an independent Scotland will be economically able to deal with large cuts to public sector spending that would almost certainly be required. Per capita spending is already higher in Scotland than in the rest of the UK. Scottish companies have debts denominated in pounds. There would almost certainly be capital flight to rUK. Large businesses may relocate. There is no plan for a new currency, which would leave Scotland either with a weaker currency than sterling, or with a currency it has no influence over. The UK is obviously suffering economically because of Brexit - an economic relationship that was built up over 40 years or so. Scotland, England and Wales have been a country since 1707. Just imagine the complication of breaking that. It makes Brexit look like a tiny job. Scotland would need to set up mirrors of institutions completely administered by Westminster at great cost, with a shrinking and aging population which is poorer, less educated and less healthy than the rest of the UK, even despite much of the things influencing that (healthcare, education) being devolved to the Scottish government since 1997. I certainly don’t think it’s impossible. But I think it’s like Irish independence - it took the best part of 70 years for Ireland to economically recover. Over that time there was vast emigration to the UK and the US. Part of that was my own family who moved to the UK in the 1950s because of terrible job prospects in the Republic.

nickd2001 4y ago
Writing as an English person who'd be sorry to see the Scots go, feels like losing a sibling, but trying to be objective, I'd challenge your assertion it'd be long period of pain like Irish independence. When Ireland went independent, they didn't have the EU single market on their doorstep. There were global economic problems during those 70 yrs e:g world wars. Whereas by rejoining the EU, Scotland can improve its economy much more quickly. Ireland is nowadays a very economically successful country. why shouldn't Scotland be too? Wind powered electricity could be a big export to replace oil and gas. Also Scots tend to favour paying slightly higher taxes for public infrastructure projects, which then give economic gain. An independent Scotland could invest in railways, education , all the other things that a sensible European country does which benefit everyone and lead to economic growth, but England doesn't do properly because keeping taxes down even if the resulting lack of infrastructure and opportunity impoverishes everyone , is the English Tories policy. If I were Scottish, I'd vote for independence in a heartbeat, but the whole thing is very sad as it seems like a family breakup, also can't see how we avoid a hard(ish) border between England and Scotland

4dregress 4y ago

Brexit was a terrible idea and a gamble which failed miserably. I think what we will see play out is a Labour Libdem coalition which will get us back into the single market. Eventually we will get a single party government again and hopefully by then the world will be a much stabler place... Oh climate change...

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

jakey_bakey 4y ago

I've always thought Lonscotdonland would be a great distributed city-state if we could secede with them. Both similar politics, fed up of what the rest of England is doing.

sideshowb 4y ago
Interesting the rest of us don't think of London like that what with Westminster being there, but I take your point. You'll have to relocate Westminster to somewhere in the home counties. Oh and let Wales & the North join your party :)
Doctor_Fegg 4y ago
There's absolutely no doubt that Remainia would be a much more prosperous state than Leavistan if the UK were split along the EU referendum lines.

alignItems 4y ago

I don’t get how the Scottish independence movement can be anti-Brexit, which was about the UK wanting more independence and self-governance. If that’s what they’re after, why would they want to join the EU after leaving the UK?

Milner08 4y ago
Because the line about Brexit being about independence was stupid. The UK enforces far more control over Scotland than the EU ever did.
campbellC 4y ago
The EU and the U.K. are very different kinds of union. The EU can not require you to host nuclear weapons against your will for example which is a key issue in Scottish independence.
iso1631 4y ago
Brexit was nothing about the UK wanting more independence and self governance.

tupac_speedrap 4y ago

I love the non-Scottish people coming out of the woodwork trying to be experts on British politics. The SNP threaten to leave all the time, they lost the last vote by a landslide but they basically have to keep the threat alive to keep the money and powers coming from Westminster. The SNP also mismanages many Scottish councils and there is far amount of sleaze associated with their members but it's "our sleaze" and not theirs so it is better.

iso1631 4y ago
The last vote was 55-45, that's not a landslide.

iso1631 4y ago

Normally just asking the same question until you get the one you want would be a bad thing. Having a question after a generation of sustained support would be fine. It doesn't look like there's any sustained support from polling even with the Westminster shambles, but the SNP keep doing well in the elections. However there have been material changes since 2014. In 2014 a key point was there was no guarantee that Scotland would be admitted into the EU after "scoxit", and if they didn't it would cause chaos. The UK (specifically the majority of people in England and Wales who bothered to vote, which outweighed NI and Scotland's majorities against chaos) voted for that chaos anyway. I worry that there wouldn't be a detailed plan though, same problem as brexit. What will independence actually mean. If you were born in Scotland but live in Carlisle, do you get a Scottish passport? What if you own a second house in Scotland? Or would it be your income tax residence, if so on what date? What will border controls look like for people (both practical day to day, and things like living or working cross border). What about goods and services. Will Scotland's use a currency guaranteed by the Bank of England like some countries use the US dollar, or will they create their own Scottish Pound. Then of course that's all the arguments about the maritime border, allocating the UK's existing assets and debt, what happens with the military (will Scotland have an independent army, will it join NATO, will it contribute to rUK's defence, what about existing military bases), head of State (does Scotland keep the Queen [King]), etc. I think that having a first vote, two options * Scotland should form a detailed plan by Dec 31st 2027 to be put to a yes/no referendum before June 1st 2028 * Scotland should maintain the status quo and not have any further independence referendum before Jan 1st 2040 Which would be enabled by legislation to ensure that the rest of the UK fully cooperates with that plan, and authorizing Scotland to attempt to talk to international groups (EU, UN, NATO etc) about transition That would then be followed a detailed plan which answers those questions (and more), and then a "are you sure" vote, would be sensible. Do you support the Scottish independence plan > Yes, Scotland should become an independent country on Jan 1st 2029 following the detailed independence plan > No, Scotland should maintain the status quo until at least Jan 1st 2040 My browser asks me to confirm when I try to quit, having an "are you sure" question for major constitutional change makes sense. I personally think it's actually a worse idea now than it was in 2014 because of brexit -- we'd end up with the NI chaos but with a land border rather than the sea border. If we were part of a wider economic union then it would be fine, but that means Scotland giving up their say in the rules but still having to follow them, just like the UK and EU. In 2014 if Scotland were admitted into the EU it would have been fine, probably a good move. However my views are worth about as much as my views on Italian elections. It's entirely upto the people of Scotland, and I don't live in Scotland. My brother in law might be affected, he lives in North Cumbria as a builder, sometimes he works in Cumbria, sometimes Northumberland, sometimes in Dumfries, but that's self determination for you, and I always support self determination, be it for Falklands or Puerto Rico, Catalonia or Northern Ireland, Gibraltar or Crimea, Ukraine or Puerto Rico.

josh_fyi 4y ago

If I were English, I'd say that they need to repay for Darien https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Darien_scheme https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Darien_scheme , first :-)

dubeye 4y ago

As an English guy living in Scotland, I've followed the debate closely - there is not support to hold a referendum within the current term, despite election pledges. Everyone I know votes SNP but doesn't really want to deal with a ref right now. Are vaguely disappointed with quality of SNP governance, but overall prefer to vote for a party which is primarily scottish focused and (slightly) to the left of rUK. Current polling shows 2023 to be unpopular. But if current trends to Yes hold, then 5 to 10 years seems more realistic. SNP need to juggle this reality with their election pledges.

aftergibson 4y ago
I hope this isn’t too off topic but I’ve been living in the year for 12 years and never seen the acronym rUK, it’s been mentioned several times in this thread, what does the r in rUK stand for? (Forgive my ignorance of this is really obvious!).
- dubeye 4y ago
  Rest of UK excluding Scotland.
  - Veen 4y ago
    Or, less politely, Rump UK.
  - aftergibson 4y ago
    Well that makes sense, thank you!

MafellUser 4y ago

The running joke of hardcore Remainers is to let Scotland leave the UK, join the Union and then allow the rest of UK to apply to unite with Scotland. That's the best of all worlds, everyone is unhappy except for bureaucrats who will have lifetimes employment to handle the negotiations.

jmyeet 4y ago

I don't believe Scotland will (or should) become independent for exactly the same reasons Northern Ireland should be reunified with Ireland: land borders. Scotland shares a land border with England. If Scotland were part of the EU it would have to have a harder border with England. It may exclude itself from the Schengen zone but there's still the EU customs union. Northern Ireland was the real sticking point in Brexit because of this land border with Ireland. So we ended up with the only compromise possible: Northern Ireland is effectively in the EU customs union, which is somewhat unpopular (it's complicated). But here's the advantage Northern Ireland has: part of the Good Friday Agreement gives Northern Ireland the ability to withdraw from the Uk and reunify with Ireland [1]. This is something the UK would probably drag their heels on but a lot (myself included) think that Brexit made this inevitable. Demographics also favour this. Broadly speaking, the Republicans are Catholic and generally for reunification. Unionists are Protestants and generally favour remaining part of the UK. Population growth is higher among Republicans. Scotland has no such mechanism. It was offered an independence referendum in 2014 and voted no. It's not likely it'll be offered another unless Scottish MPs become the balance of power in Westminster for a future government. Given the success the Conservatives had in the last election, that won't happen anytime soon. One can argue Scotland got jebaited since 2 years later the UK voted for Brexit. Scotland overwhelmingly voted Remain. But Brexit complicates "Scexit" because England (and Wales) is no longer part of the EU customs union. Remember that just as the UK can and did leave the EU, they can also join again. In 20 years this may be the desired option. I doubt the UK will get the concessions the EU once gave them however so maybe it'll never happen. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ireland#Good_Friday_Agreement https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ireland#Good_Friday_Agr...

gizajob 4y ago
But Hadrian's wall is already there. We'd just need to fix a few of the holes and throw up some checkpoints and the border would be sorted!
- Wildgoose 4y ago
  Hadrian's Wall is entirely in England. The Anglo-Scottish border more closely follows the River Tweed until it reaches Berwick, (part of England).

ChildOfChaos 4y ago

Scotland is assuming the EU would want them, the only reason they where in Europe previously is because they where part of the UK and came as a package deal, without the rest of the UK, what does Scotland have? it's silly of them and it's all lead by the SNP who only care about independence at all costs, they ignore literally everything else and try and twist it into an independence issue. SNP is causing Scotland far more harm than it's worth. Scotland doesn't need independence, it needs a better government for the whole of the UK, but with the SNP in power in Scotland, it makes it hard for the UK to have any other government but the tories.

smcl 4y ago
> Scotland is assuming the EU would want them The EU is currently negotiating with Albania, North Macedonia, Serbia and Montenegro to join[0]. Is there something these countries have which an independent Scotland wouldn't? > with the SNP in power in Scotland, it makes it hard for the UK to have any other government but the tories. All of Scotland's population could have voted for Labour in the last three elections and it wouldn't have been enough to take Labour over the line. As it turns out they didn't and appear to have moved on to a mixture of SNP, LD and CON. I would invite you to think about precisely why Scotland have abandoned the Labour party in recent years if you want some insight as to that state of affairs. [0] - technically Turkey as well, but that appears to be stalled
- ChildOfChaos 4y ago
  Yes but as another commentator has mentioned other countries such as Spain would likely veto them joining hence the EU not allowing them.
  - smcl 4y ago
    Ah then I have great news for you, Spain has already said they would not veto Scotland's EU bid if they voted for independence in a legally binding referendum: https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-spain-politics-scotland-idUKKCN1NP25P https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-spain-politics-scotland-i...

ErikCorry 4y ago

Scottish independence is a bad idea for many of the same reasons that Brexit was a bad idea and Brexit has made Scottish independence into a much worse idea. Instead of being like the Czechoslovak break-up it would be more like the issues around the Northern Irish border. Having a huge land border which is an EU/non-EU border with customs controls would be massive economic disruption on both sides of the border. The damage to people's jobs and lives would be huge. This border has been open since 1707 and people have based their lives and livelihoods around being able to cross it freely with goods and services. I can see the romantic appeal of an independent Scotland, but it would objectively be a disaster.

mvc 4y ago
> Having a huge land border which is an EU/non-EU border with customs controls would be massive economic disruption on both sides of the border. Is it really considered a huge border? There's only 5 roads that cross it.
- ErikCorry 4y ago
  29 by my count. It's a rural area and the border follows some rivers that have a limited number of bridges. No roads at all connect England with France, but Brexit still caused a lot of disruption.
  - mvc 4y ago
    > 29 by my count. There's 5 "A" roads. Not sure how you got to 29 but my guess is there's going to be a lot of single-track lanes in that number. Hard to imagine huge trucks of counterfeit goods running up and down the B6318. > No roads at all connect England with France, but Brexit still caused a lot of disruption. The UK government said all these problems were caused by the intransigence of the EU so that need not be a problem this time.
randomsearch 4y ago
Much more of a disaster for England, which is pretty worrying for that declining nation. Scotland will have the single market as compensation.

2Gkashmiri 4y ago

good luck to scotland. if things fall into place, it just might give more attention towards my hometown "kashmir" which has literally been suffering for hundreds of years of foreign rule but more importantly, the constant war between two neighboring countries which use us as a bargaining chip for the last 70 odd years. i hope scotland gets their independence. they might help us when our time comes. fingers crossed

randomcarbloke 4y ago

Economically it's a pretty stupid idea...far stupider than Brexit was. But nationalists gonna nationalist I guess.

aspyct 4y ago

Go Scotland! I would certainly be happy to welcome Scotland back into the EU, no questions asked. You have a lovely country, people, culture and mindset. I have always felt more than welcome when visiting Scotland, and I can only wish to return the favor.

mattlondon 4y ago

I am happy for them to become independent, but I thought that last time this was a "once in a generation" type thing not a "every few years until we get the result we want"? It strikes me as unfair to just do another referendum again so soon (I think it was in 2014, so like what 8 years?). I think perhaps if they get one on Scottish independence, perhaps we should have a reverse-brexit referendum vote!

Codesleuth 4y ago
> perhaps we should have a reverse-brexit referendum vote! I can see it now... 51% in favour of rejoin, 49% against. Boris et al. reject on the grounds that it's too close, hilarity ensues.
capableweb 4y ago
I think the "once in a generation" statement was based on how things currently are at the time. So, if there wasn't any drastic changes to the entire political and economical landscape in those 8 years, then there wouldn't be another vote. But since there been at least one major shift in the very country Scotland exists in, I think it's fair to reassess how people feel about independence via a referendum.
Ekaros 4y ago
I think leaving an other very important economic and political union could reasonably well be seen as start of different generation. Or maybe they need to wait until Queen is dead, that should count and could even be arranged... Many other countries count their generations by whoever is the current monarch.

hyfgfh 4y ago

Maybe we can get a United Ireland by 2024 as Star Trek predicted

swarnie 4y ago

Another vote, another opportunity for Russian bots and Mock Jocks to stick their 2 pence in. Should be interesting either way....

AlgorithmicTime 4y ago

londons_explore 4y ago

With any country splitting, who is it who should be voting to split the country? Just those in the smaller part that is 'leaving'? Or the whole country? If just the smaller part, does that mean any tiny town can 'vote to be independent'?

vladharbuz 4y ago
The former. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-determination https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-determination A tiny town is unlikely to be able to maintain itself as an independent state. A province can definitely vote to be independent, which has often happened, and has often been blocked by the parent country, peacefully or otherwise.
- londons_explore 4y ago
  Has anyone tested this in the courts? If I invoke the right of self-determination, and vote for my house to be independent, can I then set my own laws and pay my own taxes to me? If this was a workable thing, every town would want to do it - your taxes are far lower if you don't need to pay for the debts of a big nation state war from 100 years ago with compound interest!

butterfly771 4y ago

As a Chinese, it is not surprising to see that the "offshore balance" policy and separatism buried by Britain in the world has brought harm to itself. In Chinese philosophy, this is called fate 轮回(reincarnation).

deleted 4y ago

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maratc 4y ago

> But the point is this: in an independent Scotland, crucial decision-making power will rest with the people who live here – not with Westminster governments that do not command the support of people in Scotland, and which pursue policies, for example, Brexit, that are deeply damaging to Scotland's interests. So, the Scots don't want that the people who make the decisions would be in Westminster — they want the people who make the decisions to be in ... Brussels, Strasbourg and Hague?

jenscow 4y ago
There are at least 2 factors you miss: - The EU would have less of an influence than Westminster does. - The people of Scotland believe their desires are more aligned with those of other countries, than with England.
- maratc 4y ago
  If the Scots want to leave a declining Empire A and to join a rising Empire B, I don't have issue with that. What I have issue with is calling that "independence", because that's not what that word usually means.
  - mvc 4y ago
    You ignored this part of parent's response. "The EU would have less of an influence than Westminster does" For example. Did the UK require permission from the EU in order to hold the Brexit referendum?
    - maratc 4y ago
      Is your argument that there would be less dependence on Brussels than there is on Westminster? Because my argument is that “less dependence” is not what independence is.
      - mvc 4y ago
        I'm not particularly interested in debating what exactly independence means in the abstract. But to my untrained political eye, it seems that countries are free to choose political and economic unions and those unions tend to come with benefits and obligations. Are members of the UN or WTO independent? If a body consisting of representatives elected only by "Scottish citizens" can decide which unions to associate with, and which to leave, we'll have independence in my book.

nextstep 4y ago

Many people pointing out the impracticality of this because of the pound and the border issue if there were an independent Scotland. This would be a logistical nightmare, but the EU would likely welcome Scotland back into the union and support a strong border like what is happening in the Irish Sea. But these hypotheticals are just bargaining chips the EU has to force the UK back into the customs union and single market. Who knows, maybe a decade from now there will be a unified Ireland, a free Scotland and the UK will have abolished the monarchy even! But even if these aren’t realistic goals, it still makes sense for Brussels to support these movements.

capableweb 4y ago

Seems this submission is being flagged, because it's disappearing very quickly from the frontpage. Obviously, the story is of great interest, as seen by the huge amount of comments and upvotes, so maybe moderators/dang could "pin" it or whatever to make the flags less aggressive?

dontbenebby 4y ago

Makes sense to me, an Appalachian. They're not an enclaved nation didn't want to Brexit because they're not royalists[0]. Based on my informal conversations, my sense was they wanted to have the ability to travel and work throughout the EU, and that they declined independence (narrowly) because even if they're overwhelmingly... let's phrase it "not exactly a bunch of royalists". They may very well actually do it, a second time, then negotiate in partnership with France to possibly allow the UK to retrieve their nukes, given how poorly folks honored the Budapest Agreement[1] and the Good Friday Agreement[2] The end result of Brexit, as I told many folks back in DC, is looking increasing like the "United" Kingdom will have to renamed "Wangland"[3]. [0] https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/may/15/scottish-support-for-monarchy-falls-to-45-poll-reveals https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/may/15/scottish-sup... [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances#Content https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Securit... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_Friday_Agreement#Equality_and_human_rights https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_Friday_Agreement#Equality... [3] Wales + England, get it? ;-) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_Wales https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_Wales