20 ms·

Dude, where’s my stuff

354 points by throw0101a 5y ago

mdonahoe 5y ago
I've never seen Terms & Conditions on a blog before "Please read through the disclaimer before entering the site"
- neom 5y ago
  I'm 97% sure it's due to SEC regulation for financial advisors when disclosing information that could be invested on.
  - RONROC 5y ago
    How’d you land at 97? Probably best to use 99, 100, or some variation of “I’m fairly certain”, no? I am only 96% kidding ;)
    - neom 5y ago
      Well, I'm 100% sure that some of that is there for SEC reasons, but I'm not 100% sure the primary motivator for putting it up is the SEC, JPM being JPM and all, who knows... so, as throwing caution to the wind, I put 97%, as I also feel 100% sure I don't really trust JPM. :)
- ocdtrekkie 5y ago
  I decided to say no cuz I didn't want to agree to it and it punted me out to their home page. :/ EULAs are awful.
- htrp 5y ago
  A lot of this content is only approved for certain geographical jurisdictions due to the amount of protections most governments put on their local banking/financial services sector.
- kragen 5y ago
  Firefox reader mode solves this.
  - nicbou 5y ago
    Anything that doesn't improve upon reader mode is superfluous design.
RobRivera 5y ago
if you don't want me to read your blog, keep the terms and conditions page. I am clearly not your audience.
- pianoben 5y ago
  Same - I bounced right out. I'm not reading all of that.
- Brendinooo 5y ago
  I'm curious what zapping the modal with uBlock Origin means, from the perspective of a JP Morgan lawyer
  - ComputerGuru 5y ago
    Some organizations’ legal teams would consider that unauthorized access and try to charge you with hacking.
  - ruined 5y ago
    there was a modal? i guess having javascript disabled exempts me from the terms
- ComputerGuru 5y ago
  Get BehindTheOverlay Revival if you are on desktop.
- tejtm 5y ago
  left click, block element ... or not
michael_j_ward 5y ago
For anyone working on supply chains, what risks are you worried about that others seem to be ignoring?
nabaraz 5y ago
Somewhat related, how does Brightcove hide the media files? I do not see any mp4 or other video files in the network tab. Is this like the good ol' times with flash player?
- dqv 5y ago
  It looks like they use media blobulation similar to how Twitter does it.
- recursive 5y ago
  It's split into ~9 second excerpts. Each are loaded by ajax on demand. They're served with content type video/MP2T. JS loads the content of the response into a Blob. `URL.createObjectURL` converts each piece into a "blob:"-scheme URL that can be interpreted by the <video> element on the page.
  - alexpetralia 5y ago
    This is awesome - thanks for this explanation! Always wondered how "media" could slip into the browser without being tracked in the Media tab of the Chrome Developer Tools. This explains it!
  - rcMgD2BwE72F 5y ago
    Thank you so much for your explanation! I've always wondered how they did that. Do you know any way to get a copy of the full video? I like to play video at 1.5x speed, but some player don't have this feature so I need to obtain the URI (to play the network file with local player ove) or the file itself (e.g with youtube-dl).
- NavinF 5y ago
  Try reloading the page after opening the network tab.
themodelplumber 5y ago
Wow. Just looking at the charts from ta perspectives, I'd anticipate: - Minimum 10% drop in US goods spending - Huge drop in China shipping container production - Halving of container freight rate between LA and Shanghai - Catastrophic drop in arrangement of freight and cargo prices (PPI) - Jump in US home foreclosures - Drop in emerging market capital inflows - Worker training starting to catch up with business demand - Drop in mfg delivery times - Massive volatility opportunity/chaos, or both, depending on how you see it Possible timelines for these changes do look really close, likely surging early 2022. Probably scary news coming around that time (not reflecting causality so much, as in "scary events cause drops"; you could even read the news as a natural outcome of the drops) Not making any comments here as to good/bad or causality. It looks more like natural shakeouts that could allow for helpful interventions or follow-on effects, depending. For governments, I'd think now is the time to get creative, protecting and planning for homeowners and vulnerable populations and businesses as much possible. The above is speculation... Follow-on predictions - Crypto is going to boom again by early 2022 minimum. Elevator is going up. - Political volatility could get exciting again in the US. - How is political volatility going to show up in PRC? I guess I'd look for more strong moves by government to see where their fears are. - Local business reopening coupons and deals will take off as COVID pressure eases - (I am very bullish wrt US economic growth beyond 2022, we'll see what the catalysts may be. Long-term US is headed toward stabilization psychology, return of the gold watch after consolidation phase(s), IMO) (Downvote if uncomfortable, I claim no crystal ball...)
- tomcam 5y ago
  Upvoted b/c it feels very well thought out and summarized the article brilliantly. And because I don't know if I agree with you politically, which makes it an even more valuable assessment to me (because I'm not prejudging).
  - themodelplumber 5y ago
    Thanks for your comment. I don't even know if I agree with myself politically. I don't claim any position on the spectrum and would rather transcend it than find a place to stay. In my professional training I was taught to watch how human psychology and control dynamics emerge from less-conscious zones of human perception and judgment. To me this paints a different picture of politics than I think most would acknowledge.
lkbm 5y ago
> For all the clients that have asked me about the political and economic problems associated with the rise of autonomous vehicles and more unemployed truckers, I keep telling them they’ve got it backwards: the US has had a trucker shortage for the last few years, and it’s projected to get worse. In addition to the need to point out that "shortage" just means "I don't want to pay market rate", a shortage of truck drivers does not negate the concern of automation causing mass unemployment of truckers. The concern is that the 450,000 truckers will lose their jobs. "We want to have 500,000 truckers who would lose their jobs" doesn't addresses that issue. To be clear, I'm still very much in favor of automation, but people aren't "getting it backwards" here. These are two different problems.
- dnissley 5y ago
  Could we reframe this in a way that takes both supply and demand sides into consideration? Something like: There's a lot of stuff to ship, but margins on those things are very thin + demand for said stuff is extremely elastic due to it not being super essential so there's also not a lot of room for increased driver wages.
  - kspacewalk2 5y ago
    This is a much better framing of the problem. And a much clearer case for automation.
  - amoorthy 5y ago
    Well said! Thank you.
  - shostack 5y ago
    Thank you. The one sided view we typically see on this, while in m supporting my views on paying people what they are worth, often glosses over that this isn't evil fat cat monopolists with monocles trying to keep the man down in all these cases. Entire business models or industries may no longer be viable without major pricing changes throughout the solid k supply chain, which will ultimately give the consumer sticker shock. It's a hot mess. Doesn't mean drivers shouldn't get paid more, but also doesn't mean it's pure selfish capitalism on behalf of those hiring them.
lowkey_ 5y ago
Side note but I absolutely love the reference to Dude, Where's My Car [1] in the title. It wouldn't have been as entertaining or remotely shocking to me if this were a tech startup's blog, but there's something awesome about a prestigious finance company like JP Morgan referencing an iconic, trashy, Ashton Kutcher stoner comedy film. From a marketing standpoint, when you establish yourself over decades as a very serious company, I guess it makes it all the better when you loosen that image up. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dude,_Where%27s_My_Car%3F https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dude,_Where%27s_My_Car%3F
- htrp 5y ago
  You must not read many research reports.... research analysts have a pretty well developed sense of humor
  - thehappypm 5y ago
    Usually it’s just a bunch of hitchhikers guide to the galaxy quotes
yuy910616 5y ago
Man...I don't know how good the argument is because it's not a field I'm familiar with. But the charts and arguments are so well done. Each chart is simple yet very illustrative. Moments like this where I'm reminded that BI is really more about telling a good story. Kudos!
- konschubert 5y ago
  “Not sure if the argument is good but the charts look cool” - welcome to consulting.
yodon 5y ago
I'm not used to seeing a terms and conditions click-through on a blog post, but that's a pretty amazing discussion of large scale global supply chain issues at play today.
- Reebz 5y ago
  It’s an SEC requirement and so it’s not construed as investment advice given by a licensed broker.
justinator 5y ago
There’s limited economic incentive to build new 200-mm chip plants given wafer-thin margins Oh I see what they did there
- tomcam 5y ago
  Super I annoyed I missed that. Good on you!
degenerate 5y ago
https://archive.is/nFUL3#3% https://archive.is/nFUL3#3%
- ComputerGuru 5y ago
  I’m presuming this is the same link that was submitted, in typical HN fashion? For some reason the captcha won’t load for me. But I’m curious - why submit the mirror if the source isn’t behind a paywall and isn’t likely to succumb to an HN-induced overload?
  - degenerate 5y ago
    No paywall, but there's a page-blocking T&C modal that cannot be dismissed unless you "Accept" the terms. The archive link doesn't force you to accept.
  - scbrg 5y ago
    Link rot.
newbie789 5y ago
Advocating for an increase in foreclosures (increase the homeless population) and an increase in “acquired immunity” (read: let COVID run rampant and employ whoever survives) is incredibly ghoulish. It’s made even more shameful by its casual tone and tongue in cheek decades-old pop culture title. This article openly and unequivocally advocates for human misery and death in order to avoid upward pressure on wages.
- kspacewalk2 5y ago
  He's an analyst trying to reason about the near term future of the global economy, backing up his arguments with data. That's his job. Your ascribing malice and ill will to observations of someone who's not making decisions is a little bit silly.
  - newbie789 5y ago
    If my job were to be to subtract all traces of humanity from language about things that directly affect countless people, I’d consider that to be ghoulish even though I was receiving a paycheck. The idea that my pointing out that something somebody said was distasteful is “a little bit silly” on the grounds that the author was paid to write those words seems… ghoulish?
    - xfhgjxcfgh 5y ago
      You might want to avoid medical textbooks.
      - newbie789 5y ago
        I’ve never read a JP Morgan medical text book, but that’s a salient point.
    - onlyrealcuzzo 5y ago
      How is not foreclosing on seriously delinquent US homeowners and letting people go about their lives and jobs (aka COVID run rampant) in the US any worse than not building housing for homeless people in Mexico and India and not making it a priority to vaccinate the entire global population on our own dime? Why is it so evil to not give thousands of dollars to US people - but it's fine to do to non US people?
throw0101a 5y ago
In a related note, see the chart "Input prices are pushing up inflation": * https://www.oecd.org/economic-outlook#GDP-growth-projections-2021-2022- https://www.oecd.org/economic-outlook#GDP-growth-projections... Using Feb 2020 as a baseline of ~100, Shipping is now 482.
m0zg 5y ago
Could someone knowledgeable please explain how it is that we're having _worse_ infection rates than last year given that, by CDC estimates, 160M+ people already had covid [1] (and is therefore at least partially immune), and hundreds of millions of people had the vaccine? Nothing seems to make sense anymore, and nobody, as far as I can tell, is willing to offer a coherent explanation. [1] https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd... - note that the case numbers people typically refer to aren't the right numbers to be referring to - they do not take unreported cases into account. The CDC estimates there are 4.2x as many cases as the "confirmed" ones that everyone is hyperventilating about.
- throw0101a 5y ago
  The infection rates may be worse than last year because last year, 2020, large swaths of the country were in lock down, and so your chances of actually getting infected may have been lower since you were probably (a) staying at home, and (b) mostly interacting with a small circle of people. Now many areas of the US have lifted restrictions, but many people are not protecting themselves: they are refusing to get vaccines, and they are refusing to wear masks. And then they gather willy-nilly. >95% of the people in ICUs are folks that are not vaccinated. Plus we have a new variant of COVID—Delta—that is both more contagious, and may hit you harder.
  - m0zg 5y ago
    > large swaths of the country were in lock down Not in September. There were massive riots and political rallies, remember? > they are refusing to get vaccines A lot of them are already immune due to having had covid. About half, assuming random sampling. And last year _nobody_ had any vaccines. > people are not protecting themselves Protections that are currently deployed are mostly "covid theater" anyway. Nobody even checks your body temperature when you go into a grocery store or board a plane. > Plus we have a new variant of COVID—Delta—that is both more contagious, and may hit you harder. The first part of that is true, but the second is not - Delta seems to be more contagious but less deadly. This is a fairly common progression in viral evolution.
gHosts 5y ago
Anyone else feel there is a disconnect between what he is saying and his graphs? Sort of "I have opinions, here are pictures, trust me".
- konschubert 5y ago
  consulting :)
singhrac 5y ago
My favorite thing about this is that the URL is "dude-where-is-my-stuff"; can't use apostrophes in banking anywhere.
- eyelidlessness 5y ago
  It would probably be escaped in the URL, and most content management systems since at least the early oughts either omits or substitutes words with punctuation (and may give content managing humans control over that) for SEO purposes.
vmception 5y ago
I'm glad they linked the bank research report instead of a comedic and sensational Zerohedge article. Please continue doing this, and less of that.
- Grif_Thev 5y ago
  If you're interested in the industry and solving today's supply chain peak with technology, please don't hesitate to contact us at BlueCargo! contact@bluecargo.io
htrp 5y ago
>2 According to a paper released by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve, 70% of the massive rise in fintech loans is simply due to regulatory arbitrage rather than fintech lenders having superior technology or lower costs. Also: shadow banks now control the riskiest segment of the market (FHA). You get what you pay for. See “Fintech, Regulatory Arbitrage and the Rise of Shadow Banks”, Buchak et al, NBER, 2017. Under the radar comment.
- Ericson2314 5y ago
  One of the long term trends of Capitalism post industrialization is that the assets bubbles get stupider and stupider. How I long for the days when the asset bubbles were laying railroads or other such things. For tulips thou art, and unto tulips shalt thou return
- robocat 5y ago
  https://www.fdic.gov/analysis/cfr/bank-research-conference/annual-17th/papers/15-piskorski.pdf https://www.fdic.gov/analysis/cfr/bank-research-conference/a...
aazaa 5y ago
> The containership industry is a good illustration of the supply chain mess: as shown in the first chart, more than 70 containerships are stacked up outside Los Angeles/Long Beach ports waiting to unload. Idle containerships are back to just 3% of the total fleet, shipping costs are surging, manufacturing delivery times are extended and rail shipments are declining sharply from their summer peak, illustrating the far reaching impact of the delays. I'm surprised that the article doesn't take up what happens when that logjam eventually clears. At some point those ships will clear out of LA and there will be no more pile up. All the goods will have been distributed. Meanwhile, the world's container ship capacity will have increased by some large factor (30%, 50%) to address the shortage. Fast forward 1-2 years and we have a world that's a mirror image of today's: surplus everything. Too much oil. Too much container ship capacity. Too many semiconductors. Too many employees. It's not like COVID increased overall world demand relative to 2019. Rather, it created a log jam getting everything back to normal. The current action in Washington DC around the budget sets the stage for rollback of the massive government transfers and deficit spending of the last 18 months. Eventually, those evictions will happen. Eventually. Demand shocks can work both ways.
- Ericson2314 5y ago
  We should permanently boost demand which will allows environment investments to pan out better and make us all richer. But too bad, we rather have loose labor markets to better lord it over the masses than more prosperity for them and us. In fact, we unlearned economics --- "boosting remand has no long term effect because..." --- to better doublethink and not confront the fact that we were anti-growth.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
- cracker_jacks 5y ago
  This is a well-known phenomenon known as the bullwhip effect (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullwhip_effect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullwhip_effect).
echlebek 5y ago
Here's the link to the actual content, without having to "agree" to anything. https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/dude-where-is-my-stuff-amv.pdf https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/ins...
- smileybarry 5y ago
  You can also disable JavaScript and everything will load properly.
blunte 5y ago
How times have changed. I would never have imagined JP Morgan approving a formal public title such as this. But here it is. No objections to it, but it's certainly a change in standards. (and no objection to a change of standards when they fit the situation)
- bidirectional 5y ago
  Analyst research notes have often conveyed humour. This has been a trend for years[1]. https://www.bloomberg.com/professional/blog/boring-wall-street-analyst-notes-bold-funny/ https://www.bloomberg.com/professional/blog/boring-wall-stre...
whydoineedthis 5y ago
Anyone who thinks 2022 is going to have a downturn is mistaken, IMHO. Foreclosure moratorium + low interest rates + rising home values (aka, equity) gave most folks whom would be in the rears a chance to refinance. Only true deadbeats whom didn't work are going to go nuts up, and since the labor market is tight, there are few of those. Aka, housing will not resolve. Many businesses have already started raising wages. When the unemployment boosters stop, people are still going to want a living wage, and there will remain competition to do so. The labor shortage will not resolve. All the science on Delta variant clearly spells out a longer 'covid life' outcome, anyone whom says we need more data is being ignorant. COVID will not resolve. We're not the only country dumping money into the streets, and with China doing well, they love buying American stocks. Along with the rest of the world. That's a ton of money entering the market. There will not be a correction. Unfortunately, Bitcoin will also rise. There's no incentive for the whales to bail out now, especially as miners are finding energy at true wholesale cost or cheaper. It does make it more resilient. As much as I hate Bitcoin, it too is going to be benefit. I'm not saying there will never be a correction, but it's not going to be in early 22, and I still doubt late 22 as well. You heard it here first.
- david927 5y ago
  on the contrary, the world is facing a global economic collapse the likes of which it has never seen before.
  - somenewaccount1 5y ago
    possibly true, but not in 22.
    - david927 5y ago
      So... this year? :-) If you agree the building is going to explode, you don’t start talking confidently about how you probably have another hour but instead leave the building.
- dna_polymerase 5y ago
antman 5y ago
There is the beer distribution game from MIT which illustrates the bullwhip effect in supply chains. If you try it, you’ll see that it’s a sobering experience. https://www.kearney.com/web/beer-distribution-game/the-bullwhip-effect https://www.kearney.com/web/beer-distribution-game/the-bullw...
- Geee 5y ago
  Where is the game?
  - TecoAndJix 5y ago
    Here is one: https://beergame.masystem.se https://beergame.masystem.se
sparsely 5y ago
> So far, most analyses show very little job growth differentials between US states that terminated subsidies vs those that didn’t1. That said, some forecasts call for 1.3 million new jobs by year-end due to expiring unemployment benefits and another 300,000 new jobs due to school reopening "The evidence so far contradicts these forecasts, nevertheless..."
amelius 5y ago
> Ford is actually offering customers faster delivery if they agree to “lower feature content”, which translates into fewer semiconductors. Sounds like a good deal. You get a car instead of a "platform".
- josefresco 5y ago
  I was surprised (impressed?) auto manufacturers could just "leave out" chips and features and still have a working/functional vehicle. I always assumed it would be too complicated given how complicated some of these systems are.
praveen9920 5y ago
> First, the world is going to need more containers.. Isnt the issue with ports and their infra rather than containers or ships count?
WhereIsSweden 5y ago
Why the article doesn't mention the Lockdowns at all?
DebtDeflation 5y ago
Looking at the very first chart, containerships anchored in Los Angeles and Long Beach started increasing dramatically in late 2020, peaked in January 2021, then started falling back down almost reaching pre-pandemic levels by around June 2021. Then, in July 2021, they started rising quickly again, that rise has continued unabated, and as of now, the level is at the highest it has ever been, and almost TWICE the previous peak in January 2021. What specifically caused this sudden spike over the last 3 months?
- callmeal 5y ago
  >What specifically caused this sudden spike over the last 3 months? Looks like it's because ships are leaving empty for China so the unloading has slowed since the available warehouse space is taken up by outbound shipments (which are not being loaded because of that mismatch in shipping rates): However, westbound freight rates have not risen nearly as much, leading to an odd and problematic phenomenon: incentives for container owners to move them back to China empty to accelerate receipt of eastbound freight rates, instead of waiting for containers to be refilled to earn westbound freight rates as well. This is illustrated in the fourth chart which shows departing containers from LA/LB: a lot of them started leaving empty once eastbound freight rates surged. This further exacerbates supply chain issues, since US goods (i.e., grains) that were supposed to depart US railcars and warehouses for export remain in place, occupying space that US imported goods were destined for.
einpoklum 5y ago
Some of the numbers in this article are complete B/S, like the unemployment rates y/y% (as if there is no covid crisis) or the wages (which seem cooked, and anyway, are only in one sector).

354 points by throw0101a 5y ago

mdonahoe 5y ago

I've never seen Terms & Conditions on a blog before "Please read through the disclaimer before entering the site"

neom 5y ago
I'm 97% sure it's due to SEC regulation for financial advisors when disclosing information that could be invested on.
- RONROC 5y ago
  How’d you land at 97? Probably best to use 99, 100, or some variation of “I’m fairly certain”, no? I am only 96% kidding ;)
  - neom 5y ago
    Well, I'm 100% sure that some of that is there for SEC reasons, but I'm not 100% sure the primary motivator for putting it up is the SEC, JPM being JPM and all, who knows... so, as throwing caution to the wind, I put 97%, as I also feel 100% sure I don't really trust JPM. :)
ocdtrekkie 5y ago
I decided to say no cuz I didn't want to agree to it and it punted me out to their home page. :/ EULAs are awful.
htrp 5y ago
A lot of this content is only approved for certain geographical jurisdictions due to the amount of protections most governments put on their local banking/financial services sector.
kragen 5y ago
Firefox reader mode solves this.
- nicbou 5y ago
  Anything that doesn't improve upon reader mode is superfluous design.

RobRivera 5y ago

if you don't want me to read your blog, keep the terms and conditions page. I am clearly not your audience.

pianoben 5y ago
Same - I bounced right out. I'm not reading all of that.
Brendinooo 5y ago
I'm curious what zapping the modal with uBlock Origin means, from the perspective of a JP Morgan lawyer
- ComputerGuru 5y ago
  Some organizations’ legal teams would consider that unauthorized access and try to charge you with hacking.
- ruined 5y ago
  there was a modal? i guess having javascript disabled exempts me from the terms
ComputerGuru 5y ago
Get BehindTheOverlay Revival if you are on desktop.
tejtm 5y ago
left click, block element ... or not

michael_j_ward 5y ago

For anyone working on supply chains, what risks are you worried about that others seem to be ignoring?

nabaraz 5y ago

Somewhat related, how does Brightcove hide the media files? I do not see any mp4 or other video files in the network tab. Is this like the good ol' times with flash player?

dqv 5y ago
It looks like they use media blobulation similar to how Twitter does it.
recursive 5y ago
It's split into ~9 second excerpts. Each are loaded by ajax on demand. They're served with content type video/MP2T. JS loads the content of the response into a Blob. `URL.createObjectURL` converts each piece into a "blob:"-scheme URL that can be interpreted by the <video> element on the page.
- alexpetralia 5y ago
  This is awesome - thanks for this explanation! Always wondered how "media" could slip into the browser without being tracked in the Media tab of the Chrome Developer Tools. This explains it!
- rcMgD2BwE72F 5y ago
  Thank you so much for your explanation! I've always wondered how they did that. Do you know any way to get a copy of the full video? I like to play video at 1.5x speed, but some player don't have this feature so I need to obtain the URI (to play the network file with local player ove) or the file itself (e.g with youtube-dl).
NavinF 5y ago
Try reloading the page after opening the network tab.

themodelplumber 5y ago

Wow. Just looking at the charts from ta perspectives, I'd anticipate: - Minimum 10% drop in US goods spending - Huge drop in China shipping container production - Halving of container freight rate between LA and Shanghai - Catastrophic drop in arrangement of freight and cargo prices (PPI) - Jump in US home foreclosures - Drop in emerging market capital inflows - Worker training starting to catch up with business demand - Drop in mfg delivery times - Massive volatility opportunity/chaos, or both, depending on how you see it Possible timelines for these changes do look really close, likely surging early 2022. Probably scary news coming around that time (not reflecting causality so much, as in "scary events cause drops"; you could even read the news as a natural outcome of the drops) Not making any comments here as to good/bad or causality. It looks more like natural shakeouts that could allow for helpful interventions or follow-on effects, depending. For governments, I'd think now is the time to get creative, protecting and planning for homeowners and vulnerable populations and businesses as much possible. The above is speculation... Follow-on predictions - Crypto is going to boom again by early 2022 minimum. Elevator is going up. - Political volatility could get exciting again in the US. - How is political volatility going to show up in PRC? I guess I'd look for more strong moves by government to see where their fears are. - Local business reopening coupons and deals will take off as COVID pressure eases - (I am very bullish wrt US economic growth beyond 2022, we'll see what the catalysts may be. Long-term US is headed toward stabilization psychology, return of the gold watch after consolidation phase(s), IMO) (Downvote if uncomfortable, I claim no crystal ball...)

tomcam 5y ago
Upvoted b/c it feels very well thought out and summarized the article brilliantly. And because I don't know if I agree with you politically, which makes it an even more valuable assessment to me (because I'm not prejudging).
- themodelplumber 5y ago
  Thanks for your comment. I don't even know if I agree with myself politically. I don't claim any position on the spectrum and would rather transcend it than find a place to stay. In my professional training I was taught to watch how human psychology and control dynamics emerge from less-conscious zones of human perception and judgment. To me this paints a different picture of politics than I think most would acknowledge.

lkbm 5y ago

> For all the clients that have asked me about the political and economic problems associated with the rise of autonomous vehicles and more unemployed truckers, I keep telling them they’ve got it backwards: the US has had a trucker shortage for the last few years, and it’s projected to get worse. In addition to the need to point out that "shortage" just means "I don't want to pay market rate", a shortage of truck drivers does not negate the concern of automation causing mass unemployment of truckers. The concern is that the 450,000 truckers will lose their jobs. "We want to have 500,000 truckers who would lose their jobs" doesn't addresses that issue. To be clear, I'm still very much in favor of automation, but people aren't "getting it backwards" here. These are two different problems.

dnissley 5y ago
Could we reframe this in a way that takes both supply and demand sides into consideration? Something like: There's a lot of stuff to ship, but margins on those things are very thin + demand for said stuff is extremely elastic due to it not being super essential so there's also not a lot of room for increased driver wages.
- kspacewalk2 5y ago
  This is a much better framing of the problem. And a much clearer case for automation.
- amoorthy 5y ago
  Well said! Thank you.
- shostack 5y ago
  Thank you. The one sided view we typically see on this, while in m supporting my views on paying people what they are worth, often glosses over that this isn't evil fat cat monopolists with monocles trying to keep the man down in all these cases. Entire business models or industries may no longer be viable without major pricing changes throughout the solid k supply chain, which will ultimately give the consumer sticker shock. It's a hot mess. Doesn't mean drivers shouldn't get paid more, but also doesn't mean it's pure selfish capitalism on behalf of those hiring them.

lowkey_ 5y ago

Side note but I absolutely love the reference to Dude, Where's My Car [1] in the title. It wouldn't have been as entertaining or remotely shocking to me if this were a tech startup's blog, but there's something awesome about a prestigious finance company like JP Morgan referencing an iconic, trashy, Ashton Kutcher stoner comedy film. From a marketing standpoint, when you establish yourself over decades as a very serious company, I guess it makes it all the better when you loosen that image up. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dude,_Where%27s_My_Car%3F https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dude,_Where%27s_My_Car%3F

htrp 5y ago
You must not read many research reports.... research analysts have a pretty well developed sense of humor
- thehappypm 5y ago
  Usually it’s just a bunch of hitchhikers guide to the galaxy quotes

yuy910616 5y ago

Man...I don't know how good the argument is because it's not a field I'm familiar with. But the charts and arguments are so well done. Each chart is simple yet very illustrative. Moments like this where I'm reminded that BI is really more about telling a good story. Kudos!

konschubert 5y ago
“Not sure if the argument is good but the charts look cool” - welcome to consulting.

yodon 5y ago

I'm not used to seeing a terms and conditions click-through on a blog post, but that's a pretty amazing discussion of large scale global supply chain issues at play today.

Reebz 5y ago
It’s an SEC requirement and so it’s not construed as investment advice given by a licensed broker.

justinator 5y ago

There’s limited economic incentive to build new 200-mm chip plants given wafer-thin margins Oh I see what they did there

tomcam 5y ago
Super I annoyed I missed that. Good on you!

degenerate 5y ago

https://archive.is/nFUL3#3% https://archive.is/nFUL3#3%

ComputerGuru 5y ago
I’m presuming this is the same link that was submitted, in typical HN fashion? For some reason the captcha won’t load for me. But I’m curious - why submit the mirror if the source isn’t behind a paywall and isn’t likely to succumb to an HN-induced overload?
- degenerate 5y ago
  No paywall, but there's a page-blocking T&C modal that cannot be dismissed unless you "Accept" the terms. The archive link doesn't force you to accept.
- scbrg 5y ago
  Link rot.

newbie789 5y ago

Advocating for an increase in foreclosures (increase the homeless population) and an increase in “acquired immunity” (read: let COVID run rampant and employ whoever survives) is incredibly ghoulish. It’s made even more shameful by its casual tone and tongue in cheek decades-old pop culture title. This article openly and unequivocally advocates for human misery and death in order to avoid upward pressure on wages.

kspacewalk2 5y ago
He's an analyst trying to reason about the near term future of the global economy, backing up his arguments with data. That's his job. Your ascribing malice and ill will to observations of someone who's not making decisions is a little bit silly.
- newbie789 5y ago
  If my job were to be to subtract all traces of humanity from language about things that directly affect countless people, I’d consider that to be ghoulish even though I was receiving a paycheck. The idea that my pointing out that something somebody said was distasteful is “a little bit silly” on the grounds that the author was paid to write those words seems… ghoulish?
  - xfhgjxcfgh 5y ago
    You might want to avoid medical textbooks.
    - newbie789 5y ago
      I’ve never read a JP Morgan medical text book, but that’s a salient point.
  - onlyrealcuzzo 5y ago
    How is not foreclosing on seriously delinquent US homeowners and letting people go about their lives and jobs (aka COVID run rampant) in the US any worse than not building housing for homeless people in Mexico and India and not making it a priority to vaccinate the entire global population on our own dime? Why is it so evil to not give thousands of dollars to US people - but it's fine to do to non US people?

throw0101a 5y ago

In a related note, see the chart "Input prices are pushing up inflation": * https://www.oecd.org/economic-outlook#GDP-growth-projections-2021-2022- https://www.oecd.org/economic-outlook#GDP-growth-projections... Using Feb 2020 as a baseline of ~100, Shipping is now 482.

m0zg 5y ago

Could someone knowledgeable please explain how it is that we're having _worse_ infection rates than last year given that, by CDC estimates, 160M+ people already had covid [1] (and is therefore at least partially immune), and hundreds of millions of people had the vaccine? Nothing seems to make sense anymore, and nobody, as far as I can tell, is willing to offer a coherent explanation. [1] https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd... - note that the case numbers people typically refer to aren't the right numbers to be referring to - they do not take unreported cases into account. The CDC estimates there are 4.2x as many cases as the "confirmed" ones that everyone is hyperventilating about.

throw0101a 5y ago
The infection rates may be worse than last year because last year, 2020, large swaths of the country were in lock down, and so your chances of actually getting infected may have been lower since you were probably (a) staying at home, and (b) mostly interacting with a small circle of people. Now many areas of the US have lifted restrictions, but many people are not protecting themselves: they are refusing to get vaccines, and they are refusing to wear masks. And then they gather willy-nilly. >95% of the people in ICUs are folks that are not vaccinated. Plus we have a new variant of COVID—Delta—that is both more contagious, and may hit you harder.
- m0zg 5y ago
  > large swaths of the country were in lock down Not in September. There were massive riots and political rallies, remember? > they are refusing to get vaccines A lot of them are already immune due to having had covid. About half, assuming random sampling. And last year _nobody_ had any vaccines. > people are not protecting themselves Protections that are currently deployed are mostly "covid theater" anyway. Nobody even checks your body temperature when you go into a grocery store or board a plane. > Plus we have a new variant of COVID—Delta—that is both more contagious, and may hit you harder. The first part of that is true, but the second is not - Delta seems to be more contagious but less deadly. This is a fairly common progression in viral evolution.

gHosts 5y ago

Anyone else feel there is a disconnect between what he is saying and his graphs? Sort of "I have opinions, here are pictures, trust me".

konschubert 5y ago
consulting :)

singhrac 5y ago

My favorite thing about this is that the URL is "dude-where-is-my-stuff"; can't use apostrophes in banking anywhere.

eyelidlessness 5y ago
It would probably be escaped in the URL, and most content management systems since at least the early oughts either omits or substitutes words with punctuation (and may give content managing humans control over that) for SEO purposes.

vmception 5y ago

I'm glad they linked the bank research report instead of a comedic and sensational Zerohedge article. Please continue doing this, and less of that.

Grif_Thev 5y ago
If you're interested in the industry and solving today's supply chain peak with technology, please don't hesitate to contact us at BlueCargo! contact@bluecargo.io

htrp 5y ago

>2 According to a paper released by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve, 70% of the massive rise in fintech loans is simply due to regulatory arbitrage rather than fintech lenders having superior technology or lower costs. Also: shadow banks now control the riskiest segment of the market (FHA). You get what you pay for. See “Fintech, Regulatory Arbitrage and the Rise of Shadow Banks”, Buchak et al, NBER, 2017. Under the radar comment.

Ericson2314 5y ago
One of the long term trends of Capitalism post industrialization is that the assets bubbles get stupider and stupider. How I long for the days when the asset bubbles were laying railroads or other such things. For tulips thou art, and unto tulips shalt thou return
robocat 5y ago
https://www.fdic.gov/analysis/cfr/bank-research-conference/annual-17th/papers/15-piskorski.pdf https://www.fdic.gov/analysis/cfr/bank-research-conference/a...

aazaa 5y ago

> The containership industry is a good illustration of the supply chain mess: as shown in the first chart, more than 70 containerships are stacked up outside Los Angeles/Long Beach ports waiting to unload. Idle containerships are back to just 3% of the total fleet, shipping costs are surging, manufacturing delivery times are extended and rail shipments are declining sharply from their summer peak, illustrating the far reaching impact of the delays. I'm surprised that the article doesn't take up what happens when that logjam eventually clears. At some point those ships will clear out of LA and there will be no more pile up. All the goods will have been distributed. Meanwhile, the world's container ship capacity will have increased by some large factor (30%, 50%) to address the shortage. Fast forward 1-2 years and we have a world that's a mirror image of today's: surplus everything. Too much oil. Too much container ship capacity. Too many semiconductors. Too many employees. It's not like COVID increased overall world demand relative to 2019. Rather, it created a log jam getting everything back to normal. The current action in Washington DC around the budget sets the stage for rollback of the massive government transfers and deficit spending of the last 18 months. Eventually, those evictions will happen. Eventually. Demand shocks can work both ways.

Ericson2314 5y ago
We should permanently boost demand which will allows environment investments to pan out better and make us all richer. But too bad, we rather have loose labor markets to better lord it over the masses than more prosperity for them and us. In fact, we unlearned economics --- "boosting remand has no long term effect because..." --- to better doublethink and not confront the fact that we were anti-growth.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
cracker_jacks 5y ago
This is a well-known phenomenon known as the bullwhip effect (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullwhip_effect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullwhip_effect).

echlebek 5y ago

Here's the link to the actual content, without having to "agree" to anything. https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/dude-where-is-my-stuff-amv.pdf https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/ins...

smileybarry 5y ago
You can also disable JavaScript and everything will load properly.

blunte 5y ago

How times have changed. I would never have imagined JP Morgan approving a formal public title such as this. But here it is. No objections to it, but it's certainly a change in standards. (and no objection to a change of standards when they fit the situation)

bidirectional 5y ago
Analyst research notes have often conveyed humour. This has been a trend for years[1]. https://www.bloomberg.com/professional/blog/boring-wall-street-analyst-notes-bold-funny/ https://www.bloomberg.com/professional/blog/boring-wall-stre...

whydoineedthis 5y ago

Anyone who thinks 2022 is going to have a downturn is mistaken, IMHO. Foreclosure moratorium + low interest rates + rising home values (aka, equity) gave most folks whom would be in the rears a chance to refinance. Only true deadbeats whom didn't work are going to go nuts up, and since the labor market is tight, there are few of those. Aka, housing will not resolve. Many businesses have already started raising wages. When the unemployment boosters stop, people are still going to want a living wage, and there will remain competition to do so. The labor shortage will not resolve. All the science on Delta variant clearly spells out a longer 'covid life' outcome, anyone whom says we need more data is being ignorant. COVID will not resolve. We're not the only country dumping money into the streets, and with China doing well, they love buying American stocks. Along with the rest of the world. That's a ton of money entering the market. There will not be a correction. Unfortunately, Bitcoin will also rise. There's no incentive for the whales to bail out now, especially as miners are finding energy at true wholesale cost or cheaper. It does make it more resilient. As much as I hate Bitcoin, it too is going to be benefit. I'm not saying there will never be a correction, but it's not going to be in early 22, and I still doubt late 22 as well. You heard it here first.

david927 5y ago
on the contrary, the world is facing a global economic collapse the likes of which it has never seen before.
- somenewaccount1 5y ago
  possibly true, but not in 22.
  - david927 5y ago
    So... this year? :-) If you agree the building is going to explode, you don’t start talking confidently about how you probably have another hour but instead leave the building.
dna_polymerase 5y ago

antman 5y ago

There is the beer distribution game from MIT which illustrates the bullwhip effect in supply chains. If you try it, you’ll see that it’s a sobering experience. https://www.kearney.com/web/beer-distribution-game/the-bullwhip-effect https://www.kearney.com/web/beer-distribution-game/the-bullw...

Geee 5y ago
Where is the game?
- TecoAndJix 5y ago
  Here is one: https://beergame.masystem.se https://beergame.masystem.se

sparsely 5y ago

> So far, most analyses show very little job growth differentials between US states that terminated subsidies vs those that didn’t1. That said, some forecasts call for 1.3 million new jobs by year-end due to expiring unemployment benefits and another 300,000 new jobs due to school reopening "The evidence so far contradicts these forecasts, nevertheless..."

amelius 5y ago

> Ford is actually offering customers faster delivery if they agree to “lower feature content”, which translates into fewer semiconductors. Sounds like a good deal. You get a car instead of a "platform".

josefresco 5y ago
I was surprised (impressed?) auto manufacturers could just "leave out" chips and features and still have a working/functional vehicle. I always assumed it would be too complicated given how complicated some of these systems are.

praveen9920 5y ago

> First, the world is going to need more containers.. Isnt the issue with ports and their infra rather than containers or ships count?

WhereIsSweden 5y ago

Why the article doesn't mention the Lockdowns at all?

DebtDeflation 5y ago

Looking at the very first chart, containerships anchored in Los Angeles and Long Beach started increasing dramatically in late 2020, peaked in January 2021, then started falling back down almost reaching pre-pandemic levels by around June 2021. Then, in July 2021, they started rising quickly again, that rise has continued unabated, and as of now, the level is at the highest it has ever been, and almost TWICE the previous peak in January 2021. What specifically caused this sudden spike over the last 3 months?

callmeal 5y ago
>What specifically caused this sudden spike over the last 3 months? Looks like it's because ships are leaving empty for China so the unloading has slowed since the available warehouse space is taken up by outbound shipments (which are not being loaded because of that mismatch in shipping rates): However, westbound freight rates have not risen nearly as much, leading to an odd and problematic phenomenon: incentives for container owners to move them back to China empty to accelerate receipt of eastbound freight rates, instead of waiting for containers to be refilled to earn westbound freight rates as well. This is illustrated in the fourth chart which shows departing containers from LA/LB: a lot of them started leaving empty once eastbound freight rates surged. This further exacerbates supply chain issues, since US goods (i.e., grains) that were supposed to depart US railcars and warehouses for export remain in place, occupying space that US imported goods were destined for.

einpoklum 5y ago

Some of the numbers in this article are complete B/S, like the unemployment rates y/y% (as if there is no covid crisis) or the wages (which seem cooked, and anyway, are only in one sector).