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Americans Are Keeping Their Cars Longer, as Vehicle Age Hits 12 Years

• hn_throwaway_99 5y ago
  The biggest issue for me with keeping cars a long time is really safety. I kept my last car for 17 years, and by the time I got rid of it, it was really light-years behind modern vehicles in terms of safety features (no side air bags, no rearview cam, no anti-lock breaks, no collision avoidance systems, etc.) It was still going pretty strong but vehicle tech advances rather quickly these days that after about a decade there is really a sizable improvement in safety.
  • daniellarusso 5y ago
    What year was the vehicle that did not have anti-lock brakes? I think it was not mandated into US law until about a decade ago, but some OEMs have offered it since 1987, like Mercedes Benz
    • aidenn0 5y ago
      Not OP, but ABS wasn't mandatory in the US until 1999, about 20 years after the first S class shipped with them.
      • lotsofpulp 5y ago
        Electronic Stability Control is what was mandated in the US a decade ago.
      • swimfar 5y ago
        An earlier form of anti-lock brakes were available in some American cars starting in the late 60's. It was standard in the 1974 Lincoln Continental, 4 years before Mercedes even had it as an option. https://www.hagerty.com/media/archived/antilock-brakes/ https://www.hagerty.com/media/archived/antilock-brakes/
      • joecool1029 5y ago
        Only mandatory for trucks. My 2002 miata is a non-ABS car.
    • everdrive 5y ago
      My first car was a 1997 Jeep Cherokee with no antilock brakes. So at least as late as 1997.
    • hn_throwaway_99 5y ago
      Yes, ABS was definitely a feature in 2000, but they were optional on many (most?) cars back then.
  • chrisseaton 5y ago
    My 2009 Land Rover, which I upgraded recently to a 2020 Land Rover, didn't even have airbags. 12 years is a very very long time in safety tech. I would not be happy driving around a vehicle that's over ten years old these days.
    • fibers 5y ago
      do you mean the side airbags from the diagonal posts because this seems flagrantly illegal if it was the bags on the wheel/glove box
      • chrisseaton 5y ago
        > seems flagrantly illegal Didn't have any airbags at all. Not illegal in the rest of the world but I think they didn't sell them in the US.
        • hn_throwaway_99 5y ago
          Yeah, that just seems weird that other countries would be so far behind. Front air bags have been required as standard equipment in the US since 1997.
          • chrisseaton 5y ago
            I think it's some exceptions for 'rugged' vehicles.
    • ericbarrett 5y ago
      That’s pretty shocking. What country? My 1995 Mustang had airbags and ABS.
      • chrisseaton 5y ago
        > What country? The UK, but it was the same model they sold everywhere that they sold them.
  • lotsofpulp 5y ago
    There are some statistics by model year in this article: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimgorzelany/2018/05/11/newer-cars-much-safer-than-older-ones-nhtsa-says/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimgorzelany/2018/05/11/newer-c...
  • fibers 5y ago
    this seems like yet another excuse for X as a service just to induce even more demand from subscription based services. there's nothing wrong with merely accepting autos as a giant depreciating asset that does exactly as you need and once you have finished financing the vehicle you can amortize its cost by double the years of the median financing term.
    • dlgeek 5y ago
      Isn't that the point of leasing?
  • nzmsv 5y ago
    Even without improvements to air bags and the like a newer car is safer because it's body has less structural fatigue. It would be stronger in a crash.
  • aeharding 5y ago
    Safety... for whom? Occupants, yes. But for pedestrians, bicyclists and other vulnerable road users, it's gotten worse with the trend for larger vehicles [1][2][3] in the last decade. [1] https://www.iihs.org/news/detail/new-study-suggests-todays-suvs-are-more-lethal-to-pedestrians-than-cars https://www.iihs.org/news/detail/new-study-suggests-todays-s... [2] https://www.ghsa.org/sites/default/files/2021-03/Ped%20Spotlight%202021%20FINAL%203.23.21.pdf https://www.ghsa.org/sites/default/files/2021-03/Ped%20Spotl... [3] https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/oct/03/collision-course-pedestrian-deaths-rising-driverless-cars https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/oct/03/collision...
    • lumost 5y ago
      This looks like a solvable problem, why aren't bumpers/hoods/doors optimized to protect pedestrians and bikers?
      • dharmab 5y ago
        Pedestrian impact is an explicit design feature in modern cars. That's why bumpers and hoods have the same general shape on nearly every modern car. However, trucks and SUV have become extremely popular. There's only so much you can compensate for when the mass of the car is increased. IIHS is changing tests now to incorporate pedestrian safety tests. NHTSA is also considering the change.
        • stefan_ 5y ago
          There is zero technical reason for trucks and SUVs to have the large hood they do that strikes adult pedestrians center mass (and kids at head level). It's extra comical on the upcoming electronic versions where instead of safe design, you get a "frunk". It's design nonsense and the only reason it ever got this bad is the regulators are fully captured.
      • i80and 5y ago
        New hoods often are, actually — Euro NCAP tests pedestrian collision safety. Notably the VW ID.4 at least has a hood designed to collapse inward in that case; I assume other cars have this feature as well
  • DavidPeiffer 5y ago
    I completely agree. Ideally, we'd have a fleet of recent model year cars on the road, and would utilize them very heavily so in 5 years, they have ~200,000 miles on them and are near the end of their life. I know an older couple with two vehicles from 2008 with 36k and 54k miles on them. They are in great shape, always parked in the garage at home, etc. While their natural life might be 150k, it's very likely they will be in a junkyard before then. Part availability becomes an increasing concern. From an environmental standpoint, old cars were manufactured under less stringent emissions standards. At a certain point, the emissions required to manufacture a car are more than offset by the marginally lower emissions from a new vehicle.
    • gregable 5y ago
      Interesting thought, but does it change anything? Each vehicle is still driven the same # of total miles and the same number of annual total miles are driven, so I'm not sure if the resulting carbon output is any different.
      • DavidPeiffer 5y ago
        From a safety standpoint, we'd have fewer deaths after implementation. Everyone would be on modern safety features. From an environmental standpoint, the benefit would be on vehicles where parts get more difficult to find or the owner deems the vehicle to be lacking sufficient safety features (and possibly both, a couple hundred dollar repair prompting the owner to retire the car). I don't have any numbers to estimate the impact, it's my shower thought for how to maximize asset utilization and minimize vehicle deaths.
        • lotsofpulp 5y ago
          > From an environmental standpoint, the benefit would be on vehicles where parts get more difficult to find or the owner deems the vehicle to be lacking sufficient safety features (and possibly both, a couple hundred dollar repair prompting the owner to retire the car). What does any of that have to do with the environmental standpoint?
  • throwaway0a5e 5y ago
    You are a statistical anomaly. Most people are not letting "never in a lifetime" frequency events have more than tertiary influence over major purchasing decisions.
• ericabiz 5y ago
  https://archive.is/3zL8e https://archive.is/3zL8e
• echelon 5y ago
  Because of factors we often don't consider (such as this), I have a hard time believing ICE cars will be less than 50% of the US market (edit: including used cars) in the next 20 years.
  • sp332 5y ago
    Among new cars? What advantage would ICE cars have in 20 years?
    • karaterobot 5y ago
      I assume they mean that people buying ICE cars within the next 5-10 years will still have them by then.
      • sp332 5y ago
        Oh, so not sales (new or used), but "install base".
    • eyeball 5y ago
      ability to run well in upper midwest winters
    • syshum 5y ago
      It has yet to be seen if a mass produced sub-30K electric will be economically viable for a owner at the 10+ year ownership scale. ICE is proven to be if maintained. Battery maintenance costs may prove to be the achilles heel of Electric Car ownership, which is why so many people are pushing for a post ownership society / CAAS (car as a service) model instead of owning a car
      • echelon 5y ago
        > which is why so many people are pushing for a post ownership society / CAAS (car as a service) model instead of owning a car This is great for dense city dwellers that don't use their car much, but horrific for suburbanites, rural Americans, and people that drive more than 15k miles per year. Reduction in ownership is happening everywhere. Devices, media, now cars and homes. It's not a good trend for many consumers. We'll all wind up as serfs.
• ppg677 5y ago
  Cars now last longer than their useful life. Especially for those who don't drive 20k miles/year. My 2013 car has 35,000 miles on it. Beautiful car (Hyundai Genesis sedan). 8 airbags. But it lacks a rear-view camera and doesn't have the modern stuff like collision avoidance that pretty much comes standard nowadays.
  • lotsofpulp 5y ago
    Rear view camera are pretty easy to install with any new CarPlay/Android Auto compatible head unit.
    • MrRadar 5y ago
      Any head unit new enough to support CarPlay or Android Auto is also probably new enough that it's already in a vehicle with a backup camera...
      • ghaff 5y ago
        I looked at installing a backup camera in my 10 year old 4Runner a couple years back after a friend got me one for Christmas. After looking through a bunch of YouTube videos, we returned it. It was going to be a significant project.
        • lotsofpulp 5y ago
          I installed a Sony CarPlay unit and camera in my 2003 4Runner back in 2016, and I thought it was pretty easy. Took a few hours, but nothing complicated.
          • ghaff 5y ago
            I'm sure I could have done it. It just seemed more trouble than it was worth.
        • cpwright 5y ago
          As a counterpoint, I installed a Kenwood Carplay unit and backup camera in an F150 a few years ago and was not very difficult at all. It took a couple of evenings (one for the camera one for the head unit). Crutchfield will sell you a plug and play adapter from your factory radio to the new radio's pin outs. They do the wiring so you don't have to solder anything. Having navigation and a backup camera definitely made it much nicer to drive.
• teddyh 5y ago
  New cars also come with their own set of problems: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27462263 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27462263
  • Silhouette 5y ago
    Indeed. I'd benefit from having a newer car in some ways, but I actively don't want any specific new model I've seen for years because of their awful uses of technology. Go back to making cars that are about driving -- safely, efficiently and comfortably -- without all that other junk, and I'll throw money at you. But still not too much money, because I don't think fully electric vehicles and the infrastructure to support them are quite there yet, and anything using an ICE or hybrid tech feels like it's only a stepping stone to the fully electric world that we'll probably be living in a decade from now. I can't imagine why anyone would want to buy the kinds of cars that the big manufacturers are producing today unless they had no choice, and I'm not surprised at all that more people are keeping their existing vehicles for longer.
• joegahona 5y ago
  > While the average vehicle age has risen steadily over the last 15 years, the trend accelerated during the coronavirus pandemic partly because of a drop in new-car sales, IHS said. I'm not a car expert, but I'm guessing the dearth of driving in the past year has also affected this. Anecdotal, but I've put barely any miles on my 2013 car in well over a year, which I see as extending its life. I'm noticing my dealership has really amped up their direct-mail pleas to "come in for service," suggesting this revenue stream has dried up as cars stay in driveways.
  • bgribble 5y ago
    Getting you to come in for service is just an excuse to get you to come in to look at cars. Service is usually a break-even business for dealerships, but it’s a good source of sales leads.
    • mdorazio 5y ago
      This is false. I've worked with many dealerships across different brands and the service department generally makes far more profit than the sales department. This is especially true outside of luxury brands where actual margins on new vehicle sales can be in the single digit percentages, while margins on basic recurring services are huge. See this Edmunds article for a pretty accurate breakdown [1]. [1] https://www.edmunds.com/car-buying/where-does-the-car-dealer-make-money.html https://www.edmunds.com/car-buying/where-does-the-car-dealer...
  • ghaff 5y ago
    While I was consistently surprised how many cars were still on the road over the past 18 months, I'm sure I drove less than a thousand miles. So basically didn't move the needle in terms of replacing my ten year old car.
  • a3n 5y ago
    Similar to my doctor's office (a university/corporate enterprise with multiple offices and hospitals) sending me emails during the pandemic to come in and get seen about this or that.
  • 5y ago
• dukeofdoom 5y ago
  My only problem is rust around the tire well. Anyone know if there is some sort of after plastic trim kit to cover it. Ford edge.
• tmpz22 5y ago
  Was a hair breath away from going to the dealership today and purchasing a new sedan. Realized last night that I was chucking about $10k away in sales tax / insurance premiums on a new car / and vanity - a compact used sedan thats still newish will do me just fine. Getting a rental for a few days just to double check that I was right. Rental market sucks right now because they dumped inventory and demand has gone up, but still better to throw away $400 so I can be sure.
  • ourmandave 5y ago
    Why rent for $400 when you can take a test drive at the dealer? Some will even let you keep it overnight to "think about it."
    • tmpz22 5y ago
      I find test drives to be stressful and would like to have plenty of time to mull it over. Take it on the highway, drive it in the morning to work, do a bit of night driving. I'm also using Turo which is incredibly convenient though more expensive. The option to ask a dealer to keep it overnight is interesting, I wonder if the ones near me would actually let me do it.
      • JKCalhoun 5y ago
        Agree. A Test drive can give you a definite "no", but if you still are okay after a dealer test drive you may still need a few days of testing.
• mattacular 5y ago
  Good! Most modern cars made in the last few decades will easily run for 200,000 miles if properly maintained (oil changes and belts). I don't need the absolute latest and greatest computer safety features. Some of them sound nice but if it has side+passenger airbags and seatbelts then that is good enough for me. On the flip side, one of my family members gets a new car every year through some kind of special leasing program. Not only does that seem wasteful from a number of angles but how do you not get attached to a car you love driving? Once I find a car I like then I don't want to give it up unless maintenance becomes prohibitively expensive and even then it can be tough.
  • thaumasiotes 5y ago
    Let's not forget that car manufacturers seem to be determined to ensure that new cars are worse than old cars. What do I want in a car? - No bluetooth. - No touchscreens. - Really, no screens at all. - Cabled audio input. A rearview camera is a good thing, except it still manages to make the car worse overall because the manufacturers somehow can't stop themselves from using the screen to display other things that should have been displayed in another way.
    • kayodelycaon 5y ago
      Worse for you. I happen to like bluetooth, backup cameras, wireless keys, and a lot of the other modern features cars have now. Manufacturers definitely went wrong putting important controls in the touch screen. That’s a usability nightmare. I’d consider the rest to be personal preference.
      • thaumasiotes 5y ago
        Wireless keys are a feature from the 90s.
        • whynotminot 5y ago
          So are cell phones. But there’s a difference in their quality and ubiquity now right?
• perardi 5y ago
  Well obviously part of that is the average car price nearing $40,000. https://www.consumerreports.org/buying-a-car/people-spending-more-on-new-cars-but-prices-not-necessarily-rising/ https://www.consumerreports.org/buying-a-car/people-spending... Well…sort of. As the article details, there’s a lot at the top of the market that skews that average upwards. But even then, I don’t think you can get into a Honda Civic for less than $20,000. And good luck buying an F-150. But also it’s remarkable how long cars last now. A 2010 car is still probably in fantastic shape. (My parents’ Camry sure is.) And while the new safety features are very useful (c’mon, dad, buy the new car, you need that blind spot warning), if the car ain’t broke, why replace it?
  • throw0101a 5y ago
    > Well obviously part of that is the average car price nearing $40,000. Note inflation. I still have my 2003 Golf TDI that I bought brand new for CA$ 30K (all-in). In 2021 that would be the equivalent of CA$ 41K. * https://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/related/inflation-calculator/ https://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/related/inflation-calculat... Nowadays Golfs (sadly no diesels) are in the CA$ 22-28K range (plus fees/taxs): * https://www.vw.ca/en/models/new-vehicles/golf.html https://www.vw.ca/en/models/new-vehicles/golf.html
    • wolverine876 5y ago
      > Note inflation. Inflation has been exceptionally, historically low for over a decade.
      • mdorazio 5y ago
        "Historically low" does not mean zero. Prices today are 23% more than they were in 2010. So a $20,000 car in 2010 would cost just shy of $25k today even if everything about it was exactly the same.
    • an_opabinia 5y ago
      Indeed, why really do you think cars have actually gotten so much cheaper? Since it's not inflation.
• Svperstar 5y ago
  I'm still driving a 2006 even though I have enough money saved up to buy a brand new car. There is literally nothing wrong with it. I see no point in buying a new car besides impressing people with my new car.
• jliptzin 5y ago
  I kept my ICE car (Lexus RX) for about 6 years, it was a great car and I planned to keep it until I couldn’t use it anymore but once I drove an electric car I knew it was time to upgrade, the technological leap was too great to stay in the past. I hope to keep my electric car for at least 10 years
  • _huayra_ 5y ago
    Is there a 10-year-capable electric car out there? I hope there is because I may need to purchase one soon. I've known too many people have issues with Teslas to consider going for one, and I'm not sure what else is out there.
    • chrisb 5y ago
      My anecdotal experience... I own a Peugot iOn (rebadged Mitsubishi i-MiEV) manufactured in 2012, so it's 9 years old. I bought it second hand, and the service record shows it's needed zero maintenance (aside from tires). I have not needed to perform any maintenance in the ~2 years I've owned it. I'm not in any way recommending this specific car (although it suits me perfectly); but it shows that even a fairly early electric car like this is 10-year capable. The only downside has been the expected gradual decrease in range. I've also owned a Tesla Model 3 for 16 months, and it's been maintenance and trouble free. I'm not denying that some people have problems with them, however that's not been my experience, nor the experience of the two other people I know who own one. I probably plan to keep the Tesla for many years, so hope my trouble-free motoring continues :)
    • jliptzin 5y ago
      I've had my tesla model 3 for 2 years and haven't had to do any maintenance on it whatsoever. I've also been driving it a good amount and haven't noticed any battery degradation (I'm good about charging it to recommended levels). At this point I don't see any reason why it wouldn't last 10 years.
      • _huayra_ 5y ago
        I kinda wish there was a good electric car that wasn't so cloud-connected though. Tesla has done some pretty good things wrt engineering (e.g. see Munro Live on youtube) due to out-of-the-box thinking and a lack of sunk costs in existing "parts box" parts, but I would rather not have Tesla be able to decide to "remove" some features if I purchase the car second-hand [0] The most trouble-free cars I still go for are used Lexus sedans, especially those driven previously be senior citizens. Not always the coolest but man I never have to worry about anything on it. [0] https://jalopnik.com/teslas-removal-of-features-on-used-cars-appears-to-be-i-1842382846 https://jalopnik.com/teslas-removal-of-features-on-used-cars...
• nimbius 5y ago
  Im in automotive maintenance and repair as a trade, and a 12 year old car is no problem for anyone but the people at the wall street journal in my opinion. how long you keep a car is your decision. if you like it, and you're willing to pay for regular maintenance, then keep it. this "long run" comparison of owning and repairing versus buying a new car is just silly. So many people have the incentive to get you to buy a new car, but practically no one has an incentive to tell you to take good care of the things you own so they last. And new cars arent always better. That nice collision avoidance/lane keeper and camera system? that was implemented as a countermeasure for increasing A and B pillar size after regulatory agencies decided too many americans were getting crushed to death in roll-over accidents. collision avoidance was literally the only way auto manufacturers could keep you out of a manslaughter charge thanks to the absolute byzantine nightmare of info-tainment systems that also do things like climate control. controversial opinion here but older cars teach you a healthy fear of operating a 2000lb rolling death machine. no infofainment means they are safer for the driver, and no nanny-state A pillars mean you arent doing 80 in a 65 quite as often. I own a 2000 mercury grand marquis. its a v8 so it inspires me to bipedal transportation pretty often with its fuel enconomy. the biggest problem I have with the car is my coworkers nicknaming me "the don" for driving a murdered-out land yacht but its what i like.
  • Judgmentality 5y ago
    > That nice collision avoidance/lane keeper and camera system? that was implemented as a countermeasure for increasing A and B pillar size after regulatory agencies decided too many americans were getting crushed to death in roll-over accidents. I've never heard this. Anywhere I can read more about this?
    • kdkdmskans 5y ago
      No, because this mechanic who doesn't understand that crumple zones make modern cars way safer than old ones thinks being able to repair cars makes him an engineer
  • oldcigarette 5y ago
    >how long you keep a car is your decision You do repair work in the desert don't you? I mostly agree with your sentiment. However in the rust belt we spray corrosive agents all over our cars and within 5 years loosening half of the fasteners takes 10 times what you are probably familiar with.
• spacedcowboy 5y ago
  Mine is 13 years old, a Mitsubishi Spyder Eclipse GT, and I love it. It currently has about 52,000 miles on the clock, and has never once failed to start during the dozen or so times I’ve used it in the last year - unlike my wife’s much newer car which we keep on a battery charger now as a matter of course. These days, 260hp isn’t much of anything special, but back then it was the most powerful car I’d ever bought, and I still love the whine of the air, increasing in frequency, as I pull onto an empty freeway and put my foot down to get up to speed. Over the years it’s needed a small amount of maintenance - new tires, timing belts etc. But nothing has gone wrong that isn’t expected to happen on the maintenance schedule. That reliability and the fact that it’s been paid for, for over a decade now, is just awesome. Airbags everywhere, excellent brakes, not much rear visibility (but it’s a convertible, so the top is down more often than not), traction control, and a 6-cd changer [grin], what’s not to like :) Having said all that, in a few years it’ll be time to move to an electric car, but I want to stave off that future as long as possible.
  • Finnucane 5y ago
    We have a 1999 Honda CRV with 66K miles on it (we bought it in 2007 with 48K miles on it). Insurance and maintenance cost us on average about $200/month. For the amount of driving we do, it just plain wouldn’t be worth spending more for a new car. We’re figuring when this car finally becomes too expensive to maintain, our next car will be no car, and we’ll just use rental/Zipcar/etc.
    • lotsofpulp 5y ago
      I have a 2003 250k mile 4Runner, and my maintenance calculation is about $1,500 per 50k miles (tires, oil, filters, brakes incl labor). Which comes out to 3 cents per mile, fuel is at 25 cents per mile assuming $4/gal and 16 mpg. I max out liability only insurance at $45 per month for 5k miles per year, so let us round that to 1 cent per mile. So it comes out to 30 cents per mile plus my morbidity/mortality risk. Hard to justify a new car if I am happy with my current driving experience, which all I care about is CarPlay and air conditioning. I am hoping electric cars are fully tested and reliable by the time my car dies. Or someone steals it.
• simmons 5y ago
  One thing that keeps me driving an older car (2002 Honda Accord) is the greatly increased total cost of ownership of newer vehicles. Whenever something needs replaced -- windshield, tires, whatever -- it's often dirt cheap, and the car itself is extremely reliable. On the other hand, my wife's newer Mazda seems to be a perpetual money sink. Everything is so much more expensive to replace. The windshield has special sensors, so it was super expensive to replace. Tires are a lot more expensive. (A nail impact that was just right to destroy the tire cost us close to $1000, but I guess a lot of that is admittedly due to the AWD requiring replacement of all tires.) For these newer cars, the initial cost seems to be a much smaller part of the TCO. I agree with the safety concerns others have mentioned about older cars, and I would gladly pay more for safety. But I do feel a bit frustrated when getting the safety also requires a huge TCO increase for frivolous features. (E.g., are the automatic windshield wipers really worth the 4x cost bump at the glass shop?)
  • kayodelycaon 5y ago
    It depends what car you get. I have a 2014 Toyota Prius and it’s hit over 150,000k miles without more than basic maintenance. Not one part has broken. Fluids aside, it’s only needed one pair of brakes, two sets of tires, and five sets of wiper blades replaced in its lifetime. This is a pretty common experience of Prius owners. There’s also a huge modding community for them, so it’s easy to find information about any part of them. There are even tutorials on how to replace bad cells in the battery pack. (Just don’t drop a wrench and cause a short.)
    • skybrian 5y ago
      If you’re parking it outside, I hope you’ve protected the catalytic converter.
      • kayodelycaon 5y ago
        Theft of catalytic converters isn’t a major issue in my area.
• CryptoPunk 5y ago
  Cars are lasting longer than ever: https://www.reddit.com/r/DIY/comments/zbxa6/resurrection_1986_alfa_romeo_spider_does_diy_like/c63d2zp https://www.reddit.com/r/DIY/comments/zbxa6/resurrection_198... This can be chalked up to another feature of capitalism: planned robustness.
• bruceb 5y ago
  Lots of talk about safety features and reliability in the thread. But I wonder if some of it is lack of great visual differentiation among model years. Harder to tell cars apart and they don’t rust like they used to. Less social pressure to get new car as harder to tell what’s new. Obviously not impossible but not as stark as a 1990 from a 2000 car. 2010 and 2020 car don’t look that much different.
  • tialaramex 5y ago
    In the UK the (non-vanity) plates tell you which six months the car was registered so e.g. a plate AB03 CDE was registered in the first half of 2003, whereas UV71 XYZ is from the second half of 2021. Thus most car owners in the UK can tell (unless you have vanity plates) roughly how old your car is.
    • bruceb 5y ago
      Thats interesting. I wonder what the logic behind this is? A neat experiment would be randomly issue vanity plates that change the year but look normal and see if there is a difference how long a person keeps the car. If having a plate that makes it appear you have a newer car makes you hang on to it longer.
      • sys_64738 5y ago
        In England the plate stays with the vehicle for the lifetime of the vehicle. Totally different in America.
      • dingaling 5y ago
        The original non-dated UK registration system is still in use in Northern Ireland, letters based on county of registration followed by sequential numbers. So a study might be able to look at mainland UK vehicle retention rates versus NI, though it would have to normalise for income and outgoings.
      • Symbiote 5y ago
        You aren't allowed a vanity plate that makes the car look newer, so 'SU51 100' (Susi) can't go on a car from before 2001. Vanity plates must fit a pattern of issue, you can't just ask for "SUSAN" (SUS 4N is from the 1970s or something though). However, people do sometimes put older vanity plates on newer cars to hide the age.
• tootie 5y ago
  For anyone who doesn't have a sub I'll summarize a few salient points people are missing. Most importantly new car sales and prices are at all-time high. The driver of growing car age is the higher quality and durability of cars in the last 20 years and people owning more cars per household. So people are not holding on to old cars and foregoing new purchases but rather doing both. Used car prices are also at all-time high.
  • rsj_hn 5y ago
    The high prices are driven by the chip shortage decreasing supply. In 2019 there were 17 million light vehicles sold, and in 2020, there were only 14.5 million sold. The chip shortage/covid prevented 3 million cars from being manufactured, which drove up prices. It will be a couple of years before this supply effect works through the system. It has nothing to do with consumer behavior choosing to purchase more new cars and driving up the price as a result of increased demand.
• asciimov 5y ago
  The biggest issue with with cars made in the last 25 years is the amount of plastic used in both the engine and interior. As plastics age and go through heat/cool cycles the get brittle and easily fail. It’s infuriating to have to dismantle half the engine just to replace a $5 coolant elbow because GM decided to use a plastic one instead of metal.
  • anonuser123456 5y ago
    It is most certainly not infuriating to the dealerships that get to charge you the 1200$ in labor.
• ratsmack 5y ago
  I have four vehicles ages 22, 18, 14, 11 and one motorcycle at 43 years old. I personally do all maintenance on all my vehicles. I've never bought into the vehicle love affair like much of the marketing portrays automobiles today, I look at them more like you would look at at tool, like a screwdriver or hammer.
• musesum 5y ago
  My Dad owned a GM dealership in the 70's. I grew up working in the parts department. Part of the business model were "genuine Delco parts" plus a very busy service department. So, low fixed cost with high variable cost. Somewhat akin to that cheap printer with expensive ink. Then I read the March 1973 "Bicycle" issue of Scientific American, which measured efficiency in terms of Kilograms/Kilometers/KCalories. Back then bikes were about 28x more efficient than cars. Steve Jobs referred to that article when he declared computers to be a "bicycle for the mind". As for me: I dropped cars and bought a bike.
  • justinator 5y ago
    I had a Geo Metro, which was more motorcycle than car. It was a very dangerous to drive anywhere except on small, city streets (where it excelled). It was finally was too expensive to justify repairing, so I bought a bike - telling myself I'd never buy a car again, unless I could afford something of worth. Well, that was 17 years ago. Turns out where the Geo Metro excelled, a bicycle was even better.
    • musesum 5y ago
      I wonder if an Aptera would qualify as the Geo Metro of EVs? I haven't owned a car since 2008 - living in SF helped. Was commuting to Mt View with the SF2G group. There is one member of the group who's Twitter handle is "Electric cars are still cars" Be that as it may, I reserved an Aptera with a 1000 mile range. Feels less like a car and more like a flightless airplane.
• doodlebugging 5y ago
  We have 6 vehicles. There are nearly 4 drivers in my family. My youngest will finally start driving this summer. We own all our vehicles so maintenance, insurance, and fuel are the only real costs of ownership. Since I have lots of tools accumulated and skills learned over more than 40 years of driving I do a lot of my own maintenance and upgrades. All but one of our vehicles has more than 230k miles on the odometer. The exception has 110k miles and is 6 years old. The other vehicles range in age from 10 years old to 46 years old. We bought 4 of these vehicles new, of the other two one was a gift and the other I bought at auction for a pittance. I prefer older vehicles without all the safety stuff, electronics, etc. They are simple to work on and maintain and will last a long time without having to be molly-coddled. I do appreciate the skills needed by the new vehicle designers to fit all that crap under the hood, inside the dash, etc. and make it all work. The drawback is that this does make some maintenance work a lot more difficult than it should be as things have to be moved out of the way to fix relatively simple problems. I don't see airbags and things like that as necessary features. I only have 3 vehicles that came with them and all 3 have had bags recalled. As long as I have space to store the vehicles and the option to start and stop insurance coverage (shift from daily driver to stored vehicle) with 24 hours notice I will likely keep all of them since we own them. I have a hard time getting excited about spending $30k or more for a vehicle that will monitor everything I do, how I choose to do it, where I go, etc. You will never own that vehicle like I own mine. I am not one of those redneck dipshits who disables emission controls, lifts the body and buys larger tires. I use OEM parts for everything when they are available, aftermarket parts if they aren't. All my vehicles except one are or could be daily drivers for anyone. My wife and my kids drive them so they have to work right and be safe with no mechanical issues that could leave them in a bind. Over the years I have had to upgrade my maintenance skills to be able to troubleshoot electronics, sensors, etc. That is probably the one thing that I appreciate most about newer vehicles, that I have been forced to learn new things and to buy new tools. Who doesn't like new tools? I have also learned a lot about several manufacturers and the corners they cut or the extra steps they take to improve the ownership experience. Cars are pretty great. Trucks are pretty greater. I am excited to finally see wide adoption of electric vehicles. It can't come soon enough. I think Musk might have said that part of the reason he started building cars was to try to drive the old guard companies into a shift to electrics. With Ford, GM, Toyota, Honda, etc getting on board I think he has satisfied that goal and we will all benefit. As someone who worked 40 years in the oil and gas business I just want to see all that ended. Regulate it out of existence or do as investment houses are doing and just cut off funding for new exploration. Where would that leave all my older vehicles? Well, I would have great platforms for conversion to electrics or I could scrap them and let their materials become something else useful. Like the rocks, everything changes with time.
• aerovistae 5y ago
  Meanwhile I'm still rocking a 1998 Subaru Legacy. Runs perfectly.
  • justinator 5y ago
    Whats's your plan for the head gaskets?
    • aerovistae 5y ago
      Had em replaced a few years ago, no issues!
• outside1234 5y ago
  Just wait until electric cars hit the mainstream - those things are going to last forever in places like California. Honestly, they might be come infeasible from a software perspective far before they do from a mechanical perspective.
  • heavyset_go 5y ago
    > Just wait until electric cars hit the mainstream - those things are going to last forever in places like California. Their batteries sure won't.
    • elihu 5y ago
      Depends on the technology and how well they're thermally managed. Lithium iron phosphate cells are starting to show up in lower-end EVs and those could last a very long time. Really, the thing with old batteries isn't so much that they degrade (though a few cars had problems with it like the early Nissan Leafs), but rather that the technology is getting better all the time, and even if degradation isn't a factor, a twenty-year-old battery will be based on twenty-year-old tech, whereas newer cars will be have more range, charge more quickly, and be lighter.
  • Zandikar 5y ago
    Modern cars last a long time, regardless of the powerplant. Old cars having catastrophic mechanical failure doesn't drive ownership turnover - in fact the opposite is true for most vehicles, as it's easier and cheaper to address significant mechanical failure in say, an 80's Chevy pickup than a similar issues in 2010's chevy pickup. Turnover instead is primarily attributed to mounting maintenance/ownership costs that are primarily related to all the value-add features companies keep adding to keep up with joneses. In addition, "Catastrophic" Failures (eg Totalling) is much more prevalent not due to unreliability of ICE systems, but rather, the new safety standards that result in high replacement costs (crumple zones for example can turn even minor incidents into significant repair costs, even if it's not mechanically compromised). Those same pain points will be just as if not more present, no matter the powerplant, and the simplicity of electrical drivetrains will be offset by the high cost and short life of batteries (unless there's some revolution in battery tech on the horizon, which I certainly hope for, and is possible, but am not expecting to happen as a simple result of economies of scale). So the drivetrains may well last longer, but that's not what drives first-owners of cars to trade/sell for a newer model, as drivetrains already well outlast most first owners desire to keep them.
• jdhn 5y ago
  While I'm glad they mentioned the increasing price of cars, one thing that they didn't mention is the rise of electric cars. My car is 9 years old, and I'm looking for a replacement soon. However, I'm holding off for a few more years so that there's additional electric chargers implemented, and for more competition in the BEV space.
  • canada_dry 5y ago
    > holding off for a few more years so that there's additional electric Ditto. I'm in a condo and I suspect it'll be at another 5yrs before they support installing chargers. Right now: nope. Probably a good burgeoning opportunity here i.e. install the charging infrastructure in condo garages.
  • hnick 5y ago
    Yes my mechanic ask me recently and that was my response. In Australia lower end electrics are very expensive still compared to typical mass market cars. Hoping we can squeeze a few more years out of our 14 year old car and see a change.
• bongoman37 5y ago
  If you care about privacy at all, the older the car better it is.
  • speedgoose 5y ago
    True. You can however remove/disable/break the modem on a some cars. You lose some features such as starting the cabin heater from your smartphone but it increases your privacy.
  • crocodiletears 5y ago
    I'm restoring an oughties ranger for this exact reason. I'll start buying up other Rangers for parts when they hit the market at an affordable price, and I'll keep it running until the sun burns out, or the state decides to come for my death trap. After that, I'll probably become Amish or something.
• SN76477 5y ago
  Excellent news. All of society should focus on sustainability and not novelty.
• deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
• dkdk8283 5y ago
  For those of you who are looking to turn in a lease check the value on Carvana or similar. A friend of mine bought out his lease, sold the car, made 5k. Car prices have risen quite a bit in the last few years.
• chiefalchemist 5y ago
  I'd be curious to know how the increase in leasing influences this system. Does that encourage higher MSRP? Which feeds the perception of value? And ultimately now it's about the sales that happens post lease? Also, are ppl on average driving less? More delivery to home presumably means less errsnds to run? Less driving means a car lasts longer.
• decafninja 5y ago
  I recently had a nearly 20 year old car as my daily driver (I was original owner). Was very sad to have to let it go. However it was a car designed and built in the days when cars were still largely analog. No infotainment, no fancy technological wizardry governing the power delivery or handling. Nowadays many cars have gizmos and gadgets up the wazoo. Even if the base mechanical bits continue to work, wouldn't a lot of the fancy features become akin to Stone Age technology? That infotainment system that is awesome in 2021 isn't going to be so hot in 2026 let alone 2031.
  • helij 5y ago
    I never use in-car infotainment system. It's Car Play (or Android Auto?) all the way.
  • cillian64 5y ago
    If cars would just use standard DIN entertainment systems then upgrading that part every few years would be cheap and trivial. But I expect car manufacturers would rather people buy a new car when they want the new shiny infotainment.
    • decafninja 5y ago
      I think design plays a part too. They want something that looks well integrated into the interior design language.
• mixmastamyk 5y ago
  When I looked at getting a new car five years ago, I found they spy on you extensively. Nope, will never buy a new car again. Unless I can find one predominantly analog.
• COGlory 5y ago
  >Ford Motor Co. Chief Executive Jim Farley has said he wants the company to have an “always-on” connection to Ford’s customers and break the traditional model of selling a car and simply waiting a few years before the owner returns for an upgrade. We need to kill this before it ever manages to take hold.
  • shiftpgdn 5y ago
    My new Audi has a $600/year subscription for upgraded matrix LED headlights.
  • unethical_ban 5y ago
    I think he means establishing a "deeper customer relationship", not always-on in a tech sense.
• throwawaysea 5y ago
  This will be important when new gas cars are banned. But I also worry about the lack of repairability in modern cars, where there is so much that is electronic.
• AcerbicZero 5y ago
  I love older cars, and currently race an LS swapped RX8 - but my daily driver is almost always something new every ~4 years or so. I consider it part of my entertainment budget, and while I don’t love eating the depreciation I’ve done fairly well over the years picking cars which have held their value (generally due to their niche appeal).
• dogma1138 5y ago
  Well not really surprising, a late 2000’s car has pretty much all the comfort and the important safety features a modern car has. This wasn’t really the case with late 80’s and early 90’s cars in the late and mid 2000’s… Aircon, airbags, ABS, power steering and heck even decent multimedia features all became quite standard pretty darn fast. Other than the lack large LCD screens in the dashboard you can’t really tell if a car is from 2008 or 2018 even the shape is nearly the same because the same design language is used and we have optimized the form as much as possible from a fuel consumption perspective.
  • blakebreeder 5y ago
    I've ridden in a few new cars recently. Maybe I'm turning into a crotchety old man, but who needs massaging seats, engine start buttons, automatic trunk closing, temperature targeting AC, charging docks, or proximity based unlocking?
  • cillian64 5y ago
    Also my 2009 Yaris has a decent size touchscreen LCD with carplay in the dash thanks to it being a standard double-DIN head unit. Makes it even harder to justify replacing the car now that the entertainment system is basically the same as any new car.
• anon321321323 5y ago
  Don't know about other people, but my old vehicles are fine. I can maintain them. They have bluetooth, working heaters, aircon, all the controls work. Both do the top speed and have excellent acceleration for what they are. Plus, they both know they are vehicles - I will miss that feature. Frankly I'm waiting for EVs to become realistically available because right now they aren't practically priced. The range, eg of a tesla, is not an issue. I'm happy with the future idea of three vehicles. Right now I have a little hatchback and a old truck for trailers and knocking about with heavy equipment. I'd appreciate a daily commute thing that is fully electric. By that time, the hatchback will have likely failed.
• doggodaddo78 5y ago
  I bet TCOs are going up. New vehicles are now made with more plastic not designed to last much longer than the warranty. Americans are only keeping them longer because they're poorer, the cars are not as good as they were 25 years ago, and cannot afford new ones, so they're stuck spending money on repairs.
  • josephcsible 5y ago
    > Americans are only keeping them longer because [...] the cars are not as good as they were 25 years ago Do you place any value on crash safety? Because if so, then this is totally untrue.
• xyst 5y ago
  That’s good to hear. Hopefully this trend continues and we break the 20 year vehicle ownership age. There’s too much waste in this country and the amount of materials, energy, and water to manufacture a new vehicle is way too high. Maybe we will get to a point where vehicle lifespans can outlast a typical human as we transition to EVs which have less moving parts and lubricants than ICEs.
  • hellisothers 5y ago
    Is vehicle/part failure the main driver of replacement though? At least around here it seems more like a lot of people lease, especially among EV owners. As EV tech rolls out it seems like people don’t want the Old Thing anymore which may at least initially cause more turn over among EV cars?
• salex89 5y ago
  Not surprising. Compare a car from 1996 and 2008 and today. The 2008. one will have bells and whistles closer to one from today, while the 1996 will look much older comparing to 2008. Also the one from 2008 will have enough electronics and power supply integrated so it can be easily upgraded with a camera or additional sensors. Maybe not lane assist, but a nice infotainment for sure and a multifunction steering wheel just with a YouTube tutorial. Ride comfort is also comparable to 2021.
• egberts1 5y ago
  It’s simple economic. It’s too cost prohibitive to repair today’s vehicle than to repair a 12yo (or even a 20yo) car.
• gautamdivgi 5y ago
  I have been working from home for more than a decade now. Both my cars are around 11 years old with about 60k miles on them. They are still in amazing shape. I’m hoping they last for at least another 11 years. Cars are a money sink. They depreciate majorly in value really fast. There is no way I’m going to invest in a good/luxury car unless I have a very specific reason to do so.
• alkonaut 5y ago
  This is a good thing, as it means cars are more reliable or people are conscous of the environmental cost of consuming new cars. In places where cars have mandated regular checkups, it's also something that comes with zero risk to people running cars that have safety or environmental issues. This (If I understand correctly) is only the case in a few states in the US though.
• simonebrunozzi 5y ago
  Wait another 5-6 years, and everyone will want pure electric cars. ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) cars will drop in value faster than ever.
• walshemj 5y ago
  Its paywalled but you would think that the world wide covid epidemic might have an effect. Consumer behavior has been very different in the last 18 months. Not that I don't think quality improvements over he last two to three decades wont have an impact
• csours 5y ago
  Disclaimer: I work for GM, anything expressed here is solely my own opinion. "They don't make them like they used to!" - does anyone remember hearing this? I'm surprised that no one has commented that 12 year is the AVERAGE. The population likely follows a long tail distribution. I'd love to have access to the dataset. Some other implications: The market for some cars has eaten it's own tail, and this is likely to be a progressive phenomenon - Sedans and small cars are still on the road in large numbers even as manufacturers reduce production on these models. If a manufacturer cannot sell a new car at a high enough price point, it does not make sense to stay in that business. This drives up the average price for new cars, as the market for lower cost cars has moved to primarily used cars. Manufacturers make money on used cars in a few ways - repair parts and service is the biggest. I don't have access to privileged information about this, but I can only imagine that as EVs roll out Monthly Recurring Revenue will only become more important.
• irrational 5y ago
  We have a 17 and a 21 year old car. We kept up on maintenance continuously and they both still run terrific. Last time I took them both in I was told that neither had anything that needed to be done to them. I think we would have to get into a major accident before we would consider replacing one of them.
• wait_a_minute 5y ago
  Sounds like car tech is getting better and better
• 71a54xd 5y ago
  Good for them, nobody "needs" a new car until the old one breaks or is too unsafe compared to modern safety standards. For the exact same reason, nobody really "needs" a new iPhone every year. Although I support capitalism to a large degree, this "consumerist alarm" is patently hilarious. The PE firms reading this are probably scurrying to find new ways to "engineer" cars to fail sooner and jack up the price of maintenance and spare parts. I'll wait for the spare parts "shortage" analogous to the lumber "shortage" which in reality was caused by PE firms who own large swaths of harvestable forests just deciding to not log as quickly...
• geebee 5y ago
  I currently drive a 9 year old Toyota Corolla. I'm keeping the car because it's fine, no troubles, low mileage, inexpensive. The last new car I bought was about 6 years ago, and at the time, I felt (hoped) that this was the last conventional, gasoline fueled car I'd ever buy again (I tend to buy new cars with a reputation for value, take good care of them, and drive them for 15 years). But another reason I'm holding off on buying a new car is that I sense a huge shift in car technology coming up, and I don't want to buy in a transitional period. When I looked around a year ago, the electric range was 60-90 for used electric cars, as much as 250+ for recent (but expensive) models. Self driving and navigating features may also be on the way. It seems that range is expanding rapidly and new capabilities for self-navigation are closer to being mainstream, while prices are likely to drop substantially for better range. I guess I just don't want to buy a new DVD player just before they go obsolete. I kind of doubt my experience or motivation is the norm. But if it is so, this may a one time temporary delay as people are reluctant to buy during a one-time huge transition in the market (though alternatively, cars could become more like computers and cell phones, with such rapid technical progress that it becomes the norm to trade in or up frequently).
  • NotSammyHagar 5y ago
    Tesla heats and cools the battery pack so that it lasts longer, and they generally have much less range loss. Mine is 6.5 years old and range has declined from 265 to 260. I have 60,000 mi on it.
    • geebee 5y ago
      Yeah, Tesla has had a good range for a long time, though I'd consider Tesla to be an expensive option. Not saying overpriced, just expensive.
• penguin_booze 5y ago
  One reason to hold to old cars is that they aren't infested with software. Such cars are going to be a thing of the past, I think. John Deere tractors serve as a cautionary tale here.
• ChrisArchitect 5y ago
  good, less market for vehicles means less people selling them etc. Then we can sooner get on to the real business of banning them altogether. We are only going to get more distracted in them and they only cut into our online/connectability anyways, so a few generations from now will move on