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Lifting Self-Imposed Restrictions on the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship

227 points by octopoc 6y ago

deleted 6y ago
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ilaksh 6y ago
So I assume the "self-imposed" restrictions were related to what China wanted?
- _Microft 6y ago
  Yes, it says so at the end of the first paragraph.
bigpumpkin 6y ago
I'm curious why Pompeo is choosing to do this now, rather than a year ago. Only 11 days until the next administration, or is he still thinking about transitioning to a second Trump term?
- michannne 6y ago
  I don't see why this would be related. What is the difference if this was enacted in a Trump presidency vs a Biden presidency?
  - geofft 6y ago
    The Trump presidency is much more comfortable with antagonizing China than the Biden presidency. (To be clear, I don't mean this as a judgment of either strategy, just an answer to the question of why it matters.)
    - snowwrestler 6y ago
      If the Trump administration was comfortable with this change, they would have done it years ago. They are doing it on the way out the door to drop the fallout on the next administration.
- bpodgursky 6y ago
  My guess is that they were waiting until they were done negotiating trade + IP deals. Since the administration is outgoing and the new admin will likely take a new tact with regards to trade and labor, might as well throw this on the table and make the new administration have to roll back recognition of Taiwan if they don't like it.
  - riazrizvi 6y ago
    It’s possible that the outgoing President had personal financial negotiations that this decision was enmeshed with. Retribution perhaps? The timing is odd. Time will tell.
- deleted 6y ago
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- dwpdwpdwpdwpdwp 6y ago
  >>Pompeo on Twitter said he met with Blinken “to facilitate an orderly transition, and to ensure American interests are protected abroad.” It was unclear if the meeting, which comes less than two weeks before Biden’s inauguration, was in person or virtual. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-biden-pompeo/pompeo-meets-with-bidens-nominee-for-secretary-of-state-state-department-official-idUSKBN29D2S5 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-biden-pompeo/pompeo-m...
- csomar 6y ago
  I think it's just coincidence. From what I am reading/getting from the news, is that the new administration will be just as harsh with China (but probably with less drama about it).
  - adventured 6y ago
    > the new administration will be just as harsh with China (but probably with less drama about it) They will, they have no choice. The Biden Administration isn't in charge of the China policy, that's a US Government level comprehensive strategic shift that began well before Trump. The Pentagon overall is more powerful than the US Presidency, and all the agencies that matter are on board the China confrontation approach. There are strategic policies that persist regardless of administrations, for example that was the case when the US was dealing with the USSR, and it's going to be the case when dealing with China going forward. It doesn't matter who is elected President on this policy matter, the only thing that changes are the more subtle details (and some of the drama, as you noted).
    - eunos 6y ago
      >The Pentagon overall is more powerful than the US Presidency Seems the reason why Biden prefers General Austin over Flournoy. Biden needs a Def secretary that will represent Biden's interest in the Pentagon, not the other way around.
  - repsilat 6y ago
    Yeah, I think if this doesn't kick up much of a fuss the Biden administration will be glad it was done. I imagine they'll take more of a "don't rock the boat" approach, but this will leave things in a situation they're happier with.
  - tpmx 6y ago
    Japan appears to be concerned it won't. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-usa-taiwan-china-idUSKBN28Z0JR https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-usa-taiwan-china-id...
- dirtyid 6y ago
  Just Pompeo spiking options for next admin. Taiwan has about 5-10 years of strategic space left due to semiconductor dominance. Think Pompeo hopes to setup enough friction points for hotwar in the 10-15 years, when enough semi divests from Taiwan and before Chinese military fully modernizes. 15-30 years and China will be in a position to take over Taiwan with relatively little US containment options.
  - mensetmanusman 6y ago
    Hot war isn’t really an option with nukes. It’s all about trying to get your opponent to own-goal.
    - eloff 6y ago
      I'm not sure that's true in this case. China can't attack America because they'd be nuked into radioactive dust. But if they attacked Taiwan would the USA escalate to nukes? Especially given China is a nuclear power? I kind of doubt it. There's a limit to how much you stick your neck out for an ally.
    - labster 6y ago
      Hot war with nukes is always an option, just ask Gandhi. Seriously, MAD doesn’t work unless people really are nuts enough to destroy the world for ideals and friendship.
  - someperson 6y ago
    I used to believe it was only a matter of time until China is militarily able to take Taiwan. But it's not true: amphibious landings are notoriously difficult. Taiwan only has a few, easily defended beaches that can host an a landing. The rest of the coastline is jagged and rocky, and the Taiwan Strait hosts many typhoons and bad weather. For what it's worth, even the US would struggle to invade Taiwan militarily.
    - roenxi 6y ago
      That just means they shouldn't try an amphibious landing first up. They could set up a blockade then use a bunch of missiles, artillery and drones to shell Taiwan until they surrender. If it is Taiwan v. China, Taiwan will lose. The only hope they have is support from someone with a strong enough navy that China can't blockade them.
- nosmokewhereiam 6y ago
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TSMC https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TSMC
- pstrateman 6y ago
  It forces the Biden administration to either accept the normalization of relations with Taiwan as an independent nation or explicitly take steps to treat them as a piece of the CCP. He's boxing in the next administration.
  - IanDrake 6y ago
    I think we'll see more actions like this in the next few days. It's like when Obama set a date to allow transgenders serve in the military after he left office.
  - perennate 6y ago
    Or Biden can take no action and continue the status quo. I don't see how it boxes him in at all. The status quo would be fine if Xi Jinping weren't continuing to inflame tensions by setting a 2049 deadline for forcefully retaking Taiwan (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-46733174 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-46733174).
- dimal 6y ago
  The fallout with China is Biden’s problem. All gain, no pain.
- vkou 6y ago
  Because he doesn't actually give two figs about Taiwan [1], he just wants to piss in the cereal bowl of the next administration. This is not a decision driven by foreign policy - this is a decision driven by domestic political squabbles. It's similar to an administration running a deficit for four years, losing an election, and then having their party suddenly rediscover the virtues of fiscal responsibility and balanced budgets... Only to forget it the next time they take power. [1] As you pointed out, if he did, he would have made this decision years ago.
  - someperson 6y ago
    From Mike Pompeo's statements and interviews he seems to care about Taiwan. Like other conservative Republicans he has deeply-held religious beliefs and holds the view that democratic Taiwan should have relations normalized. But he isn't above partisanship. This relatively minor decision is now politically difficult to reverse, and the current administration won't have to deal with any diplomatic fallout. And the next administration doesn't need to burn political capital. All while incrementally pushing forward America's foreign policy objectives of formalizing Taiwan as the independent country its been for decades.
- fat_pikachu 6y ago
  Because the Biden administration won't do it if given the choice.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- Rapzid 6y ago
  This doesn't surprise me coming from Pompeo TBH.. I'm going to offer an alternative perspective than some; this would have happened sooner if Trump hadn't become star-struck by "President for Life" Ping. There were moves to align more closely with Taiwan early on, and Pompeo seems to have been pretty consistent on his position in regards to the CCP and certain matters; like Hong Kong and the Uyghurs..
  - repsilat 6y ago
    > star-struck by Trump sucks up to people when he thinks it might do him some good. He ignored Khashoggi's killing to keep a good relationship with MBS, he said he "fell in love" with Kim Jong-un to try to get him to stop testing nuclear missiles, and he shut up about Taiwan and Hong Kong and Xinjiang because he wanted a better trade deal. (Shutting up about them might have been an unofficial part of the dealmaking -- threats behind closed doors.) Some of it was clearly amateurish. Trump is a shallow man, and assumes others are as susceptible to flattery as he is. He didn't get far with Putin or Kim, but he actually didn't give away much -- US policy towards them is tougher now than it was four years ago. And the stuff with Saudi Arabia has worked out very well, though it does make my stomach turn a bit. Now, though, the Trump administration is in the "nothing to lose by doing what we want, and nothing to gain by doing things we'd rather not". So they can piss off Xi, and do something nice for Taiwan.
- eunos 6y ago
  Try to make Biden's admin life far more difficult. Pompeo has 2024 presidential dream.
  - the_resistence 6y ago
    Former SoS, Harvard Law School, top of West Point Grad, a deeply principled, extremely hard working man. We could and will be experiencing a lot worse the next 4 years.
    - IfOnlyYouKnew 6y ago
      Yes, deep principles such unwavering fealty to Mohammed Bin Salman, who had an American journalist cut into 42 pieces. Or deep principles like yours, glorifying academic credentials. Must have been terrible when the presidency went from the Harvard Law alumni and professor to the guy who wouldn’t release his transcripts from a second-rate business school.
    - eunos 6y ago
      And arguably the worst secretary of state. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/mike-pompeo-is-the-worst-secretary-of-state-in-history/2020/08/30/00515750-e869-11ea-bc79-834454439a44_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/mike...
- drak0n1c 6y ago
  Dozens of Hong Kong democracy activists were rounded up and imprisoned this week.
deleted 6y ago
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ilaksh 6y ago
My concern is that Taiwan is extraordinarily strategic and could be a linchpin. In the past, extreme economic situations have been "improved" by wars. Is there another, better plan? Does anyone on the Biden team or on planet earth have a plan for resolving the severe cultural and political divide between the US and China? Or is the divide not as great as it seems? What happens if they actually take Taiwan? Or try?
- rangibaby 6y ago
  > What happens if they actually take Taiwan? Or try? A serious military alliance of countries in that don’t want to be dominated by China (again) but have been happy to take Chinese money until now.
- dirtyid 6y ago
  There isn't, fact is US can contain China without Taiwan / first island chain for the foreseeable future. China can trivially take Taiwan anytime but not break through US containment until military modernization is complete. Taiwan semi advancements will only serve as security guarantor for so long. Realistically, China will take Taiwan as soon as she is able to mitigate US containment. And US needs war to contain China long term and Pompeo is setting up the conditions for one. Wait until his presidential run.
  - secfirstmd 6y ago
    China can trivially take Taiwan I'm not so sure about that. Yes they have overwhelming assets but assaults via sea are very very complex. No one has done it on a large scale against a powerful adversary on their home turf in 60+ years (I don't include the US into Kuwait or Basra etc). To do so against an advanced, well trained military (possibly with the US in the background/helping) would result in huge losses for China. The window to cross the straight is probably only three months or so of the year. No doubt they could try smash it from a distance, cut off supplies etc and force concessions but a full on invasion would be dam tricky. Cyber attacks and Spetsnaz style sabotage may also help, especially as Taiwan has had a lot of spy scandals. However the Taiwanese people I've had the pleasure of working with are clever, cunning and courageous - those guys might lose but they are gonna give you a bloody nose trying to get in. Plus then the insurgency that follows would make Iraq look like a school yard bun fight. They have had decades to think purely about how to defend their own soil and a huge amount of people with both military training and advanced technical skills - who knows what tricks they might have up their sleeve or in the basement (Yun Feng missile for example can reach most major Chinese cities and has a fairly small warhead yet they didn't order many of them...Hmmm I wonder why?...Possibly it's older nuke program which was very advanced or the very large "defensive" chemical and biological program etc.) Ultimately this is about the Communist Party looking for a balance. It doesn't want to lose face by losing Taiwan too much but at the same time but it would get a dam bloody nose trying to cross the straight...and then trying to occupy such a country. The end result likely to be a weakening of the party. Never forget Communists have shown themselves to be more concerned about the survival of the party than the people. Them taking a massive coin-toss strategic risk is unlikely, unless they feel pressured into doing it. There are lots of people saying China would definitely win, so here is an interesting counter example to that. https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/09/25/taiwan-can-win-a-war-with-china/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/09/25/taiwan-can-win-a-war-wi...
jonathannat 6y ago
This is a great reset of the US and Taiwan relationship that will allow new rules to get added by the State Department. Best case scenario is that the two democracies grow even closer together and Taiwan finally gets a US embassy or even a military base. Worst case scenario is Biden goes back to the old behavior of placating China. In any case, this is great timing, as China suffers from internal turmoils in Hong Kong, Beijing (leadership conflicts), Xinjiang and Tibet. And currently is engaging in a conflict with India, Australia, US, UK, Canada. Quad alliance (Japan, India, US, Australia) https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/25/what-is-the-quad-can-us-india-japan-and-australia-deter-china https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/25/what-is-the-quad-c... has been pretty active, and Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China (senior lawmakers in democracies) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-05/lawmakers-in-eight-countries-form-new-alliance-to-counter-china https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-05/lawmakers... have recently formed this year. Taiwan would be a great formal addition to these alliances, as it could act as a land carrier sitting off the coast of China. With its recent effort underway to build homegrown submarines by 2025, it could repel most of the sea threats from China for a long time https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2020/12/02/taiwan-is-building-eight-new-submarines-they-alone-could-destroy-a-chinese-invasion-fleet/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2020/12/02/taiwan-is-b....
- 737min 6y ago
  Good analysis
- johnhughes 6y ago
  Why is this downvoted. Is this site full of wumaos too? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/50_Cent_Party https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/50_Cent_Party
- deleted 6y ago
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- mattnewton 6y ago
  I’m with you until the last paragraph, which strikes me as fighting yesterday’s wars. “Hot” war with China, a major nuclear power, would be disastrous for the earth if it looked anything like controlling naval waters. I think they are far more important economically as a major technological partner than a military base.
info781 6y ago
Don't like Trump, but this is long overdue, China needs to move to Taiwan system of government, not the other way around and end this "Chinese Taipei" name nonsense.
throwitaway1235 6y ago
My first reply was flagged. My question, is it okay for user to say that they strategically support China more than Taiwan and would hope U.S policy eventually follow suit?
- someperson 6y ago
  You can say and think what you want. But there's no situation where the United States stops supporting democratic Taiwan. The US supported Taiwan under-the-table since the 1970s which was well before democratization back when they were yet another brutal authoritarian ally of the United States (eg, Saudi Arabia etc). Now Taiwan is a vibrant democracy with the rule-of-law, free speech and world-leading industries the United States will stay allied to Taiwan. As they say: "In international relations, there are no permanent friends or permanent enemies, only permanent interests".
- magicsmoke 6y ago
  It's certainly not illegal or violates site guidelines if you can put forward a reasonably argued position. I personally think a future where China annexes Taiwan would bring about a more stable and peaceful geopolitical relationship between China and the US because of three reasons. 1. The US is not threatened by China. The Pacific prevents any invasion of the America's, and China cannot blockade the US given its two coastlines and world class navy. 2. China is threatened by the US. It's ringed by US military bases and depends on oil shipping through the Indian Ocean. 3. China has no ideology of global expansion and conversion like the USSR, nor does it need more land and resources like the much smaller Nazi Germany or Imperial Japan. Taiwan (and frankly all of China's other disputes) are limited goals of a nationalist ideology from the 1940s and losing Taiwan won't trigger a dominoe effect of China annexing the rest of the world and threatening America or Europe. In a future where Taiwan was annexed and the US has pulled it's bases back to Guam or Hawaii, I can't see any future flash points between the two nations. Rather, a much healthier and respectful relationship between two powerhouses that mind their own affairs instead of sticking weapons and provocations in each other's faces. However, this line of reasoning requires accepting that the US should not act as a global defender of democracy worldwide regardless of cost or strategy, and that encouraging a democracy to spring up in the path of a unsettled conflict wasn't the wisest of choices. Still, minority positions tend to be unpopular unless reality proves them to be true.
torgian 6y ago
It’s about time.
__sy__ 6y ago
I've lived in Taiwan for a short period of time. I absolutely love it there and I encourage everyone here to go check it out. Furthermore, the Taiwanese people deserve the right to self-determination, and our support if they decide to go their own way. That being said, considering the enormously strategic role that Taiwan plays in electronics supply chains (e.g. TSMC, Wistron...etc), it's always been odd to me that the U.S. chooses to placate Beijing, at the risk of losing a reliable partner (Taiwan) in a strategic industry.
- beerandt 6y ago
  Carter's decision to recognize the mainland at the expense of Taiwan seems more and more like it's one of the most consequential unilateral decisions ever made (as in single person, not single nation). It's hard to know "what could have been," but what aspect of current life/ society/ the world wouldn't be significantly different today?
  - nabla9 6y ago
    Nixon deserves the praise and blame for China relations. Starting the process was really hard part. It was culmination of long process started by Nixon in 1972. Shanghai Communique pledged to work toward the full diplomatic relations. Ford and Carter followed trough the process. Taiwan really didn't matter during the Cold War. Relations with China was strategic move to help create distance between Soviet Union and China.
    - mc32 6y ago
      They both share the blame. One enabled it and the other one did it. It was probably Kissinger with rosy “divide and conquer” thinking given Moscow & Beijing had a fall out.
    - beerandt 6y ago
      I'm over here trying to have a fun, hypothetical mind-game with arbitrary & made-up rules, and you've got to go and ruin it with "it's complicated" realities. :-) But of course, you're correct. And Carter (and Nixon and Ford) obviously didn't have the foresight to realize the ultimate impact of the process/decision. Yet they would have been aware it was a major, influential policy decision. Does "starting the process" count as an ultimately-weighty-political-decision? Along the lines of "Deciding to drop the bomb on Hiroshima," if you want to count that as a decision by one person. Of course it was also just one node of a decision tree that was a long, complicated chain-of-events.
underseacables 6y ago
If you’ll pardon me... It’s about time..
- someperson 6y ago
  This is not the US "normalization" of relations with Taiwan. It's a bureaucratic shuffle within the US.
deleted 6y ago
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- deleted 6y ago
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secfirstmd 6y ago
This is good. Taiwan, like any place, has the right to self determination. Sigh, it's just such a pity the clown shoes shit show of US politics this week knocked the story of 55 democracy activists in Hong Kong being rounded up.
- throwitaway1235 6y ago
  You mean the state crackdown on normal Trump democracy activists at the capital? See, this as a Trump voter is why I'm so much more supportive of China than Hong Kong or Taiwan.
- bagacrap 6y ago
  Every place has the right to self determination, but secessionists tend to be treated as criminals. When the Southern states left the union, the world's oldest democracy went to war to prevent it. So it's a bit hypocritical of the US govt imo.
  - brobinson 6y ago
    Right, it's about time the secessionists who left the ROC in 1949 get treated appropriately.
  - perennate 6y ago
    > Every place has the right to self determination, but secessionists tend to be treated as criminals. The HK democracy activists are protesting in support of self determination. Those arrested are not "secessionists", and as far as I know, Hong Kong has not left the PRC, so your comparison doesn't really make any sense.
    - nsajko 6y ago
      I don't think Bagacrap was discussing Hong Kong at all, but anyway your argument doesn't make much sense, because if someone is "protesting in support of self determination", then they almost surely are really asking for secession.
Rapzid 6y ago
It's been time for a long time to stop pretending Taiwan is not a critical ally of the USA and that we would ever allow the CCP to absorb them. They deserve our recognition and support on the international stage.
- beerandt 6y ago
  I absolutely agree. The political reality of the current US/Taiwan relationship is so absurd. We sell fighter jets to a country we don't even officially recognize. That's not some CIA insurrection level slush fund. Which always reminds me that no matter what "inviable" international laws or standards the civilized world pretends to adhere to, that it's all a sham, and sovereign nations, especially the US, can find a way to legally justify whatever the hell it is they want to do.
  - Rapzid 6y ago
    And the "T" in TSMC is, of course, for "Taiwan". They aren't simply a geopolitical asset as an ally in the Indo Pacific strategy acting a buffer against CCP influence; they are a manufacturing partner supplying critical infrastructure that is likely considered of national security interest to the West.
- coryrc 6y ago
  We're only pretending. Saving face is critical when negotiating in the East. If we can let the mainland save face and it costs us little of importance, why act otherwise? Also, Taiwan itself is not unified. Around a third want to unify with the CCP.
  - Jasonnor 6y ago
    > Around a third want to unify with the CCP. I am from Taiwan. Where does the data for your sentence come from? As far as I know, the proportion of people who want to be unified with CCP is only 2.4%. Reference: https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7804&id=6960 https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7804&id=6960
eternalban 6y ago
What is the Secret Agreement between the United States and China on Taiwan? https://allthingsnuclear.org/gkulacki/what-is-the-secret-agreement-between-the-us-and-china-on-taiwan https://allthingsnuclear.org/gkulacki/what-is-the-secret-agr... Nixon's Trip to China, The National Security Archive, Declassified, 2003: https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/NSAEBB106/ https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/NSAEBB106/ Record of Historic Richard Nixon-Zhou Enlai Talks in February 1972 Now Declassified, ~. [See listed documents linked individually, for ex: https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/nsa/publications/DOC_readers/kissinger/nixzhou/11-01.htm https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/nsa/publications/DOC_readers/kiss...] https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/nsa/publications/DOC_readers/kissinger/nixzhou/ https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/nsa/publications/DOC_readers/kiss... The One China Policy: What Would Nixon Do? (2017) https://thediplomat.com/2017/01/the-one-china-policy-what-would-nixon-do/ https://thediplomat.com/2017/01/the-one-china-policy-what-wo... Asia After Viet Nam, Richard Nixon, 1967 (pdf) https://cdn.nixonlibrary.org/01/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/11113807/Asia-After-Viet-Nam.pdf https://cdn.nixonlibrary.org/01/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/1...
nabla9 6y ago
This will get angry response from China, but that's about it. No change in big issues: 1) US does not formally recognize Taiwan (doing so means ending diplomatic relations with China). 2) US is not altering the Taiwan relations act. No alliance, no binding security guarantees, strategic ambiguity continues. 3) Taiwan is not declaring independence.
- safog 6y ago
  Do angry responses mean anything? It's always been the other way round - China does something messed up and the world leaders would give out angry speeches and life would go on without much change. Let them have a dose of their own medicine for a bit.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
  - insert_coin 6y ago
    > Do angry responses mean anything? They don't mean anything on their own. But geopolitics is a game played in the background, calling in favors from other countries, telling them to buy less from your enemy and more from you or your allies, offering them loans, or straight up bribery. And if that country has also been treated with disdain by the superpower it's not so hard to see them accepting.
- baby 6y ago
  Isn’t 3) already done? I thought this link implied 1 & 2, if not this is disappointing :(
  - nabla9 6y ago
    Taiwan has not formally declared independence. Taiwan prefers to stay de facto independent for now, because declaring independence would mean war with China instantly.
  - CogitoCogito 6y ago
    The current ROC (i.e. Taiwan) government's position is that they don't need to declare independence from the PRC given they've never been part of it (this is factually true by the way).
United857 6y ago
> The executive branch‘s relations with Taiwan are to be handled by the non-profit AIT, as stipulated in the Taiwan Relations Act. How is this different than the status quo? AIT has always been the de-facto US representation in Taiwan up to now.
- CogitoCogito 6y ago
  Seems like it just means that there aren't really restrictions on which government officials can go to Taiwan anymore. Of course they would still need at actively choose to do so. So if Biden just ignored this it would be mostly symbolic (which isn't nothing, but isn't necessarily a hell of a lot either). We'll just have to see what Biden does.
doomleika 6y ago
That's whole lots of nothing by a soon-to-be replaced Secretary of the State. Everything is still the same, the One China Policy[1] hasn't changed: There's only One China and Taiwan belongs to China. Everything still going through non-official channel which is AIT. Nothing has changed. Source: I live in Taiwan. -- [1]: https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-taiwan/ https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-taiwan/
- CogitoCogito 6y ago
  You misunderstand the US One China Policy. From the link you posted: "...the United States recognized the Government of the People’s Republic of China as the sole legal government of China, acknowledging the Chinese position that there is but one China and Taiwan is part of China." The US _acknowledges_ the Chinese position, but it does not _recognize_ it. So the US official policy is explicitly _not_ "There's only One China and Taiwan belongs to China".
  - doomleika 6y ago
    Thanks for the correction, however > The United States does not support Taiwan independence. That speaks volumes on US' instance. I lived long enough to see that Taiwan is mere a pawn to attack China. If dropping a nuclear bomb on Taiwan could set back China, US will do it in a heartbeat. This is how the world politics works. Always have been.
    - CogitoCogito 6y ago
      Well the US also doesn't support Chinese intervention in Taiwanese affairs and treats Taiwan as a country in all but name which also speaks volumes. The US clearly considers Taiwan as independent and has been okay pretending otherwise as long as it's been politically convenient and China doesn't take any action to end that independence.
      - doomleika 6y ago
        Well if US doesn't want China to intervene US could just let Taiwan have their nuclear weapon in the 80s, which will completely remove Military option from China, but US didn't.[1] -- [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chang_Hsien-yi https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chang_Hsien-yi
baby 6y ago
Is this the first good news of 2021? This is huge! Is google maps going to have Taiwan displayed as a country again now?
arcticbull 6y ago
Well I can’t say I’m mad about this. It’s not a clear unilateral win however as this is likely to make the PRC much more defensive and irritated about the ROC than it already was, and I’m not sure that America has the naval presence in the South China Sea to create a real deterrent to mainland aggression. Hard to say this is bad; hard to say this is good either. It’s different. Ball will be in the Biden administration court. At least it was spiked before hand.
the_resistence 6y ago
Congratulations and all the best!
bsimpson 6y ago
I didn't have "Taiwan" on my list of outgoing presidential pardons. Glad to see us moving towards normalization, but weird to wait until the last week of the administration to play that card.
- joshuagross 6y ago
  The cynical read for “why wait until the last week” is to make China/US relations even more difficult for Biden. The Trump admin doesn’t have to deal with fallout.
_cs2017_ 6y ago
No American administration ever thought "let's placate Beijing because we are too scared of them getting angry". Every time the decision to compromise with Beijing was made based on a certain trade-off. This is no different today. The US military and civilian experts believe that if Taiwan declares independence, Beijing will use its military to take control of Taiwan, regardless of the US involvement. US presidents do not want several million people to die for the cause of Taiwan independence. Of course, most presidents do not care much about Chinese or Taiwanese deaths, but they do care that this will hurt the US economy and business interests; and depending on how things play out, thousands of Americans may also die, which is bad for reelection. In other words, the US administrations do not want Taiwan to declare independence. They do, however, like to use Taiwan as a pawn in their games with China, just like they would use an aircraft carrier near the Chinese coast. They also like to use Taiwan as a pawn in the internal US political wars, for example by creating difficulties for the opposite party before that party takes over the White House.
- 99_00 6y ago
  >The US military and civilian experts believe that if Taiwan declares independence, Beijing will use its military to take control of Taiwan Taiwan considers its self to be China. What are they going to declare themselves independent from?
  - toast0 6y ago
    Rather than declaring independence, Taiwan could grant independence to mainland China.
    - perennate 6y ago
      Currently PRC pressures Taiwan to maintain the status quo, which is that both the PRC and ROC are different factions of the same country. While Taiwan ending official "claims" to the mainland might be seen by the PRC as slightly less bold than declaring independence, the PRC would likely implement the same damaging economic sanctions and increased military threats, so in this case Taiwan might as well declare independence.
snowwrestler 6y ago
The purpose here is to set a fire that the Biden administration has to deal with. That’s why it’s getting done on the way out the door and not when the President took office 4 years ago, or Pompeo was confirmed 2.5 years ago. It’s not likely to work; line staff will ignore this and wait to see what Blinken says. But now Republicans can try to portray a policy consistency as kowtowing to China.
- akamaka 6y ago
  Or perhaps it’s a response to the purge of pro-democracy politicians in Hong Kong this week?
fmajid 6y ago
Taiwan is the center of the world semiconductor industry and far more critical to the US than Saudi Arabia. It would also be exceedingly difficult to defend from China. There is no point in provoking China into a war we would lose (because China’s military budget has been focused on preventing that for the last 6 decades, whereas ours is scattered across too many objectives) until we have a plan that can succeed.
- perennate 6y ago
  There is no point in provoking China into a war because it would lead to a nuclear war which would end humanity as we know it. Everyone would lose in any all-on war between two nuclear powers. China has been far more provoking than the US, with Xi Jinping continuing to maintain a 2049 deadline for taking back Taiwan, with force if needed, not to mention cracking down on the pro-democracy party in Hong Kong, which has only inflamed tensions with Taiwan and really won Tsai Ing-wen her second term.
  - fmajid 6y ago
    That's my point, a threat of the US escalating to nuclear war to defend Taiwan is not credible. Therefore there must be conventional means of ensuring a conventional attack on Taiwan cannot succeed.
Flenser 6y ago
This is a poisoned pill for Biden. If he goes along with it, it will sevearly harm relations with China; if he walks it back he looks weak on China.

227 points by octopoc 6y ago

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ilaksh 6y ago

So I assume the "self-imposed" restrictions were related to what China wanted?

_Microft 6y ago
Yes, it says so at the end of the first paragraph.

bigpumpkin 6y ago

I'm curious why Pompeo is choosing to do this now, rather than a year ago. Only 11 days until the next administration, or is he still thinking about transitioning to a second Trump term?

michannne 6y ago
I don't see why this would be related. What is the difference if this was enacted in a Trump presidency vs a Biden presidency?
- geofft 6y ago
  The Trump presidency is much more comfortable with antagonizing China than the Biden presidency. (To be clear, I don't mean this as a judgment of either strategy, just an answer to the question of why it matters.)
  - snowwrestler 6y ago
    If the Trump administration was comfortable with this change, they would have done it years ago. They are doing it on the way out the door to drop the fallout on the next administration.
bpodgursky 6y ago
My guess is that they were waiting until they were done negotiating trade + IP deals. Since the administration is outgoing and the new admin will likely take a new tact with regards to trade and labor, might as well throw this on the table and make the new administration have to roll back recognition of Taiwan if they don't like it.
- riazrizvi 6y ago
  It’s possible that the outgoing President had personal financial negotiations that this decision was enmeshed with. Retribution perhaps? The timing is odd. Time will tell.
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dwpdwpdwpdwpdwp 6y ago
>>Pompeo on Twitter said he met with Blinken “to facilitate an orderly transition, and to ensure American interests are protected abroad.” It was unclear if the meeting, which comes less than two weeks before Biden’s inauguration, was in person or virtual. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-biden-pompeo/pompeo-meets-with-bidens-nominee-for-secretary-of-state-state-department-official-idUSKBN29D2S5 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-biden-pompeo/pompeo-m...
csomar 6y ago
I think it's just coincidence. From what I am reading/getting from the news, is that the new administration will be just as harsh with China (but probably with less drama about it).
- adventured 6y ago
  > the new administration will be just as harsh with China (but probably with less drama about it) They will, they have no choice. The Biden Administration isn't in charge of the China policy, that's a US Government level comprehensive strategic shift that began well before Trump. The Pentagon overall is more powerful than the US Presidency, and all the agencies that matter are on board the China confrontation approach. There are strategic policies that persist regardless of administrations, for example that was the case when the US was dealing with the USSR, and it's going to be the case when dealing with China going forward. It doesn't matter who is elected President on this policy matter, the only thing that changes are the more subtle details (and some of the drama, as you noted).
  - eunos 6y ago
    >The Pentagon overall is more powerful than the US Presidency Seems the reason why Biden prefers General Austin over Flournoy. Biden needs a Def secretary that will represent Biden's interest in the Pentagon, not the other way around.
- repsilat 6y ago
  Yeah, I think if this doesn't kick up much of a fuss the Biden administration will be glad it was done. I imagine they'll take more of a "don't rock the boat" approach, but this will leave things in a situation they're happier with.
- tpmx 6y ago
  Japan appears to be concerned it won't. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-usa-taiwan-china-idUSKBN28Z0JR https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-usa-taiwan-china-id...
dirtyid 6y ago
Just Pompeo spiking options for next admin. Taiwan has about 5-10 years of strategic space left due to semiconductor dominance. Think Pompeo hopes to setup enough friction points for hotwar in the 10-15 years, when enough semi divests from Taiwan and before Chinese military fully modernizes. 15-30 years and China will be in a position to take over Taiwan with relatively little US containment options.
- mensetmanusman 6y ago
  Hot war isn’t really an option with nukes. It’s all about trying to get your opponent to own-goal.
  - eloff 6y ago
    I'm not sure that's true in this case. China can't attack America because they'd be nuked into radioactive dust. But if they attacked Taiwan would the USA escalate to nukes? Especially given China is a nuclear power? I kind of doubt it. There's a limit to how much you stick your neck out for an ally.
  - labster 6y ago
    Hot war with nukes is always an option, just ask Gandhi. Seriously, MAD doesn’t work unless people really are nuts enough to destroy the world for ideals and friendship.
- someperson 6y ago
  I used to believe it was only a matter of time until China is militarily able to take Taiwan. But it's not true: amphibious landings are notoriously difficult. Taiwan only has a few, easily defended beaches that can host an a landing. The rest of the coastline is jagged and rocky, and the Taiwan Strait hosts many typhoons and bad weather. For what it's worth, even the US would struggle to invade Taiwan militarily.
  - roenxi 6y ago
    That just means they shouldn't try an amphibious landing first up. They could set up a blockade then use a bunch of missiles, artillery and drones to shell Taiwan until they surrender. If it is Taiwan v. China, Taiwan will lose. The only hope they have is support from someone with a strong enough navy that China can't blockade them.
nosmokewhereiam 6y ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TSMC https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TSMC
pstrateman 6y ago
It forces the Biden administration to either accept the normalization of relations with Taiwan as an independent nation or explicitly take steps to treat them as a piece of the CCP. He's boxing in the next administration.
- IanDrake 6y ago
  I think we'll see more actions like this in the next few days. It's like when Obama set a date to allow transgenders serve in the military after he left office.
- perennate 6y ago
  Or Biden can take no action and continue the status quo. I don't see how it boxes him in at all. The status quo would be fine if Xi Jinping weren't continuing to inflame tensions by setting a 2049 deadline for forcefully retaking Taiwan (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-46733174 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-46733174).
dimal 6y ago
The fallout with China is Biden’s problem. All gain, no pain.
vkou 6y ago
Because he doesn't actually give two figs about Taiwan [1], he just wants to piss in the cereal bowl of the next administration. This is not a decision driven by foreign policy - this is a decision driven by domestic political squabbles. It's similar to an administration running a deficit for four years, losing an election, and then having their party suddenly rediscover the virtues of fiscal responsibility and balanced budgets... Only to forget it the next time they take power. [1] As you pointed out, if he did, he would have made this decision years ago.
- someperson 6y ago
  From Mike Pompeo's statements and interviews he seems to care about Taiwan. Like other conservative Republicans he has deeply-held religious beliefs and holds the view that democratic Taiwan should have relations normalized. But he isn't above partisanship. This relatively minor decision is now politically difficult to reverse, and the current administration won't have to deal with any diplomatic fallout. And the next administration doesn't need to burn political capital. All while incrementally pushing forward America's foreign policy objectives of formalizing Taiwan as the independent country its been for decades.
fat_pikachu 6y ago
Because the Biden administration won't do it if given the choice.
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Rapzid 6y ago
This doesn't surprise me coming from Pompeo TBH.. I'm going to offer an alternative perspective than some; this would have happened sooner if Trump hadn't become star-struck by "President for Life" Ping. There were moves to align more closely with Taiwan early on, and Pompeo seems to have been pretty consistent on his position in regards to the CCP and certain matters; like Hong Kong and the Uyghurs..
- repsilat 6y ago
  > star-struck by Trump sucks up to people when he thinks it might do him some good. He ignored Khashoggi's killing to keep a good relationship with MBS, he said he "fell in love" with Kim Jong-un to try to get him to stop testing nuclear missiles, and he shut up about Taiwan and Hong Kong and Xinjiang because he wanted a better trade deal. (Shutting up about them might have been an unofficial part of the dealmaking -- threats behind closed doors.) Some of it was clearly amateurish. Trump is a shallow man, and assumes others are as susceptible to flattery as he is. He didn't get far with Putin or Kim, but he actually didn't give away much -- US policy towards them is tougher now than it was four years ago. And the stuff with Saudi Arabia has worked out very well, though it does make my stomach turn a bit. Now, though, the Trump administration is in the "nothing to lose by doing what we want, and nothing to gain by doing things we'd rather not". So they can piss off Xi, and do something nice for Taiwan.
eunos 6y ago
Try to make Biden's admin life far more difficult. Pompeo has 2024 presidential dream.
- the_resistence 6y ago
  Former SoS, Harvard Law School, top of West Point Grad, a deeply principled, extremely hard working man. We could and will be experiencing a lot worse the next 4 years.
  - IfOnlyYouKnew 6y ago
    Yes, deep principles such unwavering fealty to Mohammed Bin Salman, who had an American journalist cut into 42 pieces. Or deep principles like yours, glorifying academic credentials. Must have been terrible when the presidency went from the Harvard Law alumni and professor to the guy who wouldn’t release his transcripts from a second-rate business school.
  - eunos 6y ago
    And arguably the worst secretary of state. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/mike-pompeo-is-the-worst-secretary-of-state-in-history/2020/08/30/00515750-e869-11ea-bc79-834454439a44_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/mike...
drak0n1c 6y ago
Dozens of Hong Kong democracy activists were rounded up and imprisoned this week.

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ilaksh 6y ago

My concern is that Taiwan is extraordinarily strategic and could be a linchpin. In the past, extreme economic situations have been "improved" by wars. Is there another, better plan? Does anyone on the Biden team or on planet earth have a plan for resolving the severe cultural and political divide between the US and China? Or is the divide not as great as it seems? What happens if they actually take Taiwan? Or try?

rangibaby 6y ago
> What happens if they actually take Taiwan? Or try? A serious military alliance of countries in that don’t want to be dominated by China (again) but have been happy to take Chinese money until now.
dirtyid 6y ago
There isn't, fact is US can contain China without Taiwan / first island chain for the foreseeable future. China can trivially take Taiwan anytime but not break through US containment until military modernization is complete. Taiwan semi advancements will only serve as security guarantor for so long. Realistically, China will take Taiwan as soon as she is able to mitigate US containment. And US needs war to contain China long term and Pompeo is setting up the conditions for one. Wait until his presidential run.
- secfirstmd 6y ago
  China can trivially take Taiwan I'm not so sure about that. Yes they have overwhelming assets but assaults via sea are very very complex. No one has done it on a large scale against a powerful adversary on their home turf in 60+ years (I don't include the US into Kuwait or Basra etc). To do so against an advanced, well trained military (possibly with the US in the background/helping) would result in huge losses for China. The window to cross the straight is probably only three months or so of the year. No doubt they could try smash it from a distance, cut off supplies etc and force concessions but a full on invasion would be dam tricky. Cyber attacks and Spetsnaz style sabotage may also help, especially as Taiwan has had a lot of spy scandals. However the Taiwanese people I've had the pleasure of working with are clever, cunning and courageous - those guys might lose but they are gonna give you a bloody nose trying to get in. Plus then the insurgency that follows would make Iraq look like a school yard bun fight. They have had decades to think purely about how to defend their own soil and a huge amount of people with both military training and advanced technical skills - who knows what tricks they might have up their sleeve or in the basement (Yun Feng missile for example can reach most major Chinese cities and has a fairly small warhead yet they didn't order many of them...Hmmm I wonder why?...Possibly it's older nuke program which was very advanced or the very large "defensive" chemical and biological program etc.) Ultimately this is about the Communist Party looking for a balance. It doesn't want to lose face by losing Taiwan too much but at the same time but it would get a dam bloody nose trying to cross the straight...and then trying to occupy such a country. The end result likely to be a weakening of the party. Never forget Communists have shown themselves to be more concerned about the survival of the party than the people. Them taking a massive coin-toss strategic risk is unlikely, unless they feel pressured into doing it. There are lots of people saying China would definitely win, so here is an interesting counter example to that. https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/09/25/taiwan-can-win-a-war-with-china/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/09/25/taiwan-can-win-a-war-wi...

jonathannat 6y ago

This is a great reset of the US and Taiwan relationship that will allow new rules to get added by the State Department. Best case scenario is that the two democracies grow even closer together and Taiwan finally gets a US embassy or even a military base. Worst case scenario is Biden goes back to the old behavior of placating China. In any case, this is great timing, as China suffers from internal turmoils in Hong Kong, Beijing (leadership conflicts), Xinjiang and Tibet. And currently is engaging in a conflict with India, Australia, US, UK, Canada. Quad alliance (Japan, India, US, Australia) https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/25/what-is-the-quad-can-us-india-japan-and-australia-deter-china https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/25/what-is-the-quad-c... has been pretty active, and Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China (senior lawmakers in democracies) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-05/lawmakers-in-eight-countries-form-new-alliance-to-counter-china https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-05/lawmakers... have recently formed this year. Taiwan would be a great formal addition to these alliances, as it could act as a land carrier sitting off the coast of China. With its recent effort underway to build homegrown submarines by 2025, it could repel most of the sea threats from China for a long time https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2020/12/02/taiwan-is-building-eight-new-submarines-they-alone-could-destroy-a-chinese-invasion-fleet/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2020/12/02/taiwan-is-b....

737min 6y ago
Good analysis
johnhughes 6y ago
Why is this downvoted. Is this site full of wumaos too? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/50_Cent_Party https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/50_Cent_Party
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mattnewton 6y ago
I’m with you until the last paragraph, which strikes me as fighting yesterday’s wars. “Hot” war with China, a major nuclear power, would be disastrous for the earth if it looked anything like controlling naval waters. I think they are far more important economically as a major technological partner than a military base.

info781 6y ago

Don't like Trump, but this is long overdue, China needs to move to Taiwan system of government, not the other way around and end this "Chinese Taipei" name nonsense.

throwitaway1235 6y ago

My first reply was flagged. My question, is it okay for user to say that they strategically support China more than Taiwan and would hope U.S policy eventually follow suit?

someperson 6y ago
You can say and think what you want. But there's no situation where the United States stops supporting democratic Taiwan. The US supported Taiwan under-the-table since the 1970s which was well before democratization back when they were yet another brutal authoritarian ally of the United States (eg, Saudi Arabia etc). Now Taiwan is a vibrant democracy with the rule-of-law, free speech and world-leading industries the United States will stay allied to Taiwan. As they say: "In international relations, there are no permanent friends or permanent enemies, only permanent interests".
magicsmoke 6y ago
It's certainly not illegal or violates site guidelines if you can put forward a reasonably argued position. I personally think a future where China annexes Taiwan would bring about a more stable and peaceful geopolitical relationship between China and the US because of three reasons. 1. The US is not threatened by China. The Pacific prevents any invasion of the America's, and China cannot blockade the US given its two coastlines and world class navy. 2. China is threatened by the US. It's ringed by US military bases and depends on oil shipping through the Indian Ocean. 3. China has no ideology of global expansion and conversion like the USSR, nor does it need more land and resources like the much smaller Nazi Germany or Imperial Japan. Taiwan (and frankly all of China's other disputes) are limited goals of a nationalist ideology from the 1940s and losing Taiwan won't trigger a dominoe effect of China annexing the rest of the world and threatening America or Europe. In a future where Taiwan was annexed and the US has pulled it's bases back to Guam or Hawaii, I can't see any future flash points between the two nations. Rather, a much healthier and respectful relationship between two powerhouses that mind their own affairs instead of sticking weapons and provocations in each other's faces. However, this line of reasoning requires accepting that the US should not act as a global defender of democracy worldwide regardless of cost or strategy, and that encouraging a democracy to spring up in the path of a unsettled conflict wasn't the wisest of choices. Still, minority positions tend to be unpopular unless reality proves them to be true.

torgian 6y ago

It’s about time.

__sy__ 6y ago

I've lived in Taiwan for a short period of time. I absolutely love it there and I encourage everyone here to go check it out. Furthermore, the Taiwanese people deserve the right to self-determination, and our support if they decide to go their own way. That being said, considering the enormously strategic role that Taiwan plays in electronics supply chains (e.g. TSMC, Wistron...etc), it's always been odd to me that the U.S. chooses to placate Beijing, at the risk of losing a reliable partner (Taiwan) in a strategic industry.

beerandt 6y ago
Carter's decision to recognize the mainland at the expense of Taiwan seems more and more like it's one of the most consequential unilateral decisions ever made (as in single person, not single nation). It's hard to know "what could have been," but what aspect of current life/ society/ the world wouldn't be significantly different today?
- nabla9 6y ago
  Nixon deserves the praise and blame for China relations. Starting the process was really hard part. It was culmination of long process started by Nixon in 1972. Shanghai Communique pledged to work toward the full diplomatic relations. Ford and Carter followed trough the process. Taiwan really didn't matter during the Cold War. Relations with China was strategic move to help create distance between Soviet Union and China.
  - mc32 6y ago
    They both share the blame. One enabled it and the other one did it. It was probably Kissinger with rosy “divide and conquer” thinking given Moscow & Beijing had a fall out.
  - beerandt 6y ago
    I'm over here trying to have a fun, hypothetical mind-game with arbitrary & made-up rules, and you've got to go and ruin it with "it's complicated" realities. :-) But of course, you're correct. And Carter (and Nixon and Ford) obviously didn't have the foresight to realize the ultimate impact of the process/decision. Yet they would have been aware it was a major, influential policy decision. Does "starting the process" count as an ultimately-weighty-political-decision? Along the lines of "Deciding to drop the bomb on Hiroshima," if you want to count that as a decision by one person. Of course it was also just one node of a decision tree that was a long, complicated chain-of-events.

underseacables 6y ago

If you’ll pardon me... It’s about time..

someperson 6y ago
This is not the US "normalization" of relations with Taiwan. It's a bureaucratic shuffle within the US.

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secfirstmd 6y ago

This is good. Taiwan, like any place, has the right to self determination. Sigh, it's just such a pity the clown shoes shit show of US politics this week knocked the story of 55 democracy activists in Hong Kong being rounded up.

throwitaway1235 6y ago
You mean the state crackdown on normal Trump democracy activists at the capital? See, this as a Trump voter is why I'm so much more supportive of China than Hong Kong or Taiwan.
bagacrap 6y ago
Every place has the right to self determination, but secessionists tend to be treated as criminals. When the Southern states left the union, the world's oldest democracy went to war to prevent it. So it's a bit hypocritical of the US govt imo.
- brobinson 6y ago
  Right, it's about time the secessionists who left the ROC in 1949 get treated appropriately.
- perennate 6y ago
  > Every place has the right to self determination, but secessionists tend to be treated as criminals. The HK democracy activists are protesting in support of self determination. Those arrested are not "secessionists", and as far as I know, Hong Kong has not left the PRC, so your comparison doesn't really make any sense.
  - nsajko 6y ago
    I don't think Bagacrap was discussing Hong Kong at all, but anyway your argument doesn't make much sense, because if someone is "protesting in support of self determination", then they almost surely are really asking for secession.

Rapzid 6y ago

It's been time for a long time to stop pretending Taiwan is not a critical ally of the USA and that we would ever allow the CCP to absorb them. They deserve our recognition and support on the international stage.

beerandt 6y ago
I absolutely agree. The political reality of the current US/Taiwan relationship is so absurd. We sell fighter jets to a country we don't even officially recognize. That's not some CIA insurrection level slush fund. Which always reminds me that no matter what "inviable" international laws or standards the civilized world pretends to adhere to, that it's all a sham, and sovereign nations, especially the US, can find a way to legally justify whatever the hell it is they want to do.
- Rapzid 6y ago
  And the "T" in TSMC is, of course, for "Taiwan". They aren't simply a geopolitical asset as an ally in the Indo Pacific strategy acting a buffer against CCP influence; they are a manufacturing partner supplying critical infrastructure that is likely considered of national security interest to the West.
coryrc 6y ago
We're only pretending. Saving face is critical when negotiating in the East. If we can let the mainland save face and it costs us little of importance, why act otherwise? Also, Taiwan itself is not unified. Around a third want to unify with the CCP.
- Jasonnor 6y ago
  > Around a third want to unify with the CCP. I am from Taiwan. Where does the data for your sentence come from? As far as I know, the proportion of people who want to be unified with CCP is only 2.4%. Reference: https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7804&id=6960 https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7804&id=6960

eternalban 6y ago

What is the Secret Agreement between the United States and China on Taiwan? https://allthingsnuclear.org/gkulacki/what-is-the-secret-agreement-between-the-us-and-china-on-taiwan https://allthingsnuclear.org/gkulacki/what-is-the-secret-agr... Nixon's Trip to China, The National Security Archive, Declassified, 2003: https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/NSAEBB106/ https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/NSAEBB106/ Record of Historic Richard Nixon-Zhou Enlai Talks in February 1972 Now Declassified, ~. [See listed documents linked individually, for ex: https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/nsa/publications/DOC_readers/kissinger/nixzhou/11-01.htm https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/nsa/publications/DOC_readers/kiss...] https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/nsa/publications/DOC_readers/kissinger/nixzhou/ https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/nsa/publications/DOC_readers/kiss... The One China Policy: What Would Nixon Do? (2017) https://thediplomat.com/2017/01/the-one-china-policy-what-would-nixon-do/ https://thediplomat.com/2017/01/the-one-china-policy-what-wo... Asia After Viet Nam, Richard Nixon, 1967 (pdf) https://cdn.nixonlibrary.org/01/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/11113807/Asia-After-Viet-Nam.pdf https://cdn.nixonlibrary.org/01/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/1...

nabla9 6y ago

This will get angry response from China, but that's about it. No change in big issues: 1) US does not formally recognize Taiwan (doing so means ending diplomatic relations with China). 2) US is not altering the Taiwan relations act. No alliance, no binding security guarantees, strategic ambiguity continues. 3) Taiwan is not declaring independence.

safog 6y ago
Do angry responses mean anything? It's always been the other way round - China does something messed up and the world leaders would give out angry speeches and life would go on without much change. Let them have a dose of their own medicine for a bit.
- deleted 6y ago
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- insert_coin 6y ago
  > Do angry responses mean anything? They don't mean anything on their own. But geopolitics is a game played in the background, calling in favors from other countries, telling them to buy less from your enemy and more from you or your allies, offering them loans, or straight up bribery. And if that country has also been treated with disdain by the superpower it's not so hard to see them accepting.
baby 6y ago
Isn’t 3) already done? I thought this link implied 1 & 2, if not this is disappointing :(
- nabla9 6y ago
  Taiwan has not formally declared independence. Taiwan prefers to stay de facto independent for now, because declaring independence would mean war with China instantly.
- CogitoCogito 6y ago
  The current ROC (i.e. Taiwan) government's position is that they don't need to declare independence from the PRC given they've never been part of it (this is factually true by the way).

United857 6y ago

> The executive branch‘s relations with Taiwan are to be handled by the non-profit AIT, as stipulated in the Taiwan Relations Act. How is this different than the status quo? AIT has always been the de-facto US representation in Taiwan up to now.

CogitoCogito 6y ago
Seems like it just means that there aren't really restrictions on which government officials can go to Taiwan anymore. Of course they would still need at actively choose to do so. So if Biden just ignored this it would be mostly symbolic (which isn't nothing, but isn't necessarily a hell of a lot either). We'll just have to see what Biden does.

doomleika 6y ago

That's whole lots of nothing by a soon-to-be replaced Secretary of the State. Everything is still the same, the One China Policy[1] hasn't changed: There's only One China and Taiwan belongs to China. Everything still going through non-official channel which is AIT. Nothing has changed. Source: I live in Taiwan. -- [1]: https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-taiwan/ https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-taiwan/

CogitoCogito 6y ago
You misunderstand the US One China Policy. From the link you posted: "...the United States recognized the Government of the People’s Republic of China as the sole legal government of China, acknowledging the Chinese position that there is but one China and Taiwan is part of China." The US _acknowledges_ the Chinese position, but it does not _recognize_ it. So the US official policy is explicitly _not_ "There's only One China and Taiwan belongs to China".
- doomleika 6y ago
  Thanks for the correction, however > The United States does not support Taiwan independence. That speaks volumes on US' instance. I lived long enough to see that Taiwan is mere a pawn to attack China. If dropping a nuclear bomb on Taiwan could set back China, US will do it in a heartbeat. This is how the world politics works. Always have been.
  - CogitoCogito 6y ago
    Well the US also doesn't support Chinese intervention in Taiwanese affairs and treats Taiwan as a country in all but name which also speaks volumes. The US clearly considers Taiwan as independent and has been okay pretending otherwise as long as it's been politically convenient and China doesn't take any action to end that independence.
    - doomleika 6y ago
      Well if US doesn't want China to intervene US could just let Taiwan have their nuclear weapon in the 80s, which will completely remove Military option from China, but US didn't.[1] -- [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chang_Hsien-yi https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chang_Hsien-yi

baby 6y ago

Is this the first good news of 2021? This is huge! Is google maps going to have Taiwan displayed as a country again now?

arcticbull 6y ago

Well I can’t say I’m mad about this. It’s not a clear unilateral win however as this is likely to make the PRC much more defensive and irritated about the ROC than it already was, and I’m not sure that America has the naval presence in the South China Sea to create a real deterrent to mainland aggression. Hard to say this is bad; hard to say this is good either. It’s different. Ball will be in the Biden administration court. At least it was spiked before hand.

the_resistence 6y ago

Congratulations and all the best!

bsimpson 6y ago

I didn't have "Taiwan" on my list of outgoing presidential pardons. Glad to see us moving towards normalization, but weird to wait until the last week of the administration to play that card.

joshuagross 6y ago
The cynical read for “why wait until the last week” is to make China/US relations even more difficult for Biden. The Trump admin doesn’t have to deal with fallout.

_cs2017_ 6y ago

No American administration ever thought "let's placate Beijing because we are too scared of them getting angry". Every time the decision to compromise with Beijing was made based on a certain trade-off. This is no different today. The US military and civilian experts believe that if Taiwan declares independence, Beijing will use its military to take control of Taiwan, regardless of the US involvement. US presidents do not want several million people to die for the cause of Taiwan independence. Of course, most presidents do not care much about Chinese or Taiwanese deaths, but they do care that this will hurt the US economy and business interests; and depending on how things play out, thousands of Americans may also die, which is bad for reelection. In other words, the US administrations do not want Taiwan to declare independence. They do, however, like to use Taiwan as a pawn in their games with China, just like they would use an aircraft carrier near the Chinese coast. They also like to use Taiwan as a pawn in the internal US political wars, for example by creating difficulties for the opposite party before that party takes over the White House.

99_00 6y ago
>The US military and civilian experts believe that if Taiwan declares independence, Beijing will use its military to take control of Taiwan Taiwan considers its self to be China. What are they going to declare themselves independent from?
- toast0 6y ago
  Rather than declaring independence, Taiwan could grant independence to mainland China.
  - perennate 6y ago
    Currently PRC pressures Taiwan to maintain the status quo, which is that both the PRC and ROC are different factions of the same country. While Taiwan ending official "claims" to the mainland might be seen by the PRC as slightly less bold than declaring independence, the PRC would likely implement the same damaging economic sanctions and increased military threats, so in this case Taiwan might as well declare independence.

snowwrestler 6y ago

The purpose here is to set a fire that the Biden administration has to deal with. That’s why it’s getting done on the way out the door and not when the President took office 4 years ago, or Pompeo was confirmed 2.5 years ago. It’s not likely to work; line staff will ignore this and wait to see what Blinken says. But now Republicans can try to portray a policy consistency as kowtowing to China.

akamaka 6y ago
Or perhaps it’s a response to the purge of pro-democracy politicians in Hong Kong this week?

fmajid 6y ago

Taiwan is the center of the world semiconductor industry and far more critical to the US than Saudi Arabia. It would also be exceedingly difficult to defend from China. There is no point in provoking China into a war we would lose (because China’s military budget has been focused on preventing that for the last 6 decades, whereas ours is scattered across too many objectives) until we have a plan that can succeed.

perennate 6y ago
There is no point in provoking China into a war because it would lead to a nuclear war which would end humanity as we know it. Everyone would lose in any all-on war between two nuclear powers. China has been far more provoking than the US, with Xi Jinping continuing to maintain a 2049 deadline for taking back Taiwan, with force if needed, not to mention cracking down on the pro-democracy party in Hong Kong, which has only inflamed tensions with Taiwan and really won Tsai Ing-wen her second term.
- fmajid 6y ago
  That's my point, a threat of the US escalating to nuclear war to defend Taiwan is not credible. Therefore there must be conventional means of ensuring a conventional attack on Taiwan cannot succeed.

Flenser 6y ago

This is a poisoned pill for Biden. If he goes along with it, it will sevearly harm relations with China; if he walks it back he looks weak on China.