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Update to L.A.'s stay-at-home orders

211 points by CPLX 6y ago

ww520 6y ago
Actually how are the county level officials got into office? City and state officials are elected. What's the process to install a county officials in CA?
- surfpel 6y ago
  Pretty much everyone in charge is elected
- Rebelgecko 6y ago
  Elections
dsfyu404ed 6y ago
It'll be interesting to see how this goes in terms of compliance. You miss mother's day, ok, fine, call her and send her something. You miss memorial day, eh, I guess it's for a good cause. You can't have your annual 4th of July BBQ now your kinda annoyed. You can't do anything all summer and you can't send the kids away to summer camp either, well now you're pissed off. The fewer the local number of cases the harder it is to justify obeying the order in people's minds (especially if they see pics on FB and Instagram of their friends/relatives in other states out and about) and the more people are gonna just disregard the order.
- Cerium 6y ago
  Well, considering 40% of California's daily case load is from LA County, it seems that there are enough cases to justify the order.
  - goo 6y ago
    25% of California's population is from LA county. Just to put that in context.
- Ididntdothis 6y ago
  And the measures don’t make much sense either. In Sonoma County parks are closed but stores are full. If there ever has been a safe place then it would be hiking in a park in my view. Also remind people to keep distance on beaches but don’t just close them.
- ketzo 6y ago
  Yeah. Nate Silver has tweeted a few times about disliking beach shutdowns -- a lot of evidence says outdoor transmission is pretty negligible, and you gotta weigh that against the "cost" to public opinion. People wanna go to the beach pretty bad right now. At some point, people are gonna wanna stop paying the cost, and will simply stop complying with lockdown -- so you gotta ask, where do you trade a little extra risk in return for greater compliance to the rest of the rules?
  - gnopgnip 6y ago
    Most of the beaches in LA are open. The beaches that are closed are closed because social distancing is impractical
  - jayd16 6y ago
    LA beaches are set to reopen for some activity.
    - colechristensen 6y ago
      I took a drive up the coast from Monterey northbound and every beach access was lined with cars. If there was a parking space meant for cars it was closed with yellow caution tape and cones, but if there was a space to park on the side of the road near beach access it was full. It seems they've discovered their authority extends to closing parking lots and not much further, and they don't want to arrest people and get their orders struck down in court.
      - jayd16 6y ago
        Those street spots are usually full anyway. Free parking fills up before the lots so that doesn't surprise me.
  - bcrosby95 6y ago
    So much of the reaction to this is emotional/political. I had a friend tell me he yelled at someone entering a closed park. I said its probably safer in a giant closed park than in my own backyard. He said: well, if I'm not allowed to go to the bar then he can't go to the park.
- tnecniv 6y ago
  Indeed. I think compliance will be really interesting to see, especially in comparison to states that allow small relaxations in the coming weeks. At some point, if they don't feel like progress is happening, people will get fed up with the current situation and begin to socialize without precautions. Meanwhile, if you allow people to do a little socializing, they may end up being more compliant overall.
Ididntdothis 6y ago
There is no way that people will keep complying for such a long time. I am all for mask wearing and work from home as much as possible but a lockdown for such a long time is crazy. What’s the goal? Flattening the curve or no deaths at all? We will probably see in a few months where things are going but from the stats I have seen so far the connection between lockdowns and lower death rates is not that strong. By now I would have thought that all hell would break loose in Florida but it doesn’t seem to be happening.
- Loughla 6y ago
  >By now I would have thought that all hell would break loose in Florida but it doesn’t seem to be happening. How long ago did Florida open everything back up? If I remember correctly it was just May 4th? That's only 8 days. This thing lags by two weeks. Put a note on your calendar to check again in 7 days.
  - prostoalex 6y ago
    The reference is to all the spring break parties taking place two months ago https://www.local10.com/news/local/2020/03/14/south-florida-beaches-packed-despite-coronavirus-fears-as-spring-break-arrives/ https://www.local10.com/news/local/2020/03/14/south-florida-... Arguably, most of the party-goers were out-of-state, but it also would've been relatively easy for authorities to link a spike in deaths to those events. So far we have not seen the spike take place.
    - fullstop 6y ago
      > Arguably, most of the party-goers were out-of-state, but it also would've been relatively easy for authorities to link a spike in deaths to those events. So far we have not seen the spike take place. How would we know? They are spread across the nation.
    - slg 6y ago
      People on spring break are mostly young and the people they interact with while on spring break are mostly young. You would probably need to look at contacts two or three degrees away from them to notice the spike. Has there been an in depth analysis of the extended network of those people?
lsh123 6y ago
I would like to get an official explanation for two things: 1) What is the goal(s) of the "stay-at-home" order? 2) How well it is achieved compared to other counties/countries with different policies?
- atian 6y ago
  Not on here.
- ceejayoz 6y ago
  1. To flatten the infection curve, in order to keep healthcare systems from becoming overwhelmed like those in northern Italy. 2. Thus far, it's worked to keep hospitals functioning. We're doing worse than most other countries (https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/ https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/).
  - icelancer 6y ago
    >> 1. To flatten the infection curve, in order to keep healthcare systems from becoming overwhelmed like those in northern Italy. Very few regions have had anything close to overwhelmed hospitals. More regions have had to lay off hospital staff than have been overwhelmed. Some like UW medicine now face a $500 million budget shortfall due to the ban on elective procedures. Social distancing measures may have an effect on r_t as low as 0.1 per analysis by Nate Silver. Others show a negative or no correlation between government lockdowns and reduction of r_t. It is fair to question if these lockdowns - as instituted - have done anything.
    - Teknoman117 6y ago
      > $500 million budget shortfall due to the ban on elective procedures. I feel like that's a symptom of a much larger problem...
    - sirbranedamuj 6y ago
      The entire hospital staff doesn't just sit around waiting for a pandemic. Most elective procedures have been postponed during this. Large portions of the healthcare system are idle _because_ everyone is at home. The parts of the hospital that can handle the symptoms of the virus are what we're trying to reduce the burden on.
und3rth3iP 6y ago
Not in LA county but another urban center and I'm personally beginning to mentally prepare for a virtual holiday season and just hoping I'm wrong. :/
KerryJones 6y ago
I'm genuinely concerned about rioting. Many of my childhood friends (living in LA) have already been incredibly angry at measures before this came out, and many other protests have already been seen. It seems strange to me to not try to do a partial reopening of businesses that can guarantee social distancing guidelines -- and yet they're reopening recreational activities, including the beach. This feels back-asswards, and I really hope it works out well, but I think they need to think this through really carefully.
- skywhopper 6y ago
  Did you read the article? Because your concerns are addressed. The beaches are planned to reopen soon, and there are procedures in place for partial reopening of some businesses.
  - jeromegv 6y ago
    The fact you have to ask this question is the answer, of course the OP did not read the article.
    - starik36 6y ago
      True, but the article title could have reflected the contents much better.
      - agitator 6y ago
        Yeah definitely click baity.
  - syshum 6y ago
    Not the parent but I am not paying $98 to read the story.... So no I did not, maybe people should post links only to non-pay walled sources
  - KerryJones 6y ago
    Admittedly, I had skimmed parts of the article, though it seems like you didn't read my message either. I mentioned in my original message that the beaches were being reopened soon... so unsure why you're drawing attention to it again. I had missed that they are planning to reopen some businesses: > Under the plan, some in-restaurant dining, car washes and shopping malls could also be allowed to reopen in coming weeks if public health officials in a county are able to demonstrate that the spread of the virus has stabilized and that they have adequate testing and hospital capacity. Specifically: "dining, car washes and shopping malls could" These are _not_ the type of businesses I was referring to. I meant more along the lines of factories, and other "not quite essential, but maybe essential" such as dental offices.
ratfaced-guy 6y ago
Fascists.
mnm1 6y ago
This is a reasonable and necessary response because testing still hasn't ramped up yet. The lockdown's purpose is not only to flatten the curve but to get to a point where trace and test is a viable strategy. It is unfortunate that the US is still only at around half the absolute minimum of daily tests (300k vs 500k) so we still have a long way to go before reopening is actually viable. If authorities wanted to open earlier, they should have increased the testing capacity. Unfortunately, that was not done. It doesn't even matter why at this point and that is a debate for another time and place. The fact of the matter is, we don't have enough testing to reopen in the US. I'm glad at least one county sees that.
- ripberge 6y ago
  Testing has indeed "ramped up" in Los Angeles. Last time I checked there were 39 locations in Los Angeles where you could get a free test, no symptoms necessary. That count does not include going to your doctor or to a private lab. Would love to see the models behind 300k-500k test count and what that achieves. The goal is unclear in Los Angeles.
  - mnm1 6y ago
    Are they are testing everyone with symptoms and tracing/quarantining all their contacts? Because if not, you need around 300 million tests a day.
    - ripberge 6y ago
      If your goal is complete eradication?
- SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
  The problem is that I remember, in the long dark mists of a month ago, when the US was only at around half of the absolute minimum of 130k. I think this is a moving target and that whatever amount of tests we have will always be considered unsatisfactory.
  - 6y ago
subsubzero 6y ago
This is absolutely insane, if LA wants to see a return to the bad old days(think Rodney King/Watts riots/extreme levels of crime) keep up this nonsense. This will absolutely destroy the middle/lower class along with a huge chunk of the economy. This was not put up for a vote, and is being forced down people's throats. There is no timeline for large scale antibody testing, live testing is completely broken, expect to see a huge migration out of California.
- draw_down 6y ago
  I agree that our poor initial response to this crisis sealed our fate.
- ceejayoz 6y ago
  > This was not put up for a vote Very little is. That's why we elect executives at various levels of government. If you want direct democracy, you'll need somewhere like Switzerland, and even there, there's some concept of executive power in emergencies.
  - creaghpatr 6y ago
    Incidentally, Switzerland is opening back up albeit with some basic restrictions. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/05/switzerland-relaxing-its-coronavirus-lockdown-measures/ https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/05/switzerland-relaxing-...
- _-david-_ 6y ago
  >This was not put up for a vote, and is being forced down people's throats. Isn't that the entire purpose of a representative government?
- messick 6y ago
  While white people do think that having to stay inside is the same/worse as decades of oppression by the police, thankfully we don't have to worry about them actually putting their money where their mouth is and doing anything about it.
kyleblarson 6y ago
It is terrifying to see the voracity with which these bureaucrats eat up and wield more and more power.
gazelle21 6y ago
Expect riots
tamaharbor 6y ago
Funny, I always assumed Civil War II would be started by Trump Supporters...
iphone_elegance 6y ago
This is getting dumb and to mixed in with politics; it's a bad but not catastrophic illness and we have to have a bit of adjustment to further mitigate but these generic-stay-at-home orders are just dumb
- ianleeclark 6y ago
  > This is getting dumb and to mixed in with politics In what world could a government shelter orders ever not be involved with politics? I see this comment day-in and day-out on HN and I just can't even begin to conceptualize a world wherein there's some sterile, politics-free zone.
  - tonyedgecombe 6y ago
    There are plenty of places in the world where it isn't so politicised. America does tend to get its knickers in a twist over things the rest of the world barely takes any notice of.
    - ianleeclark 6y ago
      > There are plenty of places in the world where it isn't so politicised Is "politically polarized" what "politics" means to you?
      - iphone_elegance 6y ago
        Not necessary, but it is what I was thinking about when I wrote my original comment my mistake
      - tonyedgecombe 6y ago
        No, well not in the sense that things have become so tribal.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- 6y ago
fasteddie31003 6y ago
As time goes on Sweden's approach to the virus is looking better and better.
- greendave 6y ago
  So far, they have double the fatality rate of LA county.
  - fasteddie31003 6y ago
    I think we are all going to get to the same fatality rate but at different speeds. The lockdown is only going to delay the inevitable unless we get a treatment or vaccine.
  - partiallypro 6y ago
    This is totally fair, however the reason everyone in the US were told to stay home was to flatten the curve to not overwhelm hospitals, and to buy time. That has been done. Hospitals are no where near capacity and new case counts are falling week over week. We have a lot of testing now, a lot of ventilators, a lot more PPE. We are better prepared now. Now the new thing seems to be for stay at home orders to exist so that we have no cases at all. That's not realistic. Politicians need to wake up to the reality that this can't go on. Even if our best case scenario is to avoid all the death we can...it's just not feasible. Not economically, morally, etc. The only real choice is a mixed policy that just have strict guidelines for businesses serving customers. It's the only way.
    - jlebar 6y ago
      > The only real choice is a mixed policy that just have strict guidelines for businesses serving customers. How is this different from what the article proposes?
  - tryptophan 6y ago
    This is expected. Their curve will peak much earlier, but there is no reason to expect the area under the curve(deaths) for LA will be much different than Sweden.
Alan05 6y ago
This feels like quite the extension, especially given how other countries are extending lockdowns by several weeks at a time
anonAndOn 6y ago
Meanwhile, parents and kids alike are starting to feel their blood boil...
IvyMike 6y ago
Compliance is already way down; as someone who has to drive across LA a few times a week (from one isolated situation to another) it has gone from "Night of the Comet" ghost town to "not quite the normal traffic jams but sure a lot of cars out there". Someone else said he fears riots; I think that's unlikely. Much like when a substitute teacher is there, it will just be more and more people slowly pushing the rules until it's like there are no rules.
- catalogia 6y ago
  This fits what I've been seeing. Road and sidewalk traffic is increasing, almost back up to normal levels.
SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
I hate to deliver triumphant "told you so" messages, but I hope that all the people who say "nobody wants to lock down forever" are starting to understand they've been misled.
- the-pigeon 6y ago
  I was 100% behind the initial lockdowns. We had next to no testing and we were seeing disturbing surges. We needed to lockdown to get a handle on what was going on. But now we know what's going on and we don't seem to have a goal to deal with it. Some are going after 0 deaths. Some are going after don't overwhelm hospitals. And some don't destroy the economy. I think we are at a point that every government restriction needs to have a very clear goal attached to it.
  - orangecat 6y ago
    Welcome to group 3 (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23160511 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23160511). There are dozens of us!
vernie 6y ago
It was cool when the same director of public health decided to shut down restaurants selling groceries because they lacked grocery store licenses.
raz32dust 6y ago
This is a big deal, especially given the apparent polarization on this issue. I would love to (1) See the statistics being used by the government, with clear goals when stay-at-home orders can be lifted. (2) How does the govt. plan to enforce this? People in LA weren't following it very well as it is.
brunoTbear 6y ago
Notably more negative sentiment in the comments here than I've seen in the past. I wonder if it's organic.
- subsubzero 6y ago
  I think its just general frustration with California's handling of the lockdown and testing of covid-19, as well as the opaque release of information regarding where cases are located at and lack of wide-scale antibody testing. I'm fine as I can wfh for long time, I feel for others who do not have the opportunity to and cannot come up with rent and food for their families as the Govt. is providing little to no assistance during this time.
- w3mmpp 6y ago
  Tell people they may have to stay 2 months more in lockdown what do you expect, positive comments?
  - _-david-_ 6y ago
    The previous threads about covid have a large number of comments basically saying you can choose between saving lives or the economy. Anybody who suggested we should open up was accused of being greedy and wanted people to die to avoid being inconvenienced.
    - thelean12 6y ago
      People are getting a more complete view of the potential outcomes and options. If the most likely outcome is that 50-70% of the population gets infected anyway, then the goal shouldn't be to save lives. It should just be to keep a buffer of beds available in hospitals and to close only enough to keep that buffer. This is what NY is doing with their 30% hospital capacity buffer metric. The bay area has had plenty of hospital capacity and people can see that as a failure with the 50-70% assumption. Of course, that all could be wrong, and we could save millions by continuing to be mostly closed. I'm not sure. But the change in tone could be people moving towards the first option.
    - 6y ago
vmception 6y ago
> Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, warned Congress that states that push too quickly to ease orders could undo progress that would trigger an outbreak. Its not about strictly avoiding triggering an outbreak, its about the hospitals having capacity to deal with the inevitable outbreaks, plural! We aren't going to tolerate Mayors, Governors and Public Health agencies picking business types one by one forever. This was always about slowing exposure, not preventing it. In Norcal we have been very tolerant and cooperative, but I'm watching Socal as a precursor.
buboard 6y ago
What's the rationale behind the criteria of LA ? "No death in the past 14 days" ? That's nuts. the rest of the criteria might be workable. European countries have opened up with less than that, and it hasn't been a disaster so far. This is also just dumb: Face coverings will be required when not in the water, and sunbathing won’t be allowed.
- Trasmatta 6y ago
  Somebody else linked Goodhart's law in this thread, and I think that's pretty applicable. Using these measures as strict criteria rather than looking at the bigger picture that they paint seems like a huge mistake. All of LA can't open if just a single 95 year old person dies of COVID in the past two weeks?
  - wahern 6y ago
    You're complaining about a metric--"No death in the past 14 days"--that doesn't exist and merely posed rhetorically. The principle metric in California, as almost anywhere else, is access to widespread testing. Testing resources are only a fraction of what they need to be in order for the state to be able to even theoretically contain outbreaks under ideal circumstances. The Federal government should have been all over this months ago, but it refuses to accept responsibility even though it's the only entity in the nation that can make it happen anytime soon. Secondly, daily reported cases are continuing to rise in California. So to suggest the criteria is no new deaths is ridiculous. Rather, it appears they were originally hoping to wait for a cessation in the increase in daily deaths, but that appears to not be in the cards given how shelter-in-place compliance will never be as good as it was a few weeks ago. The dilemma here is either playing with people's livelihoods vs playing with their lives. These are two different things, as anyone who's lived in a war zone or famine would attest. I'm pretty sure I know which one most people would choose if they were faced with the stark choice, but they're rarely faced with that choice, or if they are they deny it and move on. That's basic human behavior and I don't expect that change, but it's important to understand the distinction when criticizing a public leader making population-wide choices. FWIW, nearly 1/3 of Americans are 55+. It's amazing how quickly we turn to infighting. How ironic, yet entirely unsurprising, that most of the people we're so quickly willing to sacrifice are the ones who literally went to war--WWII, Korea, and Vietnam--for the United States.
justaguy88 6y ago
Compliance is about to take a nosedive
mydongle 6y ago
Fuck man, are we gonna go through the panic buying again?
qwe098cube 6y ago
I miss a precise goal what this extended lockdown should achieve. Is it adequate medical support or stopping the virus and the deaths? The latter seems highly unlikely given the metric of 14 days without deaths. What if there are still a lot of cases in July, lockdown indefinitely?
nostromo 6y ago
This is insanity. California is weeks away from bankruptcy. Newsom is banking on a federal bailout that isn't coming. https://www.paloaltoonline.com/news/2020/05/10/california-just-revealed-a-543-billion-deficit--signaling-deep-cuts-ahead https://www.paloaltoonline.com/news/2020/05/10/california-ju...
- throwaway122378 6y ago
  Newsom is playing a win/win. Close it down and go deeper in the red and force the federal government to pay out. 1) Federal govt pays, he wins 2) Federal govt doesn’t pay, he blames the chaos on the federal govt. He wins This guy needs to be removed from office for gambling with peoples lives
  - selimthegrim 6y ago
    How many marriages has he wrecked now? His character wasn't obvious to people?
  - eschulz 6y ago
    I don't think Newsom wins on your second scenario. He might think he could win, but he would be mistaken.
    - throwaway122378 6y ago
      I hope your right. Lots of people waking up to the lies we’ve been told
slg 6y ago
I guess I will be the "Did you read the article?" guy because most of the people in the comments here are really overreacting to what was said in the article. This isn't a plan to maintain a full lockdown for the next 3 months. It was simply a comment that the stay-at-home orders are unlikely to be completely gone in three months. It is talking about the return to semi-normal life. It isn't saying all non-essential businesses need to be closed for the next 3 months. LA County has already moved to start opening up and this article says they will continue on that path.
- whalesalad 6y ago
  Do you live here? The article certainly mentions that there is already a slow opening occurring. The issue is a lack of trust or faith in the gov't to do that at a good enough pace, or to even do it correctly at all. The angst you are feeling from the comments is from people who live here.
  - slg 6y ago
    Yes, I live in LA county and I understand the angst, but I think it is overboard to claim that residents are going to riot because they won't be able to go to a crowded bar in June.
    - ibejoeb 6y ago
      >residents are going to riot because they won't be able to go to a crowded bar in June I hate this juvenile, dismissive angle that's so pervasive here. There are serious considerations here. It's not just about enjoying life. First: how are we going to fund compulsory unemployment for another 3 months?
      - whalesalad 6y ago
        Totally. And what about all the non-essential businesses? A friend of mine owns a dog washing business. None of his employees want to work because 1. they earn more on unemployment and 2. he can’t re open anyways because he’s not essential. So he just sits around day after day watching his business go down the toilet.
clairity 6y ago
this will backfire on politicians. the "better safe than sorry" line of reasoning is deeply flawed thinking. it's a way to absolve politicians of the hard job of finding the best answer, the best tradeoff. cutting off the extrema works in the confines of mathematical optimization, but in real, human systems, hitting an extreme in one dimension is never the right answer. the system is infinitely faceted and exponentially interrelated. for the general population, rather than lockdown, it would have been easy to start back in early march with two simple rules: 1) physically distance, _or_ wear a mask when inside public spaces (which implies no large gatherings), and 2) if you're sick or have co-morbidities, self-quarantine. as time went on, you could then deal with the harder edge cases like schools (in socal, you could have "classrooms" out on playgrounds and fields under large tents if necessary). instead politicians have painted themselves into a corner and can't find their way out.
ummonk 6y ago
> “Our hope is that by using the data, we’d be able to slowly lift restrictions over the next three months,” she said. But without widely available therapeutic testing for the coronavirus or rapid at-home versions that would allow people to test themselves daily, it seems unlikely that restrictions would be completely eased. It sounds like they will lift most restrictions but some restrictions (e.g. bans on very large events) will still be in place.
throwaway122378 6y ago
No where in the article are any mention of the methods or statistics used by PUBLIC officials to make this decision. No mention about California’s or LA County’s current infections (68,000) and or deaths (3,000). Relative to the stats, this is a tyrannical power grab by the public officials of a state with the population of more than 40,000,000.
btian 6y ago
Sounds like a terrible idea. Doesn't closing SpaceX also have national security implications?
- Rebelgecko 6y ago
  SpaceX isn't closed. All of the LA County defense contractors have exemptions for "essential" personnel, which for SpaceX seems to include their preschool workers as well
testfoobar 6y ago
What are the odds that a similar extension happens in the Bay Area? Any rumblings from the local health departments?
not_a_moth 6y ago
This isn’t policy based on data or reason. Just some summary thoughts Cost of lockdowns: a) lack of preventative care ; lack of trips to hospital when would otherwise ; missed vaccines b) mental health issues ; suicides c) child and spousal abuse d) vitamin D deficiency from staying indoors extra hours, weakening immune system ; lack of regular pathogen exposure also weakening the immune system e) metabolic issues from sitting extra hours each day f) economy wise, destruction of businesses and livelihood, with new huge pile of national debt risking long term economic problems and inflation Sweden: Sweden has claimed they will reach herd immunity the month. The mortality per capita in Sweden is less than France, Italy, Spain, Belgium, Netherland, Switzerland. 3k deaths total, that’s less than the seasonal flu in Sweden, with average age being above the average age of life expectancy (same in US too). CFR in US: We know it’s far lower than what’s reported due to sampling of asymptomatic (and common sense - it started perhaps as early as October with any significant screening or testing only staring 3-4 months later), as well as because “died with Covid” is merged with “died from Covid” in official stats in US. If you need further proof look at places like Singapore where it’s < .1% CFR despite 25k cases/ large volum of new cases per day. Politics in the US: Watching this unfold in recent weeks it's hard not to be cynical and conclude this is perhaps the only reason someone would extend these lockdowns for 3 months.
jedberg 6y ago
I see a lot of comments about "people will ignore this". I don't know if that's true or not, but here is some interesting data: If you look at Opentable's data [0] about dining reservations, you can see a cliff on March 16th in all states across the country. March 16th is the day after the very first SIP order was given (in Santa Clara county). So in other words, despite not being locked down, most people around the country were too afraid to go out. [0] https://www.opentable.com/state-of-industry https://www.opentable.com/state-of-industry
- agitator 6y ago
  ...isn't that because people expected things to re-open on that date? All of those businesses ceased operation. It's not because people didn't want to go out. They couldn't even if they wanted to. I rescheduled a haircut to the 16th because I figured that's when they will start cutting hair again.
  - jedberg 6y ago
    No, this was in March. No one was closed yet except Santa Clara county. The restaurants were open but their reservations dropped off a cliff.
lorsting 6y ago
I hoped America will bring some sanity in this panicked world. I’m not sure this will happen anymore. What next?
simonbarker87 6y ago
It seems like most commenters haven’t read the article. The opening described in this article happening this week is more extensive than all of the UK and Italy have at the moment. The quotes read to me as officials are opening things up but leaving enough wiggle room in comments about the future that they can point back to if a big flare up requires them to slow down or rollback.
neonate 6y ago
https://archive.md/j8vY9 https://archive.md/j8vY9
aazaa 6y ago
> Los Angeles County’s stay-at-home orders will “with all certainty” be extended for the next three months, county Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer acknowledged during a Board of Supervisors meeting on Tuesday. Oddly, the article never links to the order nor gives a summary. Here it is: http://file.lacounty.gov/SDSInter/lac/1070029_COVID-19_SaferAtHome_HealthOfficerOrder_20200319_Signed.pdf http://file.lacounty.gov/SDSInter/lac/1070029_COVID-19_Safer...
dmode 6y ago
This is a weird article. The headline is derived from a random board meeting and not even an official statement. It seems like the plan is to open up slowly
cpncrunch 6y ago
It's interesting to compare responses: UK police stopping people from sitting on Brighton beach: https://uk.news.yahoo.com/brighton-beach-police-checkpoint-lockdown-coronavirus-172845913.html https://uk.news.yahoo.com/brighton-beach-police-checkpoint-l... LA saying you can go to the beach, but you're not allowed to sit down or take an umbrella: https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-05-12/coronavirus-beaches-reopen-los-angeles-county-move-toward-new-normal https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-05-12/coronavi... In Vancouver people are flocking to the beach, but mostly following social distancing, and BC's chief health officer is fine with that (she has said in the past that people should get outside, as the risk of catching the virus while walking past someone outside is infinitessimal): https://bc.ctvnews.ca/just-how-crowded-are-b-c-beaches-pictures-highlight-how-perspectives-can-mislead-1.4935162 https://bc.ctvnews.ca/just-how-crowded-are-b-c-beaches-pictu... I think BC's response is the only one that is based on science, logic and reason, whereas the UK, San Francisco and LA seem to be having a more extreme lockdown that isn't really based on any kind of logic and is just going to piss people off and negatively affect mental health.

211 points by CPLX 6y ago

Actually how are the county level officials got into office? City and state officials are elected. What's the process to install a county officials in CA?

surfpel 6y ago
Pretty much everyone in charge is elected
Rebelgecko 6y ago
Elections

dsfyu404ed 6y ago

It'll be interesting to see how this goes in terms of compliance. You miss mother's day, ok, fine, call her and send her something. You miss memorial day, eh, I guess it's for a good cause. You can't have your annual 4th of July BBQ now your kinda annoyed. You can't do anything all summer and you can't send the kids away to summer camp either, well now you're pissed off. The fewer the local number of cases the harder it is to justify obeying the order in people's minds (especially if they see pics on FB and Instagram of their friends/relatives in other states out and about) and the more people are gonna just disregard the order.

Cerium 6y ago
Well, considering 40% of California's daily case load is from LA County, it seems that there are enough cases to justify the order.
- goo 6y ago
  25% of California's population is from LA county. Just to put that in context.
Ididntdothis 6y ago
And the measures don’t make much sense either. In Sonoma County parks are closed but stores are full. If there ever has been a safe place then it would be hiking in a park in my view. Also remind people to keep distance on beaches but don’t just close them.
ketzo 6y ago
Yeah. Nate Silver has tweeted a few times about disliking beach shutdowns -- a lot of evidence says outdoor transmission is pretty negligible, and you gotta weigh that against the "cost" to public opinion. People wanna go to the beach pretty bad right now. At some point, people are gonna wanna stop paying the cost, and will simply stop complying with lockdown -- so you gotta ask, where do you trade a little extra risk in return for greater compliance to the rest of the rules?
- gnopgnip 6y ago
  Most of the beaches in LA are open. The beaches that are closed are closed because social distancing is impractical
- jayd16 6y ago
  LA beaches are set to reopen for some activity.
  - colechristensen 6y ago
    I took a drive up the coast from Monterey northbound and every beach access was lined with cars. If there was a parking space meant for cars it was closed with yellow caution tape and cones, but if there was a space to park on the side of the road near beach access it was full. It seems they've discovered their authority extends to closing parking lots and not much further, and they don't want to arrest people and get their orders struck down in court.
    - jayd16 6y ago
      Those street spots are usually full anyway. Free parking fills up before the lots so that doesn't surprise me.
- bcrosby95 6y ago
  So much of the reaction to this is emotional/political. I had a friend tell me he yelled at someone entering a closed park. I said its probably safer in a giant closed park than in my own backyard. He said: well, if I'm not allowed to go to the bar then he can't go to the park.
tnecniv 6y ago
Indeed. I think compliance will be really interesting to see, especially in comparison to states that allow small relaxations in the coming weeks. At some point, if they don't feel like progress is happening, people will get fed up with the current situation and begin to socialize without precautions. Meanwhile, if you allow people to do a little socializing, they may end up being more compliant overall.

Ididntdothis 6y ago

There is no way that people will keep complying for such a long time. I am all for mask wearing and work from home as much as possible but a lockdown for such a long time is crazy. What’s the goal? Flattening the curve or no deaths at all? We will probably see in a few months where things are going but from the stats I have seen so far the connection between lockdowns and lower death rates is not that strong. By now I would have thought that all hell would break loose in Florida but it doesn’t seem to be happening.

Loughla 6y ago
>By now I would have thought that all hell would break loose in Florida but it doesn’t seem to be happening. How long ago did Florida open everything back up? If I remember correctly it was just May 4th? That's only 8 days. This thing lags by two weeks. Put a note on your calendar to check again in 7 days.
- prostoalex 6y ago
  The reference is to all the spring break parties taking place two months ago https://www.local10.com/news/local/2020/03/14/south-florida-beaches-packed-despite-coronavirus-fears-as-spring-break-arrives/ https://www.local10.com/news/local/2020/03/14/south-florida-... Arguably, most of the party-goers were out-of-state, but it also would've been relatively easy for authorities to link a spike in deaths to those events. So far we have not seen the spike take place.
  - fullstop 6y ago
    > Arguably, most of the party-goers were out-of-state, but it also would've been relatively easy for authorities to link a spike in deaths to those events. So far we have not seen the spike take place. How would we know? They are spread across the nation.
  - slg 6y ago
    People on spring break are mostly young and the people they interact with while on spring break are mostly young. You would probably need to look at contacts two or three degrees away from them to notice the spike. Has there been an in depth analysis of the extended network of those people?

lsh123 6y ago

I would like to get an official explanation for two things: 1) What is the goal(s) of the "stay-at-home" order? 2) How well it is achieved compared to other counties/countries with different policies?

atian 6y ago
Not on here.
ceejayoz 6y ago
1. To flatten the infection curve, in order to keep healthcare systems from becoming overwhelmed like those in northern Italy. 2. Thus far, it's worked to keep hospitals functioning. We're doing worse than most other countries (https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/ https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/).
- icelancer 6y ago
  >> 1. To flatten the infection curve, in order to keep healthcare systems from becoming overwhelmed like those in northern Italy. Very few regions have had anything close to overwhelmed hospitals. More regions have had to lay off hospital staff than have been overwhelmed. Some like UW medicine now face a $500 million budget shortfall due to the ban on elective procedures. Social distancing measures may have an effect on r_t as low as 0.1 per analysis by Nate Silver. Others show a negative or no correlation between government lockdowns and reduction of r_t. It is fair to question if these lockdowns - as instituted - have done anything.
  - Teknoman117 6y ago
    > $500 million budget shortfall due to the ban on elective procedures. I feel like that's a symptom of a much larger problem...
  - sirbranedamuj 6y ago
    The entire hospital staff doesn't just sit around waiting for a pandemic. Most elective procedures have been postponed during this. Large portions of the healthcare system are idle _because_ everyone is at home. The parts of the hospital that can handle the symptoms of the virus are what we're trying to reduce the burden on.

und3rth3iP 6y ago

Not in LA county but another urban center and I'm personally beginning to mentally prepare for a virtual holiday season and just hoping I'm wrong. :/

KerryJones 6y ago

I'm genuinely concerned about rioting. Many of my childhood friends (living in LA) have already been incredibly angry at measures before this came out, and many other protests have already been seen. It seems strange to me to not try to do a partial reopening of businesses that can guarantee social distancing guidelines -- and yet they're reopening recreational activities, including the beach. This feels back-asswards, and I really hope it works out well, but I think they need to think this through really carefully.

skywhopper 6y ago
Did you read the article? Because your concerns are addressed. The beaches are planned to reopen soon, and there are procedures in place for partial reopening of some businesses.
- jeromegv 6y ago
  The fact you have to ask this question is the answer, of course the OP did not read the article.
  - starik36 6y ago
    True, but the article title could have reflected the contents much better.
    - agitator 6y ago
      Yeah definitely click baity.
- syshum 6y ago
  Not the parent but I am not paying $98 to read the story.... So no I did not, maybe people should post links only to non-pay walled sources
- KerryJones 6y ago
  Admittedly, I had skimmed parts of the article, though it seems like you didn't read my message either. I mentioned in my original message that the beaches were being reopened soon... so unsure why you're drawing attention to it again. I had missed that they are planning to reopen some businesses: > Under the plan, some in-restaurant dining, car washes and shopping malls could also be allowed to reopen in coming weeks if public health officials in a county are able to demonstrate that the spread of the virus has stabilized and that they have adequate testing and hospital capacity. Specifically: "dining, car washes and shopping malls could" These are _not_ the type of businesses I was referring to. I meant more along the lines of factories, and other "not quite essential, but maybe essential" such as dental offices.

ratfaced-guy 6y ago

Fascists.

mnm1 6y ago

This is a reasonable and necessary response because testing still hasn't ramped up yet. The lockdown's purpose is not only to flatten the curve but to get to a point where trace and test is a viable strategy. It is unfortunate that the US is still only at around half the absolute minimum of daily tests (300k vs 500k) so we still have a long way to go before reopening is actually viable. If authorities wanted to open earlier, they should have increased the testing capacity. Unfortunately, that was not done. It doesn't even matter why at this point and that is a debate for another time and place. The fact of the matter is, we don't have enough testing to reopen in the US. I'm glad at least one county sees that.

ripberge 6y ago
Testing has indeed "ramped up" in Los Angeles. Last time I checked there were 39 locations in Los Angeles where you could get a free test, no symptoms necessary. That count does not include going to your doctor or to a private lab. Would love to see the models behind 300k-500k test count and what that achieves. The goal is unclear in Los Angeles.
- mnm1 6y ago
  Are they are testing everyone with symptoms and tracing/quarantining all their contacts? Because if not, you need around 300 million tests a day.
  - ripberge 6y ago
    If your goal is complete eradication?
SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
The problem is that I remember, in the long dark mists of a month ago, when the US was only at around half of the absolute minimum of 130k. I think this is a moving target and that whatever amount of tests we have will always be considered unsatisfactory.
- 6y ago

subsubzero 6y ago

This is absolutely insane, if LA wants to see a return to the bad old days(think Rodney King/Watts riots/extreme levels of crime) keep up this nonsense. This will absolutely destroy the middle/lower class along with a huge chunk of the economy. This was not put up for a vote, and is being forced down people's throats. There is no timeline for large scale antibody testing, live testing is completely broken, expect to see a huge migration out of California.

draw_down 6y ago
I agree that our poor initial response to this crisis sealed our fate.
ceejayoz 6y ago
> This was not put up for a vote Very little is. That's why we elect executives at various levels of government. If you want direct democracy, you'll need somewhere like Switzerland, and even there, there's some concept of executive power in emergencies.
- creaghpatr 6y ago
  Incidentally, Switzerland is opening back up albeit with some basic restrictions. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/05/switzerland-relaxing-its-coronavirus-lockdown-measures/ https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/05/switzerland-relaxing-...
_-david-_ 6y ago
>This was not put up for a vote, and is being forced down people's throats. Isn't that the entire purpose of a representative government?
messick 6y ago
While white people do think that having to stay inside is the same/worse as decades of oppression by the police, thankfully we don't have to worry about them actually putting their money where their mouth is and doing anything about it.

kyleblarson 6y ago

It is terrifying to see the voracity with which these bureaucrats eat up and wield more and more power.

gazelle21 6y ago

Expect riots

tamaharbor 6y ago

Funny, I always assumed Civil War II would be started by Trump Supporters...

iphone_elegance 6y ago

This is getting dumb and to mixed in with politics; it's a bad but not catastrophic illness and we have to have a bit of adjustment to further mitigate but these generic-stay-at-home orders are just dumb

ianleeclark 6y ago
> This is getting dumb and to mixed in with politics In what world could a government shelter orders ever not be involved with politics? I see this comment day-in and day-out on HN and I just can't even begin to conceptualize a world wherein there's some sterile, politics-free zone.
- tonyedgecombe 6y ago
  There are plenty of places in the world where it isn't so politicised. America does tend to get its knickers in a twist over things the rest of the world barely takes any notice of.
  - ianleeclark 6y ago
    > There are plenty of places in the world where it isn't so politicised Is "politically polarized" what "politics" means to you?
    - iphone_elegance 6y ago
      Not necessary, but it is what I was thinking about when I wrote my original comment my mistake
    - tonyedgecombe 6y ago
      No, well not in the sense that things have become so tribal.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
6y ago

fasteddie31003 6y ago

As time goes on Sweden's approach to the virus is looking better and better.

greendave 6y ago
So far, they have double the fatality rate of LA county.
- fasteddie31003 6y ago
  I think we are all going to get to the same fatality rate but at different speeds. The lockdown is only going to delay the inevitable unless we get a treatment or vaccine.
- partiallypro 6y ago
  This is totally fair, however the reason everyone in the US were told to stay home was to flatten the curve to not overwhelm hospitals, and to buy time. That has been done. Hospitals are no where near capacity and new case counts are falling week over week. We have a lot of testing now, a lot of ventilators, a lot more PPE. We are better prepared now. Now the new thing seems to be for stay at home orders to exist so that we have no cases at all. That's not realistic. Politicians need to wake up to the reality that this can't go on. Even if our best case scenario is to avoid all the death we can...it's just not feasible. Not economically, morally, etc. The only real choice is a mixed policy that just have strict guidelines for businesses serving customers. It's the only way.
  - jlebar 6y ago
    > The only real choice is a mixed policy that just have strict guidelines for businesses serving customers. How is this different from what the article proposes?
- tryptophan 6y ago
  This is expected. Their curve will peak much earlier, but there is no reason to expect the area under the curve(deaths) for LA will be much different than Sweden.

Alan05 6y ago

This feels like quite the extension, especially given how other countries are extending lockdowns by several weeks at a time

anonAndOn 6y ago

Meanwhile, parents and kids alike are starting to feel their blood boil...

IvyMike 6y ago

Compliance is already way down; as someone who has to drive across LA a few times a week (from one isolated situation to another) it has gone from "Night of the Comet" ghost town to "not quite the normal traffic jams but sure a lot of cars out there". Someone else said he fears riots; I think that's unlikely. Much like when a substitute teacher is there, it will just be more and more people slowly pushing the rules until it's like there are no rules.

catalogia 6y ago
This fits what I've been seeing. Road and sidewalk traffic is increasing, almost back up to normal levels.

SpicyLemonZest 6y ago

I hate to deliver triumphant "told you so" messages, but I hope that all the people who say "nobody wants to lock down forever" are starting to understand they've been misled.

the-pigeon 6y ago
I was 100% behind the initial lockdowns. We had next to no testing and we were seeing disturbing surges. We needed to lockdown to get a handle on what was going on. But now we know what's going on and we don't seem to have a goal to deal with it. Some are going after 0 deaths. Some are going after don't overwhelm hospitals. And some don't destroy the economy. I think we are at a point that every government restriction needs to have a very clear goal attached to it.
- orangecat 6y ago
  Welcome to group 3 (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23160511 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23160511). There are dozens of us!

vernie 6y ago

It was cool when the same director of public health decided to shut down restaurants selling groceries because they lacked grocery store licenses.

raz32dust 6y ago

This is a big deal, especially given the apparent polarization on this issue. I would love to (1) See the statistics being used by the government, with clear goals when stay-at-home orders can be lifted. (2) How does the govt. plan to enforce this? People in LA weren't following it very well as it is.

brunoTbear 6y ago

Notably more negative sentiment in the comments here than I've seen in the past. I wonder if it's organic.

subsubzero 6y ago
I think its just general frustration with California's handling of the lockdown and testing of covid-19, as well as the opaque release of information regarding where cases are located at and lack of wide-scale antibody testing. I'm fine as I can wfh for long time, I feel for others who do not have the opportunity to and cannot come up with rent and food for their families as the Govt. is providing little to no assistance during this time.
w3mmpp 6y ago
Tell people they may have to stay 2 months more in lockdown what do you expect, positive comments?
- _-david-_ 6y ago
  The previous threads about covid have a large number of comments basically saying you can choose between saving lives or the economy. Anybody who suggested we should open up was accused of being greedy and wanted people to die to avoid being inconvenienced.
  - thelean12 6y ago
    People are getting a more complete view of the potential outcomes and options. If the most likely outcome is that 50-70% of the population gets infected anyway, then the goal shouldn't be to save lives. It should just be to keep a buffer of beds available in hospitals and to close only enough to keep that buffer. This is what NY is doing with their 30% hospital capacity buffer metric. The bay area has had plenty of hospital capacity and people can see that as a failure with the 50-70% assumption. Of course, that all could be wrong, and we could save millions by continuing to be mostly closed. I'm not sure. But the change in tone could be people moving towards the first option.
  - 6y ago

vmception 6y ago

> Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, warned Congress that states that push too quickly to ease orders could undo progress that would trigger an outbreak. Its not about strictly avoiding triggering an outbreak, its about the hospitals having capacity to deal with the inevitable outbreaks, plural! We aren't going to tolerate Mayors, Governors and Public Health agencies picking business types one by one forever. This was always about slowing exposure, not preventing it. In Norcal we have been very tolerant and cooperative, but I'm watching Socal as a precursor.

buboard 6y ago

What's the rationale behind the criteria of LA ? "No death in the past 14 days" ? That's nuts. the rest of the criteria might be workable. European countries have opened up with less than that, and it hasn't been a disaster so far. This is also just dumb: Face coverings will be required when not in the water, and sunbathing won’t be allowed.

Trasmatta 6y ago
Somebody else linked Goodhart's law in this thread, and I think that's pretty applicable. Using these measures as strict criteria rather than looking at the bigger picture that they paint seems like a huge mistake. All of LA can't open if just a single 95 year old person dies of COVID in the past two weeks?
- wahern 6y ago
  You're complaining about a metric--"No death in the past 14 days"--that doesn't exist and merely posed rhetorically. The principle metric in California, as almost anywhere else, is access to widespread testing. Testing resources are only a fraction of what they need to be in order for the state to be able to even theoretically contain outbreaks under ideal circumstances. The Federal government should have been all over this months ago, but it refuses to accept responsibility even though it's the only entity in the nation that can make it happen anytime soon. Secondly, daily reported cases are continuing to rise in California. So to suggest the criteria is no new deaths is ridiculous. Rather, it appears they were originally hoping to wait for a cessation in the increase in daily deaths, but that appears to not be in the cards given how shelter-in-place compliance will never be as good as it was a few weeks ago. The dilemma here is either playing with people's livelihoods vs playing with their lives. These are two different things, as anyone who's lived in a war zone or famine would attest. I'm pretty sure I know which one most people would choose if they were faced with the stark choice, but they're rarely faced with that choice, or if they are they deny it and move on. That's basic human behavior and I don't expect that change, but it's important to understand the distinction when criticizing a public leader making population-wide choices. FWIW, nearly 1/3 of Americans are 55+. It's amazing how quickly we turn to infighting. How ironic, yet entirely unsurprising, that most of the people we're so quickly willing to sacrifice are the ones who literally went to war--WWII, Korea, and Vietnam--for the United States.

justaguy88 6y ago

Compliance is about to take a nosedive

mydongle 6y ago

Fuck man, are we gonna go through the panic buying again?

qwe098cube 6y ago

I miss a precise goal what this extended lockdown should achieve. Is it adequate medical support or stopping the virus and the deaths? The latter seems highly unlikely given the metric of 14 days without deaths. What if there are still a lot of cases in July, lockdown indefinitely?

nostromo 6y ago

This is insanity. California is weeks away from bankruptcy. Newsom is banking on a federal bailout that isn't coming. https://www.paloaltoonline.com/news/2020/05/10/california-just-revealed-a-543-billion-deficit--signaling-deep-cuts-ahead https://www.paloaltoonline.com/news/2020/05/10/california-ju...

throwaway122378 6y ago
Newsom is playing a win/win. Close it down and go deeper in the red and force the federal government to pay out. 1) Federal govt pays, he wins 2) Federal govt doesn’t pay, he blames the chaos on the federal govt. He wins This guy needs to be removed from office for gambling with peoples lives
- selimthegrim 6y ago
  How many marriages has he wrecked now? His character wasn't obvious to people?
- eschulz 6y ago
  I don't think Newsom wins on your second scenario. He might think he could win, but he would be mistaken.
  - throwaway122378 6y ago
    I hope your right. Lots of people waking up to the lies we’ve been told

slg 6y ago

I guess I will be the "Did you read the article?" guy because most of the people in the comments here are really overreacting to what was said in the article. This isn't a plan to maintain a full lockdown for the next 3 months. It was simply a comment that the stay-at-home orders are unlikely to be completely gone in three months. It is talking about the return to semi-normal life. It isn't saying all non-essential businesses need to be closed for the next 3 months. LA County has already moved to start opening up and this article says they will continue on that path.

whalesalad 6y ago
Do you live here? The article certainly mentions that there is already a slow opening occurring. The issue is a lack of trust or faith in the gov't to do that at a good enough pace, or to even do it correctly at all. The angst you are feeling from the comments is from people who live here.
- slg 6y ago
  Yes, I live in LA county and I understand the angst, but I think it is overboard to claim that residents are going to riot because they won't be able to go to a crowded bar in June.
  - ibejoeb 6y ago
    >residents are going to riot because they won't be able to go to a crowded bar in June I hate this juvenile, dismissive angle that's so pervasive here. There are serious considerations here. It's not just about enjoying life. First: how are we going to fund compulsory unemployment for another 3 months?
    - whalesalad 6y ago
      Totally. And what about all the non-essential businesses? A friend of mine owns a dog washing business. None of his employees want to work because 1. they earn more on unemployment and 2. he can’t re open anyways because he’s not essential. So he just sits around day after day watching his business go down the toilet.

clairity 6y ago

this will backfire on politicians. the "better safe than sorry" line of reasoning is deeply flawed thinking. it's a way to absolve politicians of the hard job of finding the best answer, the best tradeoff. cutting off the extrema works in the confines of mathematical optimization, but in real, human systems, hitting an extreme in one dimension is never the right answer. the system is infinitely faceted and exponentially interrelated. for the general population, rather than lockdown, it would have been easy to start back in early march with two simple rules: 1) physically distance, _or_ wear a mask when inside public spaces (which implies no large gatherings), and 2) if you're sick or have co-morbidities, self-quarantine. as time went on, you could then deal with the harder edge cases like schools (in socal, you could have "classrooms" out on playgrounds and fields under large tents if necessary). instead politicians have painted themselves into a corner and can't find their way out.

ummonk 6y ago

> “Our hope is that by using the data, we’d be able to slowly lift restrictions over the next three months,” she said. But without widely available therapeutic testing for the coronavirus or rapid at-home versions that would allow people to test themselves daily, it seems unlikely that restrictions would be completely eased. It sounds like they will lift most restrictions but some restrictions (e.g. bans on very large events) will still be in place.

throwaway122378 6y ago

No where in the article are any mention of the methods or statistics used by PUBLIC officials to make this decision. No mention about California’s or LA County’s current infections (68,000) and or deaths (3,000). Relative to the stats, this is a tyrannical power grab by the public officials of a state with the population of more than 40,000,000.

btian 6y ago

Sounds like a terrible idea. Doesn't closing SpaceX also have national security implications?

Rebelgecko 6y ago
SpaceX isn't closed. All of the LA County defense contractors have exemptions for "essential" personnel, which for SpaceX seems to include their preschool workers as well

testfoobar 6y ago

What are the odds that a similar extension happens in the Bay Area? Any rumblings from the local health departments?

not_a_moth 6y ago

This isn’t policy based on data or reason. Just some summary thoughts Cost of lockdowns: a) lack of preventative care ; lack of trips to hospital when would otherwise ; missed vaccines b) mental health issues ; suicides c) child and spousal abuse d) vitamin D deficiency from staying indoors extra hours, weakening immune system ; lack of regular pathogen exposure also weakening the immune system e) metabolic issues from sitting extra hours each day f) economy wise, destruction of businesses and livelihood, with new huge pile of national debt risking long term economic problems and inflation Sweden: Sweden has claimed they will reach herd immunity the month. The mortality per capita in Sweden is less than France, Italy, Spain, Belgium, Netherland, Switzerland. 3k deaths total, that’s less than the seasonal flu in Sweden, with average age being above the average age of life expectancy (same in US too). CFR in US: We know it’s far lower than what’s reported due to sampling of asymptomatic (and common sense - it started perhaps as early as October with any significant screening or testing only staring 3-4 months later), as well as because “died with Covid” is merged with “died from Covid” in official stats in US. If you need further proof look at places like Singapore where it’s < .1% CFR despite 25k cases/ large volum of new cases per day. Politics in the US: Watching this unfold in recent weeks it's hard not to be cynical and conclude this is perhaps the only reason someone would extend these lockdowns for 3 months.

jedberg 6y ago

I see a lot of comments about "people will ignore this". I don't know if that's true or not, but here is some interesting data: If you look at Opentable's data [0] about dining reservations, you can see a cliff on March 16th in all states across the country. March 16th is the day after the very first SIP order was given (in Santa Clara county). So in other words, despite not being locked down, most people around the country were too afraid to go out. [0] https://www.opentable.com/state-of-industry https://www.opentable.com/state-of-industry

agitator 6y ago
...isn't that because people expected things to re-open on that date? All of those businesses ceased operation. It's not because people didn't want to go out. They couldn't even if they wanted to. I rescheduled a haircut to the 16th because I figured that's when they will start cutting hair again.
- jedberg 6y ago
  No, this was in March. No one was closed yet except Santa Clara county. The restaurants were open but their reservations dropped off a cliff.

lorsting 6y ago

I hoped America will bring some sanity in this panicked world. I’m not sure this will happen anymore. What next?

simonbarker87 6y ago

It seems like most commenters haven’t read the article. The opening described in this article happening this week is more extensive than all of the UK and Italy have at the moment. The quotes read to me as officials are opening things up but leaving enough wiggle room in comments about the future that they can point back to if a big flare up requires them to slow down or rollback.

neonate 6y ago

https://archive.md/j8vY9 https://archive.md/j8vY9

aazaa 6y ago

> Los Angeles County’s stay-at-home orders will “with all certainty” be extended for the next three months, county Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer acknowledged during a Board of Supervisors meeting on Tuesday. Oddly, the article never links to the order nor gives a summary. Here it is: http://file.lacounty.gov/SDSInter/lac/1070029_COVID-19_SaferAtHome_HealthOfficerOrder_20200319_Signed.pdf http://file.lacounty.gov/SDSInter/lac/1070029_COVID-19_Safer...

dmode 6y ago

This is a weird article. The headline is derived from a random board meeting and not even an official statement. It seems like the plan is to open up slowly

cpncrunch 6y ago

It's interesting to compare responses: UK police stopping people from sitting on Brighton beach: https://uk.news.yahoo.com/brighton-beach-police-checkpoint-lockdown-coronavirus-172845913.html https://uk.news.yahoo.com/brighton-beach-police-checkpoint-l... LA saying you can go to the beach, but you're not allowed to sit down or take an umbrella: https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-05-12/coronavirus-beaches-reopen-los-angeles-county-move-toward-new-normal https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-05-12/coronavi... In Vancouver people are flocking to the beach, but mostly following social distancing, and BC's chief health officer is fine with that (she has said in the past that people should get outside, as the risk of catching the virus while walking past someone outside is infinitessimal): https://bc.ctvnews.ca/just-how-crowded-are-b-c-beaches-pictures-highlight-how-perspectives-can-mislead-1.4935162 https://bc.ctvnews.ca/just-how-crowded-are-b-c-beaches-pictu... I think BC's response is the only one that is based on science, logic and reason, whereas the UK, San Francisco and LA seem to be having a more extreme lockdown that isn't really based on any kind of logic and is just going to piss people off and negatively affect mental health.