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Italy and South Korea virus outbreaks reveal disparity in deaths and tactics
- joe_the_user 7y agoIt's been making the argument that Korea's aggressive testing has allowed them greater control over the epidemic. Of course, there are a variety of other factors at work. Italy is the second "oldest" country in the world after Japan so Coronavirus infections just would be more deadly there. Also a lot of the Korean infections were confined to a single city in Korea (though the Italian infections also had an epicenter).
- jacquesm 7y agoKorea had people actively (hard to believe, I know) making things much worse. But they didn't downplay it for the first two weeks after the virus took hold. With these exponential issues time is everything.
- enitihas 7y agoYup, Korea's Patient #31 made things a lot worse, or else they would be doing much better right now.
- dominotw 7y agooh now I am .curious what that person did?
- __s 7y agoWent to church. Twice.
- gnulinux 7y agoWould you be able to explain what did they do?
- Riseed 7y ago"Of the 152 cases [article dated Feb 21] that have been found in the city, the majority have been linked to a [church], where Patient 31, a woman said to be in her 60s, is known to have attended at least four services before being diagnosed." https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/coronavirus-south-korea-cult-daegu-patient-31-doomsday-church-jesus-a9349131.html https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/coronavirus-so...
- endogui 7y agoAs of last night the number of cult-linked cases was "more than half". So > 3500. It turns out that in addition to worship services teice per week a lot of the cult members save money by living together. So even though worship has been stopped for nearly a month, new cult cases are still being reported.
- enitihas 7y agoWent to two massive church gatherings while advised to isolate, gatherings with 1000 people.
- gnulinux 7y agoI'm curious if something like this can be considered criminal. What if the mortality rate was higher? If the mortality rate was 100%, ethically would this be murder?
- SpicyLemonZest 7y agoIt can be. There's a criminal investigation of the cult's leadership ongoing.
- 1-6 7y agoIt's not really a church. They're a secretive society of church corrupters spreading false teachings.
- dceddia 7y agoFor others wondering about the story behind Patient 31, here’s an article with a timeline: https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-SOUTHKOREA-CLUSTERS/0100B5G33SB/index.html https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-SOUTHKOREA-CLUSTER...
- magicsmoke 7y agoIf Italy is the second oldest country in the world after Japan, how do they have 800 deaths compared to 16 in Japan? Something about those numbers seems off. Is it because Japan's elderly population tend to live in rural areas compared to Italy's or something else societally related?
- DyslexicAtheist 7y agomeh. I've been married to a Japanese for over 2 decades now, and lived in Tokyo for many years including when Fukushima happened. I wouldn't trust Japanese politicians with their reported numbers any more as I'd trust China or the US. There is one difference in Japan to Italy that might explain the lower infection rates: it's socially accepted to wear face masks (not only since covid but since the 90ies actually!)
- magicsmoke 7y agoEven if the numbers aren't reliable, reports of Japanese intensive care units being overrun aren't easy to hide, but Japanese hospitals don't seem to be under the same pressure as hospitals in Italy. Making mask wearing more acceptable might be a cultural adjustment humanity has to make as we become more urbanized and globalized if it'll help reduce the severity of disease transmission. Looks like Japan's stumbled onto a very useful societal adaptation.
- Aeolun 7y agoJapan has a lot of intensive care units. I guess it comes with having a generally older population.
- tooltalk 7y agobut not compared to other developed countries (except England): [1] [2] Germany 3.7 24.6 France 3.3 9.3 England 2.7 3.3 USA 2.4 20 Canada 2.4 13.5 Japan 2.2 4 to 5 1. Ratio of physicians to patients (per 1,000 population) 2. Number of ICU beds (per 100,000 population)
- swasheck 7y agoage is correlated, not causal. there are simply too many other factors. a generally compliant national attitude, combined with aggressive testing, and community-orientation probably had as much to do with south korea's success so far.
- tpush 7y ago> Italy is the second "oldest" country in the world after Japan [..] By median age Germany is actually older than Italy, though. Not sure how age really correlates here.
- btilly 7y agoPer https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-se... the number of deaths is very strongly correlated with how many are 70+. Median and average don't matter. Density of senior citizens does.
- enitihas 7y agoJust curious, does anybody know how did Japan manage to do so well, inspite of a very old population. Also what does HN think is the better place to be right now? A mega city or a small village?
- gnulinux 7y agoMy guess is large city: possibly better health services, possibly higher priority if supply lines are affected. I don't think population is a big factor as long as you isolate yourself, since even in a small village, if someone is infected, it'll eventually get to you if you're exposed. Not an educated guess though.
- black6 7y agoA small village/town; away from the urban craziness; where you can walk over to your neighbor’s to ask for a pound of dried beans because the just-in-time retail model and cascading supply-chain effects means your local grocery store shelves have been emptied of the staples.
- wott 7y ago> A small village/town; away from the urban craziness; Considering the fact that we both were downvoted, that's not the answer they want to hear on this forum. In a way, it was to be expected, since the majority usually praise density each time an urbanisation thread comes up and consider metropolitan concentration equals progress.
- joe_the_user 7y agoItaly's health care system has been overwhelmed - there aren't enough ventilators available for the people who need ventilators to survive and there are now a lot of them. Italy's aging population has increased the proportion of people needing ventilators and the infection rate increases the total number. Moreover, Italy's total actual infection is likely higher than the figures due to Italy's failure to test and control the situation. So the true fatality ratio is probably lower but hardly gives much comfort.
- 7y ago
- 1-6 7y agoS. Korea is very interconnected as a society. Technology does have a role but people are generally receptive of personal information being collected and used. For example, in order to hand out the proper number of masks, they have APIs which allows a database to inventory pharmacy mask handouts. In the face of a crisis, are Koreans forfeiting their privacy or are they trying to curb a bad situation? Americans would definitely not tolerate any info sharing and now there are strict laws against information collection.
- swasheck 7y agoYes. They're generally quite compliant and community-oriented as well. If the health minister says the best way to slow this is to stay inside, then generally they'll stay inside. Meanwhile, I have friends who are giving the middle finger to caution and are heading off on their flights for spring break - all for the privilege of being carriers.
- tomerico 7y agoItaly has an older population, hence more susceptible to deaths and spreading of the virus: - Average age of death due to Coronavirus in Italy is 82 [1] - In Italy, 3.65% of the population is 80 or older [2]. - In Korea, 1.75% of the population is 80 or older [3] [1] https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/covid-19-infografica_eng.pdf https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/covid-19... [2] https://www.populationpyramid.net/italy/2019/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/italy/2019/ [3] https://www.populationpyramid.net/republic-of-korea/2019/ https://www.populationpyramid.net/republic-of-korea/2019/
- T-A 7y ago3.65% / 1.75% ~ 2.09, so the difference in age profile might explain a factor 2 in the mortality ratio of Italy vs South Korea. The actual ratio is currently 7.9: 827 out of 12462 cases in Italy (6.6%), 66 out of 7869 cases in South Korea (0.84%).
- rwcarlsen 7y agoMaybe co-morbidities or general health per age is better in S. Korea.
- UncleOxidant 7y agoIt's all the kimchi.
- Ghjklov 7y agoHow long can the virus survive in a container of kimchi? I truly would like to know.
- skmurphy 7y agoIf you factor in collapse of medical services -- Italy ran out of ventilators / ICU beds--the gap becomes clearer. You have to look at over 60 as more likely to be hospitalized, putting strain on medical system.
- ryuukk_ 7y agoSK is american's dog, so they hide/fake data
- 2019-nCoV 7y agoThis outbreak is a litmus test for the competence of countries. It's already shone a bright light on the fragility of global supply lines, cheap travel and open borders. These are the aspects of life most likely to change after this is all over.
- marcinzm 7y ago>These are the aspects of life most likely to change after this is all over. People will forget about this in a year and go back to life like it's always been. Short term convenience trumps everything except short term negative consequences.
- Der_Einzige 7y agoNot for something this big, and for something that won't go away for 18 months MINIMUM
- BlargMcLarg 7y agoSometimes, I wonder if even that last part is the case. A lot of people do absolutely insane things for short term convenience.
- landryraccoon 7y agoNo. I remember 9/11, and this feels worse. The world won’t be the same for a decade. Are you too young to remember when you could just walk straight onto a plane without being searched? Those days never came back.
- mongol 7y agoI think more of the 2004 tsunami.
- marcinzm 7y agoI remember 9/11, saw the second plane hit with my own eyes. Other than airports and flying being more inconvenient nothing fundamental really changed as I saw it. People still traveled, people still flew and so on. Now you just budget an extra hour before a flight.
- starpilot 7y agoKorea is doing some robotic testing of the samples: > Rather than a human mixing the solutions, the samples are instead put into a diagnostic machine. Inside the machine, a robot arm pipettes the solution and mixes the liquids on a number of tests at once. According to Chun, this method takes only four hours to test samples from 94 patients -- four times faster than the manual method. It also reduces the risk of human error or contamination. https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/12/asia/coronavirus-south-korea-testing-intl-hnk/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/12/asia/coronavirus-south-korea-...
- makomk 7y agoI think a lot of places are probably using automated testing machines. Apparently, Public Health England has been operating theirs 24/7 after the staff go home to keep up with the incoming samples, and that's one reason why results take a lot more than 4 hours.
- gnicholas 7y agoMy understanding is that the epicenter in Korea was a church whose audience skews young, which has affected the mortality rate there. Basically, if you have a bunch of young people get it, your mortality rate will look lower than if it spread through an older segment of the population.
- gHosts 7y agoReminder for those in despair... It is merely enough to make the r0 after containment measures less than 1. Then the problem will eventually go away. As someone said, social distancing measures to work must be done when it seems to be overreacting. And if they work, it will seem as if we overreacted.
- dsjoerg 7y agoYour last line is the super important point, occurred to me today as well. If we beat this thing with social distancing, idiots will say "See! There was no reason to panic!"
- Tyrek 7y agoand what if it died down due factors other than social distancing? You're positing an irrefutable claim which is sloppy logic.
- RealityVoid 7y agoThe claim is not that if it dies down after social distancing, therefore social distancing was to blame, but that if it were to _really_ die down due to it, the measures would seem like an over-reaction to a certain segment of the populace. I think that, while a bit presumptuous, will hold true.
- ceejayoz 7y agoGiven the different dates (and levels of aggressiveness) countries are enforcing social distancing, it should be quite refutable.
- orblivion 7y agoWhether it's social distancing or some other factor, the important point here I think is that it wouldn't have died down on its own. For you to look at the positive outcome alone and say "see, it wasn't a problem to begin with!" is just as irrefutable as to say it was the social distancing. So you have to use understanding of the disease, logic, data from other countries, etc, to come to your conclusion. (You ask an annoying, but fair and important question here. We shouldn't lose our skeptical mind.)
- JackRabbitSlim 7y agoTL;DR S. Korea traded privacy and freedom for security.
- 1-6 7y agoYou're absolutely right. It's been an ongoing part of day-to-day life for Koreans. Fortunately, things are pretty transparent and there aren't big businesses trying to monetize on this information (but this may change in a flash).
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- landryraccoon 7y agoIf that’s truly the case, privacy and freedom kind of need to step up their game. I feel like parts of asia are handling this much more responsibly than the US and Europe.
- rb808 7y ago> South Korea has since reported 67 deaths out of nearly 8,000 confirmed cases, after testing more than 222,000 people. In contrast, Italy has had 1,016 deaths and identified more than 15,000 cases after carrying out more than 73,000 tests on an unspecified number of people. Surely the testing is a huge factor. Test more people you'll find more people infected, so the fatality rate will get smaller. If you're like the US and test very few you get the huge fatality rates we saw in Washington. If you could quickly and accurately test everyone in the country today we would know how to isolate and the whole thing would be over very soon. Not having a reliable test makes this whole problem as bad as it is.
- js2 7y agoSingapore is probably doing as best as any country could hope to. https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/12/814522489/singapore-wins-praise-for-its-covid-19-strategy-the-u-s-does-not https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/12/8145224... Also, as an American, I'm embarrassed by my country's response and by how my president addresses the nation. PM Lee shows how you talk to your country: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3mYs1Uyx3c8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3mYs1Uyx3c8 His original address five weeks prior: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dExr76Wckr8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dExr76Wckr8
- blululu 7y agoI would be proud to vote for someone like this.
- mx24 7y agoLet’s not get carried away in our praise of Singapore’s leaders. Singapore is an authoritarian state and Lee is a part of the ruling family.
- quaquaqua1 7y agoFor all those interested in how Singapore can possibly be a duality of "sometimes good sometimes bad", just look at how Singapore treats its Malay population as second class citizens. For example, if a Singaporean Malay marries a Malaysian Malay, there is still a large chance their Permanent Residency application will be denied. This usually doesn't happen to someone who marries Han Chinese, of which Singapore is 70%.
- Diederich 7y agoI noticed something else that might be an interesting correlation: available "acute" hospital beds. I don't have time to do the full correlation, but here's the data: https://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?queryid=30183 https://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?queryid=30183 Select "Curative (acute) care beds" Scroll down to the Per 1000 population. Italy: 2.62 Korea (assuming South): 7.14 The list of countries in that table is a good bit shorter than the countries fighting Covid-19, but I think it might be illuminating. Can someone draw that up? Compare, perhaps, current death rate by country with available "Curative (acute) care beds" per 1000?
- ericd 7y agoShoot... United States: 2.44 Interestingly, that's 20% lower than in 2000 (3.04) At least Japan is in an OK spot, at 7.79
- microcolonel 7y ago> Interestingly, that's 20% lower than in 2000 (3.04) Almost the exact trend in Canada. I hope this is just a quirk of the data, because we would be screwed for this in 2000, and being at least 20% more screwed means we're extra screwed. In effect, it seems that in Canada have fewer overall hospital beds per capita than Italy has acute care beds. We are completely unprepared, and in terms of time, not far behind Italy.
- baxtr 7y agoThat is a big factor. And: available nursing staff. Beds aren't enough. You need the right people to operate a large number of patients at the same time.
- dx034 7y agoFrom what I read, medical equipment seems to be the bigger issue in parts of Italy right now. You can only convert beds to ICU if you have the right equipment. Nursing staff is obviously necessary but that doesn't appear to be the most limiting factor at the moment.
- dirtyid 7y agoS.Korea is also effectively an island - water 3 sides + sealed N.Korea border. I don't think it's useful comparing large interconnected EU countries response capabilities against Asian Tigers islands (Korea, Singapore, Taiwan) with deep collectivist cultural roots and large demographics that still remember living under centralized authoritarian rule. In the case of Singapore and China, still are. Italy has too much travel, old demographics and interconnected borders to respond the way Korea did. And we don't even know if Korea is out of the woods yet, they got more clusters recently.
- Fnoord 7y ago> [...] deep collectivist cultural roots and large demographics that still remember living under centralized authoritarian rule. In the case of Singapore and China, still are. From Singapore's Wikipedia page: > Freedom House ranks Singapore as "partly free" in its Freedom in the World report,[137] and The Economist Intelligence Unit ranks Singapore as a "flawed democracy", the second best rank of four, in its "Democracy Index" [1] Singapore is a flawed democracy, just like Hong Kong. Its unfair to mention it in the same breath as China which, according to the mentioned index, is Authoritarian. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index
- Aeolun 7y agoAnd unlike HK, at least Singapore might stay that way.
- dirtyid 7y agoIt's a valid comparison in the sense that both Singapore and Chinese governance structure allows extremely despotic interventions that other representative forms of governments cannot. The broad point that the countries that responded effectively so far either have the benefit of authoritarian mobilization capabilities or still have vast populations that experienced living under the shadow of authoritarian regimes. I don't think we'll see similar levels of compliance in the west, on top of actually having very difficult borders to police.
- empiricus 7y agoInteresting detail in the article: in Korea testing is free if referred by a doctor, or it is up to 140$ if you just want to be tested.
- Aeolun 7y agoHaving a fever, and enough money, I’d happily pay $140 for the peace of mind that comes with that test.
- scholia 7y agoAgreed, but unless you can self-isolate, it's not going to last very long. If you got tested weekly, the costs would soon mount up.....
- AnimalMuppet 7y agoI'd hope to not have a fever weekly.
- scholia 7y agoYou can be infected without having a fever. That's one of the problems with coronavirus. Knowing you have the virus won't save you, of course, but you will be able to react accordingly. That will include trying not to infect anyone else....
- cycop 7y agoInteresting theory here is the difference in treatments using Chloroquine & Zinc Treatment Combo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7F1cnWup9M&fbclid=IwAR0GU2SmuRA2MB2bJzBWJnDFQQbyFZWJMFi8Hj1YwCuRg4_ypXWgJHLV_4Y https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7F1cnWup9M&fbclid=IwAR0GU2S...
- BubRoss 7y agoIf it's just numbers, why not post a link to text or type it up instead of linking to a YouTube video
- haunter 7y agoI'm curious about the cultural differences. Physical contact, kiss on the cheek, is much more common in Italy than in Korea. That can play a huge factor.
- 1-6 7y agoKoreans rarely hold hands in friendship too. Shaking hands, etc. You bow instead. When you go on a date, you're lucky if you get to hold hands on the first date. Kissing in public? Unacceptable.
- Benmcdonald__ 7y agoContact and hand holding are common in public in Korea. The opposite of Japan
- baxtr 7y agoHow about Occam’s razor? A much easier explanation be we err on the number of infected people. Tests are one way to approximate the number of infections.
- enitihas 7y agoIs there any map of the spread within Italy (or any other country) region wise, so that one could see how effected different regions are, and how region wise quarantined have worked.
- roel_v 7y agoFrom a colleague of mine: http://www.risklayer.com/blog/Tracking%20Coronavirus%20at%20a%20subnational%20level/ http://www.risklayer.com/blog/Tracking%20Coronavirus%20at%20... .
- ragazzina 7y agoItalian regions and provinces (cases per 100k people) https://imgur.com/a/Psh1gZ4 https://imgur.com/a/Psh1gZ4
- neuronic 7y agoWon't the effect of quarantine have a 5-14 day delay, as in we must wait out one cycle of incubation period before we see a decline in new numbers?
- MrK93 7y agoI'm italian. Here is the most recent table https://www.open.online/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Dati-protezione-civile-12-marzo.png https://www.open.online/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Dati-prot...
- PeterStuer 7y agoThere's sooooo many lies being propagated by different governments on the true state of things. This afternoon I watched a live broadcast of parliament in which the minister of health claimed Belgium was doing far more extensive testing than any other country on earth. This at a time when standing instructions to medical personnel are to only test people that are already admitted to hospital because of severe pulmonary conditions. It is impossible to get a test under any other circumstance as all test request have to follow a central approvement procedure and non are approved barring these conditions. These outright lies are propagated by the political parties that are far more concerned with 'the economy' than with any public health. It is really saddening that his is going on.
- arcturus17 7y agoI've seen English politicians constantly boast on TV that they've caught it very early and they've done better than anyone in the world...
- christoph 7y agoAs a UK citizen I am honestly terrified by my governments response and actions. In years to come I fear it’s going to be the textbook example of exactly how not to manage these types of situations.
- kjakm 7y agoI thought that - but then I watched today's press conference with the chief scientific adviser and chief medical adviser. They made some very good cases for not locking stuff down just yet. Primarily you need to consider the behaviour of people. This is going to go on for a while no matter what we do and if we lockdown people now, by the time we hit the peak they will be ready to give up and go outside again. We need to save the drastic measures for the peak in order to spread the damage out and make sure they are effective. I was previously critical of the government but honestly I think it makes a lot of sense. We need to consider the effectiveness of measures. Banning all flights into the US from Europe may sound like a grand plan but in reality it's not going to make a big dent and the economic damage is going to be huge. But it sounds good and in the current climate where we're being led by panic that's the plan people will like.
- fab1an 7y agoItaly got caught by surprise - they only found out that they had cases when a 38 year old (!) walked into an ER with advanced symptoms. Given that this age bracket is not commonly affected by these harsher symptoms it is clear that they had long ongoing community transmission which has now culminated in the current catastrophe. Germany is doing a bit better in this respect, it took them 1000 cases to 'get' the first death, showing that they have caught it very very early, due to their decentralized testiing system. That said, NPI must be ramped up significantly... The US is maybe the most troublesome target for this virus in the developed world. A healthcare system that works well for few rich cancer patients is the opposite of what you want for a disease like COVID19.
- bonzini 7y agoGermany is counting deaths differently. If you have heart issues and you die due to a heart attack you're not counted as a COVID death. In Italy you are as long as you test positive.
- fab1an 7y agoSorry, but this is bogus. EDIT: I do not mean to imply that Italy failed in any respect. Italy has one of the best HC systems in the world. The only reason this testing aspect worked out well for Germany is a very localized testing system. This type of 'federalism' is now a big issue though, as the gov can't simply ban events - only the states and communes can.
- Aeolun 7y agoThat might actually be more representative, as it indicates how many people without specific co-morbidities die.
- qayxc 7y ago> If you have heart issues and you die due to a heart attack you're not counted as a COVID death That doesn't seem to be the case - a man from Baden-Württemberg, who died earlier this month, was only tested positive AFTER he was already dead for a few days and counted towards the statistic. This means your general statement cannot be true.
- jancsika 7y agoEspecially relevant to HN: > This includes enforcing a law that grants the government wide authority to access data: CCTV footage, GPS tracking data from phones and cars, credit card transactions, immigration entry information, and other personal details of people confirmed to have an infectious disease. The authorities can then make some of this public, so anyone who may have been exposed can get themselves - or their friends and family members - tested.
- rconti 7y agoI wish we developed this kind of capability so that we could opt-in. Wouldn't it be a hell of a lot better than nothing if 50% of the population chose to download the app, allow it to access our location and allow us to input symptoms and status, receive recommendations, then when this is all over, delete it?
- jotm 7y agoExcept that last part won't happen. Like the PATRIOT act, it just keeps being extended. "For the greater good"
- ck2 7y agoUS is pretty much headed for the italian model thanks to almost non-existent leadership and people unwilling to isolate themselves, feel the right to go everywhere public while sick and cough/sneeze on everyone A month from now there are going to be so many people sick, hospitals overwhelmed and they won't be able to hide the death count anymore.
- xpressvideoz 7y agoWhat's interesting is, many South Koreans still believe the South Korean government is to blame. Perhaps no people are satisifed by their government? Usual counterarguments are like these: 1. The government should have prevented the entry of foreign nationals who recently visited China. It could buy us some time to develop treatment to the disease. To this day, no such ban has been imposed. 2. It should have prohibited masks from being exported in January. Many masks are suspected to be exported to China, which is believed to have contributed the scarceness of masks. Thankfully, the exportation is banned now. 3. The government shifts a little too much responsibility to the cult. In addition, some people blames Daegu, where the cult made thousands of people infected, for not handling the situation properly, to prevent the central government from being blamed. But after seeing the reactions of other countries, I'm starting to believe South Korea's actions were actually pretty good, at least relatively. What do you think?
- maallooc 7y agoCounterargument #1, #2 is due to the government's stance towards China. The government is trying to win back China's (so called) friendship, which was shattered when the U.S. deployed THAAD there. South Korea was able to handle this not because the government did good, but they experienced the MERS outbreak in 2015. Legislative measures to prevent outbreaks were made then. (plus the lesson of impeachment I guess)
- hokumguru 7y agoAnecdotally, my younger sister spent last year as a foreign exchange student in Modena (northern Italy). She explained that she's not surprised at all about the impressively quick spread there as nearly everyone she knew and interacted with greeted each other with two kisses on the cheek! I can't imagine how difficult it must be to contain a virus with such deep ingrained cultural norms.
- duxup 7y ago>Epidemiologists say it is not possible to compare the numbers directly. But some say the dramatically different outcomes point to an important insight: Don't compare these numbers....but if we do it anyway...
- cheriot 7y agoIt's clear countries that previously suffered from SARs and Swine Flu reacted to COVID-19 more effectively. South Korea's outbreak only even got that big because one person was a super spreader. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/31-south-korea-sudden-spike-coronavirus-cases-200303065953841.html https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/31-south-korea-sudden...
- techslave 7y agoIs there a site that comments on general news, has an educated audience and debunks spurious or dubious claims? I’d like to read my news through such portal. GN or WN (General, World) vs HN
- abraae 7y agoThe reason HN works (well one reason) is vigorous moderation and a stamping out of any mode of discourse apart from collegial intellectual discussion. As a result, we don't see memes or most of the other cheap humour you will find on e.g Reddit. It also seems to lead inevitably to people whining about downvotes, and to people whining about people whining about downvotes. HN is basically ideal for analytical, logic bound folks, and it works because the topics tends to be things that we can reason about and evaluate using logic. HN would not work if the topics were more general. Anything political for example seems to hardly lend itself to logical discussion. It's impossible to imagine a @dang enforcing civilised discourse on political discussions.
- AnimalMuppet 7y agoHN sometimes has good political discussions - not as often as one would hope, but more often than (I suspect) just about anywhere else. The rest of the time, yes, the political discussion turns into a steaming garbage pile, and deng has to kill it.
- stewbrew 7y agoIt's not just the number of cases that differ due to different testing regimes. Another difference is that Italy did some post-mortem testing to identify cases that were wrongly reported as flu etc. but were covid19. I assume they were included in the number of dead. I don't know if they did the same in South Korea. Numbers sometimes are difficult to compare.
- mister_hn 7y ago> They are testing hundreds of thousands of people for infections and tracking potential carriers like detectives, using cell phone and satellite technology. No but thanks. I do not want to allow a spy-state that might stay after the virus is sunset. Italy doesn't track people, as EU court ruled.
- byteface 7y agoHydroxychloroquine
- gcc_programmer 7y agoThe end of the EU.
- thinkingemote 7y agoIts not tests we should be counting but the number of people seriously sick and work back from that. If we know that a percentage of the population will get hospitalised we can get a good estimate of the actual infected population. I think that the UK estimates that 10K people have it in the UK for example. (Number may be wrong, but they have produced an estimate based on the number of sick who tested positive) The UK is basically saying, currently, to not expect to be tested, that you will get it and that they have good knowledge of the levels. They are testing sick people in hospitals only. They also say that advice is likely to change each week.
- timwaagh 7y agoI do not know how south korea managed to get as many test kits as they did, but Italy (and the rest of europe, the us, everyone except south korea and singapore) simply do not have enough testkits to be able to copy them. So instead we have to limit the spread by telling people to work from home. Also Italy found out they were infected much later than south korea. people estimate the virus had been spreading for weeks when they did.
- tenant 7y agoOne tangential snippet that I heard but I don't know if it is true or not is that in Northern Italy, there are whole garment factories that are staffed and possibly owned by Chinese purely so that they can be designated as Italian clothing manufacturers.
- tenant 7y agoTo my downvoters see here https://fashionista.com/2013/02/as-more-chinese-factories-pop-up-in-italy-what-does-it-mean-for-the-made-in-italy-label https://fashionista.com/2013/02/as-more-chinese-factories-po...