13 ms·

Get Real: no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big coronavirus epidemic

197 points by daddylonglegs 7y ago

Chemranch2020 7y ago
There are many solutions especially the O2 respiratory mask which is very effective against airborne particles and viruses. You can get it here. http://chemexoticshop.com/product/buy-o2-breath-mask-online/ http://chemexoticshop.com/product/buy-o2-breath-mask-online/
LinuxBender 7y ago
It is interesting to me that people are so laser focused on test kits and vaccines. In my less than humble opinion, people should focus on improving their immune system. You can reduce the load on your immune system by not eating sugar and reducing carbs as much as you can. We also know from history and science that every plague that killed people from respiratory virus infections was due to a lack of vitamin D3 and over production of the ACE2 enzyme. The virus quickly binds to ACE2 and their adaptive immune systems did not have the time to start producing enough anti-bodies. I do not understand why the CDC is not suggesting that folks increase their D3 intake, cut out sugar and most importantly, take a break from smoking which is know to increase ACE2. There are alternate methods of nicotine sources available. I mention this because a vaccine is only useful for known viral code. nCoV will have a family of hundreds of variants in no time. Boosting ones built in adaptive defenses will protect against all of the mutations.
- LinuxBender 7y ago
  Not sure why this is so taboo, I know there are molecular biologists on this site. Anyway, Zinc is the only thing that will slow the RNA transcoding process of the virus in your lungs, but getting enough zinc into cells is hard. You can use a prescription drug Chloroquine to improve the transport, but it has nasty side effects. Vitamin D3 isn't a vitamin at all. It is a precursor to the hormone 25 hydroxy. That is used by several hundred functions in your body, including your adaptive immune system, in conjunction with L-Glutamine to produce white blood cells and much more than I could cover on HN. The virus binds quite easily to ACE2, so you have to slow that down enough that your adaptive immune system can keep up. Smokers and obese people and eldery have the most ACE2 from lung inflammation. Some things to watch or look at CoV Map: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h... CoV Rates: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Mutations: https://nextstrain.org/ncov https://nextstrain.org/ncov MedCram: https://www.youtube.com/user/MEDCRAMvideos/videos https://www.youtube.com/user/MEDCRAMvideos/videos The mutations are probably the most interesting. I would be curious what company is going to cover all of them in a vaccine.
- malkia 7y ago
  as someone on low-carb I find this interresting, but any studies behind it?
  - wbg34 7y ago
    This was making the rounds a few days ago in my low carb FB group. I haven't looked into it too much, but it sounded intriguing. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/11/191115190327.htm https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/11/191115190327.h...
  - _jal 7y ago
    I'm sure if you check your spam folder or follow links from Twitter bots, you'll find some soon enough.
- hprotagonist 7y ago
  Cite every sentence above, please, or cut out the idle speculation; it's foolish at best. NPIs -- handwashing, avoiding close contact with people sneezing like mad, not touching your face -- are the only things that actually work right now that everyone can and should be doing.
  - francisofascii 7y ago
    It has been widely reported that CORVID-19 affects the lungs, and that smoking may play a role in the severity of symptoms. Also there have been plenty of studies linking high sugar diets with reduced immune response.
- AdmiralGinge 7y ago
  >most importantly, take a break from smoking which is know to increase ACE2 Not going to lie, I'm very very glad I quit smoking before this coronavirus business. I was down to just a vape by June last year and I quit that in December.
- herf 7y ago
  Here are three negative results (all randomized controlled trials) for Vitamin D supplementation during the winter: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2019.00065/full https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2019.0006... failed to show any effect on wintertime supplementation of D (using pre-registered criteria) http://www.vitaminedelft.org/files/art/ling2009.pdf http://www.vitaminedelft.org/files/art/ling2009.pdf "no benefit" https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlelanding/2014/fo/c4fo00371c/unauth#!divAbstract https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlelanding/2014/fo/c4fo0... "did not lower incidence of influenza"
  - LinuxBender 7y ago
    It would be no benefit to anyone that is not already deficient. [1] [1] - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6075634/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6075634/
  - belltaco 7y ago
    Here's a positive result. https://www.bmj.com/content/356/bmj.i6583 https://www.bmj.com/content/356/bmj.i6583 "Vitamin D supplementation was safe and it protected against acute respiratory tract infection overall. Patients who were very vitamin D deficient and those not receiving bolus doses experienced the most benefit."
    - herf 7y ago
      Good one (odds ratio=0.88), and it's generally low-risk.
- BlargMcLarg 7y ago
  I'm curious how this is the conclusion you made instead of becoming more macro-organized. People are getting more and more stressed (see burn-outs rising), affecting our immune systems. Most of us are still encouraged to go into work when we have a cold. Many could work from home, but are actively or passively stigmatized when attempting to do so. For all its draconian measures, China is showing them to be effective for the time being. In the same way, we could've rid ourselves of many pests, plagues and illnesses ages ago which a simple "get your immune system up bro" couldn't deal with.
- bilekas 7y ago
  > people should focus on improving their immune system Okay, but for those who cant, underlining conditions etc, what do you suggest ? This is the world we live in, and that kind of build up you're talking about that would fight off all these strains of virus' would take generations of active measures. In the meantime, I don't think it's a bad idea to develop vaccines and shots which will aid our immune system. Our body uses the memory DNA (or memory cells - Not a doctor) after getting chicken-pox so that we (usually) don't get it again. But the COVID strains vary so much it's a little pie-in-the sky right now to imagine naturally fighting all of them. Our best defense is our ability to maintain good hygiene in this generation. We know all about how these things spread, and that should be the primary focus for the every day to day person.
  - LinuxBender 7y ago
    Everyone will eventually get one of the mutations. [1] Maybe a vaccine will cover all of them some day. In the mean time, everyone, especially those with pre-exisiting conditions should be focusing on removing burdens from their immune system (sugar, carbs, anything that spikes insulin), getting a LOT of sleep, and ensuring they are not deficient in D3, Zinc, L-Glutamine, Magnesium, well, all the essential minerals, vitamins and enzymes. I have not had a vaccine since the 1990's and I have only noticeably had the flu twice (h1n1, h3n2) and even then it just made me gassy. I went home as a courtesy to my coworkers. I have not had a cold in 15 years. [1] - https://nextstrain.org/ncov https://nextstrain.org/ncov
m0zg 7y ago
Ctrl+F "remdesivir". No results in the article. Epic fail. There's really no cure for the Trump Derangement Syndrome, though.
- hprotagonist 7y ago
  I have met Derek Lowe personally. He's got 35 years in the game as a bench chemist working on theraputics and knows this world inside and out. What are your similarly long-term credentials that give you such definitive knowledge?
  - m0zg 7y ago
    ^ and he's still wrong. There are several drugs and vaccines undergoing trials as we speak, and being given to patients in China. At least two drugs, Remdesivir and Chloroquine have shown efficacy already. Chloroquine is a generic that costs a dollar a bucket and can be produced in any quantity.
    - WaltPurvis 7y ago
      These are antiviral drugs that may partially lessen the effects for some people who are already demonstrably sick (Remdesivir is administered intravenously to patients who are already hospitalized and is only in very first stage of initial trials). They will do very little to stop the spread of the virus. (Also, perhaps if you read the article instead of just doing Ctl-F for Remdesivir, you'd have noticed that he said he plans to discuss specific drugs in an upcoming post.)
    - empath75 7y ago
      There’s no guarantee any of those will work and none of them will be ready before it goes pandemic.
  - lazyjones 7y ago
    This kind of "appeal to authority" argument reminds me of the recent interview with an industry "veteran" (60 years experience in developing combustion engines) and professor where he condemned electric cars and claimed they will not help the climate. Being experienced doesn't mean you can't be foolish/dogmatic or simply wrong. And it doesn't always take an even more experienced researcher to prove someone wrong. I wish we would discuss more about the actual issues instead of belittling users' qualifications to speak about them.
crystaldev 7y ago
...but the girl at the dispensary told me oregano oil cures COVID-19 (because "it cures everything!"). Edit: From +4 to -4 and flagged, que serioso! This account will now self-destruct.
- eganist 7y ago
  You're telling me this https://i.imgur.com/hs9sEi3.png https://i.imgur.com/hs9sEi3.png is a thing? I was hopeful it was just a meme.
swsieber 7y ago
Most comments seemed to be responding to the title, which misses the point. The title is quite editorialized. The real point of the article is that there's no drug or vaccine in the works that will be able to prevent the impending U.S. epidemic, so don't pin your hopes on them. I'd go so far as to suggest a new title of "Get Real - Drugs and Vaccines won't Prevent a U.S. Epidemic".
- rolph 7y ago
  its too late to prevent an epidemic in most places there is no star trek solution that will suddenly prevent epidemic anywhere that is apparently free of virus for the time being. the virus is not so lethal as to justify suspension of safety and efficacy trials. the potential to kill far more people with a mistake than the virus would kill, is very real.
econcon 7y ago
Yesterday one friend's mom had respiratory failure and got hard - locked jaws. This was Coronavirus She was administered intravenous antibiotics and Cortisol After that she got bit better
- thenewnewguy 7y ago
  I have a hard time believing that both a doctor would administer antibiotics for coronaVIRUS and that antibiotics would be of any use there. Edit: Children comments are pointing out the antibiotics could be for secondary infections. Fair enough, but the parent comment's implication that the antibiotics helped with coronavirus recovery is what's problematic.
  - econcon 7y ago
    I had same reaction, it happened in Torino, Italy. I've no idea why I am being downvoted for reporting simply what she told me.
    - egdod 7y ago
      No doctor is dumb enough to give antibiotics for a virus.
      - econcon 7y ago
        They don't know it's Coronavirus tho, they didn't test for it. Calling it Corona is just my speculation based on who she worked with in the clinic where she's a nurse.
        ceejayoz 7y ago
        So "This was Coronavirus" was actually bullshit.
        econcon 7y ago
anticensor 7y ago
This is SARS type 2; please stop using COVID-19. > distinction between a disease caused by a specific virus and the virus that causes it The virus is also called SARS-CoV-2.
- SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
  I dunno, I think that one's on the scientists. Expecting the general public to maintain a nominal distinction between a disease caused by a specific virus and the virus that causes it isn't reasonable.
  - tomatocracy 7y ago
    The concept is well enough understood by the general public I think in the context of HIV/AIDS so I'm not sure why it couldn't be here too. I think it would be a useful concept for the general public to understand the distinction if there turn out to be significant numbers of asymptomatic but infectious people.
RcouF1uZ4gsC 7y ago
I know Derek Lowe is an expert. However, sometimes, experts think that because things have always been a certain way throughout their career, they will always be like that. Drug development has been very conservative especially in the US for the past several decades. The FDA is all about making sure they never have a thalidomide incident and would rather lose a lot of good drugs than approve a bad drug. This is the steady state. However, a global pandemic is more akin to wartime footing. During WWII design and production ramped up to an unprecedented degree. There is a possibility that Covid19 will spark such a global response.
- blobbers 7y ago
  `...would rather lose a lot of good drugs than approve a bad drug.` Thanks for saying this, and rightfully so! Approving a bad drug in the world where distribution channels are very well set up could have disastrous effects. We can point to things like the opioid crisis in the USA right now - a drug that is so addictive it should have never been put into use the way it was.
  - Chemranch2020 7y ago
    There are many solutions especially the O2 respiratory mask which is very effective against airborne particles and viruses. You can get it here. http://chemexoticshop.com/product/buy-o2-breath-mask-online/ http://chemexoticshop.com/product/buy-o2-breath-mask-online/
  - mhb 7y ago
    I don't understand the "rightfully so!" There is a real cost to not approving good drugs in order to avoid approving bad ones.
    - metalliqaz 7y ago
      of course there is, it's just a lesser cost than the cost of approving bad ones
      - 7y ago
shrubble 7y ago
Is it the case that SARS (of many years ago) had a vaccine developed for it, but it had too many side effects or was not effective enough to get past trials? And that while this virus is different it is similar in many respects... leading me to think that a vaccine may also be difficult to produce.
- koheripbal 7y ago
  By the time the SARS vaccine was nearly completed testing, the outbreak had burned out.
- daxorid 7y ago
  Yes, the SARS vaccine virtually guaranteed severe lung scarring if you were re-exposed to full-strength SARS: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0035421 https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal...
  - UncleOxidant 7y ago
    Would this also the case if someone who had SARS and recovered was re-exposed to SARS?
- allovernow 7y ago
  There was is one paper[0] where 4 candidates were tested on a number of animal species. In all but one variant, immunity was successfully conferred by the vaccine. However, in all successful cases, the vaccines triggered some sort of autoimmune response wherin upon exposure to the pathogen post vaccination, lung damage resulted[0]. Now I believe this has something to do with another nefarious speculated property of SARS-CoV-2: Antibody Dependent Enhancement (ADE). Can't find the original source but here[1] researchers also speculate about ADE. The gist is that your antibodies, instead of neutralizing the virus, actually enhance its ability to enter your cells[2]. I don't know if this is confirmed, but multiple sources have made the suggestion. If this is the case, typical vaccines actually may be dangerous. Now I'm not not an expert but I believe there is a way to create a vaccine which avoids ADE, but AFAIK that hasn't been done for the previous SARS strain. This was a problem with MERS too btw. 0. https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0035421 https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal... Credit to user daxorid for the link. 1. https://www.virosin.org/fileZGBDX/journal/article/vs/newcreate/0216.pdf https://www.virosin.org/fileZGBDX/journal/article/vs/newcrea... 2. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhanceme...
tonmoy 7y ago
I have personal reasons to hate the current administration. However, even an incompetent government is better than no government during times like these. I hope we can stay united in our plight against the common enemy.
ribble 7y ago
> But here come some politics: Trump hardly understands any subjects whatsoever, while at the same time claiming vast areas of expertise. fuck. you.
bhanhfo 7y ago
Scientific agreement seems to be that ~60-70% of the population will get infected. It is just not sure if within months or (hopefully!) years. And no drugs within at least one year. Edit: Source => Original in German here: https://www.sueddeutsche.de/gesundheit/krankheiten-experte-erwartet-60-bis-70-prozent-infizierte-in-deutschland-dpa.urn-newsml-dpa-com-20090101-200228-99-108884 https://www.sueddeutsche.de/gesundheit/krankheiten-experte-e... Express UK translated it here: https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1249963/Coronavirus-news-COVID19-worse-than-Spanish-Flu-latest-coronavirus-update https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1249963/Coronavirus-n... The guy interview is Prof. Drosten. He is the co-discoverer of the SARS virus, and is one of the top 10 guys in this field. PS: Sorry for not adding the source right away.
- cactus2093 7y ago
  Sources? It seems far too early and there isn't enough reliable observational data, much less scientific trial data, available for broad "scientific agreement". Although obviously the accuracy of China's data is in question, it's promising that they were able to get the reproduction rate below 1 pretty quickly. And within Wuhan itself the spreading seems to have slowed with something like 0.6% of the population of 11 million infected. Not to mention in China outside of Wuhan/Hubei, which have conditions much more similar to most of the rest of the world in having some advanced warning of the virus, the spread seems also to have slowed down at a much much lower infection rate. Based on this information it's not clear to me where the "40-70% of the world getting infected" idea is coming from, though I've seen a few headlines reporting that too.
  - bhanhfo 7y ago
    Source added in my post above. The number comes from this guy: https://www.charite.de/en/service/en_person_detail/person/address_detail/drosten-3/ https://www.charite.de/en/service/en_person_detail/person/ad...
  - dwild 7y ago
    Wuhan is your reference? China too? Aren't they putting pretty severe quarantine in Wuhan? Aren't their quarantine outside of Wuhan still quite strong? The Diamond Princess had a quarantine, and yet the infection reached 706 peoples, in a boat with 3711 peoples. Sure that's "only" 20%, but that seems to me like 40% isn't that far out if we are considering that it's hard to quarantine a whole country. The timeframe is important too, as long as we don't have developed any vaccine, the only way to develop immunity is by being infected... thus if the virus spread that easily, it's only a question of when will we reach 40-70%, not if.
cryoshon 7y ago
a vaccine might be 18 months away, if we're lucky and divert resources to the effort. if we're unlucky, it could be four to five years or even longer. remember, there's no guarantee that we can even make a vaccine for any arbitrary viral disease. we can't do nothing while we wait for a vaccine. placeholder antiviral therapies are also a non-starter. we can't manufacture the drugs at the scale we need them unless we massively expand our production capabilities, and that takes time as well as money. --- as things stand currently, there has been no substantive response by the US federal government to the coronavirus which will lead to the lessening of infections or mortality. china and south korea both explicitly stated that they were transitioning to wartime footing to combat the virus. we need to follow in their footsteps. we need billions of dollars in spending, suspension of normal daily life, and requisitioning of the necessary resources from private entities if needed. and we need to do this today. now. this afternoon. preferably before 5 PM. this isn't a problem to be left until tomorrow. yet we're still here, conducting life as normal as the infection reaches the exponential part of its spread. people are still going to work, going to church, and riding the subway. hospitals and prisons don't have any special measures in place. we aren't even testing people after weeks of knowing that we are at risk for local transmissison. we have no extra resources queued up. as of today, our congress can't even agree to pass a funding bill to combat the disease. we have no leadership, and it's going to kill quite a few people. if you think i'm being "alarmist", please revisit my here comment in six months, when we'll have a clearer idea of the death toll. i don't know if this virus will kill a million americans, or only a few hundred. either way, if we act with more vigor over the last few weeks, i can say with confidence that more people will live.
- theseadroid 7y ago
  I totally agree with you. >china and south korea both explicitly stated that they were transitioning to wartime footing to combat the virus. we need to follow in their footsteps. we need billions of dollars in spending, suspension of normal daily life, and requisitioning of the necessary resources from private entities if needed. and we need to do this today. now. this afternoon. preferably before 5 PM. this isn't a problem to be left until tomorrow. This won't happen in North America. As a Chinese who reads Chinese and English news sources everyday, it appears while China is very heavy handed in censorship for anything coronavirus related, in NA there is too much misinformation floating around, to the point that people cannot agree on anything. Specifically western media have been producing outrage porn for clicks around Covid 19 for a while, resulting in much misinformation on how China's measurements in combatting the virus are inhumane and in violation of human rights, that even talking about those options will bring so much negativity into the discussion. Apparently inaction and incapability of the government and every one only takes care of themselves are not human right violation. Even we don't have a cure, slowing down the spread is a huge win in for the healthcare system as a whole.[1] 1. https://www.vox.com/2020/3/2/21161067/coronavirus-covid19-china https://www.vox.com/2020/3/2/21161067/coronavirus-covid19-ch...
kiterunner2346 7y ago
The key may not be a vaccine but simply staying alive. Covid-19 kills with a "cytokine storm": cytochine release syndrome(cytokine storm): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytokine_release_syndrome https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytokine_release_syndrome Article discussing coronavirus et al and cytochine storm: "Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China" https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6... From the article: "In view of the high amount of cytokines induced by SARS-CoV,22, 24 MERS-CoV,25, 26 and 2019-nCoV infections, corticosteroids were used frequently for treatment of patients with severe illness, for possible benefit by reducing inflammatory-induced lung injury. However, current evidence in patients with SARS and MERS suggests that receiving corticosteroids did not have an effect on mortality, but rather delayed viral clearance.27, 28, 29 Therefore, corticosteroids should not be routinely given systemically, according to WHO interim guidance." Curcumin has been shown to suppress the cytokine storm. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25600522/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25600522/ Curcumin is found in the spice turmeric and is available in most grocery stores. Today you can buy a pound of turmeric powder for ~$6. You can buy curcumin tablets in the health & fitness section. Other anti-inflammatory agents (NSAIDS(aspirin, buprofen, naproxen),prednisone, etc.) are not as effective. In India children are often given a daily teaspoon of turmeric (curcumin) in milk or water. India suffered much lower SARS deaths (there are confounding factors, e.g. India's high summer heat). I expect the same to happen with covid-19.
- empath75 7y ago
  I haven’t seen anyone say it kills with a cytokine storm — spanish flu did that.
  - kiterunner2346 7y ago
    Lancet Article(February 22, 2020): "Reducing mortality from 2019-nCoV: host-directed therapies should be an option" https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30305-6/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6... from the article: "In most moribund patients, 2019-nCoV infection is also associated with a cytokine storm, which is characterised by increased plasma concentrations of interleukins 2, 7, and 10, ..."
howmayiannoyyou 7y ago
Lowe was a proponent of intravenous vitamin C under a specific set of circumstances for immune response during oncology (https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/03/02/vitamin-c-and-immuno-oncology https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/03/02/vi...), and in China and Korea claims are being made that similar intravenous (not oral therapy) has positive results: (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6-elCYFhqJs&feature=emb_logo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6-elCYFhqJs&feature=emb_logo) and (https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04264533 https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04264533) It would be ironic if the most overhyped supplement of all time had efficacy here.
daddylonglegs 7y ago
I've edited the sub-title (that I added) from "no COVID-19 drug or vaccine in the short term" to "no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big coronavirus epidemic." The author or magazine nailed their colours to the mast with the title "Get Real," so I think that should stay in the title. Lowe doesn't use "COVID-19" or "SARS-CoV-2" or "nCov" in the article so I've used "coronavirus epidemic." I did not expect the title detract from the discussion to the extent that it has, sorry.
the_af 7y ago
I see a lot of panicky comments, both in real life and in this very thread. I know COVID19 is different from a regular flu, but is it more serious? "Regular" flu is very contagious and kills lots of people every year. It's ok to study coronavirus and to try to find ways to effectively manage it, combat it or prevent the disease -- but why are we panicking? Nobody panics about the flu and it's proven to be fatal for a lot of people every year. Why the panic with coronavirus, why are people in this very thread worrying about "the death toll"? Is there any projection that the death toll is going to be higher than usual for a flu? For what it's worth, my doctor told me "it's like a flu, don't worry". A doctor friend of mine told me the same.
- JoeAltmaier 7y ago
  Anecdotal reporting is useless. Read some more, and stop spreading false sense of security. That could actually get somebody killed.
  - the_af 7y ago
    Not sure if you're accusing me of something, but just in case: I'm not spreading a false sense of security. I do think prophylaxis and management of the disease is urgent. I think the same of the flu. People at risk tend to die from these diseases. I think health systems of every country should deal with the infection, as well as manage seasonal flu. If anything, I'm asking why people worry more about this than about regular flu, when we know the flu can be deadly. I'm asking for data, projections, etc. Do we know it's more serious? If so, the data is welcome. As usual, judging by the media, coronavirus is the apocalypsis and journalists are playing this up for all it's worth. Some people already told me the measured death rate is already higher than regular flu. That's data I can understand. I'd like to know how this compares with initial death rate of any new type of flu, before it stabilizes itself.
    - chrisco255 7y ago
      Good stats on number of cases, deaths, recoveries etc: https://thewuhanvirus.com/ https://thewuhanvirus.com/ Comparisons to H1N1 and SARS included.
aazaa 7y ago
For those suggesting that a COVID-19 vaccine can somehow be fast tracked, consider what happens if something goes wrong during deployment to the population. The US has an active, very vocal anti-vax community. They've been growing and gaining ground for decades. The first sign of trouble of any kind with a new COVID-19 vaccine would result in a backlash of biblical proportions. It could be so strong as to derail any attempt at a follower. For this reason, I expect to see two things: 1. withering pressure from the current administration to cut corners on testing any new vaccine 2. a good chance for disastrous consequences resulting from (1)
- JoeAltmaier 7y ago
  Vs what? a million dead? They might have some opinion on whether its worth risking a black eye for a quick vaccine.
  - kingbirdy 7y ago
    I believe OPs point is about considering the longer term effects. If we prevent a million Covid-19 deaths with a rushed vaccine, but the vaccine kills even a few people and brings anti-vaxx into full swing and we get a nationwide diphtheria outbreak instead, are we really coming out ahead?
    - koheripbal 7y ago
      Then again, the longer we wait to deploy a vaccine, the more likely a novel strain will emerge and make itself endemic and seasonal like the flu, in need of yearly vaccinations and persistently high CFR.
    - mellavora 7y ago
      And as evidence, there are numerous known bad side effects from prior rushed vaccines. The risk is very real.
    - carapace 7y ago
      I think a much more likely scenario in the event of a bad plague would be that angry mobs will put anti-vaxxers up against the wall and shoot them. (I am NOT advocating this! Looking over history that seems to me to be a more likely reaction.)
partingshots 7y ago
Given that this is so similar to the previous SARS epidemic, how did that whole thing eventually end? Was a vaccine created? Did it just naturally fizzle out?
- Dirlewanger 7y ago
  Summer hit the Northern Hemisphere.
  - partingshots 7y ago
    So how likely is it that when summer comes the same will happen with the current coronavirus epidemic?
    - ars 7y ago
      It's summer in Brazil, and other southern countries, so we can just watch them and see.
  - ceejayoz 7y ago
    This theory is silly. SARS spread in Singapore, where the average high temperature stays at 87-90 degrees twelve months out of the year. They don't have a winter/summer cycle. SARS was stopped because infectious people were readily identifiable by checking for a fever.
- erentz 7y ago
  SARS, while more deadly, was harder to spread, so in the end it was able to be contained.
anu7df 7y ago
Yes. It is worse than a regular flu. But, if you look at statistics from S. Korea, the only country with a substantial infection and trust worthy numbers (as in they test heavily), the death rate is around 0.6% overall. So not the end of the world, but nothing to be complacent about either. If the White house will get out of the way and let the system work, we may still have time to mitigate the worst here in the USA. But of course, we don't even want to cancel SXSW. What more needs to be said? <insert Darwin thumbs up gif > Addition: No, I "trust" the reported numbers from Italy. I think they are missing a lot of mild cases that are not being reported or tested. When I checked a few days ago, it looked like of the tests that South Korea ran, only 5% or so were positive. So, their infected numbers are probably more accurate. The death rate may still be higher, because we don't know how many in the infected population as of today will recover. One could for example calculate the death rate as [Number_of_deaths.today]/[Number_infected.x_days_ago] I don't really know the "x" to use in this circumstance, but just using 7 days (since a lot of deaths occurred in 7-9 days from positive detection), the death rate may be about a factor of 2 higher. So about 1% overall. I have been looking at so many different sources in the last few days, I can't seem to find the sites where I got the numbers for the above calculations from. So I might be off by a bit.
- pier25 7y ago
  You don't trust Italy with their numbers? Last time I checked it was around 3% there. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/coronavirus-deaths-china-cases-slow-live-updates-200303003539680.html https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/coronavirus-deaths-ch...
  - wooly_bully 7y ago
    In the linked figure in the article, the SK tests have about 5x more per million people so their denominator is likely a better idea of the true number of cases.
    - pier25 7y ago
      I don't disagree with the idea that the total number of cases is unreported but the WHO said yesterday it's actually 3.4% globally. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who-says-coronavirus-death-rate-is-3point4percent-globally-higher-than-previously-thought.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who-says-coronavirus-death-r...
haunter 7y ago
So some comments here say 60-70% global infection [0] and 3-4% death rate [1]. Is this really possible? That would be like ~150 million deaths. 0, https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22485485 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22485485 1, https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22485692 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22485692
- katmannthree 7y ago
  It could be worse than that once the hospitals are overloaded / out of equipment needed for artificial respiration. From the numbers coming out of China ~20% of cases are "serious," ~5% "critical."
- lm28469 7y ago
  "if" we get to 70% of the world contaminated and "if" the death rate really is that high globally then yes the maths checks out. But that's already a lot of "ifs".
- bcrosby95 7y ago
  Outcome of critical cases is heavily reliant upon whether the medical system can handle the number of infected. If someone requires a ventilator and you're out of ventilators they're kinda fucked. There's also evidence that lots of people show little to no symptoms. There's probably a large number of people that simply don't know they had it. Which is both good and bad. If we manage to keep it from spreading too far too fast, from the variety of studies I've seen then anywhere from .5% to 1% is probably more realistic. But if we don't, expect something higher. This is why waiting for "enough" people to die as evidence of severity, then responding is a poor response. FWIW the Spanish Flu infected 27% of the world's population. 60-70% seems really high.
  - harambaebae69 7y ago
    Commercial aviation had barely begun when the Spanish Flu occurred, and the world was nowhere near as connected.
mellavora 7y ago
Looking at this thread as an interesting datapoint. Typically HN is thoughtful, well reasoned, and well informed. This thread is not holding that same level. Wonder what this says about the level of concern over this bug.
- iamatworknow 7y ago
  This has been true of every HN thread in the past week or two relating to COVID-19. The typical objectivity you see among the usual audience has disappeared.
  - mellavora 7y ago
    ok, so I'm not the only person seeing this. Concerning. Thanks for sharing.
- s9w 7y ago
  I read on so many different places on the internet, and I have no idea where this is going. HN is very panicky, 4chan is the same or really in the post-apocalyptic stage. Reddit is extremely conservative / non-panicky (maybe because anything else gets banned). Newspapers and traditional media are all over the place with their panic levels. I don't know what to make of this.
- carapace 7y ago
  It says approximately nothing unless you're somehow tracking individual users' behavior over time. - - - - Don't panic. Stay home and encourage others to stay home. We can't stop the virus (yet) but we can slow it down and buy time. "The only way to fight a pandemic is decency." (I'll link to the source if I can find it, I think it was an article in the Atlantic that went by here on HN this week.)
  - mellavora 7y ago
    Yes, this is the time for increased concern for your neighbors. And yes, avoidance behaviors will dramatically slow community spread.
elihu 7y ago
To be fair, it's possible that we discover that an existing, already-approved drug or treatment is more effective at reducing the death rate of people experiencing the worst symptoms than what we're doing now. A vaccine is probably very far away, though.
ouid 7y ago
This post has 164 points and 204 comments in 3 hours, and is on the second page? Do I fundamentally misunderstand how this works?
- tonmoy 7y ago
  Yes, HN heavily penalizes posts with votes lower than number of comments
  - ouid 7y ago
    alright, thanks.
- haileris 7y ago
  Check out hckrnews, It's Hacker News but sorted chronologically.
  - phendrenad2 7y ago
    How does this differ from the "new" link on vanilla HN?
    - hackeerTwo 7y ago
      just HN, this is not javascript
- senordevnyc 7y ago
  Virtually every COVID-19 story here for the last month has suffered the same fate. I suspect there’s a dedicated group of users here who think this is no big deal and are flagging every mention of it.

197 points by daddylonglegs 7y ago

Chemranch2020 7y ago

There are many solutions especially the O2 respiratory mask which is very effective against airborne particles and viruses. You can get it here. http://chemexoticshop.com/product/buy-o2-breath-mask-online/ http://chemexoticshop.com/product/buy-o2-breath-mask-online/

LinuxBender 7y ago

It is interesting to me that people are so laser focused on test kits and vaccines. In my less than humble opinion, people should focus on improving their immune system. You can reduce the load on your immune system by not eating sugar and reducing carbs as much as you can. We also know from history and science that every plague that killed people from respiratory virus infections was due to a lack of vitamin D3 and over production of the ACE2 enzyme. The virus quickly binds to ACE2 and their adaptive immune systems did not have the time to start producing enough anti-bodies. I do not understand why the CDC is not suggesting that folks increase their D3 intake, cut out sugar and most importantly, take a break from smoking which is know to increase ACE2. There are alternate methods of nicotine sources available. I mention this because a vaccine is only useful for known viral code. nCoV will have a family of hundreds of variants in no time. Boosting ones built in adaptive defenses will protect against all of the mutations.

LinuxBender 7y ago
Not sure why this is so taboo, I know there are molecular biologists on this site. Anyway, Zinc is the only thing that will slow the RNA transcoding process of the virus in your lungs, but getting enough zinc into cells is hard. You can use a prescription drug Chloroquine to improve the transport, but it has nasty side effects. Vitamin D3 isn't a vitamin at all. It is a precursor to the hormone 25 hydroxy. That is used by several hundred functions in your body, including your adaptive immune system, in conjunction with L-Glutamine to produce white blood cells and much more than I could cover on HN. The virus binds quite easily to ACE2, so you have to slow that down enough that your adaptive immune system can keep up. Smokers and obese people and eldery have the most ACE2 from lung inflammation. Some things to watch or look at CoV Map: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h... CoV Rates: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Mutations: https://nextstrain.org/ncov https://nextstrain.org/ncov MedCram: https://www.youtube.com/user/MEDCRAMvideos/videos https://www.youtube.com/user/MEDCRAMvideos/videos The mutations are probably the most interesting. I would be curious what company is going to cover all of them in a vaccine.
malkia 7y ago
as someone on low-carb I find this interresting, but any studies behind it?
- wbg34 7y ago
  This was making the rounds a few days ago in my low carb FB group. I haven't looked into it too much, but it sounded intriguing. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/11/191115190327.htm https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/11/191115190327.h...
- _jal 7y ago
  I'm sure if you check your spam folder or follow links from Twitter bots, you'll find some soon enough.
hprotagonist 7y ago
Cite every sentence above, please, or cut out the idle speculation; it's foolish at best. NPIs -- handwashing, avoiding close contact with people sneezing like mad, not touching your face -- are the only things that actually work right now that everyone can and should be doing.
- francisofascii 7y ago
  It has been widely reported that CORVID-19 affects the lungs, and that smoking may play a role in the severity of symptoms. Also there have been plenty of studies linking high sugar diets with reduced immune response.
AdmiralGinge 7y ago
>most importantly, take a break from smoking which is know to increase ACE2 Not going to lie, I'm very very glad I quit smoking before this coronavirus business. I was down to just a vape by June last year and I quit that in December.
herf 7y ago
Here are three negative results (all randomized controlled trials) for Vitamin D supplementation during the winter: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2019.00065/full https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2019.0006... failed to show any effect on wintertime supplementation of D (using pre-registered criteria) http://www.vitaminedelft.org/files/art/ling2009.pdf http://www.vitaminedelft.org/files/art/ling2009.pdf "no benefit" https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlelanding/2014/fo/c4fo00371c/unauth#!divAbstract https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlelanding/2014/fo/c4fo0... "did not lower incidence of influenza"
- LinuxBender 7y ago
  It would be no benefit to anyone that is not already deficient. [1] [1] - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6075634/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6075634/
- belltaco 7y ago
  Here's a positive result. https://www.bmj.com/content/356/bmj.i6583 https://www.bmj.com/content/356/bmj.i6583 "Vitamin D supplementation was safe and it protected against acute respiratory tract infection overall. Patients who were very vitamin D deficient and those not receiving bolus doses experienced the most benefit."
  - herf 7y ago
    Good one (odds ratio=0.88), and it's generally low-risk.
BlargMcLarg 7y ago
I'm curious how this is the conclusion you made instead of becoming more macro-organized. People are getting more and more stressed (see burn-outs rising), affecting our immune systems. Most of us are still encouraged to go into work when we have a cold. Many could work from home, but are actively or passively stigmatized when attempting to do so. For all its draconian measures, China is showing them to be effective for the time being. In the same way, we could've rid ourselves of many pests, plagues and illnesses ages ago which a simple "get your immune system up bro" couldn't deal with.
bilekas 7y ago
> people should focus on improving their immune system Okay, but for those who cant, underlining conditions etc, what do you suggest ? This is the world we live in, and that kind of build up you're talking about that would fight off all these strains of virus' would take generations of active measures. In the meantime, I don't think it's a bad idea to develop vaccines and shots which will aid our immune system. Our body uses the memory DNA (or memory cells - Not a doctor) after getting chicken-pox so that we (usually) don't get it again. But the COVID strains vary so much it's a little pie-in-the sky right now to imagine naturally fighting all of them. Our best defense is our ability to maintain good hygiene in this generation. We know all about how these things spread, and that should be the primary focus for the every day to day person.
- LinuxBender 7y ago
  Everyone will eventually get one of the mutations. [1] Maybe a vaccine will cover all of them some day. In the mean time, everyone, especially those with pre-exisiting conditions should be focusing on removing burdens from their immune system (sugar, carbs, anything that spikes insulin), getting a LOT of sleep, and ensuring they are not deficient in D3, Zinc, L-Glutamine, Magnesium, well, all the essential minerals, vitamins and enzymes. I have not had a vaccine since the 1990's and I have only noticeably had the flu twice (h1n1, h3n2) and even then it just made me gassy. I went home as a courtesy to my coworkers. I have not had a cold in 15 years. [1] - https://nextstrain.org/ncov https://nextstrain.org/ncov

m0zg 7y ago

Ctrl+F "remdesivir". No results in the article. Epic fail. There's really no cure for the Trump Derangement Syndrome, though.

hprotagonist 7y ago
I have met Derek Lowe personally. He's got 35 years in the game as a bench chemist working on theraputics and knows this world inside and out. What are your similarly long-term credentials that give you such definitive knowledge?
- m0zg 7y ago
  ^ and he's still wrong. There are several drugs and vaccines undergoing trials as we speak, and being given to patients in China. At least two drugs, Remdesivir and Chloroquine have shown efficacy already. Chloroquine is a generic that costs a dollar a bucket and can be produced in any quantity.
  - WaltPurvis 7y ago
    These are antiviral drugs that may partially lessen the effects for some people who are already demonstrably sick (Remdesivir is administered intravenously to patients who are already hospitalized and is only in very first stage of initial trials). They will do very little to stop the spread of the virus. (Also, perhaps if you read the article instead of just doing Ctl-F for Remdesivir, you'd have noticed that he said he plans to discuss specific drugs in an upcoming post.)
  - empath75 7y ago
    There’s no guarantee any of those will work and none of them will be ready before it goes pandemic.
- lazyjones 7y ago
  This kind of "appeal to authority" argument reminds me of the recent interview with an industry "veteran" (60 years experience in developing combustion engines) and professor where he condemned electric cars and claimed they will not help the climate. Being experienced doesn't mean you can't be foolish/dogmatic or simply wrong. And it doesn't always take an even more experienced researcher to prove someone wrong. I wish we would discuss more about the actual issues instead of belittling users' qualifications to speak about them.

crystaldev 7y ago

...but the girl at the dispensary told me oregano oil cures COVID-19 (because "it cures everything!"). Edit: From +4 to -4 and flagged, que serioso! This account will now self-destruct.

eganist 7y ago
You're telling me this https://i.imgur.com/hs9sEi3.png https://i.imgur.com/hs9sEi3.png is a thing? I was hopeful it was just a meme.

swsieber 7y ago

Most comments seemed to be responding to the title, which misses the point. The title is quite editorialized. The real point of the article is that there's no drug or vaccine in the works that will be able to prevent the impending U.S. epidemic, so don't pin your hopes on them. I'd go so far as to suggest a new title of "Get Real - Drugs and Vaccines won't Prevent a U.S. Epidemic".

rolph 7y ago
its too late to prevent an epidemic in most places there is no star trek solution that will suddenly prevent epidemic anywhere that is apparently free of virus for the time being. the virus is not so lethal as to justify suspension of safety and efficacy trials. the potential to kill far more people with a mistake than the virus would kill, is very real.

econcon 7y ago

Yesterday one friend's mom had respiratory failure and got hard - locked jaws. This was Coronavirus She was administered intravenous antibiotics and Cortisol After that she got bit better

thenewnewguy 7y ago
I have a hard time believing that both a doctor would administer antibiotics for coronaVIRUS and that antibiotics would be of any use there. Edit: Children comments are pointing out the antibiotics could be for secondary infections. Fair enough, but the parent comment's implication that the antibiotics helped with coronavirus recovery is what's problematic.
- econcon 7y ago
  I had same reaction, it happened in Torino, Italy. I've no idea why I am being downvoted for reporting simply what she told me.
  - egdod 7y ago
    No doctor is dumb enough to give antibiotics for a virus.
    - econcon 7y ago
      They don't know it's Coronavirus tho, they didn't test for it. Calling it Corona is just my speculation based on who she worked with in the clinic where she's a nurse.
      - ceejayoz 7y ago
        So "This was Coronavirus" was actually bullshit.
        econcon 7y ago

anticensor 7y ago

This is SARS type 2; please stop using COVID-19. > distinction between a disease caused by a specific virus and the virus that causes it The virus is also called SARS-CoV-2.

SpicyLemonZest 7y ago
I dunno, I think that one's on the scientists. Expecting the general public to maintain a nominal distinction between a disease caused by a specific virus and the virus that causes it isn't reasonable.
- tomatocracy 7y ago
  The concept is well enough understood by the general public I think in the context of HIV/AIDS so I'm not sure why it couldn't be here too. I think it would be a useful concept for the general public to understand the distinction if there turn out to be significant numbers of asymptomatic but infectious people.

RcouF1uZ4gsC 7y ago

I know Derek Lowe is an expert. However, sometimes, experts think that because things have always been a certain way throughout their career, they will always be like that. Drug development has been very conservative especially in the US for the past several decades. The FDA is all about making sure they never have a thalidomide incident and would rather lose a lot of good drugs than approve a bad drug. This is the steady state. However, a global pandemic is more akin to wartime footing. During WWII design and production ramped up to an unprecedented degree. There is a possibility that Covid19 will spark such a global response.

blobbers 7y ago
`...would rather lose a lot of good drugs than approve a bad drug.` Thanks for saying this, and rightfully so! Approving a bad drug in the world where distribution channels are very well set up could have disastrous effects. We can point to things like the opioid crisis in the USA right now - a drug that is so addictive it should have never been put into use the way it was.
- Chemranch2020 7y ago
  There are many solutions especially the O2 respiratory mask which is very effective against airborne particles and viruses. You can get it here. http://chemexoticshop.com/product/buy-o2-breath-mask-online/ http://chemexoticshop.com/product/buy-o2-breath-mask-online/
- mhb 7y ago
  I don't understand the "rightfully so!" There is a real cost to not approving good drugs in order to avoid approving bad ones.
  - metalliqaz 7y ago
    of course there is, it's just a lesser cost than the cost of approving bad ones
    - 7y ago

shrubble 7y ago

Is it the case that SARS (of many years ago) had a vaccine developed for it, but it had too many side effects or was not effective enough to get past trials? And that while this virus is different it is similar in many respects... leading me to think that a vaccine may also be difficult to produce.

koheripbal 7y ago
By the time the SARS vaccine was nearly completed testing, the outbreak had burned out.
daxorid 7y ago
Yes, the SARS vaccine virtually guaranteed severe lung scarring if you were re-exposed to full-strength SARS: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0035421 https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal...
- UncleOxidant 7y ago
  Would this also the case if someone who had SARS and recovered was re-exposed to SARS?
allovernow 7y ago
There was is one paper[0] where 4 candidates were tested on a number of animal species. In all but one variant, immunity was successfully conferred by the vaccine. However, in all successful cases, the vaccines triggered some sort of autoimmune response wherin upon exposure to the pathogen post vaccination, lung damage resulted[0]. Now I believe this has something to do with another nefarious speculated property of SARS-CoV-2: Antibody Dependent Enhancement (ADE). Can't find the original source but here[1] researchers also speculate about ADE. The gist is that your antibodies, instead of neutralizing the virus, actually enhance its ability to enter your cells[2]. I don't know if this is confirmed, but multiple sources have made the suggestion. If this is the case, typical vaccines actually may be dangerous. Now I'm not not an expert but I believe there is a way to create a vaccine which avoids ADE, but AFAIK that hasn't been done for the previous SARS strain. This was a problem with MERS too btw. 0. https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0035421 https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal... Credit to user daxorid for the link. 1. https://www.virosin.org/fileZGBDX/journal/article/vs/newcreate/0216.pdf https://www.virosin.org/fileZGBDX/journal/article/vs/newcrea... 2. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhanceme...

tonmoy 7y ago

I have personal reasons to hate the current administration. However, even an incompetent government is better than no government during times like these. I hope we can stay united in our plight against the common enemy.

ribble 7y ago

> But here come some politics: Trump hardly understands any subjects whatsoever, while at the same time claiming vast areas of expertise. fuck. you.

bhanhfo 7y ago

Scientific agreement seems to be that ~60-70% of the population will get infected. It is just not sure if within months or (hopefully!) years. And no drugs within at least one year. Edit: Source => Original in German here: https://www.sueddeutsche.de/gesundheit/krankheiten-experte-erwartet-60-bis-70-prozent-infizierte-in-deutschland-dpa.urn-newsml-dpa-com-20090101-200228-99-108884 https://www.sueddeutsche.de/gesundheit/krankheiten-experte-e... Express UK translated it here: https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1249963/Coronavirus-news-COVID19-worse-than-Spanish-Flu-latest-coronavirus-update https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1249963/Coronavirus-n... The guy interview is Prof. Drosten. He is the co-discoverer of the SARS virus, and is one of the top 10 guys in this field. PS: Sorry for not adding the source right away.

cactus2093 7y ago
Sources? It seems far too early and there isn't enough reliable observational data, much less scientific trial data, available for broad "scientific agreement". Although obviously the accuracy of China's data is in question, it's promising that they were able to get the reproduction rate below 1 pretty quickly. And within Wuhan itself the spreading seems to have slowed with something like 0.6% of the population of 11 million infected. Not to mention in China outside of Wuhan/Hubei, which have conditions much more similar to most of the rest of the world in having some advanced warning of the virus, the spread seems also to have slowed down at a much much lower infection rate. Based on this information it's not clear to me where the "40-70% of the world getting infected" idea is coming from, though I've seen a few headlines reporting that too.
- bhanhfo 7y ago
  Source added in my post above. The number comes from this guy: https://www.charite.de/en/service/en_person_detail/person/address_detail/drosten-3/ https://www.charite.de/en/service/en_person_detail/person/ad...
- dwild 7y ago
  Wuhan is your reference? China too? Aren't they putting pretty severe quarantine in Wuhan? Aren't their quarantine outside of Wuhan still quite strong? The Diamond Princess had a quarantine, and yet the infection reached 706 peoples, in a boat with 3711 peoples. Sure that's "only" 20%, but that seems to me like 40% isn't that far out if we are considering that it's hard to quarantine a whole country. The timeframe is important too, as long as we don't have developed any vaccine, the only way to develop immunity is by being infected... thus if the virus spread that easily, it's only a question of when will we reach 40-70%, not if.

cryoshon 7y ago

a vaccine might be 18 months away, if we're lucky and divert resources to the effort. if we're unlucky, it could be four to five years or even longer. remember, there's no guarantee that we can even make a vaccine for any arbitrary viral disease. we can't do nothing while we wait for a vaccine. placeholder antiviral therapies are also a non-starter. we can't manufacture the drugs at the scale we need them unless we massively expand our production capabilities, and that takes time as well as money. --- as things stand currently, there has been no substantive response by the US federal government to the coronavirus which will lead to the lessening of infections or mortality. china and south korea both explicitly stated that they were transitioning to wartime footing to combat the virus. we need to follow in their footsteps. we need billions of dollars in spending, suspension of normal daily life, and requisitioning of the necessary resources from private entities if needed. and we need to do this today. now. this afternoon. preferably before 5 PM. this isn't a problem to be left until tomorrow. yet we're still here, conducting life as normal as the infection reaches the exponential part of its spread. people are still going to work, going to church, and riding the subway. hospitals and prisons don't have any special measures in place. we aren't even testing people after weeks of knowing that we are at risk for local transmissison. we have no extra resources queued up. as of today, our congress can't even agree to pass a funding bill to combat the disease. we have no leadership, and it's going to kill quite a few people. if you think i'm being "alarmist", please revisit my here comment in six months, when we'll have a clearer idea of the death toll. i don't know if this virus will kill a million americans, or only a few hundred. either way, if we act with more vigor over the last few weeks, i can say with confidence that more people will live.

theseadroid 7y ago
I totally agree with you. >china and south korea both explicitly stated that they were transitioning to wartime footing to combat the virus. we need to follow in their footsteps. we need billions of dollars in spending, suspension of normal daily life, and requisitioning of the necessary resources from private entities if needed. and we need to do this today. now. this afternoon. preferably before 5 PM. this isn't a problem to be left until tomorrow. This won't happen in North America. As a Chinese who reads Chinese and English news sources everyday, it appears while China is very heavy handed in censorship for anything coronavirus related, in NA there is too much misinformation floating around, to the point that people cannot agree on anything. Specifically western media have been producing outrage porn for clicks around Covid 19 for a while, resulting in much misinformation on how China's measurements in combatting the virus are inhumane and in violation of human rights, that even talking about those options will bring so much negativity into the discussion. Apparently inaction and incapability of the government and every one only takes care of themselves are not human right violation. Even we don't have a cure, slowing down the spread is a huge win in for the healthcare system as a whole.[1] 1. https://www.vox.com/2020/3/2/21161067/coronavirus-covid19-china https://www.vox.com/2020/3/2/21161067/coronavirus-covid19-ch...

kiterunner2346 7y ago

The key may not be a vaccine but simply staying alive. Covid-19 kills with a "cytokine storm": cytochine release syndrome(cytokine storm): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytokine_release_syndrome https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytokine_release_syndrome Article discussing coronavirus et al and cytochine storm: "Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China" https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6... From the article: "In view of the high amount of cytokines induced by SARS-CoV,22, 24 MERS-CoV,25, 26 and 2019-nCoV infections, corticosteroids were used frequently for treatment of patients with severe illness, for possible benefit by reducing inflammatory-induced lung injury. However, current evidence in patients with SARS and MERS suggests that receiving corticosteroids did not have an effect on mortality, but rather delayed viral clearance.27, 28, 29 Therefore, corticosteroids should not be routinely given systemically, according to WHO interim guidance." Curcumin has been shown to suppress the cytokine storm. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25600522/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25600522/ Curcumin is found in the spice turmeric and is available in most grocery stores. Today you can buy a pound of turmeric powder for ~$6. You can buy curcumin tablets in the health & fitness section. Other anti-inflammatory agents (NSAIDS(aspirin, buprofen, naproxen),prednisone, etc.) are not as effective. In India children are often given a daily teaspoon of turmeric (curcumin) in milk or water. India suffered much lower SARS deaths (there are confounding factors, e.g. India's high summer heat). I expect the same to happen with covid-19.

empath75 7y ago
I haven’t seen anyone say it kills with a cytokine storm — spanish flu did that.
- kiterunner2346 7y ago
  Lancet Article(February 22, 2020): "Reducing mortality from 2019-nCoV: host-directed therapies should be an option" https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30305-6/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6... from the article: "In most moribund patients, 2019-nCoV infection is also associated with a cytokine storm, which is characterised by increased plasma concentrations of interleukins 2, 7, and 10, ..."

howmayiannoyyou 7y ago

Lowe was a proponent of intravenous vitamin C under a specific set of circumstances for immune response during oncology (https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/03/02/vitamin-c-and-immuno-oncology https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/03/02/vi...), and in China and Korea claims are being made that similar intravenous (not oral therapy) has positive results: (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6-elCYFhqJs&feature=emb_logo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6-elCYFhqJs&feature=emb_logo) and (https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04264533 https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04264533) It would be ironic if the most overhyped supplement of all time had efficacy here.

daddylonglegs 7y ago

I've edited the sub-title (that I added) from "no COVID-19 drug or vaccine in the short term" to "no drug or vaccine will avoid a very big coronavirus epidemic." The author or magazine nailed their colours to the mast with the title "Get Real," so I think that should stay in the title. Lowe doesn't use "COVID-19" or "SARS-CoV-2" or "nCov" in the article so I've used "coronavirus epidemic." I did not expect the title detract from the discussion to the extent that it has, sorry.

the_af 7y ago

I see a lot of panicky comments, both in real life and in this very thread. I know COVID19 is different from a regular flu, but is it more serious? "Regular" flu is very contagious and kills lots of people every year. It's ok to study coronavirus and to try to find ways to effectively manage it, combat it or prevent the disease -- but why are we panicking? Nobody panics about the flu and it's proven to be fatal for a lot of people every year. Why the panic with coronavirus, why are people in this very thread worrying about "the death toll"? Is there any projection that the death toll is going to be higher than usual for a flu? For what it's worth, my doctor told me "it's like a flu, don't worry". A doctor friend of mine told me the same.

JoeAltmaier 7y ago
Anecdotal reporting is useless. Read some more, and stop spreading false sense of security. That could actually get somebody killed.
- the_af 7y ago
  Not sure if you're accusing me of something, but just in case: I'm not spreading a false sense of security. I do think prophylaxis and management of the disease is urgent. I think the same of the flu. People at risk tend to die from these diseases. I think health systems of every country should deal with the infection, as well as manage seasonal flu. If anything, I'm asking why people worry more about this than about regular flu, when we know the flu can be deadly. I'm asking for data, projections, etc. Do we know it's more serious? If so, the data is welcome. As usual, judging by the media, coronavirus is the apocalypsis and journalists are playing this up for all it's worth. Some people already told me the measured death rate is already higher than regular flu. That's data I can understand. I'd like to know how this compares with initial death rate of any new type of flu, before it stabilizes itself.
  - chrisco255 7y ago
    Good stats on number of cases, deaths, recoveries etc: https://thewuhanvirus.com/ https://thewuhanvirus.com/ Comparisons to H1N1 and SARS included.

aazaa 7y ago

For those suggesting that a COVID-19 vaccine can somehow be fast tracked, consider what happens if something goes wrong during deployment to the population. The US has an active, very vocal anti-vax community. They've been growing and gaining ground for decades. The first sign of trouble of any kind with a new COVID-19 vaccine would result in a backlash of biblical proportions. It could be so strong as to derail any attempt at a follower. For this reason, I expect to see two things: 1. withering pressure from the current administration to cut corners on testing any new vaccine 2. a good chance for disastrous consequences resulting from (1)

JoeAltmaier 7y ago
Vs what? a million dead? They might have some opinion on whether its worth risking a black eye for a quick vaccine.
- kingbirdy 7y ago
  I believe OPs point is about considering the longer term effects. If we prevent a million Covid-19 deaths with a rushed vaccine, but the vaccine kills even a few people and brings anti-vaxx into full swing and we get a nationwide diphtheria outbreak instead, are we really coming out ahead?
  - koheripbal 7y ago
    Then again, the longer we wait to deploy a vaccine, the more likely a novel strain will emerge and make itself endemic and seasonal like the flu, in need of yearly vaccinations and persistently high CFR.
  - mellavora 7y ago
    And as evidence, there are numerous known bad side effects from prior rushed vaccines. The risk is very real.
  - carapace 7y ago
    I think a much more likely scenario in the event of a bad plague would be that angry mobs will put anti-vaxxers up against the wall and shoot them. (I am NOT advocating this! Looking over history that seems to me to be a more likely reaction.)

partingshots 7y ago

Given that this is so similar to the previous SARS epidemic, how did that whole thing eventually end? Was a vaccine created? Did it just naturally fizzle out?

Dirlewanger 7y ago
Summer hit the Northern Hemisphere.
- partingshots 7y ago
  So how likely is it that when summer comes the same will happen with the current coronavirus epidemic?
  - ars 7y ago
    It's summer in Brazil, and other southern countries, so we can just watch them and see.
- ceejayoz 7y ago
  This theory is silly. SARS spread in Singapore, where the average high temperature stays at 87-90 degrees twelve months out of the year. They don't have a winter/summer cycle. SARS was stopped because infectious people were readily identifiable by checking for a fever.
erentz 7y ago
SARS, while more deadly, was harder to spread, so in the end it was able to be contained.

anu7df 7y ago

Yes. It is worse than a regular flu. But, if you look at statistics from S. Korea, the only country with a substantial infection and trust worthy numbers (as in they test heavily), the death rate is around 0.6% overall. So not the end of the world, but nothing to be complacent about either. If the White house will get out of the way and let the system work, we may still have time to mitigate the worst here in the USA. But of course, we don't even want to cancel SXSW. What more needs to be said? <insert Darwin thumbs up gif > Addition: No, I "trust" the reported numbers from Italy. I think they are missing a lot of mild cases that are not being reported or tested. When I checked a few days ago, it looked like of the tests that South Korea ran, only 5% or so were positive. So, their infected numbers are probably more accurate. The death rate may still be higher, because we don't know how many in the infected population as of today will recover. One could for example calculate the death rate as [Number_of_deaths.today]/[Number_infected.x_days_ago] I don't really know the "x" to use in this circumstance, but just using 7 days (since a lot of deaths occurred in 7-9 days from positive detection), the death rate may be about a factor of 2 higher. So about 1% overall. I have been looking at so many different sources in the last few days, I can't seem to find the sites where I got the numbers for the above calculations from. So I might be off by a bit.

pier25 7y ago
You don't trust Italy with their numbers? Last time I checked it was around 3% there. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/coronavirus-deaths-china-cases-slow-live-updates-200303003539680.html https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/coronavirus-deaths-ch...
- wooly_bully 7y ago
  In the linked figure in the article, the SK tests have about 5x more per million people so their denominator is likely a better idea of the true number of cases.
  - pier25 7y ago
    I don't disagree with the idea that the total number of cases is unreported but the WHO said yesterday it's actually 3.4% globally. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who-says-coronavirus-death-rate-is-3point4percent-globally-higher-than-previously-thought.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who-says-coronavirus-death-r...

haunter 7y ago

So some comments here say 60-70% global infection [0] and 3-4% death rate [1]. Is this really possible? That would be like ~150 million deaths. 0, https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22485485 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22485485 1, https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22485692 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22485692

katmannthree 7y ago
It could be worse than that once the hospitals are overloaded / out of equipment needed for artificial respiration. From the numbers coming out of China ~20% of cases are "serious," ~5% "critical."
lm28469 7y ago
"if" we get to 70% of the world contaminated and "if" the death rate really is that high globally then yes the maths checks out. But that's already a lot of "ifs".
bcrosby95 7y ago
Outcome of critical cases is heavily reliant upon whether the medical system can handle the number of infected. If someone requires a ventilator and you're out of ventilators they're kinda fucked. There's also evidence that lots of people show little to no symptoms. There's probably a large number of people that simply don't know they had it. Which is both good and bad. If we manage to keep it from spreading too far too fast, from the variety of studies I've seen then anywhere from .5% to 1% is probably more realistic. But if we don't, expect something higher. This is why waiting for "enough" people to die as evidence of severity, then responding is a poor response. FWIW the Spanish Flu infected 27% of the world's population. 60-70% seems really high.
- harambaebae69 7y ago
  Commercial aviation had barely begun when the Spanish Flu occurred, and the world was nowhere near as connected.

mellavora 7y ago

Looking at this thread as an interesting datapoint. Typically HN is thoughtful, well reasoned, and well informed. This thread is not holding that same level. Wonder what this says about the level of concern over this bug.

iamatworknow 7y ago
This has been true of every HN thread in the past week or two relating to COVID-19. The typical objectivity you see among the usual audience has disappeared.
- mellavora 7y ago
  ok, so I'm not the only person seeing this. Concerning. Thanks for sharing.
s9w 7y ago
I read on so many different places on the internet, and I have no idea where this is going. HN is very panicky, 4chan is the same or really in the post-apocalyptic stage. Reddit is extremely conservative / non-panicky (maybe because anything else gets banned). Newspapers and traditional media are all over the place with their panic levels. I don't know what to make of this.
carapace 7y ago
It says approximately nothing unless you're somehow tracking individual users' behavior over time. - - - - Don't panic. Stay home and encourage others to stay home. We can't stop the virus (yet) but we can slow it down and buy time. "The only way to fight a pandemic is decency." (I'll link to the source if I can find it, I think it was an article in the Atlantic that went by here on HN this week.)
- mellavora 7y ago
  Yes, this is the time for increased concern for your neighbors. And yes, avoidance behaviors will dramatically slow community spread.

elihu 7y ago

To be fair, it's possible that we discover that an existing, already-approved drug or treatment is more effective at reducing the death rate of people experiencing the worst symptoms than what we're doing now. A vaccine is probably very far away, though.

ouid 7y ago

This post has 164 points and 204 comments in 3 hours, and is on the second page? Do I fundamentally misunderstand how this works?

tonmoy 7y ago
Yes, HN heavily penalizes posts with votes lower than number of comments
- ouid 7y ago
  alright, thanks.
haileris 7y ago
Check out hckrnews, It's Hacker News but sorted chronologically.
- phendrenad2 7y ago
  How does this differ from the "new" link on vanilla HN?
  - hackeerTwo 7y ago
    just HN, this is not javascript
senordevnyc 7y ago
Virtually every COVID-19 story here for the last month has suffered the same fate. I suspect there’s a dedicated group of users here who think this is no big deal and are flagging every mention of it.