16 ms·

New COVID-19 cases reported across Japan

148 points by fspeech 7y ago

DyslexicAtheist 7y ago
> Those who test negative will be allowed to leave between Wednesday and Friday, while those who test positive will be hospitalized. The same measures will apply to crew members. Most of the passengers to be released on Wednesday will be Japanese, with priority being given to the elderly. How is this enforced? Do they shepherd the infected straight into quarantine after the test, or is it more of a "we trust that you go there now" kind of a situation? And how is that enforced on those that don't have health insurance - is covid automatically covered? I wonder (not so much about Japan, where things tend to go down mostly orderly) about other countries with poor healthcare. How is it "managed" in areas where people are already misinformed and/or maybe who rather take the risk (to themselves and others) of sitting it out, because they fear costs or other drawbacks (losing your job etc).
- aikinai 7y ago
  Everyone in Japan is covered. Even if they find out you weren’t paying, you just owe the back payments for the public option but they never consider your coverage lapsed.
  - Aeolun 7y ago
    Still need to have an insurance card from city hall though. You are not ‘automatically’ covered.
    - eecc 7y ago
      I doubt you’d be turned away under these circumstances
      - Aeolun 7y ago
        Oh, yeah. I think Corona patients get free care from the moment they test as positive. Strangely enough you still need to pay for the test, but meh :P
    - aikinai 7y ago
      Just looked it up and yeah, you’re right; it is possible to be totally uninsured. Fortunately, even worst case you’d only pay 3 times the insured cost and be able to deduct from taxes, so it’d still be cheaper than somewhere like the US.
      - Aeolun 7y ago
        To some extend, you’d be able to sign up at city hall and still get a discount regardless of whether you’ve paid the premium (which would be like 6000 yen per year if you have no income). I think city hall would come after you after about a year or so, and then you could call them and set up a deferred payment plan (or get the cost completely rescinded maybe).
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- rfoo 7y ago
  COVID-19 is automatically covered, even for foreigners since it was declared as a 指定感染症. You have to be tested positive before get covered, though.
- allovernow 7y ago
  >Those who test negative will be allowed to leave between Wednesday and Friday Are the people designing these policies not aware that current test kits have upwards of 50% false negative rate? Edit: I can't find the source so take this with a grain of salt.
  - what_ever 7y ago
    > current test kits have upwards of 50% false negative rate Is there any source for this?
    - fspeech 7y ago
      The virus infects the lung. Swabbing upper respiratory tracts may not detect it at the early stage.
christkv 7y ago
Those Tokyo cases. I hope they are connected to existing known cases or its gone communal.
- mazsa 7y ago
  Gone communal: "Authorities also confirmed two more cases: a doctor in his 50s who works at a hospital in western Japan and a man in his 20s who lives in Chiba, near Tokyo. None had a record of travelling abroad in recent weeks or contacts with Chinese nationals – a possible sign that the virus is spreading inside the country." https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/13/japan-reports-first-coronavirus-death-as-44-more-cases-confirmed-aboard-cruise-ship https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/13/japan-reports-...
  - sitkack 7y ago
    The virus can spread between asymptomatic hosts for as long as 8 days before showing signs of infection.
    - bart_spoon 7y ago
      Most of those claims have been walked back, as far as I know. There were initial reports that the virus can be spread asymptomatically, but since then there has been more skepticism about the data around those claims. Right now I don't think anyone knows for sure if the virus can be spread in asymptomatic hosts or not.
      - sitkack 7y ago
        Was the German claim walked back? What about the folks in Japan right now? Doubt is good, but asymmetric doubt is foolish.
        Fomite 7y ago
        The German claim was walked back - the original authors didn't interview the actual person they were claiming were asymptomatic.
Aeolun 7y ago
Tokyo will become the next Wuhan, except they won’t be able to quarantaine anyone.
- wiremaus 7y ago
  What's your basis for that statement? Japanese social norms are quite communitarian, especially around contagious diseases.
  - tasogare 7y ago
    It all depends on the companies and institutions. If there are no special holidays or orders, people will go to work no matter what and the epidemic will spread. On the other hand, if the government or companies imposes a quarantine, it will be respected.
- partiallypro 7y ago
  Japan is a much much cleaner country than China, with better health infrastructure. So I highly doubt your assessment.
  - paganel 7y ago
    The problem is that as far as we know about 15% of the people who get infected with covid-19 require intensive care. Combine that with the fact that covid-19 is very easily transmissible (even from people who show no symptoms) plus the size of a megalopolis such as Tokyo and things could get really ugly really, really fast. No government has tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands of hospital beds at the ready in order to handle such a scenario (and this is also why the Chinese had to resort to putting sick people in sports halls and the like). There’s also the very ugly fact that most probably half of the health workers directly involved will also get infected in the first 3 or 4 weeks, at which point you’d need to have a fresh batch of new doctors and nurses easily available from the outside.
    - Aeolun 7y ago
fleshfly 7y ago
How did Japan allow the virus to spread to hundreds of people aboard the Diamond Princess? If the Chinese ran that operation they would get raked over the coals for it.
arbuge 7y ago
It appears to be spreading in the community now, which makes me think stopping a pandemic at this point will be very hard. One can only wonder what happens when it reaches places with much weaker health infrastructure, such as Africa and also many parts of India. This seems to me like an accurate assessment of the situation: https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2020/02/harvard-expert-says-coronavirus-likely-just-gathering-steam/ https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2020/02/harvard-exper...
- ipnon 7y ago
  Let alone the United States, a country in which people delay healthcare until the latest possible moment to avoid the costs. This strategy is advantageous to the individual but disadvantageous to the group. The individual may survive without treatment, but without quarantine they proceed to infect those around them. Those around them may be in similar financial conditions.
  - baq 7y ago
    my understanding is that the CDC can and will resort to extreme measures to contain any dangerous disease, but what I don't understand is who is paying for treatment of individuals that are affected by those measures. (disclaimer: European here)
    - davidw 7y ago
      I'm sure the government would likely kick in to quarantine people. The problem are all the people who will wait until they're really sick before checking in, or won't go to a doctor at all, and they've already spread it by that point.
    - rtkwe 7y ago
      People will still most likely be stuck with the price of their care unless we get to the point that the CDC and the government at large are opening quarantine and treatment facilities of their own to deal with a true outbreak. Short of that most people will just wind up in the normal hospital and healthcare system which means they'd be paying for their own care. It'd be a sad but ultimately useful twist if a big outbreak hitting the US pushed us to finally adopt a reasonable centralized healthcare system. I could see it happening but I could also just see a block of money being set aside to pay for peoples' care too.
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
manojlds 7y ago
At this rate the Tokyo olympics might be cancelled.
- agumonkey 7y ago
  Wasn't there something similar in Brazil few years ago ?
  - manojlds 7y ago
    Zika. This is very much on a different level.
    - agumonkey 7y ago
      Thanks, yeah I assume it's biologically comparable, I was just curious about the massive social event side of things
- mongol 7y ago
  Will the entire 2020 olympics be cancelled in that case? Or would it be moved or postponed?
  - rtkwe 7y ago
    It's too late to move it. The run up to hosting an Olympics lasts years and even recent hosts like Rio (2016) would have to do a lot of work to refresh facilities. [0] [0] As soon as a year after they were already just sitting empty and falling into disrepair. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jMgPEz29abI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jMgPEz29abI
    - jerf 7y ago
      If it gets serious enough for Japan to cancel, nobody else is going to be able to host it either. It's supposed to be a worldwide competition, there's no point having it if half the world can't attend and the other half really, really doesn't want to.
watatta 7y ago
Has anyone seen this video yet? Apparently the government is so BAD about handling this. Sadly, not a surprise. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vtHYZkLuKcI&t=265s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vtHYZkLuKcI&t=265s
tunesmith 7y ago
Is it possible that disease density increases chances of fatality for a particular person? The fatality rate seems so low outside of China, compared to China.
- nexuist 7y ago
  Chinese air quality is godawful, and this is a respiratory disease, so the large fatality rate makes sense. It is more important to look at ages of those who die and so far it appears to be far more fatal to those over 50. Individually the fatality rate won't change, but as more individuals are infected the amount of people who are older will also go up and some of those cases will become fatal.
  - tunesmith 7y ago
    I came across someone else talking about "viral load" yesterday - I wonder if that is actually a factor.
oefrha 7y ago
WHO daily sitreps provide very clear stats on transmission outside China. The latest one for Feb 17: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200217-sitrep-28-covid-19.pdf https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situati... Japan (excluding the cruise ship): 59 confirmed cases (6 new), 26 cases with travel history to China, 33 cases (6 new) without (what they call “with possible or confirmed transmission outside China”).
- theseadroid 7y ago
  just wanna add to the discussion that there is a peer reviewed paper published today suggesting asymptomatic transmission is very likely. https://academic.oup.com/jid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/infdis/jiaa077/5739751 https://academic.oup.com/jid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/inf...
  - _rrnv 7y ago
    Which is interesting because various sources reported very likely asymptotic transmission as far as 2 weeks ago. But proper research takes time. This virus is fast and unknown, and most likely will test every part of our world system in a very dramatic, Hollywood way.
    - dekhn 7y ago
      it's hardly as remarkable or dramatic as you describe it (Hollywood). That's mainly the media upping the severity/alert level of the situation.
  - pmoriarty 7y ago
    Even if asymptomatic people transmit the virus "asymptomatic transmission likely plays a minor role in the epidemic overall, WHO says. People who cough or sneeze are more likely to spread the virus, the agency wrote"[1] [1] - https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/paper-non-symptomatic-patient-transmitting-coronavirus-wrong https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/paper-non-symptomati...
drcross 7y ago
I've heard it mentioned by an unreliable source that perhaps the Asian phenotype has more of a tendancy to succumb to the virus. I won't how true this is as the majority of the infections seem to be based in Asian countries so far. I wonder how strong the correlation is.
- manojlds 7y ago
  There's a lot of travel within those regions, so can't say much, but one theory is the difference is ACE2 receptors amongst asians.
  - christkv 7y ago
    From what I know there is a single study with 1 east asian patient. I would not conclude anything from that.
  - christkv 7y ago
    There is definitively different phenotypes https://www.medsci.org/v14p0639.htm https://www.medsci.org/v14p0639.htm What that means for the coronavirus is hard to say. Ideally we would know the composition of the cruise ship in japan of ethnicity (illness in each group, and outcome) and location on the ship so one can control for likelihood of being infected (I would guess having a room with a terrace might mean less chance of infection as you would not be only relying on AC air, but its a complete guess).
- bart_spoon 7y ago
  Seems like a jump to a conclusion that can be explained much more simply: the virus has started in China, and the neighboring countries are the next hardest hit. Seems to me like this would be the case for any novel disease for any region of the world. There seem to be plenty of non-Asians whom come in contact with the sick who in turn get sick. Its just that there are many fewer non-Asians coming into contact with the disease than Asians, for the time being.
- izend 7y ago
  Men and smokers are definitely more susceptible from the data right now.
Erlich_Bachman 7y ago
There is a useful daily updated dashboard that tracks all the cases, recoveries, death, geographical data and analytics about all that: http://avatorl.org/covid-19/ http://avatorl.org/covid-19/
- ct0 7y ago
  Here is an alternative from John Hopkins https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...
- allovernow 7y ago
  Those numbers are likely at least an order of magnitude underreported. They mirror the figures out of China, and there are a number of issues: 1. They follow a quadratic distribution over time with a regression coefficient of >.99. that's now how epidemics spread 2. China ran out of testing kits weeks ago. 3. Half of the population is on lockdown, and according to Chinese reports, even those who are sick and need to go to the hospital are not allowed to travel. So cases are not being counted 4. Even if they were able to do so, hospitals have been overwhelmed for weeks and have been turning cases away In addition to other reasons, the authoritarian CCP has shown a willingness to punish anyone who speaks toward how severe this infection actually is and their numbers absolutely cannot be trusted. Just look at the unprecedented response - 700 million people, 10% of the world's population, is under lockdown.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
  - z2 7y ago
    Can't speak to 2-4, but on 1., there seems to be research suggesting early epidemic growth can actually be quadratic: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27266847 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27266847 Specifically, it notes that "Sub-exponential growth profiles may result from heterogeneity in contact structures or risk groups, reactive behavior changes, or the early onset of interventions strategies, and consideration of "deceleration parameters" may be useful to refine existing mathematical transmission models and improve disease forecasts." Not sure if there are more striking examples of "reactionary behavior change" than a massive lockdown.
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
xvilka 7y ago
If you are not a scientist this doesn't mean you can't help fighting this particular or any other infectious and non-infectious disease. It is easy - just help to improve the tools that scientists and laboratories use. For example, something like BioJulia[1][2] and BioPython[3][4] - both have some issues[5][6] that need help with or accepting donations[7]. Or R packages, like survival[8]. There are many other tools that are used, feel free to list them in the comments. [1] https://biojulia.net/ https://biojulia.net/ [2] https://github.com/BioJulia https://github.com/BioJulia [3] https://biopython.org/ https://biopython.org/ [4] https://github.com/biopython/ https://github.com/biopython/ [5] https://github.com/BioJulia/BioSequences.jl/issues https://github.com/BioJulia/BioSequences.jl/issues [6] https://github.com/biopython/biopython/issues?q=label%3A%22help+wanted%22+is%3Aissue+is%3Aopen https://github.com/biopython/biopython/issues?q=label%3A%22h... [7] https://opencollective.com/biojulia#backer https://opencollective.com/biojulia#backer [8] https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/survival/index.html https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/survival/index.html
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- vishbar 7y ago
  Realistically, how well will someone with a nonspecialist knowledge of biology be able to contribute to these projects? That statement's not intended to pass judgement; I'd really like to know as it'd be great to contribute to a good cause.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
  - searine 7y ago
    A lot of bioinformatics specialists aren't talented programmers, they are biologists who know how to program as a means to an end. As a computer scientist you can add a lot of value by contributing to optimization and ease of use.
    - 7y ago
kragen 7y ago
Hopefully the pandemic has been delayed long enough to find effective treatments: https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/news/china-approves-favilavir-covid-19/ https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/news/china-approve... One month ago, on 2020-01-17, there were 62 confirmed COVID-19 cases in China. Now Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan without the Diamond Princess, and the Diamond Princess itself each independently have 62 or more confirmed cases. The rate of contagion within China has dropped dramatically, down from the neighborhood of 30% per day to the neighborhood of 3% per day. If a similar improvement plays out in Japan, Singapore — and countries like Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Australia, which probably have a lot more cases than those they've caught — it would take more than a year for the pandemic to reach its peak (log(7.7 billion / 73437)/log(1.03) ≈ 391), rather than the two months we've been predicting so far. That could provide enough time even for vaccination campaigns. There are people claiming that the slowdown in China is due to underreporting, but as far as I can tell that's pure speculation. It seems more likely that it's due to the Chinese health authorities putting 10% of the world population under near house arrest. ---- Some news about the Diamond Princess, though, from https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/02/19/national/diamond-princess-coronavirus/ https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/02/19/national/diamon... > All passengers aboard the cruise ship who have tested negative for the virus will be allowed to start disembarking Wednesday, health minister Katsunobu Kato said Tuesday, with the ministry having finished taking test samples from all passengers. ... > A group of 328 American passengers from the vessel left for home early Monday on planes chartered by the U.S. government. Over a dozen had tested positive for the virus. So the number of COVID-19 cases in the US has just gone from 15 to somewhere between 27 and 343, and the number in Japan is going from 74 to somewhere between 500 and 4000 today. Those repatriated to the US are subject to a 14-day quarantine, and I think Japan is taking similar measures, so maybe this won't fast-forward Japan from China's January 17 to China's January 26, in terms of spread of the disease. This is going to be very interesting, in the same way that oncoming headlights are very interesting to a deer. Note that this comment was originally voted down to -1. The anti-intellectual scum are out in force on HN today, it seems.
- justforyou 7y ago
  >> There are people claiming that the slowdown in China is due to underreporting, but as far as I can tell that's pure speculation. Occams razor is useful here.
christkv 7y ago
I really hope this can make it to market quickly as it would make it easier to protect ourselves. https://www.nature.com/articles/srep39956 https://www.nature.com/articles/srep39956
cpascal 7y ago
I think its more likely than not that COVID-19 will progress into a global pandemic. I don't think its a bad or rash idea to begin preparing to self-isolate/quarantine before panic-buying of supplies begins. Having a stock of non-perishable food, medication, masks, and disinfectants will definitely make things easier if COVID-19 can not be contained.
- jerf 7y ago
  There's two elements of prep work that anybody can and should do: 1. The cheap stuff that you may never use, but if you don't, isn't that big a deal: First aid kits, a supply of disinfectant, masks if it isn't already too late for that, etc. 2. Stuff you're going to buy anyhow, like canned food you already use, stuff you can easily freeze in advance without it being too big a deal, etc., that, again, you would have used anyhow. This is just pulling purchases forward rather than spending new money. After all, just because COVID-19 may in fact end up contained doesn't mean you're not going to be in a serious earthquake next week or something. Having this stuff widely distributed greatly increases the resiliency of society against all sorts of issues, means you'll be one less person draining valuable resources in case of some disaster, etc. Being at least a bit prepped is the socially responsible thing to do. Also, don't forget some of the specialized things for an extended in-home stay, which a lot of prep lists don't necessarily focus on (as a lot of them are assuming the problem is that you don't have a home anymore): Toilet paper, paper towels, salt & spices, etc. Anything you don't want to have to suddenly run out and get.
  - Seenso 7y ago
    > masks if it isn't already too late for that, etc. I don't know about surgical masks, but N95 respirators have been nearly totally sold out at retailers for a couple weeks. I know there are questions abut the use of N95 respirators to prevent infection when used by nonprofessionals, but they seem more widely available to consumers (at hardware stores) compared to surgical masks, due to their use in construction.
    - cpascal 7y ago
ohazi 7y ago
> So far, at least 616 people have tested positive for the virus in Japan, including 542 from the ship and eight other cases across the nation on Tuesday. So basically the vast majority of Japan's cases are due to the colossal mismanagement of the quarantine on the ship. A cruise ship is not an appropriate location for a quarantine -- it's a 3000 person cesspool. Many of the 500-odd passengers and crew who are now sick would not have been infected if everyone had been immediately sent to their home countries for quarantine on return, instead of being forced to wallow in improperly isolated rooms on the ship. Also, you can't just quarantine for two weeks, you need to have a two week interval without any new infections. The two week counter should have been resetting every day that the "new infection count" wasn't zero. Many of the passengers who tested negative are already infected, but they're going to send them home unencumbered anyway. This number is 50 times higher than it needed to be, and will cause this pandemic to fucking explode. I hope somebody goes to jail for this.
- sitkack 7y ago
  Single biggest fck up in this whole thing. The PCR protocol should be pushed everywhere and test everyone that is symptomatic for any corona virus, meaning if you have a cold you should stay home until it passes.
- 4restm 7y ago
  Iwata Kentaro, an infectious disease specialist, released a video with his criticisms of the ships quarantine. TL:DR bureaucracy is getting in the way of proper containment. There were no green/red containment areas. Personnel not wearing proper gear. He believes that bureaucrats in charge of the quarantine are actively blocking disease specialist from helping.
- skrebbel 7y ago
  > I hope somebody goes to jail for this. For incompetence?
  - ceejayoz 7y ago
    Negligent homicide is a thing.
trenning 7y ago
Has the origin of this been discovered/ agreed upon by now? I don't follow this too closely but I remember discussions on here about the origin. It seemed very contentious at the time because it started in the same city as a research facility so there was questions of it being accidentally released vs appearing organically in the market. Slightly of-topic, but idk where else to ask about this.
- theseadroid 7y ago
  A recent paper suggested that there is strong evidence that SARS-CoV-2 is not the product of genetic engineering. source: http://virological.org/t/the-proximal-origin-of-sars-cov-2/398 http://virological.org/t/the-proximal-origin-of-sars-cov-2/3...
  - trenning 7y ago
    Thanks for the link. Some cherry picked excerpts from the paper. > It is improbable that SARS-CoV-2 emerged through laboratory manipulation of an existing SARS-related coronavirus. As noted above, the RBD of SARS-CoV-2 is optimized for human ACE2 receptor binding with an efficient binding solution different to that which would have been predicted. Further, if genetic manipulation had been performed, one would expect that one of the several reverse genetic systems available for betacoronaviruses would have been used. However, this is not the case as the genetic data shows that SARS-CoV-2 is not derived from any previously used virus backbone17. Instead, we propose two scenarios that can plausibly explain the origin of SARS-CoV-2: (i) natural selection in a non-human animal host prior to zoonotic transfer, and (ii) natural selection in humans following zoonotic transfer. We also discuss whether selection during passage in culture could have given rise to the same observed features. > Although genomic evidence does not support the idea that SARS-CoV-2 is a laboratory construct, it is currently impossible to prove or disprove the other theories of its origin described here, and it is unclear whether future data will help resolve this issue. Identifying the immediate non-human animal source and obtaining virus sequences from it would be the most definitive way of revealing virus origins.
  - nexuist 7y ago
    It can still be released from a lab without being genetically engineered. It is possible that they had a sample retrieved from a cave somewhere, and that is what somehow escaped. That would explain the unprecedented response. I think the conspiracy theorists are hoping for something more impressive other than "it was a lab accident." History has taught us that lab accidents are a bit more likely than we'd like to admit - see "Biohazard" by Ken Alibek. The Soviet Union (and China) had several accidental release incidents during his time in Biopreparat. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ken_Alibek https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ken_Alibek As it stands, we have no way of knowing if it came from an animal or this lab unless they tell us. Either is possible.
reustle 7y ago
Show HN: I made an open-source COVID-19 coronavirus tracker for Japan https://COVID19Japan.com https://COVID19Japan.com
huyegn 7y ago
Meanwhile a man from the Westerdam cruise ship, where one passenger already tested positive, escapes quarantine, books ubers, and multiple flights, is arriving back in Seattle: https://komonews.com/news/local/man-stranded-on-coronavirus-infected-cruise-ship-arrives-at-sea-tac-airport https://komonews.com/news/local/man-stranded-on-coronavirus-... Some people can't get more selfish. Also, what a colossal failure on the part of customs and immigration.
- jesterson 7y ago
  It's not about "just people" - look at those people at cruise ship, abandoned by Japan, abandoned by cruise company and their countries. Little knowledge needed to predict what would happen if those people were left on the ship under what japanese officials called "quarantine". What is it if not selfishness of the whole nations? So are we to blame this single passenger?
senordevnyc 7y ago
Is it just me or do COVID-19 stories get buried here much faster than their upvotes would justify? Flagging?
TurkishPoptart 7y ago
>Avoiding unprotected contact with farm or wild animals. Well, that's a nice way of saying it.

148 points by fspeech 7y ago

> Those who test negative will be allowed to leave between Wednesday and Friday, while those who test positive will be hospitalized. The same measures will apply to crew members. Most of the passengers to be released on Wednesday will be Japanese, with priority being given to the elderly. How is this enforced? Do they shepherd the infected straight into quarantine after the test, or is it more of a "we trust that you go there now" kind of a situation? And how is that enforced on those that don't have health insurance - is covid automatically covered? I wonder (not so much about Japan, where things tend to go down mostly orderly) about other countries with poor healthcare. How is it "managed" in areas where people are already misinformed and/or maybe who rather take the risk (to themselves and others) of sitting it out, because they fear costs or other drawbacks (losing your job etc).

aikinai 7y ago
Everyone in Japan is covered. Even if they find out you weren’t paying, you just owe the back payments for the public option but they never consider your coverage lapsed.
- Aeolun 7y ago
  Still need to have an insurance card from city hall though. You are not ‘automatically’ covered.
  - eecc 7y ago
    I doubt you’d be turned away under these circumstances
    - Aeolun 7y ago
      Oh, yeah. I think Corona patients get free care from the moment they test as positive. Strangely enough you still need to pay for the test, but meh :P
  - aikinai 7y ago
    Just looked it up and yeah, you’re right; it is possible to be totally uninsured. Fortunately, even worst case you’d only pay 3 times the insured cost and be able to deduct from taxes, so it’d still be cheaper than somewhere like the US.
    - Aeolun 7y ago
      To some extend, you’d be able to sign up at city hall and still get a discount regardless of whether you’ve paid the premium (which would be like 6000 yen per year if you have no income). I think city hall would come after you after about a year or so, and then you could call them and set up a deferred payment plan (or get the cost completely rescinded maybe).
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
rfoo 7y ago
COVID-19 is automatically covered, even for foreigners since it was declared as a 指定感染症. You have to be tested positive before get covered, though.
allovernow 7y ago
>Those who test negative will be allowed to leave between Wednesday and Friday Are the people designing these policies not aware that current test kits have upwards of 50% false negative rate? Edit: I can't find the source so take this with a grain of salt.
- what_ever 7y ago
  > current test kits have upwards of 50% false negative rate Is there any source for this?
  - fspeech 7y ago
    The virus infects the lung. Swabbing upper respiratory tracts may not detect it at the early stage.

christkv 7y ago

Those Tokyo cases. I hope they are connected to existing known cases or its gone communal.

mazsa 7y ago
Gone communal: "Authorities also confirmed two more cases: a doctor in his 50s who works at a hospital in western Japan and a man in his 20s who lives in Chiba, near Tokyo. None had a record of travelling abroad in recent weeks or contacts with Chinese nationals – a possible sign that the virus is spreading inside the country." https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/13/japan-reports-first-coronavirus-death-as-44-more-cases-confirmed-aboard-cruise-ship https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/13/japan-reports-...
- sitkack 7y ago
  The virus can spread between asymptomatic hosts for as long as 8 days before showing signs of infection.
  - bart_spoon 7y ago
    Most of those claims have been walked back, as far as I know. There were initial reports that the virus can be spread asymptomatically, but since then there has been more skepticism about the data around those claims. Right now I don't think anyone knows for sure if the virus can be spread in asymptomatic hosts or not.
    - sitkack 7y ago
      Was the German claim walked back? What about the folks in Japan right now? Doubt is good, but asymmetric doubt is foolish.
      - Fomite 7y ago
        The German claim was walked back - the original authors didn't interview the actual person they were claiming were asymptomatic.

Aeolun 7y ago

Tokyo will become the next Wuhan, except they won’t be able to quarantaine anyone.

wiremaus 7y ago
What's your basis for that statement? Japanese social norms are quite communitarian, especially around contagious diseases.
- tasogare 7y ago
  It all depends on the companies and institutions. If there are no special holidays or orders, people will go to work no matter what and the epidemic will spread. On the other hand, if the government or companies imposes a quarantine, it will be respected.
partiallypro 7y ago
Japan is a much much cleaner country than China, with better health infrastructure. So I highly doubt your assessment.
- paganel 7y ago
  The problem is that as far as we know about 15% of the people who get infected with covid-19 require intensive care. Combine that with the fact that covid-19 is very easily transmissible (even from people who show no symptoms) plus the size of a megalopolis such as Tokyo and things could get really ugly really, really fast. No government has tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands of hospital beds at the ready in order to handle such a scenario (and this is also why the Chinese had to resort to putting sick people in sports halls and the like). There’s also the very ugly fact that most probably half of the health workers directly involved will also get infected in the first 3 or 4 weeks, at which point you’d need to have a fresh batch of new doctors and nurses easily available from the outside.
  - Aeolun 7y ago

fleshfly 7y ago

How did Japan allow the virus to spread to hundreds of people aboard the Diamond Princess? If the Chinese ran that operation they would get raked over the coals for it.

arbuge 7y ago

It appears to be spreading in the community now, which makes me think stopping a pandemic at this point will be very hard. One can only wonder what happens when it reaches places with much weaker health infrastructure, such as Africa and also many parts of India. This seems to me like an accurate assessment of the situation: https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2020/02/harvard-expert-says-coronavirus-likely-just-gathering-steam/ https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2020/02/harvard-exper...

ipnon 7y ago
Let alone the United States, a country in which people delay healthcare until the latest possible moment to avoid the costs. This strategy is advantageous to the individual but disadvantageous to the group. The individual may survive without treatment, but without quarantine they proceed to infect those around them. Those around them may be in similar financial conditions.
- baq 7y ago
  my understanding is that the CDC can and will resort to extreme measures to contain any dangerous disease, but what I don't understand is who is paying for treatment of individuals that are affected by those measures. (disclaimer: European here)
  - davidw 7y ago
    I'm sure the government would likely kick in to quarantine people. The problem are all the people who will wait until they're really sick before checking in, or won't go to a doctor at all, and they've already spread it by that point.
  - rtkwe 7y ago
    People will still most likely be stuck with the price of their care unless we get to the point that the CDC and the government at large are opening quarantine and treatment facilities of their own to deal with a true outbreak. Short of that most people will just wind up in the normal hospital and healthcare system which means they'd be paying for their own care. It'd be a sad but ultimately useful twist if a big outbreak hitting the US pushed us to finally adopt a reasonable centralized healthcare system. I could see it happening but I could also just see a block of money being set aside to pay for peoples' care too.

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

manojlds 7y ago

At this rate the Tokyo olympics might be cancelled.

agumonkey 7y ago
Wasn't there something similar in Brazil few years ago ?
- manojlds 7y ago
  Zika. This is very much on a different level.
  - agumonkey 7y ago
    Thanks, yeah I assume it's biologically comparable, I was just curious about the massive social event side of things
mongol 7y ago
Will the entire 2020 olympics be cancelled in that case? Or would it be moved or postponed?
- rtkwe 7y ago
  It's too late to move it. The run up to hosting an Olympics lasts years and even recent hosts like Rio (2016) would have to do a lot of work to refresh facilities. [0] [0] As soon as a year after they were already just sitting empty and falling into disrepair. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jMgPEz29abI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jMgPEz29abI
  - jerf 7y ago
    If it gets serious enough for Japan to cancel, nobody else is going to be able to host it either. It's supposed to be a worldwide competition, there's no point having it if half the world can't attend and the other half really, really doesn't want to.

watatta 7y ago

Has anyone seen this video yet? Apparently the government is so BAD about handling this. Sadly, not a surprise. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vtHYZkLuKcI&t=265s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vtHYZkLuKcI&t=265s

tunesmith 7y ago

Is it possible that disease density increases chances of fatality for a particular person? The fatality rate seems so low outside of China, compared to China.

nexuist 7y ago
Chinese air quality is godawful, and this is a respiratory disease, so the large fatality rate makes sense. It is more important to look at ages of those who die and so far it appears to be far more fatal to those over 50. Individually the fatality rate won't change, but as more individuals are infected the amount of people who are older will also go up and some of those cases will become fatal.
- tunesmith 7y ago
  I came across someone else talking about "viral load" yesterday - I wonder if that is actually a factor.

oefrha 7y ago

WHO daily sitreps provide very clear stats on transmission outside China. The latest one for Feb 17: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200217-sitrep-28-covid-19.pdf https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situati... Japan (excluding the cruise ship): 59 confirmed cases (6 new), 26 cases with travel history to China, 33 cases (6 new) without (what they call “with possible or confirmed transmission outside China”).

theseadroid 7y ago
just wanna add to the discussion that there is a peer reviewed paper published today suggesting asymptomatic transmission is very likely. https://academic.oup.com/jid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/infdis/jiaa077/5739751 https://academic.oup.com/jid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/inf...
- _rrnv 7y ago
  Which is interesting because various sources reported very likely asymptotic transmission as far as 2 weeks ago. But proper research takes time. This virus is fast and unknown, and most likely will test every part of our world system in a very dramatic, Hollywood way.
  - dekhn 7y ago
    it's hardly as remarkable or dramatic as you describe it (Hollywood). That's mainly the media upping the severity/alert level of the situation.
- pmoriarty 7y ago
  Even if asymptomatic people transmit the virus "asymptomatic transmission likely plays a minor role in the epidemic overall, WHO says. People who cough or sneeze are more likely to spread the virus, the agency wrote"[1] [1] - https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/paper-non-symptomatic-patient-transmitting-coronavirus-wrong https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/paper-non-symptomati...

drcross 7y ago

I've heard it mentioned by an unreliable source that perhaps the Asian phenotype has more of a tendancy to succumb to the virus. I won't how true this is as the majority of the infections seem to be based in Asian countries so far. I wonder how strong the correlation is.

manojlds 7y ago
There's a lot of travel within those regions, so can't say much, but one theory is the difference is ACE2 receptors amongst asians.
- christkv 7y ago
  From what I know there is a single study with 1 east asian patient. I would not conclude anything from that.
- christkv 7y ago
  There is definitively different phenotypes https://www.medsci.org/v14p0639.htm https://www.medsci.org/v14p0639.htm What that means for the coronavirus is hard to say. Ideally we would know the composition of the cruise ship in japan of ethnicity (illness in each group, and outcome) and location on the ship so one can control for likelihood of being infected (I would guess having a room with a terrace might mean less chance of infection as you would not be only relying on AC air, but its a complete guess).
bart_spoon 7y ago
Seems like a jump to a conclusion that can be explained much more simply: the virus has started in China, and the neighboring countries are the next hardest hit. Seems to me like this would be the case for any novel disease for any region of the world. There seem to be plenty of non-Asians whom come in contact with the sick who in turn get sick. Its just that there are many fewer non-Asians coming into contact with the disease than Asians, for the time being.
izend 7y ago
Men and smokers are definitely more susceptible from the data right now.

Erlich_Bachman 7y ago

There is a useful daily updated dashboard that tracks all the cases, recoveries, death, geographical data and analytics about all that: http://avatorl.org/covid-19/ http://avatorl.org/covid-19/

ct0 7y ago
Here is an alternative from John Hopkins https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...
allovernow 7y ago
Those numbers are likely at least an order of magnitude underreported. They mirror the figures out of China, and there are a number of issues: 1. They follow a quadratic distribution over time with a regression coefficient of >.99. that's now how epidemics spread 2. China ran out of testing kits weeks ago. 3. Half of the population is on lockdown, and according to Chinese reports, even those who are sick and need to go to the hospital are not allowed to travel. So cases are not being counted 4. Even if they were able to do so, hospitals have been overwhelmed for weeks and have been turning cases away In addition to other reasons, the authoritarian CCP has shown a willingness to punish anyone who speaks toward how severe this infection actually is and their numbers absolutely cannot be trusted. Just look at the unprecedented response - 700 million people, 10% of the world's population, is under lockdown.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- z2 7y ago
  Can't speak to 2-4, but on 1., there seems to be research suggesting early epidemic growth can actually be quadratic: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27266847 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27266847 Specifically, it notes that "Sub-exponential growth profiles may result from heterogeneity in contact structures or risk groups, reactive behavior changes, or the early onset of interventions strategies, and consideration of "deceleration parameters" may be useful to refine existing mathematical transmission models and improve disease forecasts." Not sure if there are more striking examples of "reactionary behavior change" than a massive lockdown.

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

xvilka 7y ago

If you are not a scientist this doesn't mean you can't help fighting this particular or any other infectious and non-infectious disease. It is easy - just help to improve the tools that scientists and laboratories use. For example, something like BioJulia[1][2] and BioPython[3][4] - both have some issues[5][6] that need help with or accepting donations[7]. Or R packages, like survival[8]. There are many other tools that are used, feel free to list them in the comments. [1] https://biojulia.net/ https://biojulia.net/ [2] https://github.com/BioJulia https://github.com/BioJulia [3] https://biopython.org/ https://biopython.org/ [4] https://github.com/biopython/ https://github.com/biopython/ [5] https://github.com/BioJulia/BioSequences.jl/issues https://github.com/BioJulia/BioSequences.jl/issues [6] https://github.com/biopython/biopython/issues?q=label%3A%22help+wanted%22+is%3Aissue+is%3Aopen https://github.com/biopython/biopython/issues?q=label%3A%22h... [7] https://opencollective.com/biojulia#backer https://opencollective.com/biojulia#backer [8] https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/survival/index.html https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/survival/index.html

deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
vishbar 7y ago
Realistically, how well will someone with a nonspecialist knowledge of biology be able to contribute to these projects? That statement's not intended to pass judgement; I'd really like to know as it'd be great to contribute to a good cause.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- searine 7y ago
  A lot of bioinformatics specialists aren't talented programmers, they are biologists who know how to program as a means to an end. As a computer scientist you can add a lot of value by contributing to optimization and ease of use.
  - 7y ago

kragen 7y ago

Hopefully the pandemic has been delayed long enough to find effective treatments: https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/news/china-approves-favilavir-covid-19/ https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/news/china-approve... One month ago, on 2020-01-17, there were 62 confirmed COVID-19 cases in China. Now Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan without the Diamond Princess, and the Diamond Princess itself each independently have 62 or more confirmed cases. The rate of contagion within China has dropped dramatically, down from the neighborhood of 30% per day to the neighborhood of 3% per day. If a similar improvement plays out in Japan, Singapore — and countries like Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Australia, which probably have a lot more cases than those they've caught — it would take more than a year for the pandemic to reach its peak (log(7.7 billion / 73437)/log(1.03) ≈ 391), rather than the two months we've been predicting so far. That could provide enough time even for vaccination campaigns. There are people claiming that the slowdown in China is due to underreporting, but as far as I can tell that's pure speculation. It seems more likely that it's due to the Chinese health authorities putting 10% of the world population under near house arrest. ---- Some news about the Diamond Princess, though, from https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/02/19/national/diamond-princess-coronavirus/ https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/02/19/national/diamon... > All passengers aboard the cruise ship who have tested negative for the virus will be allowed to start disembarking Wednesday, health minister Katsunobu Kato said Tuesday, with the ministry having finished taking test samples from all passengers. ... > A group of 328 American passengers from the vessel left for home early Monday on planes chartered by the U.S. government. Over a dozen had tested positive for the virus. So the number of COVID-19 cases in the US has just gone from 15 to somewhere between 27 and 343, and the number in Japan is going from 74 to somewhere between 500 and 4000 today. Those repatriated to the US are subject to a 14-day quarantine, and I think Japan is taking similar measures, so maybe this won't fast-forward Japan from China's January 17 to China's January 26, in terms of spread of the disease. This is going to be very interesting, in the same way that oncoming headlights are very interesting to a deer. Note that this comment was originally voted down to -1. The anti-intellectual scum are out in force on HN today, it seems.

justforyou 7y ago
>> There are people claiming that the slowdown in China is due to underreporting, but as far as I can tell that's pure speculation. Occams razor is useful here.

christkv 7y ago

I really hope this can make it to market quickly as it would make it easier to protect ourselves. https://www.nature.com/articles/srep39956 https://www.nature.com/articles/srep39956

cpascal 7y ago

I think its more likely than not that COVID-19 will progress into a global pandemic. I don't think its a bad or rash idea to begin preparing to self-isolate/quarantine before panic-buying of supplies begins. Having a stock of non-perishable food, medication, masks, and disinfectants will definitely make things easier if COVID-19 can not be contained.

jerf 7y ago
There's two elements of prep work that anybody can and should do: 1. The cheap stuff that you may never use, but if you don't, isn't that big a deal: First aid kits, a supply of disinfectant, masks if it isn't already too late for that, etc. 2. Stuff you're going to buy anyhow, like canned food you already use, stuff you can easily freeze in advance without it being too big a deal, etc., that, again, you would have used anyhow. This is just pulling purchases forward rather than spending new money. After all, just because COVID-19 may in fact end up contained doesn't mean you're not going to be in a serious earthquake next week or something. Having this stuff widely distributed greatly increases the resiliency of society against all sorts of issues, means you'll be one less person draining valuable resources in case of some disaster, etc. Being at least a bit prepped is the socially responsible thing to do. Also, don't forget some of the specialized things for an extended in-home stay, which a lot of prep lists don't necessarily focus on (as a lot of them are assuming the problem is that you don't have a home anymore): Toilet paper, paper towels, salt & spices, etc. Anything you don't want to have to suddenly run out and get.
- Seenso 7y ago
  > masks if it isn't already too late for that, etc. I don't know about surgical masks, but N95 respirators have been nearly totally sold out at retailers for a couple weeks. I know there are questions abut the use of N95 respirators to prevent infection when used by nonprofessionals, but they seem more widely available to consumers (at hardware stores) compared to surgical masks, due to their use in construction.
  - cpascal 7y ago

ohazi 7y ago

> So far, at least 616 people have tested positive for the virus in Japan, including 542 from the ship and eight other cases across the nation on Tuesday. So basically the vast majority of Japan's cases are due to the colossal mismanagement of the quarantine on the ship. A cruise ship is not an appropriate location for a quarantine -- it's a 3000 person cesspool. Many of the 500-odd passengers and crew who are now sick would not have been infected if everyone had been immediately sent to their home countries for quarantine on return, instead of being forced to wallow in improperly isolated rooms on the ship. Also, you can't just quarantine for two weeks, you need to have a two week interval without any new infections. The two week counter should have been resetting every day that the "new infection count" wasn't zero. Many of the passengers who tested negative are already infected, but they're going to send them home unencumbered anyway. This number is 50 times higher than it needed to be, and will cause this pandemic to fucking explode. I hope somebody goes to jail for this.

sitkack 7y ago
Single biggest fck up in this whole thing. The PCR protocol should be pushed everywhere and test everyone that is symptomatic for any corona virus, meaning if you have a cold you should stay home until it passes.
4restm 7y ago
Iwata Kentaro, an infectious disease specialist, released a video with his criticisms of the ships quarantine. TL:DR bureaucracy is getting in the way of proper containment. There were no green/red containment areas. Personnel not wearing proper gear. He believes that bureaucrats in charge of the quarantine are actively blocking disease specialist from helping.
skrebbel 7y ago
> I hope somebody goes to jail for this. For incompetence?
- ceejayoz 7y ago
  Negligent homicide is a thing.

trenning 7y ago

Has the origin of this been discovered/ agreed upon by now? I don't follow this too closely but I remember discussions on here about the origin. It seemed very contentious at the time because it started in the same city as a research facility so there was questions of it being accidentally released vs appearing organically in the market. Slightly of-topic, but idk where else to ask about this.

theseadroid 7y ago
A recent paper suggested that there is strong evidence that SARS-CoV-2 is not the product of genetic engineering. source: http://virological.org/t/the-proximal-origin-of-sars-cov-2/398 http://virological.org/t/the-proximal-origin-of-sars-cov-2/3...
- trenning 7y ago
  Thanks for the link. Some cherry picked excerpts from the paper. > It is improbable that SARS-CoV-2 emerged through laboratory manipulation of an existing SARS-related coronavirus. As noted above, the RBD of SARS-CoV-2 is optimized for human ACE2 receptor binding with an efficient binding solution different to that which would have been predicted. Further, if genetic manipulation had been performed, one would expect that one of the several reverse genetic systems available for betacoronaviruses would have been used. However, this is not the case as the genetic data shows that SARS-CoV-2 is not derived from any previously used virus backbone17. Instead, we propose two scenarios that can plausibly explain the origin of SARS-CoV-2: (i) natural selection in a non-human animal host prior to zoonotic transfer, and (ii) natural selection in humans following zoonotic transfer. We also discuss whether selection during passage in culture could have given rise to the same observed features. > Although genomic evidence does not support the idea that SARS-CoV-2 is a laboratory construct, it is currently impossible to prove or disprove the other theories of its origin described here, and it is unclear whether future data will help resolve this issue. Identifying the immediate non-human animal source and obtaining virus sequences from it would be the most definitive way of revealing virus origins.
- nexuist 7y ago
  It can still be released from a lab without being genetically engineered. It is possible that they had a sample retrieved from a cave somewhere, and that is what somehow escaped. That would explain the unprecedented response. I think the conspiracy theorists are hoping for something more impressive other than "it was a lab accident." History has taught us that lab accidents are a bit more likely than we'd like to admit - see "Biohazard" by Ken Alibek. The Soviet Union (and China) had several accidental release incidents during his time in Biopreparat. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ken_Alibek https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ken_Alibek As it stands, we have no way of knowing if it came from an animal or this lab unless they tell us. Either is possible.

reustle 7y ago

Show HN: I made an open-source COVID-19 coronavirus tracker for Japan https://COVID19Japan.com https://COVID19Japan.com

huyegn 7y ago

Meanwhile a man from the Westerdam cruise ship, where one passenger already tested positive, escapes quarantine, books ubers, and multiple flights, is arriving back in Seattle: https://komonews.com/news/local/man-stranded-on-coronavirus-infected-cruise-ship-arrives-at-sea-tac-airport https://komonews.com/news/local/man-stranded-on-coronavirus-... Some people can't get more selfish. Also, what a colossal failure on the part of customs and immigration.

jesterson 7y ago
It's not about "just people" - look at those people at cruise ship, abandoned by Japan, abandoned by cruise company and their countries. Little knowledge needed to predict what would happen if those people were left on the ship under what japanese officials called "quarantine". What is it if not selfishness of the whole nations? So are we to blame this single passenger?

senordevnyc 7y ago

Is it just me or do COVID-19 stories get buried here much faster than their upvotes would justify? Flagging?

TurkishPoptart 7y ago

>Avoiding unprotected contact with farm or wild animals. Well, that's a nice way of saying it.