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China’s Economy Slows Sharply

389 points by prostoalex 8y ago

deleted 8y ago
[deleted]
barrow-rider 8y ago
Has it really slowed, or just been putting out shady statistics for a while that show growth that isn't there?
- volkl48 8y ago
  The article points to less easily faked data to indicate the slowdown, not the official statistics that are widely known to have a tenuous relationship with reality.
  - seanmcdirmid 8y ago
    Also known as the Li Keqian index. Too bad he has been marginalized by Xi.
  - coldtea 8y ago
    >are widely known to have a tenuous relationship with reality So, like the New York Times?
    - babygoat 8y ago
      citation needed
      - coldtea 8y ago
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judith_Miller https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judith_Miller and inversely: https://www.thenation.com/article/new-york-times-wants-gary-webb-stay-dead/ https://www.thenation.com/article/new-york-times-wants-gary-...
        Latteland 8y ago
        they sure screwed up during the iraq war. that's a big notable exception to their general excellence at writing about and discovering important and accurate things.
  - onlyrealcuzzo 8y ago
    Look -- I'm as skeptical of the Chinese miracle as anyone. But serious question: if the data was really as fake as everyone says, wouldn't the official and unofficial exchange rate of the Yuan be a lot larger? If the Chinese are basically pretending the economy has grown 500% and it's only grown 100%, wouldn't the value of the Yuan prove it?
    - tanilama 8y ago
      Yuan is a controlled currency
    - brobinson 8y ago
      The value of the yuan to what, the US dollar? It's pegged and maintained there using foreign currency reserves. It's occasionally adjusted so I guess it could be considered a "dirty float" if you want to stretch that definition a bit. Also: https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/new-study-shines-light-literally-on-chinas-and-russias-fake-gdp-data/ https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/new-study-shin...
    - landryraccoon 8y ago
      You can fake stats sure, but can you fake the fact that everything sold in an Apple store and half the stuff on Amazon or Walmart is made in China now?
      - sct202 8y ago
        Plus we have a pretty good gauge of trillions of $ of stuff that goes into China and trillions of $ of stuff that comes out that is not the same. Like really people, China is probably faking some stats, but they're clearly rich and making a ton of money and stuff.
        jjeaff 8y ago
        You say that as if manufacturing product for someone else was a highly profitable business. There is a reason more and more has gone overseas. The margins are vanishingly small and continuing to drop.
jacquesm 8y ago
And that is assuming that the previous and present day reporting are correct.
- anoncoward111 8y ago
  That's definitely an issue, but I would like to add that many of us feel the US govt too engages in lying through data. The biggest one in my mind is the unemployment rate. Even though Labor publishes nuanced statistics and revises them for accuracy, Trump and the media focus solely on the lowest tier of unemployment rate, which is the one below 4%. To be included in this rate, you must currently be receiving unemployment benefits from the state. Additionally, you must not be working part time at all, such as someone who drives uber for a few hours a week, or someone who picks up minimum wage shifts as a cashier or waiter. Lastly, you must submit weekly reports (through an imho easy to use online portal) of where you applied for jobs. You also cannot be in university, or living abroad (except Canada). These hurdles are enough to remove literal millions of people from the official unemployment stat vis a vis the workforce participation stat. And yet, the incessant focus on Unemployment Rate probably won't stop.
  - WrtCdEvrydy 8y ago
    Because people looking for work or in states with bad employment numbers can use it as a crutch. It's easy to blame the president for the reason your coal job is no longer around, yet as soon as people find employment, those on unemployment are moochers.
  - triviatise 8y ago
    There are multiple levels of unemployment U1-U6, they go from the most liberal to the most conservative view unemployment. Ultimately the absolute number doesnt matter that much, it is the trends. The "official" number is the U3, but if you prefer to use the U6 you can. No one is lying about unemployment. U1:[47] Percentage of labor force unemployed 15 weeks or longer. U2: Percentage of labor force who lost jobs or completed temporary work. U3: Official unemployment rate per the ILO definition occurs when people are without jobs and they have actively looked for work within the past four weeks.[48] U4: U3 + "discouraged workers", or those who have stopped looking for work because current economic conditions make them believe that no work is available for them. U5: U4 + other "marginally attached workers", or "loosely attached workers", or those who "would like" and are able to work, but have not looked for work recently. U6: U5 + Part-time workers who want to work full-time, but cannot due to economic reasons (underemployment). You could even consider the labor participation rate as an unemployment number. That would include retired people, the wealthy that don't need to work, stay at home moms etc.
rrggrr 8y ago
I continue to believe - as I've said in prior HN comments - that the Chinese leadership welcomes this slowdown and the related trade dispute as a means to rebalance the domestic economy, while placing the blame for the rebalancing on the United States. I note that at least one distinguished China watcher agrees: https://carnegieendowment.org/2018/07/27/china-s-best-option-for-responding-to-trade-war-pub-77039 https://carnegieendowment.org/2018/07/27/china-s-best-option...
- onlyrealcuzzo 8y ago
  This is actually pretty genius. Perhaps the Chinese economy is recession-proof. But I doubt it. It's at the height of a 30-year bull market. It doesn't seem insane that a downturn could happen. And the party seems to be pretty weak when the Chinese economy isn't doing swimmingly. If things finally do turn sour, what a convenient time. You can just blame it on someone else.
  - seanmcdirmid 8y ago
    The Chinese economy has had plenty of recessions in the last 30 years: 1990, 1998, even 2008 was probably a dip in real terms. It’s not like the economy hasn’t gone sour before.
    - gscott 8y ago
      This time I wonder if some businesses are moving out of China due to the instability of the relationship with the US and China, not to mention the future instabilities to come.
      - seanmcdirmid 8y ago
        I don’t think so, not yet anyways. Trump is probably a one term president, and most companies are thinking longer term. 1989-90 was much much worse.
        8y ago
diminish 8y ago
> Official data shows it grew 6.5 percent in the three months that ended in September, compared with a year earlier. Either Trumpism works, or the article is just weak.
- douglaswlance 8y ago
  Punishing unfair trade practices works. It's always worked.
  - swagasaurus-rex 8y ago
    For whom? The bigger player? The one with a trade deficit with the other? The one with less domestic supply of traded goods?
porpoisely 8y ago
I'm sure I've read this same story for the past 5 or even 10 years. I am certain that the chinese economy will face a recession one day and I am sure nobody in the media will know why or how. Maybe I'm alone in thinking these articles are such a waste of time. It tells us nothing.
- sonnyblarney 8y ago
  No, it tells us that the Chinese economy is slowing, and by all measures it has been over the last 10 years.
  - jjeaff 8y ago
    And there really is not telling how much it is slowing. Especially since the Chinese government is suspected/known to provide misleading or blatantly false economic statistics for the country.
- vertexFarm 8y ago
  The field of economics certainly has lots of problems with replication and pseudoscience and pigeon superstition, but I'd like to point out that when large-scale events naturally take decades to play out it's a common effect for people to dismiss it, saying "oh they've been saying that for the past fifteen years, let's just move on already." Sometimes things take that long. That kind of cognitive bias is making it difficult for our species to do any sort of proper long-term planning or even observation of slow problems.
contingencies 8y ago
These articles are coming thick and fast from three sources: The Washington Post, New York Times and Bloomberg. Nobody else (BBC, Australia, etc.) seems to be reporting the same, which leads me to believe there's a political element to this reporting, particularly amidst the current "trade war". (We don't see a rash of "US Economy Shows Sharply" every time something goes wrong for the US, although the trend is arguably toward crumbling infrastructure and reduced competitiveness across the board.) Against what therefore appears to be a propaganda-laden media landscape, I would merely add the observation that Chinese people and companies can more easily stomach slowdowns than the US because they save, don't tend to live highly leveraged and on subscription like Americans, don't need cars, and don't have a culture of mutual litigation or life-crushing medical bills. Therefore, to an American reading "these people lost their jobs a couple of months early" the effect is insanely worrisome and they believe this to be a huge problem. In China, having an extended holiday from your seasonal factory job is generally a non-issue... these people can either hang around and get other work, or economically hibernate back at home sharing meals with family and passing time on a tiny budget. It's a different world.
- whyonearth 8y ago
  Surely the markets took a hit today because the world's financial centers have all been duped by such propaganda. Look, even China-friendly South China Morning Post is in on the con, despicable. https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/2178089/china-economy-needs-new-stimulus-plan-after-november-data https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/2178089/c...
  - contingencies 8y ago
    On the contrary, SCMP is HK based and can often be seen to publish articles openly critical of Beijing, despite mainland ownership. (Edit: response to below: Yes, I think "formerly independent" as Wikipedia states is perhaps a good summary of SCMP's status, but I don't follow China media much. Used to read FEER a lot years ago, that was great but switched to a closed model and the best journos (some of whom I know) all left.)
mrkstu 8y ago
The pullback of outflows capital to foreign locations is the most telling to me. Chinese companies are starting to be net sellers instead of net acquirers of foreign assets. That would be fine if it was just because they were getting better return on their capital inside China, but in reality it is to pay back runaway debt and inability to complete asset purchases due to government capital controls. Those controls would be unnecessary if the Chinese economy was in a healthy state. The question isn't whether a contraction is in the offing, but how deep and large it is and what kind of knock on effects it has globally.
- CoolGuySteve 8y ago
  What happened in the early 90s recession when Japan pulled back on foreign investment? Did they cause the recession or were they wiped out by it? The only thing I remember as a teenager then was the Japanese briefly gaining and losing control of the NBC/GE conglomerate.
  - jandrese 8y ago
    IIRC overall the Japanese lost their shirt on those deals and it lead to an entire lost decade economically. I would not be surprised at all to learn that the Chinese government was inflating figures for political purposes and are in trouble now that the chickens are coming home to roost. It's super tempting for authoritarian regimes to cook the books to look better internationally. There was also seemingly a belief in the government that if they could maximize the trade surplus with the world they could somehow "win" at the economy.
    - antt 8y ago
      Funnily enough the 90s saw better growth for median incomes in Japan than the 10s have so far for the US. If anything Japan looks like they managed their crisis much better by pushing the losses up rather than down.
    - munificent 8y ago
      Adding context to your comment: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_Decade_(Japan) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_Decade_(Japan)
zachguo 8y ago
China's economy will slow, no doubt about it. CCP worries about it way more than Trump. But car sales and anecdotes are not really good ways to measure the economy. If you have doubt about those GDP numbers published by China. Take look at metrics such as freight traffic and trade stats.
- seanmcdirmid 8y ago
  You mean the Li Keqiang index. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li_Keqiang_index https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li_Keqiang_index
  - zachguo 8y ago
    Thanks for sharing.
nosleeptill 8y ago
Having done business in China, and having friends still in China, as one of them put it, "China has more problems than you can count." China is really a complex house of cards, it looks more foreboding than it actually is in reality. The second the economy slows the consumers hide, and go back to stuffing cash into their mattresses. I think Trump is a fool, but in the case of China I think we need a fool. Trump believes he's invincible, so he doesn't get caught up with the "apparent facts" about China and it's economy.
- dana321 8y ago
  Its not just China. Here in the UK for the first time, i've seen multiple billboards with nothing but scraps on them (they've deleted the adverts by scraping the remnants off)
  - nradov 8y ago
    Maybe advertisers have shifted their spending to social media?
  - tonyedgecombe 8y ago
    The advertising industry has continued to grow in the UK so I don't think you can read too much into your anecdote. https://www.statista.com/statistics/281583/advertising-spending-in-the-uk/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/281583/advertising-spend...
- RhodesianHunter 8y ago
  We've needed someone to push back against China for some time now. I just wish it had been in consultation with our allies instead of flipping the middle finger to all of them at the same time.
  - watertom 8y ago
    Everyone is scared of China, so getting our allies to work in concert wouldn't happen, that's why we need a fool. Once everyone realizes that China isn't a tiger, it's easier to get our allies on board. Western businesses have also wised up, realizing that partnering in China just means that you are forced to give away your IP. China is reliant on western countries partnering and giving away the IP for a shot at the Chinese market, but things have not panned out so well for Western countries because the consumer market in China is rigged against western companies. Also the consumers in China are scared rabbits, their motto is save, save, save, and then save more. It's going to take 2 or 3 generations to change the consumer habits. Manufacturing is starting to leave China for cheaper countries that don't require you to give away your IP, just like it took 40 years for China to become a manufacturing powerhouse, but it can unwind in a few years.
apo 8y ago
I think of China as epicenter of a gargantuine deflationary hurricane. The cycle goes something like this: 1. Chinese economy slows down. 2. Chinese leadership realizes it's only one real recession away from existential threat. 3. Chinese government floods the market with fake money. 4. Chinese factories expand and export still more goods, despite weak demand. 5. World inventories pile up, depressing prices across the board. 6. Factory orders dry up around the world, sending host economies downward. 7. GOTO 1.
- snaky 8y ago
  > Chinese leadership realizes it's only one real recession away from existential threat. That's true for at least 30 years now.
  - apo 8y ago
    According to Bloomberg, the last Chinese recession was 25 years ago: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-07-19/china-s-economy-is-different-no-recessions-in-a-quarter-century https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-07-19/china-... When the inevitable happens, it's going to be catastrophic. The entire population of young adults in a country of over 1 billion has never experienced a recession.
    - deleted 8y ago
      [deleted]
- the_duke 8y ago
  The US and the EU have been flooding the markets with money ever since the recession too, though, with low to negative interest rates and bond buys. The EU is in a worse state than the US with an interest rate of 0.0 and therefore no room to maneuver in case of a new downturn. For either three of those markets, the flooding can't continue indefinitely.
  - konschubert 8y ago
    The problem seems to be they flooding the markets with money and giving money to consumers are two different things.
askaboutit 8y ago
Every economy has a plateau then a fall, then a pull back up again. I think the aggressive trade stance and hard line politics by China might have played a major role. As it’s frightened both the local businesses and foreign businesses and lead to all global powers starting to put tariffs and trade barriers up, all due to China wanting to get away with pretty blatant violations of fair trade, huge import taxes on foreign goods, great firewall blocking any foreign purchase easily, hugely subsidised mail, forced ownership sharing, lowered safety regulations, lack of pollutant regulation etc. chuck in a house market with terrible quality at a high price and you’ve got a balloon waiting to pop. I don’t blame the Chinese for wanting to buy any house outside of China. But they’ve taken their “build junk make bank” mentality to the world and it can’t last much longer.
- mike986 8y ago
  > hugely subsidised mail I noticed this many years ago when ebay vendors from china were able to sell stuff for less that what one has to pay for shipping What's the implication here in this context?
  - Qworg 8y ago
    It is essentially abusing the UBU to subsidize trade from China. There was an excellent NPR story about it: https://www.npr.org/templates/transcript/transcript.php?storyId=634732388 https://www.npr.org/templates/transcript/transcript.php?stor...
    - aerophilic 8y ago
      Thank you for that link, I am somewhat that it hasn’t become a political issue given the current environment. Do you know if anyone is trying to address this issue?
      - Qworg 8y ago
        As far as I know, the US is making noise about it. I don't know if any real changes have occurred.
jiveturkey 8y ago
i hope this isn’t flamebait ... please treat it as an innocent question. has trump done a good thing or bad thing?
gerdesj 8y ago
"China’s economy has slowed sharply in recent months, presenting perhaps the biggest challenge to its top leader, Xi Jinping, in his six years of rule." Note the word: rule.
- singularity2001 8y ago
  what is so note-worthy about that?
  - DeonPenny 8y ago
    It's that he became the leader for life. So because there's no term rule is the better wording.
dana321 8y ago
Take a look, its not just China. Its everything.
bitxbit 8y ago
China’s problem is that its resource was cheap labor (or bluntly put modern day slavery).
resters 8y ago
Much like the now disgraced/debunked Judith Miller article helped garner massive support for Bush's Iraq war, this article is meant to support Trump's anti-China rhetoric and trade war. We're supposed to conclude that Trump's tariffs have dealt a serious blow to China's economy, and thus to suppress our disgust with the policy, since it will not take much more time for China to beg for respite. It should be obvious by now that there is a concerted effort to amplify unfavorable publicity for the Chinese government, the Chinese people, and the Chinese way of life. Also, fwiw, since when does it make sense to draw massive micro-economic conclusions from interviews from a handful of people? If this were news it would be an economic paper, not an article cobbled together out of a few interviews/quotes.
- HillaryBriss 8y ago
  > our disgust with the policy a prediction: the next US president (almost certainly a Democrat) will continue these policies or other very similar policies. the next president will not suddenly "lighten up" on China.
  - resters 8y ago
    I agree.
  - chillacy 8y ago
    I wonder if TPP would have fared better than tariff threats. That seemed to be the way Democrats we’re going to contain China, by forging trade alliances with SEA and chinas neighbors.
    - HillaryBriss 8y ago
      i don't know how big its effects would have been for the US economy. it seemed like there were pro/con TPP factions in the Democratic voter base. i recall Sanders being against TPP because he thought it was too favorable to certain US companies (e.g. pharma, entertainment) and their shareholders without doing much for workers or for other US industries.
- 8y ago
sealthedeal 8y ago
Trump?
deleted 8y ago
[deleted]
keepsimple 8y ago
As a Chinese grew up in China and have been living in US in recent years, I am already used to how US media reports about China. The bottom line: I have not seen _any_ US media reporting China truthfully. NPR is usually the worst, but others not much better. What happens is that, because of untruthful reporting in US media, people in US does not know or understand what's going on in China. It seems a miracle that such a big country grew like crazy in 30 years without democracy. But if you how much average Chinese invest in their education and how hard they work, you will not be surprised. The only real problem China is facing is its political system, not its economy. Compared to improving the political system, the economy is much, much easier.
- _martamoreno_ 8y ago
  Yeah right, and of course the political system has absolutely nothing to do with China's growth. And it's great if people work all day 16 hours every day of the week, are put to work and discipline since they were a child to absolutely remove any sense of creativity and freedom from their minds. Go China, Go! In truth it's actually the opposite. Chinese people living here in Canada have absolutely no clue whats wrong about their country, which is kindof expected if you grow up in such a system. Even though East-Germans seem to have done a better job of recognizing their stupid system. The difference might be that China prospers and east Germany did not.
- ximeng 8y ago
  Rather than generalising about all non-Chinese reporting about China you could comment specifically about what you think is misleading or untruthful about this specific article, that might be more enlightening.
- ardy42 8y ago
  > What happens is that, because of untruthful reporting in US media, people in US does not know or understand what's going on in China. So, in your view: 1. what's the real story about what's going on in China that's being missed in "untruthful" articles like this, and 2. who's reporting that story "truthfully"?
  - 8y ago
ngcc_hk 8y ago
Do not fall into the trip to analysis china using a communist Marx model based on economy and/or state level. It is always the People you worry about even though there is no democracy. Unlike Soviet Union, the chinese has moved out as people to the west for many years now. Huawei even nearly has a chance to use their code to get a strong hold of 5g. Can you even imagine Russia live in USA and with firm there or Hollywood need to get the agreement of china to ... The game is not just about a trade. The politics of playing of game of game from shaping the agenda, control the verb (discourse academic speak) and the hard to fight the culture (unlike Muslim you can have a perfect English speaking chinese working in most guarded place and then part of the 1000 person thing). I think the game at large is what is the “interesting” part and the west is losing to the horror of us who think human rights, Liberty, freedom to speak (or access information) is fundamental rights. But the west accept chinese can be on their own and even worry about their economy. You lost. If you play a game like this.
xttblog 8y ago
没有大家想象的那么差
- jmts 8y ago
  Google translates this to: "Not as bad as everyone thinks" https://translate.google.com/#view=home&op=translate&sl=auto&tl=en&text=%E6%B2%A1%E6%9C%89%E5%A4%A7%E5%AE%B6%E6%83%B3%E8%B1%A1%E7%9A%84%E9%82%A3%E4%B9%88%E5%B7%AE https://translate.google.com/#view=home&op=translate&sl=auto...
jeisc 8y ago
Laissez faire, telle devrait être la devise de toute puissance publique, depuis que le monde est civilisé ... Détestable principe que celui de ne vouloir grandir que par l'abaissement de nos voisins ! Il n'y a que la méchanceté et la malignité du cœur de satisfaites dans ce principe, et l’intérêt y est opposé. Laissez faire, morbleu ! Laissez faire !![4] "Let go, which should be the motto of all public power, since the world was civilized ... (It is) a detestable principle of those that want to enlarge (themselves) but by the abasement of our neighbours. There is but the wicked and the malignant heart(s) (who are) satisfied by this principle and (its) interest is opposed. Let go, alas".[5] — René Louis de Voyer de Paulmy d'Argenson https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laissez-faire https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laissez-faire
samfisher83 8y ago
30 year their economy was on par with India. Now it's on par with the us. Would some personal freedoms be great? Yep but I think having food in your stomach is more important. As long as they continue to do that Communist party will be ok.
gigatexal 8y ago
They should sell more knockoffs of popular products ;) Has there been any research into the truthfulness of the Chinese released growth numbers in the past? What’s to prevent them from inflating or artificially deflating them to serve some other purpose?
- yesforwhat 8y ago
  You might be right, but I don't think ANY country welcomes a real deep dive into how much of the global economy is fraudulent. No one will like the answer.
FatDrunknStupid 8y ago
Soon they'll do something stupid like print more money and call it quantitative easing. There's no one in control of this stuff - but still some countries attempt to hold back the tide.

389 points by prostoalex 8y ago

deleted 8y ago

[deleted]

barrow-rider 8y ago

Has it really slowed, or just been putting out shady statistics for a while that show growth that isn't there?

volkl48 8y ago
The article points to less easily faked data to indicate the slowdown, not the official statistics that are widely known to have a tenuous relationship with reality.
- seanmcdirmid 8y ago
  Also known as the Li Keqian index. Too bad he has been marginalized by Xi.
- coldtea 8y ago
  >are widely known to have a tenuous relationship with reality So, like the New York Times?
  - babygoat 8y ago
    citation needed
    - coldtea 8y ago
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judith_Miller https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judith_Miller and inversely: https://www.thenation.com/article/new-york-times-wants-gary-webb-stay-dead/ https://www.thenation.com/article/new-york-times-wants-gary-...
      - Latteland 8y ago
        they sure screwed up during the iraq war. that's a big notable exception to their general excellence at writing about and discovering important and accurate things.
- onlyrealcuzzo 8y ago
  Look -- I'm as skeptical of the Chinese miracle as anyone. But serious question: if the data was really as fake as everyone says, wouldn't the official and unofficial exchange rate of the Yuan be a lot larger? If the Chinese are basically pretending the economy has grown 500% and it's only grown 100%, wouldn't the value of the Yuan prove it?
  - tanilama 8y ago
    Yuan is a controlled currency
  - brobinson 8y ago
    The value of the yuan to what, the US dollar? It's pegged and maintained there using foreign currency reserves. It's occasionally adjusted so I guess it could be considered a "dirty float" if you want to stretch that definition a bit. Also: https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/new-study-shines-light-literally-on-chinas-and-russias-fake-gdp-data/ https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/new-study-shin...
  - landryraccoon 8y ago
    You can fake stats sure, but can you fake the fact that everything sold in an Apple store and half the stuff on Amazon or Walmart is made in China now?
    - sct202 8y ago
      Plus we have a pretty good gauge of trillions of $ of stuff that goes into China and trillions of $ of stuff that comes out that is not the same. Like really people, China is probably faking some stats, but they're clearly rich and making a ton of money and stuff.
      - jjeaff 8y ago
        You say that as if manufacturing product for someone else was a highly profitable business. There is a reason more and more has gone overseas. The margins are vanishingly small and continuing to drop.

jacquesm 8y ago

And that is assuming that the previous and present day reporting are correct.

anoncoward111 8y ago
That's definitely an issue, but I would like to add that many of us feel the US govt too engages in lying through data. The biggest one in my mind is the unemployment rate. Even though Labor publishes nuanced statistics and revises them for accuracy, Trump and the media focus solely on the lowest tier of unemployment rate, which is the one below 4%. To be included in this rate, you must currently be receiving unemployment benefits from the state. Additionally, you must not be working part time at all, such as someone who drives uber for a few hours a week, or someone who picks up minimum wage shifts as a cashier or waiter. Lastly, you must submit weekly reports (through an imho easy to use online portal) of where you applied for jobs. You also cannot be in university, or living abroad (except Canada). These hurdles are enough to remove literal millions of people from the official unemployment stat vis a vis the workforce participation stat. And yet, the incessant focus on Unemployment Rate probably won't stop.
- WrtCdEvrydy 8y ago
  Because people looking for work or in states with bad employment numbers can use it as a crutch. It's easy to blame the president for the reason your coal job is no longer around, yet as soon as people find employment, those on unemployment are moochers.
- triviatise 8y ago
  There are multiple levels of unemployment U1-U6, they go from the most liberal to the most conservative view unemployment. Ultimately the absolute number doesnt matter that much, it is the trends. The "official" number is the U3, but if you prefer to use the U6 you can. No one is lying about unemployment. U1:[47] Percentage of labor force unemployed 15 weeks or longer. U2: Percentage of labor force who lost jobs or completed temporary work. U3: Official unemployment rate per the ILO definition occurs when people are without jobs and they have actively looked for work within the past four weeks.[48] U4: U3 + "discouraged workers", or those who have stopped looking for work because current economic conditions make them believe that no work is available for them. U5: U4 + other "marginally attached workers", or "loosely attached workers", or those who "would like" and are able to work, but have not looked for work recently. U6: U5 + Part-time workers who want to work full-time, but cannot due to economic reasons (underemployment). You could even consider the labor participation rate as an unemployment number. That would include retired people, the wealthy that don't need to work, stay at home moms etc.

rrggrr 8y ago

I continue to believe - as I've said in prior HN comments - that the Chinese leadership welcomes this slowdown and the related trade dispute as a means to rebalance the domestic economy, while placing the blame for the rebalancing on the United States. I note that at least one distinguished China watcher agrees: https://carnegieendowment.org/2018/07/27/china-s-best-option-for-responding-to-trade-war-pub-77039 https://carnegieendowment.org/2018/07/27/china-s-best-option...

onlyrealcuzzo 8y ago
This is actually pretty genius. Perhaps the Chinese economy is recession-proof. But I doubt it. It's at the height of a 30-year bull market. It doesn't seem insane that a downturn could happen. And the party seems to be pretty weak when the Chinese economy isn't doing swimmingly. If things finally do turn sour, what a convenient time. You can just blame it on someone else.
- seanmcdirmid 8y ago
  The Chinese economy has had plenty of recessions in the last 30 years: 1990, 1998, even 2008 was probably a dip in real terms. It’s not like the economy hasn’t gone sour before.
  - gscott 8y ago
    This time I wonder if some businesses are moving out of China due to the instability of the relationship with the US and China, not to mention the future instabilities to come.
    - seanmcdirmid 8y ago
      I don’t think so, not yet anyways. Trump is probably a one term president, and most companies are thinking longer term. 1989-90 was much much worse.
      - 8y ago

diminish 8y ago

> Official data shows it grew 6.5 percent in the three months that ended in September, compared with a year earlier. Either Trumpism works, or the article is just weak.

douglaswlance 8y ago
Punishing unfair trade practices works. It's always worked.
- swagasaurus-rex 8y ago
  For whom? The bigger player? The one with a trade deficit with the other? The one with less domestic supply of traded goods?

porpoisely 8y ago

I'm sure I've read this same story for the past 5 or even 10 years. I am certain that the chinese economy will face a recession one day and I am sure nobody in the media will know why or how. Maybe I'm alone in thinking these articles are such a waste of time. It tells us nothing.

sonnyblarney 8y ago
No, it tells us that the Chinese economy is slowing, and by all measures it has been over the last 10 years.
- jjeaff 8y ago
  And there really is not telling how much it is slowing. Especially since the Chinese government is suspected/known to provide misleading or blatantly false economic statistics for the country.
vertexFarm 8y ago
The field of economics certainly has lots of problems with replication and pseudoscience and pigeon superstition, but I'd like to point out that when large-scale events naturally take decades to play out it's a common effect for people to dismiss it, saying "oh they've been saying that for the past fifteen years, let's just move on already." Sometimes things take that long. That kind of cognitive bias is making it difficult for our species to do any sort of proper long-term planning or even observation of slow problems.

contingencies 8y ago

These articles are coming thick and fast from three sources: The Washington Post, New York Times and Bloomberg. Nobody else (BBC, Australia, etc.) seems to be reporting the same, which leads me to believe there's a political element to this reporting, particularly amidst the current "trade war". (We don't see a rash of "US Economy Shows Sharply" every time something goes wrong for the US, although the trend is arguably toward crumbling infrastructure and reduced competitiveness across the board.) Against what therefore appears to be a propaganda-laden media landscape, I would merely add the observation that Chinese people and companies can more easily stomach slowdowns than the US because they save, don't tend to live highly leveraged and on subscription like Americans, don't need cars, and don't have a culture of mutual litigation or life-crushing medical bills. Therefore, to an American reading "these people lost their jobs a couple of months early" the effect is insanely worrisome and they believe this to be a huge problem. In China, having an extended holiday from your seasonal factory job is generally a non-issue... these people can either hang around and get other work, or economically hibernate back at home sharing meals with family and passing time on a tiny budget. It's a different world.

whyonearth 8y ago
Surely the markets took a hit today because the world's financial centers have all been duped by such propaganda. Look, even China-friendly South China Morning Post is in on the con, despicable. https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/2178089/china-economy-needs-new-stimulus-plan-after-november-data https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/2178089/c...
- contingencies 8y ago
  On the contrary, SCMP is HK based and can often be seen to publish articles openly critical of Beijing, despite mainland ownership. (Edit: response to below: Yes, I think "formerly independent" as Wikipedia states is perhaps a good summary of SCMP's status, but I don't follow China media much. Used to read FEER a lot years ago, that was great but switched to a closed model and the best journos (some of whom I know) all left.)

mrkstu 8y ago

The pullback of outflows capital to foreign locations is the most telling to me. Chinese companies are starting to be net sellers instead of net acquirers of foreign assets. That would be fine if it was just because they were getting better return on their capital inside China, but in reality it is to pay back runaway debt and inability to complete asset purchases due to government capital controls. Those controls would be unnecessary if the Chinese economy was in a healthy state. The question isn't whether a contraction is in the offing, but how deep and large it is and what kind of knock on effects it has globally.

CoolGuySteve 8y ago
What happened in the early 90s recession when Japan pulled back on foreign investment? Did they cause the recession or were they wiped out by it? The only thing I remember as a teenager then was the Japanese briefly gaining and losing control of the NBC/GE conglomerate.
- jandrese 8y ago
  IIRC overall the Japanese lost their shirt on those deals and it lead to an entire lost decade economically. I would not be surprised at all to learn that the Chinese government was inflating figures for political purposes and are in trouble now that the chickens are coming home to roost. It's super tempting for authoritarian regimes to cook the books to look better internationally. There was also seemingly a belief in the government that if they could maximize the trade surplus with the world they could somehow "win" at the economy.
  - antt 8y ago
    Funnily enough the 90s saw better growth for median incomes in Japan than the 10s have so far for the US. If anything Japan looks like they managed their crisis much better by pushing the losses up rather than down.
  - munificent 8y ago
    Adding context to your comment: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_Decade_(Japan) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_Decade_(Japan)

zachguo 8y ago

China's economy will slow, no doubt about it. CCP worries about it way more than Trump. But car sales and anecdotes are not really good ways to measure the economy. If you have doubt about those GDP numbers published by China. Take look at metrics such as freight traffic and trade stats.

seanmcdirmid 8y ago
You mean the Li Keqiang index. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li_Keqiang_index https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li_Keqiang_index
- zachguo 8y ago
  Thanks for sharing.

nosleeptill 8y ago

Having done business in China, and having friends still in China, as one of them put it, "China has more problems than you can count." China is really a complex house of cards, it looks more foreboding than it actually is in reality. The second the economy slows the consumers hide, and go back to stuffing cash into their mattresses. I think Trump is a fool, but in the case of China I think we need a fool. Trump believes he's invincible, so he doesn't get caught up with the "apparent facts" about China and it's economy.

dana321 8y ago
Its not just China. Here in the UK for the first time, i've seen multiple billboards with nothing but scraps on them (they've deleted the adverts by scraping the remnants off)
- nradov 8y ago
  Maybe advertisers have shifted their spending to social media?
- tonyedgecombe 8y ago
  The advertising industry has continued to grow in the UK so I don't think you can read too much into your anecdote. https://www.statista.com/statistics/281583/advertising-spending-in-the-uk/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/281583/advertising-spend...
RhodesianHunter 8y ago
We've needed someone to push back against China for some time now. I just wish it had been in consultation with our allies instead of flipping the middle finger to all of them at the same time.
- watertom 8y ago
  Everyone is scared of China, so getting our allies to work in concert wouldn't happen, that's why we need a fool. Once everyone realizes that China isn't a tiger, it's easier to get our allies on board. Western businesses have also wised up, realizing that partnering in China just means that you are forced to give away your IP. China is reliant on western countries partnering and giving away the IP for a shot at the Chinese market, but things have not panned out so well for Western countries because the consumer market in China is rigged against western companies. Also the consumers in China are scared rabbits, their motto is save, save, save, and then save more. It's going to take 2 or 3 generations to change the consumer habits. Manufacturing is starting to leave China for cheaper countries that don't require you to give away your IP, just like it took 40 years for China to become a manufacturing powerhouse, but it can unwind in a few years.

apo 8y ago

I think of China as epicenter of a gargantuine deflationary hurricane. The cycle goes something like this: 1. Chinese economy slows down. 2. Chinese leadership realizes it's only one real recession away from existential threat. 3. Chinese government floods the market with fake money. 4. Chinese factories expand and export still more goods, despite weak demand. 5. World inventories pile up, depressing prices across the board. 6. Factory orders dry up around the world, sending host economies downward. 7. GOTO 1.

snaky 8y ago
> Chinese leadership realizes it's only one real recession away from existential threat. That's true for at least 30 years now.
- apo 8y ago
  According to Bloomberg, the last Chinese recession was 25 years ago: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-07-19/china-s-economy-is-different-no-recessions-in-a-quarter-century https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-07-19/china-... When the inevitable happens, it's going to be catastrophic. The entire population of young adults in a country of over 1 billion has never experienced a recession.
  - deleted 8y ago
    [deleted]
the_duke 8y ago
The US and the EU have been flooding the markets with money ever since the recession too, though, with low to negative interest rates and bond buys. The EU is in a worse state than the US with an interest rate of 0.0 and therefore no room to maneuver in case of a new downturn. For either three of those markets, the flooding can't continue indefinitely.
- konschubert 8y ago
  The problem seems to be they flooding the markets with money and giving money to consumers are two different things.

askaboutit 8y ago

Every economy has a plateau then a fall, then a pull back up again. I think the aggressive trade stance and hard line politics by China might have played a major role. As it’s frightened both the local businesses and foreign businesses and lead to all global powers starting to put tariffs and trade barriers up, all due to China wanting to get away with pretty blatant violations of fair trade, huge import taxes on foreign goods, great firewall blocking any foreign purchase easily, hugely subsidised mail, forced ownership sharing, lowered safety regulations, lack of pollutant regulation etc. chuck in a house market with terrible quality at a high price and you’ve got a balloon waiting to pop. I don’t blame the Chinese for wanting to buy any house outside of China. But they’ve taken their “build junk make bank” mentality to the world and it can’t last much longer.

mike986 8y ago
> hugely subsidised mail I noticed this many years ago when ebay vendors from china were able to sell stuff for less that what one has to pay for shipping What's the implication here in this context?
- Qworg 8y ago
  It is essentially abusing the UBU to subsidize trade from China. There was an excellent NPR story about it: https://www.npr.org/templates/transcript/transcript.php?storyId=634732388 https://www.npr.org/templates/transcript/transcript.php?stor...
  - aerophilic 8y ago
    Thank you for that link, I am somewhat that it hasn’t become a political issue given the current environment. Do you know if anyone is trying to address this issue?
    - Qworg 8y ago
      As far as I know, the US is making noise about it. I don't know if any real changes have occurred.

jiveturkey 8y ago

i hope this isn’t flamebait ... please treat it as an innocent question. has trump done a good thing or bad thing?

gerdesj 8y ago

"China’s economy has slowed sharply in recent months, presenting perhaps the biggest challenge to its top leader, Xi Jinping, in his six years of rule." Note the word: rule.

singularity2001 8y ago
what is so note-worthy about that?
- DeonPenny 8y ago
  It's that he became the leader for life. So because there's no term rule is the better wording.

dana321 8y ago

Take a look, its not just China. Its everything.

bitxbit 8y ago

China’s problem is that its resource was cheap labor (or bluntly put modern day slavery).

resters 8y ago

Much like the now disgraced/debunked Judith Miller article helped garner massive support for Bush's Iraq war, this article is meant to support Trump's anti-China rhetoric and trade war. We're supposed to conclude that Trump's tariffs have dealt a serious blow to China's economy, and thus to suppress our disgust with the policy, since it will not take much more time for China to beg for respite. It should be obvious by now that there is a concerted effort to amplify unfavorable publicity for the Chinese government, the Chinese people, and the Chinese way of life. Also, fwiw, since when does it make sense to draw massive micro-economic conclusions from interviews from a handful of people? If this were news it would be an economic paper, not an article cobbled together out of a few interviews/quotes.

HillaryBriss 8y ago
> our disgust with the policy a prediction: the next US president (almost certainly a Democrat) will continue these policies or other very similar policies. the next president will not suddenly "lighten up" on China.
- resters 8y ago
  I agree.
- chillacy 8y ago
  I wonder if TPP would have fared better than tariff threats. That seemed to be the way Democrats we’re going to contain China, by forging trade alliances with SEA and chinas neighbors.
  - HillaryBriss 8y ago
    i don't know how big its effects would have been for the US economy. it seemed like there were pro/con TPP factions in the Democratic voter base. i recall Sanders being against TPP because he thought it was too favorable to certain US companies (e.g. pharma, entertainment) and their shareholders without doing much for workers or for other US industries.
8y ago

sealthedeal 8y ago

Trump?

deleted 8y ago

[deleted]

keepsimple 8y ago

As a Chinese grew up in China and have been living in US in recent years, I am already used to how US media reports about China. The bottom line: I have not seen _any_ US media reporting China truthfully. NPR is usually the worst, but others not much better. What happens is that, because of untruthful reporting in US media, people in US does not know or understand what's going on in China. It seems a miracle that such a big country grew like crazy in 30 years without democracy. But if you how much average Chinese invest in their education and how hard they work, you will not be surprised. The only real problem China is facing is its political system, not its economy. Compared to improving the political system, the economy is much, much easier.

_martamoreno_ 8y ago
Yeah right, and of course the political system has absolutely nothing to do with China's growth. And it's great if people work all day 16 hours every day of the week, are put to work and discipline since they were a child to absolutely remove any sense of creativity and freedom from their minds. Go China, Go! In truth it's actually the opposite. Chinese people living here in Canada have absolutely no clue whats wrong about their country, which is kindof expected if you grow up in such a system. Even though East-Germans seem to have done a better job of recognizing their stupid system. The difference might be that China prospers and east Germany did not.
ximeng 8y ago
Rather than generalising about all non-Chinese reporting about China you could comment specifically about what you think is misleading or untruthful about this specific article, that might be more enlightening.
ardy42 8y ago
> What happens is that, because of untruthful reporting in US media, people in US does not know or understand what's going on in China. So, in your view: 1. what's the real story about what's going on in China that's being missed in "untruthful" articles like this, and 2. who's reporting that story "truthfully"?
- 8y ago

ngcc_hk 8y ago

Do not fall into the trip to analysis china using a communist Marx model based on economy and/or state level. It is always the People you worry about even though there is no democracy. Unlike Soviet Union, the chinese has moved out as people to the west for many years now. Huawei even nearly has a chance to use their code to get a strong hold of 5g. Can you even imagine Russia live in USA and with firm there or Hollywood need to get the agreement of china to ... The game is not just about a trade. The politics of playing of game of game from shaping the agenda, control the verb (discourse academic speak) and the hard to fight the culture (unlike Muslim you can have a perfect English speaking chinese working in most guarded place and then part of the 1000 person thing). I think the game at large is what is the “interesting” part and the west is losing to the horror of us who think human rights, Liberty, freedom to speak (or access information) is fundamental rights. But the west accept chinese can be on their own and even worry about their economy. You lost. If you play a game like this.

xttblog 8y ago

没有大家想象的那么差

jmts 8y ago
Google translates this to: "Not as bad as everyone thinks" https://translate.google.com/#view=home&op=translate&sl=auto&tl=en&text=%E6%B2%A1%E6%9C%89%E5%A4%A7%E5%AE%B6%E6%83%B3%E8%B1%A1%E7%9A%84%E9%82%A3%E4%B9%88%E5%B7%AE https://translate.google.com/#view=home&op=translate&sl=auto...

jeisc 8y ago

Laissez faire, telle devrait être la devise de toute puissance publique, depuis que le monde est civilisé ... Détestable principe que celui de ne vouloir grandir que par l'abaissement de nos voisins ! Il n'y a que la méchanceté et la malignité du cœur de satisfaites dans ce principe, et l’intérêt y est opposé. Laissez faire, morbleu ! Laissez faire !![4] "Let go, which should be the motto of all public power, since the world was civilized ... (It is) a detestable principle of those that want to enlarge (themselves) but by the abasement of our neighbours. There is but the wicked and the malignant heart(s) (who are) satisfied by this principle and (its) interest is opposed. Let go, alas".[5] — René Louis de Voyer de Paulmy d'Argenson https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laissez-faire https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laissez-faire

samfisher83 8y ago

30 year their economy was on par with India. Now it's on par with the us. Would some personal freedoms be great? Yep but I think having food in your stomach is more important. As long as they continue to do that Communist party will be ok.

gigatexal 8y ago

They should sell more knockoffs of popular products ;) Has there been any research into the truthfulness of the Chinese released growth numbers in the past? What’s to prevent them from inflating or artificially deflating them to serve some other purpose?

yesforwhat 8y ago
You might be right, but I don't think ANY country welcomes a real deep dive into how much of the global economy is fraudulent. No one will like the answer.

FatDrunknStupid 8y ago

Soon they'll do something stupid like print more money and call it quantitative easing. There's no one in control of this stuff - but still some countries attempt to hold back the tide.