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The Near Future of Electric Cars: Many Models, Few Buyers

97 points by osrec 9y ago

codeulike 9y ago
I thought this article would annoy me but its actually quite interesting. Basic premise is: Tesla has the rest of the industry scared, so they're all rushing to announce electric models so they don't get left behind. But if we assume the switchover to electric is coming in the next decade or two, how do big automakers decide how fast to transfer? Too fast is a risk due to capital expenditure on battery factories etc. Too slow is a risk due to being left behind. Perhaps this explains why traditional auto manufacturers seem to be constantly announcing exciting electric models that are still 3 to 5 years away - they can appear to be staying in the game without doing too much.
- 11thEarlOfMar 9y ago
  Historically, there have been a variety of reasons why electric cars did not take substantial market share. You likely know what they are: Range anxiety, lack of charging infrastructure, poor performance, funky styling, 'general dorkiness', .... The current independents have focused on these issues and in many cases, clearly eliminated them. Moreover, the market itself has evolved with the US in particular finally starting to wake up to environmental issues (T notwithstanding), and China making strident environmental policy out of pure desperation. Add to the situation that a popular figurehead with a superhero alter-ego is leading the way with awe-inspiring (crash inducing) feats of science and technology, and I think we'll all be surprised at how fast electric vehicles become mainstream.
  - codeulike 9y ago
    Agreed. I drive a Leaf and I think the switchover is going to come faster than people think. Nonetheless its an interesting article despite its slightly sniffy attitude to electrics because it highlights the scary predicament that the big automakers find themselves in.
    - jseliger 9y ago
      I drive a Leaf and I think the switchover is going to come faster than people think Yes. That's the other thing: the best argument for an electric car is driving one—particularly a Tesla. The minute most of the population has access to one (from a friend, family, whatever), they're going to want one.
    - rconti 9y ago
      Yeah. I've got a couple of good old fashioned regular performance cars here in the SF bay area. I'd love to have the excuse (read: carpool lane access, long commute, whatever) to buy an electric but there's just no "need" in my life for a new vehicle. That said, the penetration rate of electric vehicles as a proportion of new vehicles here is staggering. The Model S easily outsells any competitor's luxury car in the same class, you'd have to combine all A6 / 5 series / E Class sales to even hope to show the same numbers. And I can see why -- if you want to plunk down all this cash for a new car, why not get something truly new, not something outdated? My uncle is very frugal and has spent years looking at buying a new car and then up and ordered a (very base) Model S with the reasoning, if I'm spending all this money, I want to spend the money on future tech, not old tech. Even sitting in my 2016 car this morning, in the cold, I was thinking how silly it is that I have to wait for the coolant in the car to warm up before the heater starts blowing hot, and how funny all of the ICE cars look with steam coming out of the exhaust on a cold morning. It already feels out of date.
      - codeulike 9y ago
        You might enjoy this tongue-in-cheek 'Test Drive of a Petrol Car' written by a Swedish Tesla owner back in 2015 http://teslaclubsweden.se/test-drive-of-a-petrol-car/ http://teslaclubsweden.se/test-drive-of-a-petrol-car/
        BatFastard 9y ago
        That is fabulous!
      - mikestew 9y ago
  - nicoburns 9y ago
    I thought it was interesting that the article focussed on trends in the US market, which seems the least EV-friendly (from what I hear, fuel prices are half what they are in the EU).
  - keldaris 9y ago
    To offer a slightly anecdotal counterpoint, if you discard ideological reasons and generous subsidies available in a few markets, I have no idea why anyone would buy an electric car right now. The range and the charging times are still an issue, especially if you don't live in California. The performance of most electric cars is abysmal (straight line speed may be all right, but cornering with the extra weight is just inferior) compared to traditional performance cars and while styling is subjective, the only electric car I've seen that wasn't outright ugly was the BMW i8, and that's a hybrid. That's not to mention the fact that they still carry a severe price premium in most markets. I realize my opinion will be highly controversial in the HN bubble, but I find it to be very common in real life, particularly outside the U.S. Like any future prediction, I'm probably way off, but to me it looks like on the list of vastly overhyped car trends pure electric cars are second only to self-driving cars. I'm sure they'll find specific markets (taxis, urban deliveries, etc.), but I don't see myself switching to an electric car for at least a decade, probably more.
    - reaperducer 9y ago
      In the cities I've lived in over the last 15 years, probably 90% of the taxis have been hybrid. I've seen FedEx, and even Coca-Cola running electric delivery trucks in urban areas. I think a wholesale shift from gas/diesel to electric is a long way off, but certainly it seems that electric/hybrid is the end of compressed natural gas vehicles.
      - Animats 9y ago
        Shenzhen just converted their entire bus fleet, 30,000 buses, to all electric.
        reaperducer 9y ago
        Seattle, Vancouver, and other cities with abundant hydroelectric power have had electric bus fleets since at least the 1960's. Probably earlier. The only difference now is that instead of running wires overhead, you have to install charging stations.
    - 9y ago
  - reaperducer 9y ago
    Building on your "lack of charging infrastructure," I think it's worth noting that there has been a huge shift from owning to renting in the last decade or so. It's easy to add an electric charger to a house you own, but if you rent the house or apartment, it's not going to happen. If you live in a newer apartment building, you might get lucky and they'll have chargers in the parking garage. But when I lived in such a building in Chicago, the chargers were ALWAYS full. It was a large building, and there were probably 40 or 50 of them across a five-story garage.
    - toomuchtodo 9y ago
      Both California and Illinois mandate by law rentals allowing you to install a charger (at your cost). Other states have similar legislation pending.
      - chc 9y ago
        That doesn't seem like a very good deal, though. You have to pay a sizable chunk of cash to improve somebody else's property and insure it for a million dollars. That is a much worse proposition than installing a charger in your house. I'm not sure how useful it is to your average renter who is just looking to buy a car.
        toomuchtodo 9y ago
        It’s a happy medium until we can improve on the situation.
        plorkyeran 9y ago
        Installing a home charging station costs around $2000 these days. If you're buying a $30-60k car and move infrequently it won't be that huge of a portion of the total cost of ownership of the car.
        Dylan16807 9y ago
        And a dryer outlet, which is plenty for home charging, is just a fraction of that much.
  - jsz0 9y ago
    I think gasoline engines will stick around much longer than most people expect. They are a known commodity and many people have invested time and money into learning how to operate and maintain them. For example it's been brutally cold where I live lately and I know my gasoline engine works just fine in these conditions. If it fails to crank I know how to jump start it. I know to let it warm up a bit before turning high RPMs. I don't know anything about how electric cars would fare in these cold conditions. They may work just fine too but I have no experience to back that up. I'll learn at some point but a lot of people never will.
    - funnelsgun 9y ago
      I agree, I think we have at least another one, perhaps two decades with gasoline engines. The sad news is that displacement will continue to get smaller, even in sports cars. The transition from the Porsche 981 to 718 is a great example of how to ruin the perfect sports car.
    - codeulike 9y ago
      FYI, in cold weather this is what you need to do with an electric car: 1. Turn it on 2. Drive off Optionally, step 0: Use the app on your phone to tell the car to warm up, defrost the windscreen etc while you are in the house having breakfast. Range does suffer in cold temperatures; similarly ICE engines are less efficient in cold temperatures.
  - deleted 9y ago
    [deleted]
  - tschwimmer 9y ago
    I think cost is a big one too. Nearly all electric cars in the US could be considered 'Luxury' by price tag. The Leaf is an exception, but it also scores high on the factors you've listed so its lukewarm reception is understandable.
    - codeulike 9y ago
      See also: Chevvy Bolt, Tesla Model 3
- maxerickson 9y ago
  Haven't GM and Nissan both shipped more "mass market" electric cars than Tesla?
  - codeulike 9y ago
    Nissan had, at some point, sold more Leafs than Tesla ahad sold Model S's, because Tesla didn't really start selling cars in large numbers till 2013 so Nissan had a bit of a head start. I don't think GM have sold that many pure electrics although the Bolt is out-producing the Model 3 right at this moment. But if you factor in Tesla's plans for the next 24 months or so, which they seem capable of pulling off, then no-one else is going to be able to catch up with them for five years or so.
    - maxerickson 9y ago
      When I say "mass market" I'm talking about cars that start less than $50,000 (and then it's still sarcastic). If Tesla are moving faster than everyone else backwards looking metrics should pick up on it soon enough.
      - codeulike 9y ago
        Well OK, yes, I kindof missed your "mass market" specifier. Tesla have only shipped a few thousand Model 3's so far. But they have 400,000 reservations that they intend to fulfil in the next 24 months or so. And that's a big challenge to everyone else.
- nihonde 9y ago
  I don’t think companies like Toyota are scared of Tesla. I think they’re skeptical of American consumers’ sudden shift in willingness to buy electric, after decades of mixed signals (to put it lightly). The Prius was a huge hit, and every automaker wants to hit that sweet spot next. It’s not about technology alone. You need to read the buyers, and America vacillates wildly between being eager to ditch ice, and stubbornly anti-green.
  - netsuso 9y ago
    This is not (only) about being green. Electric cars are a pleasure to drive, they are less costly to maintain and repair (far less moving pieces), they are cheaper to run (at least in Europe, don't know in the US), and you can charge them at home (this is more of an advantage in the US than in Europe). Even the most anti-green buyers will prefer electric vehicles in ~10 years (if no sooner)
    - geerlingguy 9y ago
      After test driving a Tesla, and seeing how much better the simple driving experience will be in a decent electric car (one pedal driving, heating and cooling divorced from a running and wasteful/toxic engine, a car that gets software updates for more than 6 months...), I don’t think I can ever consider buying another ICE. If I still commuted, I’d find some way to justify a Bolt, Leaf, or Model 3.
      - funnelsgun 9y ago
        Lithium ion batteries are both toxic in production and disposal.
        toomuchtodo 9y ago
        The first version of your post said that lithium ion batteries were toxic in production and disposal (both claims entirely false). You've now changed the entire comment to CO2 output for battery production (even though battery production will continue to decline in CO2 impact as grid energy sources continue to tilt towards renewables). > Therefore, the study has calculated that a fossil fuel vehicle can currently drive for more than eight years before it reaches the same environmental impact of a Tesla. For the Nissan Leaf, with its smaller capacity battery, this figure comes in at three years. Both Teslas and Leafs will be on the road beyond the eight and three years you quoted, putting their production at a net positive even before the above mentioned improvements take place.
- mtgx 9y ago
  Soon their biggest problem won't even be "making a good EV", because they all seem to have started working on EV platforms from scratch - which, let's not kid ourselves - they would've never done if not for Tesla. They would've just dragged their feet re-purposing old ICE cars into EVs, which has significant drawbacks in terms of overall battery efficiency as well as maximum range. So now that this is (almost) out of the way, their biggest problem will be making batteries fast enough. I predict that once there are enough models on the market and the prices are much more competitive compared to ICE cars, which should happen around 2022, there will be an explosion in demand. And it's going to take them off-guard because they won't have enough battery supply planned out for the short 1-2 year term. They'll have to "drop everything" and start building battery factories like crazy. I'm talking a total demand of close to 1 TWh year, by 2025, for EVs alone (which should be maybe around 15-20 million EVs a year, globally). The only one that will sale through smoothly will be Tesla at that point, which by 2023 will likely have a second gigafactory close to finished, and even Tesla may struggle a bit to keep up with the demand, because they'll have not only their customers, but the customers of all the other carmakers that failed to supply enough EVs to their loyal base. Chinese manufacturers may also have a better time, because China is already seeing an explosion in EV demand, backed by the government, so they will have a much better feel for the EV demand by then. Meanwhile, most European and Japanese carmakers will be left wondering why no one is coming to check out their latest "breakthrough in diesel technology" at trade shows anymore.
- thesumofall 9y ago
  > Tesla has the rest of the industry scared, so they're all rushing to announce electric models so they don't get left behind. And that for me is the real risk. Too much herd mentality, too little thinking. There is likely just one chance in our lifetime to get such a big transition right. It’s still an open discussion if electric cars really do provide the needed environmental breakthrough (even if they are fueled with green energy). I believe there should have been, e.g., more investment in alternatives such as hydrogen before committing the world to electric cars
gnicholas 9y ago
How much of this can be explained by regulations by CA and other states that require (or strongly incentivize) manufacturers to have electric models? I recall reading that Fiat loses $10k in every electric Fiat they sell, but that they do so to appease CA regulators.
- DrScump 9y ago
  Some SoCal dealers have offered Fiat 500e electrics on lease for $99/month inclusive (dealer/mfr keeps the incentives).
- gnicholas 9y ago
  Curious why this comment would be downvoted — if you have a response, or evidence in support/against what I mentioned, feel free to share. We don't downvote whenever we disagree; this is used to indicate that someone is not productively adding to the conversation.
nkkollaw 9y ago
Personally, I would love an electric car but they all seem to be too expensive (I'm in Europe). I bought a 2005 Opel Corsa that I use to drive ~3000km/mo. and it runs great. Paid 3,500 for it.
- codeulike 9y ago
  They are expensive because of the batteries, but battery price per kWh is dropping in a moores-law kind of way. Give it a few more years and there wont be any compelling reason to buy a dinosaur juice car. I suppose the cheap second hand car market might take a bit longer.
  - oblio 9y ago
    Based on an estimate from another Bloomberg article (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-05/latest-bull-case-for-electric-cars-the-cheapest-batteries-ever https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-05/latest-bu...), the price will halve by 2025. That's 7 years, not quite Moore territory, and we're still talking about mid range or more expensive cars. I'd imagine a $3500 second hand electric car to be 2030+ territory, not quite "a few more years" :)
    - karolist 9y ago
      Currently I could import a crashed Leaf from US auction to my homecountry in Europe and have it fixed and registered for a total of about 8000€, many people do just that. I imagine this will fall to about 6000€ for the first year Leaf imports in the coming couple of year or two.
  - nkkollaw 9y ago
    Sure, I'm not saying there's no reason for them not to be expensive. Just that they are, and I bet that's one of the main reasons why they're not mainstream, yet.
    - codeulike 9y ago
      Yep, and I'm saying that's going to change quicker than people think.
imglorp 9y ago
I'm pretty sure Bloomberg has a pro-fossil slant: watch yourself.
- osrec 9y ago
  What evidence do you have of that?
ciconia 9y ago
About a month ago I bought a used electric car as complement to our gasoline-powered family car. We live deep in the French countryside and virtually all our day-to-day rides are within 25km of home, and we drive about 1500km/month, not including long drives. By my calculations we're saving about 150€/month on fuel, while the car itself costs 230€ including insurance and charging, so we basically get a second car for 80€/month, and lower the maintenance costs and depreciation on the gas guzzler. Other benefits are near-zero maintenance (no oil change, less brake wear), zero registration cost, a quiet and fun ride, and zero pollution! For our situation an electric makes perfect sense! I'm actually looking forward to trading our first car for an electric, once it becomes economically viable.
- melling 9y ago
  Plus the electricity in France is enviably green: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_France#/media/File:Electricity_in_France.svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_France#/media...
  - ciconia 9y ago
    In addition some electricity providers will sell you "green electricity", meaning they'll commit to buying the amount you consume from renewable sources.
    - thesumofall 9y ago
      Or even better: commit to build renewable capacity to cover their customers to avoid that the “green” energy is simply taken away from the power mix of everyone else
  - kakwa_ 9y ago
    enviably, I'm not so sure... Most of the plants are quite old, and will cost a ton to renovate (~50B euros for the "Grand Carenage") or close. They also represent a growing risk as they get older. There is also the well known issue of waste management. Right now, it's actually more expensive per kWh produced. Also as it's backed by a well established nuclear industry, there is an important nuclear lobby which slows down renewable energy sources development. This industry is slowly dying (Areva had to be bailed-out basically a few years ago, and abroad, the bankruptcy of Westinghouse comes to mind), not the best horse to bet on. Is it better than coal plants? probably, but it's far from a silver bullet. To go back to electric car (and electric transport in general). One thing I rarely see discussed is the necessary increase in electricity production that a full switch to EV would require. How much bigger the output of electricity will have to be? 30%, 50%? Right now, given the really small proportion of EV, it's just a blip, but on a massive scale?
intopieces 9y ago
The real point here: “Although today’s drivers aren’t too excited about battery cars, tougher regulations in places like China and the power-thirsty needs of driverless features could help speed the transition along” It’s all about China. They have proven far more willing to impose their will on the market than any other country. China could very well ban all fossil fuel vehicles in one act and make king of whatever companies can supply them with electric cars. Too much of the article is spent hand wringing over the US Market. The US Market is mature, stable, boring, and midsized. The real action is China and India.
- ianai 9y ago
  It’s appropriate to compare a sudden change in a stable, mature market to a much less developed market that might not make a change at all. China has built entire cities without people moving to them. Just because a government demonstrates a strong imposement of will does not ensure wide adoption. Anything that dramatically changes a mature, replacement-driven market will materialize quicker and more profitably in the immediate.
netsuso 9y ago
Developing a new car model is not done in a few months, they take years. So it's understandable that car companies start to plan the future now. They also don't know if the demand will follow an S-curve and when. Disruptive changes are difficult to predict (probably predictions 11-12 years ago said Nokia would still dominate mobile phone market in 2017 :D) The demand will grow as battery prices go down, and range of electric cars increases. When an electric car has the same price and range than a petrol car (and probably before, as maintenance costs for an electric car are lower), there will be no rational reason to buy a combustion car. It's only a matter of time
ProfessorLayton 9y ago
I've been itching to buy an electric car, but my current hybrid is still fine and gets ~45mpg. Additionally, the heavy incentives and constant model improvements have caused resale values to continuously plummet [1], so there's no rush for me to buy. I can get a lot more electric car for a lot less money just by waiting a bit. [1] A cursory craigslist search lists Nissan Leafs for $5.5k @26k miles, and 2014 BMW i3s ~$13k @45k miles. Electric cars seem to hold their values very poorly.
- jonas21 9y ago
  You, as the first owner, get to keep the incentive, so why does it matter if it reduces the resale value?
  - ProfessorLayton 9y ago
    Well, reduced resale values increase the total cost of ownership, so it matters to anyone looking to spend less by going electric. A Nissan leaf fairs particularly poorly, especially compared to its ICE counterpart, the Versa [1]. The resale values are plummeting more than the incentives given. It also matters to anyone looking at buying a used electric car (Me), since the rapid depreciation makes me hesitant to jump in, as patience can get me more features for the same price (range etc), or save me a lot of money. [1] https://www.edmunds.com/nissan/leaf/2017/st-401695947/cost-to-own/ https://www.edmunds.com/nissan/leaf/2017/st-401695947/cost-t... vs https://www.edmunds.com/nissan/versa/2012/st-101396336/cost-to-own/ https://www.edmunds.com/nissan/versa/2012/st-101396336/cost-...
phil248 9y ago
Two things this article leaves out, both relating to China. First, China has mandated that its domestic automakers sell 12% of their vehicles as all-electric or hybrid by 2020. There's your jumpstart for demand, as artificial as it may be. Policies in parts of Europe will help as well. Second, China has several dozen domestic automakers, which must account for a fairly large share of these 127 battery-electric models mentioned in the article. Though the article also says 75 models have been announced that will sell in the US, and as far as I know none of the purely domestic Chinese automakers are in the US market today.
- r00fus 9y ago
  China smells the disruption here. The US and Japanese automakers are delusionally living in the 1900s and when it comes down to it they will be playing catchup.
- seanmcdirmid 9y ago
  There was a huge scandal in the last year with more than a few Chinese car companies taking advantage of EV subsidies with bogus projects, so they basically had to do a reset on their plans with the quota instead. https://apnews.com/466f3f8a95594e6287af9a806c2ebf29 https://apnews.com/466f3f8a95594e6287af9a806c2ebf29 https://www.theicct.org/blogs/staff/subsidy-fraud-reforms-china-ev-market https://www.theicct.org/blogs/staff/subsidy-fraud-reforms-ch... BYD has done well enough, I've ridden in an E5 taxi more than a few times. This and the Model S were the only electric passenger cars I saw in Beijing circa late 2016.
gutnor 9y ago
Earlier this week I was at a mall with a Tesla shop and about 5 supercharger in the parking lot. Something that I never really considered was that if electric car are set to replace ice car in the next decade(s), basically half the parking lot would need to have electric recharging capability i.e. several thousand slots. Street parking will need the same as will office and residential parking lots. What happens currently is a multiplication of private charging network, which is good, except that you need to pay a monthly fee for access, then a fee per connection and finally a fee per minute or kWh. It costs 10 GBP extra fee if you haven't a monthly registration. So if you need to charge your Tesla (let's assume 60 kWh) on a network you are not registered that's going to cost you: 31.80 GBP ! OK it is still less expensive than petrol, but that's not longer an order of magnitude under. I'm a bit afraid that in parallel to the legislation terminating the sales of ICE cars, there isn't any kind of legislation for the charging networks being put in place. Those private network will have to fight to install point on the public road, meaning the competition will be to win the local authorities, not on the consumer side. Failure to do something will lead to a situation quite similar to broadband in the US, with car driver required to pay several monthly fees to various network in order to make sure they can top up their car. It is a bit offtopic, but until that day it never occurred to me that the golden age of electric car ownership is today! With lots of free goodies thrown your way, but all of that will dry up by the time the common folk get their EV and the future will look much like the present in term of cost of driving hidden in a few extra monthly fees tacked to your account. At least it's a win for the environment.
- codeulike 9y ago
  Something that I never really considered was that if electric car are set to replace ice car in the next decade(s), basically half the parking lot would need to have electric recharging capability i.e. several thousand slots. Not really. You plug your electric car in at home overnight, you start every day on 100%. You only need to re-charge at the mall or somewhere if you are driving beyond your car's range. That happens sometimes but not enough to need half a car park of chargers. Also, range will improve a lot in the next few years as battery prices/weights drop. Cities where people don't have off-street parking at night (e.g. London) are a bit of an issue though. I suspect that can be solved though.
CalChris 9y ago
The EV market is increasing. First half of 2016 was 64,736 and first half of 2017 was 90,302 [1]. That's about 1% of the market. That there are Many Models tells you car companies think there are More Buyers rather than Few Buyers. I drive a 2013 Leaf so I know about range anxiety. My next car will be an S. My only complaint about the Leaf is that if I put $6000 worth of new batter I don't get 2018 technology. It doesn't get better. I get the exact same battery. [1] https://www.fleetcarma.com/electric-vehicle-sales-united-states-2017-half-year-update/ https://www.fleetcarma.com/electric-vehicle-sales-united-sta...
- tonyedgecombe 9y ago
  I wonder if we will see third party battery replacement services offering better performance, it seems there could be a commercial opportunity there.
  - CalChris 9y ago
    I think the answer for the Leaf is no. Nissan doesn't have an incentive to allow this. It is, I'll grant you, more difficult than replacing a 12V. There are heat issues and apparently charger compatibility issues. However, Nissan is in the business of selling cars just as Apple is in the business of selling computers. Repairing and improving old cars+computers is an expense and competes with sales of new cars+computers. In principle, it could happen. In practice, it won't. I'll probably get the batter replaced and keep the car. But I wouldn't buy/recommend a Leaf at this point as there are better alternatives available. A similar issue is right to repair.
Urbanxassassin 9y ago
I think to an American the switch seems hard, but to say a British person or even Scandinavian person the switch seems rather easy. Caring about being energy efficient is backed into their culture. Far less use of dryers, laws around usage of heating systems, country wide recycling and reduce waste initiative, majority smaller fuel efficient cars, the list goes on and they still have their problems. Countries like these making the switch to more electric cars would help drive a lot of the global market.
sathackr 9y ago
The cars don't quite seem 'there' yet. Tesla is the leader here, but I've heard many horror stories about owners' cars needing minor repairs being unusable for months due to parts availibity [1]. They seem also to have the best charging network as the rest of the industry was split between CHAdeMO and CCS. Nissan got the jump in America with the Leafs and CHAdeMO, but they don't have the range to be the only vehicle for most people. I learned about the Bolt EV and went to the dealer, money in hand, to trade in my SUV for one, until I saw it up close and drove it. It's just not quite there yet. The car is $37,000 and doesn't have power seats. I'm not spoiled in that I can't use a manual seat, but for long distance driving, position is important and the seat only had the typical manual seat adjustments. No tilt, no height adjustments. The amount of space in the rear is quite small, and there is no frunk. Charging and cost of charging was another problem. There are not quite enough CCS chargers in my area yet. And public chargers are bit pricey. The ones I found were $0.30+ per kwh. That price exceeds the cost of fueling a newer gasoline car that cost half as much. 3.5mi per KWh works out to about $0.086/mile. A car that gets 40mpg at $2.50/gal costs $0.063 per mile in fuel. The Model 3 may change some of this, and of course, home charging is cheaper. But the numbers just didn't quite add up for me. I'm looking at a Volt now. The plug in range can handle about 60% of my driving, and I have an efficient gas engine that is cheaper to run on long trips than the equivalent electric cost. There is plenty of trunk space and I don't have to wait an hour for it to charge for every 3 hours of driving. Not to mention that the Bolt EV is just ugly. [1] https://www.google.com/search?q=tesla+cant+drive+body+parts&oq=tesla+cant+drive+body+parts https://www.google.com/search?q=tesla+cant+drive+body+parts&...
hedora 9y ago
For me, the big barriers are cost and body style. (We just replaced a pickup truck with a luxury ICE pickup). I get 14 MPG on a 10 mile, 60 minute bay area commute (it does better driving up a mountain, FWIW). Clearly, if Ford’s electric F-150 existed for ~$60k and could make occasional long distance trips (like Teslas) I would have bought one instead. The only Tesla big enough to start to make sense for us is the model X, and those cost twice what we paid.
yalogin 9y ago
Electric cars is not the differentiator. The attraction is self driving, and Tesla knows this and so they market that. That is really how they garnered the clout and leading the market.
JacobDisouza 9y ago
People are leaving fuel technology for safe environment. Thanks for taking major step https://www.travelntoursindia.co.uk/ https://www.travelntoursindia.co.uk/
askari01 9y ago
Third world countries are dying to buy them, gas prices are high and unstable
- Profragile 9y ago
  Erm, no thanks. We're not retards.
austincheney 9y ago
I used to drive from Fort Worth to San Antonio once a month, 300 miles. I can do that on a single full tank of gas. I cannot do that on a single charge and recharging takes forever. The technology simply isn’t comparable.
spo81rty 9y ago
A friend of mine just got a Tesla Model X. He also owns exotic cars and races cares. He is a true car guy and gear head. If people like him are starting to switch to electric so will everyone else.
- plaidfuji 9y ago
  Obviously, because the vast majority of people are gear heads who own and race exotic cars.
plaidfuji 9y ago
ICE will be around for a long time in the US market. If I had to put a number on it, probably 30 years. This article is about demand, but even with robust demand there's massive infrastructural inertia behind ICE. Tens of thousands of trained mechanics. Oil and gas pipelines and tankers. A national network of gas stations with better coverage than any cell network. About half of car sales are used vehicles - how long until there's a large market of used EVs? Or even reliable statistics on their depreciation? People don't demand a certain type of propulsion technology, they demand reliable and cheap transportation. Sure, rich technophiles and environmentalists will be willing to pay a premium for a Tesla or a Leaf, but my guess is that market is close to saturated. Once Teslas are sustainably priced and their luster has worn a bit, they'll probably be most comparable to Cadillacs. Eye-catching styling and powerful, but lacking in the attention to detail that goes into German luxury cars.
symlinkk 9y ago
Would it be possible to have a manual transmission electric car? I’ve been thinking about getting a new car with a stick because I think it would be fun (and I need a new car), but if electric cars are right around the corner maybe I should wait for those?

97 points by osrec 9y ago

I thought this article would annoy me but its actually quite interesting. Basic premise is: Tesla has the rest of the industry scared, so they're all rushing to announce electric models so they don't get left behind. But if we assume the switchover to electric is coming in the next decade or two, how do big automakers decide how fast to transfer? Too fast is a risk due to capital expenditure on battery factories etc. Too slow is a risk due to being left behind. Perhaps this explains why traditional auto manufacturers seem to be constantly announcing exciting electric models that are still 3 to 5 years away - they can appear to be staying in the game without doing too much.

11thEarlOfMar 9y ago
Historically, there have been a variety of reasons why electric cars did not take substantial market share. You likely know what they are: Range anxiety, lack of charging infrastructure, poor performance, funky styling, 'general dorkiness', .... The current independents have focused on these issues and in many cases, clearly eliminated them. Moreover, the market itself has evolved with the US in particular finally starting to wake up to environmental issues (T notwithstanding), and China making strident environmental policy out of pure desperation. Add to the situation that a popular figurehead with a superhero alter-ego is leading the way with awe-inspiring (crash inducing) feats of science and technology, and I think we'll all be surprised at how fast electric vehicles become mainstream.
- codeulike 9y ago
  Agreed. I drive a Leaf and I think the switchover is going to come faster than people think. Nonetheless its an interesting article despite its slightly sniffy attitude to electrics because it highlights the scary predicament that the big automakers find themselves in.
  - jseliger 9y ago
    I drive a Leaf and I think the switchover is going to come faster than people think Yes. That's the other thing: the best argument for an electric car is driving one—particularly a Tesla. The minute most of the population has access to one (from a friend, family, whatever), they're going to want one.
  - rconti 9y ago
    Yeah. I've got a couple of good old fashioned regular performance cars here in the SF bay area. I'd love to have the excuse (read: carpool lane access, long commute, whatever) to buy an electric but there's just no "need" in my life for a new vehicle. That said, the penetration rate of electric vehicles as a proportion of new vehicles here is staggering. The Model S easily outsells any competitor's luxury car in the same class, you'd have to combine all A6 / 5 series / E Class sales to even hope to show the same numbers. And I can see why -- if you want to plunk down all this cash for a new car, why not get something truly new, not something outdated? My uncle is very frugal and has spent years looking at buying a new car and then up and ordered a (very base) Model S with the reasoning, if I'm spending all this money, I want to spend the money on future tech, not old tech. Even sitting in my 2016 car this morning, in the cold, I was thinking how silly it is that I have to wait for the coolant in the car to warm up before the heater starts blowing hot, and how funny all of the ICE cars look with steam coming out of the exhaust on a cold morning. It already feels out of date.
    - codeulike 9y ago
      You might enjoy this tongue-in-cheek 'Test Drive of a Petrol Car' written by a Swedish Tesla owner back in 2015 http://teslaclubsweden.se/test-drive-of-a-petrol-car/ http://teslaclubsweden.se/test-drive-of-a-petrol-car/
      - BatFastard 9y ago
        That is fabulous!
    - mikestew 9y ago
- nicoburns 9y ago
  I thought it was interesting that the article focussed on trends in the US market, which seems the least EV-friendly (from what I hear, fuel prices are half what they are in the EU).
- keldaris 9y ago
  To offer a slightly anecdotal counterpoint, if you discard ideological reasons and generous subsidies available in a few markets, I have no idea why anyone would buy an electric car right now. The range and the charging times are still an issue, especially if you don't live in California. The performance of most electric cars is abysmal (straight line speed may be all right, but cornering with the extra weight is just inferior) compared to traditional performance cars and while styling is subjective, the only electric car I've seen that wasn't outright ugly was the BMW i8, and that's a hybrid. That's not to mention the fact that they still carry a severe price premium in most markets. I realize my opinion will be highly controversial in the HN bubble, but I find it to be very common in real life, particularly outside the U.S. Like any future prediction, I'm probably way off, but to me it looks like on the list of vastly overhyped car trends pure electric cars are second only to self-driving cars. I'm sure they'll find specific markets (taxis, urban deliveries, etc.), but I don't see myself switching to an electric car for at least a decade, probably more.
  - reaperducer 9y ago
    In the cities I've lived in over the last 15 years, probably 90% of the taxis have been hybrid. I've seen FedEx, and even Coca-Cola running electric delivery trucks in urban areas. I think a wholesale shift from gas/diesel to electric is a long way off, but certainly it seems that electric/hybrid is the end of compressed natural gas vehicles.
    - Animats 9y ago
      Shenzhen just converted their entire bus fleet, 30,000 buses, to all electric.
      - reaperducer 9y ago
        Seattle, Vancouver, and other cities with abundant hydroelectric power have had electric bus fleets since at least the 1960's. Probably earlier. The only difference now is that instead of running wires overhead, you have to install charging stations.
  - 9y ago
- reaperducer 9y ago
  Building on your "lack of charging infrastructure," I think it's worth noting that there has been a huge shift from owning to renting in the last decade or so. It's easy to add an electric charger to a house you own, but if you rent the house or apartment, it's not going to happen. If you live in a newer apartment building, you might get lucky and they'll have chargers in the parking garage. But when I lived in such a building in Chicago, the chargers were ALWAYS full. It was a large building, and there were probably 40 or 50 of them across a five-story garage.
  - toomuchtodo 9y ago
    Both California and Illinois mandate by law rentals allowing you to install a charger (at your cost). Other states have similar legislation pending.
    - chc 9y ago
      That doesn't seem like a very good deal, though. You have to pay a sizable chunk of cash to improve somebody else's property and insure it for a million dollars. That is a much worse proposition than installing a charger in your house. I'm not sure how useful it is to your average renter who is just looking to buy a car.
      - toomuchtodo 9y ago
        It’s a happy medium until we can improve on the situation.
      - plorkyeran 9y ago
        Installing a home charging station costs around $2000 these days. If you're buying a $30-60k car and move infrequently it won't be that huge of a portion of the total cost of ownership of the car.
        Dylan16807 9y ago
        And a dryer outlet, which is plenty for home charging, is just a fraction of that much.
- jsz0 9y ago
  I think gasoline engines will stick around much longer than most people expect. They are a known commodity and many people have invested time and money into learning how to operate and maintain them. For example it's been brutally cold where I live lately and I know my gasoline engine works just fine in these conditions. If it fails to crank I know how to jump start it. I know to let it warm up a bit before turning high RPMs. I don't know anything about how electric cars would fare in these cold conditions. They may work just fine too but I have no experience to back that up. I'll learn at some point but a lot of people never will.
  - funnelsgun 9y ago
    I agree, I think we have at least another one, perhaps two decades with gasoline engines. The sad news is that displacement will continue to get smaller, even in sports cars. The transition from the Porsche 981 to 718 is a great example of how to ruin the perfect sports car.
  - codeulike 9y ago
    FYI, in cold weather this is what you need to do with an electric car: 1. Turn it on 2. Drive off Optionally, step 0: Use the app on your phone to tell the car to warm up, defrost the windscreen etc while you are in the house having breakfast. Range does suffer in cold temperatures; similarly ICE engines are less efficient in cold temperatures.
- deleted 9y ago
  [deleted]
- tschwimmer 9y ago
  I think cost is a big one too. Nearly all electric cars in the US could be considered 'Luxury' by price tag. The Leaf is an exception, but it also scores high on the factors you've listed so its lukewarm reception is understandable.
  - codeulike 9y ago
    See also: Chevvy Bolt, Tesla Model 3
maxerickson 9y ago
Haven't GM and Nissan both shipped more "mass market" electric cars than Tesla?
- codeulike 9y ago
  Nissan had, at some point, sold more Leafs than Tesla ahad sold Model S's, because Tesla didn't really start selling cars in large numbers till 2013 so Nissan had a bit of a head start. I don't think GM have sold that many pure electrics although the Bolt is out-producing the Model 3 right at this moment. But if you factor in Tesla's plans for the next 24 months or so, which they seem capable of pulling off, then no-one else is going to be able to catch up with them for five years or so.
  - maxerickson 9y ago
    When I say "mass market" I'm talking about cars that start less than $50,000 (and then it's still sarcastic). If Tesla are moving faster than everyone else backwards looking metrics should pick up on it soon enough.
    - codeulike 9y ago
      Well OK, yes, I kindof missed your "mass market" specifier. Tesla have only shipped a few thousand Model 3's so far. But they have 400,000 reservations that they intend to fulfil in the next 24 months or so. And that's a big challenge to everyone else.
nihonde 9y ago
I don’t think companies like Toyota are scared of Tesla. I think they’re skeptical of American consumers’ sudden shift in willingness to buy electric, after decades of mixed signals (to put it lightly). The Prius was a huge hit, and every automaker wants to hit that sweet spot next. It’s not about technology alone. You need to read the buyers, and America vacillates wildly between being eager to ditch ice, and stubbornly anti-green.
- netsuso 9y ago
  This is not (only) about being green. Electric cars are a pleasure to drive, they are less costly to maintain and repair (far less moving pieces), they are cheaper to run (at least in Europe, don't know in the US), and you can charge them at home (this is more of an advantage in the US than in Europe). Even the most anti-green buyers will prefer electric vehicles in ~10 years (if no sooner)
  - geerlingguy 9y ago
    After test driving a Tesla, and seeing how much better the simple driving experience will be in a decent electric car (one pedal driving, heating and cooling divorced from a running and wasteful/toxic engine, a car that gets software updates for more than 6 months...), I don’t think I can ever consider buying another ICE. If I still commuted, I’d find some way to justify a Bolt, Leaf, or Model 3.
    - funnelsgun 9y ago
      Lithium ion batteries are both toxic in production and disposal.
      - toomuchtodo 9y ago
        The first version of your post said that lithium ion batteries were toxic in production and disposal (both claims entirely false). You've now changed the entire comment to CO2 output for battery production (even though battery production will continue to decline in CO2 impact as grid energy sources continue to tilt towards renewables). > Therefore, the study has calculated that a fossil fuel vehicle can currently drive for more than eight years before it reaches the same environmental impact of a Tesla. For the Nissan Leaf, with its smaller capacity battery, this figure comes in at three years. Both Teslas and Leafs will be on the road beyond the eight and three years you quoted, putting their production at a net positive even before the above mentioned improvements take place.
mtgx 9y ago
Soon their biggest problem won't even be "making a good EV", because they all seem to have started working on EV platforms from scratch - which, let's not kid ourselves - they would've never done if not for Tesla. They would've just dragged their feet re-purposing old ICE cars into EVs, which has significant drawbacks in terms of overall battery efficiency as well as maximum range. So now that this is (almost) out of the way, their biggest problem will be making batteries fast enough. I predict that once there are enough models on the market and the prices are much more competitive compared to ICE cars, which should happen around 2022, there will be an explosion in demand. And it's going to take them off-guard because they won't have enough battery supply planned out for the short 1-2 year term. They'll have to "drop everything" and start building battery factories like crazy. I'm talking a total demand of close to 1 TWh year, by 2025, for EVs alone (which should be maybe around 15-20 million EVs a year, globally). The only one that will sale through smoothly will be Tesla at that point, which by 2023 will likely have a second gigafactory close to finished, and even Tesla may struggle a bit to keep up with the demand, because they'll have not only their customers, but the customers of all the other carmakers that failed to supply enough EVs to their loyal base. Chinese manufacturers may also have a better time, because China is already seeing an explosion in EV demand, backed by the government, so they will have a much better feel for the EV demand by then. Meanwhile, most European and Japanese carmakers will be left wondering why no one is coming to check out their latest "breakthrough in diesel technology" at trade shows anymore.
thesumofall 9y ago
> Tesla has the rest of the industry scared, so they're all rushing to announce electric models so they don't get left behind. And that for me is the real risk. Too much herd mentality, too little thinking. There is likely just one chance in our lifetime to get such a big transition right. It’s still an open discussion if electric cars really do provide the needed environmental breakthrough (even if they are fueled with green energy). I believe there should have been, e.g., more investment in alternatives such as hydrogen before committing the world to electric cars

gnicholas 9y ago

How much of this can be explained by regulations by CA and other states that require (or strongly incentivize) manufacturers to have electric models? I recall reading that Fiat loses $10k in every electric Fiat they sell, but that they do so to appease CA regulators.

DrScump 9y ago
Some SoCal dealers have offered Fiat 500e electrics on lease for $99/month inclusive (dealer/mfr keeps the incentives).
gnicholas 9y ago
Curious why this comment would be downvoted — if you have a response, or evidence in support/against what I mentioned, feel free to share. We don't downvote whenever we disagree; this is used to indicate that someone is not productively adding to the conversation.

nkkollaw 9y ago

Personally, I would love an electric car but they all seem to be too expensive (I'm in Europe). I bought a 2005 Opel Corsa that I use to drive ~3000km/mo. and it runs great. Paid 3,500 for it.

codeulike 9y ago
They are expensive because of the batteries, but battery price per kWh is dropping in a moores-law kind of way. Give it a few more years and there wont be any compelling reason to buy a dinosaur juice car. I suppose the cheap second hand car market might take a bit longer.
- oblio 9y ago
  Based on an estimate from another Bloomberg article (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-05/latest-bull-case-for-electric-cars-the-cheapest-batteries-ever https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-05/latest-bu...), the price will halve by 2025. That's 7 years, not quite Moore territory, and we're still talking about mid range or more expensive cars. I'd imagine a $3500 second hand electric car to be 2030+ territory, not quite "a few more years" :)
  - karolist 9y ago
    Currently I could import a crashed Leaf from US auction to my homecountry in Europe and have it fixed and registered for a total of about 8000€, many people do just that. I imagine this will fall to about 6000€ for the first year Leaf imports in the coming couple of year or two.
- nkkollaw 9y ago
  Sure, I'm not saying there's no reason for them not to be expensive. Just that they are, and I bet that's one of the main reasons why they're not mainstream, yet.
  - codeulike 9y ago
    Yep, and I'm saying that's going to change quicker than people think.

imglorp 9y ago

I'm pretty sure Bloomberg has a pro-fossil slant: watch yourself.

osrec 9y ago
What evidence do you have of that?

ciconia 9y ago

About a month ago I bought a used electric car as complement to our gasoline-powered family car. We live deep in the French countryside and virtually all our day-to-day rides are within 25km of home, and we drive about 1500km/month, not including long drives. By my calculations we're saving about 150€/month on fuel, while the car itself costs 230€ including insurance and charging, so we basically get a second car for 80€/month, and lower the maintenance costs and depreciation on the gas guzzler. Other benefits are near-zero maintenance (no oil change, less brake wear), zero registration cost, a quiet and fun ride, and zero pollution! For our situation an electric makes perfect sense! I'm actually looking forward to trading our first car for an electric, once it becomes economically viable.

melling 9y ago
Plus the electricity in France is enviably green: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_France#/media/File:Electricity_in_France.svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_France#/media...
- ciconia 9y ago
  In addition some electricity providers will sell you "green electricity", meaning they'll commit to buying the amount you consume from renewable sources.
  - thesumofall 9y ago
    Or even better: commit to build renewable capacity to cover their customers to avoid that the “green” energy is simply taken away from the power mix of everyone else
- kakwa_ 9y ago
  enviably, I'm not so sure... Most of the plants are quite old, and will cost a ton to renovate (~50B euros for the "Grand Carenage") or close. They also represent a growing risk as they get older. There is also the well known issue of waste management. Right now, it's actually more expensive per kWh produced. Also as it's backed by a well established nuclear industry, there is an important nuclear lobby which slows down renewable energy sources development. This industry is slowly dying (Areva had to be bailed-out basically a few years ago, and abroad, the bankruptcy of Westinghouse comes to mind), not the best horse to bet on. Is it better than coal plants? probably, but it's far from a silver bullet. To go back to electric car (and electric transport in general). One thing I rarely see discussed is the necessary increase in electricity production that a full switch to EV would require. How much bigger the output of electricity will have to be? 30%, 50%? Right now, given the really small proportion of EV, it's just a blip, but on a massive scale?

intopieces 9y ago

The real point here: “Although today’s drivers aren’t too excited about battery cars, tougher regulations in places like China and the power-thirsty needs of driverless features could help speed the transition along” It’s all about China. They have proven far more willing to impose their will on the market than any other country. China could very well ban all fossil fuel vehicles in one act and make king of whatever companies can supply them with electric cars. Too much of the article is spent hand wringing over the US Market. The US Market is mature, stable, boring, and midsized. The real action is China and India.

ianai 9y ago
It’s appropriate to compare a sudden change in a stable, mature market to a much less developed market that might not make a change at all. China has built entire cities without people moving to them. Just because a government demonstrates a strong imposement of will does not ensure wide adoption. Anything that dramatically changes a mature, replacement-driven market will materialize quicker and more profitably in the immediate.

netsuso 9y ago

Developing a new car model is not done in a few months, they take years. So it's understandable that car companies start to plan the future now. They also don't know if the demand will follow an S-curve and when. Disruptive changes are difficult to predict (probably predictions 11-12 years ago said Nokia would still dominate mobile phone market in 2017 :D) The demand will grow as battery prices go down, and range of electric cars increases. When an electric car has the same price and range than a petrol car (and probably before, as maintenance costs for an electric car are lower), there will be no rational reason to buy a combustion car. It's only a matter of time

ProfessorLayton 9y ago

I've been itching to buy an electric car, but my current hybrid is still fine and gets ~45mpg. Additionally, the heavy incentives and constant model improvements have caused resale values to continuously plummet [1], so there's no rush for me to buy. I can get a lot more electric car for a lot less money just by waiting a bit. [1] A cursory craigslist search lists Nissan Leafs for $5.5k @26k miles, and 2014 BMW i3s ~$13k @45k miles. Electric cars seem to hold their values very poorly.

jonas21 9y ago
You, as the first owner, get to keep the incentive, so why does it matter if it reduces the resale value?
- ProfessorLayton 9y ago
  Well, reduced resale values increase the total cost of ownership, so it matters to anyone looking to spend less by going electric. A Nissan leaf fairs particularly poorly, especially compared to its ICE counterpart, the Versa [1]. The resale values are plummeting more than the incentives given. It also matters to anyone looking at buying a used electric car (Me), since the rapid depreciation makes me hesitant to jump in, as patience can get me more features for the same price (range etc), or save me a lot of money. [1] https://www.edmunds.com/nissan/leaf/2017/st-401695947/cost-to-own/ https://www.edmunds.com/nissan/leaf/2017/st-401695947/cost-t... vs https://www.edmunds.com/nissan/versa/2012/st-101396336/cost-to-own/ https://www.edmunds.com/nissan/versa/2012/st-101396336/cost-...

phil248 9y ago

Two things this article leaves out, both relating to China. First, China has mandated that its domestic automakers sell 12% of their vehicles as all-electric or hybrid by 2020. There's your jumpstart for demand, as artificial as it may be. Policies in parts of Europe will help as well. Second, China has several dozen domestic automakers, which must account for a fairly large share of these 127 battery-electric models mentioned in the article. Though the article also says 75 models have been announced that will sell in the US, and as far as I know none of the purely domestic Chinese automakers are in the US market today.

r00fus 9y ago
China smells the disruption here. The US and Japanese automakers are delusionally living in the 1900s and when it comes down to it they will be playing catchup.
seanmcdirmid 9y ago
There was a huge scandal in the last year with more than a few Chinese car companies taking advantage of EV subsidies with bogus projects, so they basically had to do a reset on their plans with the quota instead. https://apnews.com/466f3f8a95594e6287af9a806c2ebf29 https://apnews.com/466f3f8a95594e6287af9a806c2ebf29 https://www.theicct.org/blogs/staff/subsidy-fraud-reforms-china-ev-market https://www.theicct.org/blogs/staff/subsidy-fraud-reforms-ch... BYD has done well enough, I've ridden in an E5 taxi more than a few times. This and the Model S were the only electric passenger cars I saw in Beijing circa late 2016.

gutnor 9y ago

Earlier this week I was at a mall with a Tesla shop and about 5 supercharger in the parking lot. Something that I never really considered was that if electric car are set to replace ice car in the next decade(s), basically half the parking lot would need to have electric recharging capability i.e. several thousand slots. Street parking will need the same as will office and residential parking lots. What happens currently is a multiplication of private charging network, which is good, except that you need to pay a monthly fee for access, then a fee per connection and finally a fee per minute or kWh. It costs 10 GBP extra fee if you haven't a monthly registration. So if you need to charge your Tesla (let's assume 60 kWh) on a network you are not registered that's going to cost you: 31.80 GBP ! OK it is still less expensive than petrol, but that's not longer an order of magnitude under. I'm a bit afraid that in parallel to the legislation terminating the sales of ICE cars, there isn't any kind of legislation for the charging networks being put in place. Those private network will have to fight to install point on the public road, meaning the competition will be to win the local authorities, not on the consumer side. Failure to do something will lead to a situation quite similar to broadband in the US, with car driver required to pay several monthly fees to various network in order to make sure they can top up their car. It is a bit offtopic, but until that day it never occurred to me that the golden age of electric car ownership is today! With lots of free goodies thrown your way, but all of that will dry up by the time the common folk get their EV and the future will look much like the present in term of cost of driving hidden in a few extra monthly fees tacked to your account. At least it's a win for the environment.

codeulike 9y ago
Something that I never really considered was that if electric car are set to replace ice car in the next decade(s), basically half the parking lot would need to have electric recharging capability i.e. several thousand slots. Not really. You plug your electric car in at home overnight, you start every day on 100%. You only need to re-charge at the mall or somewhere if you are driving beyond your car's range. That happens sometimes but not enough to need half a car park of chargers. Also, range will improve a lot in the next few years as battery prices/weights drop. Cities where people don't have off-street parking at night (e.g. London) are a bit of an issue though. I suspect that can be solved though.

CalChris 9y ago

The EV market is increasing. First half of 2016 was 64,736 and first half of 2017 was 90,302 [1]. That's about 1% of the market. That there are Many Models tells you car companies think there are More Buyers rather than Few Buyers. I drive a 2013 Leaf so I know about range anxiety. My next car will be an S. My only complaint about the Leaf is that if I put $6000 worth of new batter I don't get 2018 technology. It doesn't get better. I get the exact same battery. [1] https://www.fleetcarma.com/electric-vehicle-sales-united-states-2017-half-year-update/ https://www.fleetcarma.com/electric-vehicle-sales-united-sta...

tonyedgecombe 9y ago
I wonder if we will see third party battery replacement services offering better performance, it seems there could be a commercial opportunity there.
- CalChris 9y ago
  I think the answer for the Leaf is no. Nissan doesn't have an incentive to allow this. It is, I'll grant you, more difficult than replacing a 12V. There are heat issues and apparently charger compatibility issues. However, Nissan is in the business of selling cars just as Apple is in the business of selling computers. Repairing and improving old cars+computers is an expense and competes with sales of new cars+computers. In principle, it could happen. In practice, it won't. I'll probably get the batter replaced and keep the car. But I wouldn't buy/recommend a Leaf at this point as there are better alternatives available. A similar issue is right to repair.

Urbanxassassin 9y ago

I think to an American the switch seems hard, but to say a British person or even Scandinavian person the switch seems rather easy. Caring about being energy efficient is backed into their culture. Far less use of dryers, laws around usage of heating systems, country wide recycling and reduce waste initiative, majority smaller fuel efficient cars, the list goes on and they still have their problems. Countries like these making the switch to more electric cars would help drive a lot of the global market.

sathackr 9y ago

The cars don't quite seem 'there' yet. Tesla is the leader here, but I've heard many horror stories about owners' cars needing minor repairs being unusable for months due to parts availibity [1]. They seem also to have the best charging network as the rest of the industry was split between CHAdeMO and CCS. Nissan got the jump in America with the Leafs and CHAdeMO, but they don't have the range to be the only vehicle for most people. I learned about the Bolt EV and went to the dealer, money in hand, to trade in my SUV for one, until I saw it up close and drove it. It's just not quite there yet. The car is $37,000 and doesn't have power seats. I'm not spoiled in that I can't use a manual seat, but for long distance driving, position is important and the seat only had the typical manual seat adjustments. No tilt, no height adjustments. The amount of space in the rear is quite small, and there is no frunk. Charging and cost of charging was another problem. There are not quite enough CCS chargers in my area yet. And public chargers are bit pricey. The ones I found were $0.30+ per kwh. That price exceeds the cost of fueling a newer gasoline car that cost half as much. 3.5mi per KWh works out to about $0.086/mile. A car that gets 40mpg at $2.50/gal costs $0.063 per mile in fuel. The Model 3 may change some of this, and of course, home charging is cheaper. But the numbers just didn't quite add up for me. I'm looking at a Volt now. The plug in range can handle about 60% of my driving, and I have an efficient gas engine that is cheaper to run on long trips than the equivalent electric cost. There is plenty of trunk space and I don't have to wait an hour for it to charge for every 3 hours of driving. Not to mention that the Bolt EV is just ugly. [1] https://www.google.com/search?q=tesla+cant+drive+body+parts&oq=tesla+cant+drive+body+parts https://www.google.com/search?q=tesla+cant+drive+body+parts&...

hedora 9y ago

For me, the big barriers are cost and body style. (We just replaced a pickup truck with a luxury ICE pickup). I get 14 MPG on a 10 mile, 60 minute bay area commute (it does better driving up a mountain, FWIW). Clearly, if Ford’s electric F-150 existed for ~$60k and could make occasional long distance trips (like Teslas) I would have bought one instead. The only Tesla big enough to start to make sense for us is the model X, and those cost twice what we paid.

yalogin 9y ago

Electric cars is not the differentiator. The attraction is self driving, and Tesla knows this and so they market that. That is really how they garnered the clout and leading the market.

JacobDisouza 9y ago

People are leaving fuel technology for safe environment. Thanks for taking major step https://www.travelntoursindia.co.uk/ https://www.travelntoursindia.co.uk/

askari01 9y ago

Third world countries are dying to buy them, gas prices are high and unstable

Profragile 9y ago
Erm, no thanks. We're not retards.

austincheney 9y ago

I used to drive from Fort Worth to San Antonio once a month, 300 miles. I can do that on a single full tank of gas. I cannot do that on a single charge and recharging takes forever. The technology simply isn’t comparable.

spo81rty 9y ago

A friend of mine just got a Tesla Model X. He also owns exotic cars and races cares. He is a true car guy and gear head. If people like him are starting to switch to electric so will everyone else.

plaidfuji 9y ago
Obviously, because the vast majority of people are gear heads who own and race exotic cars.

plaidfuji 9y ago

ICE will be around for a long time in the US market. If I had to put a number on it, probably 30 years. This article is about demand, but even with robust demand there's massive infrastructural inertia behind ICE. Tens of thousands of trained mechanics. Oil and gas pipelines and tankers. A national network of gas stations with better coverage than any cell network. About half of car sales are used vehicles - how long until there's a large market of used EVs? Or even reliable statistics on their depreciation? People don't demand a certain type of propulsion technology, they demand reliable and cheap transportation. Sure, rich technophiles and environmentalists will be willing to pay a premium for a Tesla or a Leaf, but my guess is that market is close to saturated. Once Teslas are sustainably priced and their luster has worn a bit, they'll probably be most comparable to Cadillacs. Eye-catching styling and powerful, but lacking in the attention to detail that goes into German luxury cars.

symlinkk 9y ago

Would it be possible to have a manual transmission electric car? I’ve been thinking about getting a new car with a stick because I think it would be fun (and I need a new car), but if electric cars are right around the corner maybe I should wait for those?