usaar333

60 ms·

601.
by usaar333 7y ago
You are not allowed to employ a live out nanny unless you are in an essential occupation. (At least that was in the Bay area orders)
602.
by usaar333 7y ago
> Market is dropping 1-2 times faster than it did in 1928. That doesn't mean anything in itself. The market is much more efficient and communication is faster now. > Treasury Secretary predicting up to 20% unemployment, If no go
603.
by usaar333 7y ago
Police and heavy social pressure? Laws are a social construct. I doubt any judge (which are elected by the populace in California) is going to issue an injunction against this.
604.
by usaar333 7y ago
Young people are underestimating the risk to themselves. A 0.1% IFR still justifies spending $20k a person to avoid.
605.
by usaar333 7y ago
Exactly. I find it strange how otherwise highly creative and open-minded people don't see this. Based on other country's experiences you could get this reasonably under control with some rather draconian measures (that might cost
606.
by usaar333 7y ago
Perhaps. A 30% spy drop is already in predicting recession territory ( https://www.investopedia.com/a-history-of-bear-markets-45826... ). Even if I was 100% confident there would be a recession, it's still not clear the
607.
by usaar333 7y ago
It probably isn't the bottom. That doesn't mean expectation is optimized by waiting.
608.
by usaar333 7y ago
Vix is currently at 82%, rather than a more typical 15%. You should expect daily fluctuations of 5 to 6x what is ordinary for the next month. In fact today's drop is only about 1 standard deviation.
609.
by usaar333 7y ago
Your CFR numbers are likely too low across the board - about 2x off would be my guess. Here's Wuhan's data: https://i.ibb.co/983SC13/covplot.png
610.
by usaar333 7y ago
No one is getting out with a death rate that low. SK is nearing 1%. The numbers are only so low in Germany/Switzerland because its a) growing fast and b) they are testing aggressively. More precisely (and morbidly), the death rate i
611.
by usaar333 7y ago
HK and SK both have huge amounts of social distancing in effect (notably schools shut down). Singapore is about the only country I'd view as never having used lockdown. Taiwan did heavy school closures but is now coming back online.
612.
by usaar333 7y ago
Both Singapore and South Korea publicly report such data. Names are anonymized, but it isn't that hard to dox them. I personally think it is bad that HIPAA doesn't have epidemic exemptions. Over you have widespread testing, having
613.
by usaar333 7y ago
It's pretty easy to not touch your face when your hands are physically on the handlebars. As long as you are able to wash your hands immediately after getting off the bike, I think you are reasonably safe.
614.
by usaar333 7y ago
The UK's deaths and confirmed cases are significantly higher per capita, though Ireland does look better than the US. I guess this only leaves Eastern Europe (non-EU or outside Schengen) as not banned? Agreed though that I'm not s
615.
by usaar333 7y ago
I thought r0 numbers were pretty similar? The problem seems to be that containment is harder this time around.
616.
by usaar333 7y ago
Well, the related question though is not whether it was possible, but would happen (one metric being can you consistently estimate probabilities better). Would most of the people who predicted COVID-19 escaping also have been able to predic
617.
by usaar333 7y ago
Minimal. At best, we might be pushing the timeline out by a few months. Remote work isn't even necessarily carbon positive. In hot or cold weather, transit emissions savings may be more than offset by increased HVAC usage at home. [Tho
618.
by usaar333 7y ago
There's always uncertainty. In societies where you have fewer mothers of young children working, economic cost of closing schools is lower. All said I agree with GP that existing evidence suggests kids aren't a driver of the pande
619.
by usaar333 7y ago
People seem to ignore the relative success of South Korea. Wouldn't say life is normal, but it's not under lockdown and new cases have dramatically fallen. If I had cash lying around or was less skittish about leveraging myself, I
620.
by usaar333 7y ago
Isn't it both? Kids get it less often then adults, if they do they have a lower mortality rate (0% in fact for kids < 12), and don't seem to transmit it significantly to adults. (it's adults infecting them) source: https:
621.
by usaar333 7y ago
> Understood that schools are primary transmission vectors. Are they? There seems to be limited transmission from children (to other children or even adults), in part because they generally aren't getting symptomatic when exposed. v
622.
by usaar333 7y ago
Are people not aware at this point that the US will look like Italy/South Korea in a few weeks time? Hence, the hoarding of goods that has already begun..
623.
by usaar333 7y ago
Isn't R0 by definition for a population that isn't immunitized?
624.
by usaar333 7y ago
This is the reason why more than a 10% drop or so (assuming this doesn't chain-cause a recession) isn't justified. That doesn't mean stock prices aren't permanently lower.
625.
by usaar333 7y ago
Disagree; you are best off if the economy is growing and doing well. Stocks being cheap is only secondary.
626.
by usaar333 7y ago
Most people who believe they can profit day trading are delusional to begin with. If you are just doing it to gamble (for fun), a sexy app that lets you gamble easier on the fly better can well be worth it.
627.
by usaar333 7y ago
> Also, the childcare argument applies to just the first few years of the school - most of school-aged kids are old enough to stay home unsupervised if it's needed, It's a problem for basically kids ages 0-11 (depending on wher
628.
by usaar333 7y ago
School closures can be enormously disruptive if not handled correctly. As OP notes, who is going to watch the kids if you close schools? We have large numbers of essential services (medical, utility, food, etc.) that must keep running. - pe
629.
by usaar333 7y ago
Great overall summary of what happened though somewhat misses what hit the market ultimately hard- and doesn't necessarily prove that if you were rational about the risks, you should have sold short [1]. The market tanked fast (a sign
630.
by usaar333 7y ago
Yes, and they are supposed to self-quarantine on return for 14 days. No such rule is present with S. Korea or Italy. A random traveler from S. Korea/Italy is far "riskier" at this point. (Bonus: It's actually really hard

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