Great overall summary of what happened though somewhat misses what hit the market ultimately hard- and doesn't necessarily prove that if you were rational about

Great overall summary of what happened though somewhat misses what hit the market ultimately hard- and doesn't necessarily prove that if you were rational about the risks, you should have sold short [1]. The market tanked fast (a sign of efficiency in fact) when it became clear that containment within China had completely failed. Cases were dwindling (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/), due to China's strong protection measures, but all of a sudden there was an upswing due to international spread. It's interesting to read Ray Dalio's analysis on this whole thing: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/our-early-thinking-coronavirus-pandemics-ray-dalio/ https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/our-early-thinking-coronaviru... Finally, note that personal protection is different from stock market protection. It's more likely than not the SP500 will fall another 7% to 2750, but that doesn't mean shorting is a profitable strategy. [1] Maybe buy protective puts (perhaps volatility was far too low), but that's another story.