3 ms·
Well, the related question though is not whether it was possible, but would happen (one metric being can you consistently estimate probabilities better). Would
by usaar333 7y ago
Well, the related question though is not whether it was possible, but would happen (one metric being can you consistently estimate probabilities better).
Would most of the people who predicted COVID-19 escaping also have been able to predict SARS would have minimal effect outside of Asia?
(Don't forget that China had pretty aggressive lockdowns going on during SARS -- schools closed, gatherings limited, etc. -- though not to the level Wuhan got to).
- danieltillett 7y agoYes. I initially thought it was another SARS until I saw the R0 numbers. As soon as I saw that I knew that only the most aggressive containment policies would prevent this getting out of control. At this point the only issue is how much we can delay the peak and minimise the time we are above the capacity of the medical system.
- usaar333 7y agoI thought r0 numbers were pretty similar? The problem seems to be that containment is harder this time around.
- danieltillett 7y agoNo SARS was around 1.2 while COVID-19 is between 2.5 and 4.