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> Market is dropping 1-2 times faster than it did in 1928. That doesn't mean anything in itself. The market is much more efficient and communication is faster

> Market is dropping 1-2 times faster than it did in 1928. That doesn't mean anything in itself. The market is much more efficient and communication is faster now. > Treasury Secretary predicting up to 20% unemployment, If no government actions were taken. > The entire economy is about to shut down for two months - the world over. The "economy" isn't shutting down, only certain sectors (travel being the most notable). Obviously this has ripple effects on everything. Fun fact: The Chinese stock market only fell about 10% during the lockdown. You should expect a U-shape recovery, just with some permanent loss (lack of cash flow, expensive containment measures that must be maintained, etc.)

twomoretime 7y ago
>That doesn't mean anything in itself. The market is much more efficient and communication is faster now >If no government actions were taken Points taken, but as for the rest, I think you're underestimating the scale and ripple effects of shutting down an economy built around consumption. And your optimism also seems to assume that the market was healthy before all of this kicked off. That's where our perspectives differ. Airline industry, auto industry, tourism, consumer goods and especially electronics, what proportion of the economy do those sectors alone represent? >Fun fact: The Chinese stock market only fell about 10% during the lockdown. Considering that China has only tightened it's red curtain and the propaganda machine is at full steam, I'm not so sure we can trust any positive news out of China. Especially considering the regulated semi-private nature of the Chinese Economy. Face is everything to an authoritarian government - without the appearance of strength and/or competence, opressed peoples revolt. This is why authoritarian states tend to have work camps.
xbmcuser 7y ago
Looking at how China locked down it's cities and how most western politicians reacted including your president. You should not assume how the effect in China and the rest of the world will be same. This is how China controlled the spread https://youtu.be/YfsdJGj3-jM https://youtu.be/YfsdJGj3-jM

twomoretime 7y ago

>That doesn't mean anything in itself. The market is much more efficient and communication is faster now >If no government actions were taken Points taken, but as for the rest, I think you're underestimating the scale and ripple effects of shutting down an economy built around consumption. And your optimism also seems to assume that the market was healthy before all of this kicked off. That's where our perspectives differ. Airline industry, auto industry, tourism, consumer goods and especially electronics, what proportion of the economy do those sectors alone represent? >Fun fact: The Chinese stock market only fell about 10% during the lockdown. Considering that China has only tightened it's red curtain and the propaganda machine is at full steam, I'm not so sure we can trust any positive news out of China. Especially considering the regulated semi-private nature of the Chinese Economy. Face is everything to an authoritarian government - without the appearance of strength and/or competence, opressed peoples revolt. This is why authoritarian states tend to have work camps.

xbmcuser 7y ago

Looking at how China locked down it's cities and how most western politicians reacted including your president. You should not assume how the effect in China and the rest of the world will be same. This is how China controlled the spread https://youtu.be/YfsdJGj3-jM https://youtu.be/YfsdJGj3-jM