3 ms·

Exactly. I find it strange how otherwise highly creative and open-minded people don't see this. Based on other country's experiences you could get this reasona

Exactly. I find it strange how otherwise highly creative and open-minded people don't see this. Based on other country's experiences you could get this reasonably under control with some rather draconian measures (that might cost 1%+ of GDP to hold), but far less than total shut-down. examples: 1. Remove all testing bottlenecks. 2. Mandate face mask usage in all public settings. 3. Maintain massive queryable databases of cell phone location data for everyone. Goal is to easily find all potentially infected people if you identify a new case. 4. Keep mass gatherings (sports, conferences) closed due to difficulty contact tracing. (until number is really down) Note that because so many countries screwed up already, a short term lockdown is necessary. But the above is how you handle life after

ajross 7y ago
I don't think people are rejecting those ideas so much as ignoring them for the moment. It's too late for planning, we need a solution now, and mass para-quarantine is really the only tool that can be deployed. By all means let's investigate other options once the first wave is under control. But right now the first wave is growing out of control in basically every western democracy. #StayHome now, then work on a better plan. Make it work first before you make it work fast, basically.
- AznHisoka 7y ago
  Exactly, let’s not focus on premature optimization. Let’s ensure our hospitals don’t get overwhelmed these next few months. After that, the virus may go away on its own, or it might mutate into a weaker form. Or we might have treatments on the way.
  - ajross 7y ago
    Of those, only the third is likely. There is some hope still that the transmission rate will drop over the summer. But realistically, the post-quarantine phase will be defined by careful monitoring, a bunch of still-extant rules, and the occasional surprise outbreak. And this will go on until either we all get it or until we all get a vaccine.
maxerickson 7y ago
At some point the testing bottlenecks are real. You can't just remove them. South Korea has tested 0.5% of their population. Masks production can be increased. But you need hundreds of millions a day of production and won't get there in a short period of time.

ajross 7y ago

I don't think people are rejecting those ideas so much as ignoring them for the moment. It's too late for planning, we need a solution now, and mass para-quarantine is really the only tool that can be deployed. By all means let's investigate other options once the first wave is under control. But right now the first wave is growing out of control in basically every western democracy. #StayHome now, then work on a better plan. Make it work first before you make it work fast, basically.

AznHisoka 7y ago
Exactly, let’s not focus on premature optimization. Let’s ensure our hospitals don’t get overwhelmed these next few months. After that, the virus may go away on its own, or it might mutate into a weaker form. Or we might have treatments on the way.
- ajross 7y ago
  Of those, only the third is likely. There is some hope still that the transmission rate will drop over the summer. But realistically, the post-quarantine phase will be defined by careful monitoring, a bunch of still-extant rules, and the occasional surprise outbreak. And this will go on until either we all get it or until we all get a vaccine.

maxerickson 7y ago

At some point the testing bottlenecks are real. You can't just remove them. South Korea has tested 0.5% of their population. Masks production can be increased. But you need hundreds of millions a day of production and won't get there in a short period of time.