marvin

84 ms·

901.
by marvin 7y ago
Norway's number of positive tests was 5% at the current peak of the epidemic, for reference. Testing and isolation measures have been very effective here, so we have not had an overwhelming wave of infections (yet, knock on wood).
902.
by marvin 7y ago
And also, arguably, an economic one. A population where everyone over 50 (middle class or not) is afraid to do anything in public because a deadly pandemic is rampant, will not be conductive to an economic recovery. I've seen multiple
903.
by marvin 7y ago
If top US leadership was less demented, they could secretly "buy" up all of these $-35 May contracts and get paid 35 dollars a barrel to put it in the strategic reserve. But if such an agreement had been made in Congress and the U
904.
by marvin 7y ago
When this is done and everyone is vaccinated, Sweden will have at least 5x the number of deaths per capita of their neighbors in the west and southwest. And the people of Sweden will still have strong support for their authorities' dec
905.
by marvin 7y ago
You can make them yourself on a sewing machine, or even sewing by hand if you're desperate. My partner and I have made ~20 in some of our spare time in the last three weeks, for ourselves and our close family and friends. It's not
906.
by marvin 7y ago
I have family in their 70s with asthma in the south-east of France, near Italy. They were warned in the range of dates I mention here, at a time when their authorities encouraged them to go out and vote during a rampant, poorly acknowledged
907.
by marvin 7y ago
That’s spot on, and a great comment on times of crisis in general. In times of peace, leaders in most fields are not chosen for their ability to quickly make the best decision from uncertain data. There are a few exceptions, e.g. some milit
908.
by marvin 7y ago
I’m sorry to say it, but the author is wrong in his central point that this was not a failure of prediction. > For that matter, why didn’t you post this – on Facebook, on Twitter, on the comments here? You could have gone down in legend
909.
by marvin 7y ago
It's just splendid how a lot of people will criticize an estimate of deaths assuming no mitigating measures, and then say "see? no problem!" when the outcome is much better after stopping most economic activity for a month. W
910.
by marvin 7y ago
That's a much more reasonable interpretation of the available data, although there are still plenty of unknowns here, as sibling comments are pointing out. My interpretations the last week are converging on the same ballpark figures. I
911.
by marvin 7y ago
Smartphones also.
912.
by marvin 7y ago
Are you sure that the proportions (confirmed cases) / (actual cases) and (confirmed deaths) / (actual deaths) are the same in these countries? That's my biggest concern whenever I see dramatically (i.e. 2x or more) different
913.
by marvin 7y ago
All right, that seems much more reasonable to me. Thought you said the peak for the USA in general was imminent, and that's not at all obvious given that the social distancing policies going forward have yet to be decided. It might be
914.
by marvin 7y ago
It's not just about fighting the last war, though. It's also about having competent leadership that's able to adapt to a new reality, quickly discover which of their current heuristics are wrong, and then reason from first pr
915.
by marvin 7y ago
Hell, even some rich Western nations' currencies are fragile by this measure. I thought I was being smart by anticipating the coronavirus crash and selling half my global funds as an hedge. Timed it almost perfectly, a week and a half
916.
by marvin 7y ago
Won't the M2 measure of the money supply increase by some 40% as a consequence of the current stimulus and bailout packages? Hard to see that this won't cause some inflation.
917.
by marvin 7y ago
I'd say that the 2-week 20% stock market rise in the middle of a global pandemic is at least partially due to the expectation of asset inflation, and not just due to childlike optimism that the economic consequences of the pandemic wil
918.
by marvin 7y ago
20% unemployment and mostly letting people do what they want is not stopping the whole economy. It's certainly unprecedented and extreme, but it's not nearly as extreme as it could be.
919.
by marvin 7y ago
Norwegian numbers are similar. Mostly only healthcare providers with symptoms, or close contacts with confirmed cases, have been tested. 95% of the tests are negative.
920.
by marvin 7y ago
The argument of just letting it run its course also assumes that the medical facilities will not be needed for anything _else_ during the epidemic. That's obviously a ridiculous assumption.
921.
by marvin 7y ago
So the assumption here is that New York will be the last big outbreak in the US.
922.
by marvin 7y ago
Just wipe out the shareholders when the time for bailout comes. Owners can choose whether to take bankruptcy or a 90% haircut. (Or, say, X - 10%, where X is the number that state negotiators determines the company will get in a fire sale).
923.
by marvin 7y ago
I know several people in Norway who suspected they had it, got tested and returned negative. Based on this anecdotal information, I wouldn't put too much stock in those kinds of guesses without testing.
924.
by marvin 7y ago
They might have been very late with testing. I know this was barely on the radar in France even 2-3 weeks ago. MRSA has also been suggested as a component.
925.
by marvin 7y ago
Well, now I'm confused. One of you is wrong. Who is it?
926.
by marvin 7y ago
The government is passing relief package of 18,000 dollars for every citizen of the USA. That's more than enough money to tide things over if it's distributed well, in a way that incentivizes the right things. Unforunately, a very
927.
by marvin 7y ago
Judging from the state of the /r/financialindependence subreddit, they're not panicking at all yet. Maybe if there's another 30% drop.
928.
by marvin 7y ago
The CDC numbers I found are slightly more than half that for influenza. Without significant mitigating precautions, which was the context for this discussion, the USA would very likely have more than 100 million Covid-19 infections in the n
929.
by marvin 7y ago
Ditto in Norway. I'm shaking my head. Hope you guys over there will get through this okay.
930.
by marvin 7y ago
Well, the flu doesn't infect 100 million Americans in the same quarter. Just to mention one way in which Covid-19 is clearly worse than the flu.

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