marvin

83 ms·

931.
by marvin 7y ago
Let's for the sake of the argument ignore all the deaths that would happen with proper care , young and old alike. A low double-digit percentage of all identified cases require hospitalization to survive. A double-digit percentage of
932.
by marvin 7y ago
The "behind Italy" number must refer to the number of days after Italy the area reached 100 confirmed cases. Because those numbers obviously don't reflect an extrapolation of the exponential function even 10 days into the fut
933.
by marvin 7y ago
I'm sorry to say it, but that's just noise in the data. The death numbers in the United States will follow an exponential curve for a long time yet. Two weeks would be the absolute minimum before the shutdowns have an effect, but
934.
by marvin 7y ago
There is a risk that the response to this epidemic will tear some parts of American society apart. Some of the rhetoric in this thread is both representative and frightening in that regard. People of low means do not like getting told that
935.
by marvin 7y ago
Some of this economic damage is also the result of toppling imbalances that have been artificially propped up since before 2008. The virus is just a convenient excuse; a crisis would have hit at the first sign of trouble.
936.
by marvin 7y ago
Not to mention complications. Little is known yet, but there are indications that some surviving patients get permanent lung damage. Especially when intensive care is not available. Imagine having 30 million 40-year-olds who will be short o
937.
by marvin 7y ago
They're down from an all-time high of 200, so they're considered pretty much toast.
938.
by marvin 7y ago
This is not a dud, and it will prime whole generations in different countries to have respect for new diseases. If the United States just delays a little longer in its response, it will also be on the list of those countries. Don't kno
939.
by marvin 7y ago
Maybe it's the masks. Not by avoiding people catching it, but by reducing the spread to others. How tragically ironic it would be if the West has derided the most effective measure.
940.
by marvin 7y ago
How long did it take them to no longer expect herd immunity to build? 12 hours? That must be one of the most ridiculous acts of about-face in public policy in this generation.
941.
by marvin 7y ago
A couple of teleconferences with Italian doctors was what spooked Norwegian authorities to institute wartime measures while we still had only 200 confirmed cases. Glad the rest of the world seems to follow.
942.
by marvin 7y ago
Add Norway and Denmark to the list of countries that have halted large part of their economic activity. Honestly, I think the UK, Sweden et al. will be "voted out" here. Commerce can't continue between countries that follow t
943.
by marvin 7y ago
Let's see what happens. But Norwegian privately owned, so if the state does bail them out, I sure as hell hope they wipe out the common shareholders in the process. This culture of moral hazard, "privatize the profit, nationalize
944.
by marvin 7y ago
I don't follow your reasoning. South Korea has tested 35 times the number of positive cases. That's a lot. Presumably, it's not a random sample, but people who have been in touch with people who have had obvious symptoms. May
945.
by marvin 7y ago
While I agree with your point in general, Norwegian is done. They've got a heavy debt burden that's due soon. They will either go bankrupt and be restructured, or have to do a wipeout-level stock offering (unlikely in the current
946.
by marvin 7y ago
Those virus particles usually ride on a droplet of fluid, or another big particle. And you're not guaranteed to get sick if you ingest one virus.
947.
by marvin 7y ago
8000-ish cases. 70-ish deaths => ~0.9% fatality rate. Very thorough testing, so 0.9% is likely to be a reasonable estimate of the real fatality rate. Granted, 250k-ish of 50 million is a small sample, but you've got to assume that t
948.
by marvin 7y ago
Also, South Korea was around 1%. It's a number that has grown in credibility, unfortunately. I was hoping 0.1%.
949.
by marvin 7y ago
Rather an economic crisis than losing some of your loved ones a decade or two before their time. Get the authorities in place to be the safety net and take the measures required. Preventing a major GDP bump downwards is not worth millions o
950.
by marvin 7y ago
Hm, ok. That would make it in the region of 1%. Thought my numbers were out of date since I heard 0.6% somewhere else.
951.
by marvin 7y ago
Yes. But South Korea is still at 0.6%, and they've tested everyone and their dog, and provided top care to everyone.
952.
by marvin 7y ago
2-5 million dead seems perfectly plausible at this point. But remember we're not only talking about deaths, we're also talking about disruptions in society. IMHO, we're already well into reorganization to a war economy in man
953.
by marvin 7y ago
Is your implication here that SARS-CoV 2 was engineered and released in some sort of containment accident, and reteroactively blamed on a bat?
954.
by marvin 7y ago
This is very well phrased. I've been thinking similar thoughts, but it's hard to put them into words. Democracy and freedom of expression is fantastic, but this crisis reveals the failings of modern democracy in a spectacular fash
955.
by marvin 7y ago
They're going to overshoot. Based on confirmed cases / deaths, the UK doesn't have a correct picture of the current state of the epidemic. Accurately controlling and predicting a currently-exponential function like that is re
956.
by marvin 7y ago
You sure about the ECMO situation? That's the first time I've heard it's that bad. I understood that some 25% of ICU patients required ventilation, but that ECMO-patients had very poor outlook.
957.
by marvin 7y ago
Thus far. Most of the younger critical patients are not out of the woods yet. Also, many of those are left to die without treatment or assessment because there aren't enough ventilators for them.
958.
by marvin 7y ago
It's textbook Innovator's Dilemma. Can't cannibalize your existing product. Good idea, but let's do it some other time. The someone else does it instead. Whoops.
959.
by marvin 7y ago
A large number of companies have instituted a work-from-home policy in response, mine among them. Indefinite duration. Priority given to people who ride public transport, and especially people who are vulnerable from a health perspective. E
960.
by marvin 7y ago
Or in the realm of 3% when hospitals are saturated, because everyone gets sick at once. Which they will with exponential spread and a doubling rate of 4 days. I don't consider it acceptable to sacrifice 3% of the population in one fell

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