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Are you sure that the proportions (confirmed cases) / (actual cases) and (confirmed deaths) / (actual deaths) are the same in these countries? That's my biggest
by marvin 7y ago
Are you sure that the proportions (confirmed cases) / (actual cases) and (confirmed deaths) / (actual deaths) are the same in these countries? That's my biggest concern whenever I see dramatically (i.e. 2x or more) different death rates between countries.
Climate, general health, age distribution and other unknown factors certainly play into it, and could easily affect the rate of deaths by such a factor. But I smell a rat when I hear that Norway get 5% positives and NYC gets 25% when they test. Also, Italy makes it clear that even with a relatively consistent approach to hunting down the corpses, a big factor can get lost in the noise. Way above 2x.
So it's not trivial to compare this between countries, but it seems feasible to (by critical judgement) at least distinguish between a wildly incompetent and a good response.
- geomark 7y agoNot sure, of course, because testing is insufficient and the data is noisy. But it seems pretty clear that there are not a lot of dead bodies piling up. That would be all over social media even if it wasn't reported by local MSM. All of the reported deaths here had serious comorbidities. Are Thais really that much healthier on average? I wouldn't think so, but I'm not sure. Climate? If hot humid weather is the answer then we are safe because we are into hot season now and the weather is miserably hot and humid.