4 ms·
So the assumption here is that New York will be the last big outbreak in the US.
by marvin 7y ago
So the assumption here is that New York will be the last big outbreak in the US.
- btilly 7y agoThe actual assumption is that with current social distancing, any outbreak will die down on its own on approximable dynamics. There is good evidence that this is so. When we end social distancing, all bets are off. See http://www.healthdata.org/covid/faqs#length%20of%20the%20epidemic http://www.healthdata.org/covid/faqs#length%20of%20the%20epi... to see that they are painfully aware of this and are explicitly not trying to model that.
- marvin 7y agoAll right, that seems much more reasonable to me. Thought you said the peak for the USA in general was imminent, and that's not at all obvious given that the social distancing policies going forward have yet to be decided. It might be the case, but that assumes that effective measures to control the epidemic will keep being applied everywhere.