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I'd say that the 2-week 20% stock market rise in the middle of a global pandemic is at least partially due to the expectation of asset inflation, and not just d
by marvin 7y ago
I'd say that the 2-week 20% stock market rise in the middle of a global pandemic is at least partially due to the expectation of asset inflation, and not just due to childlike optimism that the economic consequences of the pandemic will be gone in 6 months.
This is just the first thought that makes sense though, would love to see some discussion of it.
- snarf21 7y agoI expect this bump to be a dead cat bounce. Some people rushed back in thinking the bottom was passed. I think there will be a new bottom in the next 6 months. However, the companies that do survive this pandemic will be even stronger and more valuable. The FTC will allow all kinds of M&A activity when it should be going to bankruptcy instead. If people think Tech and FAANG dominated before, you ain't seen nothing yet.
- frockington1 7y agoWhat would cause it to crash down again? Seems like virus spread is slowing and were not going to see the insane number of deaths being predicted during last crash. Travel industry might be hurt for a year but most people will likely just have an even bigger vacation this winter or next summer
- snarf21 7y agoNo one can know, but a lot of business won't recover. That means sustained unemployment for a long period of time. I think it is not fully understood how interconnected small businesses are. Those unemployed people are don't have money to support a bounce back of other business. We'll see how 2020 plays out.