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Rooftop solar is now cheaper than the grid in 42 American cities
- jacquesm 12y agoDoes this factor in the huge tariffs on panels made in Asia?: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/17/business/energy-environment/-us-imposes-steep-tariffs-on-chinese-solar-panels.html http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/17/business/energy-environmen... If it doesn't then the picture won't be as nice, but if it does then imagine what the situation could be like.
- floatrock 12y ago> but if it does then imagine what the situation could be like. Depends on how much of the "asian manufacturers are artificially deflating costs through government subsidies in order to buy up global market share, therefore we need tariffs to level the playing field for domestic manufacturers" argument you buy.
- jacquesm 12y agoActually, none. If they can provide solar panels for free for the rest of the world let them. That's a subsidy of other governments with as ultimate beneficiary local citizens.
- floatrock 12y ago> with as ultimate beneficiary local citizens. Yep. See the Thiel essay about how the point of business is to acquire a monopoly, at which point you kick back and let the cash flow come in because there's no competition: http://www.wsj.com/articles/peter-thiel-competition-is-for-losers-1410535536 http://www.wsj.com/articles/peter-thiel-competition-is-for-l... One theoretical use of tariffs is to sacrifice economic efficiency in the short run to maintain healthy competition in the long run. Don't get me wrong -- tariffs also serve many more interests (protectionism, regulatory capture, etc.), but the there still is a short-term/long-term difference I think you're discounting.
- api 12y ago... not counting storage, but it's progress.
- sighsighsigh 12y agoOnly in America can people afford solar power panels, but not the house to install them on.
- Shivetya 12y agoConsidering the number of home starts someone is affording them just fine. The age of nearly free money may be past and square feet might be more realistic going forward. The issue is, did people learn the lesson of not getting more mortgage than they can truly afford?
- sighsighsigh 12y ago> Considering the number of home starts someone is affording them just fine. I suppose China hot money dumps and Blackstone make great neighbors.
- intopieces 12y agoThere's two sides to that story: have we put regulations into place that prevent another sub-prime mortgage crisis? Or, are those regulations going to fizzle out in the next administration?
- djloche 12y agothe regulations are meaningless with the current state of regulatory capture. The Democratic and Republican parties in the united states appear to be united together in this corruption.
- MaysonL 12y agoI wonder even more if the banks have learned the lesson of not making loans to people who can't afford them? And whether the banking regulators will have the balls to stop the fraudster when they start demanding fraudulent appraisals from appraisers (as the banks and mortgage brokers did in the bubble years) and making liars loans. Also note that while housing start have recovered since the low post-crash, they are still at historically low levels in the US. See http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-0kkME86BGHc/VL-qoysEIbI/AAAAAAAAiBY/Gmviw7vudP0/s1600/StartsDec2014.PNG http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-0kkME86BGHc/VL-qoysEIbI/AAAAAAAAiB...
- deleted 12y ago[deleted]
- chrisBob 12y agoSolar is cheaper because of you suckers that don't have panels. There is a good government subsidy up front which people know about but the real secret is green energy credits. The green energy credits that the power companies are required to buy from home owners are worth at least as much as the electricity. If it wernt for these incentives then more efficient things like solar hot water would win out, but instead I put a PV array on my roof. When I got my panels the anticipated payback period was just 5 years in Massachusetts.
- deleted 12y ago[deleted]
- linuxguy2 12y agoIsn't that assuming that people live in a state with an SREC market? In Missouri where there isn't an open market for SRECs my utility company offered to buy my credits for a puny $5 per which is down from above $20 per a few years ago.
- jessaustin 12y agoIn my understanding, it isn't the state that matters, but rather the type of firm that sells you power. If e.g. you have Ameren UE or another investor-owned corporation, they are required to pay something like the going rate for your excess power. However, if you're with a co-op like Laclede Electric, they aren't required to pay more than a small fraction of the price, and even then under onerous conditions like only giving you credits that expire within a year. That isn't to say I'm a fan of Ameren. They get up to their own shenanigans, just not these particular shenanigans. I suspect the reason they don't care about this is that it's a perfectly PUC-acceptable reason to raise rates for everyone else. At a co-op with voting members, however, that maneuver isn't so easy.
- djrogers 12y agoSRECs are completely different and separate from net-metering or electricity purchasing requirements. In states with an SREC, you can sell renewable energy credits to clearing houses or companies who use those credits to cancel out non-green practices (like buying carbon offsets from Al Gore).
- JamesBarney 12y agoThe report estimates an inflation rate of 2.7% but the core inflation rate is currently much closer to 1.7%. They therefor underestimated the cost of the loan which will make solar panels more expensive.
- cma 12y agoBut core inflation excludes energy costs..
- dragontamer 12y agoEnergy costs are much lower today. Have you noticed the $2.00 gas signs?
- toomuchtodo 12y agoYou should not confuse a temporary turf war between tight oil drillers and the Sauds with long-term energy cost inflation. $2/gal isn't sustainable for anyone except consumers, and it won't last more than a few months.
- dragontamer 12y agoI'll give you that point. Although note that Russia, Iran, and ISIS are sanctioned right now, so keep that in mind for the short-term. Supply is BOTH artificially constrained and artificially inflated right now. But it isn't obvious to me that gas prices should go up or down. http://i.imgur.com/COkbBnD.jpg http://i.imgur.com/COkbBnD.jpg
- maxerickson 12y agoMy thinking is that the Saudi actions right now are more geopolitical than they are aimed at the oil market. I guess the oil market itself is pretty geopolitical, but I see a strong possibility for some anti-Russia, anti-Isis quid pro quo between the US and Saudi Arabia. (It's win-win for them if they put the pinch on new production, I'm just not sure they are hugely concerned with that)
- willholloway 12y agoI believe this is the development that will let us avoid run away catastrophic warming. In order to avoid catastrophic warming we have to reduce emissions by something like 80% by 2050. That seemed a pipe dream before cheap solar panels, now it feels inevitable to me. 70% of the power generated by a coal plant is wasted in the transmission line before it reaches your home, distributed generation has this huge efficiency benefit going for it. The Chinese solar industry has gotten the price down below .50 per watt this year, in a few years it won't make sense to add carbon-sourced marginal capacity. Almost all of new demand can be satisfied with solar pv. We will have to solve the energy storage problem, and I think we will. Superconducting magnetic energy storage gives me hope. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superconducting_magnetic_energy_storage https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superconducting_magnetic_energ...
- jfoutz 12y agoFlywheels are pretty neat too. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flywheel_energy_storage https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flywheel_energy_storage
- dragontamer 12y agoYou missed an easy pun with some outdated lingo. Lemme correct you. Ahem Flywheels are pretty fly yo.
- jacquesm 12y agoA lot of research has gone into flywheels over the last 40 years or so. The best that came out of that was ride-trough systems for hospitals and other large consumers (datacenters!) which catch the load until the generators can be spun up and power stabilization for wind parks (but these have now been supplanted by more solid state tech using superconductors). There are all kinds of reasons for that much too involved to go into here but for most practical (and cost efficient) applications fly-wheels are probably not going to happen unless there is a breakthrough in materials that would allow much higher RPM. Other interesting applications where the gyro bus (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gyrobus http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gyrobus ) and a similar system used to power regular cars (the flywheels were in the 100K+ RPM region and the size of a large dewar flask).
- daxfohl 12y agoImpressive given how cheap gas is now. Solar has gone down even faster?
- aidenn0 12y agopetroleum is not a significant fraction of energy on the power grid. http://www.epa.gov/cleanenergy/energy-and-you/ http://www.epa.gov/cleanenergy/energy-and-you/
- daxfohl 12y agoWow, never would have guessed.
- joshuaheard 12y agoIt looks like about 1/3 to me. I would say that is significant. I wonder if the study would have the same conclusion now that oil costs about 1/2 of what it did several months ago.
- pixl97 12y agoNatural Gas != Oil. These products might come out of the same well but do not track prices. All oil based products are less than 1%. Nat Gas is 27%, Coal 39%.
- ctdonath 12y agoPackaged right, this could give electric cars a big push. A Nissan Leaf sports a 26kW/h battery; a rough guess puts the cost of a home solar charging system dedicated to the car at about half the price of that car. For context: charging it from 110v is like running a moderate hairdryer for the charging period (up to 21 hours for a full charge, which is unlikely needed). Packaged right, this could get a big push for dedicated A/C operation. Home cooling being most needed when sunlight is strongest, solar could significantly reduce or outright replace the considerable power needed for cooling - and do it with a minimum, if any, battery buffer.
- lotharbot 12y agoOne of the most important attributes of solar power is that it produces peak power during peak usage times -- the middle of the day, when people are running the air conditioning, businesses are open, computers are on, and so on. With a grid designed to provide continuous power at off-peak levels and solar filling in for some of the shortfall at peak levels, that allows a reduced number of peak-only reactors.
- floatrock 12y agoAn earlier post linked to a California operator's report: http://www.caiso.com/documents/flexibleresourceshelprenewables_fastfacts.pdf http://www.caiso.com/documents/flexibleresourceshelprenewabl... ...that shows peak load is actually 6pm-9pm.
- lotharbot 12y agoFrom the report, just before the graph -- "The net load is calculated by taking the forecasted load and subtracting the forecasted electricity production from variable generation resources, wind and solar" In other words, after projected solar generation is accounted for, the peak remaining power need for the specific grid in question is at 6-9 pm. (Other parts of the paper describe the "belly of the duck" being caused by "supply from solar generation resources" -- reducing the need for the rest of the grid to supply daytime power.) The paper in question may also be describing a residential-only grid. Residential peak usage is from 6-9 pm, but when commercial/industrial power usage is accounted for, the peak is more like 2-6 pm. See the chart at around the 2/3 point of http://www.mpoweruk.com/electricity_demand.htm http://www.mpoweruk.com/electricity_demand.htm . Also note that residential demand may peak earlier on super hot / high sun days, as shown at http://blog.opower.com/2012/09/hot-and-heavy-energy-usage-how-the-demand-and-price-for-electricity-skyrocketed-on-a-100-day/ http://blog.opower.com/2012/09/hot-and-heavy-energy-usage-ho... , and tends to peak later in the winter due to electric heaters kicking on in the evenings (https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/295225/Seasonal_variations_in_electricity_demand.pdf https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachm... ). Of course, I'm glossing over a lot of complexity here. Each region is going to be different depending on a lot of factors. But in general, having a decent amount of solar power generation can help meet demand at the peak of commercial/industrial demand.
- tsemple 12y agoWill new solar panels last 25 years? Most of stuff on the outside on my house doesn't have a lifespan that long. You could end up paying off the loan after the panels have stopped working.
- 3am 12y agoMost are warranteed at a particular percentage of nameplate capacity (95%+) at delivery and then in a straight-line decay after a certain point out to a certain level (75-80%) at 25 years. http://us.sunpower.com/sites/sunpower/files/media-library/warranties/wr-sunpower-limited-product-and-power-warranty-pv-modules.pdf http://us.sunpower.com/sites/sunpower/files/media-library/wa... [edit: better link], for example. that is 95% through year 5, then .4% linearly through year 25, or 87% of nameplate at year 25. They are a premium vendor, but the warantee structure is fairly standard across legitimate vendors. edit: http://www.yinglisolar.com/assets/uploads/warranty/downloads/PANDA_standard_110928.pdf http://www.yinglisolar.com/assets/uploads/warranty/downloads... - 98% at install, 92% at 10 years, and 82% at 25 years. edit: http://www.trinasolar.com/downloads/us/products/EN_Trina_Warranty_Jan_2013.pdf http://www.trinasolar.com/downloads/us/products/EN_Trina_War... 2.5/3.5% in year 1, 0.7/0.68% through year 25 (80.7/80.18 % at end) for poly/mono- crystalline products, respectively ... and so on.
- cagenut 12y agoan upvote is not enough, thank you for a response with hard numbers and multiple linked sources.
- roel_v 12y agoMany have guarantees of 20 years. Whether there will be someone around to honor that guarantee is another matter, of course.
- pstrateman 12y agoSubsidized rooftop solar is now cheaper than artificially expensive electricity in 42 American cities. Electricity from natural gas costs $0.03-0.05/kWh to produce and deliver. Anything beyond that is mark up; either profit or regulatory. http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=%28natural+gas+price+to+usd%2FkWh%29+%2F+0.30 http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=%28natural+gas+price+to...
- jakswa 12y agoAny more references here? It looks like you just mean the price for natural gas futures is $0.03/kWh. I am hesitant to believe that includes production and transport. In addition, are you including the efficiency at which natural gas is converted to electricity?
- pstrateman 12y agoI'm dividing by 0.3 to account for the efficiency of natural gas turbines. (In reality they're higher at around 35-45%) If you assume a 100% efficient natural gas plant the cost is $0.00983/kWh (100% efficiency is of course nonsense though). At 30% efficiency the marginal cost is $0.0327/kWh, distribution usually costs around $0.01-0.02/kWh. This leads to a grand total margin cost of $0.0427-0.0527/kWh. DoE estimates from 2012 show $0.0189/kWh in fixed costs. So a combined grand total of $0.06-0.07/kWh.
- refurb 12y agoWhat about capital costs?
- pstrateman 12y ago"DoE estimates from 2012 show $0.0189/kWh in fixed costs." That includes capital costs.
- refurb 12y agoFixed costs =/= capital costs. Fixed costs are the reoccurring costs that arise regardless of production. You can build a plant with free money, but you still have fixed costs.
- thyrsus 12y agoI've got a mix of evergreen and deciduous 30+ meter trees on my lot that produce (eyeballed) about 25% roof shade in winter and about 50% roof shade in summer. For aesthetic reasons, the trees are non-negotiable: they stay (and neighbors' trees provide morning and evening shade; equally non-negotiable). It appears that kills the deal; the linked PDF says my region could expect about $60 worth of power a month without the trees, but with them I'm guessing it would be at best $40 a month, which isn't going to cover a 5% interest cost.
- frankosaurus 12y agoSolar panels would be fantastic at my townhouse in San Jose, where the sun shines 300 days a year. Unfortunately, my HOA bans rooftop solar panels.
- 3am 12y agoYou may have already done so, but you may want to see if that restriction is in conflict with CA law: http://solar-rights.com/files/THE_CALIFORNIA_SOLAR_RIGHTS_ACT2.pdf http://solar-rights.com/files/THE_CALIFORNIA_SOLAR_RIGHTS_AC...
- djrogers 12y agoThe roof of a condo is often considered common area, which is excluded from the linked law. OTOH, parent can (and should) work with the HOA to get those CC&Rs changed. In the uber-green region that is the valley, it should be pretty easy to get a group of like-minded owners together to approach the board, or even get a member or two elected.
- yumraj 12y agoAs another poster below said you should work with your HOA to change that. I was in the Board of our HOA (a townhome community), recently decided to step down, and we amended our CC&R to allow solar panels. We had to add a few caveats but no biggie.
- kelukelugames 12y agoSeattle is on the list! I'm pleasantly surprised.
- bluthru 12y agoSeattle actually gets a decent amount of insolation compared to Germany: http://www.greenrhinoenergy.com/solar/radiation/images/World%20Insolation%20Direct.jpg http://www.greenrhinoenergy.com/solar/radiation/images/World... As we know, Germany isn't shy about its solar investment.
- Spooky23 12y agoLike most things, making a capital investment results in a cheaper cost than consuming a service. The problem is, you need to invest $30k to save $50.
- phkahler 12y agoSunshine. They talk about a 5kW system, but do they use some theoretical cost or do they consider the amount of sunshine in each location. When I see Detroit at #25 I'm suspicious because we have a lot of grey days.
- sterlingross 12y agoIt is interesting that Hawaii isn't at all mentioned, considering that electricity is 30 to 45 cents per kWh and the electric company limits the number of grid-tied solar installations per neighborhood. No where in the US is solar more cost effective than here, and the electric company is restricting homes from installing solar. The alternative is to go fully off-grid with battery arrays, but that is more than most people can handle.
- deleted 12y ago[deleted]
- bpodgursky 12y agoIt's not as sinister as it sounds. You have to upgrade capacity to handle the power produced by neighborhood capacity or you burn out the lines.
- reustle 12y agoNot that they have to go fully off the grid all the time, just when they want to use solar.
- reustle 12y agoNot that they have to go fully off the grid all the time, just when they want to use solar.
- ChuckMcM 12y agoHaving had solar panels on my roof for nearly 15 years now I can tell you that the 25 year warranty is optimistic at best. Our panel maker, Sharp, cannot replace panels under warranty (180W) because they no longer make them and have no replacement stock. We discovered this when we tried to exercise the warranty on a panel that failed.
- djrogers 12y agoAs with any warrantied product there are likely provisions for that in the warranty - you should either get cash value compensation from them or an equivalent modern panel. Just because your first attempt resulted in a 'no' doesn't mean you are without recourse...
- jms 12y agoYou have to be careful to match the panels though - slightly different specs can cause problems for your setup. The same goes for batteries - mixing new and old will degrade your new batteries. (Lead acid batteries at least)
- reustle 12y agoSure, but in the long run it is far better to take the new panels and tweak your system.
- ChuckMcM 12y agoOh they were happy to replace my 180W panel with a 165W panel, but at the time such systems (like mine) are built as 'strings' of panels in series. So putting a 165W panel in took all of the other panels down to 165W (which in my case effectively removed one panel equivalent). The higher wattage panel was too large for the roof mount. We ended up replacing the panel with a Chinese equivalent (which was 180W and the right panel size) and basically threatened to sue Sharp for the panel cost. (which they ended up paying).
- cubano 12y agoInteresting stuff, but there are financial assumptions being made here that should be examined. 1. The 25-year ROI is tied to the projected price of electricity moving forward. It is simple market issue that if and when more and more people start using these systems, the utility-based kW price will (must) come down and therefore, the ROI will change, perhaps dramatically. 2. What about the opportunity costs of such a significant financial commitment? Have they been examined in any way?
- jksmith 12y agoThis is Nick Carr's "The Big Switch" in reverse as I predicted years ago. It used to be the case that centralized distribution was cheaper, than, as described in the book, every factory having its own water wheel power plant. The technology is getting good enough now though that each endpoint can be self-sustaining, and even provide services - just as the internet should be - every endpoint providing and consuming. This trend will be massively disruptive, and expect centralized services to do just about anything they have to, to protect their dinosaur business model.