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Chinese chipmaker shares surge 470%
- glimshe 2mo agoI have nothing to say about this company's long term potential, but I'm curious to know whether this will become an enormous "tik stok" like SK Hynix became in South Korea. I've watched a short documentary about the investment mania in SK and it's really scary.
- _trampeltier 2mo agoTesla is kind the same. Everybody bought it, because it went up so much, less because of the product. I guess every AI would do the same.
- rokkamokka 2mo agoI wonder what the effects of TSLA dropping to reasonable levels (a drop of about 90%) would look like.
- Schlagbohrer 2mo agoMorgan Stanley said that SpaceX's space activities are only worth $8 per share...
- rapsey 2mo agoMost people here seem to have a serious misunderstanding of what a stock price means. It reflects investor expectations. Not current revenue.
- fragmede 2mo agoMorgan Stanley's target price for SPCX in their report is $300, with $8 being the space component, and the $292 being everything else, like what actually gets put into space. The Morgan Stanley report doesn't say SPCX is worth $8/share. Just wanted to be clear and not have a conversation based on vague implications.
- samrus 2mo agoIf the chinese government feels its critical to china's success then it will be backed like alibaba and wechat and others were
- thenthenthen 2mo agoJackie Ma of Alibaba was basically exiled for some time because he got cocky (and too powerful/rich?).
- yogthos 2mo agoWhich is an objectively a good thing.
- overfeed 2mo agoWhile hyping upcoming products from his conglomerate, he talked shit about the government (regulatory authority, more specifically), and he got hit.
- seanmcdirmid 2mo agoTechnically he wasn’t exiled, but “invited” to a communist party relaxation center for discussions.
- Hasz 2mo agothe company, sure. The stock or people who own in, less clear.
- chii 2mo ago> the investment mania in SK and it's really scary. i mean, it shouldn't be scary, because their failure is their own, and i doubt there would be collateral damage outside of those high risk investors. It's scary for _them_, but it's an interesting case study for an outsider.
- thephyber 2mo agoThere's a lot of speculation in your comment. I lived through the crash of 1989, the Dot Com crash in 2000, the GFC of 2008, and whatever the crash and WSB speculation in 2020 were called. None of them had a tiny blast radius like you suggest.
- fwip 2mo agoIf 30% of adults in your country suddenly lose, say, half their wealth from a stock market crash, it's going to affect everyone in the country - not just the investors. To use an example, the Great Depression wasn't sunshine and roses even for the people who kept all their money under the mattress. Their job was just as likely to go out of business.
- addozhang 2mo agoSouth Korea has opened its financial doors to the outside world, and since SK Hynix is a publicly traded company, that's allowed capital to flow in and take control of the company.
- hn_submit 2mo agoThe DRAM market is a notorious pork cyclic business. SK Hynix and Micron have stood on the brink several times. No matter what happens the Chinese will carve out a niche since they're playing the long game. And DRAM will always be needed.
- levanlevi 2mo agois it retail or hype driven - that's the question
- feverzsj 2mo agoIt's driven by the supreme leader's grand plan, like everything else there.
- VulgarExigency 2mo agoSeems to be working out better than leaving it up to the market
- pingou 2mo agoWhy does the US stock market keep having record years while the population doesn't seem to benefit, whereas the opposite is happening in China? Isn't that a failure of US capitalism?
- Tade0 2mo agoIs the latter part actually true in this decade or just "face"?
- bawana 2mo agoThe population in china is falling off a cliff....low birth rates, collapsing property prices (the main vehicle for personal investment), slowing ecconomy.
- xboxnolifes 2mo agoChina's population has dropped a few million over the last 5 years, but over the last 20 years they have still gained 100 million people.
- smallmancontrov 2mo agoSo they should have kept pumping property prices until the bubble popped at 3x the size? 5x? 10x? If China's internal politics was like US internal politics, they would have done exactly that, and it would have been the wrong thing to do.
- jonkoops 2mo agoEU chip industry: best I can do is eat glue in the corner.
- b3orn 2mo agoEU chip industry: best I can do is power electronics.
- nimchimpsky 2mo agoEU Chip industry : ASML, 2nd to only nvidia, 0.5T mkt cap
- Foobar8568 2mo agoSTMicroelectronics cries in a corner.
- eckelhesten 2mo agoThey sell the shovels, we need someone actually digging for gold.
- Tade0 2mo agoShovels have always been the better out of the two investments. There were rumours about China grabbing hold of one of ASML's machines, but with no additional information on this it's safe to assume they're still hammering out 7nm chips using DUV at piss poor yields.
- wasfgwp 2mo agoExcept in China’s case where they eventually figured out how to make shovels themselves in plenty of other industries (and likely at some point in the future chip fabrication as well)
- amluto 2mo agoI see no reason to think that CXMT’s yields are poor. Or, for that matter, that Huawei’s yields are a problem.
- cluckindan 2mo agoLet’s see them ship some chip first
- feverzsj 2mo agoThe price is similar, as they all rely on same upstream suppliers. The quality is kinda meh.
- grumbelbart2 2mo agoThey don't have access to EUV machines from ASML though.
- feverzsj 2mo agoEUV is only required for highend ram like HBM3E, HBM4.
- adrian_b 2mo agoWhat they have is good enough for competitive DDR5 DIMMs. In China they already make integrated circuits with a finer pitch than at TSMC or Intel before the transition to EUV. This is achieved by multiple exposures, which increase the fabrication cost, but with the current prices they still have very healthy profits.
- kmjmbk 2mo agothey seem to be doing fine regardless.
- wasfgwp 2mo agoCurrently price has little relation to manufacturing cost, though
- blitzar 2mo ago> 8% to 9% of the worldwide DRAM market share in 2025 how much more do they need to ship to satisfy you?
- fooker 2mo agoPrediction - we are going to figure out SOTA AI performance without requiring 1TB of memory within a year or so. Of course CXMT, Micron, and family will still be profitable, but maybe not 'surge 470% from IPO' profitable.
- yieldcrv 2mo agothat would be perfect timing Hyperscalers are screwed, data center mania couldn’t even be completed during this massive spending spree, all while the people seemingly sitting on the sidelines are working on getting these things baked into the OS and chipsets in a way consumers wouldn’t notice
- Dibby053 2mo agoWhat do you base this prediction on? It seems very unlikely, unless by SOTA you mean the current SOTA.
- oblio 2mo ago> What do you base this prediction on? Their posterior. Or worse, their interest in going to the moon (HODL style, not Artemis style).
- ImprobableTruth 2mo agoThe fundamental issue is that for these systems bigger is essentially always better (if affordable). So if we can squash something like Kimi K3 down to run on a 'normal' system, that just incentivizes devs to increase the model size until once again we're at the limit of what can be run.
- raincole 2mo agoAnd by the time the models that require 1TB memory will be better. It's like people saying mobile chips are going to be better than PC chips... until they realize PC can be made of mobile chips too if that comes true.
- fooker 2mo ago
- shevy-java 2mo agoThe more interesting question is: why does the rest of the world not increase their production prowess? I am aware of most of the reasons, but I am getting tired of the "China is better than the rest of the world". It is more that China did a lot of things that the others either failed to do or no longer wanted to do. Case in point is Germany: from "our cars are best" to "hey, chinese cars are now better" (or, cheaper, for a comparative quality). This constant complaining is so strange. Would that energy not be better spent to try to become better?
- mosura 2mo agoIt is because in the west we suffer from self inflicted obstacles that make it impossible to get out of our own way. The Chinese gov must think they are playing on easy mode.
- mschuster91 2mo ago> Would that energy not be better spent to try to become better? The problem is, shareholders have bled Western companies dry in the chase for returns on investments. There is no money left in the companies to retool them to be competitive with China. Meanwhile, the CCP just pours dollars into their companies. Unfortunately, there is no punishment in Western societies if you run a company into the ground as long as you pay your debts on the way out.
- askvictor 2mo agoPrivate equity has mastered the art of running a company into the ground, hiding that fact, and handing the debt over to someone else. So there is no punishment even if your don't pay your debts.
- raizer88 2mo agoBecause the capitalist west doesn't have strategic view, beside maybe on the defense sector. Everything else must produce profits next quarter not in the next 3 years.
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- blitzar 2mo agoIf the golden stick of memory sitting on Trumps desk has its intended effect - and the US allow Apple to buy memory from CXMT then another 500% surge might happen.
- amluto 2mo agoThe reverse might be worse for the US in the long run. Right now, the US leads China in compute-heavy R&D because the US has access to more compute, and that compute has two components that China has limited ability to produce domestically: the GPUs themselves and the DRAM. A decent fraction of the balance of the plant is already produced in China. If the US refuses to buy Chinese tech, then we may find ourselves paying more for compute than Chinese labs (DRAM first, but Huawei really really wants to catch up with the combined forces of TSMC, Nvidia and AMD) and falling behind on access to compute at acceptable prices. If I were setting US policy, I would be trying to get the US-friendly companies to increase production and trying to encourage domestic production so that the US-friendly world can stay ahead. Getting held back by a DRAM cartel that wants to juice profits at the expense of output is not good for the US.
- overfeed 2mo ago> If I were setting US policy, I would be trying to get the US-friendly companies to increase production and trying to encourage domestic production so that the US-friendly world can stay ahead. That's what the CHIPS Act was supposed to do, but it got neutered for partisan political reasons. The CHIP Act was already about a decade too late. US policy is inconsistent across administrations, and the beneficial moves usually made very late in the game, around the time second- and third-order effects of the bad decisions become unbearable.
- polski-g 2mo agoTrump owns micron stock. No way he's letting Chinese chips in.
- cubefox 2mo ago> Once an affordable component used to build devices, memory prices have more than doubled in recent months - and are still rising. Is this accurate? It looks like they are no longer rising, at least for DDR5 memory: https://de.pcpartpicker.com/trends/price/memory/ https://de.pcpartpicker.com/trends/price/memory/ Most of the price increase did occur in Q4 2025 and most prices are fairly stable since then. Maybe this is different for LPDDR, GDDR, or HBM, but I would like to see evidence for that.
- Tepix 2mo agoLook at DDR5-6000, it clearly is rising again since June.
- cubefox 2mo agoStill looks like a weak trend compared to the explosive price hike at the end of 2026.
- fittingopposite 2mo agoDivine prophecy?
- hn_submit 2mo agoYou would think that the DRAM shortage would propel Europe to invest in DRAM fabs. But no, they think it's too risky because prices may fall in the next few years and building fabs costs a lot of money and is hard. They'd rather sell other people's stuff than make it themselves. Ergo, the Chinese will take this sector too without so much of a whimper from Europe. In a couple of years the Chinese will own 25% of the DRAM market and make bumper profits akin to Big Tech. Europe's response will be to levy import tariffs to at least siphon off some money from it.
- pojzon 2mo agoEU will regulate itself out of everything, sit, cry and complaign about devastated economy. Noone votes for these ppl and stupid decisions they make destroy everyones lifes.
- deleted 2mo ago[deleted]
- mortarion 2mo agoIt's not possible. High living costs, high energy costs (100x of China) and high regulatory costs all mean that if you were to build a modern fab, you'd need to sell your product for way more than the price offered by the competition in Asia and the USA, just to break even. The interstate competition you see in the USA, where states compete against each other for companies to invest, is plain illegal in the EU. Tax breaks? Illegal. Subsidized energy? Illegal. Subsidized land? Illegal. Permit exemptions? Illegal. EU countries are not allowed to compete against each other by offering targeted state aid as incentive. This is to prevent wealthier EU nations from outcompeting poorer EU nations when it comes investments. Basically the EU, in our infinite wisdom, are forever doomed to be disadvantaged.
- seanmcdirmid 2mo agoI wouldn’t take much stock in the SSE (Shanghai stock exchange) just yet. It’s still a very much insider traded market, and if you aren’t a whale or very good at following whales, you aren’t going to do very good.