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The Strongest El Niño Ever
- giardini 3mo ago[flagged]
- tired-turtle 3mo agoAnd, soon, brand new, never before seen waterfront property! Invest now so your children can enjoy sand where St. Augustine grass once flourished. \s
- zippyman55 3mo agoIt’s the down hill house racing contest this winter that you want to pay attention to. Be sure to take precautions.
- e_i_pi_2 3mo agoDo you know if this balances out to a lower death count than the heatwave would have, or just better for people in that area? Even thinking just about the US south I'd imagine heat is a bigger risk than hurricanes
- jameshart 3mo agoLet’s see…: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1877%E2%80%931878_El_Ni%C3%B1o_event https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1877%E2%80%931878_El_Ni%C3%B1o... > widespread drought and famine in multiple countries, causing the death of more than 50 million people. Disasters associated with it include the Great Famine of 1876–1878 in India, the Grande Seca in Brazil, and the Northern Chinese Famine of 1876–1879.
- chomp 3mo agoYou don't seem to understand how this works. El Niño is one half of a 2 part cycle. You don’t get permanent hurricane reduction.
- tjwebbnorfolk 3mo agoIf/when the temperature differential between equator and pole decreases because of a warming arctic, we actually do get a permanent reduction in hurricane propensity and destructiveness. Not everything gets worse if the planet heats up a little more.
- queenkjuul 3mo agoMiami will be safe from hurricanes in its new underwater locale
- giardini 3mo agoI understand perfectly how it works! I'm just happy not to worry about hurricanes this year! I'm an optimist. More bad news for you, I fear.
- henry2023 3mo agoLet me guess, you think solar panels are chinese spying machines.
- giardini 3mo agoWhy bother posting crap like this?
- NooneAtAll3 3mo agoI for one am impressed we get couple months of warning before it happens
- echelon 3mo agoIt's a massive oscillating system (millions of square miles), so we have plenty of lead time. It's easy to measure and watch evolve.
- micro2588 3mo agoIts a bit more complicated than that, you have a period during the spring called the spring persistence barrier that makes skillful prediction of a developing el nino difficult. What is impressive is that multi month model predictions before this spring barrier had a historic el nino developing which turned out to be correct (an out of sample prediction).
- aaronbrethorst 3mo agoThe buried lede: What does all this mean for global temperatures? Because global temperature lags ENSO by around three to five months, most of this event’s warming will land in 2027, which is now shaping up to be a genuinely alarming year and the warmest on record by a sizable margin I’m certainly no climate scientist, but if I lived in Europe, I would absolutely be looking into how to get a solar energy system set up and at least one window air-conditioning unit if not a heat pump before next summer
- throwaway_7274 3mo ago[flagged]
- sailingparrot 3mo ago> hello Wow, clearly Gemini
- inigyou 3mo agoAnd by a sizable margin they mean maybe 4 degrees Celsius. Remember that 1.5 degrees Celsius is a nearly end-of-the-world scenario and we're currently about 1.1 degrees. All that warming that we caused but didn't actually happen? Turns out the ocean saves it up.
- fredski42 3mo agoDoes anyone knows how much more the oceans can absorb heat?
- karakoram 3mo agoRelated: https://science.nasa.gov/earth/explore/el-nino/ https://science.nasa.gov/earth/explore/el-nino/
- 1over137 3mo ago[flagged]
- clemailacct1 3mo ago[flagged]
- KaiserPro 3mo agoare you arguing with a joke?
- DangitBobby 3mo agoYou have a point about it not being necessary to invoke his name here but any use of TDS just shows you are in a different reality.
- phtrivier 3mo agoCome on, Trump would never "tarrif" something called "El Nino". He would first deport it a couple times.
- bamboozled 3mo agoHe'd grab it's pussy first.
- pointer_pointer 3mo ago[dead]
- pointer_pointer 3mo ago[dead]
- zuzululu 3mo ago[flagged]
- inigyou 3mo agoall of it and because we've been doomed since the 70s
- zuzululu 3mo agobut if you keep declaring a time clock every decade only to reset it for the past 50 years, does it not weaken the point of it ? we should've had an apocalypse by now, we haven't and unlikely to so for quite some time. why are we so eager and unquestioning of the published narratives going to the length of censoring counter theories?
- inigyou 3mo agoYeah the clock turned out to be silly, but if you interpret it as risk level instead of time, it makes sense. Since the 70s we have been at a near-100% chance this would happen.
- zuzululu 3mo agoso the probability approaches 0% every 10 years and then goes back up to 99% the following year and repeats 5 times ? that makes little sense to me
- SubiculumCode 3mo agoDoes this mean California is more likely to get mega flooding?
- alephnerd 3mo agoWe haven't had any significant flooding in past El Niños. Of course, it will probably be different this round, but at least El Niños tend to align with Mediterranean weather instead of droughts and wildfires. We also have one of the more advanced waterwork system in the US to support Central Valley agriculture, so a lot of the worst aspects can be somewhat managed. It's bad that such dramatic climate change is happening, but we're definetly lucky to live in the West Coast because we won't face the brunt of some of the worst aspects of the El Niño comparatively and have the infrastructure to deal with it. Sadly, the brunt of climate change will be felt by the poorer half of the world.
- jeffbee 3mo agoThe costliest floods in state history were in the winter 1994-1995 which was a weak El Niño year.
- alephnerd 3mo agoTrue, but a lot of that was due to a lack of integrated water management (IWM) in California at the time, and led to significant reforms as well as infra expansion to prevent that from happening again. The Lima Prieta Quake and the 1990s floods led to a lot of future proofing in Californian infra. The last major thing left is transmission weathering, which PGE and Sac are fighting over. Also, most of our infra is state funded which gives us a lot of leeway. Like I said before, it's bad that we're in this position and it's only going to get worse, but we're in one of the better places that can survive these kinds of shifts.
- chewbacha 3mo agoYes, atmospheric rivers all winter. Next year a super bloom then the following year massive wild fires. rain -> fuel -> fire
- gonzalohm 3mo agoWhat's interesting to me is that almost all models underestimated the ocean temperature. We are entering uncharted waters and I fear that at some point we will get an extreme extreme weather event and the worse thing is that we won't see it coming.
- jonwinstanley 3mo agoWell, we can see it coming, but we are doing very little about
- inigyou 3mo agoWe've been seeing our own certain destruction from climate change coming since the 70s. The 1870s. We had two entire lifetimes to do something about it, we didn't. Except those guys throwing soup at the fossil fuel HQs. They did a little.
- deleted 3mo ago[deleted]
- windexh8er 3mo agoWe're building more data centers for a technology that's ramping global warming even faster. Water consumption, heat generation and tons and tons of CO2 emitting concrete to house these things. So we're doing something, but those things are counterproductive to our planet's general well being. Apparently billionaires don't need an inhabitable Earth to live on.
- inigyou 3mo agoDC water consumption is a red herring. That water is returned back to its source but warmer.
- windexh8er 3mo agoIf you think that every data center is now a closed loop system enjoy your propaganda. Colossus 1 and 2 still use open loop systems. And with the case of blow down water that's "returned" it's not usable due to the use of concentrated salts (1,200 to 6,000 mg/L). In your mind this is a closed loop system of clean water. It is not. And as DCs have less and less discharge there is more and more solid waste produced. Your assertion that "water consumption is a red herring" is utter bull shit. I'd suggest enlightening yourself [0][1][2][3]. [0] https://genesiswatertech.com/blog-post/advanced-blowdown-treatment-technologies-for-data-center-water-recovery/ https://genesiswatertech.com/blog-post/advanced-blowdown-tre... [1] https://fieldreport.caes.uga.edu/publications/TP121/how-data-centers-impact-surface-and-ground-waters/ https://fieldreport.caes.uga.edu/publications/TP121/how-data... [2] https://arxiv.org/pdf/2606.21760 https://arxiv.org/pdf/2606.21760 [3] https://www.yahoo.com/news/science/articles/epa-writing-permits-could-let-182418731.html https://www.yahoo.com/news/science/articles/epa-writing-perm...
- buybackoff 3mo agoI've seen dozens of videos and articles about this strongest ever event. And I still have no clue if the next year I should evacuate from Paris for the summer because heatwaves may be even crazier than this year, or prolonged heavy rains are more likely and can make the city more livable.
- azeirah 3mo agoGiven what I learned from "chaos" by James Gleick, the predicament we're in is that we likely cannot predict outcomes or the events themselves, rather what we know is that weather will become more unpredictable and more extreme. So the answer to your question is it could be either or both or neither. Whatever happens is going to be on average more extreme than what you're used to.
- measurablefunc 3mo agoWater vapor amplifies the greenhouse effect so I don't think rain is going to make it better.
- SiempreViernes 3mo agoI would bet on it becoming hotter for longer, with some really bad but short torrential rain in between. So get some sturdy shade structure and an heat pump.
- asdff 3mo agoIt might end up like a covid situation where even if you have good AC in your home, you don't want to be in the area because the medical system is on its knees overwhelmed from treating all the cases of heat related illnesses.
- croes 3mo agoAnother thing AI makes worse because of all the energy consumption. I hope we have something more to show than dozens of to-do apps when our children and grandchildren ask which important things made the massive use of AI necessary.
- simianwords 3mo agoEven if we don't do anything about emissions and climate change picks up, lives in 2126 will be unmistakably better than ours in all dimensions that matter.
- bamboozled 3mo agoI really believe this is corporate propaganda. "Don't worry, we have the solutions". You don't.
- simianwords 3mo ago[flagged]
- polotics 3mo agooh you looked up 2126 on the Google did you? can you explain this verification process a bit more maybe? is it based on world3? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World3 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World3
- simianwords 3mo agothese people (the model) predicted that Food per person peaks around 2015 hahaha. not only that, they predicted population would peak at 7 billion at around 2030. there's a sort of person who would look at these false predictions and willingly not update, but instead move the goal post. here's the reality: there's small subset of unfortunate people who still cling on to this model despite being demolished by reality. they are not the consensus fortunately - each field has some strange people believing some wild ideas. what's interesting is what the public chooses to side with.
- tjwebbnorfolk 3mo agoIf you give any regularly-occurring event that varies in intensity enough time, it is guaranteed to break the records of its previous intensities.
- henry2023 3mo agoYeah like earthquakes, the top registered earthquake happened 66 years ago. The fact that you see record breaking more often than log of time implies a drift in one direction.
- jmye 3mo ago[dead]
- simmerup 3mo agoAnd it varies in intensity because human activity is putting more energy into the system
- tjwebbnorfolk 3mo agoIt varies in intensity because it always has.
- henry2023 3mo ago[flagged]
- tjwebbnorfolk 3mo agoWhat am I denying, exactly? This thread and the article pertain to El Nino. Is someone denying that El Nino exists?
- simmerup 3mo agoIf it’s always varied in intensity, why are the ten hottest years on record all after 2015? Surely we’d see random hot years all over the map.
- mjsweet 3mo agoWow, this thing should be nicknamed "El Hombre"
- bamboozled 3mo agoThe weather in Japan has been completely wack I can tell you that. The rainy season is never ending in central and north Japan. It was actually declared over but it's back again. Never seen that before.
- thisisnotauser 3mo agoOther than "numbers go up" it's unclear to me what the consequences are, as I'm not extremely familiar with El Niño events. Hurricanes, maybe?
- dredmorbius 3mo agoUS NOAA has a (still generally useful) list of links to various impacts: <https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/elnino/impacts-of-el-nino https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/elnino/impacts-of-el-nino> Those include: hydrology (floods, drought), sea-surface temperatures (hotter or cooler, both of which impact local ecologies and fisheries), storms (weaker hurricane season in the Atlantic, due to high-altitude wind shear, stronger in other areas), and others: economic, fisheries, military, human health, marine life, and specific regional impacts.
- lawgimenez 3mo agoI live in the Southeast Asia, so this El Nino event is worrying. It also means drought and super typhoons.
- mempko 3mo agoI wrote to Alan Kay over 8 years ago about my fears of global warming and how tech seems to dismiss it as a concern on the whole. A little known fact about Alan Kay is 17 years ago he was part of a group of "systems people" who published for the NFS about various systems including the climate. He helped write "Transitions and Tipping Points in Complex Environmental Systems" (https://nsf-gov-resources.nsf.gov/2022-12/Transitions-and-tipping-points-in-complex-environmental-systems-508c.pdf https://nsf-gov-resources.nsf.gov/2022-12/Transitions-and-ti...). He wrote to me that "This, along with many other warnings from many other sources over many years, fell on deaf or disbelieving ears." He agreed with my concern saying "And, yes, you are right that things will likely be really bad if the climate is allowed to crash past the tipping point." But what he said following that shook me to my core. Kay said "If you think of a system as an upside-down coca cola bottle, it is easy to see that a little nudge can topple it, whereas considerably more energy is then required to put it back.". What this means is to get CO2 back down to 350 ppm (we are at 428 ppm), we would need to expend more energy than we did getting it to 450 ppm. That means, we would have to expend more energy than humans have produced IN ALL OF HUMAN HISTORY in the next 10-20 years (30,000-45,000 EJ range) just to put the system back to where it's safe. Ask yourself, where are we spending our energy right now as a species? On putting the system to a safe level or something else? Do we even have the capability to do it? As we continue to expand our industrial capacity, we also use non-renewable resources like oil and metals we can't recycle. As we exploit them, we degrade our industrial capacity for the future. For a deeper analysis read Limits to Growth and work related to it.
- shepherdjerred 3mo ago> Ask yourself, where are we spending our energy right now as a species? Hey Claude, enter plan mode
- sajithdilshan 3mo agoWe all know we’re way past the time where we need to cut the carbon emissions, like it was 30 years ago. Why aren’t the governments investing money on research on carbon capture technology? That’s the only way left to undo massive carbon emissions due to industrialisation
- sdeframond 3mo ago"Wait, do you mean I should pay to capture the carbon my neighbors emits? No way!" That's why. Edit: Also, as some other comment said, thermodynamics tell us that it would take an inordinate amount of energy to bring carbon back to safe levels. More than what we get from burning oil. It's about entropy and all that. So there's that.
- iamgopal 3mo agoWill doubling of forest helps ? ( not that it is possible )
- micro2588 3mo agoIts regionally complicated because increased tree cover can lower albedo (reflectivity of radiation) which offsets the co2 removal benefits. Forrests can tip from co2 sinks to co2 sources which is happening in different regions of the world currently.
- 1d22a 3mo agoSee my sibling comment to the parent. Doubling forests won't do near enough, because the carbon we've burnt comes from millions of years of forests compacted into coal (among other sources). We'd need to grow millions of years worth of forests, which we just physically don't have the surface area for.
- 1d22a 3mo agoCarbon capture is physically unable to be as effective as we need it to be. To an approximation, growing a tree is able to capture as much carbon as burning the wood from that tree. If most of our released carbon came from burning wood, we would just need to re-grow that amount of wood (unfortunately it's not even that simple, as the soil stores carbon long term in a way that just growing the tree doesn't capture, and is also released over time when old growth forests are cut down). Instead, the carbon we're burning comes from processes which efficiently concentrated the carbon from plants and microorganisms over millions of years to create coal, oil, and gas. Carbon capture technology would have to artificially replicate these millions-of-years-long processes, and do it on a scale of years to decades. The scale of carbon capture we need is entirely unfathomable, requiring processes that don't exist, because they have to work against entropy itself. Carbon capture at the point of burning fossil fuels to abate further emissions might be economical. Capturing already released carbon dioxide from the atmosphere (concentration of ~0.04%) is a fiction pushed by fossil fuel companies to muddy the debate and distract from the urgency of immediately stopping the burning of fossil fuels.
- tsoukase 3mo agoThere are three possible scenarios for the next decades: 1) return to preindustrial level of pollution, possibility less than 1/10000 2) make radical changes suggested by scientists, less than 1/100 3) continue with the current pace The pyramid of pollution, which is directly proportional to the pyramid of wealth, is almost impossible to shrink as the latter is also inevitable. Just brace for impact.
- doodlebugging 3mo agoI can hardly wait to see how this shakes out locally. We have had 3 La Ninas in a row that have left us with a rainfall deficit of 23.5" (597 mm) under the 20 year average annual total that I have measured here in NTexas. It's been dry overall for several years. Considering the situation going into the 2015-2016 El Nino we were also in a multiyear drought with a rainfall deficit accumulated from 2010-2014 of over 31" (787 mm). That is just under the 20 year average annual precipitation total for my place - 36.3" (922 mm). We were missing almost a full year's rainfall over that 5 year period. I use a NOAA manual rain gauge of the type that can handle up to 11" (279.4mm) of rain before needing to be dumped. I have recently added a digital tipping gauge unit beside the manual gauge so I can have a clear comparison and track rain rates. Anyway, if it works out like 2015 did then we went into the year with a deficit but it quickly began raining well above normal so that by mid-June we were already above the normal 20-year average rainfall total. Then it dried up with below normal rainfall from mid-June to late October. There was no rain at all between the first week of September and the last week of October. For the year though we were still 3" (76.2 mm) above the 20 year normal annual total when it started raining again. Between the last week of October and the end of the year it rained an additional 28" (711 mm) and then it stopped and we fell behind again until finally catching up to normal accumulation in the second week of March 2016. Currently our accumulation to date is almost 1" (25.4 mm) above the 20 year average annual total for this date. So, just as in 2015 we are a little above normal during summer. I expect that if it works out like 2015 then we can expect a lot more rain beginning in the fall, probably by October. If I look back over the previous 5 years from 2021-2015, we are again running a rainfall deficit of 26.2" (665.5 mm). That is about 72% of rainfall expected in a normal year using my 20 year average accumulation. Nearly 3/4 of a year's rainfall behind at this point over a 5 year period. Interesting. I suspect I will need to have some more rock hauled in to repair the driveway by the end of the year since it will all wash down the hill again.
- moscoe 3mo agoLooks like I’m definitely getting a season pass to the local ski resort this year. Should be epic!
- TacticalCoder 3mo agoIf things get really unsustainable, I'm talking about a sizeable percentage of the world's population dying because of heatwaves, shall we see desperate measure being taken? For example some scientists suggested installing sunshades but... Literally a sunshade: deploying an umbrella of sort, in space, so that less heat reaches the heart. Now of course as we've been ruled by luminaries since decades, bringing us to the situation we're in now, I wouldn't be surprised if they managed to fuck up that too: for example by fuxxoring the sunshade and killing another sizeable percentage of the population by creating a new ice age. But really I wonder: at what tipping point shall desperate measures be taken to try to fix things and what could those be? That sunshade doesn't seem that crazy or is it?
- micro2588 3mo agoFunding was proposed by Congress during the Biden administration but didn't get a lot of press at the time https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/01/white-house-cautiously-opens-door-to-study-blocking-suns-rays-to-slow-global-warming-ee-00104513 https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/01/white-house-cautiou...
- fragmede 3mo agoCloud cover to raise the Earth's albedo can be done by a smaller independent team, vs needing the whole world to agree to stop polluting.
- 4gotunameagain 3mo agoLarge scale ecosystem modifications run huge risks of unintended consequences. Due to the chaotic nature of these systems we are incapable of predicting the effect of our actions. It could very well be that by artificially increasing cloud cover we cross a different tipping point with grave consequences (e.g. flooding, ecosystem collapse from lack of sunlight, or who knows what)
- TranquilMarmot 3mo ago> I'm talking about a sizeable percentage of the world's population dying because of heatwaves, shall we see desperate measure being taken? At that point, won't it be too late?
- mvdtnz 3mo agoI could not be more excited about the upcoming warm, dry summer here in NZ's North Island. The media keeps trying to scare us but I'm pumped. I can't do anything about the future of planet Earth and I'm not going to ring my hands and lose sleep over it, but if atmospheric changes are going to result in some great seasons I'm here for it.
- giardini 3mo agoRemember that you don't need AC to beat the heat - we've had other options for centuries. One of my favorites is fans. I've lived in a hot subtropical climate most of my life. The best modes of cooling are, in order of comfort: shade, clothing, breeze, fans, A/C. Our rather large home didn't have A/C when we bought it. But it did have a huge attic fan that kept the air moving throughout the entire house on hot days. That worked fine from the time the house was built in about 1930 to present (yes, it's still there). At one point we installed a few window units in designated rooms but they were never necessary. shade - Even on a hot day it's very comfortable in tree-shaded areas. The trees cool the air. clothes - wear light-colored clothes with fabrics that wick perspiration. breeze - if you live in an area with a constant breeze, you'll be more comfortable. Sometimes that comes with a caveat: watch out for storms associated with coastal breezes (such as hurricanes). fans - sometimes a small room fan is just right. Or if you live someplace where you can pay someone to wave a palm frond around you all day, so much the better. A/C may seem to be the best but imo it isn't b/c it is not transparent: other people are always messing with the controls, there are insufficent/incorrectly-demarcated "zones" in a building, the humidity varies unsuitably, condensation forms in unexpected areas (even inside walls and under floors) and you don't find out for 12 years, etc.
- lazide 3mo agoFans do you no good when the humidity is above a certain point. You’re also losing a lot of water to evaporation from sweating if it is doing anything at all. There is a reason why Singapore switched to AC pretty much everywhere except old hawker centers, and why it’s not alone.
- ndsipa_pomu 3mo ago> Fans do you no good when the humidity is above a certain point. That would be related to the wet-bulb temperature. If the wet-bulb temperature is more than about 30°C, then I'd consider the area to be uninhabitable. (A wet bulb temperature of 35°C is considered lethal). Fans are surprisingly effective as most people are stationary and thus produce almost a bubble of high humidity around themselves. Fans disperse that localised high humidity and allow people to effectively reduce their temperature through sweating/evaporation.