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Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC
- thedogeye 4mo agoI thought this was about the college football conference for a second.
- XCSme 4mo ago> We recently submitted a confidential S-1. We expect it to leak so we’re just announcing it. What?
- SilverElfin 4mo agoThey expect someone to leak that they had submitted it, so they’re just saying it themselves. I don’t think they mean that the actual contents (like financial projections and all that) will be leaked.
- hmokiguess 4mo agoNarcissist marketing, Sam loves it.
- deleted 4mo ago[deleted]
- energy123 4mo ago[dead]
- ortusdux 4mo agoI wonder how much of it is photos?
- rvz 4mo agoThis is the true definition of AGI and will be achieved this year. The I in AGI has always stood for IPO.
- hmokiguess 4mo agoAltman Gets his IPO
- iyeyerjdsd 4mo ago[dead]
- root-parent 4mo agoWell if you reverse OpenAI ... the first letter is I and the last two are P O...
- onlyrealcuzzo 4mo agoArtificially Generated Internal-rate-of-Return
- mlmonkey 4mo agoWhat's the point of a "confidential S-1"?? Isn't the S-1 supposed to inform potential investors?!? So ... shouldn't it _not_ be confidential??
- tyre 4mo agoThe SEC needs to review it before approving a company to go public at all. It’s targeted at investors but they need to clear it, ask questions, demand changes, etc.
- simonw 4mo agoAnthropic did exactly the same thing on June 1st: https://www.anthropic.com/news/confidential-draft-s1-sec https://www.anthropic.com/news/confidential-draft-s1-sec
- throw0101a 4mo agoNote the word "Draft". Once it no longer is being drafted—and agreed upon by all parties to meet the needed regulatory standards—it will become final and be publicly published.
- JumpCrisscross 4mo ago> What's the point of a "confidential S-1"? “Under the JOBS Act, it has been possible since April 2012 for ‘emerging growth companies’ to file a Form S-1 on a confidential basis, only making the contents public 21 days prior to the road show for the IPO” [1]. Since 2017 and 2025 it’s been available to basically all companies [2]. Withdrawing an IPO looks bad. Confidential filing lets issuers start and have the option to abort the process without taking reputational damage. (The specifics of OpenAI’s filing, and any back and forth with the SEC, remains confidential.) [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Form_S-1 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Form_S-1 [2] https://www.sec.gov/about/divisions-offices/division-corporation-finance/draft-registration-statement-processing-procedures-expanded https://www.sec.gov/about/divisions-offices/division-corpora...
- uxhacker 4mo agoAlso according to the Financial Times that this confidential filling gives employees who are considering to sell shares transparency.
- koolba 4mo agoWould be hilarious if they used an LLM to write it and it started hallucinating revenue streams and numbers.
- stanmancan 4mo agoI’m pretty sure they’re smart enough to remember to put “make no mistakes” in their prompt.
- ai_critic 4mo ago> We have not decided on timing yet; it may be a while because there are things we want to do that are likely easier as a private company. Presumably those things were harder as a charity/non-profit.
- krona 4mo agoThey need to financially engineer a good looking quarter beforehand. Perhaps Larry Ellison can cut them a nice quid pro quo for a few months to make OpenAI look profitable (like the SpaceX/Anthropic deal), although that's probably unlikely given the debt Oracle is taking on to build it's infra.
- anukin 4mo agoYou are forgetting the google space x deal too
- deleted 4mo ago[deleted]
- Eji1700 4mo ago> They need to financially engineer a good looking quarter beforehand. Eh given the quality of recent IPO proposals I think they can just say there's a couple zillion air molecules to turn into gold and be done with it.
- deleted 4mo ago[deleted]
- tsunamifury 4mo agoyou mean the 50% of its company that was leveraged to purchase Paramount?
- taneq 4mo agoJust depreciate their server farms less this year to reduce losses. ;)
- 4mo ago
- deleted 4mo ago[deleted]
- outside1234 4mo ago"We want to be ready to grift public money at a moment's notice, but there are still opportunities to grift private money right now, so we are holding off."
- shimman 4mo agoGrowing worry I have are the dozens of newly minted corporate elites that will continue to wreck havoc on the tech industry mandating their golden paths while America still lacks medicare for all, college for all, and universal childcare. If you think Sam Altman is bad for the industry, imagine what 200 of him will be like!
- philipallstar 4mo agoWe had universal childcare until we converted single-income families into dual-income families in order to make the boomers who they bought houses from rich.
- lokar 4mo agoAnd to give women full agency over their own lives
- philipallstar 4mo agoNo one has full agency over their life. The men who generally work harder, longer, and for more of their lives, that are shorter as a result, don't have fully agency. Having a boss isn't agency.
- komali2 4mo agoOk, then, to give women as much agency as men have.
- philipallstar 4mo agoHaving to work is less agency than not having to work. Being able to choose to work, and choose a nice lifestyle career while your husband has to work a hard job to afford the lifestyle is far more agency than men have.
- 4mo ago
- bpt3 4mo agoI'm just anticipating the next version of “Community-based EBITDA" that sama rolls out in the latest attempt to convince everyone that spending >$1 to earn $1 is a good idea.
- mekdoonggi 4mo ago"AGI-enabled EBITDA"
- guluarte 4mo ago"Hey, don't invest too much in Spacex or Anthropic. We're planning an IPO too."
- winfredJa 4mo agoThis is the real reason. I don't think equity market has enough capital to support three companies of this size.
- vessenes 4mo agoSpaceX IPO is slated to be $75-80bn — the market has size for that. We also have seen robust options and finance markets for AAPL and NVDA over the last years that make the broader ecosystem not overly worrying in my armchair opinion. I’m not clear how much crossover demand there is between SX and Anthropic/oAI — that seems like the more interesting question. I’m guessing if we had Anthropic/oAI launching at the same time we’d see some pretty interesting capital dynamics.
- fc417fc802 4mo ago> if we had Anthropic/oAI launching at the same time Don't we have exactly that? There are S-1 announcements for SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI. Google is selling to raise money for infra (IIRC). There's an absurd amount of money flowing in at present (prospectively at least).
- vessenes 4mo agoThe reality is that the large banks running these IPOs will know, to an extreme level of granularity, how much demand for the IPO there is at the chosen price point, and will advise accordingly. None of the companies needs an IPO right now, with the possible exception of oAI — I haven’t looked at their financials recently. But SX is cashflow positive as of today, and Anthropic is able to become so without giving up much on their R&D program. So for those two, it’s a matter of timing. Like a video game release schedule or a film release, SX has carved out a window and is going first, and regardless of messaging, all the teams are going to be watching it VERY VERY carefully. If it goes well, I’d expect Anthropic to jump next. If that goes well, oAI would likely go right after. If it goes mid, oAI may wait to improve their financial story or fundraise private at worse valuations for a while, or, or, or. Agreed that the dream for the next guys down the road is to pick up some recycled capital gains from sx and of course some new capital. If SX is a flop, then these IPO dreams will slow down for a minute.
- fear91 4mo agoI don’t get what’s the point of non-profits if you can IPO them. How does that make any sense?
- wmf 4mo agoThey're IPOing a commercial subsidiary of OpenAI so that it can donate even more money to the parent nonprofit. (Actually the subsidiary is everything and the nonprofit is a do-nothing fig leaf but the IRS and Congress seem to not care enough to stop them.)
- Yizahi 4mo agoChecks and balances dear sirs and madams, checks and balances. Excepts apparently it meant cheques used to top up account balances.
- deleted 4mo ago[deleted]
- nonethewiser 4mo agoChecks and balances concern constraints on government power. Whether OpenAI's structure complies with the law is a question of regulation, not checks and balances.
- Yizahi 4mo agoIt's not a question of regulation, but a question of enforcing said regulation and a question of enforcing a lawful process which follows a breach of a regulation. Which is exactly a spirit of the phrase "checks and balances". It means that if one branch breaks law, then the other branch enforces a compliance with laws/regulations. Of even inside the same branch, if a temporary elected doofus in charge is breaking the law, then people even lower in hierarchy will enforce normal branch functioning. Which in practice was super easy to break, sabotage and blackmail, so neither checking nor balancing happened, everyone went corrupt or impotent simultaneously.
- 4mo ago
- cloudengineer94 4mo agoHere we go
- cloudengineer94 4mo agoHere we go… Let’s see if retail investors are indeed exit liquidity or not
- mekdoonggi 4mo agoWhen you consider that all of this capital could have been deployed to productive enterprise, it's like we already are.
- anukin 4mo agoPretty much is, at this point. Spcx is oversubscribed.
- cj 4mo agoSource
- jpkw 4mo agothere are plenty of sources reporting this: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-08/spacex-ipo-is-said-to-be-well-oversubscribed-orders-close-wed https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-08/spacex-ip... https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/spacex-ipo-running-two-times-oversubscribed-sources-say-2026-06-05/ https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/spacex-ipo-running-...
- deadbabe 4mo agoYou’re always someone’s exit liquidity.
- dofm 4mo agoOr just… Americans: https://www.notus.org/technology/trump-blindsided-ai-companies-equity-meeting-plan https://www.notus.org/technology/trump-blindsided-ai-compani... OpenAI CEO Sam Altman pitched the idea of turning over shares in his company to Trump in early 2025 and discussed the matter again with senior officials in recent weeks
- stinger 4mo agoThis is like a slack message
- stuxnet79 4mo agoA very unserious tone from probably the most consequential company of our lifetimes. It's vibing all the way to the top I guess.
- gordonhart 4mo agoI prefer this tone to fake marketing speak. If they’d done a proper job here they’d be accused of having GPT write it. At least this is organic laziness!
- aiisascam 4mo ago[dead]
- Nicholas_C 4mo agoTheir tone is just as fake as typical fake marketing speak - they are trying to come off as nonchalant. I bet this announcement was wordsmithed to hell.
- stuxnet79 4mo agoOnly thing missing from this comms masterpiece was all lowercase.
- shepherdjerred 4mo agoI wish all announcements were this terse and candid
- aiisascam 4mo ago[dead]
- kylecazar 4mo agoWhat a weird tone this is written in.
- sigmar 4mo agoI think it is intended to sound like Sam Altman. Would look exactly like a tweet of his if it didn't have capitalized characters.
- throw03172019 4mo agoWas this meant as an internal team post?
- lnrd 4mo agoWhat was that Warren Buffett's quote about everyone trying to leave the party seconds before midnight in a room where there are no clocks? I think it was at peak of the dot com bubble
- n42 4mo agoI looked it up: The line separating investment and speculation, which is never bright and clear, becomes blurred still further when most market participants have recently enjoyed triumphs. Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money. After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball. They know that overstaying the festivities — that is, continuing to speculate in companies that have gigantic valuations relative to the cash they are likely to generate in the future — will eventually bring on pumpkins and mice. But they nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party. Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There’s a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands.
- matheusmoreira 4mo agoWe all want to sell the top and buy the bottom.
- recursivecaveat 4mo agoLetter dated Feb 28th 2000, NASDAQ would hit the peak of the bubble March 10th.
- rfgplk 4mo agoCompanies IPOing should be forced to put up their estimated market cap as collateral in cash. Oh what is that? You don't have $1 trillion in cash to put up? Cool, you're not a $1 trillion dollar company then.
- verbify 4mo agoCompanies always trade at a premium to book, so how would that work?
- missedthecue 4mo agoLast year Chegg was trading below net cash (meaning their market cap was smaller than cash in the bank minus debt). Might still be, I haven't checked in a while. There were maybe a hundred on the Tokyo stock exchange trading below net cash.
- lmm 4mo agoSome companies trade at a discount to book value (very normal for banks, for example, especially those from e.g. Pakistan).
- csallen 4mo agoThis makes no sense. Market cap and cash reserves are two different stats for a reason. Why would they need to be the same? Just to make things simpler for people who don't actually know what market cap means? (Which, granted, is the vast majority of people.)
- xorgun 4mo ago[dead]
- kommunicate 4mo ago...what?
- lanthissa 4mo agothe marketcap represents the cashflow estimated by the market to be taken out of the business over the lifetime of the company discounted today. your suggestion makes no sense
- sciencejerk 4mo agoWhen/how are IPO dates released?
- JumpCrisscross 4mo ago> When/how are IPO dates released? Once the SEC declares a registration statement "effective," the company is subject to the Exchange Act's reporting requirements. Theoretically one can do this and not list one's shares. That's dumb, so nobody does it. In practice, we'll get a couple weeks to possibly days ahead of the listing. That process is partly governed by the SEC accepting the company's S-1. It's mostly down to negotiations between the company, its underwriters and IPO investors.
- dzonga 4mo agowhy not let it be public ?
- dzonga 4mo agoyou release a confidential one - if you don't wanna release info that might empower competitors or you have bad numbers that might spook investors. if you have a 'moat' then you wouldn't worry about releasing a draft S1. I assume OpenAI has neither.
- thallavajhula 4mo agoElon is not going to be happy about this. He's been vocal about his dislike towards the business model OpenAI chose to run with.
- jorblumesea 4mo agothat's not the issue, Elon is just a petulant child that is losing the ai game ever since he left OAI. Elon wanted full control, and that dispute over control is the central issue. Elon is 100% a for profit person, it's just a 10 year rivalry between Sam and Elon.
- thallavajhula 4mo agoAnd to top that, he lost the battle in the court recently.
- nkozyra 4mo agoElon wanted precisely the same model.
- bandrami 4mo agoI personally think Elon is willing to take a hit on SpaceX's IPO Friday because he knows it will suck the air out of Sam's attempt at exiting.
- cco 4mo agoHere is my low key prediction about the purchase of Cursor by Elon. Cursor is purportedly a huge customer of OAI, maybe a top five? I think Elon bought it to have leverage on sama. If timed correctly, Elon could pull the plug on a huge customer (Cursor) the quarter before OAI try to IPO.
- jordemort 4mo agoI have instructed my financial advisor to keep my exposure to the upcoming wave of AI IPOs as close to zero as possible.
- shermantanktop 4mo agoSo...all cash?
- system2 4mo agoI'd assume healthcare would be the answer.
- zerobees 4mo agoGiven that the US govt is reportedly talking to OpenAI about taking a stake, your only choice might be Zimbabwean dollars.
- jordemort 4mo agoOne of my least favorite things about AI is that every time you suggest you don’t want anything to do with it, there’s a horde of rapist-brained twits like you waiting in the wings to cry about how inevitable it is. Shut up and go away.
- lifeisstillgood 4mo agoI find the irony delicious that this S1 will be fed into ChatGPT so often looking for flaws and edge cases that the LLM will develop sentience just to tell people to stop…
- Traumen 4mo ago[dead]
- chronci3740 4mo ago[dead]
- Helloworldboy 4mo ago[dead]
- lellow 4mo agoWhy do you say this? It's OK to make such a bold statement, but you gotta share how you came to this conclusion. This helps with a good discussion.
- shillsimon 4mo ago[dead]
- shillsimon 4mo ago[dead]
- chakintosh 4mo agoI have a feeling that as soon as OpenAI and Anthropic stocks are up for grabs, the market will implode.
- inatreecrown2 4mo agoyep, same here.
- lbrito 4mo agoSame. Glad I'm not alone.
- brazukadev 4mo agoI think that might not even happen depending on how SpaceX IPO goes.
- andsoitis 4mo ago> the market Which market? The stock market? Or the tech stocks? Or something else?
- system2 4mo agoThen someone says the market; they definitely mean the stock market. I don't know what else you can understand from it.
- andsoitis 4mo agoWhy would the entire market implode?
- chakintosh 4mo agoBecause in 2008, the housing bubble popped and it dragged with it the entire stock market. Stocks are more interdependent than most people realize.
- lbrito 4mo ago
- Traumen 4mo ago[dead]
- jansan 4mo agoStarting the first three sentences with "We" does not pass the Voigh-Kampff / "I am not a robot" test.
- deleted 4mo ago[deleted]
- zuzululu 4mo agoso who is buying at the open? anthropic, spacex, openai i think that we are going to see another leg up but this is gonna be it for a while
- stingraycharles 4mo agoFrom what I understand, SpaceX has been engineered such that all kinds of passive investment funds (pension funds, ETFs) will buy into it at their first rebalancing, and as such it should get a decent amount of volume after open. Having said that, it’s the company I have least faith in due to the recent acquisition of xAI / Twitter.
- blourvim 4mo agoI heard that the rule changes which would allow SpaceX to be auto bought by those funds has been blocked, previous stock seasoning rules will apply
- JumpCrisscross 4mo ago> the rule changes which would allow SpaceX to be auto bought by those funds has been blocked Nothing was blocked. S&P 500 never adopted them. Influencers misunderstood what a consultation document is and presented a question as a fait accompli. NASDAQ 100 changed its rules, as did S&P and Russell's total-market funds. But for NASDAQ 100 I'm going to go ahead and say this was a brilliant market move, since nobody ever talked about that index before this.
- kasey_junk 4mo agoCrsp changed as well.
- JumpCrisscross 4mo ago> Crsp changed as well Yes. For their total-market fund. That makes sense. (CRSP is probably the most-significant index to make the change. But even then, it won't be a significant source of demand. Total market means lots of components.)
- SwellJoe 4mo agoThe cheap money for subsidizing tokens has begun to run out. Not all gone, yet, but it's getting harder to pretend the chatbots are cost-effective to run. Soon, they're going to need to tap a larger pool for money: Everyone's retirement accounts.
- mgraczyk 4mo agoThe numbers are public now, this is obviously false
- SwellJoe 4mo agoWhich public numbers are you referring to that contradict what I said?
- paustint 4mo agoIf SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic get fast tracked to be on NASDAQ or S&P 500 then they are required to be included in index funds which will be automatically included in retirement accounts and that will give investors an exit. https://youtu.be/yhRjvX_t4hc?si=N-a-s_5ttWKfVeJZ https://youtu.be/yhRjvX_t4hc?si=N-a-s_5ttWKfVeJZ
- siren2026 4mo agoyes it will keep the grift going for a couple months due to the index artificial demand. Actually, SpaceX timed the unlocking of their shares to the timeline index funds will have to buy. Guess who will hold the bag when it's all going downhill?
- JumpCrisscross 4mo ago> If SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic get fast tracked to be on NASDAQ or S&P 500 S&P 500 said no. NASDAQ 100 is a tiny tech index. The retirement conspiracy could have been a thing, and its effect isn't zero, but oh my god was it overblown by the influencer crowd.
- 4mo ago
- brikym 4mo agoLet me guess... wall street bets is going to pump $OPEN stock?
- voganmother42 4mo agoGood thing they bought that podcast…
- fHr 4mo agocodex is great
- moralestapia 4mo ago[meta, off-topic but relevant] Maybe the solution to s..tposters is to do what Wikipedia does. Some articles/topics are "protected" and new/unverified accounts cannot touch them.
- to11mtm 4mo agoThe timing of all of these IPOs has a smell similar to both the US Mortgage company trend shortly before interest rates spiked and all those companies started shedding jobs progressively since, and/or the DotCom IPO boom. Where we land remains to be seen.
- gekoxyz 4mo agoWhile I agree on the smell I think that the situations are really different. I am not an economist but I think that other than the situation of the huge amount of money in play we are in a really different case. The general user (and I have noticed it especially with today's WWDC) basically doesn't get any benefit from AI (neither LLMs, image generation or photo editing). They were promised living like in Wall-e in 5 years and they are basically still living the same life. White collar jobs slightly benefited from the LLMs and same with programmers (while many say that they can get huge leverage the public results of what software companies produce didn't get the same benefit). Everyone knows the market will crash, nobody knows how much.
- charcircuit 4mo agoThere is ton of utility. I use it all the time to study, to look up what's happening in the world, to understand the context behind what others are saying, cooking recipes, and much more. Considering LLMs have access to tools for searching the internet they have a superset of the capabilities of Google and consumers got a lot of value from Google. In fact from putting ads on the search results Google has made billions of dollars from such consumers getting value from their service.
- Eufrat 4mo agoWhen you ask it to give you a digest of current events or as a study aid how are you ensuring that what your reading is a valid representation of the source material? Has it never given you false information?
- charcircuit 4mo ago
- system2 4mo agoWhat a shitty company, and this shitty announcement proves they are going to be shittier after the IPO.
- nonethewiser 4mo agoWhy do you feel that way?
- system2 4mo agoThey wait until the market is about to reject the AI hype. They are trying to steal the retail money at the last second. That's why I feel this way. Also, I really REALLY dislike their censorship in the chats and coding. I cannot discuss anything, and they always hide the truth until I show the evidence and still reject.
- aiisascam 4mo ago[dead]
- toufka 4mo agoHow much did Apple (via Google (via xAI (via SpaceX))) just crush their product? Seems an awful lot like Apple will commoditize the models that power Siri, and just “sherlocked” a trillion dollar private company.
- BudaDude 4mo agoIf you think Apple just sherlocked OpenAI, you havn't been paying attention to the pivot OpenAI has been doing for the last 7 months
- wyager 4mo agoApple has completely dropped the ball on every single detail of AI rollout for the last 5 years - why do you think they will suddenly stop now? My prior is that the new siri stuff is just as vaporware as the previous "apple intelligence" rollout
- JumpCrisscross 4mo ago> Apple has completely dropped the ball Apple has sat out a capital-allocation shitshow. Its investors and likely customers are better off for their patience.
- boringg 4mo agoJury is out on that one -- will have to see what happens in the next couple of years. I don't think you can say better off with full confidence right now. Very possible you could say that in the future..
- cmiles8 4mo agoUnless the picture and trajectory changes dramatically I don’t see OpenAI managing to pull off a successful IPO. If they do manage to go public it will likely only be at a fraction of what they’re worth now, with existing investors rushing for the exits to avoid completely losing their shirts. The revenue trajectory is now anemic, no clear sign of stopping the cash burn anytime soon, and all the liability associated with all things Sam Altman at this point. Frankly it’s a mess. In Warren Buffet’s Cinderella party scenario it’s 11:59 at the party and someone just found an accurate clock.
- pseudosavant 4mo agoIt is increasingly look like OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX (xAI) are going to burst their own AI bubble by going public. Their businesses aren't ready for that kind of quarter-by-quarter grinding scrutiny. It is going to be bad when their lockup periods end.
- ifwinterco 4mo agoBubble has to burst at some point, so IPO now and at least get some exit liquidity. If you wait too long you’ll never be able to exit at all. I think that’s the thought process and why they’re in such a rush. In fact all three are in a sort of race, you probably don’t want to be the last one to IPO
- downrightmike 4mo agoThe bubble burst when they bought all the ram wafers to stifle global and local competition. They can't compete and the real costs are insane. Scale won't solve it even if they pave the continent.
- joxdosba 4mo agoLike the TSLA bubble has burst?
- lelanthran 4mo ago> It is increasingly look like OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX (xAI) are going to burst their own AI bubble by going public. They don't really have a choice - there is a finite amount of money in the open market, and the first one to IPO is going to get the lion's share of that money.
- lljk_kennedy 4mo agoReality left the building a long time ago. I think a lot of world models of how things "should" go are severely outdated.
- Brybry 4mo agoThe SEC has a proposed rule in public comment period right now that will change quarterly reporting to semiannual reporting. [1] https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2026-42-sec-proposes-amendments-permit-optional-semiannual-reporting-public-companies https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2026-42-sec-prop... [2] https://www.sec.gov/rules-regulations/2026/05/s7-2026-15 https://www.sec.gov/rules-regulations/2026/05/s7-2026-15 [3] https://www.sec.gov/files/rules/proposed/2026/33-11414.pdf https://www.sec.gov/files/rules/proposed/2026/33-11414.pdf
- merelydev 4mo agoIn the last week Alphabet has positioned itself to go on the offense, going after exccess liquidity and excess compute. I fear that OpenAi and Anthropic would not be able to compete against an adveserial Alphabet which owns it's own models, hardware, large corpus of data, talent and network effects. My prediction is that OpenAI and Anthropic will eventually be crushed by Alphabet as they run out of investment and compute, leaving Alphabet to have a monopoly on AI, at least in the west. This is why I think OpenAI and Anthropic should really be one company, if they join forces and pool together investments and compute they'll stand a chance.
- lelanthran 4mo ago> My prediction is that OpenAI and Anthropic will eventually be crushed by Alphabet as they run out of investment and compute, leaving Alphabet to have a monopoly on AI, at least in the west. It's the other way around (but the result would be the same): Alphabet has no need to make a 100x exit for the investors, and so can offer the service at cost + %markup, while Anthropic and OpenAI are VC funded, meaning that they need to show 10x - 100x exit for the investors. IOW, there is no moat, Alphabet would have market-related pricing while VC-backed corps cannot offer market-related pricing.
- benterix 4mo agoWhile you're probably right, reading your comment from a consumer perspective it makes me think how much we've normalized bait & switch.
- logicchains 4mo ago>It's the other way around (but the result would be the same): Alphabet has no need to make a 100x exit for the investors, and so can offer the service at cost + %markup, while Anthropic and OpenAI are VC funded, meaning that they need to show 10x - 100x exit for the investors. If this was true, Alphabet wouldn't currently be charging more for a worse product than OpenAI and Anthropic.
- s1artibartfast 4mo agoFun idea, but they may be better competition coming Competing with Google with different teams, models, and business strategies. Im sure google will also be happy selling the adds they put in their models for 1/3 of the revenue. The scary thing for google is if the AI companies start moving into ad targeting and open sales portals.
- terekhindc 4mo ago[flagged]