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Macron is making up numbers. Unless the EU member states actually impose capital controls, investors will continue to send their capital wherever it can earn th
by nradov 10mo ago
Macron is making up numbers. Unless the EU member states actually impose capital controls, investors will continue to send their capital wherever it can earn the highest returns. Profitable investment opportunities in the EU remain slim and so far they seem uninterested in pursuing a growth policy.
- hnlmorg 10mo agoMaybe, but so does Trump. And that’s who these figures are really meant for. I doubt it will make any difference though, because Trump is about as brain damaged as they come.
- anovikov 10mo agoIndeed it sounds a lot like Trump's bs, so Trump might buy it. It's almost like "those s**hole countries sending is their worst to eat our cats and dogs" or "subsidies we send every year to all over the world".
- neilwilson 10mo agoExcept in a floating exchange rate that isn’t what happens. For somebody to leave the Eurozone for the Dollar zone there has to be somebody coming in the opposite direction to exchange with. Macron is still talking nonsense of course. The Euros never left in the first place.
- michaelt 10mo ago> For somebody to leave the Eurozone for the Dollar zone there has to be somebody coming in the opposite direction to exchange with. Does that mean trade imbalances don’t exist?
- neilwilson 10mo agoCorrect. They don’t. It’s an illusion caused by where the accounting boundary is drawn. That’s why “imbalances” never close. If goods and services were exchanged for little models of the Eiffel Tower nobody would say there was an imbalance. Yet we do when we exchange for Euros.
- the_mitsuhiko 10mo ago> Unless the EU member states actually impose capital controls, investors will continue to send their capital wherever it can earn the highest returns. You don't need to introduce capital controls to make it unattractive to invest in the US. There are plenty of options that the EU could pull that would make investments abroad very unpopular quickly.
- rwmj 10mo agoThose are capital controls by another name.
- bryanrasmussen 10mo agobut not necessarily capital controls by a similar legislative difficulty, although at this point it's somewhat abstract what is being discussed.
- baxtr 10mo agoLike how…?
- the_mitsuhiko 10mo agoBy taking inspiration from the US. The US has PFIC for instance and many other reporting requirements that make it more attractive to invest in the US than abroad.
- alephnerd 10mo agoYea, but how? The EU can barely get the Mercosur FTA out the door. How can it even attempt to make such a drastic change that would make FDI in the EU less attractive than equally large and equally onerous China? And that ignores the fact that states like Poland, Ireland, and Czechia would ferociously fight back at anything that threatens their FDI driven economies. Even Ireland opposed the Anti-Coercion Instrument [0] four days ago, and everyone still remembers Belgium's unilateral opposition to seizing frozen Russian assets barely a month ago. [0] - https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/be-no-doubt-eu-will-retaliate-any-new-us-tariffs-ireland-says-2026-01-18/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/be-no-doubt-eu-will-ret...
- nine_zeros 10mo ago> Macron is making up numbers So is Trump. This is all just response to bullying. "I got big muscles" "Oh yeah, I got big muscles too" This all is happening because America elected a criminal clown, twice.
- godzillabrennus 10mo agoLet me fix that for you. This is all happening because the institutions in America failed to deliver for working-class people for over four decades, and Americans got fed up, elected a billionaire willing to be a bulldozer of those institutions and the systems that work for knowledge workers, twice.
- hello_moto 10mo agoAll politicians will say what people want to hear.
- forty 10mo agoAnd how does that work for them?
- throwawaypath 10mo agoFantastic for my knowledge worker 401(k)!
- hypeatei 10mo agoWho knew that cutting taxes while keeping government spending high AND lowering interest rates could result in so much free money going around? That coupled with the dollar losing 10% of its value in a year, of course stocks are higher than before. Inflation and dollar losing value = winning!
- vkou 10mo agoOh, and, of course, a deficit is a tax increase that's deferred to the future. It's one thing to spend a deficit on something long-term useful, it's another thing to piss it away.
- bhouston 10mo agoPolitics drives decision making in addition to just seeking returns, especially for government affiliated funds, e.g.: https://www.reuters.com/business/swedish-pension-fund-alecta-cuts-us-treasury-holdings-citing-us-politics-dagens-2026-01-21/ https://www.reuters.com/business/swedish-pension-fund-alecta... https://www.cbsnews.com/news/danish-pension-fund-treasuries-government-finances-trump-greenland/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/danish-pension-fund-treasuries-... (And remember that India and China combined reduced their holdings of US treasures by at least $50B in 2025: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/amid-global-gold-rush-india-and-china-are-dumping-us-treasuries/articleshow/126693854.cms?from=mdr https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/amid-global-... ) Canadian tourism visits to the US have dropped massively in the last year, not because Canadian tourist spots are better or more fun now (e.g. pure market forces), but again because of politics: https://www.bbc.com/travel/article/20251211-where-are-all-the-canadians-going https://www.bbc.com/travel/article/20251211-where-are-all-th...
- ilikehurdles 10mo agoContrary to the implication, the Swedish fund that possibly sold $8b of its $100b worth of US Treasuries did not cite politics as its reason for doing so, and no part of the article backs up that claim. Additionally, selling out of the US dollar as the fed aimed to cut rates and as the dollar declined from historic highs against the Euro seems sensible regardless of politics. Denmark has been exiting foreign bonds for 10 years, down from a high of $24b in 2016 to $10b in 2025. It’s not only part of a trend, but the cited $100m of bonds sold makes up a negligible 0.00026% of US treasuries. On that note, 1 USD buys nearly $1.40 CAD. Politics makes it easy to write stories that paint an incomplete or incorrect picture.
- Muromec 10mo ago>Contrary to the implication, the Swedish fund that possibly sold $8b of its $100b worth of US Treasuries did not cite politics as its reason for doing so Which doesn't mean it wasn't the reason.
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- TacticalCoder 10mo ago[flagged]
- withinboredom 10mo agoOne thing I remember from civics class: governments should think in terms of generations; not profits/losses.
- thatguy0900 10mo agoThat's true, but you have to actually be investing in growth for it to come up. Instead the next generation will get both spiriling interest payments and crumbling infrastructure.
- lejalv 10mo agomeanwhile 6-week vacations, high speed trains, walkable cities, generous child benefits, and, well, quality of life salute you from here
- petcat 10mo agoAll great things for sure. But the French economy has been stagnant for decades. There is no growth. One option would be to allow more immigration, but not allow the immigrants to have access to the public benefits. Obviously that is a divisive political issue they struggle badly with.
- VWWHFSfQ 10mo ago> the French economy has been stagnant for decades. There is no growth. This is one of the biggest reasons why it is trivially easy for USA, China, and Russia to squeeze them (and the whole EU) from all sides.
- ifwinterco 10mo agoThe issue is a lot of French people in the private sector (small businesses, contractors etc.) actually work really hard and often long hours to subsidise public sector employees barely working and retiring at 55. At the end of the day, that just isn't sustainable politically and it's pretty questionable if it's morally correct either
- gogopromptless 10mo agoCounter argument: people invest in bonds. Quite a lot of bonds in fact. Picking up pennies in front of a steam roller and counterparty risk seem to be perennial favorites of youth, but I hazard to guess only a minority in the market have flesh yet untouched by fire.
- abirch 10mo agoUnfortunately the US Dollar is devaluing. In the past year the dollar went down by 11%. That means SP 500 which has gone up 13% in the past year has only gone up 2% for a European.
- f1shy 10mo agoThe fact that the EUR/U$S parity did not change much means EUR devaluated about the same, doesn’t it?
- chairmansteve 10mo agoNo the $ devalued against the euro by about 11% in the past 12 months. Look at a chart.
- nullhole 10mo agoEUR/USD increased ~13% in the past year https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=USD&view=1Y https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=USD&view=1Y
- victorbjorklund 10mo agoFalse. Dollar has crashed against Euro.
- deleted 10mo ago[deleted]
- everybodyknows 10mo agoThe DXY dollar index: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.DXY?qsearchterm=dollar%20index https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.DXY?qsearchterm=dollar%20index The big move down happened March-June.
- ugh123 10mo agoCoincides with major tariff actions by the admin
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- kmac_ 10mo agoNo idea what this number actually is. If it includes pension funds' investments in the US stock market and US bonds, then it is underestimated.
- deleted 10mo ago[deleted]
- downrightmike 10mo agoSimilar thing to what the UK did post-Brexit?
- ugh123 10mo ago> investors will continue to send their capital wherever it can earn the highest returns Maybe. But they're allowed to avoid junk bonds and other "risky investments".
- pseudony 10mo agoYes, but also no. Pension funds around these parts are big, we are often forced to pay into them. Years ago, I noticed they started advertising green funds. Would not be surprised to see options that exclude the US too. If you look at Trumps polls across EU countries, it is heavily in the negative and a lot of us are wanting to put our money where our mouth is about it.
- wtcactus 10mo ago> Pension funds around these parts are big Not really. Most EU countries don’t even have noticeable state pension funds (and one of the biggest culprits is actually France). They just rely on younger people to support the pensions of the retired ones.
- crote 10mo agoYou're forgetting about private pension funds. Those are massive, and often mandated by a collective bargaining agreement.
- wtcactus 10mo agoNot in France they aren’t. And not in most EU countries that still rely in pay as you go pension systems. For comparison. France’s pension funds (total public and private) are 12% of their GDP. Total EU pension funds are also around 20% of total EU GDP. USA pension funds are 170% of their GDP!!!
- pseudony 10mo agoIt's not either-or, necessarily. Yes, we have a pays-as-you-go pension system in Denmark (sigh). But regulations were also changed a while back such that employees must pay into a pension scheme of their own. In our case, that's handled via your employer and there's a minimum contribution limit and often incentives to pay a higher level. ((not my area of expertise))
- tasuki 10mo ago> Profitable investment opportunities in the EU remain slim Is this investment advice?
- nradov 10mo agoYes. You should only invest in profitable opportunities.
- hackable_sand 10mo agoThis is presented axiomatically but it's trivially proven false.
- hackable_sand 10mo agoIf American workers can properly organize general strikes then those investments look much less appealing.