10 ms·
I think that more than physics the bottleneck for this is political (at least in the US). All of the local large projects around me are expensive because of mas
by ecshafer 1y ago
I think that more than physics the bottleneck for this is political (at least in the US). All of the local large projects around me are expensive because of massive amounts of red tape (environmental studies, zoning, planning), and political patronage systems. After the kick backs, political donations, promises to only work 8 hours a day, only use union labor, hire x police officers for y hours in overtime security positions a month, use xyz contractor etc. a small cost seems to be the actual labor and materials. Hell these robots if they work will be made illlegal.
- tippytippytango 1y agoWe need a silver tongued LLM agent that can align all these forces (and a well provisioned MCP paypal tool for greasing palms)
- matthewolfe 1y agoI believe SchemeFlow [0] is working on solving some of these problem, particularly with the insane reporting requirements. But of course, that still leaves the unions... [0] https://www.schemeflow.com/ https://www.schemeflow.com/
- esseph 1y agoIf there are no jobs, you don't need unions!
- dmix 1y agoThe unions will use their government connections to force the job to exist even if it doesn't need to be. They'll figure out a way to get a union driver sitting in an fully autonomous truck for some invented safety checkbox I remember Louis CK said he had a hell of a time trying to run his own comedy shows so he could offer lower ticket prices for his fans, but because every bit of the theaters were unionized it got really expensive fast and failed. They couldn't even touch the curtains, they had to pay a union guy to stand around all day and his only job was pulling a curtain cord at the right time. Which was some NYC rule.
- inetknght 1y ago> The unions will use their government connections to force the job to exist even if it doesn't need to be. And that's OK. At the end of the day, labor unions exist to help people and not robots. People were worried robots were going to take their jobs. Then people were seeing their jobs get shipped overseas. Today, robots are finally taking over what jobs are left.
- deleted 1y ago[deleted]
- dmix 1y ago> At one of our dinners, Milton recalled traveling to an Asian country in the 1960s and visiting a worksite where a new canal was being built. He was shocked to see that, instead of modern tractors and earth movers, the workers had shovels. He asked why there were so few machines. The government bureaucrat explained: “You don’t understand. This is a jobs program.” To which Milton replied: “Oh, I thought you were trying to build a canal. If it’s jobs you want, then you should give these workers spoons, not shovels.”
- darepublic 1y agoits okay if you belong to the union. It makes the world worse for everybody else
- amarcheschi 1y agoThe 5 days work week, the paid holidays (in the country where they exist), and rights on the place of work wouldn't have been obtained without all the struggles of the working class in the past century, by striking and unionizing. They literally made the world better for everyone (except the people owning companies)
- esseph 1y agoMy FIL spent 30 something years as a union carpenter and for about 15 of that was teaching underprivileged kids carpentry and finding them job placements while rebuilding national parks. That union did just fine for America, it's better off for it having existed.
- andrewkinglear 1y agoYesssssss!
- pj_mukh 1y agoI think this is true, but even after a construction company works through all the approvals the sheer cost of construction is insurmountable. A big part of this is obviously (sometimes union) labor. This happened recently in NIMBY-HQ Berkeley as interest rates crept up [1]. Pre-approved construction sites are sitting empty. I am off the (not so controversial) opinion that labor should be paid fair wages, but I think it's also fair to use tech like this to multiply labor productivity. The last piece is the cost of raw materials, which has also ballooned. [1]: https://www.berkeleyside.org/2025/04/04/berkeley-housing-downtown-vacancies https://www.berkeleyside.org/2025/04/04/berkeley-housing-dow...
- JumpCrisscross 1y ago> A big part of this is obviously (union) labor I live in Wyoming. We don’t have many unions. The cost scourge is still there due to red tape and general fuckery.
- taurath 1y agoRed or blue, those who own property own the levers of power to determine what gets built. I’ve yet to meet anyone who thinks utterly stifling construction restrictions are a good thing, yet they seem to exist everywhere.
- bluGill 1y agoUnions don't help but in most casese they are a tiny problem. The real question is which red tape is really there for good reason.
- SequoiaHope 1y agoIn the best case they certainly would help workers be able to afford the homes they built though. My friend was telling me today that his grandfather came out to California to work as a farm hand, and used that income to buy a home in the area. Imagine doing so now.
- ryandrake 1y ago
- sorcerer-mar 1y agoPermitting, zoning, etc are all like <3% of a construction project’s cost. This is a meme with no basis in reality. All of the cost is labor and materials. That said, the time component of the zoning, permitting etc is very costly due to how real estate projects are funded and evaluated.
- pj_mukh 1y agoI don't think a construction companies bank account cares about whether money is going to the time component or the physical act of going to city hall to apply. Also remember there are frivolous lawsuits, CEQA type laws (which was recently overhauled atleast in California), NEPA on the federal level which most people roll into the cost of permitting/zoning. This is no meme, this component is huge.
- sorcerer-mar 1y agoThe time component isn’t draining bank accounts…
- JumpCrisscross 1y ago> time component isn’t draining bank accounts Of course it is, why would you think the land and other capital can be held for free?
- sorcerer-mar 1y agoThe carrying cost of land is very low compared to any overall project. The issue is that extended timelines drive down the IRR and add risk which is not the same as being expensive to carry. > All of the local large projects around me are expensive because of massive amounts of red tape This just isn’t true. There are projects that could be happening but aren’t because of red tape, but no, a project that’s happening is spending a tiny portion of its capital on red tape.
- 1y ago
- mschuster91 1y ago> massive amounts of red tape (environmental studies, zoning, planning) Well, we've seen what happened without the red tape, when people were free to do whatever the fuck they wanted, and the results often aren't pretty. Sometimes, they were deadly, and occasionally we are reminded of why it might not be a good idea to just let the "free market" do what it wants [1]. Red tape doesn't just appear out of thin air, it appears when politicians are so pissed off about the "free market" that they actually find it worthwhile to do their goddamn jobs for once. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_Palestine,_Ohio,_train_derailment https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_Palestine,_Ohio,_train_de...
- marcosdumay 1y ago> Red tape doesn't just appear out of thin air It mostly appears when politicians force law-enforcement not to punish bad actors for so long that society requires them to punish everybody so that the bad actors will go away.
- mschuster91 1y agoLaw enforcement can only act when laws are broken, that's the point. And building codes, zoning codes, that kind of stuff isn't a matter for law enforcement aka police unless someone gets seriously hurt or killed anyway - but if what happened was legal, it's considered an "act of God".
- marcosdumay 1y agoLaw enforcement isn't the same as police. And laws aren't the same as red-tape.
- pj_mukh 1y agoThis is a red-herring. No one is suggesting loosening laws on whether a building will stay standing. The red tape is literally on whether barn owls in Downtown Mountain View will be hurt by an apartment building. This is not a serious consideration and is blatant NIMBY value capture and should be stopped and removed. What's more, if you don't build that apartment downtown, expect real environmental damage when wild flora and fauna is paved over to build another exurb and highways to connect it all AKA the last 50 years of North American housing policy
- khurs 1y agoThat's not directly related to this topic? This guy isn't starting a construction company. He is intending to sell tech to existing ones.
- CGMthrowaway 1y agoThat is all changing.
- kQq9oHeAz6wLLS 1y agoNot around here. Even the rural cities are starting to emulate the large city bureaucracy with ever increasing regulations and hoops. Unless you know the loopholes.
- bongodongobob 1y agoSo tired of this lazy take. The large projects are expensive because they are large, difficult, and require planning between dozens of different companies and contractors. Do you work in the construction industry? Or do you build "apps"? Real building requires literal blood and sweat and affect ecosystems and communities. It's going to be expensive and it should be.
- JumpCrisscross 1y agoThere is a well-documented cost premium to building in America that isn’t explained by complexity or wages.
- sorcerer-mar 1y agoCould you link to some analysis on this?
- bluGill 1y agohttps://transitcosts.com/ https://transitcosts.com/
- sorcerer-mar 1y agoTransit costs are a small fraction of "construction". I agree our transit development costs are insane though this has a lot more to do with America's very strong concept of property rights (and the weaponization of other apparatus to defend property rights) than simply "red tape." I.e. it's more political than bureaucratic.
- bluGill 1y agomost of that applies to all construction.
- sorcerer-mar 1y ago
- cycomanic 1y agoDo you have any evidence or are you just pulling this out of thin air? All sources I can find estimate pre construction costs between 3 and 10% depending on type of infrastructure and where it is (the US according to [1] is on the lower end with 3-5%). To put this in perspective the profit margins on construction projects is 7% according to [2], which also does attribute skilled labour shortages as the main factor behind increasing construction cost. [1] https://srgexpert.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/The-cost-of-consenting-infrastructure-projects-in-New-Zealand-July-2021.pdf https://srgexpert.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/The-cost-of... [2] https://publications.turnerandtownsend.com/international-construction-market-survey-2024/global-construction-cost-performance https://publications.turnerandtownsend.com/international-con...
- nickff 1y agoConstruction costs are not the only costs relating to development and redevelopment. Financing and project risk are also quite significant. Issues that push back the start of construction vastly increase financing costs, and increase construction costs. A delay in getting a permit, or a stop work order because of an environmental lawsuit runs up the interest payments on the loan used to purchase the real estate, as well as increasing the impact of inflation, delaying the revenue, and impacting trades’ schedules, all of which reduce the ROI of the project. These are just some of the issues caused by delays.
- jaggederest 1y agoBut how often do those things actually happen, and is it a substantial enough difference to actually affect the cost of building housing at a fundamental level? Remember that houses have more than tripled in cost this century in most places. A few percent is not going to substantially affect something that has increased in price 340%.
- _alternator_ 1y agoThat’s only a 5% rate of return over the last 25 years, which is pretty lackluster. Won’t cover the interest rate on a loan today.
- jjcm 1y agoTo wargame the a rebuttal to this, the red tape might be circumvented just because there aren't rules to govern robotic work. You can fully agree to only use union labor, to only have humans working 8 hour days, or to only use certain contractors for hired work, simply because these systems aren't human operated (likely they will be early on, but you could spin it as this). There are laws for people, but not necessarily for tools.
- htrp 1y agothey will put the rules on place for automated tools very easily ( look at how every state is pulling together a patchwork of AI regulation)
- xyst 1y ago> a small cost seems to be the actual labor and materials Say less. HN used to be a message board to gain better knowledge around certain topics, but seems it more or less has the same armchair dilettantes that plague other platforms.
- kevinmpeterson 1y agoThere is red tape and certainly there are planning bottlenecks, but the GCs already deal with this. Once a project is funded and started, an established GC will move quickly to execute on projects. Also - some states (CA in particular) have an absurd amount of red tape. If you go to states like Texas, it's much easier. Robotic tools are pretty common already (machine guidance for bulldozers, remote ops for excavators, mine trucks), so there's good precedent. We view our machines as tools for people to use, and given the labor challenges, have a ton of customer interest as a result.
- dlcarrier 1y agoSomeone I know worked on the rad tape for the solar power plant in Ivanpah California, and he estimated that it added ten to 15 percent to the budget, not counting the added cost of the delays it causes.
- scrubs 1y agoWanna know what we need? MARPA: management and research process advancement. Yes or no: can the USA get a medium sized build done on time and budget comparable to the top 15% worldwide? There has to be way to kick this problem in the butt. And i think management side has gotta step up
- iwontberude 1y agoIt doesn't matter. The costs are fungible to the buyer, if the price is lower in any regard it becomes a better value.
- jdmena321 1y agoPolitics certainly adds layers of cost, but it doesn’t change the fact that budget overruns almost always stem from unpredictable, non‑political variables, sudden material price hikes, weather delays, labor shortages, or subcontractor disputes.
- PaywallBuster 1y agoThis would help mega projects in middle east all the labor is imported from abroad and live in miserable conditions, no unions or paperwork, just lots of earthworks to be done
- deleted 1y ago[deleted]
- yreg 1y ago> Hell these robots if they work will be made illlegal. Why are heavy machines like diggers and cranes legal then? Human operated, but replace countless workers on the site.
- gniv 1y agoTech startups have become giants by flaunting rules. This seems like an opportunity.
- itsoktocry 1y agoAnd yet, despite all of this, in most of my country (Canada) we have a construction labour shortage. Getting anything built is hard (and expensive).
- amadeuspagel 1y agoTech can help with the politics as well. More construction would happen if it was technologically possible for it to be so fast that major projects could be finished in a single election period.
- wpm 1y agoPre-fab is illegal in a lot of places too. Pre-fab is for the poors! Houses in this neighborhood must be assembled on site by lumber by a team of expensive humans from raw lumber, not at a factory churned out by the hundreds, shipped on site on a truck, and quickly put together. Like yeah, typical pre-fab, where it's legal, is going to go into a trailer park or something, but nothing says pre-fab has to be cheap and crummy. Why are we still cutting lumber on site?
- gosub100 1y agoThis is a bit like saying "if everyone was just honest and a good person, we wouldn't need police or jails or criminal judges". All these things exist for a reason (except for kickbacks). We have labor unions because of worker exploitation. We have zoning to protect personal freedoms of existing property owners. We have environmental impact studies because corporations have proven they are willing to freely dump toxic materials wherever they feel like.
- orochimaaru 1y agoYou must live in Chicago - lol.
- mattigames 1y agoIf you read the other comments made by this user they are exactly the political leaning you expect, including support for the BBB among other similar opinions.