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U.S. stock futures tumble indicating another plummet on Wall Street
- butterlettuce 2y agoI hope it corrects to 2018 levels. I missed out on all the action these past years
- Aurornis 2y agoNo, you don’t. The stock market isn’t something that happens in isolation. It’s going down because the economic future is looking very bad. So if it did crash to 2018 levels, you’d get some cheap stocks but the world would be on fire. The companies would be cheap because their future would be bleak. Under extreme tariff regimes, their competition would come from companies outside the country.
- pmags 2y agoThings look grim for the opening bell on Monday. As of 6:41pm EDT on Sunday: * S&P futures: -4.13% * NASDAQ futures: -4.89% * DOW futures: -3.72%
- smegger001 2y agowhat do you know raising prices on everything not wholly made in country from raw materials extracted in country overnight in a world with globe spanning complex supply lines breaks the economy
- newZWhoDis 2y ago[flagged]
- smegger001 2y ago>>breaks the economy >Good? Things were getting a little boring anyways. I would rather that checking my bank balance, 401k, and whether or not I can afford to buy food and make my mortgage payment not be "exciting" thank-you very much.
- agumonkey 2y agoI don't know how credible https://truflation.com/ https://truflation.com/ is, but they say inflation is at 1.22. Could this be spun as a victory to hide the crash ?
- SpicyLemonZest 2y agoIt's certainly possible that someone could spread fake metrics as a victory condition, but this site isn't credible. The "experienced team" they advertise includes not a single economist.
- agumonkey 2y agoOk thanks, it's often cited by youtubers and I have no idea how to vet it.
- mrguyorama 2y agoProbably don't watch economy or finance youtubers.
- agumonkey 2y agoyeah, but you need some information (and even outside youtube, it's hard to know who to trust)
- toomuchtodo 2y agoFirms’ Inflation Expectations Have Picked Up - https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2025/03/firms-inflation-expectations-have-picked-up/ https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2025/03/firms-... - March 5th, 2025
- tim333 2y agoAlso oil has dropped from $71 on Weds to $59 now suggesting the markets are expecting a bit of a global downturn. It hasn't been that low since the covid days.
- greycol 2y agoThat's more due to OPEC deciding to allow higher production quotas. Though you could argue that's because they expect a global downturn though it's not an independent view just the view of those countries.
- HDThoreaun 2y agoOPEC allows higher production quotas because they think the price will go down and they need to keep revenue constant-ish so their governments dont collapse.
- amazingamazing 2y ago[flagged]
- matwood 2y agoThe rich will be fine. This is what the start of a recession looks like.
- amazingamazing 2y agothe rich, e.g. top 10% are definitely more affected by stock prices than bottom 50%. if your goal is to punish rich people it would look pretty much like this. if you’re so confident there will be a recession let’s do 1000 to 1 odds for next 12 months. bitcoin. ya?
- 01100011 2y agoPer Gemini: In the United States, stock market wealth is highly concentrated, with the wealthiest 10% owning a record 93% of all stock market wealth, while the bottom 50% owns just 1%. OP isn't wrong.
- hobs 2y agoYes, they are - the "rich" will take a haircut and not care because they fundamentally own the economy itself. The "middle class" or what's left it (see techies and their RSUs) are the ones who actually care about the stock market in the short/medium term because all their money is tied up in it, and their lucky bets are all that stand between them and being working class. The working class has been screwed six ways to sunday, so they don't really care except insofar as it might mean we're doing stupid stuff like getting in more wars, or making it impossible to pay rent.
- eszed 2y agoYes. From that standpoint (which I want to persuade everyone to adopt), we're all "Working Class", and we need to stand together.
- TheAlchemist 2y agoThis is the week when "Tech and Finance bro" start turning against Trump, unless he does something quickly. Bessent, the only sane member of Trump's cabinet, sounded really worried and stressed last days. This kind of damage, cannot be undone just by saying 'Hey, it was art of the deal'. Confidence in US government is destroyed. Sure there will announcements about 100s or 1000s of Billions that will be invested, but it's just words. Just like DOGE saved how much already ? 1 Trillion $ ? And still not a single person was charged with fraud... S&P is down 2.5% on 1Y, and up 80% on 5Y, and valuations are at insane, Dot-com bubble levels. If he keeps the tariffs though, the damage can become much much more substantial that this relatively small decline in the markets. "When a clown moves into a palace, he doesn't become a king, the palace becomes a circus" Turkish Proverb.
- thfuran 2y ago>Confidence in US government is destroyed. That has long been a Republican goal. They want to tear it apart and sell the pieces.
- bamboozled 2y agoFor what gain ?
- pseudalopex 2y agoProfit opportunities for them and their supporters. Buying the pieces at discounted prices. Selling the public the services the government used to provide. Converting costs to externalities. And some believe axiomatically governments are inefficient and businesses are efficient.
- bamboozled 2y agoWell then they will live in a shittier place with (maybe) a little more money in the bank, which will likely be worth less than it was before the dismantling.
- 2y ago
- 01100011 2y agoYeah I bought at Friday's close. Sorry.
- arghandugh 2y agoThis is because a mad king and his enablers in technology are intentionally crashing the global economy so they can control the aftermath.
- zombiwoof 2y agoI’m convinced the same. Crash it all so the wealthy can buy it back cheaper Also because whatever Fox News says is truth to these people. They could tell people it’s raining on a sunny day and they will carry and umbrella and call people without one sheep
- TheAlchemist 2y agoWell, Fox News did show dolars raining on Trump on Friday, when arguing that tariffs are good. Yes, for real: https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3llzcxpmmgj2c https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3llzcxpmmgj2c
- seanmcdirmid 2y agoWSJ, also owned by Murdoch, is screaming bloody murder. One media for rich conservatives and one media for poorer conservatives, the goals of each are very different.
- bamboozled 2y agoYou have to believe there will be something left to own. This is going to get pretty ugly. I honestly think he is dumb and the people he has surrounded himself with are also dumb. It’s just hard to believe that someone this dumb is the POTUS so we have to make up conspiracy theories to reason with it.
- Buttons840 2y agoInsiders could be trading and making a lot of money on these snap decisions. Judge for yourself whether such a thing would happen. It would have been better if Trump gave advance notice before shaking everything up on a dime. I predict he'll reverse some terrifs without warning, thus creating another insider trade opportunity.
- inverted_flag 2y agoThe hand has made contact with the stove.
- neogodless 2y agoI think this implies learning. Maybe not? But just so I'm being clear, I do not believe certain parties will learn from this.
- Trasmatta 2y agoThe stove analogy is more about the US voting base learning a lesson
- sathackr 2y agoThere will be no lesson learned. It will be blamed on the other side and the story will be bought hook line and sinker
- Trasmatta 2y agoFor the main base of course, but there's a large block of swing voters and "undecideds" that went to Trump for whatever reason this election. It's more about them. And also the ones that just don't vote because they think it doesn't matter. MAGA represents a smaller proportion of eligible voters that cannot win elections without the broader support they somehow garnered.
- fuzzfactor 2y agoAlmost half the base made the fiscally prudent vote. I don't know what the bigger half is capable of learning, some of them probably learned a lot already if they are a shareholder of any kind, and it would not make very much sense for it to remain the bigger half by now. It really was the non-voters that consistently failed to send Trump and his people packing though. Sickening as it can be sometimes, hindsight is 20/20 and just a short number of weeks ago it would have made more sense for the shareholders of the USA to just cough the money up front and pay him $1Trillion to go away and never come back, taking his kind with him. Even worse, a year ago his price would have surely been lower, probably one of the biggest lost opportunities some of these shareholders will ever see.
- gdubs 2y agoI keep thinking about Tim Cook's words years back about manufacturing in China, and how there's a talent density there that just doesn't exist in the United States. That within a three block radius you can find people with deep knowledge and skillset in all areas of production. Just don't see how this materializes in any meaningful timeframe in the United States — if it's even doable at all. It also ignores the fact that since the 1970s the United States has transitioned more and more to information and services jobs. The only plausible way out I see in the near term is a bunch of carve outs and one-off deals that allows the U.S. government to say, "our bluff worked." But long term, automation is going to be taking more and more of these jobs and I just don't see how you justify sneakers costing what it will cost to pay American workers enough to prosper. Personally from an environmental standpoint I've questioned for a couple of decades now whether we can ever slow down and try and buy more sustainable goods even if they cost more. But this way of trying to get there feels like medieval medicine.
- RangerScience 2y agoThe speculation that I’ve seen is that the carve-outs will be used to reward loyalists and punish detractors. So yes, likely to happen.
- amazingamazing 2y agoAmerica’s consumer economy isn’t sustainable anyways. Once China figures out tech and India takes American services, America has nothing. These tariffs are stupid, but it’s either now or later. Better figure it out now, I suppose. people who think america will indefinitely have tech supremacy are unbelievably delusional. once tech is lost, america has what exactly (it’ll be like the UK - rich, but a shell of its former self)? look at SPY gains since year 2000. almost all of it has been due to tech. trump is one of the dumbest famous people of all time, but this was going to happen one way or another. better it happen sooner.
- analognoise 2y agoYou might not know this, but Americans aren’t big on “giving up”. Ever. We’re also not big on defeatism.
- kccoder 2y agoReally curious what everyone thinks fair correction is if the stay the course. 50% reduction?
- readthenotes1 2y agoThe average price to earnings ratio of the s&p 500 since 1990 is about 20. We are currently still above that.
- zozbot234 2y agoLook at volatility indicators perhaps? If they're unusually high, it suggests that further declines are very much possible if this policy change is not reversed.
- bamboozled 2y agoThat would admit being wrong and would be political suicide for these people. They’re going to go all the way.
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- wdpk 2y agoUnfortunately impossible to know because dependent on a bunch of factors that are outside rationality. If the tariffs are scaled back tomorrow, probably the damage would be pretty limited but it's not looking like anybody reasonable is around or in charge...
- smitty1e 2y agoEveryone's attention is drawn to a Tanvi Ratna thread on X => https://x.com/tanvi_ratna/status/1907880105369845865?s=19 https://x.com/tanvi_ratna/status/1907880105369845865?s=19 Whether or not these Big Brain ideas bear fruit remains to be seen.
- senderista 2y agoWhat a pathetic attempt at spinning manifestly stupid policy: > @elonmusk & @DOGE are cutting $4B per day. At that pace, they’d shave off $1 trillion by end of Sep 25 (if not May). Actual economists (of any political persuasion) are not giving Trump the benefit of the doubt, only grifters like this "thought leader".
- maxerickson 2y agoGives DOGE full credit for claimed savings. Quietly corrects an off by factor of 10 error on the savings from reduced yields at the end of the thread.
- KoolKat23 2y agoThe idea does not make sense. The consequences and cost of a "correction" would outweigh any interest savings from lowered interest rates due to the lack of demand and lack of inflation. Interest rates are percentages of the whole which would have to go down, the fed also doesn't willy nilly reduce rates, tariff led inflation despite shit conditions would mean they would hold off on decreasing rates.
- duxup 2y agoDODGE's claimed savings has been pretty questionable and it's not like the cost of debt has weighed on the US much at all.
- bearjaws 2y agoSane washing terrible decsions has become an expert craft on twitter
- acidmath 2y ago[dead]
- RockofStrength 2y agoIf nothing changes the market will drop 20% next week.
- wdpk 2y agoIt's scary that there seems to be no off ramp. The massive incompetence of the administration is absolutely appalling. Let suppose they decide to keep the tariffs until the actual lagged economic metrics are showing the stress on jobs and companies earnings. That means an absolutely insane amount of goods will go up in price between 10% and 50% in just a couple of weeks (depending how much the company margins are going to be absorbing the hike). The direct impact is probably a proportional amount of suppressed consumption so direct impact on the top line and bottom line of all those firms. This does not even account for all the effects of retaliation which are not yet decided. The markets were trading with lofty multipliers that were including quite a bit of revenue growth assumptions. All that is gone now! Without a quick change of course, the valuations will still have to go down a lot...
- belter 2y agoHedge Funds are panicking with the margin calls coming next week: "Bill Ackman warns Trump to call a timeout on trade war: ‘This is not what we voted for’" - https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5235232-ackman-warning-trump-tariffs/ https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5235232-ackman-w...
- amazingamazing 2y agoha - hope he gets wrecked. Trump has been painfully transparent about his love for tariffs.
- wdpk 2y agoWell yes, this is an idiosyncratic event, chances are that a bunch of hedge funds have no hedge against stupid! I'm actually more worried about the small businesses that say have a container full of whatever product somewhere in the middle of the Pacific that will have to pay the tariffs upfront out of pocket with a disappearing consumer on the other end of the pipe.
- lapcat 2y ago'I never thought leopards would eat MY face,' sobs man who voted for the Leopards Eating People's Faces Party.
- slicerdicer2 2y agoOne factor that the media has missed is that the "dork right" who support trump have the bitcoin put option. Elect trump -> his crazy ideas work -> stonks go up -> get rich Elect trump -> his crazy ideas destroy USA -> USD collapses -> BTC goes to infinity -> get rich
- astrange 2y agoBTC is a risk asset owned by US institutions, so that won't happen. It's basically another version of QQQ.
- slicerdicer2 2y agoQQQ hasn't gone up 1000000% in 15 years
- astrange 2y agoAny gain can be a 1000000% gain with enough leverage.
- wdpk 2y agoBTC/USD is down as we speak 6% around 78k... if anything the riskier the asset the more downside there is
- Tadpole9181 2y agoI don't follow. If the economy collapsed, nobody would want fake money you can't spend whose value relies on someone else with excess income. Gold is a significantly better, safer purchase.
- HDThoreaun 2y agoOr everyone moves to the euro/yuan and BTC is unchanged
- breatheoften 2y agoWhat i want to know is how long does it take for this kind of dip to show up in real estate prices -- there's a certain amount of loss in that sector (not all that large) before the downward trend in asset prices becomes self-accelerating -- unless banks and lenders put in policies to actively avoid putting out margin calls and the like
- duxup 2y agoI think for that to happen you need a lot of sellers. To get sellers ... I fear we're going to need to see a lot of layoffs first :(
- TaurenHunter 2y agoIf it dips too much that means interest rates will go lower, which will fuel another round of inflating real estate.
- bitmasher9 2y agoWouldn’t housing prices decrease be a major downward pressure on inflation?
- TaurenHunter 2y ago1/3 of the CPI is calculated using the rent variation smoothed in the last 6 months - which is not too elastic due to lease agreements. So it wouldn't be a major downward pressure.
- Aurornis 2y agoUncertainty has spiked. People refrain from making big decisions like moving in these conditions. People are hunkering down. Cutting spending, staying put, watching for their jobs. Moving is expensive so it’s likely to be delayed.
- robocat 2y agoreal estate prices hella depend on mortgage interest costs, because you bid based on what your can borrow. If consumers are less confident about borrowing large amounts, or if banks stop lending freely, then house prices will drop.
- Ancalagon 2y agoCertainly makes me want to give up participating in this stupid economy when one man his billionaire lackeys can crush years of hard work and savings. It’s really infuriating.
- Marsymars 2y agoHe probably hasn’t really done that. e.g. If you’ve saved $x/month and put it into SPY, I’m not sure you could pick any starting point where you now have years’ less wealth than if you’d put everything into short-term federal bonds (or even plain cash) instead of SPY.
- Ancalagon 2y agoThe returns from the S&P500 for cash invested a year ago are less than a high yield savings account.
- Marsymars 2y agoSure, but if you’ve only been investing your money for the past year, even a 100% drop in the S&P 500 only gives you a single year’s less wealth, not multiple years lost.
- ModernMech 2y agoThe person you responded to said “can crush” not “has crushed”, so your pedantic point isn’t warranted.
- fakedang 2y agoSomething I've realized over the course of the past few days is that the USA's biggest export is the US dollar. A medium of exchange that can be used as a proxy trade good between two unrelated countries, backed by the power of the US Government and the US Military. Look at any other industry, and save for a few like defence and information technology, most of USA's production exists to be served within the country itself, not to be exported. Most traditional manufacturing industries such as agricultural processing, food, automobiles, steel, shipbuilding, hardware, etc., all either serve solely the domestic market or have been outsourced away. Over the last few decades, the US has basically traded away its manufacturing capabilities and its economic independence, in favour of remaining top dog hegemon, while utilizing its network of allies and friendly countries to provide raw material for its industries and the USD-based markets to sell to. Obviously this system works very well for a country which has made working with allies a steady policy, but for a country now hell-bent on bashing its allies and any others friendly to trading with it, it can only spell a steady decline.
- senderista 2y agoThis could never happen in an actual parliamentary democracy. Too bad we don't live in one anymore.
- pseudalopex 2y ago> This could never happen in an actual parliamentary democracy. Why not?
- SpicyLemonZest 2y agoBecause the legislature would need to approve such a radical change, which they clearly wouldn't do.
- pseudalopex 2y agoThe legislature passed a law granting the leader of the executive branch emergency powers. The leader of the executive branch invoked the law for actions the legislature did not intend arguably. This happened in parliamentary democracies also.
- senderista 2y agoUnder the constitution, Trump doesn't have the power to unilaterally make trade policy (that is Congress's prerogative). He claims he does under a vaguely worded emergency powers law that clearly doesn't apply to current circumstances (we are not, or at least were not, in the sort of emergency contemplated by the law). (This goes to show that all such laws granting extraordinary powers to the executive during "emergencies" will eventually be abused by someone sufficiently unscrupulous.) In a "real" parliamentary system, Trump already would have gotten a no-confidence vote.
- pseudalopex 2y agoCongress could revoke Trump's emergency declarations at any time. A measure to do this for Canada passed the Senate by 1 vote only. The House will not vote on it probably. Members of the majority party are more afraid they will lose their next primary elections if they oppose the leader than they will lose their next general elections because of the leader's policies. Those are not conditions to pass a confidence motion.
- kittikitti 2y agoThis will be a bad week in general for Wall Street as the most significant tariffs hit on Wednesday. Because of the chaos or lack of organization from the White House, it will still fall afterwards because markets can't be certain what will happen. I have a price target for the S&P 500 that I would be very surprised if it stayed lower because the last time the markets were at the price point the economy was worse. All I want to say is there might be another 10% drop before it gets any better.
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- bananapub 2y agohopefully we eventually learn that we just can't afford the decadance of electing absolute fucking idiots to lead us. Britain definitely didn't learn that after Cameron and Johnson and Truss, and the US didn't after letting Trump fuck the place up the first time, but everyone else has to learn and learn quick.
- hayst4ck 2y agoI'm curious how people try to estimate where bottom is -- especially if it is a non dogmatic and non institutional analysis. There was an analysis a month ago where someone had the idea to look at total US energy consumption as a proxy variable for total economic productivity. To me that makes a lot of sense. Energy is the capacity for work. https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/us-energy-facts/ https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/us-energy-facts/ It appears we peaked in energy consumption in 2007 before the great recession at which point energy usage has been in slow decline. We decided that in response to the recession that the best way to handle it was to completely deregulate wall-street and tell them they are above the law because they are so big, that creating consequences for their actions that hurt Americans is too costly to do. They promised severe punishment for regulation, and reward for letting wall street continue to be consequence free. Citizens united was ruled on in 2010 to cement the authority of those with money over the US government in an act that should be considered a proper coup against the constitution, and was by some. If you take energy consumption as a proxy for real actual productivity, that implies a bottom of 22,000 for DOW (inflation adjusted value of dow ~2007), and that's not including damage done to ability to import or America not looking appealing for investment because we are almost certainly heading towards civil unrest and there is a very real threat of trade not being conducted in USD. It's easy to imagine a company that owns property, an asset that has no meaningful economic output, increasing in value which could be seen as economic growth, but is very much not that. I'd certainly love to hear why this is absolutely ignorant because I am not an economist, nor am I in finance.
- maxerickson 2y agoOne thing is that you ignore technology change. New technology may produce more with less energy. Using energy consumption as a momentum indicator still works when accounting for that, but it potentially breaks comparisons across longer spans of time.
- Aurornis 2y agoAnalyzing the fundamentals doesn’t matter much because this isn’t driven by fundamentals. This crash was caused by this administration demonstrating that not only do they have no understanding of economic policy, but they’re determined to make extreme and brash decisions. I don’t think many people expect the current tariff absurdity to hold as-is. The problem is that nobody knows if he’s going to wake up and roll it back one day or if he’ll decide to make the tariffs higher to try to prove a point. Or he could launch a real war as a distraction. It wasn’t a secret that Trump didn’t understand economic policy, but the assumption was that he wasn’t going to actually do anything different than his first term. Instead he came out with the most unbelievably bad tariff gambit beyond what anyone could have imagined, and now everyone is resetting assumptions.
- almog 2y agoTrump can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent or something like that
- bhaak 2y agoHow long until the Americans are trying to get rid of their king if he keeps up with this irrational behavior? Last time he was on the other side of the Atlantic. It must be easier if he’s on the same continent, right?
- megamike 2y agotariffs? its hard! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uhiCFdWeQfA&t=57s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uhiCFdWeQfA&t=57s
- MilnerRoute 2y agoI assume things will change dramatically in the next few days. Trump's "emergency powers" to declare tariffs are already being challenged in court. And there's also growing support in the Senate and House to change tariff policy too. (So if the stock market keeps dropping, I just don't see Congress refusing to act.) Plus, I just assumed the whole "liberation day" was Trump's way of striking an aggressive pose as a starting point, hoping subsequent negotiations would then end up someplace more advantageous. (Maybe the "tell" there is the way the White House keeps saying "There will be no negotiations." Because their current position is so wildly untenable -- it has to be a pose.)
- runnr_az 2y agoApparently we’re at war with Lesotho?
- sega_sai 2y agoAsian markets already falling by 5-10%. I don't think it will get better as it propagates to Europe and USA. The Liz Truss moment truly arrived to the USA and the world. We'll see what happen s when an idiot gets to rule a big country like a king.
- guybedo 2y agofwiw a well thought criticisim of the chaotic move by the US: https://x.com/StockSavvyShay/status/1908506134270665110 https://x.com/StockSavvyShay/status/1908506134270665110
- xracy 2y agoFeels like one of the better possible outcomes from this is that Congress realizes it has actual powers and starts using them. But I'm predicting things are going to have to get bad before people wake up to this problem. I think if this continues the most likely thing is that the US Dollar will soon no longer be the world's reserve country. I'm surprised other countries haven't hedged this way already given what happened the last time this administration was in charge, but I would sure be looking for a way out of the US dollar if I was a non-US-country right now. If the tariffs hold, I would be looking to cut out US-dollars from my transactions as quickly and aggressively as possible. Feels like a couple of cinder-blocks attached to my parachute at the moment, I might not know how to untangle them, but surely it can't be worse than the state I'm in right now. In the US, I shudder to think what would happen if the economy got this derailed, and everyone's doing everything they can to untangle from it. I would kind of expect China or Europe's stable economies to be a sudden draw that the rest of the world adjust to. And I would be starting to look at what things I can get from the rest of the world as an alternative to the US. When I voted against this outcome I knew that I voted against the rest of the policy changes from this regime (Encroachment on 1st amendment, General Oligarchy, etc.), but I didn't know I was also voting against a pseudo-scorched-earth economic policy intended to destroy the US. There are real ways in which I hope they are too stupid to know what they're doing because they're digging their own grave. I just also fear the number of people who are going to be in that grave with them.
- Overtonwindow 2y agoI think will be OK unless it starts getting down to where it was from 2020-2023.
- RickJWagner 2y agoThe Shiller ratio is still terribly high. There is room for a great deal more decline.