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Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked
- toomuchtodo 2y agoHistorical event. It’s all downhill from here. Related: Tracking global data on electric vehicles - https://ourworldindata.org/electric-car-sales https://ourworldindata.org/electric-car-sales
- bigyabai 2y agoNonsense, China's future is looking brighter by the day!
- toomuchtodo 2y agoBut I repeat myself, apologies to Twain Downhill = good, momentum is unstoppable, nothing stops the electrification transition, we’re simply arguing time horizon now; China will be the clean energy and mobility manufacturer to the world. (50% of car sales in China in 2024 were battery electric or plug in hybrid)
- cute_boi 2y agoIf US allows these cheap electric cars for at least 2-3 years, I would say it would be great for everybody except car companies and Elon.
- toomuchtodo 2y agoUnfortunately, the US would rather subject its consumers to legacy auto and Tesla prices and lack of competition vs enabling imports to drive down domestic prices to improve affordability. Poor policy is unfortunate.
- sdenton4 2y agoAnd with the rest of the world covering to electric, we can expect negative economies of scale alongside the financial problems of economic contraction for combustion car makers. The coal companies started going bankrupt long before the end of coal. (hell it's still not over...) Simply because investors could see that it's a shrinking industry, making it impossible to get financing for new plants, mines, etc.
- know-how 2y ago[dead]
- myroon5 2y agoDid you figure out importing BYD vehicles? https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39992428 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39992428
- toomuchtodo 2y agoI terminated my in process application to import the vehicle from my property outside of the US for two reasons: I no longer intend to maintain majority residency in the US for the foreseeable future (obvious reasons), and the US government is effectively banning Chinese EVs in the US [1]. Was fun to make the attempt, but sometimes city hall wins. It turns out it is easier to expat than to import a Chinese car. [1] https://www.edmunds.com/car-news/biden-administration-effectively-bans-chinese-evs.html https://www.edmunds.com/car-news/biden-administration-effect...
- potato3732842 2y ago> I no longer intend to maintain majority residency in the US for the foreseeable future I suddenly just became a proponent of in-person voting.
- toomuchtodo 2y ago
- hilsdev 2y agoUAW and their >500k members might disagree
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- jppope 2y agoI feel most people still don't realize that China is facing a demographic crisis. If their demographics matched the United States sure, but its unlikely china will be leading many of these future technological situations. Don't take me the wrong way, they have a great opportunity in front of them but just the resources required to take care of their elderly is going to suck up a pretty hefty amount of resources.
- toomuchtodo 2y agoMore industrial robots are built and sold in China than anywhere else in the world. This is an intentional choice, the government knows their working age population is shrinking. They will race to automation before their demographic dividend is finished paying out. To note, the US has no robotics foundries, and already is experiencing labor shortages today. https://itif.org/publications/2024/03/11/how-innovative-is-china-in-the-robotics-industry/ https://itif.org/publications/2024/03/11/how-innovative-is-c...
- varelse 2y ago[dead]
- ben_w 2y agoChina is also authoritarian, has central planning, and deliberately had a one-child policy for a while to prevent the opposite problem. I'm not saying this would be a pleasant or fun experience for those involved, but I am saying I wouldn't bet against China even on demographics.
- Fricken 2y agoThe whole developed world is facing a demographic crisis. The US brith rate is expected to fall below replacement levels in 2033. https://apnews.com/article/population-projections-congressional-budget-office-946a81a89908c44bb6b7df1ad8b5d57c https://apnews.com/article/population-projections-congressio...
- ddxv 2y agoGreat data, I wish it was updated for 2024. I think that article will come soon given that current data was from February of 2024 (for 2023 data).
- tpm 2y agoI follow this. Might not be entirely correct for some countries but is as up to date as possible: https://robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/ https://robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/
- afdslfslkfdsk 2y ago[flagged]
- pengaru 2y agoWhat's strange to me is according to the graph it's not just combustion engine cars that peaked, cars overall more or less did too, in the graph. Are trucks like the F150 not being captured by this data? How literal is "cars"?
- suraci 2y agoThis is exactly the problem. It's a game in the existing market without any additional growth. it's not strange, jeff bezos can buy dozens of yachts, but most people will only buy 1 car for several years
- umeshunni 2y agoThat doesn't make any sense. There are 10s of millions of newly middle class consumers in Asia.
- troymc 2y agoMaybe that's true, but maybe the average cost of a new car in Asia is quite a bit lower, so the overall effect is still declining total overall sales (measured in USD)? Here's a fascinating video about a city in China that's full of cute electric cars that cost less than $5000 USD each: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AomxytSwrkY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AomxytSwrkY
- troymc 2y agoI looked around some more and it seems that it is, in fact, the total number of units sold that peaked, not the total dollars of sales. I found a good video that outlines all the reasons: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xsXxfx_UsVI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xsXxfx_UsVI
- suraci 2y agothat's another problem - inequality in the global value chain, China is the most important growth market for passenger vehicles for last 20+ years, this is because of China's continuous industrial upgrading, which has gradually shifted from manufacturing low value-added products (such as jeans) to producing high value-added products (such as passenger vehicles). this brings '10s of millions of newly middle class consumers', same thing happened in Japan/Korea/Taiwan too but now, china produced 30 million cars (12m evs) in 2024, which means China's passenger vehicle market will quickly approach saturation, even if all Chinese families purchase or replace new vehicles btw, '10s of millions newly consumers' is a relatively small number and there will be no other markets with '10s of millions of newly middle class consumers' unless other countries can accompolish industrial upgrading like China's did and if these countries(India/indonesia/Vietnam) manage to do so, their industrial upgrading will intensify this competition just like what happened in China now
- skeeter2020 2y agoIf this graph is the evidence for "Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked" isn't it also the evidence proving "global car sales have peaked"?
- recursive 2y agoMaybe, but not as strong. Combustion is down or flat every year since '16. Aggregate numbers haven't regained their peak, but are up and down.
- mlyle 2y agoMaybe. Less clear evidence of that. Total cars down by 5-6%, and lower than 6 of the previous 13 years. Combustion cars down by 24%, and lower than 12 of the previous 13 years.
- jmclnx 2y agoIt does not get into the "why", but I realize that is hard to determine. My question is, are these sales for brand new cars or does it include used cars also ? I know my days of buying brand new ended years ago due to how expensive new cars are. My current car (bought used) is from 2007 and if I have to buy another, it will be used. So I have to wonder, are people avoiding buying new due to the expense. That could point to a reason. Would be interesting to see charts based upon Country or group of countries.
- chgs 2y agoEvery used car was a new car at one point Every scrapped car is a used car
- km144 2y agoI think the point about used cars would have to imply that newer used cars are more reliable than older used cars, which would cause the supply of cars in the market to saturate more quickly, thus causing less demand for new cars. Not sure if that's true but it seems reasonable.
- b112 2y ago
- greenheadedduck 2y ago[flagged]
- umeshunni 2y agoWhy?
- readthenotes1 2y agoFrom the source, which more clearly states "we're biased", the massive change is because of EV cars in China. https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2024/executive-summary https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2024/executive...
- janalsncm 2y agoThis is great news. Of course new car purchases are a leading indicator of the overall makeup of cars. And people might be buying fewer cars if their old ones last longer.
- xnx 2y agoEven in cities that are pretty hostile to bikes, electric bikes/scooters are an amazing middle point between walking and all the expense of a car (purchase, loans, fuel, maintenance, insurance, registration, tickets, etc.).
- idontwantthis 2y agoI want an electric bike but I want to go places with it and I’m worried about it getting stolen when I lock it up outside a shop. Do you have one?
- j-bos 2y agoI'm lookimg at a folding e scooter
- dmoy 2y agoI wish they were half as heavy with 1/4 the range. Lightest ones are still like 10kg+?
- Toutouxc 2y agoYes, but 10-15 kg is still comparable to a regular bike or a heavy bag of groceries. I rode a 19 kg one (50 km range, street legal), carrying it up to the third floor at work wasn't a problem.
- dmoy 2y agoTrue if it's just point to point commuting to a place with safe storage. But then I can't take it by strapping it on my backpack and going to shops, etc where a bike would get stolen.
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- j7ake 2y ago
- diego_moita 2y agoI have an EV (Kia Niro EV 2024). I don't want ever to go back to gas. Reasons: * the driving experience is just much, much better: punch & acceleration, stability, quietness, etc. * if you charge at home it is a lot cheaper than gas * it is so easy to "fuel": you plug it in when you arrive home and unplug the next morning Edit: also, after I installed solar cells at home, I drive almost for free!
- aprilthird2021 2y agoAlso, if you get into an EV now, before everyone else does, you can still enjoy a cheap fueling experience for a little while longer
- cmrdporcupine 2y agoI can't see how they can make at home charging more expensive without making all other electricity uses expensive and that will have severe backlash. On the go DC fast charging is already not cheap. It costs as much or more than gas.
- SoftTalker 2y agoThey can mandate separate metering for the charging circuit and tax it to make u p for the lost gasoline taxes.
- whateveracct 2y agothose gasoline taxes currently pay for roads. and EVs put more strain on roads due to their increased weight.
- gfarah 2y agoICE vs EV difference is negligible compared to 18 wheelers and alike on road strain.
- davidblue 2y agoCan I just ask - forgive the potential ignorance - if EVs have been proven to be less net carbon emitting with their manufacturing and expected disposal emissions factored in?
- DevelopingElk 2y agoYes. The break even is at around 15,000 to 20,000 miles driven for replacing an ICE. This obviously varies depending on electricity source.
- tomgp 2y agoEven that's a pretty conservative estimate these days. It's typically less, ~11,000m (18,000km) and the balance keeps shifting in EVs favour over time as the grid becomes more renewables based... https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-21-misleading-myths-about-electric-vehicles/#1 https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-21-misleading-myths-ab...
- ntSean 2y agoEVs have an initial higher carbon footprint after production than ICE vehicles due to their battery. However, the initial CO2 footprint is dwarfed when compared to the operational footprint of ICE vehicles. Takes a few years for the scale to tip in EVs favour, to which then there's a substantial difference. > BNEF studied the US, Chinese, Germany, UK and Japanese markets. It determined the lifecycle CO2 emissions of a medium-size BEV manufactured in 2023 and driven for 250,000km would be 27-71 per cent lower than those of equivalent ICE vehicles.
- danny_codes 2y agoAnother important factor is that emissions are highly dependent on what you're burning to power the grid. As electrification intensifies those effects become even more pronounced. In 15 years or so I imagine most countries with sane leadership will be mostly running on renewables & nuclear.
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- Deprogrammer9 2y agoThis things is amazing. https://www.bmwmotorcycles.com/en/models/urban_mobility/ce04.html https://www.bmwmotorcycles.com/en/models/urban_mobility/ce04...
- defrost 2y agoShows promise, yes. Looks good for belting about a city on, where I am (rural Australian town) I'm happy with walking or a scooter for local travel .. an 80 mile range just gets me to the nearest town and back with little reserve. A 150 mile range would be better .. that'll come I guess. FWiW I rode the BMW R650 (light road bike) for a decade and had a GS 1250 with long range tanks for road|off road trips.
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- SoftTalker 2y ago$12K for a very limited use vehicle that has an 80 mile range. Good luck with that.
- hedora 2y agoIts zero-sixty time is 2.6 seconds. That ties the fastest thing here: https://www.zeroto60times.com/body-style/motorcycle/fast-slow-0-60/ https://www.zeroto60times.com/body-style/motorcycle/fast-slo...? Which has an MSRP of $20K. I suspect the BMW will sell extremely well.
- ohnoitsahuman 2y agoThe BMW links says zero to 30 mph in 2.6 Not bad but it's not zero to 60 mph in 2.6
- orbital-decay 2y agoIt looks huge! How the hell do you commute on that thing? Can't imagine lane filtering on it. Edit: 855mm wide, 1675mm wheelbase, weighs like a 1000cc adventure bike (clearly bottom-heavy, though). That's one Goldwing of a scooter.
- brickfaced 2y agoSeems unlikely that we'll ever totally move away from combustion engines, simply due to sunk costs plus the advantages of energy density and quick refilling. I expect we'll see net-zero carbon emission gasoline and other hydrocarbons sold at the pump within the next few decades, produced with either solar or nuclear energy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fischer%E2%80%93Tropsch_process https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fischer%E2%80%93Tropsch_proces... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G8zOHZINyG8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G8zOHZINyG8 Compressed natural gas (methane) is even easier to synthesize from the raw ingredients than gasoline or diesel fuels. It's used today in many city buses, fleet vehicles, and private cars in certain parts of the world: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sabatier_reaction https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sabatier_reaction Such fuels could become less attractive if we invent lighter, cheaper, and much faster-charging batteries than the current state of the art, but I'm not holding my breath.
- pjc50 2y agoCNG/LNG have been around for a while and are yesterday's future. Synthetic zero carbon fuel simply loses too much in conversion to be economic, compared to direct EV. I think China is in the process of demonstrating what the transition looks like. There will probably be a rump of difficult to convert use cases and long lives specialty vehicles. I imagine tractors will be the last holdout. And military uses.
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- xeonmc 2y agoI will never buy an EV, not because of its powertrain but because there is no way to avoid their spyware. Granted, the same goes for modern gas cars, which is also why I stick to secondhand but premium pre-infotainment cars
- Mashimo 2y agoCould you unplug the sim and keep driving?
- esel2k 2y agoI am also very hesitant on buying an EV. Next to spyware - which is also a problem on my phone, I struggle more with the problem of having a built-in obsolescence. Any device with a dependence on an App, iOS is sooner or later going to force you to buy something new. I love working and riding 20-30year old bicycles, sailboats, or even an old Toyota Jeep. Less dependency on software compatibility.
- h0l0cube 2y agoFrom what I've read, telemetry is typically opt-in on both EVs and gas. It's tactile mechanical controls that are more important to me. I'm even considering just doing a custom conversion on mine, just as soon as solid-state batteries show up to make the battery life (and hopefully charging time) worth it for heavier vehicles. Any time now...
- woodpanel 2y agoHow long, until it becomes illegal to come up with these feel-good mood-affiliation "reports" that paint Plug-In Hybrids (i.e. combustion-engines equipped with a supportive battery) as Electric Vehicles?
- rsynnott 2y agoMany of those plugins will almost never use their combustion engine. Particularly in western Europe where most of these are selling, the average person doesn’t drive far enough per day to exhaust the battery. So it’s not just feel-good, it’s a real impact. That said, I don’t think that’s what this report is doing?
- rcMgD2BwE72F 2y agoThis contradicts your assertion: https://www.transportenvironment.org/articles/plug-hybrids-new-emissions-scandal-tests-show-higher-pollution-claimed https://www.transportenvironment.org/articles/plug-hybrids-n...
- rsynnott 2y agoThose are massive SUV-type things with apparently rather weak engines (ie almost light hybrids, but with a plug); the typical plugin hybrid is a fair bit smaller. And has a bigger battery; the Mitsubishi Outlander mentioned had a 12kWh battery, vs, say, a plug-in Prius, a much smaller car with a 14kWh battery, Many plugin hybrids only need to use their petrol engine when they actually run out of power. I would wonder if whoever came up with the above study was deliberately looking for a worst case scenario, tbh; they didn't include any small/normal-sized cars at all (everything they mention is over two tonnes), even though the _average_/most typical plugin hybrid car is probably some sort of smallish hatchback. (Even then, though, I'm curious what conditions they're testing under. I know someone who has a BMW 5-series plugin hybrid saloon, which is a close relative of the X5 mentioned, albeit a bit lighter and more aerodynamic, and it operates pretty much entirely on battery when charged.)
- itishappy 2y ago
- p0w3n3d 2y agoIn my city you cannot charge your car inside the underground garage. No one will build the required facility to ease electric car fire extinguishing. Therefore the buildings will default to deny.
- eftpotrm 2y agoThat's incredibly short-sighted, not least because the number of fires per vehicle is orders of magnitude higher for combustion vehicles. I'd be astonished if that made actuarial sense if actually investigated. I've seen and used underground car chargers in multiple European cities. They're definitely viable.
- toss1 2y agoYes, except ICE fires are a lot easier to put out (possibly partly because of long experience developing tools & techniques vs for electric fires). Electric cars were also banned at most racetracks for years (not sure if that is still true).
- eftpotrm 2y agoI'm a software engineer not a firefighter, but my understanding is that it's significantly an experience thing. Lithium battery fires clearly aren't trivial to deal with and do burn hotter than petroleum fires, but they're also very much less frequent and firefighters are learning how to handle them. I'm not sure what the specific issue would be with race tracks. The average road course is very open and a very controlled environment; if you had to deal with a car fire, it's probably among the best places to do so, thanks to lessons learned in the blood of previous generations of drivers and track workers.
- toss1 2y agoYup, I think experience and new tools & techniques will have battery fires as controllable as gasoline fires relatively soon. I'm pretty sure the racetrack issue was related to the garages. The pretty much standard rule I've seen at all racetracks I've been to is and absolute "NO FUELING IN THE GARAGE" as in if they even catch you with an open fuel can in the garage you are immediately banned from the premises. They're obviously trying to minimize the risk of one of their building burning down, especially since once a fire started in one team's bay, it would be likely to spread to adjacent bays. I expect they just consider electric fires to start in broader circumstances. Also, I think it might be relaxing the rules some, as I just checked and at least SCCA is now working on rules for electric cars on road tracks, which presumably means some tracks are more open to it.
- dackdel 2y agoIll probably buy a petrol car for my lifetime. As long as there is a petrol station to fill her up.
- conductr 2y agoI really wish something like the lit motors c1/aev would hit the market. But it’s been in development for over a decade I believe https://www.litmotors.com/preorder-aev https://www.litmotors.com/preorder-aev
- paganel 2y agoIt's all because of the crazy regulations and insane taxes that normal people have to pay in order to own a car, and not a refrigerator on wheels, that's the gist of it. Basically the laptop classes (all actual or wannabe EV-owners) have started revolting against the fact that they have to inhale cancer-igneous fumes on their way to their yoga classes, and this is the result of that.
- bArray 2y agoI think that combustion engines will make a come back, and we're at a false peak. I believe that due to a poor economic outlook, we see more people purchasing from the used-car market than new vehicles. I personally have seen a recent boom in the UK for road-worthy vehicles under £5k. On the other hand, I have seen used EVs completely unsellable, to the point where forecourts refuse to accept them as part-exchange. If you see the breakdown graph [1], the likes of Norway is about to peak at 100%. The UK, US and EU are already becoming saturated, and China have saturated their internal markets and now face export tariffs to other significant markets to prevent dumping. The largest driving forces for this trend are essentially saturated. Just in the EU for example we see that energy prices continue to increase per kWh [2], further reducing the "low cost benefit" of electricity that EVs previously enjoyed. We also see governments beginning to realise that they miss out on vehicle tax for EVs due to incentives, and such benefits begin to be withheld [3]. As the global economy continues to slow, I expect to see EVs and any green agenda items decrease in popularity, and a return to combustion engines and other policies with higher economic growth. [1] https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/electric-car-sales-share https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/electric-car-sales-share [2] https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Electricity_price_statistics https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php... [3] https://www.gov.uk/guidance/vehicle-tax-for-electric-and-low-emissions-vehicles https://www.gov.uk/guidance/vehicle-tax-for-electric-and-low...
- hristov 2y agoIt is very strange to see a grayed out comment on top of a thread that has about 160 non-grayed out comments. I thought that highest rated comments go to the top and grayed out comments are rated below zero. Regarding your points. First the thing about used evs not selling has more to do with the rapid pace of innovation of evs rather than lack of demand. In the 90s it was very difficult to sell a used PC because PCs improved so quickly. That did not mean that PCs were not doing well, in fact PC sales were growing exponentially. And evs do improve fast. Your second point is silly. Basically you are saying that EVs are doomed because EVs are already selling too much. Thats like the old joke that nobody goes to this restaurant anymore because it is too crowded. Your third point is about rising electricity costs. That sucks for sure, but electricity costs tend to rise together with gasoline costs. It will be very difficult for those two to diverge so that a gas car all of a sudden becomes more economical. The fact that one can make electricity out of oil and oil products tends to mean that electricity costs will not rise very much in comparison to gasoline costs in a short period of time.
- metalman 2y ago"ice car engines peaked?" likely wrong there is no charging infrastructur, and no way to retrofit into housing on a mass scale that will deal with the threat of a whole apartment building parking garage going up in flames, resulting in mass casualties. So until there are non flamable solid state batteries at the right price point, electrificationof the transport grid will stall, while demand for mobility will continue to increase, and ICE cars may very well keep or gain market share still.
- itishappy 2y ago> a whole apartment building parking garage going up in flames, resulting in mass casualties Good thing ICE vehicles don't use any explosive components. Any evidence of these "mass casualty" events?
- metalman 2y agono argument, let me expand slightly. gasoline is exceptionaly flamable, but (and crusialy) is known, and almost never self ignites. the "electrolight" in lithium batteries is in fact a liquid hydrocarbon that would run an ICE engine. this fact coupled with the very real issue of lithium batteries, self shorting, and then experiencing thermal runaway, causing the exceptionaly flamable electrolight to burn in.an inextinguasishable, and re igniting fashion, is new. And new is hard to evaluate, as building code,insurance, product standard, and end user perspective. Insurers will just balk, and say no, building and fire code people are trepedatios. We need true solid state, non flamible batteries, and THEN, we can just get on.with a general electrification of everything........but should there be a "HINDENBURG" level event.....then watch out for extream push back, is what I am getting at!
- piterrro 2y agoThis title is a clickbait since the sales peaked... In 2018? Since then it lowered consecutively
- xnorswap 2y agoWhat you've said is a re-statement of the title, how is it clickbait?
- ZeroGravitas 2y agoThe "electric" share here includes plug-in hybrids which, if we're nitpicking, have an internal combustion engine. Doesn't affect the overall conclusion as even if they were all hybrids the number of cars with internal combustion would still be lower. I'm very, very bullish on EVs, they're going to take over the world rapidly but this graph isn't great support as you can't see the exponential rise very well and it's swamped by other data inluences.
- Hamuko 2y agoThe conclusion seems pretty shoddy as well, since it relies on a few years worth of data to indicate a permanent shift in purchasing habits, and those years include a global pandemic, supply chain shortages and high inflation/interest. Really the only conclusion I would make is that combustion-only has peaked, and that much is very clear if you go and shop for a new car. Everything is being hybridised.
- paulryanrogers 2y agoHaving just bought a hybrid minivan, there are few choices and high demand but low supply. ICE only vehicles are in ready supply at all our local dealerships.
- hnaccount_rng 2y agoI'm inclined to agree with the conclusion from _this_ data being a tad too early. But, if one digs a bit into the data then one finds that EV sales in nearly all countries had double digit increases. The two major exceptions are Germany and Italy. But on the other hand the Chinese market both grew substantially and there it is more or less a policy goal to boost local manufactures and those are ~all electric. And if China is not going back to gas-powered cars then the conclusion is a pretty safe bet, isn't it?
- Cthulhu_ 2y agoThat chart used is very low information dense, reducing cars to "electric" and "non-electric", but that's an oversimplification. There's hybrids and plug-in hybrids like you said, hydrogen, pressured air (ok that one never took off), and of course different types of fuel like petrol, diesel and LPG.
- divan 2y agoModerators should fix the title and add "in 2018" to the end, as it's on the chart itself. Omitting "in 2018" part changes message completely and is misleading.
- triceratops 2y agoIt would be misleading if sales peaked in 2018, then fell, and have subsequently surpassed the 2018 peak. That's not what happened though. And reporting "sales have peaked" 6 years after the peak is reasonable - doing so 2 years after the peak would be premature. I still support adding it to the title, because it's even more impressive.
- mortenjorck 2y agoThe timeframe is even more important due to the macro environment of the past six years - one might have credibly suggested 2019 was a fluke and that 2020-2021 was obviously a major outlier on many fronts, but the trend keeps going into the latest years they have data for, which combined with the increase in EV sales makes 2018 as Peak Internal Combustion pretty much irrefutable from the vantage point of early 2025.
- tempfile 2y agoHow is it misleading? It would be impossible for someone to credibly claim something peaked in 2024, for example. So it must be some time in the past (and 2018 is not very long ago).
- tmn 2y agoIt just reads as present tense. Your point is valid. However, there are going to be how many eye balls that don’t read past the headline and don’t think deeply on it, but now have the impressions that they are currently at a peak
- kubanczyk 2y ago"have already peaked"
- deleted 2y ago
- nottorp 2y ago... but they peaked because cars and fuel have got more expensive, not because everyone is rushing to buy an even more expensive EV.
- xyst 2y agoOptimistically, the increase of EV sales is good for decreasing overall tail pipe emissions. But I still see the EV as saving the car industry rather than saving the world/environment. Reducing tail pipe emissions is great, but if it means increased tire wear particles, brake dust, increased wear on road infrastructure and increased demand on lithium supplies. Are we really better off than before? I would like to see a future where the private vehicle is _optional_ and public transportation is a viable option. A future where our cities and towns are not built around private vehicles (ie, expensive roads, parking garages, street parking, massive highways, infrastructure maintenance). That’s a much better goal to achieve than pushing EVs or self driving cars.
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- mmaunder 2y agoFederal EV tax credits saved buyers about $1 billion in 2024. Also huge tax credits, tax rebates and tax exemptions. Also subsidized EV charging stations. In the U.S., states have awarded massive economic development packages to EV and battery factories. Georgia, for instance, gave $1.5 billion to Rivian and $1.8 billion to Hyundai for EV plants. Nationwide, over $13.8 billion has been committed to at least 51 such projects, often funded partly by federal pandemic relief funds like the American Rescue Plan Act. So the landscape has profoundly changed and it’ll be interesting to see what this does to growth.