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A couple of theories: - person clearly had meticulously planned the execution of the hit and exfiltration. Even leaving red herrings on his way out of the city
by xyst 2y ago
A couple of theories:
- person clearly had meticulously planned the execution of the hit and exfiltration. Even leaving red herrings on his way out of the city (backpack full of Monopoly money). Yet clumsily keeps _all_ of the evidence that would implicate himself in this murder. Not to mention he is wandering about in public while a multi-state manhunt is underway with the full weight of alphabet soup agencies, and state and local LEOs? To me, this suggests it was part of his plan to get caught. There was no escape to a non-extradition country. The “shaking” mentioned while talking with police could just be a massive surge of adrenaline as he sees his plan unfold before his eyes. Then use the live streamed and televised court to spread his message. Then live out the rest of his life as a political figure as the media continue to analyze this persons life and motivations. Just like Ted.
- Or the internet, media really over-estimated this persons competence. It was really just dumb luck that he even escaped NYC. At that point, he was just improvising after leaving NYC. His arrogance to keep the evidence as some sick mementos or trophies ultimately did him in. Likely try to plead insanity with the manifesto. Probably fail to do so, then eventually get convicted on all charges and end up in a supermax penitentiary for life.
- bbqfog 2y agoThe most likely scenario is that he was planning on not getting caught, saw the massive amount of support he had, then decided to attach his name to his actions.
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- FactKnower69 2y ago[flagged]
- Cumpiler69 2y agoWhat do you mean? How is that boomer speak?
- SuperNinKenDo 2y agoCumpiler69 doubting FactKnower69 knowing his facts. What is the world coming to.
- jjallen 2y agoIf you wanted to get caught then why not just stay at the crime scene or surrender a few days later? But maybe he knew it was inevitable so he spent his last few days living life normally.
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- 4gotunameagain 2y agoMaybe to create clout ? (assuming he really intended to get caught eventually) Reportedly he is smart, so he probably knows the value of a good mystery.
- mdanger007 2y agoWe amateur criminologist assume intent in every clue. But Luigi, just like Roskalnikov, probably was a mixture of guilt, incompetence, and mental breakdown, as the reality of his situation and its hopelessness took over his thoughts.
- karmakurtisaani 2y agoAnyone speculating too far should think how well they would sleep after shooting someone on the street and fleeing the biggest manhunt in recent history. Then ask themselves what kind of decisions they could make after 2 days of no sleep and immense stress. People watch too many movies.
- rob74 2y agoI imagine a person who stays at the crime scene after shooting someone several times is in much higher danger of being shot himself than if he flees and is captured later.
- ithkuil 2y agoAnother option is to flee and shortly after turn yourself in into a police station unarmed
- lm28469 2y agoIt wouldn't be the first time the police/three letters agencies lie about how they identified/located a suspect to not leak potentially illegal surveillance processes
- patrickk 2y agohttps://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parallel_construction https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parallel_construction
- lazystar 2y agoand its looking like they jumped the gun on brian kohberger. they keep delaying the trial; i would not be surprised if he goes free.
- __alexs 2y agoAgree but doesn't explain why he would be carrying so much incriminating stuff around with him.
- Cumpiler69 2y agoMaybe because he wanted to get caught? Or at least expected it and knew there was no way he'd get away with it.
- throw_a_grenade 2y ago[flagged]
- lukan 2y ago"it's equally possible that he didn't have this stuff on him, but it was planted by the police themselves." That would mean, there is a 50% chance that in general all the evidence has a 50% chance of being fake. And this is likely a bit of a exxageration.
- 2y ago
- likeabatterycar 2y agoEducated people tend to overestimate their abilities outside their domain. We've all known someone with an "I can do anything" complex. Anyone can do anything... poorly. He likely deluded himself into believing he already outsmarted the cops so why even bother. Having two degrees doesn't make one a competent plumber, electrician, or in this case, criminal.
- Cumpiler69 2y ago>Educated people tend to overestimate their abilities outside their domain. This. And HN is the perfect example to observe this phenomenon. I lost track how many highly confident but incorrect takes I read here on semiconductor topics from people who assumed they know everything about any tech topic because they earn sich figures from writing crud web software.
- smgit 2y agoGo one step further. Why does that happen?
- laidoffamazon 2y agoIvy Leaguers are trained, often from birth, that they are better than the rest of us plebs because of their “merit” and represent a superhuman caste. This guy was most likely the same way. If you’re told that you’re a superhuman, then why not think you can get away with it?
- hnbad 2y agoOh, it's not just Ivy League although of course that usually comes with a background of privilege and prestige that further compounds on this tendency. STEM people in general heavily demonstrate this tendency. MBA types too, although they tend to think the solution always comes down to treating everything as a business or privatization.
- 2y ago
- russellbeattie 2y agoIt never made sense to me why he was wandering around the city in the same exact clothes he used during the murder. If he had simply worn another jacket, he may never have been identified. How could he not have realized he'd be on camera or described by witnesses? Now he gets caught with all the incriminating evidence you could ask for? I'd say Occam's Razor points to your second theory: He's not playing some sort of 4D chess. He just decided to go kill this guy for some reason and went and did it. Dumb luck and a dense population easily explains how he was able to escape the city.
- dexterdog 2y agoThat's the part that baffles me. Whenever something like this happens I re-engineer the planning as a mental exercise. I have never had any interest in offing anybody, but I never understand not having a plan and a basic disguise. The guy had IDs, but he also did nothing to hide his p[articular characteristics. If he had thinned his eyebrows and worn fake glasses and kept his mask on he'd likely still be at large. I would have ditched or reversed the jacket right away and thrown on a hat at the very least.
- 542354234235 2y agoI think it is more informative to think of a time you planned a big trip, especially if things went really wrong on the trip or there was a significant problem. Looking back with hindsight, I can see how I may have failed to see and adapt to an issue before it got bigger or that I act irrationally because I’m stressed and I haven’t let go of a preconceived notion and accepted the new situation. I have wondered why I didn’t investigate something beforehand that now seems obvious and important. There have been cases where sheer dumb luck saved me or screwed me. Afterwards I could say I should have had a backup X or should have planned Y ahead of time, but I didn’t see or do those things. There are so many moving parts in a situation like this that it is impossible to think of everything, and the things you don’t think of will look obvious to people after the fact. The dumb luck situations that save you or screw you can be interpreted as inside knowledge. His bumbling actions afterward from the outside might seem like a “why wouldn’t he just do this instead” without thinking about how the mental toll, stress, and panic of being hunted by the whole country could degrade your judgement.
- wisty 2y agoDisposing of evidence can sometimes be more incriminating than not. Let's say he shuts up and gets a lawyer. His lawyer can say that maybe the real gunman noticed he looked similar, then switched bags on a bus. It's weak, but it's something. If he tossed it in NYC, he leaves possible DNA at the scene. If he tosses it at home, the cops will likely find it and take his disposal as an admission of guilt. IANAL but while I guess it's not good to have your lawyer run the Shaggy defence ("it wasn't me!") if the police have made an effort in the investigation then there's a surprising chance they'll find the evidence anyway. At the very least that could be his rationale. He didn't know if they had a van watching his house, and if his bins were being collected by the police. He might have been too scared and paranoid to do anything.
- lazide 2y agoHe could have stopped at any number of bridges along the way, filled the backpack with bricks, and tossed it into the river.
- prmoustache 2y agoand could have been caught doing it. I can see someone planning meticulously the murder, the immediate fleeing thereafter but not the rest. If I remember images, he wasn't wearing gloves so he may have had to clean it before he planned to get rid of it. Plus he may have hit hiccups in the process that may have derailed part of his plans. The fact he had cash both in local and foreign money probably means he had planned to move out of the country but was kind of waiting for the dust to settle.
- Mo3 2y agoPlus, the release of all these unofficial pictures, and his capture being paraded by the media. They're trying to set an example.
- lr1970 2y agoNeither of your theories answer the question -- how did he know that the CEO was staying in a hotel other than Hilton (conference venue) and would arrive by foot 1 hour and 15 minutes before conference opens at 8am (CEOs do not typically arrive so early in advance). The shooter was caught on camera talking on a burner phone 15 minutes before shooting. Who did he talk to? Was he acting alone or received some help? The shooter only had to wait for 15 minutes or so before his target arrives. Pure "luck" or help from inside?
- jimbob45 2y agoThis is my sticking point as well. The bullet messages only made sense for this specific guy and that’s a whole lot of work to engrave bullets, take a multi-state bus ride, camp out in a hostel, etc if you’re not 100% sure the guy is going to be there. I’d feel more confident if he’d staked the route out for multiple days or if there was a plausible backup plan like breaking in to the CEO’s hotel or the conference.
- brookst 2y agoIsn’t this just selection bias? If he had been wrong and not seen the CEO, we would never have heard about him. For all we know he made 15 attempts before this.
- notahacker 2y agoYep. Also, if you're trying to surprise someone at their arrival to an event, you absolutely do arrive super early to wait for them rather than try to guess their exact arrival time. If the target had arrived in mid morning after missing the opening speech instead, his killer would have waited. If the target had made a late decision not to attend, we'd have probably found out about the killer via the next event or next target
- ceejayoz 2y ago> that’s a whole lot of work to engrave bullets They weren't engraved. It was just Sharpie. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/united-healthcare-ceo-brian-thompson-shooting-bullets-words-written-on-them/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/united-healthcare-ceo-brian-tho... "A source briefed on the investigation said each word was meticulously written, not etched, onto the casings in Sharpie." > 100% sure the guy is going to be there. One can be 100% sure the guy is gonna at least be at the conference, and humans tend to be predictable. He was also fairly likely to be at the venue the day before getting prepared.
- llm_nerd 2y ago>media really over-estimated this persons competence It is a bit of psychological blindness where we convince ourselves that random murders aren't as easy as they really are. The truth is that almost anyone -- including people with lots of security theater -- can be nullified by random people. This is quadruply true in the era of drones.
- ethbr1 2y agoThere's very little in America to stop a person who is willing to die (or spend life in prison) from killing others. Most normal people just have a healthy self preservation instinct, so aren't willing to accept those consequences.
- ANewFormation 2y agoIt's not just America. Shinzo Abe was assassinated, with security and at a public event, by somebody using a homemade gun with homemade ammo. As tech advances over time, this will all only become even more true.
- hedora 2y agoMass shootings in the US don’t even make the news any more. I don’t think that’s true in most countries: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mass_shootings_in_the_United_States_in_2024 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mass_shootings_in_th... 547 so far this year. If we had equal justice for all in this country, this CEO shooting would have barely made local news, maybe.
- wat10000 2y agoThe disparity is laid bare by the fact that this wasn’t even the only murder in lower Manhattan on that day. One gets a multi-state manhunt and the top spot on national news for days. The other got a shrug.
- 2y ago
- guerrilla 2y agoWell his manifesto seems to imply that he is sacraficing himself and expects to suffer but that he beleives its the honorable thing to do.
- bena 2y agoAlthough, if the evidence is damning and you don't want it found, keeping it on your person is not the worst idea. That way you know the only way they find any evidence is if they find you. Even if you try to destroy the evidence, evidence of you destroying the evidence works just as well for a lot of cases.
- nostrademons 2y agoThis looks like a case of "suicide by revolution". Various media reports (including this one) suggest that he had a back injury in 2023, has not worked since 2023, started losing touch with friends in 2023, has been reading books about back injuries and chronic pain, etc. If you've ever known someone dealing with chronic pain, it can easily make you decide that you're better off dead than continuing to live. Likely he's been seeking medical treatment for his injury, his insurer is United Health, they've done nothing but "delay, deny, defend", he's already decided that he's better off dead, and he might as well take the CEO of the health insurer with him.
- ceejayoz 2y agoWhen I heard about the Monopoly money I wondered if it matched up with the amount of a specific denied claim.
- cedws 2y agoBut he’s not dead, he’s going to prison. Does he plan to commit suicide behind bars? He’ll probably be on tighter watch than Epstein - that’s what happens when you mess with the ruling class.
- User23 2y agoI wouldn't be shocked if he walks. There is something crazy in the air and I could see a jury nullification happening here. It only takes one. Where are you going to find a jury where nobody on it has the same grudge for more or less the same reasons?
- diggan 2y ago> I wouldn't be shocked if he walks. Just for curiosities sake, who did you think would win the latest US presidential election? I feel like many (most?) people on the internet are kind of disconnected from people's everyday life outside of the internet. I'm guessing that most of the average folks (people outside the internet zeitgeist) never even heard about this assassination, even less cares about the assassin going free if they did.
- e-clinton 2y agoI don’t think people are over-estimating his competence. He set himself a goal and achieved it… getting away with it simply wasn’t important so it wasn’t the thing he obsessed over.
- MisterTea 2y ago> Probably fail to do so, then eventually get convicted on all charges and end up in a supermax penitentiary for life. Where he will finally get decent health care for free.
- Sindisil 2y agoDecent health care? In prison? Are you serious?
- MisterTea 2y agoRe-calibrate your sarcasm detector.
- throwaway48476 2y agoTo be fair if you have the resources to continually sue the prison you can get a decent amount.
- jjfoooo4 2y agoIt seems implausible that he was competent enough to locate his target and escape the day of yet so incompetent as to hold onto the gun. I think he definitely wanted to get caught. I’m curious about what exactly prompted whoever called him in to become suspicious - was the profile released from photos good enough? Or was he acting suspiciously with his backpack?
- IncreasePosts 2y agoIf he wanted to get caught, he didn't need to wear a disguise all the way from Georgia or wherever he came from. He didn't need to use a fake ID. He didn't need to flee the scene - at least, flee outside the city. Why would he do all that if he wanted to get caught?
- dudeinhawaii 2y agoHere's another option, combining the two. - The intelligent individual is also self-absorbed and believed that they would be able to continue to kill CEOs without getting caught. A narcissistic streak that allowed them to make no attempt at concealing their identity in public. They kept the weapon in order to move to a new target (or they 3D printed an identical if the reports of a 3D printed gun are correct). They believed they would either not get caught or that the public would not turn them in. They may have envisioned themselves the Ted of Healthcare.
- lamontcg 2y ago> Or the internet, media really over-estimated this persons competence. definitely this one. there was a lot of projection of competency onto him, wanting him to be some kind of superhero assassin that would disappear. when in reality, he wasn't using that welrod pistol clone, and his gun was jamming with every shot. but also he was self-destructive and definitely wasn't trying hard enough to not get caught. and that comes with the territory because you're not going to be well-adjusted and decide to assassinate someone in broad daylight. and i would pick self-destructive over arrogant. and he may just have not realized how distinct his facial features were.
- dole 2y agoHe knew it was going to jam because he didn't have a proper device on his suppressor. He's not surprised that he has to rack the slide after every shot, he knows that it most likely will not cycle and he'll have to work it manually and he reaches immediately to do it.
- randyrand 2y agoHe was also probably watching the news. At some point you know you’ve already been caught.