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Yeah, I have never seen something like that in America in my life. Always plenty of machines sitting around, and every few weeks some guys will hop on them for
by edot 2y ago
Yeah, I have never seen something like that in America in my life. Always plenty of machines sitting around, and every few weeks some guys will hop on them for the day, but other than that they just sit there. It almost looks AI generated how densely packed those are - though I assume that this is real footage.
- toomuchtodo 2y agoWith China's real estate sector stagnating (because they've built enough housing for future demand to an excess, broadly speaking), all of that capacity is moving towards clean energy manufacturing. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Made_in_China_2025 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Made_in_China_2025 https://thediplomat.com/2024/04/how-china-became-the-worlds-clean-tech-giant/ https://thediplomat.com/2024/04/how-china-became-the-worlds-...
- hackernewds 2y agoChina scaling and efficiency is really something else. it seems they've latched on to something that works better than even democracy and capitalism
- bobthepanda 2y agoThey’re certainly good at building. Actually utilizing that capacity is something else entirely; there are factories less than ten years old shuttering due to overcapacity. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/23/business/china-auto-factories-price-cuts.html https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/23/business/china-auto-facto... And the rush to subsidize more capacity is a big contributor to local government debt burdens in China, which is estimated to leave Chinese debt to GDP at 117%.
- seanmcdirmid 2y agoChina’s debt load fluctuates if you consider just the central government, local governments, and SOEs owned by either the central or local governments. Then you have private sector debt. SOEs are where a lot of china’s shadow debt comes from (localities ask SOEs they control to fund public projects of their own books), this is what pushes China’s debt load over 100%.
- coliveira 2y agoDebt in China is not a big issue, because Chinese banks are mostly owned by the Government. They can rearrange debt to deal with problems much more freely than Western governments.
- bobthepanda 2y agowhile this is true, they also have to do a lot more management of capital than most and it's a very delicate balancing act. Already, you have issues with bank confidence and normal people getting fleeced by fradulent or overly risky financial products because of the government's interventions in banking. Japan used to be activist towards in its banks too, and it was very good until it was catastrophic one day.
- coliveira 2y agoThe existence of overly risky products is something observed in Western banking as well. And a catastrophe caused by the banking system is not unheard of in the USA. So I don't see how this is a problem unique to China. In fact they have much more flexibility to solve issues in this area.
- bobthepanda 2y agoThere’s that and the LGFVs financed by land sales which are all off official balance sheets.
- jdietrich 2y agoYou are never going to get exactly the right amount of capacity, so the question is whether you want to err on the side of too much or too little. Too little might often be more efficient, but there are undeniable strategic benefits to having too much. The events of the last few years have taught us all some painful lessons about the hidden costs of JIT and lean. China might have got the balance wrong, but they aren't prima facie wrong.
- refulgentis 2y agoThey are prima facie wrong, their overcapacity is bad and actively harmful, this isn't a sign of it succeeding, its a sign of desperation from it failing. There's a type of Western mind that gets distracted by their scale, and getting to build things we built a century ago. Dazzled by the spectacle, this misses that their economy is characterized by deflationary headwinds due to a massive, massive over-investment in property, and this just squeezes the toothpaste (debt taken on to goose GDP) to another side of the tube. (housing to batteries)
- sangnoir 2y ago> There's a type of Western mind that gets distracted by their scale, and getting to build things we built a century ago Where in the US can one find the secret, cross-country high-speed rail built in the roaring twenties?! There's also a type of western mind that automatically dismisses the odds of a different country succeeding, based on nothing but the fact that they are using a different approach (on the surface). It's a kind if circular reasoning: our system is the best because we're the best, because of the system we have. To subvert the Simpsons - "the best so far" Edit: I'm far from a Sinophile, but there's a certain willful blindness, concerning an almost religious belief that the west will prevail because it's the west, regardless of all the systemic weaknesses that show up again and again. It would suck for a dictator-for-life leading the biggest economy in the world, but healthy minds would introspect to see how we can do better, like we should, right? I have no doubt out leaders will pick the wrong lessons, like social credit scores and pervasive surveillance
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- nl 2y agoIn the US this model is called venture capital - build lots of things knowing lots will fail. It's a model that creates big winners and lots of losers. Ironically of course the other alternative is central planning which is a hallmark of communist economic systems. > estimated to leave Chinese debt to GDP at 117% Japan is 264%, Singapore 168%, the US 129%, France 112%, Canada is 107%, UK 97%, Germany 66%, Australia 22%, Afghanistan 7.4%, Kuwait 2.1%. A debt ratio isn't particularly useful to know on it's own.
- ZeroGravitas 2y ago10-year old ICE car factories idling is a sign of success in their transition to NEV. > China has more than 100 factories with the capacity to build close to 40 million internal combustion engine cars a year. That is roughly twice as many as people in China want to buy, and sales of these cars are dropping fast as electric vehicles become more popular.
- tsudonym 2y agoNot a great take - those factories are foreign owned ICE car factories. Hyundai basically underestimated how fast China's EV transition would be. That's good news for China, full speed domestic EV production.
- pixelatedindex 2y ago> it seems they've latched on to something that works better than even democracy and capitalism Wouldn’t this just be plain old fashioned authoritarianism? America can latch on to this too, and we might based on how the Trump admin turns out.
- foxglacier 2y agoNo. One required component is plain old fashioned oversupply of labor. America doesn't have that because all employable people are too rich. China also has an oversupply of skilled labor like engineers, in part because the threat of poverty is a strong motivator to get rich. America also lacks that which you can see in capable young people doing arts degrees with no thought to their future income because it doesn't matter - they'll still live comfortably even on minimum wage.
- meiraleal 2y agoThere is an estimation of 11-30 million undocumented immigrants in the US. The biggest difference is that in the US they are working on fast food jobs, house cleaning, babysitting. Different priorities.
- rangestransform 2y agoThat’s an easy enough problem to solve if we had the appetite to solve it, why couldn’t we legitimize the roles illegal immigrants currently do right now with a Singapore style migrant worker program?
- throwaway2037 2y agoTo be clear, I think that there is an existing, legal migrant worker programme. They do most of the non-automated farm work in Central Valley California. Also, the Singapore system is a bit ugly if you look closely. I hope the US can do better.
- aurareturn 2y agoProbably because the average Chinese is far more skilled than your average illegal immigrant. It's not just raw labor force. It's capable engineers, designers, architects, etc. How is illegal immigration going to solve this?
- Dalewyn 2y ago[flagged]
- meiraleal 2y ago> Basically, Chinese government wants a bigass factory and they will get a bigass factory because literally fuck you. And what's the difference from the US government when it wants a bigass factory? Isn't the difference that the US also wanted China to build bigass factories? They got too good at that.
- Dalewyn 2y ago[flagged]
- chii 2y agonot just that, but the fact that the US gov't does hold elections means that what they do generally is in line with the people. At this moment, what the chinese gov't is doing is _also_ (presumably) in line with their people's wishes - after all, factories and exports means jobs and economic growth. It remains to be seen if this continues to be in the face of a potential war, tariffs, or some other external shock.
- XorNot 2y agoNo, it's when an authoritarian government wants something they'll get it. And by get it I mean "they'll take your house, ignore any local environment concerns and possibly just demolish entire villages and generational livelihoods". Everyone seems to have some "oh how great it is they just get things done" as though they haven't diligently turned up to complain about some development application of the local council. Yeah, sunshine and rainbows I suppose provided you're thousands of miles away.
- Dalewyn 2y ago[flagged]
- 2y ago
- fyrn_ 2y agoEfficient yes, generates good quality of life for the average citizen? Not as much. Plenty the west can learn from China on how to do large public works though.
- coliveira 2y agoQuality of life for average citizen improved must faster in China that in the US during the last 40 years.
- ahartmetz 2y agoThe doubts about the size of the investment in that Wikipedia article are funny. It's a bit like "We cannot afford to invest in education", but the Chinese are saying "We cannot afford not to invest in education" (Famous quotes, it's more about R&D here). China's leadership is probably terrified of falling into the middle-income trap. It might be the biggest issue on their minds right now. At least I am watching from the sidelines, wondering "Are they gonna make it?".
- toomuchtodo 2y agohttps://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41664312 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41664312
- refulgentis 2y agoMe too! My guess is 2031, but it'll feel hollow - Definition of this is 12,000 2011 USD, BLS says thats 17,600 2024 USD. Looking like 2024 closes at a little under 13,000 24 USD. If we calculate out the 6% CCP standard GDP growth rate, it'd take 5 years - GDP is not very likely to grow at the formerly-real 6% per year moving forward. Population peaked, trade is now a tailwind instead of a headwind, GDP per capita at 13,000 is 0.5x Russia and 2.5x India, and we're in year 2 of a deflationary crisis that's barely being held off, if it is, and is characterized by an significant oversupply in housing stock that'll take years to run down. So I'll tack on 2 years, make it 7 years, 2031.
- Yeul 2y agoEducation has always been important in Chinese culture.
- PittleyDunkin 2y agoNot democratized education, to my understanding. Rural china has never had the sort of broad access to education that exists there now (and is still rapidly developing).
- jpgvm 2y agoYou could say it's central to their culture. Sort of goes for most Asian cultures, the education of children is something Asian parents will sacrifice greatly for.
- SoftTalker 2y agoAnd what blows my mind is that if I want to rent a tractor with a front loader for some landscaping work it’s hundreds a day. Yet even larger commercial earth moving equipment sits around unused for weeks.
- foxglacier 2y agoSome of that may be due to the owner transporting it from job to job instead of storing it in their own yard. Nonetheless, there's a lot of idle people/equipment in construction because things have to be done in the right order and sometimes it's more economical to over-provision than risk delaying the whole project because something wasn't available when it was needed. Those hundreds per day will partly pay for all the sitting around unused in the hiring company's yard! You can see this in the pricing which is usually a lower rate if you hire it for a longer period.
- bombcar 2y agoIt's about usable time and cost of capital - if it's cheaper to rent the unit, they'll rent one, if it's cheaper to buy one and let it sit idle most of the time, they'll do that. The rent/buy calculus can be incredibly shunted towards "buy" once you're using it even somewhat. It's even more so when you realize that labor costs is the main issue, and not having a skilled worker waiting around for an item to be delivered (by another slightly less skilled worker, perhaps) is a huge savings in its own part. Five guys on a site might have 15 machines total; even though they obviously can't use all 15 at the same time.
- orangesun 2y agoIt does seem to have an AI look to it. The resolution is pretty poor.
- kevin_thibedeau 2y agoThey're building a large carwash facility near me and have taken over a year to get to the point of putting the roofs onto some steel framed sheds. I constantly think of the time when we were able to build the Empire State Building in 13 months.
- hangonhn 2y agoThe other really impressive part is that they also treated the workers really well during the construction. Cautionary Tales did an episode on this: https://timharford.com/2024/09/cautionary-tales-steel-and-kindness-the-clash-of-the-skyscrapers/ https://timharford.com/2024/09/cautionary-tales-steel-and-ki... They paid good wages but also kept a high bar on quality and performance. The workers in turn were incentivized to do a good job and gave feedback like ideas on how to improve efficiency, e.g. build an internal railroad to carry bricks up as they got higher and higher in height.
- marcosdumay 2y agoYou can't do something like the Empire State Building in an year without treating your workers well. (And the suppliers, and investing in machines quality, and safety...) You can build it in a decade or two, and get something close to what you designed. But you can't build it in an year.
- bluGill 2y agoThey just built a car wash near me, just a few months from start to finish. I don't know what is going on with the one near you, but it isn't a US thing. Of course car washes are a case where I could see someone building one to keep their crews busy between other better paying jobs. Thus have lots of stops as other projects come in. there isn't much investment sitting and there is value to a contractor to keep their crews busy (read paid!) even when there is no other work. I could see a car wash company agreeing to a build this over 2 years for a discount even though there are only a few months of work - for both it could be financially beneficial.
- deleted 2y ago[deleted]
- fasa99 2y agoI have, happens around 6 AM. They get all the generators started up, power tools and full power. All the heavy machinery at full throttle. A cacaphonous 6AM salute to the internal combustion engine. Old Zeke fills his truckbed full of rusty nails and drives aggressively around the neighborhood dropping this way and that. Well, not old Zeke nowadays, more like Senor Ramirez Carloz Gonzalez. Question is, if it's 6 AM at a construction site, and nobody is around to hear it, do they make any noise?