10 ms·

The Retreat to Muskworld

142 points by nabla9 2y ago

ninetyninenine 2y ago
I mean he just caught a giant rocket with chopsticks so let him go all in.
- tjpnz 2y ago
  Not without help. https://i.redd.it/2reoopbklkud1.jpeg https://i.redd.it/2reoopbklkud1.jpeg
- ragebol 2y ago
  Musk inspired and hired a lot of great engineers that made this all possible. His vision, passion and capital are crucial in this, but he dis not catch these himself, nor did he engineer any of the control systems to the detail needed to make this work, I'm sure.
  - TomK32 2y ago
    I wonder how the mood is at SpaceX. I mean, those engineers see how he unsafe the production workers at Telsa have to work, they see how shit he's treating everyone at Twitter and basically sinking it, how long before someone the mood turns sour and we see an outflow to the competition?
    - blueredmodern 2y ago
      It's right around the corner. The evidence that Musk is actually really dumb is riiiiight around the corner. And will continue to be, for a very long time.
      - rob74 2y ago
        Yeah, he's a very stable genius. Just like his very stable genius buddy...
    - oldpersonintx 2y ago
      [dead]
    - shiroiushi 2y ago
      The problem I see here is: what competition? There doesn't exactly seem to be any in the rocketry space. There's Boeing, but that place is a disaster right now. I guess ULA is still around, but they're not doing anything groundbreaking at all AFAICT, just using old rocket designs to launch some satellites. Where else can these people go? Twitter people can go lots of places, both competing social networks, and also various other internet-related or software places. Tesla people can go to lots of different competing automakers. But I don't see anyplace nice for SpaceX people to go.
      - timschmidt 2y ago
        > what competition? The list is actually pretty long: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_private_spaceflight_companies https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_private_spaceflight_co... And that's not counting nation states.
        ywvcbk 2y ago
        Pencil pushing for pennies at Airbus/ArianeSpace is probably not that appealing. Going to work for the Chinese or Russians? Well.. as long as you’re not planning to ever go back home. There aren’t that many options for people who want to be a part of a team that actually accomplishes something significant.
        timschmidt 2y ago
        You say that, but at least half a dozen of these companies in the linked wikipedia list, all western, launched rockets last year. And several more are on track to launch within the next. Rocketlab is a serious competitor with multiple spaceports, a rapid launch cadence, and reusability and next-generation launcher projects in the works. Blue Origin is supplying engines to ULA and seems almost ready to test New Glen. Firefly had a successful launch. Stoke is working on a resuability concept that's even more exciting than starship, and advancing steadily through testing flight capable hardware. The list goes on. Rocketlab and others even have products which standardize the bus part of the sattellite or probe, so you just attach your science experiment or sensor.
    - nailer 2y ago
      People at twitter seem to be very happy, major features like community notes are being shipped and having a huge impact on the platform and the company is much healthier after he removed the employees that weren’t doing anything.
      - eadler 2y ago
        Community notes was designed and shipped before the takeover. It was called "birdwatch".
    - ragebol 2y ago
      Not to mention his politics. I see space exploration as progress, which doesn't really mesh with conservative, backward politics.
    - raincole 2y ago
      Outflow to where? Boeing? Russia?
    - ragebol 2y ago
      There's some new competitors, like Stoke, Relativity, Blue Origin, bunch more I'm forgetting. This sort of diaspora of talent with experience is good to have, if there is capital
      - ragebol 2y ago
        LOL, Blue Origin is not new btw. But new to launching orbital rockets
  - ninetyninenine 2y ago
    He pushed for it and is instrumental in the design. Musk is not just a ceo.
- TulliusCicero 2y ago
  SpaceX is doing ridiculously well, but that doesn't mean all of Musk's bets are equally smart. So far he seems to be terribly wrong on self-driving.
  - zimpenfish 2y ago
    > So far he seems to be terribly wrong on self-driving. Don't forget the colonisation of Mars. He's even more wrong on that one.
    - bigfatkitten 2y ago
      If he wants to make his 2026 Mars promise, he needs to be ready to go in the next month or so. I'm a bit sceptical.
    - vixen99 2y ago
      On the other hand, if we shortly discover an asteroid on course to meet Earth within a concerning time frame or some other predictable disaster coming down the pike, they'll be a mass effort to take giant steps to ensure he and others are not wrong.
      - zimpenfish 2y ago
        > some other predictable disaster coming down the pike I mean, we have one of those right now (that we've known about since at least the 1980s) and ... > they'll be a mass effort to take giant steps That isn't happening. And climate change is an easy thing to deal with compared with the colonisation of Mars.
  - chii 2y ago
    musk's track record of bets is 4 out of 6[0] - a pretty good one. [0]: the successful bets: paypal, tesla, spacex, starlink. Failures: twitter, self-driving. To be determined: ai.
    - cmrdporcupine 2y ago
- blueredmodern 2y ago
  His track record for being behind all these mindblowing innovations is off the record, but we don't like his face, so he doesn't deserve any credit for it!
  - BriggyDwiggs42 2y ago
    For any comment making fun of elon’s face, I’ll find you twenty criticizing more substantive traits.
dale_glass 2y ago
I don't understand why Musk/Tesla is so insistent on having cars do self-driving purely on cameras. Both from the technical and the marketing point of view having a car that can do better than any human ever could, even in the most optimal of conditions would be a great thing.
- TulliusCicero 2y ago
  Musk gets obsessed with big bets when people tell him something isn't possible. That, plus the hardware costs are much saner for Tesla if they don't need a bunch of lidars. That said, this particular big bet looks pretty bad for Musk. He's been confidently promising self-driving either "this year" or "next year" for the last several years, and so far Tesla appears nowhere close to getting L4/L5 driving down.
  - gambiting 2y ago
    I mean, Volvo is already delivering the EX90 with a LIDAR integrated from factory for similar money to the Model X - and I can't imagine Volvo is losing money on them, so it can be done. Tesla just chose not to. And yes, I know the EX90 is currently an absolute mess in terms of software and their LIDAR isn't even enabled for driving assists yet, but the hardware is there so it can be built on scale.
    - b112 2y ago
      I presume there is a bigger game here. Androids, eg humanform robots, will require the capacity to navigate on camera alone. Specifically, loads of object detection with smaller objects, imagine an android cleaning off a table after dinner. Visual spectrum, camera identification is vital here. So it's all one ball of wax. Tesla is not juet a car company, likely in 5 years the number of androids they sell will dwarf car sales.
      - zimpenfish 2y ago
        > Androids, eg humanform robots, will require the capacity to navigate on camera alone. But those cameras don't have to be simple visual spectrum cameras, do they? They could have, for example, in each eye, LIDAR, infrared, several focal lengths of visual, etc. Not to mention being able to augment those sensors at places humans just don't get sensor data (e.g: back of head; outward facing from shoulders, hips, etc.; constant presence monitoring via ultrasound / IR / 2.4GHz, etc.)
blackhaz 2y ago
I don't understand what's the message here, asides from that the author is bitter. Musk and his team have made incredible progress in many important directions, to the point that it feels the next industrial revolution is just around the corner. Let him go all in.
- gambiting 2y ago
  >>I don't understand what's the message here You really don't? 8 years ago Tesla did a (fake) video of their car "self driving" on real streets. 8 years of promises and in effort to convice their investors that they are actually making progress towards that goal is.....a movie set with fake streets to drive on? While Waymo is delivering real self driving taxi rides in the real world? What isn't clear about this message to you, exactly?
  - timschmidt 2y ago
    > a movie set with fake streets to drive on? While Waymo is delivering real self driving taxi rides "Tesla FSD Supervised Tops 1.6 Billion Total Miles Driven": https://teslanorth.com/2024/08/07/tesla-fsd-supervised-1-6-billion-miles-driven/ https://teslanorth.com/2024/08/07/tesla-fsd-supervised-1-6-b... Seems obvious that movie sets are like red carpets, no?
    - stonogo 2y ago
      Do you see the word "Supervised" there?
      - timschmidt 2y ago
        Do you think the data from the one doesn't apply toward the other? Is politics really enough to get people to stop believing in incremental problem solving? Can we communicate entirely in question form?
        stonogo 2y ago
bjarneh 2y ago
> showing a low-speed, closed-course theme park ride in order to build confidence around Tesla’s progress toward actual real-world driverless capability is almost too childish to call a fraud This guy has lost confidence in Musk's promises. I never really understood how Musk can claim to be so close to full autonomy when these cars clearly struggle with basic things using the exact same system that supposedly drives by itself. Automatic high/low beam or detecting rain does not work very well. You wold think that a system that cannot detect oncoming traffic (high/low beam), or actual rain has some other problems when it comes to self-driving.
- jnsaff2 2y ago
  On the cars with matrix-led's the high-low has been solved very well. It used to be bad and now it's almost perfect. Wipers, dunno, they used to be really bad but I have not noticed the issue in the past few months, maybe they have done something. That said, I am still agreeing with you on "struggle with basic things", there are phantom breakings in the exact same spots this and other teslas have driven thousands of times. There are occasional cases where it would follow the wrong road-markings into a crash would I not intervene and so forth.
  - illwrks 2y ago
    Honest question, considering I have never driven or been in a Tesla, when you say “it would follow the wrong road markings into a crash would I not intervene”, are you not concerned for your safety when driving it.
    - benfortuna 2y ago
      Agreed. Just sounds like a stressful experience all round.
    - jnsaff2 2y ago
      I never paid for any of the autonomous upsells, so for me this is a lane-keeping functionality and I treat it as such, meaning it helps me but I am still fully responsible for my own safety. It happens rarely enough, and as I mostly drive on the same roads, I know where it happens as well, usually I disconnect the thing before it gets to the problematic place. So no, it's so much stressful as annoying. But it does remind me that the claims of self-driving is just horse-shit.
gchokov 2y ago
The guy behind the article is bashing on Musk on constant basis. What a biased, one sided, bullshit article. You can also check his also rantings. I guess.. he wanted to work for Musk, but was never able to? Why the hate? He even deleted my comments when trying to argue on some of his statements. Lol.
- BriggyDwiggs42 2y ago
  I didn’t think the article really had any issues. I actually thought it was pretty well-written.
  - blueredmodern 2y ago
    Yeah, it seemed pretty balanced and well thought out: "Ploy for credibility, retreating even deeper into fantasy, pretense of reality, pure fantasy, contained within a world of fantasy, retreating into misinformation-fuelled fantasy world, runaway ego, less palatable, self-soothing fantasy bubble, fake statistics, blown deadlines, litany of bullshit, chronic inability, unprecedented publish delusion or deception, having drawn a poor hand, financial-cognitive nightmare, it’s hard to imagine anyone seriously believing that a night of delusional Disney Adult cringe, too childish to call a fraud, Musk’s increasingly-degenerate gambling run is slouching toward one last big coinflip"
    - egeozcan 2y ago
      Facts sprinkled with personal interpretation, a normal, albeit not an extraordinary, blog post? I admire some of the things Elon Musk has made happen, but the guy has obvious ego issues and acts often like a villain from a child superhero movie. If a blog post is "biased, one sided, bullshit" for calling this behavior and all the accompanying unkept promises, what they are, together with some creative words and interpretation, why do we have blog posts in the first place?
    - BriggyDwiggs42 2y ago
      Yeah well-written unironically
oldpersonintx 2y ago
[dead]
davedx 2y ago
The most recent Brownlee video of it was spot on IMO: https://youtu.be/fgm5uZaS3-E?si=Wkf4_vxGEtaS0eNa https://youtu.be/fgm5uZaS3-E?si=Wkf4_vxGEtaS0eNa
axegon_ 2y ago
[flagged]
- Shawnecy 2y ago
  [flagged]
blueredmodern 2y ago
"Ploy for credibility, retreating even deeper into fantasy, pretense of reality, pure fantasy, contained within a world of fantasy, retreating into misinformation-fuelled fantasy world, runaway ego, less palatable, self-soothing fantasy bubble, fake statistics, blown deadlines, litany of bullshit, chronic inability, unprecedented publish delusion or deception, having drawn a poor hand, financial-cognitive nightmare, it’s hard to imagine anyone seriously believing that a night of delusional Disney Adult cringe, too childish to call a fraud, Musk’s increasingly-degenerate gambling run is slouching toward one last big coinflip" Some people have a rather unhealthy obsession with Elon Musk, and ought to take a few hours off the Internet and get some sunlight.
jeisc 2y ago
whoever wins the election, Musk is supplying NASA with spaceships for now and the immediate future and next probably will take over Boeing to make self flying personal airplanes
iammjm 2y ago
So does Tesla FSD use cameras to create point clouds in real time with photogrammetry that they then segment and classify via AI and act accordingly, or is it something else entirely?
- purplethinking 2y ago
  Something else entirely. Similar to an LLM, V12 of FSD is trained on on tens of millions of clips of people driving. The model takes in the history of frames over some period of time and spits out a path for the car to take, conditioned on the route from the regular route planner. As with LLMs, this approach has the benefit that it scales well according to a set scaling law: add more data, add more training and inference compute and your model will get predictably better. Tesla has the ability to sample driving behavior from almost any of its 6+ million cars world wide, based on certain triggers. The video (usually 30 seconds long) is uploaded to Tesla along with the actions that the human driver took during that time. Training a model like this is called Imitation Learning, or Behavior Cloning, and it's all the rage in robotics right now. But Tesla also has direct intervention data from its 0.5m users running FSD. Whenever a user intervenes (by disengaging the system through the steering wheel or brake, or by pressing the gas), the clip gets sent back. Tesla can then train on this clip directly to correct bad behavior, this is called Expert Intervention Learning, and it's mathematically proved to fix certain problems with raw Behavior Cloning.
gabesullice 2y ago
If anyone is going to make self driving work, the odds are stacked in Tesla's favor. They have more data and distribution than any of their competitors. If/when that day comes, a decade—or two—of relentlessly pursuing that goal while making hyper optimistic predictions will be entirely irrelevant. Root for the ambitious… The alternative is to ignore or tear them down. And it doesn't appear to be very fun to be in either of those camps. I literally jumped for joy yesterday when SpaceX achieved a major milestone along their ambitious path. It's been fun following along and cheering for them. I feel similarly excited for Tesla when they demonstrate robots with incredible dexterity. Even if they're not fully autonomous. They will still be a game changer for workplace safety. Imagine sending one up an electrical tower ladder in Alaska to replace a tranformer while an operator uses FPV goggles and gloves to control the robot from an office building in Fairbanks over a Starlink connection. Or a robot enabling a scientist to take ice cores in Antarctica from the warmth of McMurdo Station. This scenario would provide enormous quantities of training data as well. The baseline AI-powered mobility and object avoidance subroutines are enough to make that viable while falling back to remote, human control for 'high resolution', less routine tasks. This same principle applies to robotaxis… And perhaps many Teslas already on the road if they can be retrofitted with the appropriate networking equipment.
- deleted 2y ago
  [deleted]
- jand 2y ago
  > They will still be a game changer for workplace safety. Sure. The robots could be used to distribute shoes and safety equipment to the less fortunate child laborers around the world.
- mihaic 2y ago
  > Root for the ambitious… The alternative is to ignore or tear them down. Some resources are mostly zero-sum, support being one. That means that buying their product or even buying their stock means not supporting their competitors. At this point, after so many hollow promises from Tesla, why shouldn't the money support plenty of other competitors as well?
evil_genius 2y ago
I think this article does a good job in describing why I always found Tesla's tech demos so jarring. There's a certain amount of "movie magic" that goes into any tech demo to make it work well on stage but Tesla's demos never gave me a sense that what I was seeing would actually line up with how their cars will perform in the real world. You have to be ambitious and aim high in the tech industry, but at some point you have to level out and stop getting high on hype.
purplethinking 2y ago
Musk Derangement Syndrome
ThinkBeat 2y ago
The ending spoilt the story for me. Low quality election propaganda. I am surprised its on the front page, since thankfully election posts are extremely rare. (Thank you for that guys) Arguing the failure to deliver self driving, even though it has been promised repeated and greatly failed is fine. The political rage rant at the end is not. (This of course goes for any side in this election) >"Ultimately, Musk’s increasingly-degenerate gambling run is slouching toward one >last big coinflip: the 2024 presidential election. With Musk going “all-in” on >Donald Trump, and musing that he will end up in a prison cell if Kamala Harris >is elected, it’s clear that his main political issue is his freedom to keep >rolling over his endless confidence game without legal consequences. If Trump >wins and delivers Musk the impunity he craves, the line between amusement park >fantasy and $700 billion self-driving juggernaut will all but disappear, and we >will all find ourselves living in Muskworld’s house of mirrors.
- Sammi 2y ago
  Doesn't read like a rage rant to me. Reads like a sober assessment of Musks behavior in regards to politics recently. He has gone full Trump fan and Kamala hater. He's become what he says he hates. He's become a demagogue.

142 points by nabla9 2y ago

ninetyninenine 2y ago

I mean he just caught a giant rocket with chopsticks so let him go all in.

tjpnz 2y ago
Not without help. https://i.redd.it/2reoopbklkud1.jpeg https://i.redd.it/2reoopbklkud1.jpeg
ragebol 2y ago
Musk inspired and hired a lot of great engineers that made this all possible. His vision, passion and capital are crucial in this, but he dis not catch these himself, nor did he engineer any of the control systems to the detail needed to make this work, I'm sure.
- TomK32 2y ago
  I wonder how the mood is at SpaceX. I mean, those engineers see how he unsafe the production workers at Telsa have to work, they see how shit he's treating everyone at Twitter and basically sinking it, how long before someone the mood turns sour and we see an outflow to the competition?
  - blueredmodern 2y ago
    It's right around the corner. The evidence that Musk is actually really dumb is riiiiight around the corner. And will continue to be, for a very long time.
    - rob74 2y ago
      Yeah, he's a very stable genius. Just like his very stable genius buddy...
  - oldpersonintx 2y ago
    [dead]
  - shiroiushi 2y ago
    The problem I see here is: what competition? There doesn't exactly seem to be any in the rocketry space. There's Boeing, but that place is a disaster right now. I guess ULA is still around, but they're not doing anything groundbreaking at all AFAICT, just using old rocket designs to launch some satellites. Where else can these people go? Twitter people can go lots of places, both competing social networks, and also various other internet-related or software places. Tesla people can go to lots of different competing automakers. But I don't see anyplace nice for SpaceX people to go.
    - timschmidt 2y ago
      > what competition? The list is actually pretty long: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_private_spaceflight_companies https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_private_spaceflight_co... And that's not counting nation states.
      - ywvcbk 2y ago
        Pencil pushing for pennies at Airbus/ArianeSpace is probably not that appealing. Going to work for the Chinese or Russians? Well.. as long as you’re not planning to ever go back home. There aren’t that many options for people who want to be a part of a team that actually accomplishes something significant.
        timschmidt 2y ago
        You say that, but at least half a dozen of these companies in the linked wikipedia list, all western, launched rockets last year. And several more are on track to launch within the next. Rocketlab is a serious competitor with multiple spaceports, a rapid launch cadence, and reusability and next-generation launcher projects in the works. Blue Origin is supplying engines to ULA and seems almost ready to test New Glen. Firefly had a successful launch. Stoke is working on a resuability concept that's even more exciting than starship, and advancing steadily through testing flight capable hardware. The list goes on. Rocketlab and others even have products which standardize the bus part of the sattellite or probe, so you just attach your science experiment or sensor.
  - nailer 2y ago
    People at twitter seem to be very happy, major features like community notes are being shipped and having a huge impact on the platform and the company is much healthier after he removed the employees that weren’t doing anything.
    - eadler 2y ago
      Community notes was designed and shipped before the takeover. It was called "birdwatch".
  - ragebol 2y ago
    Not to mention his politics. I see space exploration as progress, which doesn't really mesh with conservative, backward politics.
  - raincole 2y ago
    Outflow to where? Boeing? Russia?
  - ragebol 2y ago
    There's some new competitors, like Stoke, Relativity, Blue Origin, bunch more I'm forgetting. This sort of diaspora of talent with experience is good to have, if there is capital
    - ragebol 2y ago
      LOL, Blue Origin is not new btw. But new to launching orbital rockets
- ninetyninenine 2y ago
  He pushed for it and is instrumental in the design. Musk is not just a ceo.
TulliusCicero 2y ago
SpaceX is doing ridiculously well, but that doesn't mean all of Musk's bets are equally smart. So far he seems to be terribly wrong on self-driving.
- zimpenfish 2y ago
  > So far he seems to be terribly wrong on self-driving. Don't forget the colonisation of Mars. He's even more wrong on that one.
  - bigfatkitten 2y ago
    If he wants to make his 2026 Mars promise, he needs to be ready to go in the next month or so. I'm a bit sceptical.
  - vixen99 2y ago
    On the other hand, if we shortly discover an asteroid on course to meet Earth within a concerning time frame or some other predictable disaster coming down the pike, they'll be a mass effort to take giant steps to ensure he and others are not wrong.
    - zimpenfish 2y ago
      > some other predictable disaster coming down the pike I mean, we have one of those right now (that we've known about since at least the 1980s) and ... > they'll be a mass effort to take giant steps That isn't happening. And climate change is an easy thing to deal with compared with the colonisation of Mars.
- chii 2y ago
  musk's track record of bets is 4 out of 6[0] - a pretty good one. [0]: the successful bets: paypal, tesla, spacex, starlink. Failures: twitter, self-driving. To be determined: ai.
  - cmrdporcupine 2y ago
blueredmodern 2y ago
His track record for being behind all these mindblowing innovations is off the record, but we don't like his face, so he doesn't deserve any credit for it!
- BriggyDwiggs42 2y ago
  For any comment making fun of elon’s face, I’ll find you twenty criticizing more substantive traits.

dale_glass 2y ago

I don't understand why Musk/Tesla is so insistent on having cars do self-driving purely on cameras. Both from the technical and the marketing point of view having a car that can do better than any human ever could, even in the most optimal of conditions would be a great thing.

TulliusCicero 2y ago
Musk gets obsessed with big bets when people tell him something isn't possible. That, plus the hardware costs are much saner for Tesla if they don't need a bunch of lidars. That said, this particular big bet looks pretty bad for Musk. He's been confidently promising self-driving either "this year" or "next year" for the last several years, and so far Tesla appears nowhere close to getting L4/L5 driving down.
- gambiting 2y ago
  I mean, Volvo is already delivering the EX90 with a LIDAR integrated from factory for similar money to the Model X - and I can't imagine Volvo is losing money on them, so it can be done. Tesla just chose not to. And yes, I know the EX90 is currently an absolute mess in terms of software and their LIDAR isn't even enabled for driving assists yet, but the hardware is there so it can be built on scale.
  - b112 2y ago
    I presume there is a bigger game here. Androids, eg humanform robots, will require the capacity to navigate on camera alone. Specifically, loads of object detection with smaller objects, imagine an android cleaning off a table after dinner. Visual spectrum, camera identification is vital here. So it's all one ball of wax. Tesla is not juet a car company, likely in 5 years the number of androids they sell will dwarf car sales.
    - zimpenfish 2y ago
      > Androids, eg humanform robots, will require the capacity to navigate on camera alone. But those cameras don't have to be simple visual spectrum cameras, do they? They could have, for example, in each eye, LIDAR, infrared, several focal lengths of visual, etc. Not to mention being able to augment those sensors at places humans just don't get sensor data (e.g: back of head; outward facing from shoulders, hips, etc.; constant presence monitoring via ultrasound / IR / 2.4GHz, etc.)

blackhaz 2y ago

I don't understand what's the message here, asides from that the author is bitter. Musk and his team have made incredible progress in many important directions, to the point that it feels the next industrial revolution is just around the corner. Let him go all in.

gambiting 2y ago
>>I don't understand what's the message here You really don't? 8 years ago Tesla did a (fake) video of their car "self driving" on real streets. 8 years of promises and in effort to convice their investors that they are actually making progress towards that goal is.....a movie set with fake streets to drive on? While Waymo is delivering real self driving taxi rides in the real world? What isn't clear about this message to you, exactly?
- timschmidt 2y ago
  > a movie set with fake streets to drive on? While Waymo is delivering real self driving taxi rides "Tesla FSD Supervised Tops 1.6 Billion Total Miles Driven": https://teslanorth.com/2024/08/07/tesla-fsd-supervised-1-6-billion-miles-driven/ https://teslanorth.com/2024/08/07/tesla-fsd-supervised-1-6-b... Seems obvious that movie sets are like red carpets, no?
  - stonogo 2y ago
    Do you see the word "Supervised" there?
    - timschmidt 2y ago
      Do you think the data from the one doesn't apply toward the other? Is politics really enough to get people to stop believing in incremental problem solving? Can we communicate entirely in question form?
      - stonogo 2y ago

bjarneh 2y ago

> showing a low-speed, closed-course theme park ride in order to build confidence around Tesla’s progress toward actual real-world driverless capability is almost too childish to call a fraud This guy has lost confidence in Musk's promises. I never really understood how Musk can claim to be so close to full autonomy when these cars clearly struggle with basic things using the exact same system that supposedly drives by itself. Automatic high/low beam or detecting rain does not work very well. You wold think that a system that cannot detect oncoming traffic (high/low beam), or actual rain has some other problems when it comes to self-driving.

jnsaff2 2y ago
On the cars with matrix-led's the high-low has been solved very well. It used to be bad and now it's almost perfect. Wipers, dunno, they used to be really bad but I have not noticed the issue in the past few months, maybe they have done something. That said, I am still agreeing with you on "struggle with basic things", there are phantom breakings in the exact same spots this and other teslas have driven thousands of times. There are occasional cases where it would follow the wrong road-markings into a crash would I not intervene and so forth.
- illwrks 2y ago
  Honest question, considering I have never driven or been in a Tesla, when you say “it would follow the wrong road markings into a crash would I not intervene”, are you not concerned for your safety when driving it.
  - benfortuna 2y ago
    Agreed. Just sounds like a stressful experience all round.
  - jnsaff2 2y ago
    I never paid for any of the autonomous upsells, so for me this is a lane-keeping functionality and I treat it as such, meaning it helps me but I am still fully responsible for my own safety. It happens rarely enough, and as I mostly drive on the same roads, I know where it happens as well, usually I disconnect the thing before it gets to the problematic place. So no, it's so much stressful as annoying. But it does remind me that the claims of self-driving is just horse-shit.

gchokov 2y ago

The guy behind the article is bashing on Musk on constant basis. What a biased, one sided, bullshit article. You can also check his also rantings. I guess.. he wanted to work for Musk, but was never able to? Why the hate? He even deleted my comments when trying to argue on some of his statements. Lol.

BriggyDwiggs42 2y ago
I didn’t think the article really had any issues. I actually thought it was pretty well-written.
- blueredmodern 2y ago
  Yeah, it seemed pretty balanced and well thought out: "Ploy for credibility, retreating even deeper into fantasy, pretense of reality, pure fantasy, contained within a world of fantasy, retreating into misinformation-fuelled fantasy world, runaway ego, less palatable, self-soothing fantasy bubble, fake statistics, blown deadlines, litany of bullshit, chronic inability, unprecedented publish delusion or deception, having drawn a poor hand, financial-cognitive nightmare, it’s hard to imagine anyone seriously believing that a night of delusional Disney Adult cringe, too childish to call a fraud, Musk’s increasingly-degenerate gambling run is slouching toward one last big coinflip"
  - egeozcan 2y ago
    Facts sprinkled with personal interpretation, a normal, albeit not an extraordinary, blog post? I admire some of the things Elon Musk has made happen, but the guy has obvious ego issues and acts often like a villain from a child superhero movie. If a blog post is "biased, one sided, bullshit" for calling this behavior and all the accompanying unkept promises, what they are, together with some creative words and interpretation, why do we have blog posts in the first place?
  - BriggyDwiggs42 2y ago
    Yeah well-written unironically

oldpersonintx 2y ago

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davedx 2y ago

The most recent Brownlee video of it was spot on IMO: https://youtu.be/fgm5uZaS3-E?si=Wkf4_vxGEtaS0eNa https://youtu.be/fgm5uZaS3-E?si=Wkf4_vxGEtaS0eNa

axegon_ 2y ago

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Shawnecy 2y ago
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blueredmodern 2y ago

"Ploy for credibility, retreating even deeper into fantasy, pretense of reality, pure fantasy, contained within a world of fantasy, retreating into misinformation-fuelled fantasy world, runaway ego, less palatable, self-soothing fantasy bubble, fake statistics, blown deadlines, litany of bullshit, chronic inability, unprecedented publish delusion or deception, having drawn a poor hand, financial-cognitive nightmare, it’s hard to imagine anyone seriously believing that a night of delusional Disney Adult cringe, too childish to call a fraud, Musk’s increasingly-degenerate gambling run is slouching toward one last big coinflip" Some people have a rather unhealthy obsession with Elon Musk, and ought to take a few hours off the Internet and get some sunlight.

jeisc 2y ago

whoever wins the election, Musk is supplying NASA with spaceships for now and the immediate future and next probably will take over Boeing to make self flying personal airplanes

iammjm 2y ago

So does Tesla FSD use cameras to create point clouds in real time with photogrammetry that they then segment and classify via AI and act accordingly, or is it something else entirely?

purplethinking 2y ago
Something else entirely. Similar to an LLM, V12 of FSD is trained on on tens of millions of clips of people driving. The model takes in the history of frames over some period of time and spits out a path for the car to take, conditioned on the route from the regular route planner. As with LLMs, this approach has the benefit that it scales well according to a set scaling law: add more data, add more training and inference compute and your model will get predictably better. Tesla has the ability to sample driving behavior from almost any of its 6+ million cars world wide, based on certain triggers. The video (usually 30 seconds long) is uploaded to Tesla along with the actions that the human driver took during that time. Training a model like this is called Imitation Learning, or Behavior Cloning, and it's all the rage in robotics right now. But Tesla also has direct intervention data from its 0.5m users running FSD. Whenever a user intervenes (by disengaging the system through the steering wheel or brake, or by pressing the gas), the clip gets sent back. Tesla can then train on this clip directly to correct bad behavior, this is called Expert Intervention Learning, and it's mathematically proved to fix certain problems with raw Behavior Cloning.

gabesullice 2y ago

If anyone is going to make self driving work, the odds are stacked in Tesla's favor. They have more data and distribution than any of their competitors. If/when that day comes, a decade—or two—of relentlessly pursuing that goal while making hyper optimistic predictions will be entirely irrelevant. Root for the ambitious… The alternative is to ignore or tear them down. And it doesn't appear to be very fun to be in either of those camps. I literally jumped for joy yesterday when SpaceX achieved a major milestone along their ambitious path. It's been fun following along and cheering for them. I feel similarly excited for Tesla when they demonstrate robots with incredible dexterity. Even if they're not fully autonomous. They will still be a game changer for workplace safety. Imagine sending one up an electrical tower ladder in Alaska to replace a tranformer while an operator uses FPV goggles and gloves to control the robot from an office building in Fairbanks over a Starlink connection. Or a robot enabling a scientist to take ice cores in Antarctica from the warmth of McMurdo Station. This scenario would provide enormous quantities of training data as well. The baseline AI-powered mobility and object avoidance subroutines are enough to make that viable while falling back to remote, human control for 'high resolution', less routine tasks. This same principle applies to robotaxis… And perhaps many Teslas already on the road if they can be retrofitted with the appropriate networking equipment.

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jand 2y ago
> They will still be a game changer for workplace safety. Sure. The robots could be used to distribute shoes and safety equipment to the less fortunate child laborers around the world.
mihaic 2y ago
> Root for the ambitious… The alternative is to ignore or tear them down. Some resources are mostly zero-sum, support being one. That means that buying their product or even buying their stock means not supporting their competitors. At this point, after so many hollow promises from Tesla, why shouldn't the money support plenty of other competitors as well?

evil_genius 2y ago

I think this article does a good job in describing why I always found Tesla's tech demos so jarring. There's a certain amount of "movie magic" that goes into any tech demo to make it work well on stage but Tesla's demos never gave me a sense that what I was seeing would actually line up with how their cars will perform in the real world. You have to be ambitious and aim high in the tech industry, but at some point you have to level out and stop getting high on hype.

purplethinking 2y ago

Musk Derangement Syndrome

ThinkBeat 2y ago

The ending spoilt the story for me. Low quality election propaganda. I am surprised its on the front page, since thankfully election posts are extremely rare. (Thank you for that guys) Arguing the failure to deliver self driving, even though it has been promised repeated and greatly failed is fine. The political rage rant at the end is not. (This of course goes for any side in this election) >"Ultimately, Musk’s increasingly-degenerate gambling run is slouching toward one >last big coinflip: the 2024 presidential election. With Musk going “all-in” on >Donald Trump, and musing that he will end up in a prison cell if Kamala Harris >is elected, it’s clear that his main political issue is his freedom to keep >rolling over his endless confidence game without legal consequences. If Trump >wins and delivers Musk the impunity he craves, the line between amusement park >fantasy and $700 billion self-driving juggernaut will all but disappear, and we >will all find ourselves living in Muskworld’s house of mirrors.

Sammi 2y ago
Doesn't read like a rage rant to me. Reads like a sober assessment of Musks behavior in regards to politics recently. He has gone full Trump fan and Kamala hater. He's become what he says he hates. He's become a demagogue.