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A couple of main issues. In the US. Company EVs are currently not possible because they would be too expensive. The 7.5k IRA discount only applies if car and ba

A couple of main issues. In the US. Company EVs are currently not possible because they would be too expensive. The 7.5k IRA discount only applies if car and battery are manufactured in the USA. Tesla/panasonic is the only large scale battery manufacturer in the US and capacity is tapped out for existing models. Tesla would need to 4x this capacity to sell compact in the US with sufficient volume/margin. Tesla’s Mexico plant will achieve volume production at start of 2026. Second issue Elon messed up. Elon assumed that he would be able to either scale 4680 battery production a lot faster OR FSD would have achieved L4 autonomy by now which would unlock 3x utility of existing fleet via owners lending their car to rideshare when not in personal use. If this happened the need for a compact vehicle would be in theory greatly lessened. Neither happened and Elon has no backup plan. Hence why he is 2-3 years behind BYD in developing a compact EV.

hbarka 3y ago
I remember the time when the Nevada Gigafactory was really hyped up. It was supposed to dwarf even the largest Amazon Distribution Center and the plans were expand it to where you could see its octagonal shape from outer space. It was to be in the size of hundreds of football fields. Planes and drones flown by fanboys hovered over the site and posted weekly updates on how magnificent the progress was, like we were watching a modern-day pyramid endeavor. Of course, it was just another Musk distortion field. Today it’s only at 30% of the fantastical plans. The stock went up though.
- letmevoteplease 3y ago
  According to this list, even its current state, the Nevada Gigafactory has the most floorspace of any warehouse in the world (5.3 million ft², followed by Boeing with 4.3 million ft²). Not entirely unimpressive. https://www.avantauk.com/top-14-largest-warehouses-in-the-world/ https://www.avantauk.com/top-14-largest-warehouses-in-the-wo...
  - hbarka 3y ago
    Tesla does impressive things but are the very definition of hype: Full Self Driving but really lane keeping assist L2 Mother of all factories but really 30% of mother Vacuum-sealed underground tubes capable of moving people en mass at high speed but really a 15mph underground paved road for Tesla cars Linear growth of battery density but stuck on same chemistry Used to have radar but now disabled on cars that have it because vision is like the human eye don’t need anything else
    - pests 3y ago
      aka we don't want to maintain the vision and radar code bases / theyve drifted apart so lets just work on the one everyone has
      - hbarka 3y ago
        There is no drifting apart. If so then there will be full regression to the minimum viable product, the low end Tesla. It was a conscious choice in order to save margin during the chip shortage post-Covid but under the pretext of vision is best. Radar-equipped cars used to be able to see through fog and heavy rain now nerfed.
        pests 3y ago
        I meant they would have had two maintain the logic for vision and radar and new features could be developed for one over the other. Calling it the same thing and trying to support the same settings with both was increasing workload so they decided to just implement the lowest common denominator.
tw04 3y ago
You also forgot stomping on all of his engineers and designers and demanding an untenable design for the cyber truck. All of that wasted time and effort could’ve been spent on a smaller EV vs a truck that’s going to struggle to gain any market share outside of Tesla loyalists.
- mavhc 3y ago
  Can't make a cheap EV until you can make enough cheap batteries
  - SR2Z 3y ago
    No, that's not it. I refuse to buy a new Tesla because of some of the less user friendly (and IMO should be illegal) cost cutting measures: - Horrible QA (https://www.equinoxevforum.com/threads/cracks-developing-in-tesla-gigacastings.662/ https://www.equinoxevforum.com/threads/cracks-developing-in-...) - Extremely customer-hostile support strategies (https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2023/08/angry-tesla-customers-sue-firm-over-grossly-exaggerated-ev-range/ https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2023/08/angry-tesla-cust...) - Absurd cost-cutting measures/temporary bouts of insanity that cripple the UX of their cars: - Why does the Model 3/Y not have steering wheel stalks!? - Why did they try to offer the Model S with only a (bad) yoke!? - Why is there no HUD/gauge cluster on the Model 3/Y!? I won't even get into just how ugly I (and anecdotally, many of my friends) find the Cybertruck; have you SEEN videos of people trying to actually use it as a truck and it completely failing to function offroad? All of this stuff is directly attributable to Elon Musk. He's demanding a 25% stake in the company from his board - the same board that was found to be so absurdly stacked in his favor that his last pay package was thrown out. Shareholders, at this point, should kick this guy out of Tesla and leave him to his true passions: shitposting on Twitter and SpaceX.
    - IshKebab 3y ago
      I agree, not only have they stopped making new sane cars, but they're actively making their existing cars worse! * no indicator stalks * no forward/reverse control * apparently the automatic rain sensor doesn't work/exist (I think that's always been true; I just learned about it) It very much reminds me of Apple's backwards steps with magsafe, touchbar and the keyboard. Maybe they'll come to their senses but I dunno...
rootusrootus 3y ago
> which would unlock 3x utility of existing fleet via owners lending their car to rideshare I still don't understand why anyone ever thought that was going to happen. Even if the autonomy were there, who was really going to use their car for rideshare when they didn't need it themselves? I know some people thought it would bring them a lot of value, because that's what Elon promised. But the reality would have been a classic race-to-the-bottom, and they'd have been lucky to break even after accounting for wear and tear.
- JoshTko 3y ago
  It's not so much most regular people would do rideshare that much. It's more that every new Tesla sold after L4 was achieved would be bought by small biz folks, Uber, etc. specifically to use for rideshare and would pay a premium for both the car and for FSD software.
- pests 3y ago
  It will be awesome when your own car pulls up at 8am to take you to work and there's vomit and trash everywhere, spilled drinks, dirty shoes, stale vape smoke lingering in the air. Sure there might be rules and fines but people already do all this when there is real human driving the taxi! Plus, do you really expect everyone to treat your items with the same respect and care you do? Even little things like slamming the doors or scratching up the seats with metal belts or jean studs. Yeah maybe Tesla will make it right. But at how much effort? How correct will it be fixed?
  - coffeebeqn 3y ago
    And used condoms lol. Maybe a company like Uber would do that and then hose the insides after each day
    - pests 3y ago
      Hose the insides? Lmao. I wonder at what price point you would have to offer the average Tesla owner to let someone puke in their car.
mastazi 3y ago
The IRA discount only applies to the US market, where AFAIK BYD is not even present, right? So it doesn't really explain why Tesla is trailing behind BYD globally. Or maybe your point is "Tesla is not helped by its government as much as BYD is"? Which could be a fair point.
- JoshTko 3y ago
  BYD's volume comes from selling tons of the lower end. My explanation above is why Tesla (Elon) didn't think he needed a compact car. So BYD is killing with compact cars because Tesla does not have one and won't for at least two years.
  - mastazi 3y ago
    Makes sense, thanks for explaining.
  - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
    Model 3 is a compact car by American standards. What Tesla lacks is a sub-compact (think Accord vs Civic).
    - slaw 3y ago
      Model 3 is size of Civic.
      - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
        Between; Model 3: 186″ L x 73″ W x 57″ H Accord: 196″ L x 73″ W x 57″ H Civic: 179-184″ L x 71″ W x 56″ H BMW 4 series: 188-189″ L x 73″ W x 55-57″ H BMW 3 series: 186” 72” 57” I have a garage where that extra inch or two of width is really important.
  - fomine3 3y ago
    It looks like the same as how older American car brands played in worldwide market
pests 3y ago
Level 4 needs a driver outside of the small existing tests involving geofencing. I don't see how anyone would be loaning out their Tesla's for rideshare anytime soon.
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
sgerenser 3y ago
I’m not actually convinced Elon ever thought they’d achieve L4/L5 autonomy in the timelines he originally proposed. I think it was all a ploy to pump the stock and sell more cars. And it worked.
- FirmwareBurner 3y ago
  > I think it was all a ploy to pump the stock and sell more cars. I wonder why a CEO lying to pump his stock is not yet illegal. Otherwise what's topping Sundar to come out and say "Google will have AGI in 6 months, buy Alphabet stonks wink-wink". > And it worked. I know, because a couple of my friends put all their saving in TSLA stocks during the pandemic. And all it cost Elon was his credibility and being exposed as a clueless liar to the point if he'd say the sky is blue, I'd double check.

hbarka 3y ago

I remember the time when the Nevada Gigafactory was really hyped up. It was supposed to dwarf even the largest Amazon Distribution Center and the plans were expand it to where you could see its octagonal shape from outer space. It was to be in the size of hundreds of football fields. Planes and drones flown by fanboys hovered over the site and posted weekly updates on how magnificent the progress was, like we were watching a modern-day pyramid endeavor. Of course, it was just another Musk distortion field. Today it’s only at 30% of the fantastical plans. The stock went up though.

letmevoteplease 3y ago
According to this list, even its current state, the Nevada Gigafactory has the most floorspace of any warehouse in the world (5.3 million ft², followed by Boeing with 4.3 million ft²). Not entirely unimpressive. https://www.avantauk.com/top-14-largest-warehouses-in-the-world/ https://www.avantauk.com/top-14-largest-warehouses-in-the-wo...
- hbarka 3y ago
  Tesla does impressive things but are the very definition of hype: Full Self Driving but really lane keeping assist L2 Mother of all factories but really 30% of mother Vacuum-sealed underground tubes capable of moving people en mass at high speed but really a 15mph underground paved road for Tesla cars Linear growth of battery density but stuck on same chemistry Used to have radar but now disabled on cars that have it because vision is like the human eye don’t need anything else
  - pests 3y ago
    aka we don't want to maintain the vision and radar code bases / theyve drifted apart so lets just work on the one everyone has
    - hbarka 3y ago
      There is no drifting apart. If so then there will be full regression to the minimum viable product, the low end Tesla. It was a conscious choice in order to save margin during the chip shortage post-Covid but under the pretext of vision is best. Radar-equipped cars used to be able to see through fog and heavy rain now nerfed.
      - pests 3y ago
        I meant they would have had two maintain the logic for vision and radar and new features could be developed for one over the other. Calling it the same thing and trying to support the same settings with both was increasing workload so they decided to just implement the lowest common denominator.

tw04 3y ago

You also forgot stomping on all of his engineers and designers and demanding an untenable design for the cyber truck. All of that wasted time and effort could’ve been spent on a smaller EV vs a truck that’s going to struggle to gain any market share outside of Tesla loyalists.

mavhc 3y ago
Can't make a cheap EV until you can make enough cheap batteries
- SR2Z 3y ago
  No, that's not it. I refuse to buy a new Tesla because of some of the less user friendly (and IMO should be illegal) cost cutting measures: - Horrible QA (https://www.equinoxevforum.com/threads/cracks-developing-in-tesla-gigacastings.662/ https://www.equinoxevforum.com/threads/cracks-developing-in-...) - Extremely customer-hostile support strategies (https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2023/08/angry-tesla-customers-sue-firm-over-grossly-exaggerated-ev-range/ https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2023/08/angry-tesla-cust...) - Absurd cost-cutting measures/temporary bouts of insanity that cripple the UX of their cars: - Why does the Model 3/Y not have steering wheel stalks!? - Why did they try to offer the Model S with only a (bad) yoke!? - Why is there no HUD/gauge cluster on the Model 3/Y!? I won't even get into just how ugly I (and anecdotally, many of my friends) find the Cybertruck; have you SEEN videos of people trying to actually use it as a truck and it completely failing to function offroad? All of this stuff is directly attributable to Elon Musk. He's demanding a 25% stake in the company from his board - the same board that was found to be so absurdly stacked in his favor that his last pay package was thrown out. Shareholders, at this point, should kick this guy out of Tesla and leave him to his true passions: shitposting on Twitter and SpaceX.
  - IshKebab 3y ago
    I agree, not only have they stopped making new sane cars, but they're actively making their existing cars worse! * no indicator stalks * no forward/reverse control * apparently the automatic rain sensor doesn't work/exist (I think that's always been true; I just learned about it) It very much reminds me of Apple's backwards steps with magsafe, touchbar and the keyboard. Maybe they'll come to their senses but I dunno...

rootusrootus 3y ago

> which would unlock 3x utility of existing fleet via owners lending their car to rideshare I still don't understand why anyone ever thought that was going to happen. Even if the autonomy were there, who was really going to use their car for rideshare when they didn't need it themselves? I know some people thought it would bring them a lot of value, because that's what Elon promised. But the reality would have been a classic race-to-the-bottom, and they'd have been lucky to break even after accounting for wear and tear.

JoshTko 3y ago
It's not so much most regular people would do rideshare that much. It's more that every new Tesla sold after L4 was achieved would be bought by small biz folks, Uber, etc. specifically to use for rideshare and would pay a premium for both the car and for FSD software.
pests 3y ago
It will be awesome when your own car pulls up at 8am to take you to work and there's vomit and trash everywhere, spilled drinks, dirty shoes, stale vape smoke lingering in the air. Sure there might be rules and fines but people already do all this when there is real human driving the taxi! Plus, do you really expect everyone to treat your items with the same respect and care you do? Even little things like slamming the doors or scratching up the seats with metal belts or jean studs. Yeah maybe Tesla will make it right. But at how much effort? How correct will it be fixed?
- coffeebeqn 3y ago
  And used condoms lol. Maybe a company like Uber would do that and then hose the insides after each day
  - pests 3y ago
    Hose the insides? Lmao. I wonder at what price point you would have to offer the average Tesla owner to let someone puke in their car.

mastazi 3y ago

The IRA discount only applies to the US market, where AFAIK BYD is not even present, right? So it doesn't really explain why Tesla is trailing behind BYD globally. Or maybe your point is "Tesla is not helped by its government as much as BYD is"? Which could be a fair point.

JoshTko 3y ago
BYD's volume comes from selling tons of the lower end. My explanation above is why Tesla (Elon) didn't think he needed a compact car. So BYD is killing with compact cars because Tesla does not have one and won't for at least two years.
- mastazi 3y ago
  Makes sense, thanks for explaining.
- seanmcdirmid 3y ago
  Model 3 is a compact car by American standards. What Tesla lacks is a sub-compact (think Accord vs Civic).
  - slaw 3y ago
    Model 3 is size of Civic.
    - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
      Between; Model 3: 186″ L x 73″ W x 57″ H Accord: 196″ L x 73″ W x 57″ H Civic: 179-184″ L x 71″ W x 56″ H BMW 4 series: 188-189″ L x 73″ W x 55-57″ H BMW 3 series: 186” 72” 57” I have a garage where that extra inch or two of width is really important.
- fomine3 3y ago
  It looks like the same as how older American car brands played in worldwide market

pests 3y ago

Level 4 needs a driver outside of the small existing tests involving geofencing. I don't see how anyone would be loaning out their Tesla's for rideshare anytime soon.

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

sgerenser 3y ago

I’m not actually convinced Elon ever thought they’d achieve L4/L5 autonomy in the timelines he originally proposed. I think it was all a ploy to pump the stock and sell more cars. And it worked.

FirmwareBurner 3y ago
> I think it was all a ploy to pump the stock and sell more cars. I wonder why a CEO lying to pump his stock is not yet illegal. Otherwise what's topping Sundar to come out and say "Google will have AGI in 6 months, buy Alphabet stonks wink-wink". > And it worked. I know, because a couple of my friends put all their saving in TSLA stocks during the pandemic. And all it cost Elon was his credibility and being exposed as a clueless liar to the point if he'd say the sky is blue, I'd double check.