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The (small) upside of all this missery, death and pain is Europe will lose some territory but gain it's own military security after decades of living from the U
by KingOfCoders 3y ago
The (small) upside of all this missery, death and pain is Europe will lose some territory but gain it's own military security after decades of living from the US strategy alignment. Countries like Poland will no longer buy US weapons but increase European defense spending - they fear just like Ukraine that US congress just turns around and will stop delivering parts for F-35s in a conflict [0]. The US lost all it's trust that was left in Europe.
We just need to get our act together, not every country building or buying it's own incompatible weapons (like tanks, planes, frigates). The war in Ukraine shows how bad it is to run a war with ten different models of tanks etc.
And we can - at last - close Ramstein, Landstuhl and Weilerbach in Germany, no longer supporting US wars in the Middle East and beyond.
Living as a kid through the 70s and 80s with the PershingII/NATO Double-Track Decision I also would not have thought this threat is coming back the way it did.
[0] I'm sure Germany will not proceed on it's $10b F-35 plans
- matthewaveryusa 3y ago[flagged]
- swarnie 3y agoI hate this "Europe" generalisation... Are you talking about the UK, Spain or Romania? Some have met their spending targets, others didn't suck on the Russki gas pipe. If you want to say Germany, just say Germany.
- matthewaveryusa 3y ago1973 Europe. We all know post 2000 countries were for the economic zone (Poland is an interesting case, but Germany never considered them trusted partners, building their gas pipelines around and not through PL) So what about Romania? Looking at it from a European security standpoint they only need to be aligned to the mission
- miroljub 3y ago> Yes, close those US bases, such a smart strategic move Finally something that Europeans and Americans can agree about. Just GTFO from Europe and never ever come back. We don't need you, you don't need us. The world will be a better place when Native Americans regain their land and get rid of the dominance of the descendants of the European colonists.
- Vt71fcAqt7 3y ago>The world will be a better place when Native Americans regain their land Do you hold similar opinions for other continents?
- miroljub 3y agoYes. The difference is that natives regained the majority of their land in other continents. North America and Australia being the worst offenders with their unlawful apartheid regimes.
- tokai 3y agoThe only ones that has ever activated article 5 is the US, and all the European allies answered the call. So who is the beggar here? Budget percentages is a mirage and not a serious way to discuss actual engagement in NATO.
- lifestyleguru 3y ago[flagged]
- kmac_ 3y agoInteresting statement. Sources please.
- lifestyleguru 3y agoIf I had insight into confidential information, I would be busy commuting between my real estate in Spain, Switzerland, and Dubai, instead of arguing with you.
- kmac_ 3y agoWithout sources, it's simply slander.
- jacquesm 3y agoI don't think anybody thought that it would, but here we are. It is quite amazing how time and again we seem to enable little narcissistic men to gain hold of positions of power. And I can't even really complain because NL has Geert Wilders to deal with right now and his foaming-at-the-mouth band of supporters who believe that everything that is wrong with this country can be traced back to immigration. On top of that they believe that this is the fault of 'the left', when in fact we haven't had a left wing government since I was riding a 16" wheeled bicycle.
- KingOfCoders 3y agoSame in Germany, and Germans should know better.
- jacquesm 3y agoEvery Western European country, the US, Japan, Australia and tons of other territories should know better.
- funcDropShadow 3y agoBut Germany has a left-wing government. And it is pushing this week to enact a law to prohibit speech that is not extreme enough to be against the constitution or otherwise criminal.
- cglace 3y agoThe US has provided more funding to Ukraine than the world combined by a large margin, and the lesson you take away is that the US is somehow at fault. The one bill that was blocked by Congress would be more support than Europe as a whole has provided to Ukraine to date. While I agree that European countries should start to take their defense seriously I don't see how you fault US support of Ukraine.
- matsemann 3y agoIn terms of % GDP, USA is quite far down the list.
- KingOfCoders 3y agoAnd in % of military budget, it's near the end of the list.
- cglace 3y agoWell, of course, do you think the US is going to donate its aircraft carriers, F-35s, F-22s, B-2s, and nuke subs to Ukraine? The US isn't spending trillions on artillery rounds.
- pb7 3y agoIt’s not the US’s fault Europe spends so little on defense. You reap what you sow. If you get rolled, that’s on you and your poor planning hoping Daddy USA is going to play world police. We remember the decades of mocking for our choice of investing in defense. Enjoy your “free” healthcare while it lasts.
- KingOfCoders 3y ago"It’s not the US’s fault Europe spends so little on defense." Exactly! This crisis will probably bring nukes to Poland and hopefully Germany (Macron offered nukes several times, to safe costs, the German public sadly is anti-nuke) to make the EU independent of US protection. We then can close Ramstein, Landstuhl and Weilerbach and close air corridors for US military machines to no longer support US wars in the Middle East. European countries will stop buying US weapons and create jobs in Europe instead of US voting districts.
- matsemann 3y ago> The US lost all it's trust that was left in Europe Trump winning, with his comments about encouraging Russia to attack NATO countries, would not do much to help.
- ethbr1 3y ago> they fear just like Ukraine that US congress just turns around and will stop delivering parts for F-35s in a conflict. This is an interesting read on the US sending more than half ($47.38b / $88.94b) [0] of the total worldwide military aid allocated so far to Ukraine. [0] https://www.ifw-kiel.de/publications/ukraine-support-tracker-data-20758/ https://www.ifw-kiel.de/publications/ukraine-support-tracker...
- dboreham 3y agoSuspect parent is thinking of another perfect call in the future.
- odiroot 3y ago> Countries like Poland will no longer buy US weapons but increase European defense spending - they fear just like Ukraine that US congress just turns around and will stop delivering parts for F-35s in a conflict That's absolutely not the sentiments among Poles. If anything, there's a belief we can only rely on US when poo hits the fan.
- belter 3y agoLooking at it historically, you are going to be short changed again... Suddenly the following scenario, is not far fetched anymore: Russia will find an excuse around Kaliningrad Oblast, and a NATO hostile US president will negotiate a cease fire in the name of stopping a Nuclear conflict...
- Wytwwww 3y agoTo be fair modern Russia is not exactly the USSR or Nazi Germany (let alone both of them put together). Their army was decimated (huge understatement) in Ukraine. Their demographic situation was pretty bad before the war. But now? If you combine the massive casualties (more than the US lost in Vietnam during over 15 years AND the Soviet war in Afghanistan (10 years)) with the exodus of working age males how can they ever recover? It's an extremely cynical take but US + EU can pretty much afford to "wage" this war indefinitely as long they give just enough to Ukraine for it not to collapse and both sides continue throwing their men into the grinder. Russia is on a timer; it might take an extra few years and even if they don't run out of shells they'll run out of soldiers sooner or later (of course unfortunately the same applies to Ukraine..).
- KingOfCoders 3y agoAs I've said, when the Suwałki Gap falls and the US stands by - and the US will under Trump - sentiments will turn 180°. Poland hoped the UK would safe them from Germany and Russia and was betrayed. Poland now hopes the US would safe them from Russia, and they will be betrayed.
- selimthegrim 3y ago
- infecto 3y agoI get so tired of these sentiments. Without a doubt the US pushes its might around the world BUT in the case of Europe, European countries do not have the willpower to create a military like the US's. How did the US lose all its trust? Damned if you do, damned if you don't. Europe was frolicking around for decades, most countries with no real economy and making many mistakes a long the way regarding energy security.
- KingOfCoders 3y ago"European countries do not have the willpower to create a military like the US's." Yes, not yet, except Macron. "long the way regarding energy security." Germany is switching to US LNG as fast as it can just for the US to signal it will no longer support LNG in Europe. This kind of energy security? [0] [0] https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-lng-export-pause-leaves-eu-industry-odds-over-energy-security-2024-02-02/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-lng-export-pause-...
- inglor_cz 3y agoThe French military will likely continue to be bogged down in Africa, given that the situation there is pretty dire and French vital interests are threatened. The French betrayed Czechoslovakia in 1938, then got steamrolled by the Wehrmacht themselves, and their credibility in Central and Eastern Europe has been shot ever since.
- infecto 3y agoI don't think the US stance on limiting LNG export for its own security is a valid defense. Europe/France/Germany made many mistakes before that by shutting off generation plants before having secured long term resources.
- data_maan 3y agoWe weren't frolicking, we were peacefully consuming Apple's wonderful technology, cursing at Microsoft's abysmal OS, and other great product from Silicon Valley ;)
- 3y ago
- banku_brougham 3y agothis is very hopeful to me. as an american who is aware of whats going on its been discouraging to see my govt consistently spreading evil through the decades
- chewz 3y ago> Countries like Poland will no longer buy US weapons but increase European defense spending - they fear just like Ukraine that US congress just turns around This isn't how it works. You buy expensive and unnecessary weapon system from US not because thye are any good but because this is your designated protection fee. After you spend several bilion dollars US feels more obliged to help... Just a racket..
- slashdev 3y ago[flagged]
- empath-nirvana 3y ago> Western powers were wrong to encourage Ukraine to fight Russia instead of agreeing to ceasefire terms. This is not what happened. The US, in fact, tried to get Zelensky to flee and told them that they were going to lose and didn't really offer any aid until _after_ Ukraine fought Russia to a standstill. There have never been any ceasefire terms from Russia. Which has, FWIW been fighting in Ukraine since 2014.
- slashdev 3y agoThat was early on. Later on, when there was a potential ceasefire deal on the table, the West, especially Boris Johnson, advised Ukraine not to accept it. Look it up. > Russia was ready to end the war and withdraw its troops in exchange for Ukrainian neutrality just a few months after the invasion began and was refused partly because of ex-British PM Boris Johnson, who pressured Kyiv into continuing the fight, David Arahamiya, the leader of Ukraine’s ruling party confirmed in a recent interview, published on Friday, November 24th.
- empath-nirvana 3y agoThere was never a ceasefire deal on the table.
- slashdev 3y agoPerhaps you’re right, but you offer no evidence in the contrary
- actionfromafar 3y ago"Our Kiev invasion went badly, please stop shooting at us while we regroup". Kremlin ceasefire.
- strictnein 3y agoGermany will buy its F-35s. Poland will start taking delivery of its HIMARS from the US starting next year and will continue to order US hardware. As part of the deals that Poland and Germany signed, they will be ramping up local production to support the systems they are buying. One thing you're missing in lots of your predictions is that Ukraine had no US military presence. Poland does. There's 10k US troops in Poland right now. There's zero chance other European countries will be closing US military bases with the looming threat from Russia.
- KingOfCoders 3y ago"Germany will buy its F-35s" No. Germany needs those F-35 only for delivering nukes ("Nukleare Teilhabe") [0] replacing aging Tornados in that role. With Trump as the next president I don't think you find a German politician (except the far left and far right) who thinks sharing nukes with the US is working any longer. I'd think Germany will rather take French nukes instead of using US nukes in the future. "There's zero chance other European countries will be closing US military bases with the looming threat from Russia." With a US president shouting "Russia, go, invade Germany, rape, plunder and torture with my blessing" - US bases will all be shut in the coming decades. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_sharing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_sharing
- data_maan 3y agoI'm pretty sure Trump didn't say "rape" (source?).
- Lutger 3y agoHe said Russia can do what it wants. Given Russia's track record, rape will not be the worst of offenses.
- Wytwwww 3y ago> With a US president shouting Depending on what happens with the congress. There are still some semi-sane (concerning foreign policy) Republicans in the Senate of course they'll probably struggle a lot more with manipulating him/keeping him inline like in his first term. But I guess it's not unlikely that the democrats will lose both the senate and the house if Biden manages to lose. So yeah...
- justin66 3y ago> Countries like Poland will no longer buy US weapons but increase European defense spending One assumes Poland would actually like someone to fulfill those orders in a timely manner, so perhaps not. Germany can afford to "spend" money on weapons and then not produce anything, but it's not going to work for Poland.
- KingOfCoders 3y agoPoland will not get spare parts for its F-35 in a conflict under Trump, or more likely be blackmailed for higher prices or other concessions. Or the software will stop working and they need to pay to make it work again. Trump would love that. The only way for Poland to be safe is having military production in its own country. Because it's easier if everyone has the same weapons, I it should join Airbus and KMW+NEXTER and get production facilities on it's own land. As seen with AstraZeneca you need physical control to be safe.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- DyslexicAtheist 3y agowhy rant and rave against US? This isn't 2012 post-Snowden era of "friends don't spy on friends". The US are not the enemy here but our long-term ally. Right now Russia, China, the Assad regime, and IRGC are. > We just need to get our act together, not every country building or buying it's own incompatible weapons (like tanks, planes, frigates). If "we" means Europe I agree, that "we" need to reintroduce mandatory military service, prepare to fight Russia and its allies on their own turf, defend against Russian terrorists on our own turf. Ans most importantly we must wage war against pro-Russian mouthpieces in our own countries, e.g. Geert Wilders, Marine Lepen, Meloni, Bjorn Hoecke and AfD, the entire Orban government, current Slovakian regime, and anyone who takes money from Putin and spouting their propaganda. War is already here in Europe. It's just unequally distributed.
- the_why_of_y 3y agoAgree with your list of pro-Russian populists, except Meloni doesn't appear to be pro-Russian, in Italy it's rather Salvini (Lega Nord) and Berlusconi (Forza Italia).
- roguas 3y agoI don't think Poland is very doubtful towards US(some is always welcome). We have strong ties and generally are on extremely good terms with US compared to other western countries. As for weapons, well its a market situation, sometimes perhaps having non-us weapon systems is actually better.
- mupuff1234 3y ago> no longer supporting US wars in the Middle East and beyond. A lot of these wars are connected - Russia is working with Iran and North Korea (and China to some extent) Thinking Europe should only care about what happens in their backyard while criticizing the US for not caring enough about Europe's backyard seems hypocritical.
- nonethewiser 3y agoThere was never any chance that the US would fund Ukraine indefinitely. NATO countries arent going to do a 180 based on this. Perhaps they will start contributing the amount towards NATO that they themselves pledged though.
- ffgjgf1 3y ago> Europe will lose some territory To be fair it never had that territory in the first place. Prior to 2014 Ukraine was clearly under Russian influence and Western Europeans countries never had any serious thoughts about somehow “taking it over” (despite what putin & al. are saying ) > gain it's own military security I’m really not sure most Europeans countries (besides those that are very close to Russia like Poland, the Baltics, Finland etc.) are that keen about massively increasing their military spending. Certainly not even close to what US is currently providing.
- lo_zamoyski 3y ago> Countries like Poland will no longer buy US weapons but increase European defense spending - they fear just like Ukraine that US congress just turns around and will stop delivering parts for F-35s in a conflict Other pluses: American equipment is expensive. The recent purchase from S. Korea is significantly cheaper and IIRC entails a partnership agreement that requires that at least some of the manufacturing happens domestically in Poland. This allows the S. Korean defense industry to establish a base of operation in Europe. Also, the Polish armed forces have been investing in a diversity of equipment (American, EU, S. Korean, and domestic) for some time, which, of course, means they're not too dependent on a single country.
- EasyMark 3y agoI think you are on to something. While I consider NATO will hold together, it would certainly avail the EU countries to build a military of similar capability to the US to thwart Russia's ambitions of conquering all of east Europe. It is best to hedge against that, particularly with the rise of MAGA fascism (and its alliance with Russia) in the USA. I feel it will peak when Donald Trump loses in the Fall but there is no guarantee of any of that.
- dang 3y agoWe detached this subthread from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39395935 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39395935 - not a criticism of the comment; I just need to prune the top-heavy thread.
- wolverine876 3y ago> Europe will lose some territory but gain it's own military security after decades of living from the US strategy alignment. Why would that be the outcome? Why wouldn't it result in European countries wanting more US involvement? Who wouldn't want the most powerful country in the world on their side, as their ally? Also, I strongly disagree with the idea that separately, the US and Europe are somehow stronger. Separately, countries end up in conflict - Europe's own history shows it especially, and that's one of the primary, intentional reasons for NATO and the EU. Together they are far more powerful - NATO is far more powerful than any country alone, including the US. The EU - which for all its flaws is, if you step back and look from an historical perspective, arguably the greatest international organization in history - still lacks effective, unified international relations. Decisions require unanimity, which is hard for a small organization, and now they have dozens of members. Kissinger famously said (iirc), 'if I have to call Europe, who do I call?' They don't yet have the political structure and institutions to conduct international relations as whole. Finally, power in international relations ultimately flows from wealth and population. If China continues to grow, it could have an economy twice the size of the EU's (or US's) within decades, and India has potential for similar growth. Together, the US and EU offer a much stronger balance.