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You may not have a choice in the matter as more and more countries are thinking of/implementing ICE bans in the near future.
by Akronymus 4y ago
You may not have a choice in the matter as more and more countries are thinking of/implementing ICE bans in the near future.
- bearmode 4y agoICE bans won't prevent people from buying used cars.
- 0xy 4y agoThey're unlikely to succeed because if the massive tax on poor people (ICE bans) actually gets implemented, all of the poor people who are forced to buy an unaffordable EV will vote for populists promising to unwind the bans.
- missingdays 4y agoNot all countries are car-centric as USA
- rootusrootus 4y agoThat's objectively true because it's an absolute. Most advanced nations are pretty much car-dependent, however.
- nicoburns 4y agoThey’re only banning sales of new EVs in the short term, and poor people don’t buy new cars anyway. By the time they are buying EVs, they’ll be much cheaper.
- j16sdiz 4y agoI doubt this. The manufacturer are pushing subscription-base model. Used electric car won't become cheap
- nicoburns 4y agoManufacturers are also pushing this for ICE cars, so that’s not really a differentiation point between ICEs and electric. Hopefully we will get legislation to tame this trend for cars and other goods.
- mavhc 4y agoWhen I bought my used EV there were 2 options: Leaf or Zoe. As a high percentage of Zoe's had rented batteries, and the websites didn't have a filter for that, I didn't even bother test driving one.
- scire 4y agoYou missed out - they’re giving away the batteries for almost nothing now to get rid of the lease. Mine was manufactured in 2011 (!) and is still at 93% of its original 22 kWh rated capacity after doing 90.000km, which is amazing compared to a Leaf.
- bluGill 4y agoI doubt that. They are trying the subscription model, but used car drivers are more price sensitive and are likely to not fall for it. If the car doesn't have a lifetime subscription included used car drivers will soon get the word out don't buy that car. Car manufactures depend on their cars having a good resale value - people who buy new cars tend to trade them in every 3 years, and that only works out because the car has value to someone else. It will take time for this to work out in the market. BMW is small enough to trick people, but the large car makers are not.
- wahern 4y agoAt least in the U.S., poor people buy used cars, while existing and proposed ICE bans effect new car sales. Any real economic effect will be delayed until after the ban, and in any event they'll still be buying used cars. I suppose used EVs might end up costing more, but they might end up costing less. Also, the immediate effect of bans might actually be to create a glut of cheap, used ICE cars. None of that implies less risk of a populist backlash, though; not for any class of 'mericans, rich or poor.
- Loughla 4y agoAt least in the US, poor people used to but used cars, until the used car market tanked in 2021 or so. Now they buy new, but finance for 84+ months.
- doetoe 4y agoIsn't it populist to call this a tax on poor people?
- otabdeveloper4 4y agoIt's not populist to call things what they really are.
- earthscienceman 4y agoYou know how I know you aren't poor? You think anyone in the bottom quartile will buy a new car. This is hardly a regressive policy. It directly targets the wealthier populations. That said, in the interest of honest debate, it will shift the used car market prices significantly initially until supply of used EVs spins up. Although this is very secondary.
- AtlasBarfed 4y agoPartly the use market exists in ICE because there isn't really a cheap new ICE, but with stuff like sodium ions and the fundamental simplicity of the EV drivetrain, what I think is going to happen is that you're going to get a much wider range of electric cars that will suit a lot more modes of transportation and people won't have to use old ICE Used cars to get around. I think it's going to happen is essentially you're going to get like a $10,000 new EV you can buy that's going to be cheaper to use energywise/ fuel-wise than a clunker ice. I think the driver this will be the Chinese / India markets where you have basically two to three billion people that will want cars at that price point and that stuff will eventually make its way into the US
- geysersam 4y agoIt's less populist and more a talking point. It's the perfect cover. "We can't stop allowing the rich to destroy the climate because we care so much about poor people." In '35 it's doubtful ICE will be cheaper than EV anyway (look at price development over last decade...) Banning ICE will speed up this development. Climate change will disproportionately affect people who are already vulnerable. Tax carbon emissions and use the money to provide good affordable alternatives (public transportation) for people who don't afford an EV today.
- EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK 4y agoPoor people drive buses, not cars.
- lilililililili 4y ago[dead]
- thecopy 4y agoThis might be true in USA where society have built itself to be almost fully dependent on cars. As a non-american: I have not owned a car in 10 years. You are not forced to have to own a car by some force of nature.
- asdfman123 4y ago> You are not forced to have to own a car Well, no, but > society have built itself to be almost fully dependent on cars
- bluGill 4y agoYou don't state where you live, but odds are good your country is mostly car dependent. Sure transit is useful for a few (10%) of people who live in the city, but if you look at the numbers in almost every country cars are the vast majority of transport if the country is rich enough to afford them. If the country isn't that rich you will see other things, but as they become richer they become car dependent.
- rootusrootus 4y agoFor what it's worth, you might find this list handy the next time you find yourself in a discussion about car dependence and how it varies across the world. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_vehicles_per_capita https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_vehicles_...
- matsemann 4y agoIn much of the world, owning a car at all puts you above "poor people". While owning a car is sadly needed in some parts of the world to get to work or even the stores (US..), it's a massive financial burden for most people. If you care for poor people, thinking about how people can go about their daily lives without spending thousands of dollars each year on owning a car would be the way to go.
- asdfman123 4y agoIf a comment on hackernews seems like it’s only written about the US, then it probably is.
- bluGill 4y agoIf you can afford a car you are not poor. In the US (and Europe) there are almost no poor people. What we call poor are still middle class by world standards.
- adrianmonk 4y agoThis is getting away from the relevant definition of poor. The person above was talking about how people will vote, so what matters here is whether they're poor relative to other voters within their own country.
- nicoburns 4y ago> If you can afford a car you are not poor I'm not sure I agree with this. In many parts of the US or Europe, you could easily be in a position where you can afford a car (and need one for work), but cannot afford housing. It's true that you might well still be well off by world standards (a car roof is still a roof), but I think I'd require "food, clean water, clothing and reliable shelter" to be a bare minimum for "not poor".
- wcoenen 4y agoThe cheap EVs aren't here yet, but the technology has the potential to eventually become cheaper than ICE. 30% of EV cost is currently in the battery, and this will drop.
- rob74 4y agoThis! I mean, we saw the same with computing: the first PCs cost thousands of dollars, but by the start of the nineties they were much more affordable already. Mostly because of technology advances and mass production, but of course also because of moving chip/board production to cheaper countries. Same with mobile phones, smartphones, laptops etc. etc.
- zirgs 4y agoPCs still cost thousands of dollars. If you are interested in AI/machine learning then $2k is the bare minimum.
- 76SlashDolphin 4y agoNah, a GTX 1060 6GB for $100 + any 10-year old i5/i7 is still surprisingly capable for messing about with ML. It's not fast but it gets the job done. Also, getting free compute for messing around in, say, Google Cloud is still pretty easy. If you get to the point where those 2 options become a bottleneck, you're probably informed enough to find work in the field and afford something nicer.
- bluGill 4y agoPeople interested in AI/machine learning are a small niche. Your AI/machine learning computer is about as interesting to most people as large agriculture sprayer is to your average car buyer.
- adrianN 4y agoMy PC cost about 400€ and I'm a professional user. Most people are fine with the capabilities of a Raspberry Pi.
- HopenHeyHi 4y agoPeople don't always manage to vote their interests even if/when they manage to rationally identify what those are. Welcome to politics.
- goodpoint 4y ago> massive tax on poor people (ICE bans) Don't blame EV and or the environment for this. Car culture in the US created unsustainable cities and destroyed public transportation. Car ownership itself has always been a regressive tax.
- jaystraw 4y agoICEs also supplement power grids and enable agriculture. The car is not the centerpiece of fossil fuels helping the poor
- zip1234 4y agoThe very poorest don't even drive and are also disproportionately impacted by pollution from driving. The strata above that buys used cars.
- rootusrootus 4y agoThe poorest folks I know are driving used Bolts. Money talks. Aside from the recent pandemic-fueled car price bubble, compliance EVs were really cheap on the used market.
- censor_me 4y ago[dead]
- paganel 4y agoWe do have a choice because, on paper, we do have a choice in choosing those countries’ politicians. I know I’ll never give my vote to a politician keen on banning gasoline cars. It’s sadly also true that the technocrats actually taking those decisions are a lot less directly accountable, but nothing that a second “yellow vests” movement won’t be able to fix.
- solarengineer 4y agoCould you help us understand why you would like to keep buying gasoline cars? (Edit: I see that you are being down voted. Perhaps elaborating on your desire to continue to be able to buy gasoline cars might help clarify your position better)
- nickpp 4y agoSome people like freedom of choice, I guess. Like in a democracy, where you can vote whatever candidate you like, except here is with your wallet. Others like dictatures.
- goodpoint 4y agoICE produce proven carcinogenic pollutants. Your freedom to intoxicate other people goes against their freedom to remain unharmed. (Not to mention noise, environmental damage, geopolitical risks surrounding oil... all well proven stuff)
- nickpp 4y agoOh, I am no fan of ICE engines, at all. Hate them, personally. But I know how harmful heavy handed-mandates can be. I have seen the damage such mandates have already made in other instances with voters being then easily recruited and radicalized by populist politicians. This is a delicate issue, already highly politicized and deeply hypocritical for both sides. Completely curtailing people’s freedoms is not the way to approach it, if you want to change anything.
- 4y ago
- mmikeff 4y agoNot banning per se, just stopping sales of new. So there will still be plenty of used ICE cars knocking around for a good few years.
- foepys 4y agoWill there be gas stations, though?
- century19 4y agoAnd will there be enough power stations to generate all the electricity?
- mavhc 4y agoYes, but what will they be powered by?
- xerxiii 4y agonot sure why you're so confident of that when we don't even produce enough power for our current needs let alone powering millions of cars
- rootusrootus 4y agoHow much more generation do we actually need. For one, charging typically does not happen when the grid is at peak load, so a lot of spare capacity is available. Second, it takes approximately the same amount of energy to refine a tank of gasoline as it does to completely charge an EV, so it'll be a wash.
- prox 4y agoIf it’s like how analog photography shops were going, no not really. Perhaps you will get specialized shops for fuel and biofuels?
- Tade0 4y ago
- nixass 4y agoNo, not for another ~15 years and then I'll still be able to buy ICE car. EVs in current state are not so good and what's even worse new ICE cars are becoming shittier and shittier because of restrictions imposing on them
- pelorat 4y agoIn ~15 years if you buy an ICE you also need to afford the gas.
- bsaul 4y agoin 15 years there will be so few ice cars on the roads that gas could very well be cheaper than electricity. Finding a gas station may be problematic ( although i doubt truck will move to electricity that soon)
- Moldoteck 4y agoI would say it depends on the country. Russia is still a major exporter of petroleum goods and can make the price very appealing to it's neighbors (but yeah, after they started the war, the situation is not so strightforward)
- frant-hartm 4y agoAverage car age in US and EU is somewhere around 12 years. EVs are still a minority (growing, but less than 50 % and it will stay that way for a few years). Most of the ICE cars sold now will be on the roads in 15 years.
- vardump 4y agoAt some point dramatically lower demand will start to push the gas price higher.
- bluGill 4y agoNot really because some amount of a barrel of oil is gasoline. The other uses of oil will still want their fraction and be willing to pay. The refineries will need to get rid of the parts of the crude that doesn't have a market to sell to the market they have. There will of course be much less refineries. The other uses of oil are small niches, and so the world needs one-two small refinery to supply their needs. So there will be price shocks as the large refineries close.
- theK 4y agoI’m afraid these bans get systematically sabotaged by well funded ice lobby groups. Just look at what happened to the EU’s ice ban for personal vehicles. Spoiler: while new gasoline burning cars are technically banned after 2035 it will be completely legal to sell new gasoline burning cars by labelling them e-fuel only…
- geysersam 4y agoWhy would anyone want to use e-fuel in 2035 instead of electricity? (Except for "luxury" brands that just want to be special to distinguish themselves from the rabble.)
- mdp2021 4y ago> Why would anyone want to use e-fuel in 2035 instead of electricity It will depend on their needs and if the device covers them. For example (as said already even here): long distance travel, practicality of refuelling (no, the need of some will not be fulfilled by leaving the car in charge nightly), decent technology (e.g. some will refuse to own an internet connected vehicle).
- dalyons 4y agoLong distance and refueling will be solved by 2035. They’re close now. I’m will to bet all new gas cars are going to be internet connect too, it’s already heading that way, and has little to do with EVs
- mdp2021 4y ago> I’m will to bet all new gas cars ... little to do Would you drive them? Would you own an internet connected door, vehicle, pacemaker? Some would rather find the keys out of the asylum. You say «little to do», but the point was that we are informed of «gas cars» without wireless connection, whereas word is that for some reason all electric vehicles seem to be. We know that some «gas cars» are spared, but they say all electric ones will be bound to the wave of improper engineering, so this defines some hope or way out for the traditional making and rules out the new one.
- Scarblac 4y agoThere may still be a choice, I'm preparing to go carless in a few years.
- VWWHFSfQ 4y agoIt won't happen in USA until a majority of chips and EV batteries required can be reliably produced and sourced domestically. Until that point the continued production and sale of new ICEs will still be required as a matter of national security.
- loeg 4y agoAlmost no one is banning existing ICE vehicles on the road; just sales of new ICE models.
- dghughes 4y agoThat's great but it seems prices of all new cars and especially EVS even with rebates are astronomically high. I don't need launch control, giant screens, self drive etc. just a basic EV under $30K with standard dash gauges.