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China stages 'strike drills' around Taiwan, citing provocation
- cs702 4y agoNot coincidentally: TSMC in talks with suppliers over first European plant: https://www.reuters.com/technology/tsmc-talks-with-suppliers-over-first-european-plant-ft-2022-12-23/ https://www.reuters.com/technology/tsmc-talks-with-suppliers... TSMC ups its Arizona chipmaking investment to $40 billion: https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/06/business/tsmc-arizona-investment/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/06/business/tsmc-arizona-investm...
- api 4y agoIt's absolutely foolish for the US not to offer open immigration to anyone in Taiwan without a felony conviction, or even without one in the past 10 years. Best way to deal with this without risking US troops or risking WWIII is to just drain the island of all its talent and ambition. Same goes for Russia. We should be offering open immigration to anyone fleeing Russia who passes a security check. Drain Putin's brains. Brain drain from Nazi Germany and the USSR were arguably factors that propelled the US to superpower status in the 20th century.
- jorvi 4y ago> .. is to just drain the island of all its talent and ambition. What an extremely callous and deeply cold-hearted thing to say about an ally. Imagine someone said that about the US?
- api 4y agoI should have qualified that with: if China is actually going to invade and we can’t stop them. I don’t think you are going to convince the US leadership to go to war directly against a nuclear power for Taiwan. They won’t for Ukraine either. If Taiwan can resist like Ukraine they will supply Taiwan, but China is considerably stronger and more advanced than Russia. I don’t think that level of resistance is likely. If I were Taiwanese I’d rather have the option of having a good place to go as an alternative to forceful subjugation by a totalitarian power.
- yongjik 4y agoSo you want America to publicly declare that it will not lift a finger to defend its ally, and instead skim the top of the cream of Taiwanese society and leave their friends and relatives to die in war? If the Taiwanese wanted to defend their country they should have learned to do it themselves, ha ha. Imagine what kind of message this sends to people of Japan, South Korea, or Poland.
- ashwagary 4y ago>So you want America to publicly declare that it will not lift a finger to defend its ally >Imagine what kind of message this sends to people of Japan, South Korea, or Poland. An honest one.
- scarmig 4y agoThe message everyone hears from that is that if your country is threatened by an aggressive power, we'll give it up but let you flee it and come to us. That's... not reassuring for allies.
- dogma1138 4y agoTSMC being essentially exclusive to Taiwan when it comes to leading edge nodes is paramount to the national security of Taiwan there is no way that the Taiwanese government would allow them to diversify. TSMC is has been teasing both the US and the EU but they aren’t going to move anything substantial out of Taiwan.
- albertopv 4y agoASML is essential to chip manufacturing and it's european, what about EU restricting exports for security reasons if Taiwan do the same? I don't think chip factories will save Taiwan from chinese war, too much nationalism fueled by communist party and too weak economy in long term.
- dogma1138 4y agoThey very much serve as a trip wire defense. Taiwan famously has a scorched earth policy in regards to its own industry and they will physically destroy manufacturing plants and IP if they’ll ever be invaded. This is done to both deter China and to push the west put their support behind Taiwan. So there is zero analogy to ASML, Zeiss and a few other European players that are critical to the SC industry.
- albertopv 4y agoI think one day or another China will attack Taiwan anyway, scorched earth policy or west support (which to an island will be extremely difficult) are irrelevant, and so is Taiwan tech export policy.
- blippage 4y agoSounds like when Russia is finished doing what they're doing, China is next up to bat. Happy 2023, everyone.
- tosc 4y agoThere is no ‘finished’. We’ve always been at war with Eastasia.
- selectodude 4y agoYou’re right, if we do nothing, everything will be OK. Just look at Ukraine. They left Russia alone, and Russia left them alone
- jjoonathan 4y agoHey, the Russians just want a bit of lebensraum! How could appeasement possibly go wrong?
- tosc 4y agoWho said anything about doing nothing? Why not just accept that there’s been a Cold War going on all along and we’ve just been pretending otherwise.
- FpUser 4y agoDid Eastasia "always" attack you?
- rapsey 4y agoKey differences: * Russia has spent years financially divorcing itself from the West. China has no economy without the West. Being an energy exporter makes you much more independent than being a manufacturer. * Taiwan is an island. Invading an island is a much harder task. Also very questionable if they actually have the ship capacity to transfer enough troops. You can't just trickle them in. * The way Ukraine/Russia conflict is going is likely giving them pause.
- ww520 4y agoIt’s act tough when you’re weak.
- manimals 4y agoI know it’s the social-popular thing, shit on their behavior and all - but this is just plain wrong. China is building up, they’re the real historical successor the “it’s Hitler all over again” rather than Russia (maybe they get to be Italy?) Not only that, but “tough” animals will signal greatly their desire to fight before engaging in the actual fight to intimidate their opposition. The actual fight will come at great cost regardless of power. Hard times coming our way…
- squaresmile 4y ago> China is building up Yeah, you have to start building experience from somewhere. The Chinese Navy is both building many ships [0] (of which many would argue are among the most advanced in the world) and building operational experience [1] [2] [3]. While the Chinese Navy lacks actual combat experience, training if done properly can be very effective in its own right. It's only reasonable that the second largest economy in the world could sustain this level of development. China has the means and the will to build a very formidable navy. Information coming from China can be suspect and I understand why some think their navy is a paper tiger. However, their ships are very real and their training exercises are also real, all sighted and confirmed by other navies. It's probably best to not underestimate their capability. [0] https://sgp.fas.org/crs/row/RL33153.pdf https://sgp.fas.org/crs/row/RL33153.pdf go to page 12 [1] https://news.usni.org/2022/05/23/chinese-carrier-strike-group-now-operating-in-east-china-sea https://news.usni.org/2022/05/23/chinese-carrier-strike-grou... [2] https://news.usni.org/2022/12/19/chinese-liaoning-carrier-strike-group-now-operating-in-the-philippine-sea https://news.usni.org/2022/12/19/chinese-liaoning-carrier-st... [3] https://news.usni.org/2022/12/23/russian-chinese-warships-hold-drill-in-east-china-sea-chinese-carrier-strike-group-steams-in-philippine-sea https://news.usni.org/2022/12/23/russian-chinese-warships-ho...
- AntoniusBlock 4y ago
- ETHisso2017 4y agoWorth noting that these drills aren't really newsworthy. They occur in international waters, have been ongoing since 2019, and are smaller than the drills the US has conducted in the South China Sea.
- Beaver117 4y agoOk? And Russia had been threatening to invade Ukraine since 2014. It can change drastically overnight.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- LawTalkingGuy 4y agoThey didn't conduct "invade and colonize China" exercises. It's somewhat like the difference between carrying a weapon and brandishing it threateningly.
- marianatom 4y agoChina's current state - Complete shutdown of all businesses not related to pharmacy or hospital, probably until April 2023. This includes factories. Check out on the ground videos by https://www.youtube.com/@xiaorenwu/videos https://www.youtube.com/@xiaorenwu/videos, you will see completely empty malls, subways, and streets. Not only that, you will note all the anger from normal citizens, which is only really publicly visible this year. EDIT: the shutdown is either mandated by city, or voluntarily by the merchant, since nobody is traveling out to shop in fear of contracting covid. - Few hundred thousand small and mid size business closures/bankruptcies. China does not provide small business relief like US did, so these closures are permanent. - 37 million covid infections per day https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-23/china-estimates-covid-surge-is-infecting-37-million-people-a-day https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-23/china-est..., millions of death per day that overwhelms the morgue. Keep in mind their vaccine is ineffective, and re-infection likely to last throughout 2023 - Market laggards like Apple finally moving out of China, and the rest of manufacturing laggards to follow - Multinational consumer product companies moving out of China or reducing footprint - Real estate collapse still unresolved - Demographics collapse still unresolved - Total debt still unresolved - Closer alliance with Russia, and alienation from democratic countries. QUAD, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Europe all are aligning against China and Russia now. So China's only card it can play is, being as sick as it is for at least a year more, is to be a paper tiger. and threatens with empty promise.
- gsatic 4y agoSome people were saying similar things during the Hong Kong protests. We know how that turned out.
- antifanboy 4y ago[dead]
- markdown 4y ago> So China's only card it can play is, being as sick as it is for at least a year more, is to be a paper tiger. and threatens with empty promise. Everything you wrote before this, and in particular "you will note all the anger from normal citizens" is reason enough to worry that this time it might be more than an empty promise. China may end up needing more than sabre rattling to distract its citizens this time.
- antifanboy 4y ago[dead]
- AndrewKemendo 4y agoChina is thrashing while the rest of East Asia is starting to feel confident Look at Japanese Bonds, Look at Taiwanese resolve, look at Korean growth - Chinese citizens are starting to recognize that the only thing the CCP has left is fear and domination and they aren't going to support it anymore So the CCP are going to freak out and start acting crazy, in a (hopefully) futile attempt to get people to react so they can mobilize domestically around national pride. I trust that the Taiwanese people have the resolve, and the US has the resolve to support them in their resistance to these tantrums without overreacting.
- asakusaa 4y agoEast Asia after a period of sustained growth is experiencing serious headwinds. Japan: Japanese bonds is taking a breather but a continued strengthening of USD will put serious risk of currency devaluation and its stock market is largely owned by the Japanese central banks. Taiwan: Not good. DPP made a major election mistake by ignoring that many Taiwanese want to keep the status quo as the reality of their security situation hits-If the US and coalition wanted to defend Taiwan it would start building military bases, so far all they've done is the same approach to Ukraine-talk them over the edge and when conflict breaks out supply them with severely limited weaponry to not escalate risk by being directly involved. Korea: Major 3ish sigma event coming to its household debt, pension pyramid scheme blowing up, municipal and government bonds tied to a rapidly deflating real estate bubble, the loss of China, its biggest trading partner, responsible for a huge chunk of its GDP. With increased competition from Taiwan's TSMC and its status as a sort of canary in the mine for global trade activity, all of this is creating a perfect storm. But the biggest punch will be its birth rate and it will be forced to turn to uptaking massive number of migrant workers, possible north korean collapse. I would grade Korea to be the first piece of the domino to trigger another Asian Financial Crisis. This time with much reduced bargaining chip as globalization is being phased out and you see all the investments being made outside their respective countries. China: Major policy errors have put CCP in an impossible place. It's increasingly looking like Russia prior to invading Ukraine. Rapidly declining economy and aging population with accelerating low birth rate. They will not wait until Japan has finished building up its military. There's an angle to this lockdown system in that its a major way to mobilize and isolate large chunks of the population and unfortunately combined with the surveillance apparatus (the largest internal security on earth) and low morale amongst its people contribute to even more urgency to begin conflict.
- metadat 4y agoArchive links: https://archive.ph/rILqX https://archive.ph/rILqX https://web.archive.org/web/20221225173355/https://archive.ph/rILqX https://web.archive.org/web/20221225173355/https://archive.p...
- mach1ne 4y agoChina’s economy is slowing down long-term. This means that there is likely no longer sufficient constant increase in standards of living to keep the populace happy with the Party. A natural alternative for authoritarian regimes to keep their people in check is to nurture strong nationalism. This nationalism eventually tends to eat its own creators by pushing the leaders to declare war.
- cagenut 4y agoyea but they still manage to get re-elected and stay rich and show their paintings on morning shows
- enkid 4y agoI mean, that's a theory I have heard, and subscribed too, but what's an actual example of this occurring in history? Nationalism and aggression was baked into Nazi Germany and Italy from the get go. Japan went to war in China in the 1930s not because of a ruling clique that wanted to maintain power, but because of the rogue actions of military officers. The subsequent declaration of war was about losing in China vs. internal political pressure. The USSR's invasions of it's neighbors in the 20s through the 40s ( and then periodically in the Cold War) went unpunished until it collapsed. It's invasion of Afghanistan might fit, but that wasn't driven by Nationalism, but rather by a Marxist view of history. Saddam's invasion of Kuwait didn't lead to his downfall, that was more his incident lie that he had WMDs. Portugal and Spain had Nationalist governments well into the 70s that seemed pretty stable. The only example I can really think of is maybe Serbia during the break up of Yugoslavia? But that hardly feels like a generalizable example.
- bigcat12345678 4y ago[flagged]
- UIUC_06 4y ago> Please just ban such topic Whoa, resorting to censorship now.
- bigcat12345678 4y agoLaughed here HN routinely reject low quality posts. If for a certain topic, the quality is so bad that allowing it just further drags the whole community, then it's reasonable to ban. Like you don't want 3 years old to fight over who should be next us president. That's not censorship, that's cultivating intellectual rigor
- UIUC_06 4y ago"low quality" means "CCP doesn't like it?" Let's suppose, hypothetically, that you wanted to demonstrate that you're not a CCP troll. What opinions do you have that contradict the CCP's position? (I don't mean nuanced but safe ones like "they should have dropped the zero-COVID policy sooner" either.)
- bigcat12345678 4y agoThat's in your framing Good luck with that
- UIUC_06 4y agoOkey, dokey, then. You can't do it, I guess.
- bigcat12345678 4y ago[flagged]
- greggarious 4y agoHow can you cite provocation to hold a drill, unless the "drill" is an attempt at intimidation? Drills are done by the military, in secret, to prepare for war, not blasted with a PR pitch to a sympathetic news organization willing to repeat the demands of terrorists and totalitarians. The PRC's aggressive disregard for the exclusive economic zones of it's neighbors, paired with backing Russia's travesties in the Ukraine have has erased any goodwill that their refusal to participate in the Iraq War may have generated over ten years ago. It is now utterly transparent that their goal is to greedily gobble up the foundries of those who invent their own technology rather than steal it and invest those R&D savings in weapons they can then leverage to further coerce the smaller and more vulnerable.
- nradov 4y agoLarge military drills like this are never secret. They're impossible to really hide.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]